What's Next for Iran?

And by night as the attacks were going on. As the strikes were going on, Benna Montanio came on TV and he said that I have some news, I have some information that confirms that Alikamani is dead, which caused a lot of panic and excitement among the people, and everybody was really excited and they were waiting for this to be confirmed. And then some people came out and said, no, it's not true. But after some hours the Iranian state media,

the TV channels all started confirming that. So following that the attacks did not stop. They were still going on, and then the American Army also joined. This is a completely coordinated cooperation between US and Israel. So as they were attacking different IIERGC bases and the facilities belonging to the government, the Iranian government started attacking the neighboring countries. They attacked UAE, they attacked Katar, they attacked Bahrain, they

attacked Iraq, and they attacked also Iraqi Curtistan region. And they were just mainly targeting the US basis or facilities belonging to the US, but soon after they started attacking civilian buildings like hotels, like just randomly attacking different directions. And at the same time they also started sending missiles and drones towards Israel, which majority of them were intercepted.

So they've been attacking these neighboring countries since the beginning of this war, and they have been specifically targeting Iraqi Curtistan because first, the US has a lot of big military bases there in Iraq and Iraqi Kuddistan region. And at the same time they are the Kurdish parties from Iran who are based there and the regime has been seeing them as one of the major threats since decades.

So since the beginning of this whole war, they have been targeting these Kurdish parties a lot, and they also attacked there is a refugee base that the families of

the Kurdish forces basically lived there. They also attacked there, but luckily nobody was killed or injured, but some buildings were damaged, and they attacked erville with drones and missiles several times, which were all mainly intercepted by the US air defense systems because of the remainings of the missiles and the drones that were falling down from the scuise.

Some people were lightly injured or some buildings were damaged, but yeah, still it's a crazy thing to see because previously in the past years, Iran had attacked or built several times and also other regions, but the US or the other countries that were there, they didn't really intercept the drones or the missiles. There's also something new that

we're seeing. It's also important to know that Iran has also attacked Cypress, like British military bases were targeted there, but the drones or the missiles were sent from Lebanon. What's going on right now is the full scare war, and I think when you look at it, it's nothing like what we've seen before. If you want to compare it to what happened in Iraq the US invasion, this

is completely different. I think it's even larger than that because Iran is a very big country and there are hundreds or maybe thousands of points across the country that have been targeted with heavy bombings inside Tehran, around Tehran. It's also really incredible to know because the amount of intel that you need for this is also really a lot. I've seen videos, I've seen footage, I've seen reports that some random checkpoints on some remote places, especially in Curtison,

we're targeted. So this is also something that shows that how really coordinated and well planned this attack and this war is I want to jump into something because a lot of people are really focused on these major attacks, major developments like yeah, they're attacking Dubai, they're attacking Doha. These are all happening, and of course the civilians they're also in danger. I think somebody in Doha was killed

in the first day. It was just a civilian that was killed by the remainings of a massoul or a drone. And this has made things really hard for the people on the round. Many people are trapped in the airports on the borders, so this is this is something that's happening to the people outside of a round, but inside Iran there is massive bombings everywhere wherever the IERGYC or

the intelligence service has a facility. And at the same time, the regime has cut off the internet, even though the normal phone lines barely work, and it's just so hard and almost impossible to get really precise information about what's happening in the cities in the and the towns around, just like what happened in the in the early January, like during the process. Only a few people have access

to the internet and it's very limited. Yeah, they share some videos with channels and like with news agencies, but it's very limited. For example, in my hometown today, some of the major iergycy bases and intelligence facilities that were some of the most important ones in western side of Iran, or as we call it, Iranian Critisonal or Rochalot, they were all bombed and I've been trying to contact people

to see what happened exactly. I'm sure that there are civilians killed because the regime also has put all these bases inside the cities, near parks, near hospitals, near schools, near just random houses in the city, So a lot of people are possibly killed, but we don't know how many who are they. So this is this is also like not just in my city, in other cities to it's it's the same. This is also something that a

lot of people are not talking about. But again, this is war, and the bombings are so heavy, and they're all being carried out with really advanced weapons, and it's just so hard. And when I talk to the people outside of Iran, the people in Europe, like some of my friends relatives, everybody's worried that what if one of my relatives, what if one of my one of my friends get get killed randomly on the street. But because of this that people are seeing this also on the news.

At least I know this from my family because I was able to talk to them two nights ago. Everybody's staying home, they have enough food for a few weeks, and they're just watching the news. They don't go out. Yeah, they're just trying to stay safe. But at the same time, in major cities like for me, for example, the people who have a house outside of the city or in a village, or if they have relatives outside of the city,

they have moved out because it's generally safer. There are not many IRGC bases or like government government buildings or whatever in the villages and smaller towns, so this is also happening, and people are trying to stay safe as much as possible. And yeah, this is something that's going on. And at the same time, when I talk to the people, I mean I haven't been able to properly talk to

anyone because the internet is really bad. But like I talked to my family and they told me that the food prices are really, really, really high, and it's really hard to buy food now because everybody's panicking and there are shortages, like there's some items cannot be found, some like essential items like I don't know, oil, meat and rice and things like that. It's it's too hard to find in the market. And a lot of people are going to the to the gas stations to get some

gas and to be prepared if something happens. But yeah, so this is also something that's going on, and people are worried about that what if it's it's going to get bigger, if it's going to scale it, so, like how are they going to deal with all these shortages. There is one more topic that I want to talk about. I also wrote about it a little bit earlier. I published some text. It's the topic of or soldiers.

the possibility of course, it's surreal today. One person, a young man from Curtison, was confirmed that he was killed, but I'm sure that there are more because we don't have a proper internet connection so we cannot like get all the information. But these military bases are being also targeted, and of course I think a lot of them might get killed or injured. And just from my own family, one of my cousins who is twenty four, he was also forced into this because he wanted to open a business.

And like in Iran, a lot of people also maybe I should give a little bit of context, like in Iran, if you want to open a business, if you want to have a passport or things like that, you have to serve in the army and we'll give you that. So yeah, he just he was listed, like I don't know, about five months ago or so, and then he wasn't in a military base between Tabriz and Urmia, and their base was targeted. Luckily, the slipping quarters were not targeted.

It was just where the commanders were I think staying. And yeah, I mean I couldn't talk to him, but he told my cousin who I called like two days ago, he said that the moment they was bombed, everybody just ran out, and then everybody went back in and they took all their belongings and backpacks and they just left the military base and they went home without telling the wiser or something, and they were not they're they're not going to go back there anyways. So this is also

something that I am personally worried about. All those young men who are forced to be in the military basis, and they are absolutely not a part of the regime. There are just civilians who are forced into this, So that that's also something that I think it's it's not really discussed because the whole focus right now is just on the major attacks. Which place was targeted or like which I don't know commander was killed or things like that.

because they have been raised in a state system. But I don't think that that it's a particularly it's not useful to see everybody who lives in the Iranian state as part of the Iranian state. It doesn't actually give

us a good grasp on reality. So perhaps you could explain, first of all, perhaps explaining the structures of the Iranian state when it comes to like, there are pro regime militias right there are the ILGC, and then we have like the leadership, many of whom are now dead, some of whom we know, some of whom we think are dead. But then we also have and I know you and I have spoken about this before, but it's worth explaining again, right, Like Iran is the ethnically diverse country, so we have

people who are ethnically excluded from power. We also have people within the majority ethnicity Persian, people who are not pro ratime. So could you perhaps explain like those structures that exist. And then you and I spoke about this a little bit before we were recording, But many of the facilities of the regimes, armed forces and repressive forces are right in the middle of town, right right next

to civilian building. So perhaps we could explain the consequences of that for civilians as bombs of falling on these facilities.

But the Iranian state structure is actually quite complicated. You know. They follow some sort of religious hierarchy that the Supreme Leader is the representative of God on earth and he is leading the Muslim nation until the Ima Mahti, the savior of the world, comes from the skies and saves the world and brings peace. So this is what they actually believe. So the Supreme Leader is actually the person

who approves everything. Yeah, there is normal parliament with the representative of the people, but at the same time there is another type of religious parliament that decides on the interests of the regime, which consists of some high level clerics or the molas, who are on a higher social level.

And at the same time, there is also a council of twelve people, six of them are molas, six of them are like lawyers and jurists that they are monitoring the let's say, the whole political process in the government. But whatever happens when you see that, Yeah, this is on paper and theory, this is a system that could possibly work. But all of these organizations or these parts of the regions or layers of the regime that I mentioned, all of them they follow the supreme leader and whatever

they do has to be approved by him. Yeah. I mean, I'm not talking about like I don't know, the things that are decided in a city council or like very lolol. I'm talking about the national interests or things like that, or who's going to be the next president for example. But basically that parliamentary system or those counselings are basically

non functional. They're just there for a show. And at the same time, especially in the past decades, the iergy see it's not only a military force that it's not a militia that follows the leader. It's a whole organized and complicated structure that owns the economy, owns all the institutions in Iran and controls all of them. We're talking about the oil sector, we're talking about industry, we're talking about agriculture. I mean, almost everything is owned by them.

And I ergy is a network of countless high level commanders or even let's say non military person that are that are all working together and they are running the country somehow, and of course even if the leader is dead, they still have some structures to continue to carry carry on. And this is how how the structure is in Iran. And I think I think this is what makes Iran very very different from other states and in the Middle East.

And it's something that makes run also very different from what for example, if you want to compare it to Sudamhossein system or in in Libya or in Syria, it's it's very different because the IRGC has put its hands

and roots everywhere in every institution. We're talking about schools, we're talking about universities, we're talking about hospitals, we're talking about anything that you can imagine even in a post office like we were talking about this earlier, So that there is like in every governmental institution, from universities to schools and hospitals. Ii ERGC always has a specific office

in every facility. It's supposed to recruit people to join the resistance, but in fact it's just a it's just an office to observe the people who are there or the people who are going there for their daily matters. So they have control over everything, and that's what makes this regime very very structured and very hard to just topple in two nights. So that's why they are still resisting.

There are still fighting back. There are still even though Israel and America have destroyed majority of their military basis and facilities, but they are still fighting back. This is also important to understand, I think, yeah.

those religious leaders. Like what they did in Venezuela was that they found somebody who was no less repressive, but was amenable to doing what they wanted right specifically with resources, specifically with oil. You know, we run the risk of a similar thing happening in it Ran, right of like someone within the IRGC being like, we will do what you need us to do with oil as long as you allow us to continue murdering the Iranian people as

much as we wish. Like, that's a real worry. They will find someone who they think they can do business with that that's what they wanted in Venezuela, right, Ran in Venezuela are different. They are both allied, but they're the very different countries. Yeah, but that's a real worry for people.

But it's not really clear if USA and America have made a deal with him, because he doesn't really have that social base that he claims to have. And on the other side, there are the ethnic groups, especially Kurts, Balucci's and Aquasi Arabs. They're they're like better organized compared

to other ethnic groups. And then today we just saw that Trump has made phone calls with the Kurdish leaders of these parties and the other parties in Iraqi curtism, this means something, and so yeah, it's it's not really clear that they're going to have a similar plan like Venezuela or they're gonna have something completely different for Iran. We're just waiting to see what's going to happen in the in the upcoming weeks, because it's just a few days that the war is going on. The entire region

is in a shock. It's it's it's still not clear that how people are going to decide on their future now because the war is still going on and it's a very very high level. So of course it's it's also like even when I when I was talking to my family the other day, they were telling me, I mean most people in Kurdistan. I would say, majority of the people in in Kurdistan, they don't want monarchy back

of course, they don't want another form of dictatorship. And they would say, yeah, we want anyone to be installed, but not this Sky, not not this Razapala. We don't want him. Anyone is better than him. So this is also something and I think probably if they want to install Raza Palavi, the ethnic groups will not accept it and there's going to be more resistance and therefore more wars.

doesn't necessarily tell us anything. I think it's very easy. Again, like there's this American media frame of analysis which sees groups in the Middle East as monolithic, right, the Kurds, as if they're like an entirely homogeneous entity with one

political interest, which is not the case. But like, for America to fully remove this regime and Israel, it needs either a partner force or to be willing to commit thousands of its own soldiers to fight and know that hundreds of them will die, right, like like they'd in a ruck, I guess, like knowing what we know and knowing that there are these groups, right, and maybe it would be good to give people a primer on the

Eastern Kurdistan resistance groups and the alliance that they've recently formed, Like where are they standing right now? And know they released a statement yesterday, but can you explain that to a little bit to people.

cooperation between these parties, and they finally announced that. Of course, two parties like the Komala and another branch, they did not join it because they had some disagreements, but that is also normal. So the thing is that these parties would definitely work together if the things are going to

escalate more. For example, if I want to say about a week ago, the Riza Palavi, he published a statement and he threatened Kurdish people that if they think about autonomy or I don't know, thinking about taking quote unquote parts of Iran's oil, We're going to use the army against them in the future. It's incredible that the first Kurdish official who answered to that statement was Abdullah Mortardi from the Komala, who was not a part of the coalition.

So that means that even though they have disagreements, but they are still trying to work together and help each other. I have talked to some people in the Kourtish parties. They are fully prepared for anything that could happen in the upcoming weeks or days or even months. I don't know.

They're fully prepared, And what I know is that they are telling me that they are prepared that the Israeli army and also the American army would bomb or destroy the military bases on the border and also the checkpoints so that it would be easier for them to enter. And probably if it's going to be bigger than that, then maybe they could take over the controls of the cities.

And what's really interesting is that they yesterday, these five parties the coalition, published a statement and there were several points, but one of the points was that was really interesting for me was that they were calling on people to not damage any public buildings like banks, goals, I don't know, offices, and that means that probably there is a movement that they want to come back and take over all these

buildings and try to control the cities better. So this is also something and there is a lot of discussion on social media and people are all saying that, yeah, we are ready that if something happens, we will go in. And I think right now the situation is really complicated and like we don't know how people can actually enter yet. And you said that, yeah, if there is going to be a force that's ready, to sacrifice thousands of its members. I think there are the Kurts are ready to fight.

They have been ready to fight for forever, for decades. Yeah, so this is also like something that the Courtish people already know that if we want to get rid of this regime, we have to sacrifice more. For me, it's very painful to say this, but I think our people have to sacrifice a little bit more more than that. They have been sacrificing for over one hundred fifty years,

and I think maybe they have to sacrifice more. But one point here is that when I see what's happening, when I see that what is being said, that Trump is talking to the Kurdish parties, to the Kurdish organizations about the situation, one thing that I think about is that given the history of at least fifteen sixteen years of cooperation between America and the Kurds in Rajava, in in Syria and the fight against ISIS, which was which was a great opportunity for Kurdish people, but at the end,

Trump just let Kurts down and didn't really support them against Turkey, against all these Jadist groups that are supporting Seria. So the question is that what if we fight against this regime, we we destroy the regime. I mean, it's not just us. I have to mention that the other ethnic groups are also ready. But what if all these

ethnic groups fight this regime, they destroy this regime. And what if Trump just brings someone really bad and someone really useless, like Rizopaalavi or other Iranian figures that of course are not after Kurdish people's interests. What if somebody likes that comes in power and then the same situation goes on, and then we have to fight that system over and over again. So this is also something that I that I also think about it, but we still

don't know what will happen is America's exact plan. It could be something like Iraqi Curtisan, which could benefit the ethnic groups a lot. Of course, there's still gonna be civil war, probably there's gonna be instability, but at least the ethnic groups might be able to self determine, you know, like might might be able to control their areas and get rid of that Iranian control to some extent, maybe not fully, but that is also something that could be possible.

And of course there's going to be killing, there's going to be a lot of civilians killed, and we know that already during all these bombings, many civilians are killed. We don't know how many exactly because there is no internet connection to make sure about the numbers or to investigate that. But of course all these Iranian government buildings are RGC bases, intelligence offices or facilities that are all located in civilian areas in the cities, in the city

centers all over Iran and also Kurtistan. So there's always going to be some civilians who are living, were walking around there and they get killed. So this is also something that's that's really painful. But I think our people really had have had enough and they were ready for this, and they were they knew that this is this was this was going to happen, and yeah.

It was the battle against Isis and and this idea of brotherhood of people's right that they would liberate the Arab people who lived there. Obviously that has resulted in these horrible things that we've seen over the last month. And then the thought of like, oh, well, you just sent ten thousand more of your children to die so you can liberate people in Tehran and then we'll leave you again. I was just thinking about like a four years ago, I was in the Solomonia and I went

to the museum. You know that they have the Red Security Building and they have like a very good history of the Amphile, the genocide against the Kurdish people committed by the Bathist state, and then they have the nineteen ninety one uprising, and then they have a lot of commemoration of the battle against the Islamic State. And like, for my entire life, like the Americans have been leaving Kurdish people to die and then urging them to rise

up again. And it's just it's an incredible like revolutionary capacity and capacity for sacrifice. But it's also just very sad that Americans constantly expect Kurdish people to continue to sacrifice and then never fill up their end of the bargain.

in Rajava. And there is also like a threat against the Iraqi Curtism region right now from Turkey and also from Iraq, and it's it's just the bitter truth that, yeah, apparently Curts are not considered as a long term partner for the us R and also the other Western countries. But like all these horrible things that are that have been happening to our people in the past one hundred years, I mean, a part of it is of course the result of the Western countries and colonization from the European

countries Great Britain, Russia and also America. But at the same time, it's it's it's really important to not forget that the majority of this tragedy that our people are are living in is also caused by by by Turks, Arabs and Persians. And by that I just don't mean the state. I also mean the whole structure in the

Middle East that has been prosecuting the Kurts. It's it's been centuries that are our people are trapped between these powers, the Turks, Prisions and Arabs that are also fighting each other. But then they bring all of their wars inside or homeland, and then our people get killed and displaced and face

all the tragedies. So yeah, this is also our situation right now, and I don't know if it's going to be changed to a better situation because it's just so unclear that how the superpowers, how the major powers, the original powers are are planning for these things, and how

their interests actually matter. Like we talked about, if America, if Turkey or NATO and other Arab countries were not backing the new Syrian government, I would call it Syrian Arab government because that's how they identify themselves.

I think the next is going to be what America and Europe want. Like I'm sure that they don't care about what the people in Kurdistan or the people in Iran want. They just want to do whatever they want, whatever that benefits them. And of course the neighboring countries will also follow, from the Arab countries and definitely Turkey, they will follow the plan that benefits them. So the

people are trapped between these decisions. If the Iranian structure also remains, probably they would also change course and then cooperate with the with America or Israel or NATO or Arab countries only to remain in power and maintain their interests.

based in Iraqi, Curtistan. I would also suggest to follow the social media pages belonging to the Kurdish parties like KDPI or Comala, just like their official pages on Twitter or It's for example, they post a lot of really good information. I would also suggest, I think I also suggested in our last talk, there is this person and

called Vahit online. He is an independent journalist and he has like some really big platforms and he posts a lot of reliable information and videos about the locations and the things that are happening. And I would also suggest to follow some other journalists like Ali Jawan Mahrdi. He is the manager and supervisor of the Voice of America. He also like he has several platforms and they post. He posts a lot of updated information about what's happening.

But here's also something that I want to warn about.

I would suggest people to not really believe in what they see on TV channels or media like Iran International, MANOTO, TV, BBC, Persian because all these media have turned into a platform to do the propaganda for the monarchists, and they have been posting a lot of fake news, a lot of AI generated content, and it's been really damaging the whole course of the if I want to call it the revolution or the war or whatever like that's happening inside

Iron and Curtiston. So yeah, these are the things that I can suggest so far.