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recently lost her life. Steve I know mentioned the news on the shows last weekend you know, Nicole was an incredible financial advisor, really a brilliant professional, and most importantly, just a kind, caring person who had a gift for connecting with people. You know, she connected with clients, colleagues and friends. I would consider Nicole a close personal friend and just a great person. And you know, yesterday we gathered to celebrate her life, and it was just.

from New Jersey to the area. So it was great to hear stories about Nikki, how she was referred to by many of her family, just to see a different side of Nicole, and it was great to spend time with friends and family, you know, and our thoughts continued to be with their family, especially with her husband, Pete and their two young children. You know, while we're heartbroken and we are by her passing, you know we're also very grateful that she was in our lives, even for

only a short period of time. You know, she made a difference in the lives of so many and we will continue to carry on her spirit. And you know, she did make strong connections with everyone in our firm. And you know, we're firm, and you know, I like to say we we work hard, and we do because you know, our work is very serious work, when you know, and our our team is made up of professionals who have advanced designations, and we take our work very very seriously.

But we also play hard, and we play hard together, and we we not only spend a lot of time at work, we spent a lot of time outside of the office. And you know, Nicole has host hosted Game Night, and only a weekend ago, several of us were together at the Mayor's Cup of Hockey game. We've got some

RPI and Union alumni at the firm. I happen to be an RPI alum, and uh, you know, many of us gathered at that event, and you know, so we do have deep connections and Nicole will be will be missed for sure, but I just wanted to share some of those thoughts there. You know, twenty twenty five, you know, marks some significant milestones for our firm. And you know, we've.

see going forward too. We're excited for our future. So a lot to be thankful for us we headed to twenty twenty five, and one is I want to make sure I encourage listeners show. I'm here really to answer your questions. We always say when it comes to your money, there is no dumb question. And also I guarantee if you have that question, another caller is thinking of that. So certainly pick up the phone. You can reach us at eight hundred talk WGY. That's eight hundred eight to

five five nine four nine. So this morning, you know, we're gonna talk about the markets, investing, some financial planning topics, and whatever questions you call in with. So, you know, start with a market update. You know, Friday session, you know, wrapped up, put a bookend on the month of January, and it closed out a volatile month, you know, for the financial markets, and you know, despite the choppiness, the

markets ended the month broadly higher. However, this week, you know, especially Monday and then Friday, which I'll talk about both days a little bit more detailed, you know, highlighted just

how reactive investors can be to new data, you know. So, you know, Friday yesterday, in the final hours of session, you know, we saw heightened volatility after the White House announced that it would impost tariffs on key trading partners, particularly China, Mexico and Canada, and you know, there's talks of the tariffs being delayed, but the White House came out and clarified, Nope, they will not be delayed. They

will be effective in February first. So so there'll be a twenty five percent tariff on Canadian and Mexican products and at ten percent on Chinese. Now, I think we'll hear more and more over the next few days to a week. Is you know what products that will particularly apply to. There may be some carve outs and exclusions, but you know, well, you know, we started the day with a very positive day in the markets yesterday on Friday, after some solid corporate earnings. You know, Apple came out

with earnings on earnings on Thursday. After markets we had some solid PCEE economic data and markets were Friday, we're we're positive, we're doing great. And then you know, the news of the tariff came out, and you know, we saw like in the Nasdaq, you know, at one point was up almost a point and a half one point five percent, but closed down about point three percent for

the day. This S and P similarly shed about half a percentage, and the Dow dropped point eight percent, partially by the news, but also partially you know, buy some you know, disappointing earnings from Chevron, so you know, so that that was the news on Friday. You know, Monday, we saw a huge sell off in tech as you know, the news of the Chinese startup deep Seek, you know, unveil a breakthrough in cheap AI models, and you know

that certainly sent some shockwaves through the tech industry. You know, this was it did kind of come out of nowhere, this Chinese startup, Deep Seek, for at a very cost effective manner, really redecent, you know, showed some AI models that performed very well and you know, continued the idea of open source and it it it hit the tech sector hard. You know, Nasdaq declined by over three percent

on Monday. Navidia, we know as the largest supplier of AI chips, fell nearly seventeen percent on Monday and lost a whopping five hundred and eighty eight billion in market value. I mean, think about that, lost five hundred and eighty

eight billion in market value. That's by far the highest market value that's ever been lost in a single day, you know, more than doubling the previous record of two hundred and forty billion by Meta so it was a initial shock to the tech sector and you know, certainly a reminder that there is there can be volatility in the markets.

you you have to expect some volatility. And you know, we have a joke in the office. One thing that Steve always promised his clients is there'll be days where he loses the money. And that's just the facts. You know, if you're in the markets, there's gonna be ups and downs. You know, on an average year, you know you're gonna have a fourteen to fifteen percent sell off from the peak to the trauh and that's just a normal year.

So uh, you know, we have to say as investors, you know something, don't overreact, right, And you know, certainly this week, I would say both on Monday and Friday, we saw an overreaction in the markets certainly. You know, I think as the markets digested, uh, you know Monday's uh information about deep Sea you know, certainly.

a dominant hold on. And and you know, I think what we heard from even Tim Cook on Apple's earnings earnings conference call is hey, when you've got a player who's driving costs out, and that's what Deep Seek is showing is you know, I think they spent under ten million dollars in developing their their models, and we're hearing, we're hearing some of the AI rivals in the US talking about hundreds of millions of dollars. So again, I think the belief is is you've got a player who's

driving costs out. And then continuing kind of with the open source idea. I think others in the industry say, there's could be positive effects of that, Right, It's going to be faster and easier to develop AI applications, and that can as a whole, can have some very positive impacts in the industry. And I think Apple's been you know, very cautious, I will say, in their introduction into AI, and they have been really holding back on making some

significant capital expenditures in that area. And I think in some ways this may be validating, uh, you know, some of their moves. So I think although it was initial shock, I think the markets digested certainly, NASDAK recovered from you know, not fully, but recovered from the you know, the over three percent down on Monday. And again, as an industry, uh, you know, AI is so immature and it's got a long way to go, and and they'll certainly be ups

and downs like this. But again I think many are looking at it saying.

big big gainer with four point seven percent increase. So certainly, you know, we start off the year, I would say month here, we have month of January in the books, and I'd say, you know, as an investor, it'd have to be happy overall, happy with those results. And you know, the positive thing has been uh, you know, the earnings. Earnings have been there, and you know, we're in the midst of earning season right now, and I think we've got just around a third of the companies have reported

earnings and it's been positive. And you know, we've got a lot of earnings reporting next week.

markets react, and then we had to you know, two things come out, you know, the deep seek but also the Trump administration's talks on tariffs on Friday, which creates some uncertainty, and we saw the markets react. Right, We know the markets don't like uncertainty, but I think from an overall fundamentals, you know, good old earnings driving the positive news, right, and maybe a little overreaction to news,

you know, driving some of the negative. And you know, the the tariffs, those are an area where know, even the Fed is saying we got to step back and take a wait and see attitude, see how that is really going to impact the economy. And you know, there's there's really the devil will be in the details with the tariffs, because you know they're already talk of you know,

oil being carved out of that. And I think you know, certainly the concern is is with tariffs, it increased the cost of products right coming into the US.

to see. And you know the on the bond yield side, you know, we did see bond yields going lower in January, but you know they finish up the month coming up a little higher. You know, the ten year closed Friday at four point five sixty six, and again that some of that was reactionary to the White House releasing some of the tariff information.

our clients. But also, you know, in your financial planning process, understanding what your cash flow needs are and if you've got some immediate cash needs to pull for your portfolio, right, there's things you can do to protect that money, maybe you move that out of your equity sleeve and more into fixed income or even more into cash and cash equivalents,

not into pure cash. And we certainly, you know, if you can still be you know, yielding, you know, just a little below five percent on you know, and money funds, that's that's not a bad place to be if you're looking to park money in a risk free environment. So again a time of year where hey, we do know in a year like this where there is an administrative change,

new policies coming into place. Certainly the Trump administration has made it clear that they would like to extend some of the tax cuts and really make up that revenue through tariffs in other ways. And how that's going to trickle through? Will that affect inflation? You know, So will those tariffs come back in the form of increased prices to consumers and therefore increase inflation? And how's the Fed gonna react? So certainly there is uncertainty, there's no question.

But I think as we look at the US market, you know, the fundamentals are strong, and you know, even the inflation data coming out as soon as yesterday Friday showing inflation you know, coming in as expected. No, no, no, really major surprises. So you know, so a lot of focus on earnings this year. So that'll be certainly what to keep your eyes on as investor. And understand that, hey,

being in the markets, you will have volatility. I talked about you know, the average draw down being fourteen to fifteen percent, right, and so it's about being able to make sure you're in the right risk tolerance, that you have the portfolio mix that matches that, and understand there's gonna be ups and downs, right, And we talk about the need to set short term money side that if you you know, if you know you have a wedding coming up or some big expenditure, maybe your your kids education.

Right knowing that, hey, if that money is going to be need to be coming out of the portfolio in the next you know, maybe even up to twenty four months, it's safest to take that out of maybe your equity sleeve and put that into something.

out of international and still believe. Uh Now again that doesn't mean that we're closing our eyes and aren't looking for opportunities, but we still believe the best opportunities for our clients, for our portfolios are.

people will not be able to buy anything. I just want to get your thoughts and I'll listen for your answer.

absorb those or to pass those on to consumers. And so I think in the first instance, some may be absorbed, there may be enough in profit margin, but some will be passed along. And I think Allen's point is if the terriffs becomes so great and hit so many, so many.

five five nine four nine. You listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help our clients prioritize their health, where we manage their wealth for life. Well, good morning, and thank you for staying with us through that short commercial break. I'm John Malay and I'm going to be the host for this morning show,

so appreciate you tuning in. You know, right before the break, we had a call from Alan and Alan had great question about you know, the tariffs, and you know, I was talking about the concern and even the Fed's concern about tariffs and how it may impact inflation, and you.

outcome as well. And I think that's why, you know, the Fed really, you know, they met this week, the FOMC met on the twenty eighth and twenty ninth, and really, you know, as many expected, you know, opted to leave rates alone. And so they left the FED funds rate the four point twenty five to four point five percent range. And you know, really they they one they said, you know, there's a solid economic backdrop, solid labor market. You know,

so they're in no hurry. And you know, really they've got the luxury right now to have to take time to regain confidence and where inflation is going uh, and they were very clear in some of their their remarks that they you know, they want to step back, take a wait and see approach and see how some of the Trump administrations policies, uh and tariff being one, and you know there being other policies as well about immigration,

you know how those will impact the economy. And uh so even the Fed, you know, unsure how this is going to play out. And I think, you know, one, there's not one hundred percent clarity on how the tariffs will be applied, you know exactly what products will apply to which ones will be carved out. But as Alan said, you know there there certainly is potential that you know, it could be deflationary. You know, I think that, you know, the short term, the concern really is more about inflationary.

implemented and see how it's impacted. And you know, the Fed, you know, I think one of the things that they've made it clear is they're they're not signaling that they're gonna be resuming a path of reducing rates until they're sure, you know, have a better sense of of how some of these policies are going to impact inflation. And certainly, you know, we've got to still have a strong labor market.

Things that they're pointing to, you know, inflation, I'm sorry, unemployments UH still just barely above four percent decent job growth in UH December. The expectation is January will be will be positive as well. And inflation, you know, even you know, we got PCE report out on Friday and the December CPI really showing inflation is you know, no surprises there, you know, so certainly seeing you know, inflation still above the Fed's target. You know, Feds targets two percent.

We're still above that, but really no surprises. You know, the expectations were on the PCE UH and even the CPI that they were going to be a little higher than than prior month and they were, uh and really, you know, when we look at when we dig into the deep, it's still energy prices, food prices, and shelter, you know, seemed to be the most stubborn with inflation right now. So you know, the FED taking a wait and see approach, and I think you know, again we

talked about markets, how they react, market surprises. Market expected that. So when the FED came out and held rates and really took a rate pause, the markets expected. That's really really no no reaction by the markets really and the Fed, you know where they go from here. You know this, this Fed is shown that they are going to be data driven. Uh and they've come out and this was a unanimous decision. So that's I think important to see.

Uh the Fed was uh f O MC was unanimous on taking a wait and see approach.

fault the FED for their early in action. You know, you know back a few years when they were a little slow to really realize that inflation was not transitory, that it was here to stay, that was really digging in deeply. But I'd have to say over the last you know, twelve to eighteen months, they've done a good job of reacting, not overreacting, and you know, raising rates and starting to lower rates based on you know, what

was what the data was driving. So but certainly, I think, you know, President Trump is exerting, trying to exert some of his new power, and but I think the Fed, you know, there's there's there's benefits of some independence there, and I think Chairman Powell will stick to his guns that they're going to look for data before they start reducing rates. So they concluded their meeting this week and opted to really take a wait and see leave, you know,

push pause on any rate reduction. You know, they had reduced rates for the previous three meetings to the tune of a queunt of one percent decline in rates. But now, you know, I think it's fair to say we're we're an environment where we should expect you know, higher rates for longer. Now again, the market has priced that in, you know, and so you know, no surprises there. So just a reminder, you know, I'm here to answer any questions you have, So I encourage listeners to call in

with questions. You can reach me at eight hundred talk w g Y. That's eight hundred eight to five five nine for nine. So one of the things I talked about in the beginning segment was, you know, really we saw the tech sector really take a big drawback on Monday, you know, recovered most of what they gave up. And as I mentioned, you know, for for the month of January still Nasdaq was up you know, one points I'm sorry, it was up, yeah, one point six percent for the month.

But this, you know, deep seek was certainly a big news.

And you know, we've talked so much about AI. I don't think you can listen to a Ernie's conference call without you know, the company mentioning AI, and you know, there's been some significant capital expenditure discussions, especially particularly with the Mag seven, you know, you know, to the tunes of you know, over two hundred billion dollars expected in twenty twenty five, and so a significant and you know, certainly you know the company, you know, the major players

who were and certainly the Max seven are all part of either you know, employing AI or supporting AI. Major capital expenditures you know, being planned for this year. And then here we had this startup out of China, which you know, I think you know, they had mentioned spending less than I think it was less than ten million dollars. I know, I've got that figure here. Uh yeah, cost of I mean it was a five point six million,

you know, so so a very cost effective approach. They developed models and those models have been tested versus some other models and they've held up very well. So this was an eye opener that that you know, we've felt that the US was kind of leading the charge and the dominance in AI, and this certainly, you know, was a surprise coming out of this Chinese startup, and really, you know, in industries that are in their infasy.

is such openness uh in the AI community. And really if that makes it more prolific inability for other companies to use that open source code implement it in their applications, it's really going to lead to the increased adoption of AI. So what was you know, certainly hit the markets as a shock because again we don't like new you know, we don't like to be surprised, and I think the deep Seek news was a surprise with the release of their models. But overall, as we digested, it's probably going

to be a very positive thing. So but again, reason to be diversified, reason to understand what your investment time, Horizon Art make sure you're invested appropriately. We're going to take a quick commercial break, so please stay tuned and we'll be right back with Let's Talk Money on eight ten WGY.

through January, and I love the winter. I will say skiing has been a little difficult over the last few years, but before bringing my daughter back to college, we did a little family trip to Stow, Vermont, and this little tradition we started last year, so got some great time with my daughter, also with other friends and family, but some great skiing. Stowe had some great snow and it's good to see we're getting some snow here in the area, so I definitely want to get out to some of

the mountains around here. So hopefully you're getting a chance to enjoy some of this winter weather. But as we do know, you know, February will be over in a blink and then before we know it will be heading into spring. So I don't, hey, don't want to wish time too fast, because I do enjoy this this weather for sure. You know, life, you know, has a way

of reminding us just how fragile is. And you know, I opened up at the beginning about we had the celebration of life yesterday for our colleague Nicole, and you know, certainly, you know, the events of the last two weeks, you know, have driven home the important of you know, dressing things that some so often we put off. You know, we plan for retirement, we plan for our kids, education, for the next big milestone, you know, but how many of

us are truly prepared, you know, for the unexpected. So, you know, a sudden loss like this, it is a sobering reminder of why things like life insurance, estate plans, having a will in place, why they matter. And you know, it's not just for ourselves, you know, but it's for the people we leave behind. And you know it's not an easy conversation, but it is a necessary one, and it's one that we have with our clients during the financial planning process.

are purposes to use life insurance. And certainly if you're young and you've got a family that relies on your income and you may have a mortgage, you may have other debt, certainly life insurance and we favor in that situation, you know, buying the most term life insurance you can buy, right. And so sometimes you know, people take our comments about life insurance as an investment vehicle and think, well, you know, they're against life insurance and we're not, you know, as

comprehensive financial planners, which we are. You know, life insurance and other insurances have have a role, right and you know, I think it's important to understand what that role is. And you know, again we're not fans of using life insurance as investment product, but certainly as an income or protection term policies can have a great benefit, and like anything, it's it's part of the financial planning process, right understanding what your goals and objectives are and what your gaps are.

And so as part of the financial planning process, you know, we have these conversations with our clients and it's it's a natural conversation. But if you're not working with somebody, you know, you have to step back and look at yourself in the mirror and say, okay, you know, do I have what would happen right if if my income went away or my spouse is income went away? Are we protected and so? And again I would say term life insurance certainly can play a great role in that area.

And you know understanding you know, how term is different than whole life insurance and how what role it should play? Are those important questions. So if you don't have an advisor, you know, I would say, you know, if you find somebody you can ask these questions too, but understand, you know, it's important as a consumer that you understand and you're not get sold the product that you really don't need.

And I would always just advise that if if really it's about income replacement, uh, really you want to be looking at what's the what's the most amount of term insurance you could get that could fill that gap. You know, many times, if we're working with a client who's you know, in their thirties forties, that's the time where it's most needed, right and and you know there are times where it's

needed outside of that. Again, every you know, with with investing in financial planning, there rarely are any just you know, rules of thumb that apply to everyone. Right, So insurance really it's insurance planning is really a part of financial planning, and that planning is unique to that individual and understanding what their needs are. You know, certainly there can be needs even for individuals in their sixties, you know, where

there may be a need for life insurance. You know, certainly we see that with buy sell agreements with maybe partners in a business, but generally, right we see that, you know, especially when you're building your with wealth the earliest parts of your lives, where you're building your wealth your twenties, thirties and forties, that's the biggest need, right you get more individuals relying on your income and understanding

how insurance could fill a gap. You know, many times we see individuals and you know, in their sixties and seventies, where really you know, the need for insurance right there really isn't in one isn't one And so we help evaluate that and you know, help them look at their options.

something were to happen, is that information readily available? Is it handy the people who need to get to it know where to find it? And so you know, just say, if this is one you've been putting off, you know, consider this a reminder, you know, take the time. You know, I always say we start the year off fresh. Although we're now done with January, but you know, February is still still fresh in the year. You know, if this is something you've been putting off, you know, I would

highly encourage you to have that conversation. You know, if if you have a spouse, have that conversation with your spouse, if you have an outdated will or you don't have one, or healthcare proxy or other documents, you know, I would highly encourage work with a professional get all that put

in place. Again, it's something that we don't often think of, right but when you need it, that's it just kind of you know, brings home that you know, not having that really puts a strain on your loved ones and anyone who has to, you know, deal with what happens when you pass away. So I would say just a reminder, you know, have those conversations and evaluate really what you need.

of S and P five hundred companies. We're also seeing you know mag Sevin, you know, putting out some good data.

we're seeing very positive. We're seeing some caution and a little bit of drawback of some of the twenty twenty five expectations for earnings. So you know, I think at this point, you know again, I think almost you know, by the end of next week, we'll we'll have probably just under two thirds of the S and P five hundred reporting, So this week will be a an important

week of earnings releases. But so far, the other positive news we're seeing is a broadening, right, so we're seeing you know, twenty twenty four was a year of heavy concentration of stock performance in the top companies, right.

So overall, positive markets and positive news. And as we look to the week ahead, this will be a very very important week because there will be so many earnings released and as we look at you know, other news, you know, the positive so the things that we've got behind us are the FED really saying they're gonna hold

rate steady, and inflation news all positive. I think we're gonna hear more this week about the Trump's tariffs and who they're gonna apply to exactly in terms of products, what some of the cars carve outs will be, and certainly some of that will impact market reactions. But I think what we're gonna should be seeing in February is really, you know, really having earnings driving some of.