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and welcome to another episode of the Locked On Bengals Podcast. I'm your host, Jake, Let's go. He's your host. James R. Pember joined today for the first of a multi episode series with Joe Gebbarry to talk about a variety of Cincinnati Bengals off season targets topics starting today with T. Higgins and some of the other big decisions to Bengals have to make about their approach to free agency. Some of their own guys certainly part of that conversation.
Today's episode sponsored by LinkedIn, who helps you find the qualified candidates you want to talk too faster? You can post your job for free at LinkedIn dot com slash locked on NFL terms and conditions applying guys, Let's start the conversation with T. Higgins. A question that is often at by Bengals fans over the last two years is can the Bengals afford to pay T Higgins, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. The answer to that question has always been yes.
The follow up question is should the Bengals pay T Higgins, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase long term? And Joe, you just did a whole episode of Bengals on the Brain sponsored by First Star Logistics. You can find over on YouTube about this, and that's why I'm framing the conversation initially this way. There's so many different angles that you can discuss with this T Higgins decision. What do you think The most important question is when discussing the future for the
Bengals and T Higgins, should they do it? You know, if you framed it as can they and they can? Should they do it? Is the big part of the conversation, and it pulls at both sides of you that your heartstrings and then you're well, you know how much room is left if you pay and spend thirty five to forty percent of your cap on three players And they're three good players, and they're pillar players in this offense in the run they just made the last few years. But yeah, you have
to wonder if that's the best way to allocate resources. And we've seen wide receiver trades the last few years, the amount of return that these other teams have gotten, the Bengals can get something similar that could be a huge boost
to this offense for the next few years. So you have to wonder, are they getting value at T Higgins at twenty plus million, you know where the cap number may be twenty one, twenty two or even an extension pass that or would it be better for this team long term to use those resources and reinvest. Yeah, it's it's such a delimit. It's the biggest offseason
question, and I think there's a couple of ways to look at. And I do wonder just like four years ninety million get it done less than AJ Brown, But I don't think he's AJ Brown, even though he's close. So let's just use that example, and we'll just do three buckets shoe four years ninety million extension for Tea, And I know the guaranteed money matters a
ton. Let's just use those numbers for now twenty one point seven million roughly for the franchise tag, or and you keep him in play out the twenty twenty four season with him on the roster, or franchise tag, trade him to Let's just use Carolina as the example, because Bryce Young's throwing to me right now and they need receivers. That's a shot at Adam Adam Feelin. There we go. I couldn't think of his name, Sorry, Adam,
we're the same age. Or trade him to Carolina for the thirty third overall pick, tag him, trade him, and now you have an extra pick in this year's draft. Yeah, it feels like the best option would be to facilitate that trade and figure out you know, the best value you can get fort T. Higgins use that thirty third pick. And here's the other part too, the Bengals will draft the receiver if that were the case, Like you, what would the odds be if they lose to Higgins and Tyler
Boyd? If Vegas put numbers on the Bengals drafting a first round or second round spending one of those first three picks on a wide receiver, it'd be extremely high. So they would replace. And they've been a good and aggressive rafting wide receiver team, so I would have confidence that they'd be able to
fill that role somewhat. But yes, I think the other hard part of this is if you tag him and cannot trade him, or if the Bengals overvalue him for what other teams like if they say, no, we want a first round pick and we're gonna be sticklers about it, which that sounds like the Bengals and the Panthers are like, hey, we've got the thirty
third pick. This is almost as good as you're going to get. And they say no, we want to first we think he's worth this, YadA, YadA, YadA, and they don't get it done, and it's a situation where Higgins isn't there for camp, right, we just had this with Jesse Bates and then he shows up, he's ready for week one and just plugging him into this offense and he and Burrow aren't on the same page or
it's not ready to go, it's not ready to happen. It's as a rough and rocky year for a guy you're paying twenty two million dollars to that could hurt your offense in more ways. So and he seems like a good dude where he's going to show up and he's going to do his thing when he gets there, but there are still ramifications for doing that. So I think it is a fine line with those two options. And then we talked
about, you know, just allocating that any resources. If that contract worked for Tea in his side four years ninety million, does that work in saying now we can't pay Kappa and Karris or Kapa and Kris type players when you need two more starting offensive linemen. You already need a starting right tackle this offseason. Go a year later now you need a maybe a left guard,
maybe you need a center, maybe you need another defensive tackle. Wherever the positions are, you're going to now have less parts of the pie to give out to those spots. I think a big part of the conversation as well that we haven't mentioned yet that needs to be discussed as C Higgins has had unfortunately durability issues. Every season there has been an injury. This caused him to miss time his rookie year. He just didn't get under the field in
time. He played sixteen games that year. So rookie year, Okay Fine did have the nagging hamstring that kind of was around in the off season process for him, in the draft prep process for him. But in twenty twenty one, according to Over the Cap, played about sixty five percent of the team's snaps. Twenty twenty two, played a career high sixty eight percent of the Bengals offensive snaps, into twenty twenty three played fifty three percent of the
Bengals offensive snaps. So, say this is a player that when he's fully healthy, is worth twenty eight million dollars a year, you don't discount to sixty eight percent or fifty two percent or whatever, sixty three percent if you take the average of what he's worth when he's healthy, Because if you look at the over the Cap of valuation tool. When t Higgins is healthy and having good weeks, they put those weeks on a yearly value of twenty two
to twenty five and a half million dollars. But then you miss a bunch of time and you have weeks that are not that valuable, because that's the nature of the NFL. Unless you're Justin Jefferson, they're down weeks. And even Justin Jefferson had down weeks. So how do you figure out what that number is if you're the Bengals, And even if you figure out what that number is, decide if that's actually a good contract. That's what's really hard.
And there's a history of soft tissue injuries. And if your tea's side or tea's agent, why would you agree to anything that maybe put in provisions of per game active roster bonuses or anything to safeguard the Bengals in any way, because you wouldn't have to worry about yeah, and you wouldn't have to worry about that if you reach free agency, right like the Jaguars would throw crazy money at you, the Jets, the Panthers, name the teams that
spend in free agency, they won't worry about that. They'll spend now and figure it out later. Where the Bengals, rightfully, if they ask for those things, it would make sense on our end to say, like, hey, just in case you miss time, we should recoup some of this money because it's a huge asset. It's a huge portion of the pie. You'd be giving them both receivers because Jamar Chase will also likely be extended this
offseason. So Joe just from strictly an extension standpoint, given the durability, given what team means, given the position, given how well the Bengals draft there, would you try to extend him at the inevitable numbers that it would take to sign him, or do you think tagging and trading is the best route? Like, what what would you do if the Bengals call you tomorrow
and Duke Tobin says, we're going to follow your lead here. I would suggest to tag and trade and find and get whatever resources and draft picks you could possibly get out of it. If that is even a second and maybe they throwing a fifth rounder from the Panthers, you know, thirty three and then a fifth round or fine, whatever I can maximize out of it. The hard part is I've always preached that when you draft these guys and you
develop them and they become everything you hoped they would be. And you would say that about t Higgins. It's hard to let those guys walk, and you shouldn't let those guys walk. These are good players. The Jesse Bates a year ago, Kevin Zeitler, you know a handful of years that are
he's still playing and still very good. And it takes you years to replace these guys because you miss a draft pick, or you think you John Miller can play right guard, or you think Brandon Lafel can be the receiver that to replace Mohammed Sanu and Marb Jones, like, it doesn't always work.
To replacement isn't always better than the option of just paying the guy, and then you lift your head two years later and all that contract's not so bad because ten other receivers have been paid afterwards, and I think it was twenty seven receivers had one thousand yard seasons this past year, the most ever. I mean, these guys are going to all get paid, but it also means that it's probably easier to find a one thousand yard receiver than ever before.
They're coming out of college every year. We're like man, another crazy good wide receiver class. The value there is probably as cheap as it's ever been at the receiver position. You probably shouldn't pay a number. Two more to talk about with the t Higgins decision and the various directions the Bengals could go not only with the Higgins but with other free agents as well. We'll continue those topics with Joe coming up next. This episode of Lockdown Bengals is
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how you feel about T Higgins, but he's not the only guy. And let's just stick with the offense now because Jonah Williams, a guy who a lot of people went at the trade last offseason, stays healthy, plays every snap is on the field the entire time at right tackle is set to be one of the top, maybe the top offensive linemen. And free agency, do you think the Bengals have a chance of retaining him, or do you just assume that he's out the door. I am assuming he's out the door.
And if I found it negative about the prospects of keeping T Higgins, I'm even less keen on the idea of extending or finding common ground with John Williams. And I like John Williams, and I think he's been maybe wrongfully hated on a little bit too much. He's a solid starting tackle and what that means is he's going to get paid a big chunk of money in free agency, and in fact, not worth it for the Bengals to even chase it, because I think they need to elevate and raise the roof of this
offensive line. They need to get better there somehow. And really the only answer there is you find a value free agent number one, and maybe that's a guy like Jermaine and luminor or Trent Brown or Michael and when you can play that position, or it's we spent a first or second round pick and we strike gold and the guy's making four million dollars a year and he's a good starting right tackle by year two, and now we've saved money and you
elevated the overall talent on the offensive line. I think keeping Jonah at sixteen million dollars a year, if it even gets higher, is a negative value overall because you're paying a premium for average, and I think the Bengals need to avoid that as much as possible moving forward, because it's now you're in a different time. When you pay Joe Burrow and the cap hits start coming, you've got to maximize the value at the other fifty two roster spots as
much as possible. And yeah, you got to overpay for some guy. You've got to overpay maybe a little bit for ORLANDA Brown, even though that was a very favorable contract sixteenth highest cap hit for tackles. But then you're going to overpay a little bit for Jamaar Chase first couple years. Those are those are accepted. There is another chunk of this roster that you cannot afford
to overspend on. It's a value proposition. It's spending on average. Like you said, it's something that we're going to talk about in this series, not necessarily get into depth on today, but I like that you allude to that point. There are a few things that have come up if you're paying close attention that you're going to hear come up in some of the later topics that we discussed. But I do think that that makes sense for Jonah Williams.
But at the same time you mentioned Jermaine Luminar. I don't think you can get to a point in the draft where it's draft pick or bust. You don't want to be in that situation ever. And as a position, the Bengals have mostly avoided by trying to draft into the future. But when they try to draft into the future, those guys they've drafted to be the successor starters have almost never been ready to play at the level of the player
that we replacing. So that's another topic that perhaps we need to get through. But when you look at the Bengals list of free agents, Joe the Tyler boys should obi a Woozia's DJ Reider. Those are the other big name guys, the guys that are playing huge roles for this team, the guys that are starting level roles for this team. Do any of them look like guys that you would prioritize bringing back. Yeah, I would have to be Dj Reider, and given his age and injury, history as well. He's
played even less snaps than Tee Higgins over his four years. I think it was at forty three percent of the defensive snaps. Number One, because he's a nose tackle, he's not gonna be out there for one hundred percent of snaps. Ever, maybe the cap for that position sixty five percent of the
snaps even if you were fully healthy. But still it means he has dealt with injuries and can the Bengals afford to have a guy again that if he gives you half the season at a premium pay and then misses the other half, that's a negative value on the in your cap limits. So it makes sense with his age also that the Bengals just may not be able to find common ground unless he goes out there and there's nothing there for DJ Reader and
those same concerns are felt around the league. And he comes back and rehabs and finishes what he started. Maybe it's a one or two year deal and the Bengals get him out of value contract. Otherwise I see a Woozier and Boyd as opportunities to upgrade, especially Boyd. I think this conversation probably applies to him most. He's been a good player for the Bengals, a very good slot receiver. He's done. He's been exactly what the pre draft scouting
reports said he would be. He was that and even more for his character and leadership. But this team need to get faster. They need to get more explosive, They need to get better after the catch, They need to get more versatile. I think one of the issues that really they've struggled with lately and maybe even has capped Jamar Chase's statistical production, is that Tyler Boyd
has to be in the slot to be good. And when you get him out of there, and maybe you can move Chase more into the slot, maybe you can get Charlie Jones a bit more speed, Maybe you can mix things up just a little bit more with and we saw it the last few weeks when they started rotating Charlie Jones in more speed slot options, just in his routes with the jet motions pre snap. You saw how differently the vision
is with a guy that's just a little bit faster. Again, not trying to knock Tyler, but the opportunity to get different and the opportunity to get better because you're different, more versatile, is there at that position and desperately. I'm very excited to see how the Bengals attack that if they do it all, even if it's just Charlie Jones, fine, but I think there is room there for say, like, Okay, this tight end can do this, this running back can go and split out wide. You can get
another outside receiver and move Chase inside it. If there's a lot of options, a lot of meat on the bone there, we definitely have to discuss running back coming up. You mentioned DJ Reader, and I think one it's DJ Reader, but it's that entire room that's up. Josh Tupo's a free agent. J two Fela is not a big part of it, but certainly
one that's scheduled to hit free agency as well. Do you think it's gonna be bj Hill and a bunch of new faces essentially outside of Zach Carter, who's obviously going into year three and can we punt Zach Zach Carter to the moon also, like I don't want to see him playing anymore, I'll be honest. Is that that if you Brad Robins, Brad Robbinson shanking, let Brad Robbins punt Zach Carter This might be your best offseason content right here.
Who can we punt off the roster? No, one doesn't have the leg. By the way, A small correction, we got this wrong. I got this wrong the other day. J. T. Felly is actually under contract for twenty twenty four. Wow. Great, Well that doesn't mean he's going to be on the roster, right just I got that wrong the other day too, So he should be. He should be on the man. Will he make the roster as we discuss camp, Yes, I think it's fair to say so. They need a nose tackle and if it's not Reader,
they definitely need one. And then they still even when Reader was there throughout the year, it's like they don't have an interior pass rusher. They don't have a penetrator at three tech, a guy that can really cause havoc and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. I looked at tackles for a loss for the Bengals this year, all time low for them in the last ten years, Like obviously from Geno Atkins when he used to get fifteen tackles
for a loss, it was amazing. But then Larry Ogunjobi, I want to say at eleven and I think this year their defensive tackle room had less than ten total. I think it was at nine. So they're not penetrating, they're not getting back there. You're not getting those you know. Negative two, negative three are runs that I think really helped we see penalties and secks what they do on first and second down to create advantageous third downs.
Bengals didn't have a lot of those this year because they are a poor against the run, but because also they weren't getting a lot of tackles for a loss. So I think not just a nose tackle, but ad tackle as well. You can need two guys in this room. You can make an argument that three guys should probably be added to this and maybe that's a solid B level free agent D tackle eventually a first round D tackle, second round, third round D tackle, and then maybe a vet value guy later.
The Bengals haven't drafted a defensive tackle in the first round since nineteen ninety four. For those wondering, both of you guys were older than me. I was just three then. So we'll see if they do that. But I mentioned running back. Let's discuss running back coming up next. Today's show is brought to you by Fandel right now. New customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets guaranteed when you place a five dollars bet that means the
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never been more important to be prepared than today. Go to jas medical dot com and use code locked on to get twenty dollars off your order. Can't go more than an episode on the Lockdown Bengals podcast without discussing running backs. This week, I think this is three in a row? Should we not get me three in a row? No? Not, No, I mean
we we should. I think that it's not necessarily a free agent conversation, but we can talk running back in terms of how it fits into priorities, and in that sense, it is a free agent conversation, but not an internal free agent conversation, which is where we can Oh it is we have been talking internal free agents. You want to talk about Trevion Williams. No, let's talk about Joe Mixon. Do three million dollars on March sixteenth? Joe, Yeah, would not free game or not. But it's the same
thing though it's a decision, yeah, Jener. I don't think it is a decision when the it's when the restructure happened from the source that at that time it was first related to me that this will be a one year, this will be his last year in Cincinnati, and then the information came out that is actually two. And then when you look at it, like oh, because they can save a decent chunk in twenty twenty four and he's got
that roster bonus. I think that person was reading the tea leaves and was saying like, yeah, he'll never see that March third bonus whenever that is. So, I have been projecting that they're going to release Joe Mixon. I know that gets the comments going every time. You know people, he had a productive season for what he was given in the situation, and I would hope most guys that get three hundred touches can pull in that amun the yardage. So it's not again, I don't want to knock the guy too
bad because he stayed healthy, he didn't fumble the ball. Those are great qualities to have. But I do think, like Tyler Boyd, the Bengals are going to look at this opportunity to become more versatile, become deeper, and they have maybe some more explosive plays at that position, and I think that includes free agency and potentially the draft as well. The interesting thing with Mixon is that from a cap perspective, it's more of a cap issue than
a cast issue for me. And this is the scenario that I've talked about on this podcast before. The front office could look at it and say, you know what, we only have to pay in five million dollars five and a half million dollars cash this year, but it's an eight and a half million dollar capit, So I think if I think that could be a true cap casualty kind of decision for mixing off his cap number was the same as his cash number this year, five and a half million, whatever it is.
I think the Bengals will be totally fine with that, seeing what they saw from Chase Brown later in the year, seeing Joe Mixon's increase efficiency when they were splitting carries a little bit more. But one thing you and I have talked about, Joe, one thing that we've talked about, you know, over the last couple of years, is trying to find a back somebody that I kept talking about in yesterday's episode, that can block, that can catch, that has a little bit of explosion to his game. I keep
coming back to Mantonio Gibson for free agency. This class is a top heavy free agent class. Hard to convince yourself that the Bengals are going to go bend on a top level free agent running back. And it's a bad draft class and the depth of running back. There's some guys out there, but
none of them really check all three of those boxes. That's why I always end up coming back to samashefre Ryan too, because even though there's not explosion there, at least he can do those things and it's not a tip like Trayvon Williams is a tip that the Bengals are passing the ball and Travion Williams is on the field. At least you get a guy baseline that can do all three things and isn't tipping your hand. But what are you looking for
or are there realistic targets? I guess this offseason that you think could do those things when your only other guy if they do move on from Joe Mixon, is Chase Brown, who you saw a handful of carries from late in the year. Yeah, and I think they walked into this season with a very poor depth chart at running back. You know, Travon Williams, he probably wouldn't be on another roster, right, maybe as a fourth guy somewhere else, but the Bengals at times we're using him as a number two because
they had no other options. Chris Evans gets the first carry of the season and we never see him again. That was it for him, you know. So it's like it's it's such a bad situation. We talked about defensive
tackle could be three new guys. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire depth chart other than Chase Brown was completely different at running back, and I think that largely comes from having the opportunity to get value at that position, where if it's a last year Devin Signaltary, we talked about him plenty of times, like as a guy that could just do it all. Yeah, he's not a four to three, not a four to four to six y five guy, but he still made guys miss and you didn't have to take him
off the field in certain situations. Having more guys like that on this roster where I don't have to give mixing three hundred carries or touches would be ideal.
I'm excited for the opportunity for a running back by committee. If that's an AJ Brown paired with Chase Brown, or Antonio Gibson paired with Chase Brown and a fourth round pick, or a Clyde Edwards Hilaire and a third round pick and Chase Brown, like three guys say, Hey, they're all different skill sets, they all do different things differently, and we're just gonna mix them around and go with it, Like, let's stop pigeonholing these guys into
one spot and saying, Travon Williams past protext, Joe Mixon's runs and Chase Brown catches screens like stop that. Let's just get three guys that can play and use them. You can't have guys that are so one dimensional, you said, AJ Brown. Just want to make sure you meant AJ Dillon. I believe I did. Yeah, let's what AJ Brown at running back? Though he's very disgruntled right now, but yes, AJ Dillon, I mean AJ Brown. You heard it here first, quickly before we get out of
here, tight end. Obviously there's nobody in that room that is free agency. They're all free agents to be Uh, yeah they are. So what do you do? Who do you bring back of the current guys? And why is at R Smith Junior? Yeah he will go. He'll find it out somewhere. But you caught me up guard with that one. Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample Sure, I'm ringing both them back, and neither should be
overly expensive. I think, Uh, there's two guys with concrete roles that don't intertwine or intersect at all, So you gotta have to be careful with who you add to that room. They still need a tight end one. I think Hudson did his thing and overshot expectations despite what we saw in the summer and said, hey, this guy is probably the best receiving tight end he was that It took them six weeks to figure that out. But yeah, I do think they need a tight end still. They have a lot
of options to go there. And it's supposedly a week tight end draft class. So do you attack it in free agency and not wait until the draft so that you can be bypassed by all these other teams taking tight ends? Again, I think they get a little more aggressive this year in free agency
and go for it and fill it that way. One of the topics to discuss, and obviously we're not very deep into this draft class yet, but if you listen to our episode with Mike Runner last Friday or Thursday, the just from him and he's got an article actually on the Messenger ranking the positions in the draft class tight end running back bottom not good and so one of the things that we have to talk about when we talk about is this an
opportunity for the Bengals to change their personnel philosophy or how should they allocate their resources, which is what we're going to do in tomorrow's episode. One of the factors there is where are the strengths and weaknesses in this draft class and free agency class because also kind of thin its height end in free agency,
and how does that push the Bengals approach this off season. Like I said, we'll get to some of those conversations with Joe coming up in tomorrow's episode, So make sure you come back for the next couple where we're talking more off season topics with Joe Gibbray here on the Lockdown Bengals podcast. Until then, thanks for listening who day and having a one