Let's Talk Money

Well, good morning and thank you for tuning in to Let's Talk Money on eight ten WGY. I'm John Malay and I'm going to be your hosts for the next hour. I'm a Certified Public Accountant and CFO, chief Operating Officer and a wealth advisor at Bouchet Financial Group. This morning, I'm sitting in for my colleague Stephen Bouchet, who was enjoying a well deserved break on this holiday weekend. However, rest assured Steve will be returning to the MIC soon

and we'll be hosting an amazing show as always. This morning, I have the honor of being joined by my colleague, Vinnie Testa. Vinnie is also a CPA. He's also a certified financial planner and wealth advisor with the firm. Vinnie is a key member of our tax team as well. Good morning, Vinnie, and thank you for joining me. No problem, John, It's always a pleasure. Thanks for having me. Yeah, excellent, And you know this is uh you know. Here we are on December thirtieth,

wrapping up twenty twenty three, and it's been a crazy year. I will say that, and we Vini and I will certainly get into a lot of discussion about markets and other things. But you know it's also you know, coming to an end of the holiday season and you know, still have a you know, New Year's weekend. Want everybody to have a safe weekend, enjoy themselves and you know, get ready for a strong twenty twenty four.

And you know, it's so odd here we are, you know, the December thirtieth and out here in the Capital region, no snow, no sinus snow. And for those of us who are skiers, it's it's a little disappointing. But you know, I know many people are enjoying the mild season we're having so far, but I'll tell you this, I'm waiting for some

snow. I'm anxious to get out there and get some skiing. And I know my family is as well, so you know, I know, I would like to say Steve uses the radio show to really showcase the amazing team that he's assembled at Bouchet Financial Group. So you know, over the past few months you've had a chance to listen to Nicole Goebel, Ryan Bouchet, Steve Son, Martin Shields, Paolo La Pietra, Harmony Wagner, and Samantha Macy as well as Vinnie and myself. And you know, Steve has built

an amazing team at the firm. We're made up of nineteen professionals. We have seven cfps, four CPAs, one certified divorce financial Analyst and one certified Private Wealth Advisors and two TECHTS enrolled agents. So you know, Steve's very proud of the team and thinks it's a great honor to share our collective knowledge with the listening audience. So we appreciate you tuning in today and we hope you enjoy the next sixty minutes with Vinnie and myself. With that said,

I encourage any listeners to call in questions. You can reach us at eight hundred talk WGY. That's eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine. So while let's jump right into the market update. You know what a difference twenty twenty three has been compared to twenty twenty two. So just you know, you know, twenty twenty three has been a year of you know, great year, but you know, full of miss predictions, right, and

we'll talk about some of those predictions. You know, as we wrapped up twenty twenty two last year, some of the things that we were we were told by some of the best economists we were gonna be facing this year and and a lot of them didn't happen, quite frankly, but year, you know, so it was definitely a year of misspredictions, exceptional market moves, and also some contradictory currents that we'll talk about. So but great year. You know, the S and P five hundred index came inches to setting a

new record high in twenty twenty three. Actually on I think it was Thursday morning, it hit forty seven ninety three, just just fraction short of the forty seven ninety seven, which was an all time high. But the index, you know, closed up over twenty four percent for the year, and

that was even with giving back a little bit on Friday. I think we're all hoping that on Friday we're gonna hit all time highs We gave up a teeny bit on Friday, but wow, over twenty four percent return on the S and P five hundred, and you know, we look at that in comparison to to you know, twenty twenty two, and what a significant change.

And so the S and P delivered strong, and you know, the Nasdaq composite rose forty three percent for the year, it's you know, one of its best performances in two decades, and you know, tech stocks certainly led the way there. And Vinie and I will talk a little bit more about that, will kind of decompose some of the some of the you know changes. But you know, after last year's thirty three percent plunge, you know, NASDEK finished up forty three percent. Just you know, amazing recovery.

And at this point, you know, the Nasdaq is just you know, six and a half percent below it's record high from November of twenty twenty one. So just you know, amazing year for the text. You know, we've talked about the Magnificent seven all year long, but just you know, Nasdaq certainly, you know, leading the charge in the Dow. Even

the Dow up fourth closed up twenty twenty three, up fourteen percent. The Dow did set record highs, you know, it's set record highs back in mid December and quite frankly kept climbing and uh, you know so again finishing up fourteen percent. Bonding decks is also up significant So just you know,

wow, what what a great year in the markets. Uh And you know, certainly, you know, the first half of the year, you know, the big concern was, Hey, it was being led by the magnificent seven, right and NA Video, met A, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, you know, all major tech companies really were driving the market recovery. But we certainly saw, certainly in the last few months of the year, a broadening of the recovery, you know, so really

with small cap in mid cap really leading the charge as well. So that that's a great to have, that not just solely tribunal to the strong tech companies, but having the whole market participation. And you look at some of the tech numbers are staggering. I mean, the Video up over you know, almost two hundred and forty for the year, just you know, Tesla

up over one hundred percent, Amazon just under one hundred percent. So just you know, great showing by the tech companies, and no question, you know, some of that being a lot of that being driven by what's happening in AI. Right, And so you know, again Vinie and I will chat a little bit more about that, but certainly, you know, strong

recovery. But as I mentioned, you know, certainly, you know, I would say from November on, we we did see you know, a broadening of that recovery, so it wasn't just solely on the magnificent seven, you know, we said, you know, since November, you know, the S and P Small Calf six hundred value fund was up over twenty five

percent, the Russell two thousand up twenty four percent. So certainly seeing that broadening of the market, I think it is a healthier, healthier recovery for twenty twenty three than solely you know, lying on the back of the tech

stocks. So good to see that broaden recovery. And you know, bond you know, no question, you know, bond investors, you know, breathe a sire relief, certainly at the end of the year, you know, after avoiding an unprecedented which would have been a third straight year of losses. But you know, we had a huge two month rally in bond prices, you know, which largely you know, you know, driven by expectations that the Central banks FED would be cutting interttates. So that certainly helped,

you know, helped create a nice recovery in the bond markets. You know, the US Treasury yield, which is really the benchmark for borrowing cost globally, you know, dropped forty six bases points in December following almost a fifty three basis point in November. So certainly a strong two month rally in the bond markets, which you know, just phenomenal to see across the board.

So at this point we're just going to take a quick commercial break, so please stay tuned and we'll be right back with Let's Talk Money on eight ten w g Y. Well, thank you for staying with us through the break. We just took a real quick commercial break, Zach, thank you for that. So you have John Malay here again. I encourage any listeners to call in with questions. You can reach us at eight hundred talk WG Y.

That's eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine. Vinne and I were just going through a you know, a recap of the just the strong recovery in the markets in twenty twenty three, just you know, I was talking about each of the indexes up significantly, the broadening recovery which was great to see, and then bonds coming back strong again this year, you know, even crypto, you know, as we look at all of our different asset classes, you know, crypto crypto had a good year in twenty twenty

three as well, you know, and here we are, I think it's about its fourteenth year of existence. It was a strange year, I'm going to say. In the crypto it certainly was you know, marred a little bit with scandal and some bankruptcy. But still, you know, the industry had, you know, one of its best years ever. I think. You know, Bitcoin, which is really crypto's bell weather asset, is up six one hundred and sixty percent for the year, even though there's been some

very high profile cases. You know, we talked about, you know, certainly some of the scandals and other legal battles going on, but you know, crypto certainly had a huge recovery. It's going to be there, you

know, I think more to talk about in twenty twenty four. You know, one of the things that's happening on the crypto front is, you know, we may have in early twenty twenty four kind of the first spot bitcoin ETF, so that'd be in exchange traded fun and you know a simple way of thinking about that is, you know, a spot bitcoin ETF will allow investors to track the price of bitcoin without actually holding the digital currency. You

know, the regulators have been holding that up. And again there is you know thought that that will be approved by the regulators sometime in twenty twenty four, maybe very early, and you know that certainly could I think put bitcoin back on the discussion front. But so again we're twenty twenty two. Remember that was that year. You know, we couldn't hide every asset class was down, and it's it is stark when you look at twenty twenty two versus

twenty twenty three. You know, US equities down over eighteen percent in twenty twenty two, up over twenty four percent twenty three world equities, right, so the recovery not just being US, it's you know global down almost eighteen percent twenty twenty two, up over twenty one percent twenty twenty three. The sixty forty portfolio, which is really a balanced portfolio that many investors are in. Right, So sixty percent allocated stock, forty percent fixed income, had

his third worst year in twenty twenty two, down over seventeen percent. This year, that same sixty forty portfolio had a you know growth of over fifteen percent. So just you know, example of just great recovery year over year.

But it's interesting, you know, not everyone was a big winner in twenty twenty three, right, and you know, China was a big loser, you know, especially you know, I think heading at the end of twenty twenty two, we thought, you know, okay with with China lifting some of their COVID restrictions, you know, a lot of economists felt we're going to see some tremendous growth in China this year. But that was not

the case. You know, twenty twenty three was a great year for global stocks, so we had you know, markets in the US, Europe, and Japan and India all enjoying strong rallies, but investors in China sour.

China did not participate in that same growth. And you know, and they're facing China's facing a string of problems including you know, a real estate crisis, weak consumer spending, and high unemployment, you know, and all have put all these you know issues have really put the world's second largest economy on unstable footing. So we saw several big indexes of China's markets, you know,

take significant double digit decreases in twenty twenty three. And you know, again that's all then, despite of you know, China lifting, it's you know, zero COVID policy sort of the lockdowns in twenty twenty two, so you know, twenty you know, China is going to continue to have some issues. Now certainly, you know there they can be a force to reckon with, but they've got some major issues that they're going to have to deal

with. And then we also saw oil down this year, and you know, certainly, you know, the struggling Chinese economy also helped drive declines and oil prices. And then but also you know, the week weekend man from China, but also you know, the record levels of oil production in the US played a played a role in driving that down. So you know, not everyone was a winner in twenty twenty three, but certainly, uh you know, when you look at the US equity markets, in global markets,

apps in China, you know, there were significant recoveries. And I know, Vinnie, you and I were chatting, you know, just a little bit about you know, some of the Magnificent seven in Ai, you know, causing some of the the increases in the markets this year. I don't know if you want to add any commentary there. I know, certainly something

you've been following pretty closely as well. Yeah, absolutely, so the Magnificent seven for those of you who don't know, it was kind of a build off off of what we've heard in the past referred to as the fang stocks, right, So fang was you know, Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. So that has now become something that they call the Magnificent seven and the of those big names out there that we hear oh so often, and that's Navidia, you know Meta. Obviously, Facebook is still

in the in the mix of the Magnificent seven. Now we have Tesla, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Apple. So these are those, you know, those seven big companies, and they did extremely well in twenty twenty three after the significant downturns they all suffered in twenty twenty two. I mean, the Vidio is up two hundred and thirty six percent in twenty twenty three.

Facebook's up one hundred and ninety six percent, Tesla one hundred and twelve, Amazon eighty three, Google fifty nine, Microsoft fifty five, and Apple forty seven. So as you could see, you know, based on those

numbers, they've had some pretty significant positive performance in twenty twenty three. A lot of this has to do obviously, there's been a market rebound because of optimism in the economy, and the economy has been strong, it's been resilient through the rate hikes, but no. Artificial intelligence was a big talking point in twenty twenty three, and a lot of these companies are investing in artificial

intelligence. Their business models are based off artificial intelligence and the reaping the benefits of it. Right. It's creating efficiency in the market's creating efficiency and manufacturing efficiency and operations. So artificial intelligence has been a huge talking point, and it's going to change the way of the world, right. I mean, it's it's like if you think back to you know, when the Model T came out in the nineteen tens and everyone was you know, riding on horse

horses and buggies and this the vehicles came out. It's that life changing from an economic perspective. It's going to create infrastructure, you know, manufacturing and positives across you know, the nation and across the world, right, and these are these companies are going to benefit. I mean, if you think about a Tesla alone, right in those self driving vehicles, you know, that's artificial intelligence, right. And we've all heard of chat GPT, you

know, that's its own company. Aside from the Magnificent seven, but just some amazing breakthroughs in technology. And if you think about the past twenty years, just how far technology has come. Artificial intelligence is really going to pave the way, and that's why we've seen the gains we have in these Magnificent seven technology companies right in the video. Right, this is a company that has been on the up and up for the past couple of years now,

and one of the main reasons is they're a manufacturer of semiconductors. Right, they make computer chips, right, and artificial intelligence demand and what the infrastructure needed to you know, had artificial intelligence in place, you know, all across the world, you're gonna need computer chips. So that's why this company in a video has really seen the gains that had. I mean, the company's performance over the past five to ten years is unbelievable from a percentage standpoint.

And then the other company that they compete with is a MD right, and I know, John, you know you know a lot about AMD Advanced micro Devices. You know, they're also up one hundred and twenty three percent

this year. So these chip companies, and you know, if you follow the markets closely, the semiconductor and chip companies have really been, you know, been the benefactor of this artificial intelligence boom more so than any other of these companies because they're going to you know, they're the manufacturing behind the infrastructure it takes to you know, get the artificial intelligence in the place in all of these places with the computer chips. So, yeah, we've really seen

a great performance from that magnificent seven because of that. Yeah, thanks for that, you know, additional color. And but to capture those gains, if Vinnie was talking about, you had to be in the market, right, I mean, if you were sitting in cash in twenty twenty three, you should be scratching your head right now saying, boy, I just missed

a great opportunity. And I will say that's whereas advisors, you know, we play a huge role because, let's face it, finishing up twenty twenty two, there was a lot of reasons to be concerned, right, and you know we had those conversations and you know, there's certainly, you know, there's fear of what could be happening. It's certainly economists we're coming out

in the talking heads. You know, we're creating this fear, and you know there's concerns, and sometimes as an emotional investor, individuals want to react to that and say I'm going to time this market, I'm going to get out. Well, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be a market timer, because think about it, you got to time both sides. You got a time when you get out of the market and then when

you get back in. And if you decided last year that you were sure that we were going to have issues this year and you went all cash, you've just sat on the sideline. When we talked about the significant gains, Vinnie and I just went through over twenty four percent in the S and P, just significant gains, and you would have missed out on that. And that's where you know, quite frankly, as an advisor, we we worked

to really take that emotion out right. So it's okay to have those emotions and you want to talk about them, but then we have to be sound investors and say, what's our investment strategy. If we've got a long term investment strategy, well, you've got to invest appropriately. Now that means diversification, right, and obviously if you've got short term needs, you know you certainly would would adjust that portfolio, UH to make sure those short term needs

are going to be met. But I will say, you know, if we look back to you know, if we were sitting back a year ago in twenty twenty two, in what were some of the headlines we were gonna hear, you know, we're hearing about what's going to happen in twenty twenty three. Well, we were told, you know, there's gonna be a recession. There is gonna be a recession in twenty twenty three. Right, we were told that, and you know, several economists came out and you

know, quite frankly, the consensus opinion was wrong. It was just wrong. You know, we didn't have a recession. You know, GDP grew at a faster than two percent annual rate for the first half of the year, then accelerated to four percent in the third quarter and the fourth or in the third quarter, and then the fourth quarter is on pace for an annual GDP of two point three percent. So we did not go into a recession. And you know something, it wasn't the first time that economists blew it,

and it won't be the last. And so that was one of the headlines we heard, right we're going to head into this recession. You should be concerned there's a recession coming. The other thing we heard is that, hey, to get inflation down, we need unemployment to rise. We need to cause pain, right, there has to be job loss. We have to have a change, a significant change in unemployment numbers. Well, guess

what. We got inflation down from a high of nine percent, right close to the target that that FED has not quite there, but we're very close. And that happened without significant loss of job. And you know, we're going to take just a short little break and we come back from the break, we'll talk some more about what some of these concerns you know, should be or that we were told we should have heading into heading into twenty twenty three. And so, believe it or not, we are halfway through today's

show and we're gonna be taking a short break. I want to thank you for tuning in with us today. We hope you are enjoying the show, and we'll rejoin us after the break. We encourage any listeners to call in with questions. You can reach us at eight hundred talk WGI. That's eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine. You are listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group, where we help our clients

prioritize their health while we manage their wealth for life. Thank you for joining us, and hopefully we'll see you after the break. Well, good morning, and thank you for staying with us through the break. I'm John Malay and I'm joined by my colleague Vinny Testa, and we are host this morning show. So appreciate you tuning in. We want to encourage any callers or

any listeners to call in with questions. You can reach us at eight hundred talk w g Y. That's eight hundred eight two five five nine four nine, and we have a call from Rich hopefully Rich date on hold through the break. Rich, appreciate you listening and what can we do for you this morning? Yeah? Can you hear me? Okay, guys, I'm in the car. Yeah, Rich, we can hear you. Fine. Maybe you'ready stressious? Did you talk about your firm outlook for twenty twenty four?

You know, we we haven't started talking about outlook for twenty twenty four yet, but we will be. But you know I can give you you know kind of some you know, high level you know, as we look at you know, twenty twenty four, they're certainly, you know, certainly expectation the Fed will be cutting rates right in and from their dot plot, you know, they're projecting three rate decreases. Certainly the market is pricing in more.

Uh So you know, short term, you know, there could be volatility, right, you know, just you know, if if the Fed does not meat market expectations and rate cuts, you know, that could create some choppiness. But as we look at market fundamentals, you know, we're still very bullish on equity markets. You know, we're we're seeing uh, you know, uh corporate earnings holding up and actually earnings expectations increasing and some

of that. You know, as Vinnie talked about AI, some of the big players are now starting to see significant efficiencies due to AI and and other things. So you know, we certainly see there's you know, there's no

question there there could be some headwinds you know, in the economy. And we say, you know, certainly, as as a long term investor, diversify, if if you've got short term cash needs, you know, be smart with that, maybe allocate uh those immediate needs to fixed income or uh maybe even some uh, you know, treasuries still getting you know, great yields on on on the short term, short end of the curve, right,

So there's still opportunities to generate some yield and protect it from market fluctuations. But as a long term investor, we're still very bullish in the equity markets. You know, as as any talked about the tech tech we still see as uh, you know, although you know, uh, you know, you could argue based on valuations, you know there, you know,

there could be some concern there. But again we're seeing you know, uh, we're we're seeing earnings improving, We're seeing efficiencies being achieved, and you're hearing about the tech companies talking about that on their on their earnings calls. Uh. But again I think short term, you know, no question, what the Fed actually does with rate decreases will will have some impact, no

question. You know, we're heading into a political year, obviously, an election year, you know, and it's interesting in our state of economy. We last year we did some charts showing you know, long term, you know, who's in office really does not impact the you know, the markets in a significant way. But I will say in an election year, you could have a little bit of volatility just based on you know, some of the rhetoric and things going on, and also just installed ability to get things

done in Congress. But I would say long term horizon, we're still very bullish and the equity markets and still believe in being overweighted tech good. That sounded good. Any cash to what do you what do you usually say you

SHO have a couple of years cash in reserve? Yes, so, you know if so, typically you know, when we're working with our clients and let's say it's somebody who's in retirement and they're taking distributions, we set up a cash manager a stray, so we're taking two years worth of distributions and

really taking them out of the market. Right, So the last thing we want to be doing is having to do having to sell equities in a down market, right to raise cash that we knew we needed, right So so I definitely what we try to do is set up two years worth of cash needs really and more of a cash manager strategy. And rich on the flip side, if you know, we're talking about an emergency fund for maybe someone who isn't retired and talking about the cash you should have on hand just in

case of emergency or rainy day. Should have three to six months set to the side, aside from your investment portfolio on which you're taking distributions, but you know, the roof goes on your house, or you know, maybe you know, obviously i'd be more of but someone loses their job. You should have three to six months on the side in pure cash just in case

you know something that it happens. Thank Scott, appreciate it, Thank you, appreciate appreciate you joining us this morning, and drive safe and you know, appreciate that call from Richard, you know, and as Vinnie said, you know, even with you know, treasury yields right now, certainly you know, the yields and the ten year the longer end of the curve have come down significantly, but you know, looking at a three six month treasury,

you're still looking at yields at you know, five point three, three five and a quarter, right, So if you you know, so you can put cash aside in treasuries and not have that the risk of principle and and still generating good yields. So certainly certainly good opportunity there. And again we appreciate the call from Rich and again, if anyone else has questions,

you know, please encourage you to call us. You can reach us at eight hundred talk w g Y that's eight hundred and eighty two five five nine four nine. So again, you know, we've we've talked about the strong market recovery in twenty twenty three and again to experience that, you've got to be in the market, right and and you know, again there was a lot of fear mongering going on at the end of twenty twenty two, and you know, some of the headlines, right we just talked about is okay,

we're gonna be heading into a recession. You know, we're gonna have significant unemployment. Then you know, then it was gonna be we're gonna have a major banking crisis. And then you know, the geopolitical shocks, right, you know, we you know, there's a lot of concern of whether the Russia invasion of Ukraine in twenty two was going to continue to affect markets in twenty twenty three. And you know, largely those factors did not impact

the markets this year in a significant ways. We saw the huge recovery. So you know, again, I think the the thing to take away is, you know something, there's always gonna be reasons to not be invested, right. There's just there always is. And you know, just for example, if you look over the last five years, right, there's plenty of reasons that investors should have run for the hills, right and say I can't put money in the markets. You know, you had the COVID pandemic.

You had the massive job disruption and loss is caused by that. You had, you know, the capitol riots, all the political turmoil, you had soaring nine percent inflation, you had the Fed raising rates eleven times. You had you know, global you know, just rest, unrest with the war in Ukraine. Over that five years, those are all the things that happened, and there's more, but those are five over that year, those are over the five year span. Those are some big factors reasons that you shouldn't

even been in the market. But guess what if you were in the market, and you were in the S and P five hundred, you would have nearly doubled your money during that time. So the so the takeaway here is there's always going to be concerned, right, and again, stay invested, right, and you can tweak your portfolio, but have a diversified portfolio where you you know just at based on what the market is presenting. Right. But to the fear of going all cash and getting out, you got to

think about that how difficult that is to get that right. Right. We'd all wish if we had a crystal ball and we knew it was gonna happen the next day, well, then it'd be easy. But we don't have that crystal ball. Right, So if you decide to go all cash, you're making two decisions. You're making your decision to exit and then now you've got to make a decision to re enter, and that that is almost impossible

to get perfect right. And so again our takeaway here and this is where as advisors, you know, and Vinnie can tell he could tell you a bunch of stories. I can tell you a bunch of stories of clients who who had that fear going into twenty twenty three. And there's nothing wrong with

that, right, that's human nature. But that's where our job as advisors is, right, is to work with our clients talk through that fear, right, and sometimes through those conversations as we just talked about, as rich it might be well I've got a wedding going on next year, and well, okay, then let's what's the cost of that wedding. Let's set that money aside. Let's take that money out of the market. Let's put it

in vehicles that we're going to preserve. Principle, right, So if we anticipate cash flow needs, Okay, you're right, markets might go up and down. And what's one thing, you know, Steve will always guarantee markets will go down, you know, that's part of being in the stock market, and but they always come up. And so a lot of time we're talking to clients. Okay, let's identify those cash needs, let's set those

aside, but let's stay in the market. It right, And again, as a long term investor, we have to match their risk tolerance with the portfolio. But I'm just gonna go back to there's always reasons to not be invested in the markets, and that's not a good reason to exit the markets. There's a reason there's risk, and as a long term investor, you're rewarded for that risk by being in the equity markets. So we're going to take a quick commercial break, So please stay tuned and we'll be right back

with Let's Talk Money on eight ten WGI. All right, well, thank you for that quick break, Zach, and thank you for staying with us through the break. I am John Malay. I'm here with Vinnie Testa from our firm. We were your hosts for this morning. I'm going to turn it over to Vinnie in just a minute just for some kind of tax information.

But before I do, you know, the last caller, Rich asked about our outlook for twenty twenty four, and you know, we're we'll be holding our annual State of the Economy in late January, so we're, you know, Ryan Bouchet, our chief investment officers, putting together kind of our formal outlook on that. But I will say, you know, just a

few comments. You know, certainly, as we look out at twenty twenty four, right, we're coming from some almost all time highs in all the indexes, not quite a Nasdaq, but certainly on the others, but certainly great, great points, and so as we look at the next year, you know, certainly there are risks, right, and again I just went through all the risks that we faced heading into twenty twenty three, and how many of them didn't come to fruition. But we can't ignore risk, right,

we just have to identify them and make educated moves. And so certainly the FED is going to be an area of concern just to see what they actually do with raids, right, and if they don't cut rates as aggressively as the market is certainly pricing in, you know, that will cause rates to remain longer for higher and could have some impact, no shot, no question. But the Fed is you know, projecting three cuts for next year, the market is pricing more like six, and that could be you know,

some some risk. You know, there's still talk about do we head into a recession, do we hit this soft landing? You know, I will say, you know, the soft landing is looking more and more likely, but it's still a fragile idea, right, and so there could be disappointments on the inflation front or wage growth or job opening front that could tip that. So that's certainly, you know, we don't want to celebrate too

early. And then you know, are there concerns about earnings and revenue disappointments And you know, I will say, you know, again looking at some of the economists bottom ups, bottoms up analysis, you know, they're expecting great record earnings in twenty twenty four, with nearly eleven percent higher than twenty twenty three. But again this is projections and again with a longer if rates did not come down, that certainly could impact that as well as you know,

if they're significant upheaval in the jobs market. So certainly, you know, as I said, heading into twenty twenty four, there are risks and concerns, but we're still very bullish on equity markets, particularly the US global markets. We did see a nice recovery this year really with almost every market except China. So certainly, you know, as a long term investor, we're still very bullish inequity. And I know, Vinnie, you know we're

wrapping up the year and getting close into tax time. I know you had some highlights you wanted to go through. I'm gonna let you take over for a few minutes and go through some some tax thoughts you have. Yeah,

absolutely, thanks John. Well, before before I get into tax stuff, I just wanted to touch on what John was just talking about earlier about staying invested in the markets and how you know, over the past five years the markets are up one hundred and seven percent even with you know, the pandemic, the election, you know, the Ukraine invasion, and the bear market

in twenty twenty two. Just staying invested is so important. And not only does we shave financial group, you know, do financial planning, tax planning, investment advisory. But one of the things that I think goes you know, not forgotten about, but unseen by some of our clients is that when things do go bad, you know, we're there to shake them and make sure that they don't sell out of the market when things go back, because

that's the absolute worst thing you can do. Staying invested over the long term

is you're always going to reap the benefits. And the fact that the market's up one hundred and seven percent over the past five years with all of these had the inflation, uh, the capital riots, you know, COVID, you know, the fact that it's up one hundred and seven percent just goes to show is that when you don't panic, you and you keep your money invested in the markets, you know you're going to reap the benefits that it's difficult to do for most people, you know, the psychology of investing,

right, It's difficult to do when things go bad to not have that pessimistic point of view and take things in your own hands and go to cash. But when you're selling the market out alone, you don't get back in and it goes back up like it always does, and back up to all time

highs, you're gonna miss out on the benefits you would have reaped. And that's one of the things that we do for clients I think that's really important, is that we're there as like a liaison or as a blocker, if you will, to make sure that they don't, you know, sell out of their portfolio or make any rash decisions that are going to be a huge detriment to them and their financial future. So, you know, just to

get into some year end tax items. I mean, there's only two days left twenty twenty three, and I can't believe that we're going into twenty twenty four. You know. The only thing I could say that you know you may be able to do before your end is, you know, get your gifting in right. So when it comes to gifting folks funds or assets, you know, there's an annual exclusion limit right that you're able to gift to an individual without having to file attack to turn or be subject to gift tax.

Most everyday average folks are never going to be subject to gift tax. You have to, you know, be pretty significantly you know, wealthy, and have a pretty significant state right a state and gift tax, and you could go hand in hand. But when it comes to gifting, folks, only two days left so you're able to gift. In twenty twenty three, an individual seventeen thousand dollars per year, so if you want to get that in before the end of the year, you should do so. And if

you're married, you can gift that same individual thirty four thousand dollars. It's coming from you and your wife, so you double up the annual exclusion. And in twenty twenty four, the annual exclusion amount is going up to eighteen thousand, so it's going up to by one thousand dollars in person. So only two days left get your gifts in. There's not much time. And on January sixteenth is the fourth quarter estimated tax payment due date for your estimated

tax payments for twenty twenty four. So you know, a lot of work we do for clients at the firm. You know, I'll do a tax rejection for a client and make sure that they're paid in, you know, and get them close to zero as possible on the federal side of the New York side as I possibly can. Uh, you know, when they file their tax return, so I'll do projections for them, and you know, at this point we have a lot of the year to date investment income and

we have a full grasp and everything. So the projections get pretty close, and I'll have them make payments to the IRS and or state to you know, make sure that they're paid in and they're not subject to any penalties or interests on tax they could oh if they didn't pay those payments. And so January sixteenth is that fourth quarter estimated payment due date. And when it comes to retirement, retirement planning, sometimes retirement planning and tax planning go hand in

hand. Actually they go hand in hand a lot. So if you have an IRA traditional or raw if IRA, you know you don't have two days left, guys, you have until April seventeenth to make contributions for twenty twenty three. So the limit that contribute to I mean, of course, you have to have earned income, and there are income limits if you're over a certain income limit. You know, you might not be able to contribute directly to traditional orros IRA. You maybe be able to contribute to a non deductible

IRA, but that's a whole nother story. But you know, if you are able to contribute to a traditional ROSS, you have until April seventeenth. The contribution limit for twenty twenty three is sixty five hundred for those under the

age of fifty. If you're over the age of fifty, it's seventy five hundred, and in twenty twenty four it's seven thousand dollars and eight thousand dollars with the catchup, and you're able to you know, if you're going to make a contribution for twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four, as long as it's before April seventeenth, you could do it on the same day. Right, you're making that contribution for twenty twenty four in twenty twenty four, but

you could also make the contribution for twenty twenty three. So you really have fifteen and a half months in each year to make a contribution to your iras for that year. And the reason being is you know those income limits, right. Not everyone knows if they're going to be over that income limit on their tax return, you know, before year end. So that's why the IRS gives you until the tax filing deadline to make those contributions, so you

know that that's nice of them. So filing deadlines are also coming up obviously as well. Just like I said on April seventeenth, the individual tax return filing deadline, that's when that falls on. Sometimes it's April fifteenth, but when it falls on a weekend or a holiday will get pushed out a little

bit further. So April seventeenth is that due date. It's also the first quarter estimated tax payment due date for twenty twenty five, so I know it's hard to think that far out, but that is the due date for the first quarter estimated tax payment. You know, not only is the individual tax return due date on April seventeenth, but also if you're filing extension, that's

the due date for that as well. And also if you maybe you own a C corporation, that is also the filing deadline for C corporations as well as the extension for C corporation. So you know those are going to come up quicker. You know. Let me think as we know, time flies, and when we're talking about taxes, and you know, things get by you and those dates come sooner rather than later. So you know, I would advise all folks to, you know, do the best they can to

get their ducks in a row. That way, you know, they can have their taxes filed efficiently and in an effective manner. March fifteenth, that's another due date. So if you own a partnership, if you're a partner in a partnership, or if you have shares in an S corporation, that is, those are the that's the due date for those two tax returns. Right, it's Form ten sixty five and Form eleven twenty s as well as the extension due date for those returns. March fifteenth is also a deadline for

those who own an LLC. Right. An LLC could be a multitude. An LLC could be you know, it could be a single member LLC, right that's reported on your individual tax return. It could be a C corporation. It's not really that common, but it could be LLC is also it could be a multi member LLC, which is a partnership. And an LLC could also be an X corporation, which also is not that common, but

it happens. But in New York there is a tax form that all LLCs must file with New York State, and you know, there's a small fee based on the receipts, but there has to be activity going on in the LLC. There's no activity, the forms not required to be filed, but

March fifteenth is the deadline for that. So makes it tricky is if you have I'm sorry, if you have a syncer member LLC and you're filing on an individual tax return basis and you're reporting your business income on Schedule C and Form ten forty, you have to file this form before the individual tax turn

filing DENE. So it kind of makes things tricky for accountants. But it's pretty important to get that return filed a year after year and make sure that you're keeping up the date, you know, with those filing requirements that are

issued by New York State. Some other changes in twenty twenty four, we have the four to one K four H three week B four to fifty seven B contribution limit, so it's going up to twenty three thousand dollars for those under the age of fifty and then the catchup is an extra seventy five hundred dollars. So if you're over the age of fifty, total contribution limit would

be thirty five hundred dollars. So if you're someone who has maybe set amounts coming out of your paychecks currently the max out your contributions to you know, your four to one K or four through B, you might want to increase because it's a little bit of an increase from last year, so you might want to increase those contributions so you know you're hitting that limit if you're someone who wants to hit the limit or needs to hit the limit in some cases

for some folks that might be a little bit behind on the retirement contributions. Twenty four just to comment there too on four to one K, just just because you know, this is also a great time to re view your four oh one K allocation, right, A lot of times people set it and

forget it and they don't realize what they're in. So definitely, you know, I would recommend this a good time to review how you're allocated in your four oh one K, and certainly you know, review your holdings, adjust those and you know, make sure you're you're invested as aggressively as you should be. You know, obviously you've got a long time horizon, the opportunity to take more risks, So I can't believe it. You know, here we are, We're coming to the end of our show, and I hope

you enjoyed it. I know that Vinnie and I certainly did. I hope you tune in next week and listen to our colleague Stephen Bouchet. You can also check out our website wwwwche dot com for great content and information out a variety of investment topics you have been listening to Let's Talk Money, brought to you by Bouchet Financial Group.