¶ Gold's Parabolic Rise and Bitcoin
Gold is doing what it's always done at the end of a monetary cycle. It's going parabolic. But here's what 99% of investors still don't understand. Every time gold peaks, Bitcoin wakes up. We're watching the same rotation that's happened twice before. Money rushing into the oldest store of value on earth before flowing into the newest one.
Gold represents the past, heavy, slow, and controlled by kings. Bitcoin represents the future, light, free, and controlled by no one. This is the bridge moment. From gold to digital gold. Gold has gone parabolic this year, absolutely crushing it. You know,$2,600,$2,700 at the beginning of the year, got up over$4,300 per ounce.
A massive move. It's good news for those of us who like hard money and who like scarce money and who like to store our value and our wealth in things that governments can't print. Or easily confiscate. It validates a thesis that the world is thirsty for, hungry for, hard money. So what happens? when that old school hard money peak. Well just look at this. Last two times it's happened, gold on the bottom circled. Last two times gold has peaked after an exponential move higher.
Bitcoin has gone on a massive run immediately following that. And we've just gotten an enormous exponential run in gold. I don't know if it's over yet. But once it is and it starts to pull back or consolidate. That fear money, that money that's seeking scarcity, that's seeking durability, that's seeking a hard money. It's gonna flow very likely into Bitcoin as it has before. You can see if we get a move similar to the moves of the past, where gold
¶ Bitcoin: The Superior Digital Gold
leads Bitcoin. I think you could see Bitcoin$160 to$500,000. Wouldn't surprise me a bit. Why do we like Bitcoin so much compared to gold? Gold has the track record. Bitcoin does not have centuries of track record of being hard money store of value. Bitcoin is more scarce than gold. Gold supply will continue to inflate by at least one percent per year.
Probably two to three since the price has spiked for a very long time because there's now more incentive to mine more and find more. Bitcoin, twenty-one million is all you're ever gonna have. Bitcoin's verifiable. Gold is more difficult to verify. You buy a gold bar. You're really placing a lot of trust in the person selling it or using some sort of lab process to verify that it's purity. Bitcoin, very easy to verify. There's millions and millions of
People on the Bitcoin network, thousands, hundreds of thousands of miners verifying every single transaction, verifying the owner of every Bitcoin. So you know that you're getting the real deal. Bitcoin much more portable. I can take Bitcoin to Tokyo tomorrow by remembering twelve or twenty-four words in my head. I can send it to someone else in less than ten minutes at a very low fee. If I wanted to send five million dollars worth of gold to someone,
It would be a process. It would be expensive and it would be heavy. And I probably would run into some problems or some hurdles at the borders. Bitcoin is almost infinitely divisible, whereas gold it gets very difficult in very small pieces. And both are extremely durable. I like Bitcoin better than gold. I think it is
the superior gold. It's the digital gold. Almost everything else has been dematerialized in the world and gone digital. It's time for that to happen. It's starting to happen with money and with store of value and with gold. So we like Bitcoin better than gold and Bitcoin is currently worth In total, market cap of Bitcoin is one fourteenth. The size of the market cap of gold. So the thesis is really simple. Bitcoin is superior to gold, it's the digital gold, it's the future gold.
And the value of all the Bitcoin in the world is very likely to be greater than the value of all the gold in the world at some point in the future.
¶ Future Outlook for Bitcoin Investment
How fast that happens, I don't know. It's one of the reasons why I'm so confident. having some of my wealth stored in Bitcoin because I believe that Bitcoin as this transition happens will become closer and closer to the value of gold and getting there as a 14x. The old gold gets the money first. The new gold gets the money second, and the new gold has 14x that it needs to move in order to catch up with the total value of the old gold. That to me is a very compelling bet.
Don't get frustrated that gold is outperforming Bitcoin. In fact, I think it's wonderful that gold is performing so well because it validates the thesis that we have had. that the last thing you want to be in is dollars or fiat. That the world is moving away from that the debasement, the debt et cetera, of the current system is so unsustainable that the world is willing to shift into gold as a hard store of value. at an unprecedented pace, trillions of dollars.
The same exact logic that gets gold moving that way is what will move Bitcoin in terms of its price, its value, et cetera. So Bitcoin's the better gold. It's the digital gold. They're both going to win. Bitcoin just has a 14x gap to catch up in order to be at parity with gold. And that's where I think the world that's where I think it deserves to be for now. So
Gold has done its job. It's absorbing the fear capital, just like it has done for centuries. And it's doing a very good job of that. It's a great asset to own. But it's too big and it's too slow for the next generation of capital. It's just too heavy. When institutional investors realize they can achieve gold-like security. And scarcity. with Bitcoin's velocity.
The floodgates open. It's happened twice in the past. I think it's going to happen soon again. This time the bridge is built, the crowd is ready to cross. Gold was the store of value for the physical age. Bitcoin is the store of value for the digital age. We're going to stay bullish on both. And we'll think about Bitcoin having the much higher upside from here. So I'm Andy Swan. Hit me up, Andy.
at likefolio.com or on X at AndySwan. Love hearing from you guys, getting topic ideas, et cetera. And that's it. Till next time. Thanks.