What Next for the People of Iran?

multi front war against the people of the Middle East. Normally, one would expect a major war with a major power like this, which has fundamentally destabilized the region, a ground world trade to a halt, caused massive inflation, to have some kind of very clearly defined set of goals. That is not the case here. We have seen various justifications, but the most common one seems to be that Iran

is just weeks from creating a nuclear bomb. This is a claim that specifically Benjaminett and Yahoo has been making for almost the entire time I have been alive. Here he is saying something similar a decade ago.

the USA and Israel attempt to bomb nuclear facilities. Indeed, the White House itself publishes statement on the twenty fifth of June following Operation Midnight Hammer, in which they quoted the Israel Atomic Energy Commission saying, quote, we assessed that the American strikes and around nuclear facilities, combined with the Israeli strikes on other elements of Iran's military nuclear program, has set back Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons by

many years. The achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material. It also include a quotation from Pete Hegseth, as Secretary of Defense, saying quote, based on everything we have seen, and I've seen it all, our bombing campaign abliterated Iran's ability to create nuclear weapons that was less a year ago. It seems unlikely that they destroyed much or any of the uranium that was stockpiled, but they certainly would have delayed plans to enrich that

uranium or to build into a bomb. Nonetheless, on the twenty eighth of February this year, a massive campaign of air strikes, high mars Ber arches and ballistic mistile attacks on Iran began under the codename Operation Epic Fury. The acronym OEF will be familiar to many as the same one used by the USA for more than a decade of war in Afghanistan and other parts of the world

during what it called the Global War on Terror. On the day I'm writing this, it's exactly twenty three years since United States marines tore down the statue of Saddam Hussein that stood outside the seventeenth of Ramada Mosque in Ferdo Square in Baghdad, removed his regime from power. Since then, for my entire adult life and much of my childhood, the USA has been dropping bombs on the Middle East.

This month, the temper and ferocity of the aerial bombardment took a step to a temper we haven't seen since perhaps the peak of the Coalition war against the Islamic State, or perhaps even the shock and or bombing campaign of March two thousand and three. And I want to go back to that campaign to explain exactly how we got to this one. The chokan Or campaign was based on a doctrine called rapid dominance that sought to establish a

post Cold War military ethos the United States. The theorist behind it named Alman and Wade explicitly outlined that to work the shock and or bombing campaign had to achieve a level of national shock like that of the dropping of the atomic bombs on Japan, and that power and

other civilian infrastructure might well be targeted. In an interview in February two thousand and three, Olmand said, quote, what we want to do is create in the mind of the Iraqi leadership and their soldiers this shock and owe so they're intimidated, made to feel so impotent, so helpless, that they have no choice but to do what we want them to do. So the smartest thing to say

is this is hopeless. We quit. The US attempted to pummel their adversary so hard in two thousand and three that it would demoralized troops and lead to a rapid victory through the use and display of overwhelming force in Iraq twenty three years ago. It sort of worked. The regime crumbled in less than a month, the USA got its quote unquote victory, and by the first of May of that year, George W. Bush had landed on the USS. Abraham Lincoln off San Diego and given a speech in

front of a large banner that read mission accomplished. Twenty three years later, the Lincoln is in the Middle East and bombs are once again raining down on Iran and Iraq, while one way drones and missiles Iran slam into targets all over the region. In Iraq, twenty three years later, the United States embassy is once again being attacked, the US journalist was kidnapped, and the State Department it's telling

citizens to avoid the region. The US bombing campaign in Iran this year dwarfs to two thousand and three Shock and All campaign, with the first day of Operation Epic Fury being almost twice the scale of the two thousand and three bombardment. However, they do have several things in common. Just like the bombardment of Iraq. Even twenty three years later, the US and Israeli air war showed us that there is no such thing as a precision bombing campaign on

this scale. On the very first day of the war, the twenty eighth of February twenty twenty six, a missile slammed into a girl's elementary school in Minab, then another, and then another when the dust settled, more than one hundred and seventy five people have been killed, mostly schoolgirls between the age of seven and twelve years old. The school was located near an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base, but the school building itself had not been part of a

military facility for a decade. And yet, despite targeting technology that allowed three missiles to scream across a continent hit a relatively small target in quick succession, apparently the US military had not been able to ascertain, or did not care to ascertain, that the result of their strike was the death of as many as one hundred school children.

The fact that I am reporting this forty odd days into the war suggests that despite an even larger scale campaign than the USA deployed in two thousand and three, despite the killing of little girls, the Iranian state has not said this is hopeless, we quit as allman hoppy might. Iran Supreme leader Ali Hamani was assassinated in initial attacks. The power has since passed on to his son. Iran remains very much in the fight despite the massive display

of force by the US and Israel. Instead of quitting and giving up, they have been sending ballistic missiles and one way drones into targets throughout the Gulf States, Israel, and southern Kurdistan. This is in part because the United States and Israel had no clear shared plan for this war. In two thousand and three, the US aimed to remove Saddam Pasin, and it did that. It made a massive

cock up of everything it did after that. But this time we have two belligerent nations with very distinct goals who share a common interest in bombing the people of Iran. Israel, which by some accounts hit more targets in the USA early on in the war, is fighting to totally cripple the Iranian state in a no holds barred, no laws of war respected, campaign that has seen it bomb factories,

oil infrastructure, most horrifically of all desalination plants. The goal for Israel is to make it impossible for Iran to recover. It seems, to leave the region mired in poverty and resource constraint, and make sure that no Iranian state, be it this one or a different one, can ever be a threat to Israel. Again. It has assassinated many of the figures who have the ability to negotiate for peace, and the recenc use fire seems to be something that

Israel does not feel itself to be beholden to. For the US, the goal seems to be to use something similar to shock and or to force Iran into conceding its position and allowing the USA some access to its significant petrochemical resources. Perhaps emboldened by its success in Venezuela, the US might be expecting a similar client state relationship here. However,

this has not been the outcome. Over the weekend of the eleventh and twelfth of April, jd Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witcoff flew to Pakistan as part of a Pakistani broke and ceasefire to engage in peace talks with Iran. Before these peace talks, we saw both the US in Iran circlating very different bases for negotiation, with Iran demanding tolls for ships passing near its coastline, an end to sanctions,

and the removal of US forces from the region. The US demanded an end to the nuclear program in Iran, and at one point the President proposed a joint US Iranian toll on ships passing through the Straight of Horn Moose. Straight of Horn Moose is one of the areas where there has been significant disagreement, and so I want to explain a little bit about what the Strait of horn Moose is for listeners who are not familiar. Geographically, the strait connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Verman,

thus the open Ocean. It's just about thirty nine plumes is wide across its narrows point, with about a quarter of the worlds liquefied natural gas and seaborne oil passing through the strait. Because of its geographical location, Asia and Europe are especially reliant on these energy products. Many of the Golf states will have no maritime export routes without

transitting the Strate. In response to the United States and Israel's bombing campaign, Iran effectively closed the straight so a combination of missile threats, claimed mining, very high frequency radio broadcasts warning ships of the two previously mentioned threats, and uncrude surface vessel attacks that blew up and damaged vessels,

including oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. At the time of writing, Iran is threatening ships transiting the Strait, and the US is attempting to blockade all ships that aim to go to Iran. Iran has previously allowed some ships a right to pass safely if they pay a toll payable encrypto currency or Chinese Ian. Some ships appear to have certainly transited the Strait, but many more have not,

and this presents a serious issue for global trade. Luckily, the problems with global trade have not affected our advertisers, so here are some goods and services that will probably cost more than they did a few weeks ago. The United States has a lack of capacity when it comes to mind sweeping. Many of the ships it does have which can do that, but not currently very close to

the straitform moves. On the twelfth of April, it did send two destroyers into the strait normally to begin mind clearing operations, but these aren't really a sort of ships that would do that so much as they would work alongside the ships that do that to provide them with security. There is currently a safe lane through the strait that Iran seems to be sending ships through, but it's a little unclear to what extent, if at all, the strait is mind and what kind of minds were used. Naval

minds can vary. They can be pretty simple, contact fuse minds, like the ones you might have seen in the Mind Sweeper computer game or bottom Mine, triggered by a number of mechanisms. Clearing a body of water this large would take a significant amount of time. Stopping transits through the Strait was not iran only response to the attacks. They have launched a massive fuselade of one way drones and

missiles at targets across the region. Their Shahed drones one of the most significant military innovations of the last decade. They're cheap one way drones that can do tremendous damage at a very low cost. If you've ever heard of Shahed drone, you won't forget what they sound like. It's

like a lawnmow flying over you. These drones have been so successful that the US has cloned captured drones to make its own one way drones, which it calls Lucas drones, and Iran has licensed production to Russia, which uses them in massive numbers against Ukraine. These drones have provided a cheap and relatively easy to launch platform for Iran strikes, which is focused on US allies, Israel, and Bushure Kurdis dan Bashur meaning Southern or Iraqi Kurdistan has taken a

particularly heavy toll. Much as this has been due to reporting in the early days of the conflict, which began with notorious fact check evader Barak Raved much as it's reporting heavily and play or outright said that Kurdish ground forces were repairing an assault into Iran. Raved's piece, which reported that Trump had spoken to two major Curtis leaders, was particularly shocking because it erroneously conflated Iraqi Kurds with

Iranian Kurds, those from Eastern Kurdistan and Rojalad. It's true that the majority of anti regime Kurdish armed groups from Iran retain bases in Iraq, but it's extremely unlikely that the KDP in the p UK, the major actors in Iraqi Kurdistan, will be storming the border into Roja Lat anytime in the near future. However, I have spoken to several of the Rojlati armed groups who are part of

the alliance of political forces of Iranian Kurdistan. The groups involved in a Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan or the PDKI, the Free Life Party of Kurdistan PJAK, the Kurdistan Freedom Party PAK, two of the Komala parties and hubbut or

the organization of the Iranian Kurdistan struggle. The alliance predates the United States and Israeli campaign came around and earlier this year Arash Saleh I spoke him for the PDKI told me quote at this point, the whole coalition is built upon some type of self rule, instide Iranian Kurdistan as the main demand for all of them, and that as a main demand for all the Kurdish people in

Iranian Kurdistan. This unity of groups is a positive step and it represents a real opportunity for the liberation of the people of Roja. But none of these parties are willing to be the spearhead of an American and Israeli offensive without guarantees that they will receive support for their own goals, which are very different to those of the

USA and Israel. In more recent weeks, President Trump has insinuated and Fox News has claimed that he said this, but haven't seen any recording of it, that the United States sent weapons to Iranian protesters through Kurdish groups, but that the Kurdish groups kept them instead of giving them to the protesters. Here's the clip of Trump implying this and you'll have to forgive me for the jrringly awkward light jazz background music here.

they're going to pay a big price for that. But the Iranian people who will fight back as soon as they know they're not going to be shot and as soon as they can get weapons.

confirmed that statement to me this morning. At the time you're hearing this, that will be yesterday morning. I checked in with them. Then transiting the mountains to that part of Kurdistan and then smuggling weapons all the way to Tehran. It's not what they do and it will be very hard for them to do it. Also, at the time of the large anti regime protestin around in January, we saw groups, notably the PAK the Kurdistan Freedom Party using weapons that really don't appear to be US supplied, like

pumpact and shotguns. Nonetheless, this rumor, combined with the fact that Trump really did call Iraqi Kurdish leaders at the start of the conflict, presumably to ask for support, has led to a rax Kurdistan region been targeted a great deal. These drone and rockets rights have not just hit military targets, but also the refugee camps where the families displaced from Roger Laut live and many other civilian targets in major

Kurdish cities. To quote a PDKI a statement quote, since the beginning of the war with the United States in Israel. The Islamic Republican of Run has so far targeted the family camps, medical centers, and educational facilities of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan with more than one hundred and ten missiles inferance. These tags have continued even during the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. But it's not

just Iraqi Kurdistan being bombed. In fact, i Rak has a distinction of being the only country bomb by both sides in the conflict. This is in part this is Popular Mobilization Forces, sometimes referred to by the Arabic name hashtal Shabi in Iraq, have strong ties to Iran. The Popular Mobilization Forces or PMF if you're not familiar, were formed in twenty fourteen and fought against Islamic State in Iraq, but some factions within the PMF r als are now

listed to terrorist groups themselves by the United States. I want to resist doing the rather purel Sunni Shia kurd analysis here because I don't think it explains the whole situation, and it's far too often seized upon by commentators seeking to oversimplify things. Many Kurds are Sunni, for example, but some are Shia. Some Curds are Christian or Jewish who have no religious beliefs. There are other groups in the

region who are not Muslim or Christian. I think it's unnecessarily reductionist, but nonetheless it is worth noting that the PMF are mostly Shia, as is the ratiome in Iran. The PMF have been using drones, rockets and mortars to attack both the US bases and those of the Kurdish Pesh Merger, who they see as tied to the US. On the telegram channels, PMF groups have shown successful at tanks of what used to be Camp Victory near the

Baghdad airport and against the US embassy facilities. While we can talk to Rogularti groups and see PMF statements on telegram, getting information on the conflict from inside Iran that's not regime propaganda is very hard. An Internet blackout by the Iranian government has lasted more than a month. The information that we see coming out of Iran is either state sanctioned or from people going to the border with Iraq to get cell phone to signal, or from people using

satellite internet devices like Starling's. Iran has been actively hunting people using starlings and further militarizing the Kurdistan region near the Iraqi border where people might get cell phone signal. Zenni Arbazizi and siavan Amini, a Kurdish couple, were arrested on the seventh of March this year and they have been detained ever since for the crime of using a starling. This repressive capability is not unusual or unique ter Iranian Kurdistan.

I think we need to understand the structure of the Iranian state to understand why it will be very hard for the United States to achieve regime change simply with an air campaign. Iran has a conventional army known as the Arteesh. It also has the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, better known by the initials IRGC, which has a specific remit of protecting the Islamic Republic. Within the IRGC, people

may have heard of the Kutz Force. The Kutzforce sort of acts like around CIA and green Berets combined by assisting other actors, mainly nonstate actors in the region like Husbola for example. Then there's also the Busiege, which is an element of the IGC but is a paramilitary auxiliary force with as many as half a million members available for immediate call up and many more in reserve. The busiege are in theory directly loyal to the Supreme Leader,

and they have participated in the significant oppression of the population. Combined, these forces represent a massive apparatus for state violence that is dispersed among the civilian population. Recent reports say they

are even garrising schools and other civilian buildings. While the United States may, for example, have destroyed Iran's conventional navy its big gray boats with the Iranian flag on them, it has not and cannot destroy all the small civilian craft that these groups could easily use to harass shipping or even plant sea mines, nor can destroy the men any one way surface drone to Iran has along its coastline. If you're not familiar with these, think of a remote

control boat that explodes when it hits its target. Israel has killed many ILGC figures, but many more LGC units and besiegis remain untouched. Are willing to turn their weapons on any potential uprising in the country. With this in mind, let's talk a little bit more about those peace negotiations that happened last weekend in Pakistan, and particularly let's talk

about the composition of Iran's delegation. Amongst Iran's negotiators was Mohammed Jaffiri Sahra Rud, who participate in the murder of doctor Abdul Rahman Ghassemlu during negotiations between the PDKI and Iran in nineteen eighty nine. Doctor Gasemlu had been a notable Kurdish leader for some time, was sentenced to death by the Iranian regime and then kill when he came

to the negotiating table. In a statement sent to me, the pak said the composition of the Iranian delegation, largely made up of military and security figures, clearly indicates that the primary objective was not to advance a genuine diplomatic process, but rather to manage the situation in line with strategic goals. It Ran seemed to achievely see negotiations as a way

to buy time. It's been able to dig out many of its missiles which were buried but not destroyed by its strikes, and in this pause it can shore up its pasture against domestic dissenters as well. It does not seem, in short to be acting in the way the sharkan or doctrine might suggest and hope that it would. Indeed, in recent weeks, it's been able to mobilize civilians to go two power plants in the hope that their presence

will prevent bombing of those facilities. Despite this, and despite it being a violation of various international treaties, some of which Israel is not signed up to, Israel has continued to hit power plants, oil infrastructure, and bridges despite the civilian costs. It certainly seems that after a weekend of negotiating face to face in Pakistan, the United States was not able to get what it wanted out of the negotiations.

They have chosen not to accept our terms. Vice President J. D. Vahn said, here's him talking about the negotiations at a press conference on Sunday morning local time.

that they had before they've been destroyed. But the simple question is, do we see a fundamental commitment of will for the Iranians not to develop a nuclear weapon, not just now, not just two years from now, but for the long term. We haven't seen that yet. We hope that we will.

Who knows. This was instantly in the very same truth in which Trump said, quote, A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but it probably will. This was part of a threat which he hoped to result in Iran reopening the Strait of Horn moves. Trump also posted on Easter Sunday quote open the fucking strait, you crazy bastards, or

you'll be living in hell. Obviously, this statement seems odds with any idea of liberating the Iranian people, and when it comes from the guy with the nuclear arsenal, it sounds like a threat of genocide. While Trump has not launched any nuclear weapons in Iran, this does not mean that the death toll has not been heavy. To a report by human rights organization HENGOR, at least seven six hundred and fifty people have been killed during the US

and Israeli bombing, including one thousand and thirty civilians. Iran has also continued attacking its own population. Despite the massive scale of the killing, Iran has not ceased, for example, executing political prisoners. HENGOR estimates that at least one hundred and sixty political prisoners have been killed in the first quarter of this year. United States troops have been killed as well, thirteen of them according to the Military Times. Hundreds more

have been wounded. Survivors of one deadly drone attack on a US facility in Q eight have disputed official accounts of the attack, saying their facility did have vertical blast barriers but no overhead protection against the kind of drones that killed six of their colleagues, and the kind of drones they could reasonably expect to be attacked by, given that Iran has been using these very same drones for a long time in Syria and other parts of the

Middle East. To quote CBS who interviewed one of them on condition of anonymity, quote, painting a picture that one squeaks through is a falsehood. I want people to know the unit. And then there's ellipses here where they've removed part of the quotation was unrepaired to provide any defense for itself. It was not a fortified position. So where

are we now? While the US government continues to edit supercuts of bombs hitting buildings and vehicles to music ladies does not have permission to use, families in the United States in Iran are both burying their loved ones. Despite the ceasefire the US in Iran are theoretically held to. There has been no cease fire for the Kurds who are still being bombed, no ceasefire for Lebanon, whereas where

it's still carrying out a massive bombing campaign. And on day two of the USA's blockade of Iranian ports, traffic through the Strait of Hormos remains in the single digit numbers of ships. We have not achieved, and it seems that we likely will not achieve liberation for the people of Iran. In fact, it may be the case that the regime moves closer to the eye GC becomes more hardline, more repressive, more violent. Just like in Caracas, the only

thing the US seems interested in liberating is oil. Around nuclear threat remains like Schrodinga's cat I, once terrible and non existent, destroyed last year in the justification for thousands of deaths this year, as always, our solidarity should be with people and not with states. We can perfectly coherently hold that the people of Rowan do not deserve to be killed by the US or their own government, and that what we want for them should be what we

want for ourselves, peace, freedom, and a beautiful life. It could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media.