Why Every Brain Metaphor in History Has Been Wrong [SPECIAL EDITION] - podcast episode cover

Why Every Brain Metaphor in History Has Been Wrong [SPECIAL EDITION]

Jan 23, 202642 min
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Summary

This special edition episode delves into the history of scientific simplification, questioning whether our understanding of the brain is based on forgotten metaphors. Featuring insights from top thinkers like Karl Friston, Mazviita Chirimuuta, Francois Chollet, and John Jumper, the discussion examines the "spherical cow problem," the "kaleidoscope hypothesis," and the implications of viewing the mind as software. It explores the tension between prediction and understanding, the perceived inevitability of AGI, and the limits of human cognition, prompting listeners to consider what we might find naive about our current assumptions in the future.

Episode description

What if everything we think we know about the brain is just a really good metaphor that we forgot was a metaphor?This episode takes you on a journey through the history of scientific simplification, from a young Karl Friston watching wood lice in his garden to the bold claims that your mind is literally software running on biological hardware.We bring together some of the most brilliant minds we've interviewed — Professor Mazviita Chirimuuta, Francois Chollet, Joscha Bach, Professor Luciano Floridi, Professor Noam Chomsky, Nobel laureate John Jumper, and more — to wrestle with a deceptively simple question: *When scientists simplify reality to study it, what gets captured and what gets lost?**Key ideas explored:**The Spherical Cow Problem* — Science requires simplification. We're limited creatures trying to understand systems far more complex than our working memory can hold. But when does a useful model become a dangerous illusion?*The Kaleidoscope Hypothesis* — Francois Chollet's beautiful idea that beneath all the apparent chaos of reality lies simple, repeating patterns — like bits of colored glass in a kaleidoscope creating infinite complexity. Is this profound truth or Platonic wishful thinking?*Is Software Really Spirit?* — Joscha Bach makes the provocative claim that software is literally spirit, not metaphorically. We push back on this, asking whether the "sameness" we see across different computers running the same program exists in nature or only in our descriptions.*The Cultural Illusion of AGI* — Why does artificial general intelligence seem so inevitable to people in Silicon Valley? Professor Chirimuuta suggests we might be caught in a "cultural historical illusion" — our mechanistic assumptions about minds making AI seem like destiny when it might just be a bet.*Prediction vs. Understanding* — Nobel Prize winner John Jumper: AI can predict and control, but understanding requires a human in the loop. Throughout history, we've described the brain as hydraulic pumps, telegraph networks, telephone switchboards, and now computers. Each metaphor felt obviously true at the time. This episode asks: what will we think was naive about our current assumptions in fifty years?Featuring insights from *The Brain Abstracted* by Mazviita Chirimuuta — possibly the most influential book on how we think about thinking in 2025.---TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 The Wood Louse & The Spherical Cow00:02:04 The Necessity of Abstraction00:04:42 Simplicius vs. Ignorantio: The Boxing Match00:06:39 The Kaleidoscope Hypothesis00:08:40 Is the Mind Software?00:13:15 Critique of Causal Patterns00:14:40 Temperature is Not a Thing00:18:24 The Ship of Theseus & Ontology00:23:45 Metaphors Hardening into Reality00:25:41 The Illusion of AGI Inevitability00:27:45 Prediction vs. Understanding00:32:00 Climbing the Mountain vs. The Helicopter00:34:53 Haptic Realism & The Limits of Knowledge---REFERENCES:Person:[00:00:00] Karl Friston (UCL)https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/1236-karl-friston[00:06:30] Francois Chollethttps://fchollet.com/[00:14:41] Cesar Hidalgo, MLST interview.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vzpFOJRteeI[00:30:30] Terence Tao's Bloghttps://terrytao.wordpress.com/Book:[00:02:25] The Brain Abstractedhttps://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262548045/the-brain-abstracted/[00:06:00] On Learned Ignorancehttps://www.amazon.com/Nicholas-Cusa-learned-ignorance-translation/dp/0938060236[00:24:15] Science and the Modern Worldhttps://amazon.com/dp/0684836394<truncated, see ReScript>


RESCRIPT:https://app.rescript.info/public/share/CYy0ex2M2kvcVRdMnSUky5O7H7hB7v2u_nVhoUiuKD4PDF Transcript: https://app.rescript.info/api/public/sessions/6c44c41e1e0fa6dd/pdf

Thank you to Dr. Maxwell Ramstead for early script work on this show (Ph.D student of Friston) and the woodlice story came from him!

Transcript

The Free Energy Principle and Simplification

A

Let me tell you a little story. Nineteen sixties, in the summer, a little kid named Carl was playing around in the back of his garden and he noticed all of these wood lice crawling around, you know, the little insects that can curl up into a ball. And what he noticed was that depending on whether they were in the sun or in the shade, they would move faster or slower. They behaved differently. And that's it.

Carl grew up to be Professor Carl Fristen, one of the most cited neuroscientists alive. He's been on this channel before more times than I can count, and that childhood observation about wood lice It never left him. He spent decades developing what he calls the free energy principle. which tries to explain all of behavior with one equation. Perception, action, learning, why you scratch your nose, all of it, Friston claims,

comes down to minimizing a single mathematical quantity. There's an old physics joke. Assume that we can model a spherical cowl in a vacuum. The joke is about how scientists grotesquely simplify messy reality to tame it. The free energy principle might be the ultimate sphere of the. cow. It promises to explain self-organization, this bewilderingly complicated phenomenon, with something so emaciated we might as well call it tautological.

Even Priston himself agrees with this by the way. This is what he said to us last time we spoke with him.

J

The free energy principle is not meant to be complicated or difficult to understand. It's actually, you know, almost tautologically simple. Um So th the your the whole free energy principle is just basically a principle of least action pertaining to density dynamics, the the of the dynamics or the evolution of not densities but conditional densities. That's just it. Yes, it's before thermodynamics, it's before quantum mechanics, it's just about conditional probability distributions.

Science as Abstraction and Human Endeavor

A

So what do we do with this? Has Friston actually found some deep truth about how mines work? Or is he doing what many scientists do, which is mistaking the simplification for the actual thing. Well it turns out there's a philosopher who has spent an incredible amount of time thinking about this exact problem. Professor Marvita Chiramuta teaches at Edinburgh University.

Her book, The Brain Abstracted, is basically about what happens when neuroscientists simplify brains to study them. What gets captured? What gets lost.

D

One of the answers that might seem obvious to people is that we pursue science because we're curious. We just want to know how the world works. We want to reveal, discover the underlying principles of the universe which apply in all cases. switching off the idea that you're just interested in nature for its own sake out of curiosity and saying, Okay, how can we engineer these systems to actually do things that we want? getting them to behave in artificial ways.

If those simplifications sort of allow you to achieve your technological goals, there's no in principle problem with oversimplification if you're gonna say, I'm not just interested in nature for its own sake, I just want applied science.

A

I should say by the way that the brain abstracted probably influenced my thinking more in twenty twenty-five than anything else. She's an inspirational lady. I look up to her very much. And certainly thinking back on many of the episodes we've done in twenty twenty-five, I can see her influence. in the questions I ask and how I think about things.

So here's her starting point. Scientists have to simplify. We're limited creatures trying to wrap our heads around systems way more complex than we can actually comprehend. Our working memory holds maybe seven items. Our attention is more scattered than a group of toddlers with iPads. Um we die after eighty years if we're lucky.

So we build models, right? We leave stuff out on purpose. We tell ourselves stories about how the world works. But the question is, why does any of this even work at all?

E

Science is a humanistic endeavor. Right. The purpose of science in the universe is to make the universe intelligible to us. Not to control it. not to predict it and not to exploit it. Now you can do all those wonderful things if you like, but in the end, as far as I'm concerned, uh science is no different from poetry, is that we're trying to make sense of the world. trying to give it meaning uh in relation to our own existence.

Debating Nature's Fundamental Simplicity

A

If you'll allow the indulgence, I want to tell a little story. It's a boxing match in the red corner, Simplicious. He thinks science works because the universe is actually simple underneath. Find an elegant equation and you've hit the real thing. Simplicity tells you that you're on the right track.

And in the blue corner, Ignorantio. He thinks we simplify because we're too dumb to do otherwise. Our models work well enough for our purposes, but they're approximations, just useful fictions, if you like. The map, not the territory. Now both of them agree that scientists need to simplify, but where they disagree is what that means about reality. Simplicius had history on his side.

or at least a certain type of history. Galileo, Newton, Einstein, they all believed pretty explicitly that nature was fundamentally orderly and that finding simple laws meant you'd found something true. Einstein famously said, God doesn't play dice and no, he didn't actually think God had anything to do with it, but he was expressing faith that the universe is at the very bottom

Legible. Now Chiramuta has gone all in on Ignorantio's position. She thinks successful science tells us we've become good at building useful simplifications, and that doesn't prove that nature is simple. The philosopher Nicholas of Cusa had a phrase for this attitude doctor ignorantia basically learned ignorance. You study hard, you learn a lot, and what you learn includes

What you don't know. Now when we interviewed Chirimut, she'd been following Francois Cholet's videos, and for those of you who don't know, Francois is a friend of the channel, he's our mascot, he's one of my heroes, and um he's got this idea called the kaleidoscope hypothesis, which is basically that

Francois Chollet's Kaleidoscope Hypothesis

The universe is made out of code and underneath all of the apparent gnarly mess that we see there is intrinsic underlying structure.

H

Everyone knows where the kaleidoscope is, right? It's like this uh cardboard tube with a few bits of colored glass in it. These uh these just like few bits of uh uh original information get uh mirrored and repeated and transformed and they create uh this tremendous richness.

Of complex patterns. You know, it's it's beautiful. The kaleidoscope hypothesis is this idea that the world in general and any domain in particular, follows the same structure that it appears on the surface to be uh extremely rich and complex and uh infinitely novel with every passing moment, but in reality it is made from the repetition and composition of just a few atoms of meaning.

A big part of intelligence is the process of mining your experience of the world to identify bits that are repeated. um and to extract them, extract these unique atoms of meaning. Uh when we extract them we call them abstractions.

A

Now she's not saying that Cholet is wrong, she's saying that he's making a philosophical bet.

Might be right, might be wrong.

A

It's the same bet that Plato made.

D

Seeing that as a philosopher, I thought, that's Plato, because Francois precisely says, We have the world of appearance. It's complicated, it looks intractable, it's messy, but underlying that real reality is neat Um mathematical decomposable.

A

I feel like I should defend Cholet a little bit here, because obviously we love Cholet. He's not making any weird metaphysical claims. At least I don't think he is. If scientific theories actually explained reality the way it is, you would expect fewer U-turns.

The Brain as Software Metaphor

Now the biggest simplification in the 21st century, the final boss of simplifications, is this idea that the mind is a computer or that the mind is running a software program. So we have inputs, we have processing, we have an output. This metaphor has become so established in the collective zeitgeist that no one even questions it anymore. It barely even registers in our brains as a metaphor. So is it or isn't it?

Isn't it a little bit weird that computation is this abstract formalism, like, you know, an an automata that makes these state transitions, something completely non physical, and we're describing the mind as if it is that abstract thing.

That sounds a little bit weird. There are many movies made about this who talk about uploading their minds into the matrix. Neuralink talks about interfacing with your brain's software. Yosha Bach thinks that consciousness is a software program running on your brain.

G

That this is the universal, that you have these invariances in nature, that you can have patterns that have causal power, that have the ability to reproduce themselves, that have the ability to shape reality. uh are invariances that you cannot simply explain more simply by looking at what atoms are doing in space.

But you have to look at these abstract patterns to make sense of them. Every other explanation is going to be more complicated in the same way as money is going to be impossibly complicated if you try to reduce it to atoms. So you have to look at these causal invariances and spirits are actually such causal invariances. They are actually disembodied, right? They they're not bodies. They're not stuff in space.

And they're not mechanisms in the same way, but they're causal mechanisms, abstract mechanisms. And so we put the spirit back into nature. Using the concept of software. A lot of people think that's metaphorical, but I don't think it's metaphorical at all. It's the literal truth. Software is spirit.

A

We're all just talking about this stuff without even batting an eyelid. Like, where's the skepticism, man? It just sounds so plausible to us, so we assume that it just kind of has to be the case.

G

There is something super interesting about computers. What a computer ultimately is, is it's a causal insulator. The computer is a a layer on which you can produce an arbitrary reality. For instance, the world of Minecraft. You can walk around in the world of Minecraft. And it's running very well on a Mac and it's running very well on a PC and if you're inside of the world you don't know what you're running on.

And it's not going to have any information about the nature of the CPU that it's on, the color of the casing of the computer, the voltage that the computer is running on, the place that the computer is standing in in the parent universe, but our universe. So the um computer is insulating this world of Minecraft from our world. It makes it possible that an arbitrary world is happening inside of this box.

And our brain is also such a causal insulator. It's possible for us to have thoughts that are independent of what happens around us. Right? We can envision a future that is not much tainted by the present. we can remember a past that is independent from the present in which we are. And that's necessary for us. Our compu uh brain has evolved as such a causal insulator as well to allow us to

give rise to universes that are different from this one. For instance, future worlds. So we can plan for being in them.

A

Bag says that money is an example of a causal pattern. It's not the ink on a banknote, it's not the electrons in your bank server. It persists across and ensconces in various physical instantiations. So paper, coins, gold, digital ledgers. And yet, they say, money causally affects the world. It gets you fed, it starts wars. It builds cities. He says that software is the same. A program is an abstract pattern that can run on many types of chips, maybe even neurons.

And that pattern has causal power because it controls whatever substrate it's running on. The same algorithm produces the same effects regardless of what physical stuff implements it. So the invariance. That sameness across substrates is the causal mechanism, the pattern itself, at least according to Yosha.

He even accepts that physics is causally closed. He says that the abstract description and the physical description are two ways of looking at the same causal structure. Neither is reducible to the other. Both are real.

Challenging Software as Spirit Metaphysics

But I'm pretty sure Chiramuta would ask who identifies that invariance? When we say the same algorithm runs on different chips. Completely different things are actually physically happening, right? Different voltages, different electrons doing different things. The sameness is something that we impose. It exists in our description, not in nature.

And as for the money example, money only works because of human interpretive practices, right? If you take away the humans and their agreements, it's just paper, right? Money is just paper. And the causal power is actually in the social substrate that participates in it. Now I think Yosha has taken a useful way of talking about complex systems and promoted it to metaphysics.

And that's simplicious all over again, right? Mistaking the elegance of our descriptions for the structure of reality itself. I mean maybe information really is more fundamental than matter, but that's another philosophical wager. And we've made these bets many, many times before. Just look at the history of all of this, so Descartes thought that the nervous system worked like the Automata in French Royal Gardens, fluids pumping through tubes, pushing levers.

That was the high-tech metaphor of his day. Later, when scientists figured out that nerves carry electrical signals, the brain became a telegraph network. Then it was a telephone switchboard, signals traveling down wires. operators routing calls. And now in our era, the brain is a computer.

Understanding Abstract Concepts and Physicality

B

to be precise about what we mean by physical. And everything has to be physical because even GitHub, you know, has to store its data in some sort of hard drive or magnetic field or whatever technology, but it is not storing it in in nothingness. You know? So so knowledge, information always has this form of physical embodiment. Now, I think we tend to

think about it as non physical because it is a thing that is not a thing, which is uh the same as temperature. You wake up, you look at your phone and you see the temperature and you decide how you're gonna dress and nobody has any doubt that temperature is something that can be measured.

But it took about like two thousand years for us, you know, as a species to figure out, you know, what temperature was and the fact that it could be measured. And there were two fundamental difficulties that I would say made it difficult for us to understand you know uh temperature. The first one is that first people thought that hot and cold were two separate things. Okay, so that temperature was like a mixture of the two, like when you make green out of blue and yellow.

Okay.

B

And it took a while for people to understand that cold was the absence of heat and not that cold and heat were two different quantities that were tempered together, they were mixed. So temperature actually mix means mixture, not you know like what we now mean by temperature.

The other thing that was very difficult to understand is that people thought that temperature was a thing. Was some sort of fluid that grabbed onto things. So let's say if you had a steel uh rod that is hot is that steel rod kind of like has this sort of invisible fluid that is heat

And they had good reasons to believe that it was an invisible fluid because it could flow, let's say, you could connect that rod to something that was cold and that cold thing was gonna warm up because that fluid was gonna be flowing in that direction and so forth. So they thought that it had a physicality as a thing.

A brilliant Englishman, Jowl, basically f figures out that that is not the case, that, you know, temperature is not a thing. And the way that they do it is through this observation which I don't know if you know how cannons used to be built, you know? So if you just grab a piece of sheet metal and you make it into a cylinder and you try to make a cannon out of that

The moment exactly that you that you shoot the cannon, that's gonna open up like a flower in a cartoon, you know, like like you know, like a Looney Tunes type of situation. So what they would do is they would make this solid, you know uh cylinders of metal and they would bore a hole in it, you know, uh to create the cannons. And boring those holes released an enormous amount of heat. So Jal thought, well,

How come all of that heat is there? It's like an infinite amount of heat. If I continue to bore a hole in a piece of metal for an infinite amount of time, I'm not gonna it cannot be a thing then. And that, you know, leads him to realize that Temperature is actually something that has to live in things.

But it's not a thing itself is related to the kinetic energy of the particles in the thing. But it's not a thing itself. It doesn't have its own particle. There isn't kinda like a temperature particle. Temperature is kind of like a property that matter has and that holds on to things. Knowledge is similar. You know, in that it holds on to you and to me, you know, and and and to the collective to exist. But it doesn't have kind of like a physicality in itself.

But it always exists in some sort of physical medium or substrate. So in that sense, it's always gonna be physical, no matter how virtual it gets. It has maybe a different type of physicality, but even electromagnetic waves that are transmitting, you know, data uh from your wifi router to your laptop are technically a physical embodiment.

Ontology, Models, and Relational Truths

A

Now I spoke with Professor Luciano Floridi a few years ago and it was actually one of my favourite ever episodes of MLST. I I think very highly of him, which is why we're gonna show some clips of him in in this show, because it's very apropos. But this is what he had to say about it.

C

Oncology, on the other hand, is how we structure the world in the sense that We think that that's the way it is. With the kind of eyes we have and the kind of light uh around the world, that those are the colours we we perceive. But certainly a world full of colors uh is the world which I take it to be the world. That's my ontology. Reonthologizing means changing some of that. of particular nature. Allow me a distinction, so I hope it's not too confusing.

Reality in itself, call it system. Description of reality as we perceive it, enjoy it, conceptualize it, live through, model of the system. Ontology to me is the ontology of the model, it's not the metaphysics of the system. I hope I haven't uh no made a complete mess here, okay? So metaphysics, no menum system, whatever the source of the data that we get, fantastic. The data don't speak about the source. The music of the radio is not about the radio. But there is a radio.

Of course the music is what we perceive. The music has its own ontology, structure, etc. The models. The model is at that point what we enjoy. Why digit the digital revolution has changed the the nature of the world around us, not metaphysically, but ontologically, so the reontologizing. Because some of the things that we have inherited from modernity, a sense of the world that Is now being restructured and a certain understanding of the world, so re-epistemologizing as well, of that world.

We go back to this temptation of talking about reality as if it were something that we need to grasp and portray, uh hook, uh spears. Um when in fact uh the the the way I prefer to uh understand it is as malleable, understandable in a variety of ways, um, something that provides constraints. It doesn't mean that you can interpret in any possible way.

but leaves room for different kind of interpretations. So if the flaw of data that comes from whatever is out there, uh and again I'd rather be sort of uh agnostic about it, can be modelled in a variety of ways. Um one way is to especially twenty first century, given the technology we have, etcetera, to interpret that as no an enormous computational kind of uh environment. It's perfectly fine as long as we don't think that there is our right metaphysics.

is the correct ontology for the twenty first century. Now this is not relativism, because on the other hand, Different models of the same system are comparable depending on why you're developing that particular model. And let me give you a completely trivial example. Suppose you ask me whether that building is the same building. That question has no real answer because it depends on why you're asking their question. If your question is asked because you want to have directions,

I'm gonna say, oh yeah, that's the same building, sir. The same building, yeah, absolutely. No. Go there, turn left, no, traffic lights, uh. But if your question is like same function, as I know it's a completely different building. It was a school, now it's a hospital. Next question. So is it or is it not the same?

B

Then

C

That question is a mistake. an absolute question that provides no interface, what computer scientists call level of abstraction, chosen for one particular purpose so that I can compare whether an answer is better than another. Let me crack a joke for the philosophers who might be listening to this. Is it the same or is it not the same? Who is asking? Why? Because if it is the tax ba the tax man,

You're doomed man. I mean there is no way you can play any Oh, I change every plank that you're gonna pay that tax. It's the same ship. I don't care. But if it is a collector, Their ship is worth zero. You change all the planks, you must be joking. It's worthless. So is it or is it not the same?

depends on why you're asking that particular question. Tell me why, and I can give you the answer. No why, in other words no frame within which we have chosen the interface that provides the model of the system No potential answer. So the question is like: is the universe a computational, gigantic yes or no, meaningless? modeling the universe as a gigantia for the purpose of making sense of our digital life. Oh yes, definitely. Because we are informational organisms. Aha, so metaphysics.

No, I meant in the 21st century the best way of understanding human beings today is as information organisms. Last century we thought that biologically not made much more sense. A lot of water and sprinkle a little bit of that extra. And so on. Mechanism, big art time, etcetera. Not Absolute answers, not relativistic answers, but relational answers, the relation between the question, the purpose, and the actual answer. But it takes three, not two.

Historical Brain Metaphors and Fallacies

A

So the computational model isn't literally true, but it's useful. The mistake is forgetting that it's a model. So the early cybernetics guys, so Wiener and McCulloch and Pitts, they knew that they were working with analogies. McCulloch and Pitts wrote their famous paper showing that neurons could theoretically work like logic gates. Now they weren't claiming neurons actually were logic gates.

but they were using it as a kind of functional description. But somewhere along the way, the metaphor hardened. A lot of neuroscientists today don't say that the brain is like a computer. They say it is one and the metaphor became the thing itself. Now Chiramuta, uh borrowing from Whitehead, by the way, she said that this is the fallacy of misplaced concreteness.

Uh this is another one of those leaky abstractions I was talking about. By the way, there's a great book called um The Brain Abstracted by uh Marvitz Chirimuto I I interviewed recently. And she said that one of the most pervasive myths in neuroscience is that we use these leaky abstractions and idealizations to talk about cognition. And usually it it's using the the most recent technology at the time. So, you know, a few hundred years ago we were describing the brain in terms of pulleys and

K

Bullies and levers, yes.

A

That's right. And and you know, and and then it was um, you know, as a prediction machine, as a computer and all this kind of stuff. This is an example of uh these are grounded things that we understand. They're really good models because we can both talk about computers, we both know what computers are. But the brain doesn't work like that in any sense. Jeff Beck put it even more bluntly when we spoke.

L

will always be the case that our explanation for how the brain works will be by analogy to the most sophisticated technology that we have. Is that how's that for a non answer, right? So So, you know, you know, a couple thousand years ago, right, how'd the brain work? It was like levers and pulleys, man. I mean, duh.

Don't be ridiculous. Why that was the m you know, i at some point in the Middle Ages it became humors, right? Because fluid dynamics was like the you know, w was the kind of technol you know, the technology that was like the most advanced or uh technology that took advantage of Of water power was like the most advanced technology that we had. Now the most advanced technology is computers. So duh, that's exactly how the brain works.

Questioning AGI's Inevitability

A

Now here's something that kinda bugs me, right? You go into any AI conference or you drink from the well of San Francisco by spending too much time on Twitter and you develop this mindset that AGI is inevitable. You start feeling the AGI. And you'd be forgiven for thinking this because I've been using clawed code and my God

I feel that there's been more interesting stuff happening in the world of software development in the last six months than there has been in the previous twenty years. This this technology is genuinely amazing. But it is automation technology. It's it's not really intelligence, which means it it's only really as good as your ability to specify and supervise and delegate to the system. But it is absolutely amazing. But why do we have this view?

D

An argument that AI is impossible so much as why does it seem so possible, so inevitable to people? And saying that. What I'm arguing is that if you look at the history of the development of the life sciences of psychology, there are certain shifts towards a much more mechanistic understanding of both what life is and what the mind is.

which are very congenial to thinking that whatever is going on in animals like us, in terms of the processes which lead to cognition, they're just mechanisms anyway. So why couldn't you put them into an actual machine and have that actual machine do what we do.

So with all that all of that mechanistic history in the background, AI could seem very inevitable, but if that mechanistic hypothesis is is actually wrong, then these claims for the inevitability of a biological like AI would not actually be well founded, but we could be subject to a kind of cultural historical illusion that this is just going to happen.

A

Cultural historical illusion. I've been thinking about that phrase. Um maybe our confidence says more about what we've inherited intellectually than about how minds actually work.

The Duality of Scientific Goals

Now another thing that um Marvitsa has inspired me to think about a lot is the difference between prediction and understanding. Indeed when I interviewed the Nobel Prize winner John Jumper at Google Deep Mind a couple of months ago Um this was the question I asked and he had quite an interesting way of distinguishing those two things. It's almost like it's at any point learning how to refine and optimize the structure.

I

Okay, so we I think we should distinguish three things. Predict, control, understand. First. So predict means that you say, I'm gonna do a thing. What am I gonna, what will be this value of my machine, what will appear on my computer screen in the future? That is predict.

Control is I want to measure this thing in the future and I want it to come out 17. Right? That's control. Understand is a lot like predict, except there's a human in the loop. Understand means that I have such a small collection of facts. That you will predict and you will do it with facts that I can communicate to another human Um in kind of this compact fix fits on an index card. That's almost understand. And so I think these machines led us to

L

Credit.

I

They let us control We have to derive our own understanding at this moment, right? We can experiment now on the artifact. We can look at the two hundred million predicted structures, not just the two hundred thousand experimental structures in order to help us understand, but it doesn't do the act of understanding for us, it does the act of predict and maybe control.

A

The problem is these two goals actually pull against each other.

D

I think we're at this moment in science now because we have these tools like LLMs for language and um convnets and visual neuroscience are being used f um

As predictive models of neuronal responses which don't have that mathematical legibility that originally, so when I was trained in the field, that people aspired to have. And so you have this um m possible conflicts, you can either pursue that goal of understanding or you can pursue the goal of prediction, but it seems like you can't have both at the same time.

A

On the one hand, people go into neuroscience because they want to understand the mind. They want that feeling where something clicks and you suddenly get how it works. That's what drew Tiramuta to the field in the first place. That's what keeps people up late at night reading papers. But on the other hand, there's just prediction, building tools that work. If your model forecasts data accurately, maybe you don't care whether it's true in some deeper sense.

So LLMs are getting unreasonably good. They are winning math Olympiads. They are I mean, as of last week actually, GPT five point two apparently um discovered a new theoret well, it's so it solved one of these problems that Terence Tao had on on his website. This is insane. But does it actually understand anything? And does it matter if it does or doesn't, as long as it works?

Chomsky had an amazing commentary on this a few years ago when we spoke, and I think it's still as relevant today as it was then.

F

Suppose that I submitted an article to a physics journal saying I've got a fantastic new theory and accommodates all the laws of nature, the ones that are known, the ones that have yet to have been discovered, and it's such an elegant theory that I can say it in two words.

anything goes. Okay? That includes all the laws of nature. The ones we know. The ones we do not know yet. Everything. What's the problem? The problem is they're not going to accept the paper because when you have a theory, There are two kinds of questions you have to ask me. Why are things this way? Why are things not that way? If you don't get the second question, you've done nothing. GPT three has done nothing.

A

Classic Chomsky. So maybe theories are overrated, maybe prediction is enough. But Chiramuta worries about that trade off, right? When you give up on understanding you don't know when your tools will break, you're stuck with black boxes. They work until they don't, and you won't see it coming when they don't.

Functionalism, Substrate, and Embodied Cognition

I spoke with philosopher Anna Tunica uh about this recently and she had a beautiful way of describing it.

Suppose you want to climb the mountain.

M

And you arrive on the top of the mountain, what's the argument to say that actually it's only when you're on the top of the mountain that that what the climbing of the mountain is? I mean you cannot really arrive on the top of the mountain if you don't do it for the first step. Every single step matters. First step is as important as the last one. Actually we are more conscious when we

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M

than when we are on the

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M

Shut ourselves in the legs.

A

Of course I brought this up when I debated Mike Israel. And the biggest misconception in all of AI, what all of the folks in San Francisco believe in, is this philosophical idea called functionalism. That we're walking up the mountain. And when we get to the top of the mountain we have all of these abstract capabilities like being able to reason, play chess, but that disregards that the path that you took walking up the mountain is very important. And not only the path.

the physical instantiation, the stuff that the mountain is made out of. So Mike's view is that if something produces intelligent outputs, why does the substrate matter? Silicon, neurons, it doesn't make any difference. It's all information processing. Needless to say, he pushed back hard.

K

You can climb mountains, you can touch stuff, but you never truly embodied experience anything if you push on that philosophical button hard enough. Because you can always abstract out to like these are just neural network pings from groups of neurons. And so you don't truly deeply know anything in some kind of weird philosophical way, because it's just neural network calculus all the way down. You know, you climb the mountain. That's cool.

Helicopter can climb a mountain much better than you, does not have the ability to reason and abstractly and plan and predict things at all.

A

So it's possible that what you can do Or how you can function isn't the whole story. Or maybe if that's wrong, we should just start using helicopters.

Perspectival Knowledge and Cognitive Horizons

So individual minds are limited. But what about collective minds? What about humanity as a whole? We've built this incredible thing over centuries, right? Libraries, universities, Wikipedia, an expanding store of knowledge that no single person could ever hold. Doesn't that escape our individual limitations? So there's this dream of universal knowledge, accessible anywhere, perspective free.

B

There is a tacit and implicit idea there that knowledge is something that something can have. While my view is that noge is a much more colective fenomenal. Okay, so and it's not something also that you can put in something like a book. doesn't have knowledge. The book is an archival record of some ideas that I was able, you know, to put together in a nice structure. But you cannot have a conversation with the book. Knowledge

only can go to work when it's embodied. You cannot throw like, you know, a bunch of engineering manuals and cement into a gorge and expect to get a bridge. Because the books don't have knowledge. Teams have knowledge, organizations have knowledge.

A

Yes, knowledge is social. Communities accomplish what individuals can't. But collective knowledge is still knowledge from somewhere. This matters, right? It's shaped by particular questions, particular tools and particular blind spots.

D

Interesting things about this phenomenon, not only of LLMs, but the internet as this idea that it's the repository of all human knowledge. is that it goes along with this idea almost that knowledge doesn't have to be perspectival. It doesn't have to be like of a place, of a community. It kind of c can float free. Of the situation in which this knowledge was acquired. That's kind of the aspiration of these ideas, sort of of

a universal repository of knowledge. But what this perspectivalist position actually sort of points us to is actually knowledge is inherently of a place, of a community, we acquire knowledge not by s being like completely open minded to everything that's possible to know. But actually by sort of narrowing our view, discounting possibilities actually is what allows you to pursue a line of inquiry and actually pin down

Um, some information about, say, the natural world which is humanly achievable. So the contrast I'm trying to make here is between a view which says that. Knowledge is perspectival. It's inherently from a human point of view, which means that it's inherently finite. We cannot aspire to this sort of universal free-floating knowledge.

Because as finite human beings, we can only achieve knowledge of the world through recognizing our limitations. And this notion of like you can have non perspectival knowledge like everything in the internet. Based on like all of the different possible perspectives, all blended together, that this somehow gives us a God's eye view. LLMs aspire to be this.

like every person voice, but it's precisely because they don't have a particular so s socialization into a finite community that they're not reliable, that we can't pin them down to actually um what would be a sort of honest, trustworthy perspective.

A

So Chiramuta has this idea that she calls haptic realism. Most of the philosophy of science treats knowledge like vision. You stand back and you observe reality from a distance. She thinks it's more like touch.

D

We just look around, we absorb how things are. Our knowledge is sort of entirely objective. It's almost like a God's idea view on reality. But if you think that scientific knowledge in particular is more kind of touch-like, you can't ignore the fact that we um sort of run into things. We have to pick things up, engage with them.

ultimately change them in order for us to acquire knowledge of them. So you cannot discount the fact that we're kind of meddling th with things in the process of um bringing about our our knowledge.

A

Neuroscientists are more than passive observers of brains. They poke them, they prod them, they stimulate them, they model them, and in doing that, they change what they find. The patterns that emerge are real, but they're also partially created by the process of investigating itself. It takes all the messiness of biological cognition and it reduces it to one imperative.

Minimize free energy. Everything else supposedly follows from that. Now Simplicius loves this. I mean finally the simple truth, the one principle to explain it all. The Ignorantio says Wait a minute. The math is elegant, the framework is unified, but does that mean it's captured what brains actually are?

Or did we just build another beautiful simplification and started forgetting that it was a simplification? So Chiramuta said to me that we should ask different questions, right? Not is this true, but What does this help us do? What does this light up? What does it leave in the darkness? And the other thing, of course, is that we are finite biological creatures, right? We there are limits to our cognition.

And Chomsky spoke about this fascinating concept of a cognitive horizon when we when we chatted with him.

F

If we are organic creatures, we're going to be like other organic creatures, and that there are bounds to our cognitive capacities. So for example, a rat can be trained to run pretty complicated mazes, but it can't be trained to learn a prime number maze. Turn right at every prime number, it just doesn't have the concept. And no matter how much training you do, you're not going to get anywhere.

Well, I suspect there's reasons to suppose we're like rats. We have capacities, we have a nature, we have a structure, they yield all sorts of uh extensive range of things that we can do, but they probably impose limits. Then I think we could even make some guess about what these limits are.

A

So our best theories they bump up against the walls of the limits of our cognition, of our cognitive horizon. And maybe that's fine, but maybe even knowledge of where the walls are is useful in of itself. Science makes things simple, and it's not a flaw. Right? Without simplification, we'd have nothing. You can't study everything at once.

But simplification has risks, right? You forget your model is a model, you mistake elegance for truth, and you think you found solid ground when really you're just building another floor. So look at Opus four point five, right? Foundation models today, they are artifacts of staggering complexity. We've trained them on everything humans have ever written. We treat their outputs like they came from somewhere authoritative, somewhere outside of us, somewhere that knows.

But the knowing was ours all along, right? Just compressed, refracted, reflected back to us from the silicon. Whether that reflection captures the actual thing, that is a question that we're barely starting to ask.

The Limits of Our Understanding

You can use powerful frameworks like the free energy principle, but just remember they're frameworks, right? They're tools for building. They're not the final word. So the brain is not a hydraulic pump. It's not a computer. It's not a telephone network. It's probably not a free energy minimizer either. I mean at least not in some like literal way. What the brain actually is, we will only ever cap glimpses of, right? That is through our limited instruments and theories.

And that's okay, because that's what it means to be finite. So Chiramutus, you had this amazing example from uh Greek mythology, uh called Proteus, right? And if you could pin him down, he'd have to answer your question correctly. But if you let go and you let him get away, then he would shape shift and shape shift. Nature is like that, right? You can pin it down, you can ask questions, but it's always perspectival. As soon as you let go, there's always a myriad of other perspectives.

that can be interpreted from reality. Carl Friston's woodlice, they were doing something very similar, right? So slow down in the sun, move faster in the shade. But Fristan isn't a woodlouse, and neither are you.

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