This week we talk about neural networks, AGI, and scaling laws. We also discuss training data, user acquisition, and energy consumption. Recommended Book: Through the Grapevine by Taylor N. Carlson Transcript Depending on whose numbers you use, and which industries and types of investment those numbers include, the global AI industry—that is, the industry focused on producing and selling artificial intelligence-based tools—is valued at something like a fifth to a quarter of a trillion dollars, a...
Nov 19, 2024•22 min
This week we talk about the Double Reduction Policy, gaokao, and Chegg. We also discuss GPTs, cheating, and disruption. Recommended Book: Autocracy, Inc by Anne Applebaum Transcript In July of 2021, the Chinese government implemented a new education rule called the Double Reduction Policy. This Policy was meant, among other things, to reduce the stress students in the country felt related to their educational attainment, while also imposing sterner regulations on businesses operating in educatio...
Nov 12, 2024•21 min
This week we talk about peat, pig iron, and sulphuric acid. We also discuss the Industrial Revolution, natural gas, and offshore wind turbines. Recommended Book: Deep Utopia by Nick Bostrom Transcript This episode is going live on election day here in the US; and this has been quite a remarkable election season for many reasons, among them that there’s been just a boggling amount of money spent on advertisements and events and other efforts to claim attention and mindshare, and in part because t...
Nov 05, 2024•19 min
This week we talk about Joe Rogan, Call Her Daddy, and podcast monetization. We also discuss Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and double-haters. Recommended Book: You Sexy Thing by Cat Rambo Transcript In the world of US politics, double-haters are potential voters who really just don’t like the candidate from either major political party, and thus they decide whether and how to vote based on who they dislike least—or in some cases who they would like to hurt, the most. This isn’t a uniquely America...
Oct 29, 2024•17 min
This week we talk about DJT, Polymarket, and Kalshi. We also discuss sports betting, gambling, and PredictIt. Recommended Book: Build, Baby, Build by Bryan Caplan Transcript Trump Media & Technology Group, which trades under the stock ticker DJT, has seen some wild swings since it became a publicly tradable business entity in late-March of 2024. The Florida-based holding company for Truth Social, a Twitter-clone that was released in early 2022 following former President Donald Trump’s oustin...
Oct 22, 2024•20 min
This week we talk about the HoloLens, the Apple Vision Pro, and the Meta Ray-Ban Smart Glasses. We also discuss augmented reality, virtual reality, and Orion. Recommended Book: The Mountain in the Sea by Ray Nayler Transcript Originally released as a development device in 2016—so aimed at folks who make software, primarily, not at the general public—the HoloLens, made by Microsoft, was a fairly innovative device that looked like virtual reality headgear, but which allowed folks to interact with ...
Oct 15, 2024•20 min
This week we talk about the AfD, the Freedom Party, and the Identitarian Movement. We also discuss Martin Sellner, Herbert Kickl, and racialism. Recommended Book: The Ministry of Time by Kaliane Bradley Transcript Racialism, sometimes called scientific racism, is the pseudoscientific belief that groups of human beings are inherently, biologically different from each other based on different evolutionary paths that have carved up the species into different races that are distinct enough from each...
Oct 08, 2024•19 min
This week we talk about the Fed, interest rates, and inflation. We also discuss cooling economies, the Federal Funds Rate, and the CPI. Recommended Book: Dirty Laundry by Richard Pink and Roxanne Emery Transcript I’ve done a few episodes on this general topic over the past several years, so I won’t get super in-depth about many of the specifics, but the US Federal Reserve has a dual-mandate to keep prices stable and to maximize employment in the country—though that core responsibility has been e...
Oct 01, 2024•18 min
This week we talk about interdiction, the NSA, and Mossad. We also discuss exploding pagers, targeted strikes, and paramilitary organizations. Recommended Book: Uncertainty in Games by Greg Costikyan Transcript In the world of technology, and especially computers—or anything with microchips and thus, some computing capabilities—a “backdoor” is a bit of code or piece of hardware that allows someone (or a group of someones) to get inside that computer or compute-capable device after it’s been deli...
Sep 24, 2024•21 min
This week we talk about EREVs, Ford’s CEO, and Hertz. We also discuss the used EV market, plug-in hybrids, and the Tesla Model 3. Recommended Book: Not the End of the World by Hannah Ritchie Transcript In late-2021, car rental giant Hertz announced that it would purchase 100,000 Tesla Model 3 sedans for its fleet, giving customers the opportunity to drive what had recently, in 2019, become the best-selling plug-in electric car in US history, beating out the Chevy Volt, and then in 2020 become th...
Sep 17, 2024•17 min
This week we talk about Wegovy, Eli Lilly, and HIMS. We also discuss pig pancreases, beneficial side-effects, and shortages. Recommended Book: The Death Café Movement by Jack Fong Transcript In the 1970s, a pair of researchers looking into possible ways to address duodenal ulcer disease were studying the way we secrete different hormones while eating, and that led to an experiment in which they pumped a hormone called glucagon-like peptide 1, or GLP-1, extracted from pigs, into pig pancreases to...
Sep 10, 2024•19 min
Friends! It looks like Covid got me (my girlfriend is just getting over her own Covid-y week, and we live together—so despite our best efforts this was maybe unavoidable). In accordance with my policy of aggressively resting when I get sick, I’ll be taking the week off to sleep, feel generally sore and uncomfortable, and consume alarming quantities of ibuprofen. Sorry about the gap in programming, but unless something unexpected and worrying happens I’ll be back to my usual publishing schedule b...
Sep 03, 2024•54 sec
This week we talk about the Falcon 9, the Saturn V, and NASA’s bureaucracy. We also discuss Boeing’s mishaps, the Scout system, and the Zenit 2. Recommended Book: What’s Our Problem? by Tim Urban Transcript In 1961, the cost to launch a kilogram of something into low Earth orbit—and a kilogram is about 2.2 pounds, and this figure is adjusted for inflation—was about $118,500, using the Scout, or Solid Controlled Orbital Utility Test system of rockets, which were developed by the US government in ...
Aug 27, 2024•20 min
This week we talk about Kursk, asymmetric warfare, and Russian politics. We also discuss HIMARS, supply lines, and Kyiv. Recommended Book: The Disappearance of Rituals by Byung-Chul Han Transcript About two and a half years ago, on February 24, 2022, Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. This invasion had been forecasted for a while, as Russian forces had at times surreptitiously, at times more overtly supported separatist factions in the eastern and southeastern portion of Ukraine for about a dec...
Aug 20, 2024•29 min
This week we talk about Taylor Swift, knife attacks, and immigration politics. We also discuss immigration rationales, riffraff, and terrorist plots. Recommended Book: AI 2041 by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan Transcript American musician, singer, and songwriter Taylor Swift, at age 34, recently became the world's first music industry billionaire who's primary source of income is their music—as opposed to side-businesses, work, and royalties in adjacent or completely disconnected industries. A lot o...
Aug 13, 2024•25 min
This week we talk about Chávez, Maduro, and Bolivarianism. We also discuss authoritarianism, Potemkin elections, and the Venezuelan refugee crisis. Recommended Book: Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen Transcript Venezuela, a country with a population of about 30.5 million people, has lost something like 7 to 9 million people, depending on which numbers you use, to a refugee crisis that began about a decade ago, in 2014, and which has since become the largest ever in the Americas, and one of the top t...
Aug 06, 2024•24 min
This week we talk about student protests, curfews, and East Pakistan. We also discuss Sheikh Hasina, Myanmar, and authoritarians. Recommended Book: The Identity Trap by Yascha Mounk Transcript Bangladesh is a country of about 170 million people, those people living in an area a little smaller than the US state of Illinois, a hair over 57,000 square miles. It shares a smallish southeastern border with Myanmar, and its entire southern border runs up against the Bay of Bengal, which is part of the ...
Jul 30, 2024•19 min
This week we talk about assassination attempts, presidential drop-outs, and October Surprises. We also discuss election narratives, the frictions of age, and brief attempts at unity messaging. Recommended Book: The Day the World Stops Shopping by JB MacKinnon Transcript On October 7 of 2016, The Washington Post released a video from 2005 in which Presidential Candidate Donald Trump bragged about how you can get away with sexually assaulting women if you're famous. That same day, Wikileaks releas...
Jul 23, 2024•23 min
This week we talk about protectionist policy, solar panels, and rare earths. We also discuss Chinese business investment, EVs, and extreme weather events. Recommended Book: Meet Me By the Fountain by Alexandra Lange Transcript The Great Green Wall—the one in China, not the one meant to span the Sahel region, straddling the upper portion of Africa—is officially called the Three-North Shelter Forest Program, and was initially implemented by the Chinese government in 1978. This program is scheduled...
Jul 16, 2024•25 min
This week we talk about the Heritage Foundation, Agenda 47, and the Democrats in turmoil We also discuss Christian Nationalism, France’s surprising election outcome, and authoritarianism. Recommended Book: Filterworld by Kyle Chayka Transcript The world is awash with interesting elections this year—there are a record number of people participating in democratic activities, from Indonesia to the EU's 27 governments—and we've just seen the UK's citizenry topple their long-governing Conservative Pa...
Jul 09, 2024•24 min
This week we talk about the APA, the Supreme Court, and Marbury v. Madison. We also discuss the Chevron Doctrine, government agencies, and the administrative state. Recommended Book: A City on Mars by Kelly and Zach Weinersmith Transcript The Supreme Court's 1803 Marbury v. Madison decision was pivotal to US legal theory and practice because it established the concept of judicial review, which essentially said that US courts could assess laws passed through the typical legislative system, throug...
Jul 02, 2024•19 min
This week we talk about China, Russia, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. We also discuss BRICS, North Korea, and the post-WWII global world order. Recommended Book: Supercommunicators by Charles Duhigg Transcript The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, is a defense and economic alliance that was started by China and Russia back in 2001, and which has since expanded to become the largest regional organization in the world in terms of both land area and population, encompassing som...
Jun 25, 2024•19 min
This week we talk about the National Rally, Macron, and the European Union. We also discuss Marine Le Pen, elections, and the French National Assembly. Recommended Book: Pockets by Hannah Carlson Transcript The first week of June 2024, the EU held its parliamentary election, the tenth since it began holding such elections in 1979, and this one was notable in part because the number of MEPs—Members of European Parliament—increased from 705 to 720, due to population changes in the bloc, those new ...
Jun 18, 2024•18 min
This week we talk about search engines, SEO, and Habsburg AI. We also discuss AI summaries, the web economy, and alignment. Recommended Book: Pandora’s Box by Peter Biskind Transcript There's a concept in the world of artificial intelligence, alignment, which refers to the goals underpinning the development and expression of AI systems. This is generally considered to be a pretty important realm of inquiry because, if AI consciousness were to ever emerge—if an artificial intelligence that's trul...
Jun 11, 2024•28 min
This week we talk about secret documents, hush-money payouts, and federal court cases. We also discuss polling, independents, and post-presidential felonies. Recommended Book: The Final Empire by Brandon Sanderson Transcript It's a weird time in American politics for many reasons, including but not limited to the increasing polarization of the two main parties, the difficulty in finding bipartisan opportunities to work together, the concomitant tendency for Congress, and lawmakers at other level...
Jun 04, 2024•23 min
This week we talk about the Tories, Labour, and the UK Parliament. We also discuss the House of Commons, the House of Lords, and Rishi Sunak’s gamble. Recommended Book: Like, Literally, Dude by Valerie Fridland Transcript The government of the United Kingdom is a constitutional monarchy led by a Prime Minister and their cabinet, the Prime Minister attaining their position through the primacy of their party in the country's key legislation-passing body, its Parliament. So the Prime Minister runs ...
May 28, 2024•17 min
This week we talk about Israel, the Palestinian Territories, and Hamas. We also discuss Egypt, the Rafah Crossing, and Netanyahu’s motivations. Recommended Book: Going Zero by Anthony McCarten Transcript Israel, as a country, was founded as a consequence of, and in the midst of, a fair bit of conflict and turmoil. It was formally established in mid-1948 after years of settlement in the area by Jewish people fleeing persecution elsewhere around the world and years of effort to set up a Jewish-maj...
May 21, 2024•29 min
This week we talk about ENSO, El Niño, and attribution science. We also discuss climate change, natural disasters, and the trade winds. Recommended Book: Titanium Noir by Nick Harkaway Transcript The field of attribution science, sometimes referred to as "extreme event attribution," focuses on figuring out whether and to what degree a particular weather event—especially rare weather disasters—are attributable to climate change. Severe floods and tornadoes and hurricanes all happen from time to t...
May 14, 2024•17 min
This week we talk about APT28, spoofing, and hybrid warfare. We also discuss the Baltics, Tartu airport, and hacking. Recommended Book: The Middle Passage by James Hollis Transcript In early May of 2024, the German government formally blamed a Russian hacking group called APT28 for hacking members of the governing German Social Democratic Party in 2023, and warned of unnamed consequences. Those consequences may apply just to APT28, which is also sometimes called "Fancy Bear," or they may apply t...
May 07, 2024•19 min
This week we talk about Huawei, DJI, and ByteDance. We also discuss 5G infrastructure, black-box algorithms, and Congressional bundles. Recommended Book: The Spare Man by Mary Robinette Kowal Note: my new book, How To Turn 39 , is now available as an ebook, audiobook, and paperback wherever you get your books :) Transcript In January of 2024, Chinese tech giant Huawei brought an end to its years-long US lobbying effort, meant to help mend fences with western politicians. In mid-2019, then US Pre...
Apr 30, 2024•25 min
