It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind 2028: Is JD Vance Inevitable? Democrats in Disarray & Jeffries’ House Problem

Patrick Day. I hope you all celebrate being Irish, really being Irish, which apparently the President of Ireland and the Prime Minister of Ireland do not share my joy of the history of the Celtic people. I don't know if if anyone saw it, but Michael Martin, the Prime Minister of Ireland, was in Washington on Saint Patrick's Day. I attended an event in the morning with Vice President of Advance.

There was a prayer. President Advance blessed himself. Michael Martin didn't because the Irish politicians are allergic to being Catholic or having Catholic ancestry and lineage to them. Then sat with President Trump and nod how Ireland has just been thriving because of mass immigration. One in four people living in Ireland now is an immigrant. They've opened the floodgates across the country to Ireland and to the Middle East, and it's doing wonders for petty theft and for housing prices.

And you know there's Irish citizens rogue, Irish citizens burning down asylum hotels. He mentions none of that. He says it's right with the economy is thriving. And Trump, to his credit, actually did push back and said a lot of problems are coming with it. And then over in Ireland you had the new Irish president, Catherine Connolly, who

wore black, refused to call Saint Patrick Saint Patrick. She's called him Patrick as if she was his drinking buddy, and then talked about how it's really a day about migration. For those who don't know the history of Saint Patrick. He was a slave. He wasn't a migrant. It is an insult to call a he was a slave. I mean, it was no migration, there was no passport. He went there. He was forcibly brought to Ireland, but did great things with his time there. And it's absolutely in furi The

Irish politicians who govern that country are embarrassments. I know, I have a few Irish listeners. I have relatives who live in County Cork, I have relatives who live in Belfast. It's an embarrassment. It's the most embarrassing politicians of any country in Europe. And England has Cure Starmer. That just goes to show how badly Ireland has fallen on its times. And Ireland is the last country in all of Europe, to Western Europe especially not to have an effective populist

party pushing back in immigration. I know there's the Independence Ireland Party, but they're very small, they're very minor. They're trying to get it together. They only have I think three seats in their parliament, not enough to have any kind of effective governing. And the three major parties all believe in the same thing, which is the erasure of Irish history, of Irish people in Irish culture. Absolutely horror, especially on a day to celebrate the resilience of the

Irish people and all that Ireland gave the world. I mean, it's absolutely astonishing. And you know, it's so funny. There was an app on I see the ads on Instagram all the time. It's a history app. I don't know the name of it, but they one day talked about the two hundred thousand Irish orphans that were shipped to America and used basically as slave labor, and Irish slavery,

which has never talked about in his own country. And the endurance of the Irish people to survive is by famine and really horrific treatment, and now their politicians are willing to wipe that all away in the name of diversity. They have traded hatred for the English for hatred for themselves. And to quote a short lived poem by Patrick Pierce, I am come of the seed of the people, the people of that sorrow, that have no treasure, but hope,

no riches, laid a memory of an ancient glory. My mother bore me into bondage, and as my mother was born, I come of the seat of the people, the people that sorrow. There's no reason Irish people to have any sense of guilt whatsoever, or to destroy their heritage and their country by flooding it with migrants from across the world. Ireland needs, you know, a place for the Irish. It is what it is anyway. I'm not an Irish citizen.

I don't know why I care so much. I think it's because the Irish heritage, and I have relatives named Seamus, so I mean, you get about Irish as it gets, and just to see that just our collective ancestry being washed away. Okay, enough about Ireland, let's talk about America. I am. I know what you're all thinking right now. You're all thinking, Ryan, you were right again? How did you know? How'd you do it? And you're probably all saying,

what are you talking about? So I set a month ago on this podcast that Hakem Jeffrey is going to quickly wake up and realize that if he has a House majority in January, it will be the house that Bernie Sanders built. Bernie Sanders and progressive activists who love

Bernie have been winning primaries across the country. They are changing the face of the Democratic Party, and a lot of them not big fans of Hakeem Jeffries, and they're increasingly saying they're unsure if they're going to support him for House Speaker. Axios. That's what I said a month ago. Now Axis is out with a new report that had a number of Democratic candidates coming forward and saying they are unsure who the next Speaker will be that they're not gung ho for Hakim. This is the quint of

axious Why it matters. It is a stark reversal from Jefferies' virtual untouchable standing in the Democratic Party just a few years ago, and a sign that has passed the speaker may be rockier then previously thought. Jeffries and his allies maintained there's not a remotely worried about a massed affection, pointing out that even the minority, he has endured twenty

speaker ballots and hasn't lost a Democratic vote. But this crop of freshmen may provide the first chink in here two four impenetrable armor, with a block of genuinely viable candidates making clear that voting for Jeffries as Speaker is not a given if the Democrats take the House. As of now, there are eighty candidates running for a Congress this year who say they are not committed to backing Jeffries.

That is not a small number. Especially Democrats find themselves in the same place that Kevin McCarthy did a couple of years ago. You have a majority, it's not a huge majority. What do you do A couple of defections means you have to concede a lot of things to them.

It means you're not guaranteed to get the speakership. And in the era of Trump two point zero term two point zero, there is a lot of belief among rank and not rank Bible but activist Democrats the Democratic Party is not doing enough to fight the Orange Man right that the Democrats have gone along with funding the government that they've gone along with other things that they should have been doing more whatever it is more, I don't know.

I think some Democrat activists would have wanted the Democrats to shut down the government of day one. They possibly could have and kept the government shut down all four years. And Jeffries hasn't gone along with that because being leader means you have to govern responsibly, So no surprise that he didn't do that. What Jeffries has going for him is the same thing that McCarthy had going for me

is that there's no central opposition. Pelosi faced opposition a few times while she was Speaker, but there was a person running against her. There was a guy who running against her and saying I'm going to be the opposition. They always lost, but there was someone to rally troops against Pelosi. There is no one rallying troops against Jeffrey's

like there's no one reallyships against McCarthy. They may be someone saying I don't want him to be in power, but there's no no one's saying vote for me instead, which is important. Matt Gateston on McCarthy. But they didn't find a consensus candidate. Wasn't like Gates himself was being presented as a choice for speaker. There was nobody. It was either McCarthy or nobody. And they're kind of having

the same situation with the Democratic Party right now. They don't have a singular person offering a progressive vision who could raise money, because that's a big part of the job is who can raise money. And the truth is you can't beat somebody with nobody, unless AOC or someone like that who has the belief, the support, the troops, the money, and I can't with this money is very

important for the speaker. You're not going to find somebody kind of break Hakeem Jefferies' lock on the Democratic Party. So Haqem is safe right now, but things are dicey and if they don't get their way or they kept blank, or they cave one or two times, and they have a small majority, it's going to be very very dicey for Jeffries going anyway. That's my little nod to my audience telling I told you guys, I was ahead of

the curb. I knew what was happening, and I think this is going to be a long term issue for Hikim Jeffreys and whoever governs the Democrats in the House. The Democrats are going to act a lot more like the Republicans in the House when it comes to being less orderly. Now, I want to talk about something else that people think is very far into the future, but it's actually only a few months away, and that is the twenty twenty eight presidential election. I know some of

you are like Ryan, that's four years away. No, it's not. The first candidates who will announce their run for the White House will happen within the next nine months. Basically, you will have you could have a baby if you get pregnant today, and you will have a Democrat running for president or a Republican running for president by the time that baby is born. It's not a long time left before we're entering into the twenty twenty eight presidential cycle,

and there's two things. There's two essential questions, which is one is JD Evans inevitable on the Republican side and who is the most likely candidate on the Democratic side. Let's go into the Republican side first. I get messages about JD literally every single week from somebody saying, you know, is the nomination process really over? What has he done to deserve the nomination? Is he ready to be president? Can we nominate someone else? Or is somebody else going

to run? Let me answer the last question first, Is someone else going to run? Yes, other people are going to run. Ted Cruz is almost definitely running for president. You know, he believes that he's got some kind of compact with God where he ends up being president one day. He's almost destined. He's got this, you know, destined from

from Christ himself to be president United States side. Note, you guys remember when he picked Carly Fiorini as his vice presidential candidate and they kind of grass hands and missed each other's hands at the rally. I don't know why that kind of flashed in my memory as I was recalling Ted Cruz running for president, but it did. I've also heard rumors that Brian Kemp, Governor Georgia, is strongly considering a run. Ron to Santa's governor Florida is

considering a run. I've heard Josh Holly, the Senator from Missouri, is asking questions. Ram Paul says that he's exploring his options. He's the senator from Kentucky. Steve Bannon, I've heard for a while wanted to run. But the Epstein stuff, the idea that he made this video tape with Epstein, not not those kinds of tapes, but a different kind of tape with Epstein and was interviewing him and never released the footage and could have been very complimentary for Epstein,

possibly in the footage. Whatever the case may be, I heard, it's really hurt his potential of running. There's other people who want to run but don't really have a lane. Telsea Gabbard I heard, is interested but doesn't know if she has got a lane. R Okay Junior very much wants to make a run for something and doesn't know if he has a lane. And then there's the nine hundred pounds elephant in the room, which is Mark or Rubio.

Now Rubio has been doing optionally good job as Secretary of State, and everyone has taken notice, including the president, and it's clear that Rubio is having an effect on the President's thinking when it comes to foreign policy. According to several reports, President Trump has asked multile people if he should endure Vance or Rubia for president, and at least one report said that a lot of donors really

do love Rubio. They love Rubia Moore. Also, I want to point out that Susie is very close to Rubio as well. Susie the chiefest staff. Now. Polling on the twenty twenty eight presidential race is very, very difficult because there are multiple names that are being floated in these polls who are not running, like Donald Trump Junior is not running for president. There is no reason why a pollster is throwing his name on a poll because it changes the poll's outcome. Because the polls very very high.

Is the president's son, and it absolutely affects the way that these polls are coming out in the certainty of these polls, so other poles that just have the most likely contenders. Vans has a formidable twenty two thirty point lead against Rubio, who's a distance second, and then Dessanta's is in third, and he's just in the high single digits in early swing states and polls like in New Hampshire, Advance is more than fifty percent. Even Rubio is not

even in double digits. Now. Obviously, if Trump were to endorse Rubeo over Vans, that would change things considerably. But I have a hard time seeing that happen. And here's the reason Vans is doing fundraising for the twenty twenty six midterms. Vance is creating these independent relationships with donors. Vance is also whilst campaign isn't up and running yet, it will escalate quickly after the midterms, and it will have a lot of the infrastructure from the Trump twenty

twenty four campaign on his side and Rubio. That's I think that's why Rubio has firmly said I'm not running. Advance is running now. If there's going to be some kind of upset where Rubio is shocks everybody and announces, it has to be in the next six months, because it's got to be. You have to get the jump start to create a parallel organization and kind of take over part of the Trump organization that I don't think that Advance would just give up on his own. So no,

I don't think that vance is inevitable. But if you were a betting man and you're placing your house on the betting markets, you should bet on vance. That's what my opinion. Now on the Democratic side, there's so many people running it is becoming a clown car. You have Kentucky Governor Andy Basheer, Senator of from New Jersey, Corey Booker. You have Pete Buddhagjeeds. You have Rammanuel, former White House Sheep of Staff or President Obama and mayor of Chicago.

You have Josh Green, the governor of Hawaii. I had to look him up to I don't know who Josh Green was when I first read that he was considering running. Kamala Harris, the former Democratic nominee from twenty twenty four. Senator Mark Kelly from Arizona, Senator Ruben Gego from Arizona, Congressman Roe Connor from California, Governor Gavin Newsom from California, Congress from Alexander Cortest from New York, Centator John Auso from Georgia, Governor J. P. Pritzker from Illinois, and Governor

Joshapiro from Pennsylvania. Okay, that is the people who are running on the Democratic side so far, those of the names being floated so far. Early polls at this part far out without someone sitting in office, really is about name ID and obviously Kamala Harrison Gavin Newsom have the highest name I D they have the upper hand in these polls. But what is more important than the name recognition for the Democratic nomination is the calendar. No one

is talking about this. See, the Democratic primaries has changed significantly where states like Iowa and New Hampshire, which used to go first, have been pushed aside from South Carolina. The Democratic Party says they're too white, and you know, white people, if they get a voice in the Democratic Party, it's you know, that's bad news. Can't can't let a white man from the Midwest have a voice in the

Democratic Party. Absolutely not allowed. So they've moved to South Carolina, which is a majority black voting population with the Democratic primary. And that is the way that most of the Deep South still is. There's something like Florida. I don't think that it's like that anymore. Texas is not like that anymore. But most of the states in the South are still black majority Democratic voting bates, and they favor candidates who are more establishment, who are more centrists, and they give

the Democratic nomination. It is almost virtually impossible to win the Democratic nomination without the support of older black women in the Deep South. They nominated Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton. I mean only I think John Kerry, and only because John Kerry won all the states before the South, and so by that point it was just kind of cleaning up. I think he lost, you know, I think he lost North and South Carolina, but he was the only one and he was able to speak

basically everywhere else. He might have lost one other state to I think maybe lost Oklahoma as well, but he basically swept the entire race very very quickly. But he was once again the only one. So you need the Deep South. You need old ladies, the black old ladies Deep South. And who they support is who the likely Democratic nominee eventually will be. They're not going to support a people to judge. They're not going to vote for a gay candidate. They're not going to support a radical

left winger. They're not going to support a Bernie Sanders. They probably will not support an AOC. So that's who you have to keep an eye out for. If you're going to stare at cross poles, at crosstabs and polls, that's who you want to look at. How are black voters in the South considering who are they voting for right now? They really do like Kamala Harris still because

she was the nominee, she's a black woman. We'll see if they find favor or of love with anybody else, but right now, according to the most recent pole, there's been no polls in South Carolina, but according to the most recent nationwide poles, thirty six percent of black voters say Kamala Harris and if she holds true that she

could absolutely be the nominee. Again with me to discuss all things twenty twenty eight is the great journal us Mark Apprin that's coming up with me to discuss the twenty twenty eight election is legendary journalist Mark Appron of Next up with Mark Auburn and Chwo Way Fame. Thank you so much for coming on.

things have happened. First of all, the rise of Rubio, just the groundswell of interest in in and support of him, and the belief amongst many stakeholders that Rubio would be a better nominee is pretty big. So that's number one. Number two, Vance has rubbed some people the wrong way, and his public appearances and his private meetings with donors.

He's just went from a run of nine months or so of extreme popularity and being extremely well received, and now some people having questions about his personality and about his failure to repudiate people like Tucker Carlson, so some

doubts about him. And then, lastly, as it's become a kind of a possibility that it won't be Vance, whether Ted Cruz runs or other people run, just a sentiment of he needs to earn this, that it wouldn't be in the party's interest, and it wouldn't be right to simply hand him the nomination, and that there should be whatever needs to happen to make it a competitive process needs to happen. So those three things have combined to make me pull back from my view that it was a mortal locke for Vance.

upon him. But there is a belief among people in Vance camp that there shouldn't that the vice president shouldn't even be on a debate stage with anybody else, that he should be running by himself. Is that you think the wrong opinion to make among Republican voters.

that he wouldn't get the president's endorsement. And then the question is, is the RNC finance share, which is a unique slot, would be given to an incumbent vice president with presidential ambitions as someone who still retains an extraordinary amount of goodwill within the party is the front runner in the polls. I think he'd win every element of the invisible primary well before any votes were cast, So

that's what would lead him to get Trump's endorsement. And I think to largely clear the field again, well before anybody voter to voters, to voters eventually, if he refused to debate, if he didn't clear the field, would they care? Maybe? But I think the question will largely be answered before voters cast.

that's interesting. Why are people talking so much about how awesome Rubio is? Then I think, you know, as much as he may want to anoint Vance, eventually, you know, he likes competition. He likes to put scorpions in a bottle and or you know, go to the Bronx to a cock fight and see people hammer each other, and then you know, again he's a pretty sophisticated TV producer. He sees what I see, which is Vance has had some less than surefooted moments in public and Rubio has

not of late. So probably all those things just make him want to make mischief. And he knows that even if he's his thought is you know, if I'm right then eventually he's going to endorse Vance. There's no cost to doing this now, and probably he sees an upside that Advance should have some competition, because if he endorsed Vance right away, or if he only said nice things about Advance, I think he probably believes Vance would get

to the general election without any sort of test. And as you know, often candidates who have rough nomination fights go into the general election a lot more battle tested and ready for the fight. Then if they if they cruise the nomination.

I think it is really actually haunting him with a certain segment of the population that can't be understated. I mean, it's it's real, like, it's not fake. Anymore. I believe things are fake until I've heard it a million times. I'm like, Okay, maybe it's real, but I do believe it's real.

not just Tucker. You know, those those college Republicans who had the text chain where they you know, made jokes about Hitler some other people in MAGA, like the Vice president's attitude is seems to be in kind of a I would say, almost childish way, is to be like, ah, I'm not going to repudiate people just because people tell me to repudiate people without regard to well, like would you repudiate you know, Osama bid Laden, right, so so so I totally agree with you that I hear it

all the time. And like I said, it's not just that it kind of rubs them the wrong way from a from a you know, like a political point of view. Really they think it speaks to his values, and of course it plays into the doubts that a lot of people have had about him. Over the course of his time in public life that he went from saying Trump was the Republican Parties Hitler to saying Trump was the

greatest president of all time. And they just some people seeing him a phony and a person and without values and without a north Star. And the Tucker stuff plays into that for a lot of people, not just Jews, but a lot of Jews.

I'm sorry, I gave you the wrong impression. He's on my list of eight because of such a weak field and because he does have so much support for the establishment, and under certain circumstances, I believe he could be endorsed by both Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, which for a lot of voters could make a difference. Endorsements really do. But I think those might, So I'm not bullish on him at all. I'm aware though that a lot of my sources are what in your.

They want someone who's got energy, they want someone who seems to be able to bridge the divides within the party and within the country. So I think I unlike some past cycles, and again partly it's because the calendar is unsettled, and partly because of the fields so weak. I don't see lots of specialization in terms of either

demographics or giagrit geography. At this point, I think everybody is trying to play everywhere and because no one is particularly strong you can beat Pete bootagege historically, you know, comically with black voters and say I'm going to make a play for that, because with the exception of Kamala harris'sually no one in the in the potential field who has some sort of historic or deep hold on black women voters.

But I think that there is. I think there's a cautionary tale with Kamala Harris in twenty twenty four where she famously said that she would give transgender illegal alliens free medical care and it really did actually hurt her base with progress with with regular voters and for the you know, love of progressives that she did'ed up getting. Anyway, is there caution exists today at all? Like, hey, we can't go too far to the left. I know Andy Basher does it, but does anybody else.

Gavin Newsom does it. Episodically, I think there's part of why this is so unsettled, besides again the weakness of the field and the lack of DNC sanctioned nominating calendar, is there's two variables that if you look at the elections of twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, you would say would be a super source of strength for the Democratic nominee, because I believe Sanders, Senator Sanders would have been the nominee in sixteen and in twenty if the DNC hadn't

agreed the rules to keep him from winning. One is super progressive, and with the exception of AOC and Rocanna, there's no one else in my top lists that are super progressive, like single payer, green, new deal, you know all that. So that's one, and then the other is is sort of a populist outsider that no member of Congress except AOC need apply. Even governors might not be outsider enough.

effort to register. Maybe I mean it affects new registrations on existing ones. I think it will have a minimal effect. Where I think it could have a large effect. The place is going to have the biggest effect is in states with automatic voter registration, so among Spring State's places

like Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. In Georgia, I think you will actually help Republicans a lot a lot of lober pencany, mostly black voters who do turn out for Joe Biden, who turn out for Stacy Abrams, who turn out for any Democrat. They will likely not be able to automatically get voter registration, which means they have to do the work and not just show up on election day, which

would probably decrease voter turnout among that population. But it's going to be very small, my bet, and I don't think it's going to necessarily change the economy too much. I would guess if I had to put up money a where it helps Republicans, it will affect automatic voter registration, and that will impede probably automatic registration in states that in states with large populations of lower pensity Democratic voters like Nevada and Georgia. That's my guess. We'll see, we'll

see if it even passes. I mean, they're coming up to a problem and I will leave some Rokowski not supporting it, so who knows. I mean, it's gonna be by the skin of their teeth that they get this thing through. We'll have to wait to see. Anyway. That's this episode. If you like this podcast, please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast where to get your podcast, and I will talk to you guys on Friday. Bye.