Thank good morning, in happy new year to all of you you're listening to Let's Talk Money here on eight ten one O three one WGY. I'm Ryan Bouschet, will be your host this morning, and grateful and appreciative to all the listeners that are tuning in week after week, or if you're a newer listener or first time listener, welcome to the show. We have a great one today. I think a lot of good information as we kick off twenty twenty four. It's amazing to even think that it's here. Twenty twenty four.
Twenty twenty three felt like it flew by, but you know, fortunately for investors, twenty twenty three was a great, great year, especially if you were stayed in the markets, if you didn't panic and you reverted back to the old, time tested saying of time in the market, better than trying to time the market, because that would have been a hard thing to
do. But coming off a great year like we had, you know, it's good to be into twenty twenty four and to uh, you know, for the markets, maybe didn't kick it off as as hot as we would have liked, but you know, there's more to be thankful than just a few days in the markets, and we know that a little volatility is normal.
So for those listeners out there that may have questions you want to talk about the markets, if you want to talk about any you know, financial planning, retirement planning issues, or topics, give me a call one eight hundred talk w GUI. That's one eight hundred eight two five, five, nine four nine. So I have a lot that I want to talk about and discuss with all of you. So we have a great show. We'll
talk about. You know, this past week in the markets, we uh we had, you know, believe it or not, we had a nine week wind streak snapped this week. Markets were down off a little bit, but again nothing to panic about. I think it's pretty normal volatility. So
we'll talk a little bit about that. We'll talk about the December jobs report came out yesterday, kind of saw pretty wild swings in the market as I think investors digested the news and thought about what that really meant for you know, now and into the you know, near to intermediate future, especially as it relates to interest rates, the FED and how it all all works into the economy. So we'll talk about that. You know, I'll spend some
time in talk about twenty twenty three. I don't think, you know, with the new year, we want to be looking ahead. As always, it's always about what's ahead of us, what's in the future, whether you're setting personal goals or setting financial goals and trying to align your portfolio for what's
ahead. But I always think it's it's great to do some reflection back and take a look at, you know, what really drove twenty twenty three, so we can you know, hopefully make better decisions as we move forward. So we'll do a little recap of twenty twenty three, you know, talk about some of the difficulties of being invested in as I said earlier, time in the market being so much more important than trying to time the market.
We can talk a little bit about you know, this soft landing. I mean obviously that's that's been the talk of you know, most market commentary. I think that is the consensus right as we head into twenty twenty four. We can talk about what that looks like. You know, are we still on track for that? Does this latest jobs report impact that at all? And you know, what's really kind of what's important for the FED in what they're trying to accomplish for you know, the next few months, but really
the next few years. We'll talk about the fat we can we can talk about you know, they're gonna have a January meeting, they're gonna have a March meeting. Expectations are for well a few As of a few days ago, the overwhelming expectation was for some sort of cut to interest rates in March. That's changed a little bit over the last few days. And we'll talk about why and kind of what we're looking at and how we view the markets. Here we can talk about too, you know, is your is your
equity strategy lined up with what's going on in the markets. And I've talked about this in the past, and you know, I see it more and more with new clients as we bring them onboarding and taking a look doing a portfolio analysis. You know, it's almost like sometimes we're set up for what was happening a few years ago, and uh, you know, talking about how you really need to align your strategy for again what's ahead and what's not
behind, and how that can impact returns as time goes on. So again, phone lines are open, Give me a call one eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight, two, five, five, nine, four nine. And so, as I said, we had a first down week in the markets, and believe it or not, we had nine winning weeks to close out the year. It's just just really an incredible way to end twenty twenty three. And I know there was so much concern as we
entered twenty twenty three. We'll talk a little bit about that later in the show. But for the year, I mean, we just had a really really you know, superb close out. The last two months or so saw SMP almost reach all time highs and NASAC still NASAK had a better year for twenty twenty three, but didn't quite get back to their all time highs. And you know, as again as we as we look ahead, that could
actually be a good thing for investors and for the markets. But for the week we had, the SMP was down about one and a half percent. You know, fortunately we had a little bit of a rally as we ended Friday, but for the week, the sp down one and a half, The Dow Jones is down about a half a percent, the NASTAC was you know, the big loser if you will, for the week down three zero point two percent, again maybe just giving up some of the strong gains that
that we saw there back in twenty twenty three. You know, of note which I think is really just as important right now and in this current environment, is when we look at, you know, the ten year treasury and we'll talk about bonds, we'll talk about fixed income, we'll talk about the
interest rate environment, how the FED is impacting that. But you know, the we talk about the Fed in in what the Fed is doing, and that impacts right your your one month, two month, three month treasuries, impacts overnight FED funds rate which is at between five in a quarter to five
and a half percent. But we saw incredible fluctuations with the ten year really all through twenty twenty three, and in particular as we closed out the year, which I think really sort of helped propel the markets forward as we you know, those last like I said, those last nine weeks of winning weeks, but we saw the ten year this week recover a little bit, was up almost twenty basis points almost point two percent, and that's going to be
an important number, I do think as we as we enter twenty twenty four, you know, we were back over four percent for the ten year and not only for the markets. Is that ten year treasury so important? But it's but it's important for consumers as well, right, I mean, that's where mortgage rates are tied to, that's where consumer lending rates are tied to. So it's really really important as important as what the Fed does and what the Fed sentiment is. You know, the longer end of the curve doesn't
always move in in lockstep with what the Fed is doing. So watching what the ten year is doing and how that impacts the overall market is is pretty important in today's kind of market environment. It's not always the case, you know, I would say through the the you know twenty teens, where where rates were artificially low, there wasn't a lot of volatility in the interest rate
market. Probably not as important, you know, some of the FED liquidity, quantitative easing, you know, don't fight the FED certainly played a role. But you know, now more than ever, we're seeing so much volatility in the interest interest rate environment that it really does have a big impact on what the markets are doing. It has a big impact of how we're viewing markets in the portfolio. So it's it's really been a pretty critical figure in
data point for us to watch. And so seeing that kind of come back and bounce back this past week, I think has a you know, an impact on the markets. And it's not surprising to see the tenure go up as the rest of the market went down this week because that was a pretty common thread and trend that we saw in twenty twenty three. I'm going to go to the phone lines. We have Steve in Massachusetts. Steve, good morning, thanks for calling in, Steve. Are you there, yes,
Hey, good morning, good morning. What can we help today? Can you oh here? Okay, so, yes, perfectly. My wife works for a company. She has a four oh one k there, and the other day we were having conversation and she said that the value of her four oh one k had dropped significantly since twenty twenty and I thought that kind of didn't make sense. You know, that it had lost say ten thousand dollars
during that time. The question is can she take money from that four o one k and move it and create a second furrow one k with a private company such as your own. Yeah. So, so it's a good question, and you know, we've you know, we get it often and we work with clients on this quite frequently. So it depends on how the company four oh one K is set up, not every four oh one K,
you know, they're very similar. There's there's obviously the ARISA laws that help govern these four one K plans, but it's important as what's written up in the plan documents and so what most four one K plans do allow is what they call an in service distribution and what that means is, you know, typically if you leave a company or you leave a job, you have the ability to either roll that four oh one K to maybe your new employer's four
oh one K, or you can roll it into a IRA rollover because you've left that company. If the plan allows for an in service distribution, so she's still working for the company, but they have a language that gives you the ability to do an in service distribution. You are able to do a IRA rollover, so you can move it out of that four to one K plan and roll it over into an IRA again if the plan allows for it. Sometimes there's age restrictions on that, so sometimes they'll only allow it for
if you're over a certain age like age fifty. But it really comes down to how the plan document is written up, and I think that's something that either an HR representative or someone from the record keeper of that plan could help answer. But like I said, the key the key language would be an in service distribution. Right, Does it make sense that her poral one K
would be down in the last three and a half years in value? Yeah, that, you know, the only situation where that could potentially be the case is if it was a very conservative meaning you know, maybe uh, you know, over fifty percent or maybe more invested in fixed income or bonds. You know, for the most part, we're seeing you know, even you know, both in the US and even globally, we're seeing you know, at or near all time highs for most of the equity indexes. So
you know, there's been some ups and downs, right. We had a huge drop in twenty twenty during COVID. It was short lived, but we did have a big drop. Twenty twenty two was also you know, a major in the markets with the SMP was down over twenty percent. But you know, with this last year recovery, you know, most equity markets are up, but you remember interest rates have come up so quickly in the last
two years that there's still been some challenges. Twenty twenty two was the worst year for fixed income you know, probably ever for the most part because of how fast rates. So if she's in a very conservative holding those the market value of those bonds or bond funds could have come down to a point that
maybe they haven't fully recovered yet. But that would be probably the only scenario where I could envision over the last you know, three plus three and a half years, where she's actually lost money over that time, because, like I said, the overall market has has come up quite strongly over that time stock market. So she needs to get a complete copy of the agreement on the one K and then have it reviewed by by a private company such as
your own. I mean, would would be a good idea, Yeah, that that could be helpful, or you know, she could she should be able to get the answer, hopefully, you know, directly from like I said, the the record keeper whoever, whoever holds that four one K plan, or maybe an HR representative that could help navigate those questions. And like you said, the big question to ask is is an in service distribution available?
The plan documents may have it as well, but it should be almost as simple as just asking, you know, a representative from from the administrator of the plan. Great, wonderful. Well I'll let her know. Thank you. Yeah, best of luck with that. Oh well, we appreciate that. Thank you so much. Yes, by now all right, have
a great day and the happy New Year to you and your family. Great notes, And it was a great question from Steve, And as I said to him when he first asked it, we run through this quite often with clients or prospective clients, because you know, the good news is with with four one K plans is that you know, I would say, as we look at them and as we monitor them and we analyze them for clients, you know, they've they've gotten much better over the last five to ten years,
going back, you know, especially in the early two thousands, and even like I said, as far as ten years ago, we saw a lot of a lot of high priced funds, a lot of high priced mutual funds in these plans that oftentimes, you know, they don't keep up with you know, the indices with the benchmarks, and you're paying you're not only paying for you know, high costs for the funds, but you're probably paying for you know, all the administration of the plan, if there's you know,
advisors on the plan, and so over time we're seeing you know, and it's happened because you know, some of these some of these plans have
actually been kind of brought to court over you know, high costs. You're seeing plan costs come down, which is a great thing, but still you you still may not have a lot of options, you know, Unfortunately, you may not have a lot of guidance as you go through that, and that can be a critical critical element as you're setting up your four one K plan if you're not getting proper guidance of what types of investments are right for
you. You know, I obviously don't know the full extent of Steve and his wife's situation with how it's been invested, but you know, one of the areas that that could have been detrimental over these past few years is maybe being invested too conservatively and maybe that wasn't really the you know, best approach in terms of what those long term financial goals are. So it's it's always important to you know, always analyze, take a look at that, see
if you have options. Like I said, for the most part, you see four oh and k uh rollovers when someone's leaving a company, if you're if you're leaving or going, you know, to a new job, maybe rolling it to the new four oh and k or rolling it to an outside
IRA. But if your plan, if you're working for a company, and maybe you don't have the best options for your investments, or you don't love the fund offerings, you know, certainly ask if you have that in service distribution available to you, and then you have more control over those funds.
You pay less fees because you're not now you're not paying the administration and the record keeping fees, and you have more options and more control, and you know, for the most part, I think I think that can be a good thing for most investors. So Steeve, appreciate the call, thank you for listening, and we always appreciate those listeners who do call. And so again, phone lines are open. Give me a call one eight hundred talk w g Y. That's one eight hundred, eight two five, five,
nine four nine. We're gonna go back to the phone lines. We have Jody in Florida. Jody, good morning, thanks for calling it. How's doing great, how's those stocks doing? Witch stocks? The market, the market stocks and basically just a regular stocks. I think I'm up and down. Yeah, so so we'll talk about that. So so we had it. We had a down week, but you know, twenty twenty three was was a great year to be invested in. There's still you know, I
would say a lot of strength in the overall markets right now. But yeah, so we we had a little bit of a tough week. I think, you know, we'll talk a little bit too, because we're coming up in the next few minutes to our news break, So I don't want to get too much into it now because I think there's a lot to kind of piece together as we look at our market outlook and as firm. I actually just was writing our market commentary for the coming year, and there's just so
many issues and variables at play right now. And I think I was talking a little bit about the ten year treasury, how important interest rates are and in some of the Fed decisions has been, and how much of an impact it had to close out twenty twenty three, right, you know, I think what happened in the last few months of the up and down, they
go up and down, up and down. They they're always going to go up and down, and that's the Yeah, that's the price of being a long term investor, right, It's you know, if you get the short term, there's a lot more fluctuation in volatility, a lot more of those
ups and downs that you allude to. But when you take a step back and you look over time, whether it's five, ten, twenty years or beyond, which for most of us that's our time horizon, that's the timeframe we're looking at, you know, those ups and downs become a lot less volatile, and in that path upward and you know, up into the right, as we say, is a lot more clear versus kind of when we
look at it from a short term basis. But no, overall, you know, i'd say, the markets, you know, notwithstanding the the latest kind of pullback this week, which again which was which was probably pretty minor pretty small the grand scheme of things, but you know, we we did have a great close to the year, and a lot of that was was, you know, base I think on on what the Fed's commentary was right
more so than what the Fed was actually doing. Because the Fed, you know, they haven't caught they haven't done anything with interest rates since July. But we did see a lot of you know, anticipation and changing language from
the Fed, and that's really what was so critical too. I think this latest run up in in kind of the softer stance that the Fed took, you know, one driven by inflation coming down, and we saw better than expected inflation numbers over these last few months that in turn led to interest rates
on the longer end. Talking about that ten year treasury coming down. You know, when you look back in October, I don't think it closed over five, but we did hit it intra day high on the ten year just over five percent, which again when you go back to earlier in twenty twenty three, we were at three point two after fears of Silicone Valley Bank. And again talked about this in my quarterly letter that we wrote for clients, which we haven't sent out yet, probably go out next week and we'll have
that up on our website. But just so much fluctuation, so much volatility in the interest rate area, and again that played a big role in the
overall markets. And I'll talk about that after the break because we are nearing the news break, but kind of when you look at what the interest rate market was doing, what the equity markets were doing, you know, inverse correlation between the two, but certainly a lot of overlap in terms of what was happening and how that was really driving the overall sentiment of the market. So I appreciate the call, Jodi, thank you so much for calling in.
And as I said, it's you know, these short timeframes, the ups and downs feel a lot more dramatic than when you step back and take a look. And you know, I think even important to this week, right, you know, the SMB was only off one and a half percent,
NASAQ was down over three percent. But you know, when you think about what we typically see in an average year, right, doesn't happen every year, but in an average year, we see about a fourteen to fifteen percent sell off from the market's highs to the market low So it's not uncommon, even during bull markets to see some volatility and to see some sell off at different points in time. So always important to keep that in the back
of our minds and to you know, be able to withstand that. And I think being you know, having the fortitude and the understanding that you know, there's a cost of being a good long term investor, and in that cost and that price is dealing with some of the volatility and if you can, you know, weather the storm and sleep good at night, having a good plan, it's all the more important to being a really good, successful long term investor. So again, thank you for the call, Jody.
You know when we're gonna head to the commercial break soon. When we come back, give me a call. Our phone lines will be open one eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight two, five, five, nine, four nine. We'll talk a little bit more about twenty twenty three kind of lessons that we've we've learned, and we'll take a closer look on what our expectations are as we enter the year. So you're listening to Let's Talk Money here on eight ten one o three one w g Y And welcome
back to Let's Talk Money. Aaron eight ten and one oh three one WGY. I'm Ryan Bouchet and I am your host today. Appreciate all of you listeners joining me. I have a great, great rest of the show lined up for you. We got another you know, twenty five minutes or so together, So again, appreciate you all tuning in and listening and appreciate all the listeners who do give us a call and ask great questions. It helps, I think with different topics and questions. I'm sure most of the listeners
are find themselves in or or may have themselves. So if you do have any questions you want to give me a call about the markets, you have any financial planning topics questions you may have, gn me call one eight hundred talk WGY. That's one eight hundred eight two five five nine. So we talked a little bit about kind of the markets this past week the end of
twenty twenty three. I always, as I was discussing to start the show, it's good to have a look back at times, right if you're doing it for the for the right reasons, and you know, taking a look at you know, not so much what happened, but really discovering the whys.
Right. I think that's the most important element when we're being self reflect whether it self reflective, reflective on the markets, portfolios, you know, and what we do in managing the portfolio is always great to kind of figure out, you know, what do we do right, what do we do wrong, what do we get right? What do we get wrong? But not so much, you know, the what of it, but really truly
the why of it. And looking back on this year in the market in twenty twenty three, I mean, it's really a fascinating year for for so many different reasons. And we had so much whether it was a quarter or you know, for six four to six month periods where we really saw different elements of the markets. We had, you know, some some great highs, We had some some tough times going through the third quarter, right we
had another market correction, we had to pull back over ten percent. Certainly didn't feel good at the time, and but you know, as it always does, we saw a rip roaring recovery to close out the year. And we look at twenty twenty three, you know, and I was kind of put this into our quarterly market update, and uh, it just asked the question, like, go back to January first, twenty twenty three, what was you know, what was your mindset as an investor? What were you
what were you thinking at that time? Because it was a hard time to be invested, right, it was a really really challenging time to be in the markets. We just came off of a really pretty ugly twenty twenty two in every part of the market, right, It wasn't just a stock sell off. We had a massive stock sell off. We had a bear market. The S and P down twenty five percent at its lows, the Nasdaq was down thirty five percent at its worst. We had the worst year for
fixed income, you know, in the last one hundred years. It was just there was no place to hide, and it was a really challenging year. And not only that, but we got through twenty twenty two with a pretty good relatively you know, probably pretty great really when you think back economy, and we had market lows and pretty much everyone was declaring that, hey, we're going to enter a recession in twenty twenty three. I mean there was not you know one, there very few if there were any sort of
optimistic for cast for what the economy had in store. Everyone was predicting recession and it was a pretty you know, challenging time to be in the markets. Fast forward to you know, last week and in the end of twenty twenty three, and things just could not have played out any differently than what those forecasts and probably what a lot of you had felt as we entered twenty twenty three, Right, we had a great year in you know, the
SMP was up back around twenty four to twenty five percent. SMP actually really bottomed a little bit before the NASDAC did in twenty twenty two. The SMP bottomed in about October of that year, and so as we got to the end of twenty twenty three, SMP actually just about reached their all time highs. As on a price basis, I think if you factored in dividends, it actually did return and get back to all time highs, but from a
price perspective, almost got back to to all time highs. NASAK kind of an amazing year, still below all time highs, but up over forty percent. Fixed income market to end the year, you're recovered with rates coming down. We were just in the economy buy and large is still relatively strong. We did not enter that recession. We did not see that that sharp pullback
that everyone predicted. So, you know, it's just fascinating when you look back and picture yourself again twelve months ago, kind of where you felt, how how that you know where your feelings in, what that approach was, And it goes to that point of being time in the market versus trying to time the market, because that would have been impossible if you were waiting for,
you know, that positive news or the positive headline. Even though it was a great year, you know, we weren't really seeing a still a lot of doom and gloom through most of the year. We'll get back to kind of looking at kind of how the year fluctuated. But I'm going to go back to our phone lines. We have Meyer and Clifton Park. Good morning, Meyer more thanks for taking my call. Certainly, how are you today? I'm doing great and you could it be better? Yeah? Thanks,
I appreciate you taking time talk with me. Basically, I was, I don't know, shaken financially by a divorce about three years ago. I stopped my investment just well sort of regained some stability, but I took that time to with just accumulating cash instead of putting it in the market. And I'm looking to start back up. So I have a bunch of cash sitting on the sidelines and was hoping, you know, you could talk me through
maybe prospects for both shortened and long term future. I'm sixty two and desperately looking to stop working. Currently my income is half of it is from a payroll job. W two wages and half of it is is ten nine to nine wages. I do some side work and right now I have I probably have close to I guess, I guess current value is close to probably about a million dollars in in IRA, and about half of that is is invested
in low risk. Half of it's probably a little higher risk. I'm very risk tolerant, but given my age and my desire to retire, maybe I shouldn't be. And then just this past over the past couple of months, with the bottom market the way it is fixed fixed income market, I took you know, maybe maybe two hundred thousand dollars and put it in some five
percent bearing notes. But I still I still have a bunch of money too that you know, shouldn't be sitting in the bank, and I'd like to get work for me, but I have no idea what the smart thing to do is that this in my life right right, It's a it's a great question. And you know, this is something we we tackle often with clients in terms of maybe they have a cash accumulation or cash event or liquidity event
in coming up with what the right approach with that is. And you know, I think there's there's a number of ways to start thinking about it, and frankly, I don't think there's one right way for every person out there. I think it's really going to depend on the situation. You know, maybe percentage of your overall net worth that is in cash or you know, something more risk averse, you know, something more stable, and really thinking
about kind of what the long term goals are with that money. You know, at your age, I will say, you know, we have we have plenty of clients that are you know, either approaching retirement. In retirement where you know, doesn't necessarily mean you have to be super conservative, you
know. I think this current interest rate environment supports being a little bit more conservative than it has in the last right fifteen years or so, because we've just been in such an ultra low rate environment that there wasn't much yield you could get from the fixed income or you know, less risky investments in your portfolio. That has certainly changed, So that does change I think the calculus
on it a little bit. But you know, we're still planning at your age, We're planning for thirty plus years for our clients to need and use that money. So sometimes being too conservative can be a risk in of itself as well, So we take that into account. You know, if we looked at, hey, you're sitting in cash. We want to get some of that, you know, a portion of that into the market. What does that look like? Well, history tells us that your best approach to
doing so is getting it invested. Right, the markets up more than it's down on an annual basis. The market's going to be up seventy five percent of the time as we look back and take history into account, So you know, that would be one thing. You know, however, I do think at times, you know, market dynamics, you know, risk tolerance of a particular investor comes into play, and so you really have to kind
of determine what is that best approach. Are you, you know, more inclined, you know, kind of look at it from particular framework in terms of a you know, what what you're able to tolerate? You know, are you able to risk putting everything in all at once to see a you know, five ten, fifteen percent market declient Because you know, as much as I would say from a from a future outlook right now, I think
there's a lot of optimism. I think strength strength and strength. Right we we've had strength in the market right now, we're seeing all time highs and not only here but internet nationally, and we prefer US equities, but it's still a good sign that we're seeing other markets participating. We saw market breadth open up a lot more to close out the year in terms of other you know, small and midcaps that really didn't participate in most of the year,
they had a really strong close to the year. So we're seeing a lot of market participation, which is generally a pretty strong sign to bull markets. And I wouldn't let us getting near or at all time highs were you, because again, that's typically a good thing for a sustained bull market run. So I think there's there's a lot to be optimistic about as we saw on this last week. Doesn't mean that there's not going to be some volatility involved
as well. You know, given what you know, strengthened in the economy, strengthened the labor market, we're probably a little bit in a good news could be bad news for the market because you know that strength may postpone the Fed pivoting on interest rates, and I think the market is really really yearning for that to come down and if we see you know, like I said, on the long end, that ten year treasury going up, which I think there's still potential for that to go higher than what it is. It's
just over four percent. Now, if that goes up more from here, you know, that's a little bit of a headwind I think to equities. But again by and large, we're we're more optimistic on where the stock market is. So you know, are you more inclined to you know, want to getting that all to work and you know, taking advantage of you know, if we get further growth in the markets. But again we don't have
a crystal ball. There's there's always that risk of the unknown and doesn't make more sense to maybe put it to work over you know, three to four months, because you know, there'd be less regret if there was a market pulled back. Everyone is a little bit different. Like I said, the numbers would support putting it all to work, but that you know, for less risky or you know, someone who doesn't have as much risk tolerance,
sometimes that doesn't always make sense for them. They're not comfortable doing that. So it's really you know about looking at the big picture, how much of that cash is really part of your overall net worth. What are we saving towards what's the you know future have in store? How much you know income do we need? How much maybe from a cash flow perspective, do we
need? So there's so many, so many factors at play that it's hard to give you know, you should do exactly this or exactly that, because you know, it really comes down to, I think a deeper conversation and a deeper understanding of the full situation. Yep. Yeah, And I mean I'm quite frankly, I'm a little hesitant to start taking income out of investments, you know, if I can make it stretched right, even though, like I say, I'm really desperate to retire, just start start enjoying.
You did mention international stocks and saying that you weren't all that down on them, but that you still prefer US. I've long preferred US and tried away from global or international. And even though I'm a little more pessimistic maybe than you, at least in the next year or so on domestic, I still am am more pessimistic international and globally, and I just wonder if I should be and would like your thoughts on international versus domestic. Yeah, so so
international versus domestic. I think where I come out is that if you look historically, there's usually big swings between international and domestic or outperformance, and that goes back. You know, you can go back thirty forty years to look at those numbers. Over the last yea, ten, twelve, thirteen years, US has has greatly outperformed by and large. And so you know, this drives many people to say, you got to need more international, you
need more international. I take a little bit of a different approach and our firm as a you know, investment committee forilosophy in terms of what's driven those returns over the last thirty forty years and why has there been fluctuations? Well, you had a lot of fluctuations, you know in the late nineties early two thousands in terms of international strength because you know, commodities were really strong,
commodity prices were high. That benefited a lot of emerging markets. You had a lot of you know, globalization, We had a lot of you know, offshoring of manufacturing and different elements that really drove their economies. When you look at the economic growth internationally right now, you know, US is you know, for the most part, you know, there's probably pockets where there's some strength, but for the most part, the global environment economically speaking,
is not strong. I said, you know, right now, there's strength in terms of international stock markets because just because purely because they're nearing or approaching all time highs, so we're seeing breath there. But from an economic standpoint, there is no doubt that the US is in a much better spot
right now. The other thing that's super important in what I fall back on is that when you think of European countries and European stocks, they're they tend to be more you know, financial staples, they're not these growth drivers. And then emerging markets, you know, by you know, the biggest part of emerging market stocks is China. China is a mess right now. They don't support their They have some growth companies you think of like an Ali baba,
but they don't support these growth companies. They actually try to reel them in. And when you look at really the strength of the overall global stock market over the last thirty forty years, and I wrote about this, you know maybe in the third quarter of this year, it is driven by these innovative companies it's driven by you know, of the top fifty performing stocks globally over the last fifty thirty years, thirty five of them thirty five of the
fifty, so seventy percent of them are US domicile companies. These are the growth drivers. This is why you know the NASTAK or QQQ should be such a big element of a core portfolio. These are the companies of tomorrow. These companies aren't going away. And you know this isn't the growth companies of the late nineties, where you know, the valuations were way way above where they should have been, they weren't earning money like they are today. You
know, these growth companies are still leaders. They're still driving our markets. You know, we saw it like with the Magnificent Seven all through twenty twenty three, and that innovation is fostered in the US. So that's why, like by and large, I'm just a much bigger proponent in US markets. Plus, the fact of the matter is almost half of the S and P five hundred companies revenue is derived globally, so you know, if there is
global strength, these companies are gonna are gonna benefit from that. But as we see, you know, economic landscape right now, I would say the US economic landscape is a lot stronger, and I'm much more comfortable knowing that these US companies, where innovation is is is rewarded, it's fostered. You know, that's a place to be invested. And we still get exposure internationally
from these companies. But you know, unless you're looking for you know, real kind of more defensive or you know, a little bit of that diversification. And like I said, diversification is a great thing. I'm all for it, but I think, you know, if you just base it on those historical ups and downs, I think you really have to ask yourself why did those ups and downs happen? And what are we looking at moving forward. So I'm in the same camp as you are, where I'm much more
comfortable right now from a domestic investing perspective. Okay, that was some great perspectives. Thank you, thank And like I said, it sounds like you have a lot to figure out and go through in your situation. And if you ever want to go into a little deeper dive, you know, separately, feel free to give our offices a call. I think we could really help you in your situation as you laid it out today. Yeah, that's what I was going to say. Is it sounds like I really could use
your office as help. But thanks for thanks for doing this service for all of us as being on the air. Appreciate it absolutely well. We appreciate you tuning in and thanks for the call. Is great question, great, Oh bye, I by now all right, full minds are are open. Give me a call one a hundred talk w G Y. That's one eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine. And it was a great,
great question. And really sort of the complexities that that Meyer is dealing with right now is not uncommon for a lot of the clients that we work with, and I would love to give you know, this is what you need to do or this is the best approach to the situation, but it is so hard to determine that which is some of the facts and circumstances because you know, everyone is everyone in everyone's situation is so different that really we we
you know, do not take a cookie cutter approach as we we you know, come up with plans and approaches with our clients. I'll say, you know, from an investment standpoint, we're very very important to be consistent through our portfolios, how we're managing investments, kind of our approach to investment philosophy
and what those portfolios look like. But when it comes to planning, which is so intmental in the work that we do and how we engage with our clients from a planning perspective, there's just so many different factors at play, and it's really all about you know, understanding the situation, getting to know our clients and figuring out what makes the most sense and you know, having
cash on the sideline and getting that to work again. You know, the numbers would would say and dictate that you know, getting it to work all at once is the best thing, right, I said it earlier. It's all about time in the market, right. It's not timing the market, but it's time in the market. But you know, not every investor also wants to, you know, put their money to work all at once. And you know, think back to just the third quarter of this year.
We had a great year in the market, right, the markets were up, you know, the S and P up twenty five percent, but you know we had a you know, we had a correction in there the third market. We had a correction and if you wouldn't be able to stomach you know, putting all your money to work all at once, and you know, seeing a twelve fifteen percent decline, which is what we average each and
every year. It's so important to point that out. If you can't stomach that, then maybe you know a little bit soler of approach is better for you. Doesn't mean it's it's right or wrong, and you might give up some gains, but you have to understand that. You have to, you know, think about what is most important to you and you know what you're willing to give up. Again, it's all about you know, I said it earlier. It's kind of that price to pay and and sometimes it can
be on the upside. Sometimes it's on the downside with the volatility we see. But like I said, if you're investing for the long haul and you're you're a long term investor, it's all about that time in the market, not out of the market. And we saw it, you know, twenty twenty three was a perfect example of that, where everything seemed to be stacked
against us. We had a pretty pretty super year in the markets and rewarded those those investors that were able to you know, block out the noise, block out the headlines, and you know, invest when it when it felt like it was the worst time to be invested. We actually following the third quarter, when we did our third quarter webinar for clients, we actually had a I put in the you know, I don't know if CNN derives this,
but it might be the CNN Consumer Fear or investor fear Index. And at that time, again it was, you know, the markets were down over ten percent, and this was in early October, so you know, just before probably early to mid October, probably just before the markets took off to close a year. I think the fear index was about thirteen percent, right, And that's bad, right that you know, the lower you go, the more fear there is. The higher that that number is, the
less fear there is. And it was down to like twelve or thirteen percent. Had just was in a free fall over the previous weeks because we're getting so much volatility in the stock market. And I remember I remember saying it and showing the chart because I showed kind of that how that fear index does versus the equity markets. And I remember saying, you know that is these
are typically the best times to start getting invested. And so whether it was you know, October of this year, just before the run up to end the year, or whether it's the start of twenty twenty three when all hope seemed to be lost, if you can weather those storms, if you can keep the long term perspective, if you have a plan for anything you need in the short term, which is so critical to the work we do with our clients, it makes it that much easier to be able to you know,
keep that take a step back, and keep that long term in perspective. So we're into our last thirty seconds of the show. I appreciate all the callers today. It was great, great questions, great talking points and topics, so appreciate your participation. You can catch us tomorrow Sunday, or you may be may be snowed in, or you may be shoveling pop in the headphones. You can listen to us at eight am tomorrow. Again, thank you for listening today. Have a great new year, have a great
weekend. So let's talk money here in eight ten in one O three one wgy