Q1 Earnings Predictions

Hey everybody, Andy Swan, Landon Swan, the two founders of Like Folio, coming to you with our earnings preview week. And we're heading into Q one, the biggest quarter of the year. Uh, we've got some big, bold Q one predictions for you. Let's get into it right now with market pulse. Landon, you shared this one with me. I think it's probably uh one of the most important that we're going to have. It's a theme that we've already hit on a few times.

But you think in Q one we could have what's really a surprise winner in artificial intelligence. That's right. I you know what? One of my sort of sub-predictions for Q1 is that we're gonna have a massive increase in the number of companies mentioning AI in their earnings report in the attempt to to bolster investor confidence and to increase that share price. And I think that's gonna lead to a lot of things.

analysts and investors writing off, right? Just send, uh, whatever. It's all we hear about. And due to that, we're gonna have one of these non-tech companies who are actually using AI and utilizing it to increase their in increase their bottom line by gaining more customers, streamlining their operations.

They're gonna mention it, but it's gonna go under the radar because everyone else is mentioning it and they're actually gonna get things done. And I think this is gonna be a big winner for Q1 is a non-tech company. surprising with AI innovations that really bolster their earnings. Yeah, I think it's really the last half of twenty twenty three was all about the chipmakers and that picks and shovels of artificial intelligence, but now

We're getting into the real meat of it. And I think there's we've already spotted a few companies. And I think you're right, Q1 will spot even more that are Not creating AI technologies, but using it to make their business better, to make their product better, to make their uh processes more efficient and reduce costs. I think it's going to be a huge trend throughout 2024. I really love the surprise.

AI winner prediction. The next prediction that we have is really in the small cap space, which was overlooked until the last part of twenty twenty three. But Landon, we're seeing a small cap company. We can't give away the name of it. Obviously, this is for our subscribers, but I want to tease it out there because I think people's attention should go to small caps and this. Chart is proving why. Yeah.

Anytime you see a chart like this, you get excited. It's up and to the right at a very sharp angle. It's gonna it's producing right now a very high score. They don't report just yet, but Usually when you get a score this high this early, it's gonna hang around and maybe won't be as high as ninety one when their earnings come out, but

Seventy at the worst, maybe something like that. Very excited when this company reports. And again, you just gotta follow the data and the data's screaming at us right now. Yeah. This is a wellness company. Again, it's a small cap company. The if you're listening the chart that we're showing is the number of mentions of the consumer demand and and web visits for

this company specifically and it's just sharply up and to the right. Earnings score of ninety one at the moment. We'll see where it is when they actually report, but we think we're gonna be making a really nice aggressive bet on a wellness small cap company. I think there'll be a bunch of those. throughout the year, not necessarily in wellness, but in the small cap space. I think that there's some really pent up demand. Some of these are spring loaded to to trigger in Q1 and beyond.

All right, the next one we gotta get into, I think that there's a little bit of undue market euphoria because we had Really seven stocks that absolutely dragged the rest of the market up with them throughout twenty twenty three. In fact, responsible for I think Close to one hundred percent of S P gains really came down to just seven companies.

So while everybody's toasting champagne and looking back on a great year of 2023, we do see um some trouble ahead, especially for at least one or two of those. Seven companies. Some on the AI space may have gotten a little ahead of themselves, but we're also just starting to see. some deterioration of the consumer that worries us a little bit because not that things are going to turn around and necessarily go into a recession. I'm not sure we're there yet, but the way that those

Big seven stocks behaved in 2023. It's almost like they're priced to perfection for 2023. Agreed. And yeah, just like you said, it it's so concentrated that there's this false sense of security that the markets are doing really well when it's just a few companies. So yeah, I'm very interested to see how this plays out, but we definitely see some trouble, potential trouble on the horizon. Yeah, and I think the the way that we can

get through that and the way that we can think about that at like folio is I think it's going to become even more of a stock pickers market outside of those seven. I think there's gonna be some really big winners. But speaking of which, we also love it when people email into us, andy at likefolio.com, landon at likefolio.com. We get these emails all the time and occasionally we like to bring it up. Ask the swans.

So today's question on Ask the Swans is Which companies did you see winning the Q4 holiday spending spree? And we're just gonna give it away here, Lannon. Yeah, I I think it's I think it's generous of us, but this is really good data. We it's too good to to hold on to. At the top, we'll just start there. Lulu doing extremely well, plus twenty percent on a year over year basis for that holiday season. Decker outdoors, uh I don't know, surprise

I didn't see this one coming. Obviously, this is why we track data. This is yeah, Deckers Outdoor owns Uggs Boots. And I'm gonna challenge everybody that's listening to go home tonight. If you've got kids. Grandkids, nieces, nephews, ask them if they know anyone that's bought Uggs in the last three months. And I think you're gonna get a 100% yes response. And then I on the counter side of that. Ask them if anybody's buying Crocs anymore.

Okay, so I think that's a perfect that's going to be an awesome pair trade. Decker's outdoor ticker symbol, D E C K, absolutely booming with consumers. Crocs, C R O X. going the wrong way, uh potential pair trade there in the footwear space. Agreed. I love that one. Under Armour is actually another one that took me a little off guard here. I love to see that one at plus thirteen percent.

Very interesting with all that's happening with Nike, Foot Locker, Dicks, all of that. It's gonna be that one's gonna be one to watch for sure, but I love to see them making a comeback. Yeah. And then I was talking to Megan, who's the head of our research desk. I said, we've got to ask the swans. Let's throw Brantley in there, Megan, and ask her. And she said, you know what?

I've I've done a lot of doctors visits. She's got a newborn. I've done a lot of doctors visits, been to a lot of medical facilities, and everybody's wearing figs. F-I-G-S is absolutely popping in the healthcare sector with those professionals. They are wearing figs. And the other thing that she said is we're just not going to count out Ulta Beauty anytime soon. They have really laid the foundation to continue to benefit from the massive boom in skincare.

Skin wellness and cosmetics form some awesome partnerships, and the consumer data continues to stay strong on that. Love it.

So that's our holiday winners. That's gonna wrap up today. I wanna encourage everybody, make sure you check out what we're doing at Like Folio from an earnings season pass perspective. It's a product we have.

dedicated to trading earnings. I think if you have a portfolio full of stocks that could be headed for trouble, you want to know it. If you're looking at stocks that are on this on these lists and and popping with consumers, you want to know that so that you can get in earlier before earnings. And if you're in any way interested in trading, we've got some unbelievable ways for people to minimize risk.

Maximize return and keep duration short with earnings trading, something we've been going through all week as we go into this Q1 season. It's one of my favorite ways to trade, Landon. And with that, I think we'll wrap it up. Landon, any thoughts? as we head into this kind of beginning of the Q one earnings season. I I think the main thing is follow the data.

Y if you've got a hunch from your friends and family, then check it out on like follow. And if it matches up, go for it because the data is there to tell us things that we don't know and it's just not wrong. It's millions of people telling us their opinions. what they're doing. And it's just a very valuable source of a source of alpha and just insight onto the market.

Awesome. Love it. Thank you all for joining us. We'll be back with you soon. Make sure that you're following Likefolio and all the applicable channels and that you're getting our free daily drop. Go to likefolio dot com to make sure that you're getting that. Thank you.