Good Bad or Ugly --Is It Impossible to Predict What’s Ahead for the U.S. Economy?

At the end of October the Federal Reserve gave the financial markets just what they had been asking for: a 0.25% cut in the federal funds rate. But in early November stocks plunged and the dollar hit a new low. Applause turned into hand-wringing -- then back to applause as the markets rebounded in the middle of the month. Why can’t the experts make up their minds? Is the outlook good or bad? According to Wharton faculty forecasting is particularly hard now because some of the key factors -- such as the credit crunch arising from the subprime mortgage mess spiking oil prices and the plunging dollar -- have little historical precedent. The result: Finance experts including the Fed may not be able to see too far down the road.

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