Infrastructure is one of the foundations on which economies are built. It’s essential for meeting the needs of growing and ageing populations, it has a role to play in the defence build-outs that are required in a more volatile geopolitical environment, and its increasingly critical to the energy and climate transitions. New research from Aberdeen suggests at least $64 trillion will need to be spent on infrastructure globally over the next 25 years. Paul Diggle is joined by Robert Gilhooly and S...
Jun 25, 2025•19 min
The Trump administration is pursuing a significant fiscal expansion with its “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. But with long-term bond yields rising, and Section 899 potentially making the US a less attractive place to invest, investor appetite to finance the US deficit may be waning. Paul and Luke discuss the size of the deficit increase, whether tariff revenue can offset tax cuts, and what Elon Musk leaving DOGE means for fiscal policy.
Jun 11, 2025•24 min
The Argentinian economy has a history going back decades of chronically low growth, high inflation, and successive crises. However, President Javier Milei’s “shock therapy” of fiscal spending cuts, peso devaluation, and an IMF package, appear to be turning things around. The economy has returned to growth; inflation, while still high, has fallen sharply; and Argentina is gradually returning to international capital markets. Paul and Luke speak to Tettey Addy, emerging market analyst at Aberdeen,...
May 29, 2025•22 min
The US and China have significantly, albeit temporarily, reduced tariff rates. And the US has started to make tariff deals with other countries too, beginning with the UK. So does this mean that economic and market concerns about the trade war were overblown? Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Bob Gilhooly about why US-China decoupling is still a long term trend, what next for tariff levels, and how much progress the US administration is making on its other priorities including tax cuts....
May 16, 2025•32 min
The US has long been economically “exceptional”, with its high growth rate, dominant technology companies, and as the provider of the global safe asset and reserve currency. However, Trump’s tariffs, a possible growth slowdown, and deeper institutional disfunction, could all endanger aspects of this. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether US exceptionalism is over, whether the US is becoming a structurally less attractive destination for capital, and if the global dollar standard is over....
May 01, 2025•31 min
President Trump has announced an enormous increase in US tariffs on the rest of the world. But is this a negotiating tactic that will see tariffs fall over time, or a permanent feature of the new global trading system? And given that most investors’ worst case tariff scenario has transpired, what other major shocks could these moves catalyse? Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss the design of the reciprocal tariff regime, the possible economic impact on the US, and how things might get bette...
Apr 09, 2025•28 min
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced spending cuts to restore headroom against the government’s fiscal rules. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the welfare cuts the government has announced, how vulnerable the UK fiscal position is to tariffs and other shocks, and the possibility of future tax increases.
Mar 27, 2025•17 min
US consumer and business sentiment has fallen significantly recently in response to extremely elevated policy uncertainty with some indicators pointing to elevated recession risks. Luke Bartholomew speaks to James McCann about the sudden deterioration in economic sentiment and how reliable this is as guide to future growth, the current state of play on tariff policy, the impact of DOGE on the job market, and how interest rates might revolve in response to the various shocks hitting the economy....
Mar 11, 2025•32 min
The CDU-CSU has emerged as the largest party from the German federal elections, and Friedrich Merz will almost certainly become the next Chancellor at the head of a coalition government. But Germany faces profound economic and geopolitical headwinds, amid a contracting industrial sector and a chaotic European security situation. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about Merz’s economic agenda, whether debt brake reform is possible, and if this is the last-chance saloon for t...
Feb 26, 2025•26 min
Much like the effects of the French revolution, it may be too early to tell the long-term economic impacts of Brexit. UK growth and investment have almost certainly been lower, and inflation higher, than otherwise. But as President Trump threatens to tear up the global trading system including targeting the EU with tariffs, and European regulation risks stifling the growth benefits of AI, Paul and Luke discuss how the lasting economic consequences of Brexit are still playing out.
Feb 13, 2025•23 min
Investors can be forgiven for having tariff whiplash, after the threat and then temporary reprieve of 25% US tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and the implementation of additional 10% tariffs on China. Paul and Luke speak to James McCann, Bob Gilhooly, and Lizzy Galbraith from the abrdn economics team about the thinking behind President Trump’s tariff strategy, the economic and monetary policy impacts, and what this all tells us about Trump’s broader agenda.
Feb 06, 2025•35 min
The US dollar is rising as investors price in Trump’s policy platform of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation. But key members of the new US administration want to see a weaker dollar to boost domestic manufacturing. Paul and Luke discuss this fundamental dilemma at the heart of the new administration’s economic policy, and how the US may exercise its full array of hard power tools to achieve economic, political, and territorial objectives.
Jan 30, 2025•28 min
Elon Musk is set to join the Trump administration as head of the Department of Government Efficiency. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith about the role and influence that Musk and DOGE may have over US fiscal policy, regulation, foreign policy, and the broader Trump agenda.
Jan 20, 2025•28 min
The coming year is going to see more economic and geopolitical volatility for investors to navigate. Paul asks members of the abrdn economic research team to outline the big questions they are asking as we head into 2025 – including President-elect Trump’s policy choices, the prospect of ceasefires in Ukraine and the Middle East, and whether the UK Chancellor will be back with more tax increases.
Dec 09, 2024•24 min
We need to talk about debt. Global government debt is approaching 100% of global GDP. And the incoming Trump administration may be about to increase the large US fiscal deficit still further. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss whether the infamous bond vigilantes will return, pushing up government borrowing costs amid fears of debt sustainability.
Nov 28, 2024•31 min
A Trump presidency will have important implications for tax and spending, immigration, trade policy, and regulation. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by James McCann and Lizzy Galbraith to discuss the likely tax cuts and spending measures that Trump may pursue, the prospect of a global trade war, and what all this means for monetary policy and financial markets.
Nov 07, 2024•23 min
Labour’s first budget was a big one – new fiscal rules, large tax and spend increases, and a big rise in investment. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to break down the measures, and assess what they mean for the UK’s economic, political and market outlook.
Nov 01, 2024•23 min
After months of piecemeal economic policy support, Chinese stimulus has stepped up significantly and equity markets have surged higher. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to Robert Gilhooly about the headwinds the Chinese economy has been facing, the risks of China slipping into ‘Japanification’, and whether recent measures represent a turning point in monetary and fiscal policy support.
Oct 17, 2024•23 min
Markets are facing an array of potential risks - from the imminent US election, narrow leadership in equity markets, and spiking tensions in the Middle East. Paul and Luke speak to Carl Hazeley from Finimize about how retail investors are navigating the economic and market landscape, and how financial institutions can support this increasingly sophisticated group of investors.
Oct 03, 2024•25 min
Economies are built on infrastructure. But stretched public finances mean the state is increasingly looking to the private sector to help fund infrastructure. Climate change, technological progress, and geopolitics are changing the sort of infrastructure we need. And building physical infrastructure can be fraught with hurdles from the planning process. On this episode, Paul Diggle speaks with Bridget Rosewell, board member of the UK Infrastructure Bank and former Commissioner of the National In...
Sep 19, 2024•31 min
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget on 30 October. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew ask whether Labour have been talking the UK economy down as the government manages expectations ahead of potential tax increases, and whether markets should be concerned about possible accounting changes to the way Bank of England losses are treated in the public finances.
Sep 05, 2024•26 min
A weak US jobs report reignited concerns about a US recession, and a surprisingly large Bank of Japan rate hike causes a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Together, these sent shockwaves through financial markets. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew speak to James McCann and Sree Kochugovindan about whether “this time is different” for US recession indicators, what the resignation of Prime Minister Kishida means for the Bank of Japan, and the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy.
Aug 22, 2024•33 min
We frequently discuss globalisation, political volatility, geo-political competition, and technological change on this podcast. But how can investors play these trends? Paul Diggle talks to Blair Couper and Jamie Mills-O’Brien, equity fund managers at abrdn, about thematic investing.
Jul 23, 2024•29 min
The UK general election delivered a large Labour majority, while the French second round vote has resulted in a fragmented parliament and in the US, President Biden’s grip on the Democratic nomination may be slipping. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew are joined by Lizzy Galbraith to discuss what these political developments mean for investors, including whether Labour can boost UK growth, the structural challenges facing France, and what a Trump presidency might mean for markets....
Jul 10, 2024•28 min
France is heading to the polls in snap election, and markets are concerned about a potential large fiscal expansion. Paul and Luke speak to Lizzy Galbraith and Felix Feather about why Macron’s gamble doesn’t seem to be paying off, the chances that the next government enacts a large fiscal expansion, questions of France’s membership in the Eurozone, and whether comparisons with the UK’s “Liz Truss moment” are appropriate.
Jun 27, 2024•33 min
China has become a global EV superpower in very short order, with major macroeconomic repercussions. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith and Robert Gilhooly about how China overtook the US as the world’s pre-eminent manufacturer of electric vehicles, the ways in which this is changing the course of the Chinese economy, and why this is amplifying trade tensions with the US and Europe.
Jun 13, 2024•31 min
The snap UK general election on July 4th is very likely to result in a Labour government. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew talk to Lizzy Galbraith about what this might mean for the economy – from fiscal policy and planning reform, to green industrial policy and the approach to the EU.
May 31, 2024•30 min
The US dollar is different to every other currency. The dollar is the global reserve asset, and its dominant status means dollar strength has important global spillovers. Paul and Luke discuss why the dollar has been appreciating recently, why this matters, how the dollar became so important, the benefits and drawbacks this brings to the US, and why a potential second Trump presidency could drop the US’s long standing commitment to a strong dollar.
May 17, 2024•24 min
The traditional trade engine of globalisation has stalled or is even heading into reverse. But the globalisation of information, capital and people is still powering on. Nevertheless, even these aspects of globalisation are facing an increasingly hostile political and policy environment, including a potential Trump Presidency and ongoing US-China tensions. Paul Diggle speaks to James McCann about the nature of “globalisation 3.0”, and what it means for the economic outlook and financial markets....
May 02, 2024•33 min
The global macroeconomic and geopolitical environment is filled with risks around inflation, interest rates, and instability in the Middle East. Paul Diggle and Luke Bartholomew discuss how scenario analysis can help investors to navigate uncertainty. They also consider the Bernanke review of the Bank of England’s forecasting process, which includes a recommendation to make greater use of scenarios.
Apr 18, 2024•26 min
