The SpaceX Investment Thesis: Where We Are Now

Ejaaz: Four days. That's how long SpaceX has been a public company. Ejaaz: And in those four days, it's broken just about every single IPO record that there's ever been. Ejaaz: They blew past Amazon and Microsoft's valuation, reaching a $3 trillion valuation. Ejaaz: It is the fourth most valuable company in the world. Ejaaz: But Elon also became the world's first trillionaire. He made more money in one Ejaaz: day than Warren Buffett has made in his entire life. Just absolutely insane.

Ejaaz: The stock itself, Off the price is already 50% above its IPO price, Ejaaz: and they've already made their first acquisition, $60 billion to acquire Cursor Ejaaz: to become the number one frontier AI lab Ejaaz: it's not all unstoppable for Ejaaz: SpaceX right now. Only 4% of the stock supply is available to purchase. Ejaaz: And the company is valued at 107x its earnings. This is the largest gap that Ejaaz: we've seen for any Mag 7 company or top Fortune 500 company.

Ejaaz: And there's an aggressive unlock schedule, which we'll get on later in the episode. Ejaaz: But the number one question that's on my mind, and I'm sure a lot of your minds Ejaaz: is, is SpaceX the investment of the century? Or is this the strongest signal that we in an AI bubble. Josh: Well, according to Elon, it is. He just posted that they're going to have a Josh: trillion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade.

Josh: That is going to be a tremendous amount of upside. And retail seems to agree. Josh: I was looking at this chart just before we started recording that showed over Josh: the last two trading sessions, retail investors bought nearly as much SpaceX Josh: as every other single US stock combined. Josh: And it's been amazing. The first day of trading, it was up, what is it, 20%? Josh: Second day, 20%. Third day, 5%. Today, as we're recording, this is up another 5%.

Josh: The thing has been up only. It eclipsed a $3 trillion market cap, Josh: making it the fourth most valuable company in the world over Microsoft. Josh: I mean, look at this chart. It's crazy. We have NVIDIA, Alphabet, Josh: which is Google, Apple, SpaceX, and Microsoft in the top five. Josh: It's unbelievable that this new company comes on the scene and is immediately among the top five.

Josh: And it has been doing really well for good reason. There's a very strong outlook Josh: on revenue, on guidance, on the actual company.

Josh: But man, like you said, Ejaz, it's very expensive and there's a lot to get into Josh: with this as it relates to how expensive this is but it's a double-sided sword, Josh: because this premium that the stock has allows it to do really interesting things Josh: like for example purchase a company for 60 billion dollars effectively for free Josh: and that has some upside for the stock as well so there's a lot of really exciting

Josh: things that have been happening with spacex it's doing well i think the answer Josh: that i want to give by at the end of this episode is, Josh: Should you be investing in this now? And what is our kind of forward outlook?

Ejaaz: So let's get into what exactly happened. On Friday, they IPO'd 555.6 million Ejaaz: shares were released for trading. Ejaaz: That's around 4.3 to 4.7 of the entire share supply. So not that much. Ejaaz: And we'll get into why that might be problematic later, but at a fixed price of $135. Ejaaz: Now, immediately upon listing, it hit $160. Ejaaz: And by the end of trading on Friday, I think it was sitting just above $200.

Ejaaz: And then like you mentioned, it's been on a subsequent run that has put it just Ejaaz: around 50% above its IPO $135 price. Ejaaz: Now, this is absolutely insane, because as I mentioned earlier, Ejaaz: There's a large discrepancy between what SpaceX generates as a company. Ejaaz: Just last year, they generated around $15 to $18 billion.

Ejaaz: Now, it's positioned above Amazon and Microsoft, but above Amazon, Ejaaz: which comparably generated, I believe, $770 billion last year, Ejaaz: of which $80 billion was actual revenue that they earned. Ejaaz: Compare that to SpaceX, they lost $4.9 billion. Ejaaz: So the multiples are kind of like reaching for a moment, but it was the most Ejaaz: insane wealth-creating event ever.

Ejaaz: Over 4,400 SpaceX employees became millionaires, with I think well over 100 Ejaaz: of them earning $100 million just from this singular event. Ejaaz: Elon himself, as I mentioned, became the world's first trillionaire. Ejaaz: And of course, his wealth is mixed up in a lot of different companies. Ejaaz: But now SpaceX, his baby, formerly it was Tesla, has now become his main a source

Ejaaz: of value creation. So the question in everyone's mind is, what are you going Ejaaz: to do with all this money? Ejaaz: Now, there was an option that we spoke about a few episodes ago around SpaceX Ejaaz: potentially acquiring this different company that will allow them to leapfrog Ejaaz: and become a frontier AI lab. Turns out that's exactly what Elon did. Josh: Yeah, it's pretty amazing how they effectively got it for free.

Josh: When I think about acquisitions that were made, we can remember the ex-acquisition Josh: of Twitter at the time. Yeah. And how it was considered to be this humongous Josh: amount of money for 40-something billion dollars that was spent. Josh: Cursor just got acquired for 60 billion dollars. And we have to give congratulations Josh: in order first to the four co-founders who are now worth over 5.5 billion dollars each. Josh: Allegedly, we have a great photo, actually, of them we could show.

Josh: Because these are these are not they're not like grown-ups these like young Josh: people they're in their 20s these.

Ejaaz: Are kids they're kids and Josh: They're all multi-billionaires so to these four people on the screen congratulations Josh: you have permanently escaped the underclass for life and for probably the next Josh: 50 generations of life you created an incredible product congratulations, Josh: so elon bought it and the way that they bought it was really interesting and Josh: also just some backstory for those that don't know cursor is that thing that

Josh: we talk about a lot called the harness It is basically the, Josh: operating system, the body that will embody the Grok and the XAI and probably Josh: cursor models in the future. Josh: So cursor, incredible company, really a remarkable comeback. Josh: And Elon essentially was able to acquire them for free. How? Josh: Well, if you remember back earlier this year in April, SpaceX locked up an option Josh: to either pay $10 billion for a partnership or buy the whole company for $60 billion.

Josh: At the time, SpaceX stock was not that high. It was still private. Josh: It was maybe sub $100 at the time or just above $100, whatever it may be. Josh: Fast forward to today, that stock is now worth $211. Each stock is worth so Josh: much more than it was at the time. Josh: What effectively what that means is because they're buying this in all stock, Josh: it allows them to basically just grant a significantly less amount of stock

Josh: to these founders because the price is so much higher. So that option that they Josh: paid for earlier in the year is really paying off dividends. Josh: And the result is that they got a really steep discount on buying cursor because Josh: if they would have bought it just a couple months earlier, the price would have Josh: been over double effectively. Ejaaz: Yeah. So Elon basically bought this amazing frontier AI lab with an inflated

Ejaaz: currency that was SpaceX stock. And the way he was able to do this was because Ejaaz: there's only a 4% float supply for the shares itself.

Ejaaz: Now, I just want to talk about the option very quickly. Ejaaz: It was $10 billion that Cursor would pay them if they decided to not acquire Cursor. Ejaaz: And they had 30 days. SpaceX had 30 days from the start of the IPO to decide Ejaaz: whether they wanted to acquire Cursor or not for an all-star transaction or whatever that might be. Ejaaz: Elon exercised that within day four, or actually day three. That was yesterday. Ejaaz: This happened yesterday.

Ejaaz: So he just acted very quickly. And the reason for this is it's not just Cursor's Ejaaz: harness on its own. So for any of you who have used Cursor, it's probably the Ejaaz: first product that you interacted with to start Vibe coding different types of products. Ejaaz: It's the thing that arguably made Vibe coding a very viral thing. Ejaaz: At one point, Cursor, the product itself, accounted for 40% of Anthropix coding

Ejaaz: usage for Claude specifically. This was before Claude code became like a viral sensation itself. Ejaaz: So Cursor at the time, I think, was making around 1 billion ARR, Ejaaz: and now it's like making between 2 to 3 billion ARR. Ejaaz: So a really good purchase. But the point is, Elon was able to acquire it using Ejaaz: stock at an inflated price, which effectively makes it free. Now, get this.

Ejaaz: $60 billion that Elon just spent to acquire this AI company is more money than Ejaaz: Elon spent on SpaceX for rockets over its entire lifetime. Ejaaz: So SpaceX, the company that was built to create rockets and effectively become Ejaaz: the highway to space, just spent the most amount of money acquiring an AI lab. Ejaaz: Now, obviously, this makes sense because they merged with XAI.

Ejaaz: The whole idea is to put data centers out in space to train Grok, Ejaaz: which is contained within XAI. Ejaaz: Cursor has an amazing product that basically allows Grok to become a super coding Ejaaz: model and allow it to compete with Anthropic. Ejaaz: They already proved this with the recent Composer 2.5 model, which Cursor released.

Ejaaz: And Michael Truel, the founder of Cursor, actually spoke on a panel or on a Ejaaz: presentation yesterday where he said Ejaaz: they've actually trained a foundational model that is releasing in the next Ejaaz: few weeks that's been trained from scratch typically cursors models have been Ejaaz: fine-tuned on top of a chinese model but trained from scratch and that's definitely grok itself so Ejaaz: tldr space is going to come up with a frontier ai model after this acquisition

Ejaaz: released in a few weeks so it is Ejaaz: a huge win to acquire a company Josh: Like this yeah and that's not even the most interesting thing about it like Josh: it's amazing how many different pillars that exist with this company and i think Josh: one of the things you mentioned was how much money they spent and how much money they raise. Josh: And I want to highlight a few key numbers with the cumulative spend versus the IPO raise. Josh: They raised $85 billion in this IPO.

Josh: For reference, they spent $15 billion on the entire Starship program. Josh: When you think about the Starlink program that is running a global constellation Josh: of satellites that is beaming down internet to earth with lasers, Josh: they spent $20 billion on that. Josh: The total between Starship, which is the Martian rocket that's going to go build Josh: this base on moon, and Starlink, the global internet provider, is $35 billion. Josh: They raised almost triple that in money.

Josh: And that means that the scale and the scope of what they're going after is just Josh: so huge. But before we get into the grand scheme of things, we have to talk Josh: about the price now because that's what everyone wants to know about. Josh: That's what all the interest is about.

Josh: And I think to do that, we should start with the share float, Josh: which is an important thing that I'm not sure a lot of people have really kind Josh: of focused on or are really aware of. So basically, when a company is traded, Josh: there are a certain amount of shares that are available to be traded on a public marketplace. Josh: In the case of SpaceX, this number is actually very low. It comes out to about Josh: 4.2 to 4.3% of the total shares being actually tradable.

Josh: What does this look like? Well, yesterday during the trading session, Josh: I think half 50% of all of the shares traded hands in a single trading session. Josh: There's not a lot of liquidity, or I shouldn't say that there's, Josh: there's a lot of liquidity, but there's not a lot of shares to be pushed around. Josh: Meaning if there is more demand, it is able to push the price higher, Josh: much quicker because there's less of that float that it needs to churn through.

Josh: As a result, the stock has done very well and hasn't met much resistance. Josh: I mean, every day it's been seemingly up only. Josh: When does this change, is the question, because right now there's a very little Josh: amount. There's a lot of hype and demand, but there is a very clear and perhaps Josh: concerning unlock schedule in which that float is going to grow to be much larger than 4%. Ejaaz: Yeah. Listen, like I'm a SpaceX bull. I bought stock at IPO.

Ejaaz: I will be holding this stock for a long time. I believe in Elon being able to Ejaaz: pull this off, but you can't ignore the mechanics. Ejaaz: Now, I have a visual on the screen right now. If you're listening to this, I'll explain it to you. Ejaaz: Right now, around 4.2% of the stock supply is available to trade. Ejaaz: So that's what is available on the market. That's why the price is so volatile Ejaaz: and is going either up or down, mainly up over the last few days.

Ejaaz: Over the next 90 days, 4.4x, the entire current flow, so that's 2.4 billion Ejaaz: shares will get released onto the market in a staggered way. Ejaaz: And this releases from friends and family that invested earlier, Ejaaz: as well as early investors that such as funds or institutional funds that got Ejaaz: access to invest in SpaceX's earlier rounds. Ejaaz: Now, over 180 days, which is Ejaaz: basically six months, you'll have a total of 56% of the supply released.

Ejaaz: So that is this year, by the end of this year, you have an additional 56% of Ejaaz: the current float that is being traded. Ejaaz: That is TLDR, a ton of And so the main question on everyone's mind is, Ejaaz: where's this money going to come from? Ejaaz: You need money to absorb that supply release in order to maintain the current Ejaaz: price that we're looking at.

Ejaaz: So if we're looking at like, say, a $220 price per share, you're going to need Ejaaz: multiples more of the current money that is in the supply right now. Ejaaz: Just prop up that price, not even just send it higher. So the concern here is Ejaaz: this is a very abnormal unlock schedule. Ejaaz: This is not particularly normal. I'll show the step ladder over here. Ejaaz: Typically, when a company IPOs, they IPO around 40% to 50% of the available

Ejaaz: supply, and then the rest unlocks after a one-year cliff. That's typically the Ejaaz: standard that everyone's shown. Ejaaz: With Elon's IPO, with the SpaceX IPO, everything has pretty much changed. Ejaaz: For the unlock schedule, it happens a lot sooner and a lot more frequently.

Ejaaz: Equally on the buy side of things, and I think this is important to point out, Ejaaz: Elon has been able to wrangle a very effective, Ejaaz: call it a scheme, where you have a lot of the pension funds, Ejaaz: the S&P 500 purchases, the people that buy these indexes from pension funds Ejaaz: and other sort of instruments that will have this constant buying pressure on SpaceX's IPO. Ejaaz: So the balance of these two will effectively determine what that ultimate price is going to be.

Ejaaz: But right now, it's looking pretty intimidating.

Josh: Yeah, well, to say that it needs to absorb the sell pressure is implying that Josh: there will be sell pressure. And I think it's also important to know who the Josh: people are who are currently locked up. Josh: If your shares are locked up, you are an insider, you are early in SpaceX, you are in the green. Josh: So there's a high probability that there is some sort of incentive and urge Josh: to want to sell to take your money off the table.

Josh: And by December 9th of this year, about 60% of all the shares will become available, Josh: with the remaining 50% or 40% being available in June of 2027. Josh: So there is a very clear projected path to a lot of potential sell pressure. Josh: Now, I think it's important to note the types of people that are invested in Josh: SpaceX and the people that share the vision of SpaceX being very bullish and very long term.

Josh: A lot of these investors invested in Elon, the founder, they invested in SpaceX, Josh: the deca trillion dollar company, not the two to three trillion dollar company.

Josh: So while there is going to be selling pressure, there's certainly a case to Josh: be made that a lot of these early supporters still believe that they're early Josh: and are using this as an option to just continue to hold to not sell so while Josh: there will be sell pressure it is not necessarily going to be Josh: a bad thing it is possible not necessarily and elon seems to be fueling this Josh: fire he just posted a few days ago that spacex might be able to reach approximately

Josh: one trillion dollars in revenue, Josh: by 2030. And he would be surprised if it were not above $1 trillion by 2031. Josh: A trillion dollars in revenue is unheard of. Josh: No one makes a trillion dollars in revenue. If SpaceX just trades at 10 times Josh: their revenue, they're trading at a $10 trillion valuation. That gets you there in four years.

Josh: So there is this very clear bull case based on these pillars that they have Josh: between Starlink and Starship and selling their AI compute and just owning their Josh: own AI infrastructure through the acquisition of cursor and through Josh: their data centers that they have that makes it incredibly compelling for people who Josh: maybe if you're investing over the next six months could be rocky but that like

Josh: multi-year trajectory still seems to be like very optimistic and very bullish.

Ejaaz: Yeah yes and no like i do want to try and like ground it a little bit which Ejaaz: is like okay like let's go back to this chart right effectively on like day Ejaaz: one you've got around like 3.7 billion dollars worth of sell pressure. Ejaaz: This is like after that initial 90-day period, right? Ejaaz: These guys, these early investors that you mentioned, I agree are long-term Ejaaz: holders, but they're also up over 100x.

Ejaaz: If you're up over 100x, you're probably cashing some of this out. Ejaaz: Now, there are ways that they would cash this out. Maybe they don't sell the equity itself. Ejaaz: Maybe they borrow against it. There's loads of fancy ways to manage your wealth in that way. Ejaaz: And these people will probably exercise some version of that.

Ejaaz: But I do think there will be some form of sell pressure. And then the main question, Ejaaz: therefore, on my mind is, is there enough hands to exchange that? Ejaaz: Now, initially, I think actually there will be. Ejaaz: I think there's a lot of retail demand for this thing. I think there was something Ejaaz: like $250 billion worth of purchasing power from retail alone, Ejaaz: just through the likes of Robinhood and all the retail trading accounts from banks on day one.

Ejaaz: So there's that. And then there's also the constant buying pressure from Ejaaz: The institutions that buy S&P 500 indexes and stuff like that. Ejaaz: So I think it'll balance out eventually, but there is an abnormal amount of Ejaaz: potential selling pressure that will come from some of these early investors. Ejaaz: And I don't think it's as easy as saying like all of them are going to hold Ejaaz: when they're up like massively. So I just want to kind of like put that out

Ejaaz: there. I'm not a bear in any way, but there are some contingency plans that Ejaaz: probably need to be made.

Josh: Well, okay, that's fair. so in six months from now i guess we could look at Josh: this like there's two types of investors maybe we could address here the the Josh: shorter term traders that are looking to make money before the end of the year Josh: and then there's the longer term traders that are looking on a five to ten year, Josh: kind of scope so for the six month traders for the people that want to buy a

Josh: really nice gift for christmas maybe buy a brand new performance tesla tax should they buy yeah yeah, Josh: should they buy spacex stock in order to get there do we think it's going to Josh: be a bullish a positive six months.

Ejaaz: Yeah honestly i think there's so much demand for this thing that people will Ejaaz: just buy it anyway, because the people that are buying it now are probably there Ejaaz: for the long term, they know that they weren't able to get involved in like Ejaaz: some of the private deals. Ejaaz: I also think people are going to be staring at the unlock schedules.

Ejaaz: And they're going to think, hmm, okay, I've got until this time until this amount Ejaaz: unlocks, I'll play the game up until there. Ejaaz: So I think more of the short term minded things that maybe want to make a trade Ejaaz: and like, be able to afford a Tesla by buying SpaceX stock probably have a good odds of doing that. Josh: And then you have to assume that the unlock schedule may get front run. Josh: People are all aware of it. Everyone's watching these dates.

Josh: It's going to be an interesting game theory dynamic applied to that, Josh: but it seems like things are pretty stable. I mean, this is very expensive. Josh: I could very easily see a world in which it trades somewhat near the IPO price, Josh: like sub 200 for, for a while, while it just kind of clears through insurance Josh: that, but the longer term, like someone who wants to own this through 2030, Josh: say for the next four years, what do you think about that?

Ejaaz: Oh i mean it's the same thesis that i would have with my investment which is Ejaaz: like i think overall spacex will be up but again Ejaaz: it it not everyone can hold through volatility right like if you see if you're Ejaaz: an amazon holder right let's let's take the company that spacex literally just Ejaaz: surpassed on day two right um Ejaaz: if you've been holding it for the last three years you've been in utter hell

Ejaaz: right uh but the idea is if you look at amazon's fundamentals it is absolutely Ejaaz: killing it way more than SpaceX, right? Ejaaz: I mentioned earlier, $700 billion last year in revenue, and they made about Ejaaz: $80 billion of actual profit off of that. SpaceX comparably made a fraction Ejaaz: of that and had a net loss, right? Ejaaz: So the fundamentals don't really make sense, but the people who held Amazon Ejaaz: is currently down more than the people who bought SpaceX on day one.

Ejaaz: So that kind of dichotomy is kind of crazy to understand. And maybe it's just Ejaaz: up to market dynamics and public interpretation. Ejaaz: But that being said, if you're on a long term, if you're looking at fundamentals, Ejaaz: if you believe that SpaceX will bring the cost of traveling out to space to Ejaaz: 200K per launch, then it's an easy bet. It's a long-term hold. Ejaaz: But it's whether you can handle the volatility.

Josh: That's the main thing. That's kind of the advice that I've been giving to friends. Josh: A lot of people have been reaching out and asking like, hey, Josh: what do you think about SpaceX stock? And I tell them, if you are comfortable... Josh: Investing long-term and just putting your money away and slowly building a position Josh: or quickly building a position in a company that you believe in, Josh: then it's a great investment, a remarkable investment even.

Josh: Because I mean, companies at the scale continue to do pretty well. Josh: And when you think about the companies at the scale and who they're run by, Josh: there's, there's none with the more cracked engineering team, Josh: leadership team, entrepreneurship team, then SpaceX. When you look at these Josh: top five, it's like Microsoft. Josh: Are you really more bullish on Microsoft than SpaceX, even though they're priced

Josh: the same? Like when you look at Microsoft, what they're working on. Ejaaz: Like Boomer Tech, Josh, you know this now. Josh: Yeah, it's like, really when you look at these companies, which companies are Josh: going to change the world five years from now and which companies are not? Josh: And if I'm just comparing based on market caps, the answer is certainly not Josh: Microsoft. It looks a lot more like SpaceX. And there's a chart that I wanted to show.

Josh: It looks a little funky on the screen share. You're gonna have to work with me here.

Josh: But basically there is this presentation by this guy named Thomas LaFont. He's an investor. Josh: I saw this on the All In podcast where he was talking about the probability Josh: of a company continuing to do well once they reach a certain valuation. Josh: So in the case of a unicorn, the odds of a unicorn going from a $1 billion company Josh: to a decacorn, a $10 billion company is 8%. Josh: It's possible, but not probable.

Josh: The same doubles in the case that a decacorn goes to a centacorn. Josh: So if a company is worth $10 billion, the odds of it going to $100 billion, a 10x multiple. Josh: Go from 8% to 13%. And then from Decacorn, which is 10 billion to a hundred Josh: billion, Ascenticorn, they almost triple and 30%. Josh: So one in three companies who reach $10 billion will make it to a hundred billion

Josh: dollars. And you could see how this chart kind of trends in a very clear trajectory Josh: where it's nearly exponential.

Josh: And you have to assume if a company can reach a trillion dollars in market cap, Josh: the probability of it hitting a decatrillion dollars is probably double it's Josh: at least 60 so that means over one in every two companies that have hit Josh: one trillion dollars in value are likely to hit 10 trillion dollars in value Josh: and when you look at the companies that are centicorns today is that what they're called like

Josh: trillion dollar companies there's not a ton of them and when you look at the Josh: ones that do exist the ones that are most interesting that are most compelling Josh: to look forward to in terms of Josh: products that they're going to make are companies like spacex are companies Josh: like tesla who are going to revolutionize what the physical world looks like Josh: in a way that we've never seen before.

Josh: And that's why I'm particularly excited. That's why I am recommending to my Josh: friends like, hey, not financial advice, but I'm very bullish. Josh: I'm all in on this company for the next, however, pretty much an infinite amount Josh: of time until things change. Josh: And that's kind of the reasoning is there's just a high probability that the Josh: success they've had will continue.

Ejaaz: I think with a lot of these companies, it's also Ejaaz: So it's just time-based, and it's based on whether they're going to execute on the entire vision. Ejaaz: Like, a lot of us don't actually accurately predict what the world's going to Ejaaz: look like six months from now. Ejaaz: Like, who knows? Like, we could have AI models that cost a fraction of what Ejaaz: they do today that are frontier that would undercut Anthropic and OpenAI and

Ejaaz: would kind of blow this entire AI bubble up. There's so many different moving factors.

Ejaaz: Now, with Elon specifically, and I'm talking about Elon and his company, Ejaaz: so not just SpaceX, but we're talking about Tesla, Ejaaz: they have a huge collective vision to not only build out the number one AI company Ejaaz: and AI model, but to also own the infrastructure and highway to space, as well as the Ejaaz: world's largest gigafab chip fab on earth, Ejaaz: as well as manage all the humanoid robotic side of things as well, Ejaaz: the physical manifestation of AI.

Ejaaz: Now, those are kind of vaguely the correct ambitions to kind of carve out what Ejaaz: the world's going to look like in the future. Ejaaz: Now, can one man pull it off between two or three companies? Ejaaz: That remains to be seen. His track record so far has proven that he is able Ejaaz: to scale hardware from zero to one. Ejaaz: He has yet to prove it with software specifically. And this cursor acquisition, Ejaaz: I believe, is going to be a good test of that.

Ejaaz: And then following that, it's whether he is able to merge all of these together. Ejaaz: A lot of that is going to be based on time. And so unfortunately or fortunately, Ejaaz: a lot of this is going to be speculation. It's going to be hearsay until we actually see the goods.

Ejaaz: And we're not going to see some of the goods until as early as maybe a few weeks Ejaaz: for the new crop model, but a few years in terms of space travel, Ejaaz: putting AI data centers in space, and training frontier models for a fraction of the cost. Ejaaz: So it's going to be a time thing. If you're patient, if you're a long-term investor, Ejaaz: then buying SpaceX stock at any price right now kind of makes sense.

Ejaaz: But if you want to Ejaaz: I'm not again, not investment advice, but the way that I would kind of like Ejaaz: approach this is just kind of like purchasing chunks over time over the next Ejaaz: six months, there will be again, 54% of the supply to 54 to 60% of the supply Ejaaz: unlocked by the end of the year. Ejaaz: That's a lot of supply, there'll be a lot of volatility. Ejaaz: Right now we've seen the volatility go up for the price, but it'll equally go

Ejaaz: down as well is my expectation. So just be careful out there and you know, Ejaaz: make sound decisions. That's it. Josh: Yeah, I'm gonna be hyperbolic again, like I have been and just continue to say Josh: that Tesla and SpaceX will be the most valuable company in the world. Josh: It's like, I'm looking at this list right now and there's NVIDIA, Josh: Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, SpaceX, TSMC, Broadcom, Saudi Aramco, Samsung, and Tesla.

Josh: And when you think about those companies and the products they're going to make Josh: and the future trajectory of them, none of them are even close to one, Josh: the operational capability in the terms of like physical hardware. Josh: And then two, just in terms of leadership and what the people have actually Josh: been able to accomplish.

Josh: And when you consider a world in which SpaceX and Tesla get rolled into a single Josh: entity, and those are competing against NVIDIA, who's currently the most valuable Josh: company in the world, it's like, come on, there's, it's like not even close. Josh: And a $10 trillion valuation in that world seems bearish. Josh: I'm like, 10 trillion? Dude, they're going to hit a trillion dollars in revenue Josh: just with one of those two companies four years from now.

Josh: If it's trading at 100 times the revenue, that's like, I mean, Josh: the numbers get pretty large really quick. Josh: And I think this is an important thing to note that this has happened many times Josh: in the past. I mentioned Saudi Aramco currently sitting at number nine. Josh: At one point in time, it was the most valuable company in the world by far. Josh: And that was the ceiling of the perceived market caps that a company could reach.

Josh: It's like, okay, Saudi Aramco is number one. Let's say Apple, Josh: for example, surely Apple can't be worth more than Saudi Aramco. Josh: They make oil, they power all the energy of the world. Josh: The reality is that Apple released the iPhone, Apple became the new most valuable Josh: company in the world, and they quadrupled Saudi Aramco.

Josh: And the perceived ceiling of what these companies are able to reach in terms Josh: of market cap continues to go up as they continue to unlock new value in the world. Josh: And what company is more likely to unlock more value than one that is exploring Josh: both domestically, but also interstellarly? Josh: And I know it's just it's an exciting company to bet around. Josh: There is an incredibly compelling case for a really fun and very valuable future Josh: when these plans work out.

Josh: And there's no team better equipped to actually execute on that vision. Josh: And that's why I cannot recommend SpaceX enough to all of my friends. Josh: Again, not financial advice, but like, holy shit, this is the best chance you Josh: have as we go into this like next generation of just like humanity in general Josh: reality. It's very exciting. Clearly, I'm excited. Clearly, I'm a big fan.

Josh: I'm sure people disagree with a lot of these takes, but hey, Josh: come catch me in five years, buddy.

Ejaaz: Yeah, I mean, I'm going to take not the other side of that, but I'm just going Ejaaz: to point out that there are names on this chart that haven't IPO'd yet. Ejaaz: You're going to have Anthropic. I see OpenAI is on here, but you're going to Ejaaz: have a ton of other Frontier AI labs that IPO soon. Ejaaz: Google is nowhere to be seen here, and they are currently the only vertically Ejaaz: integrated company that absolutely nailed distribution and the infrastructure

Ejaaz: play itself. I think that is very slept on. Ejaaz: And then NVIDIA itself, I think a lot of people are counting NVIDIA as just Ejaaz: the GPU company, but hey, Jensen's already released his CPU line, Ejaaz: which he said he was never going to enter, and now he has, and now it's earning Ejaaz: $20 billion of revenue a year. Ejaaz: He's already working on the battle-tested, space-proof GPUs that he's going

Ejaaz: to be putting in Elon's rockets to get out there. So I think there's going to Ejaaz: be some competitors in the future. Ejaaz: And it's just a matter of keeping an eye of what is going on and how it's all being executed. Ejaaz: Again, I think Elon is one of the best executors in the world right now. Ejaaz: So very bullish for all his companies. Ejaaz: But there'll be some competition. I don't think it'll be a clear road. Ejaaz: But ultimately, up only, I think.

Josh: Yeah, well, I mean, definitely no competition in space. Blue Origin is the next Josh: closest. And they got a decade of cash enough to do, especially after that most recent rocket blew up. Josh: So in that world, at least they got their monopoly for a good bit of time. Josh: But I think that the consensus is generally like all of these companies are pretty remarkable.

Josh: Like when you look at NVIDIA, Google, Apple, like there's a very clear case Josh: that they're going to continue to make more money as this world of abundance gets unlocked with AI. Josh: And there's a good chance that everything just continues to go up. Josh: And maybe there's certainly going to be some bumps along the way. Josh: But the value generation created by these companies is really staggering. Josh: So I think that's the update.

Josh: That is the post SpaceX IPO clarity, perhaps. I'm serious. Josh: That's everything that's worth knowing. That's everything... Josh: I think that's been going on in Josh: the last week. Is there any final updates before we let everyone go here? Ejaaz: No, I'm excited about the new Grok model. Ejaaz: You know, speaking transparently, Grok has kind of fallen behind pretty massively.

Ejaaz: And I believe like Anthropoc and OpenAI have pretty much reached escape velocity Ejaaz: with Fable 5 and the upcoming GPT 5.6 model. Ejaaz: Oh, I hope that comes soon. I know. And these models are effectively building Ejaaz: themselves. So once you have a model that builds itself, you know, Ejaaz: you kind of like run away with it. you run away with the trophy. Ejaaz: Grok is probably, or SpaceX AI, is probably the only company left that could Ejaaz: potentially join the ranks.

Ejaaz: And they're going to do it via the curse acquisition. So I'm excited to try that model out. Ejaaz: For those of you who are listening to this, to Josh's relentless bullishness, Ejaaz: to my sobriety test, are we wrong? Josh: Who's wrong? Ejaaz: Who's right here? Come at us. Let's hear you in the comments.

Ejaaz: Tell us if we're wrong. If you're out there and you're an absolute Elon hater Ejaaz: we also love and want to hear your feedback right um if you've listened to this Ejaaz: if you're listening to this on youtube if you listen to this on spotify apple Ejaaz: music wherever you're listening to it Ejaaz: please make sure you subscribe or that you're following us please give us a Ejaaz: rating however way you feel about us it helps us out pretty massively leave

Ejaaz: us a comment as well you can do it on spotify as well um Ejaaz: and we have a newsletter where we post twice a week we almost have a hundred Ejaaz: thousand of you we post a long form essay which is like a thesis it's going out Ejaaz: uh today as you're listening to this episode, as well as weekly highlights at the end of the week. Ejaaz: But aside from that, that is all. And we will see you for our roundup. Josh: See you guys so much for watching. We'll see you guys next time. See you.