Everyones Losing Their Minds Over The Stock That Gets You Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX

Josh: Just last week, on March 19th, a fund called VCX was listed on the New York Josh: Stock Exchange at $31 per share. Josh: Less than a week later, just this morning, it hit $575. Josh: That is an 18 times gain in just five trading days. And the underlying portfolio, Josh: it's only worth about $19 per share. Josh: But those $19 include Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Databricks, Anduril.

Josh: It's a 30 times premium on the actual asset. So we have to ask ourselves the Josh: question, has the market lost its mind or is it telling us something. Josh: Is this actually an opportunity? This story is pretty outrageous. Ejaaz: This is the most insane IPO or direct offering story ever. This fund, Ejaaz: Fundrise Innovation Fund, has a genius strategy.

Ejaaz: So like you said, they own Anthropic, OpenAI, and a bunch of other top AI companies, Ejaaz: but their stock actually gives you access or exposure to these underlying companies. Ejaaz: So if we look at some of the percentages, Anthropic, they own 20% of the fund Ejaaz: is positioned in Anthropic. Ejaaz: 17.7% of the fund is positioned in Databricks, 10% in OpenAI, Ejaaz: 7% in Anduril, 5% in SpaceX.

Ejaaz: Basically, all the big hitters that are private AI companies that are, Ejaaz: most of them actually presumed to IPO this year, they already own and give you Ejaaz: access to via their stock VCX. Ejaaz: And the trajectory has been insane. Ejaaz: Like you mentioned, they went public six days ago. Ejaaz: Within the first day, their stock price went from $19 to $125. dollars. Ejaaz: Four days later, it hit $350. And then just this morning, it hit $575,

Ejaaz: which values them at $19 billion. Just insane. Josh: Yeah. And it's a testament to, I think, how much market demand there is for this stuff, right? Josh: Like when you think about your dream portfolio, all the stocks that you want Josh: to own, this is pretty much everything. Josh: It's the top AI labs. It is the top space company. Josh: All of them, like you said, are going public. And this chart is outrageous. Josh: I mean, Just this morning, it hit 575.

Josh: It's cooled off now to only be 394. We have to ask the question, is this insane? Josh: Is this a testament to what's coming for the IPO market? I guess if people are Josh: interested, how can they participate in this? There's a lot of things we need to unpack here. Ejaaz: So before we actually tell you how to get access to this thing, Ejaaz: I want to break down their positions a bit more because I think their investment Ejaaz: strategy is pretty genius.

Ejaaz: So if we look on the right side of the screen here, we have a sector breakdown. Ejaaz: This is from their official website, which explains the reasoning behind why Ejaaz: they bought these particular companies. Ejaaz: 43% of the fund is invested in artificial intelligence. Ejaaz: So that's the actual model frontier AI labs. You can find that in Anthropic and OpenAI. Ejaaz: But then a bunch of their fund, 23% of the fund is invested in data infrastructure.

Ejaaz: Now data is an extremely core part of AI. If you don't have good data, Ejaaz: and if you don't have a lot of good data, you can't really train good models.

Ejaaz: You've got compute on one side and then data on the other side. Ejaaz: So their investment in Databricks is actually super smart in that way. Ejaaz: But then they also invested in aerospace. Ejaaz: And it's not like a small position either, like 5% of the fund is in aerospace. Ejaaz: So with a $650 million nav, that's like not insignificant.

Ejaaz: And they're choosing SpaceX, which as we know, probably going to be IPO-ing Ejaaz: as soon as potentially the next couple of months and are launching data centers into space. Ejaaz: So they're also thinking forward as well as currently what the major AI labs Ejaaz: are. But then there's also some interesting investments in gaming. Ejaaz: I noticed that they have a 3.5% position in Epic Games, who just did mass layoffs Ejaaz: at their company just yesterday.

Ejaaz: And although that's not really great news, typically when a company does layoffs, Ejaaz: it makes them leaner and boosts the valuation. Ejaaz: Epic Games is still a private company, but is one of the biggest gaming IPOs Ejaaz: that are presumed to go ahead this year. Ejaaz: So they've really picked and chosen their companies very strategically here. Josh: It's a good portfolio. And the price action reflects that. I think I need to

Josh: instill some FOMO. Again, this is not financial advice. At this point, Josh: this is just outrageous to buy into. Josh: But it is fun to look at the day-by-day insanity so we can kind of evaluate Josh: how much interest there really is about this stuff. Josh: On the first day when it opened at i think it was 31 it closed at 125 so it Josh: was already up like 300 and then by day two, Josh: it was up to just about $200. By day three, $315.

Josh: And then by day four, it hit $575. With the market cap surging well past, Josh: I think $15 billion for something that's worth just about $650 million. Josh: So you're trading these things at about 30 times what they're actually worth. Josh: You're essentially spending $575 for $19 worth of Anthropic and SpaceX and OpenAI. Josh: This is crazy. So why are people doing this?

Josh: Like, what is the actual cause? I mean, at this point, you have to assume maybe Josh: it's just a penny stock GameStop situation where people want to just pump something. Josh: But there was some truth to this, right? It's like, there has been this IPO Josh: drought that we've had over the past few years where all of these companies Josh: are creating a tremendous amount of value.

Josh: Every day we talk about three companies, right? It's like, we're talking about Josh: Anthropic, we're talking about OpenAI. Josh: Google is publicly traded, but SpaceX isn't. And a lot of the companies are Josh: creating all of this value. Josh: There's trillions of dollars sitting in private assets that the public doesn't have any access to.

Josh: The only way you could do this generally is to go through a third-party vendor Josh: who sells these things called SPVs and you could buy shares within them. Josh: But it's not a real legitimate way of getting on the cap table, Josh: getting real shares. It's not great. So clearly people are desperate. Josh: This is the first real instrument that I've seen to find product market fit. Josh: There are a few others. I know ARK Invest has one that's not publicly traded.

Josh: I know you could buy into it quarterly and you get your quarterly dividends Josh: but there are some experimentations just this very clearly is the biggest winner so far. Ejaaz: It's a mixture of extreme and maybe treacherous financial engineering, Ejaaz: as well as desperation for the retail market to get access to these companies.

Ejaaz: It is no secret, like Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, Anduril, all these companies Ejaaz: are massively drooled over by Ejaaz: the retail market, but no one can get access into any of these companies. Ejaaz: And the major issue with private market valuations is typically they would achieve Ejaaz: a reasonable valuation and then IPO and give retail access. but now private Ejaaz: valuations just keep going on and on and on. I mean, look at Uber, look at Stripe.

Ejaaz: They have remained private for years now and their valuations are extortionate Ejaaz: and we don't know if they're ever gonna want to go public because they just Ejaaz: have so much cash to spend on their existing business. Ejaaz: So the incentive to give retail access isn't really there but the financial Ejaaz: engineering is kind of crazy. Ejaaz: So only 10% of their shares are publicly available for float to purchase right now.

Ejaaz: So the market is actually pretty illiquid. for the investors in the fund that Ejaaz: purchase shares before the direct offering, they're kind of locked up right now. Ejaaz: But I see that the lockup is probably around six months, which actually isn't that long. Ejaaz: Typically, it's like a year and then like a cliff after that. Ejaaz: So you're going to have a lot of this shares or the float increase pretty drastically after six months.

Ejaaz: So there is a lot of financial engineering that's going on here. Ejaaz: To your earlier point, there are some similar funds that have launched recently Ejaaz: that are similarly structured like this. Ejaaz: The most obvious one probably being Robinhood's Venture Fund One. Ejaaz: And if I look at that stock chart right now, I've got to pull it up. Ejaaz: It didn't fare well after the first month.

Josh: No, it did horrible. And I think the reason why is because it's missing those crown jewels, right? Josh: When you look at the portfolio, what it's made of, it has boom aerospace, Josh: it has, I believe, Databricks in there. It has really impressive companies, but it's missing.

Josh: The spacex it's missing the anthropic it's Josh: missing the open ai it doesn't have those companies Josh: that really everyone wants and it seems like the Josh: world really only wants these three things yeah and if you don't have that included Josh: you're not going to get reward for it and that's what happened with the robin Josh: hood fund now there is something that i do want to talk about briefly because

Josh: anytime an asset goes up 18 times in five days you have to start asking the Josh: question how close are we to the top here. Josh: Like I know a lot of people listening to the show, they've been in the crypto world for a while. Josh: They've seen this happen many times. And we must ask the question to our Oracle Josh: here at Polymarket, what is the chance of a recession? Josh: Just out of curiosity, because generally this type of frothiness begins to happen towards the top.

Josh: And thankfully, Polymarket is saying the chances are actually kind of low, Josh: 35%. Now, granted, these have come up over the last few weeks from 20% to 35%. Josh: So this is a 35% and climbing. Josh: But still, there's only a one in three chance, according to the very brilliant Josh: people at Polymarket, who are saying that we'll even have a recession.

Josh: So that does make me feel good. I think it feels hard to imagine the AI bubble Josh: kind of exploding prior to these IPOs actually happening. Josh: This can get us into our next news of the day about SpaceX. Thank you, Josh: Polymarket, for sponsoring this section of the episode. Josh: But SpaceX, we just heard news from yesterday that their IPO is actually far Josh: closer than we think. They just filed...

Josh: The rumors are that they are going to be filing officially as early as next week. Ejaaz: Yeah, exactly. So there's a bunch of rumors that broke out today. Ejaaz: And actually, just this morning, rumors broke out that Goldman Sachs might be Ejaaz: actually leading the entire IPO. Ejaaz: So once they file, it's pretty much confirmed that they're going to be IPO-ing relatively soon. Ejaaz: The rumored date is, I think, June or July of this year.

Ejaaz: So happening pretty quickly. and they're going to be raising a staggering $75 Ejaaz: billion and will value them at IPO at around $1.75 trillion. Ejaaz: Now, earlier Polymarket that we looked at, I believe had the odds of them going Ejaaz: above $2 trillion by the end of the day, pretty high, like 52%, Ejaaz: I believe, I was looking at it earlier.

Ejaaz: So this is going to be one of the biggest IPOs of the year, but it begs the question, Josh, Ejaaz: What is that going to do to Fundrise's stock price, right? Ejaaz: Like if SpaceX does go public, I know they only own only 5% of their fund is actually in SpaceX. Ejaaz: But if people can get access to SpaceX publicly, why would they own Fundrise's stock?

Ejaaz: Now, maybe it's because they still want to have exposure to Anthropic and OpenAI. Ejaaz: But the point is, as these companies IPO and Anthropic and OpenAI, Ejaaz: by the way, are rumored to also IPO this year, I don't see the value of their stock keeping up. Josh: Yeah, well, I can't see it keeping up even today. Like, I would be shocked if Josh: by the time we publish this episode, the price is still high.

Josh: Because I mean, this is just an unbelievable premium. And I can't in good conscience Josh: recommend anybody go and buy the stock at this premium. Ejaaz: No. Josh: But it is, I think, more than anything, a testament to the demand. Josh: So when SpaceX does IPO, I mean, that $2 trillion number is outrageous. Josh: That would have been the most valuable company in the world not too long ago. Josh: And that's what they're going to launch at.

Josh: So I think it's just a testament to how much demand there Josh: is for this new paradigm of company for the spacex Josh: for the open ai for the anthropic and how big of a deal it is going to be once Josh: they actually go public it's looking right now based on the general timelines Josh: that if they do file next week it's going to be an early june early to mid-june Josh: ipo for spacex yeah and i'm i'm putting my money on june 9th which is six slash nine.

Josh: I think just mimetically speaking, very strong. But yeah, I think it's... Ejaaz: Yeah, actually so, right? What do you think is the over-under of Fundrise being Ejaaz: above its peak that it reached today? Ejaaz: 575 bucks by the time SpaceX IPOs? Josh: Oh, 0%. This thing is worth $19. I mean, that's what this is worth. Josh: It's worth $19. It's not worth $575. Josh: Everything on top of it is just hype and craziness and insanity.

Josh: Sure, there does deserve to be a premium on this, right? It's because you get Josh: private access to, or you get public access to private shares, Josh: but that premium should not be 30 times. I mean, that's just crazy. Josh: Particularly because, I mean, the fund, what, has 5% SpaceX allocation?

Josh: So as we begin to wrap up this episode, I think if you're not buying this crazy Josh: premium priced asset, how can you actually responsibly get exposure to these companies? Josh: And there are a few answers that are pretty interesting. The first one being Google. Josh: We always talk about Google on the show. We love Google here. Josh: And Google is actually a majority shareholder of SpaceX. They own a ton of shares for a public company.

Ejaaz: Yeah, I think they own around between 7% to 10%, which is nuts. Ejaaz: But also Amazon is the other company, right? They own about, Ejaaz: I believe, 17% or actually 22% of Anthropic. Ejaaz: So these are publicly traded companies, arguably more robust and stable than Ejaaz: Fundrise's latest IPO or DPO. Ejaaz: So it might make more sense to own Ejaaz: these companies to get exposure to the potential biggest IPOs this year.

Josh: Yeah, I mean, Fundrise, the fund has 20% exposure to Anthropic, Josh: Amazon has just about the same amount, except they own the actual equity on Josh: the cap table in a meaningful way. Ejaaz: Wait, wait, wait. There's an important distinction here. Fundraiser's fund has Ejaaz: 20% of the fund positioned in Anthropic, but Amazon owns 20%. Ejaaz: Actually owns 20%. They're very, very different things. Much bigger position in Amazon. Yeah.

Josh: Yes. And I think Amazon is a really interesting company too, Josh: as we head into IPO season, because they stand to benefit from all of the headwinds Josh: of this on the robotics front, where we see humanoid robots. Josh: What is their primary use case right now? Josh: Working factory, sorting packages. We see the like, Josh: All of the Anthropic annual run rate doubling every couple of months. Josh: They're making a tremendous amount of revenue.

Josh: They'll start to get close to what Amazon is doing if they continue to grow at this rate. Ejaaz: Well, there's also Amazon's AWS business, which inferences most of the AI queries that are sent. Ejaaz: Like all of Claude's stuff gets sent to AWS servers. Ejaaz: OpenAI is structured to deal with them, which they're launching soon. Ejaaz: All of like Google stuff also kind of routes through them as well.

Ejaaz: So they're just a beast and people are valuing them as a retail e-commerce platform, Ejaaz: which is still the most ridiculous thing ever. Ejaaz: Look at Amazon's next quarterly earnings. I'll bet you now that AWS revenue is through the roof. Josh: And crazy breakthrough that we might have to talk about. We'll definitely be Josh: talking about on the roundup tomorrow.

Josh: But Google just released this unbelievable paper that shows how they're able Josh: to compress these models, use what, six to eight times less memory and still Josh: get the same output with no loss. Ejaaz: But also 8x faster. So you could have the same number of GPUs, Ejaaz: but run a Frontier model eight times as fast just because they wiped out memory. It's just insane. Josh: So now Amazon Web Services, because far more powerful, I mean,

Josh: GCP becomes more powerful with Google. everyone is just becoming far more powerful. Josh: And what's interesting about Google and Amazon is they both have their specific Josh: TPUs or accelerated GPUs that they're using that are kind of out of the NVIDIA sphere. Josh: So there's a lot of bullish catalysts that are coming. Josh: As we wrap up, maybe we could talk about just a few ways that you can actually Josh: get exposure to these companies, because I've spent a lot of time trying to

Josh: acquire shares. There's really three. Josh: You go to a company like Forge Global or Hive, or there's a few others, Josh: and this is by no means an endorsement.

Josh: I i haven't used them but they offer these spvs you Josh: can go in a lot of times the minimum investment size is like 25 50 Josh: 000 you can try to get access to these shares at a premium but there's pretty Josh: high fees it's not the best way of going about it the second way is you can Josh: just buy into these funds like vgx from fundrise and they give you public exposure Josh: i know arc invest has a fund that's very similar where it's not publicly traded

Josh: on a daily basis but you can collect quarterly dividends, Josh: And then the third way is just getting exposure through the publicly traded Josh: companies that have exposure, like Google, like Amazon. Josh: That's probably it. And then we just hope that all these companies will go public Josh: and create true alignment, because that's not fair.

Josh: Anthropic wants to align everyone, but what about the financial alignment, Josh: dude? They're just raking in all the cash and not giving any to us. Ejaaz: There actually is a fourth option, in my opinion, which is you can just wait Ejaaz: for these companies to IPO. Ejaaz: I do think a lot of them can IPO this year and relatively soon. Ejaaz: We've got SpaceX that might IPO in early to mid-June.

Ejaaz: And then Anthropic and OpenAI are kind of racing together right now to IPO by the end of the year. Ejaaz: OpenAI yesterday announced that they shut down Sora and are condensing and rediverting Ejaaz: compute and team resources to build the best coding and chatbot LLM. Ejaaz: This isn't insignificant. The Ejaaz: reason why they're doing this is they're prepping themselves for an IPO. Ejaaz: Anthropic's doing the same thing. They're on track for, I believe $80 to $100 billion ARR this year.

Ejaaz: So all the numbers look great, and they want to go public as soon as they can. So Ejaaz: Maybe the best strategy is also to wait. You can see where the public values these companies. Ejaaz: You can buy it maybe not on the first day, but second day, third day or fourth day.

Ejaaz: But also these companies could shoot up. So if you do see a good opportunity Ejaaz: to get access to, you know, the SPVs or through Fundrise, as Josh just mentioned, Ejaaz: just be aware of the risks before you do so. Josh: And I think that wraps up the episode today. I mean, it's just a crazy story Josh: that's happening right now with this fund of going 18x.

Josh: It's just a testament to how crazy the rest of this year is about to get with Josh: all these companies going public. Josh: Um, I am not participating. EJS, do you have any interest in participating in this? Ejaaz: I will not be. No, hang on. Let's, uh, let's do one final check. Ejaaz: And Josh, we are at 422, close to 420. It's up 35%. Josh: So by the time this episode goes live, is it higher or lower? What are we thinking?

Ejaaz: Okay. Uh, I think it's higher because I think the hype will catch on for a couple more days.

Josh: That's my bad. Okay. Well, I, I cannot advise anyone touch this with anything Josh: more than a hundred foot pole, Josh: but that is the episode today just Josh: a fascinating story i thought it was really fun to just check in share Josh: this like crazy news catalyst that's going on how to get exposure Josh: if you are really curious and what the likelihood is that we're in Josh: a bubble which is lower than i think most people expect so all good things happening

Josh: here if you enjoyed this episode please don't forget to share it with your friends Josh: um comment on youtube give us a five-star rating subscribe to our sub stack Josh: where we publish newsletters twice a week they're very helpful very informative Josh: and yeah thank you so much for watching and we'll see you guys in the next episode see you guys.