Operation 1027 and the Mandalay PDF

It will mean that it's no exaggeration to say that people's lives will be at risk, and that the important mutual aid work that's already been done will only become more important as we get rain, we get snow, and we get cold temperatures, and people continue to be detained without shelter, food, water, or adequate clothing. If you would like to support those efforts, you can find the way

to do so at link tree slash Border Kindness. There's a dot before the ee, so it's l I n k t E R dot e E slash Border Kindness. I'll suppose a link on my Twitter if you'd like to find it there. Thank you. In the week since the end of October, the conflict landscape in Miamma has significantly changed. The Hunter and its alignment issues have taken unprecedented losses in the PDF, as well as several ethnic revolutionary organizations have swept across the country, seizing bases, weapons, tanks,

and even towns and cities. As the offensive was ongoing, I spoke to Sire montine A, leader in the madelid PDF, and Billy Ford of the United States Institute for Peace. What follows is my conversation with Billy and some insights on a situation on the ground with the madel Ai PDF. You'll hear more from Sire Montiney in another episode that we're working on, but I wanted you to hear his

personal on the ground perspective now as well. First, I let nine nine, the translator from mandele A PDF, introduce our guest.

You can, I wouldn't characterize it as a stalemate as many have, but there's there's essentially been, you know, small pockets of progress where the resistance is capturing territory, but all almost exclusively rural areas of the country. And then things changed radically on October twenty seventh, when whereas before the twenty seventh you had a range of armed stakeholders involved in the conflicts, some under the deposed National Unity government, as well as what's called the K three C which

is four of the biggest ethnic army organizations. But a lot a lot of the reason why we hadn't seen the level change in the military balance of power was because of the absence of some of the biggest and most powerful armed organizations that had more or less state on the sidelines. I mean they were arming and training resistance forces that were engaged in active combat, but they hadn't themselves in a meaningful way. But on the twenty

seventh that totally changed. This alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance that involves three of the biggest armed organizations initiated coordinated attacks in Northern Shan State on the border with China and have since the twenty seventh. We're talking to you on the tenth here of November, one hundred and fifty posts have been taken. Seven towns are now under full resistance control, seven others by my counter under partial resistance control.

And the operation in Northern Shan State on the border has effectively spurred resistance operations in other parts of the country, and so now you essentially have operations in all corners of the country. I mean, you've seen PDFs taking towns in sagaiin along the Indian border. You've seen the can you taking important towns on the logistics corridor on the Thai border. Karenni groups have moved into Meyse on the

Thaie border with Kareni State. The Chin National Front has initiated attacks in Balatwa and Southern Chin State near the Bangladesh India border. Yeah, so it's really just the trajectory of conflict has gone from an incremental trajectory where it's like this is a slow burn that could last a long time to a we need to start thinking about

potentially day after. I mean, nothing is a given, and the Minama military has been resils in the past, but it does feel like this is a historic moment in a lot of ways, and the military is weakened in a way that we've really never seen in the history of the country.

context or something like that. So we organize well that we won't become a blood dirsty organization, but just to fight for the military pool. And one more thing is we are following the two CEOC, which is a code of conduct and then chain of commands before we bomb up us.

In this case, the Kachin Independence Army helped for the emergence of the Arakan Army, which has really grown in the past ten years into one of the strongest armed

stakeholders in the country. Before the coup under the On Sansuchil National League for Democracy government they were in intense fighting with the MR military and on Sansuchi strongly supported the m R military's operations against the AA, and that kind of built some bad blood, as you might be might imagine, between the AA and the National League for Democracy, and that bad blood has made it difficult to build alliance across ethnic lines and with those resistance organizationations that

involve NLD folks. But the key point here is that the AA is operating in two places, were Kind State and in Northern Shan State on the and Kachin State also actually it's a gay now but and they're an extremely powerful armed organization, highly disciplined, highly effective, well armed. The second group is the Ta'ang National Liberation Army. This is a an ethnic based army in northern Shan State

that also is a relatively a newer armed organization. They it's it's a pretty complex military environment in Northern Shan State because the t n l A are often in tension with other Shan ethnic groups that are in Shan State, including the r c s S or the Shan State Army South, which is competing for control in other parts of Shan State. We've also seen some tension between the t n l A and the s s p P, which is another Northern Shan army that's closely aligned with

the wah and Chinese. So that's a that's a pretty complex array of relationships there. But the t NLA is also an increasingly powerful armed organization one that administer Administer's territory and has also been locked in conflict with the MEMORY military for some time. The last group is the m n d a A the MEMR National Democratic Alliance Army UH. This is a Ko Kong ethnic based armed organization that for a long time controlled territory along the

China border. In two thousand and nine, men Online who is now the commander in chief and the head of the SAC. He essentially was leading commands in north in the northeast and led operations to push the m n d a A out of that territory and replace it with a border guard force of another ethnic Ko Kong ethnic army. And we can get back to that. But that ethnic army became or is a criminal enterprise that's now operating massive scam and human trafficking operations with the

support of the MR military. They're commissioned under the MEMR military, but I think a key point here is that there's it's very personal with the m n d a A and this Border Guard Force and and Men Online, and so this is really the m n d a A is an organization that has been pushing for a very long time to retake this territory and particularly this city of Lauchai. And so that that that three constitutes the

Brotherhood Alliance. There's other stakeholders in this region, including the United Waw State Army, which is the largest armed organization in Myanmar, or non state armed organization as well, which is very closely tied with the Chinese. I mean they use Chinese currency, they speak Chinese, they fully administer their

territory and autonomously. And then the other organizations that are relevant here is the National Democratic Alliance Army and d a A, which is essentially you can think of it as a closely tied with the law and the Chinese. And then the Kachin Independence Army, which is a Kachin ethnic based armed organization very much founded as a social services I mean it's it's kind of got a different identity from some of these other groups. It's very much

like a revolutionary organization with political intentions. Uh, there's kind of Christian beliefs that are embedded within the organization. So yeah, I want to say it's a highly complex actors with different intentions and motivations, but in this particular case, they came together to at least the Brotherhood Alliance came together to launch this this coordinated attack.

learn to fight. Before the revolution, he said he had no experience and he didn't even play fighting video games. I asked him how it felt to be joining a group he'd been raised to hate and how he got there.

the schools or hospitals or the civilians. And then after that we start using the handmade weapons like just like Molotov. We didn't use any handguns at the time, but after that we trained UH and we contact with the atn l E. We have we now have the automatic rifles and then others UH missiles or something like that.

mountains it's very cold in here. So we still having problems about the weather problems, but now we are getting used to it.

some which are slightly more independent. But the this is an inter ethnic collaboration that's that's very novel and demonstrates a shift and inter ethnic and intercommunal dynamics in the country that are is very positive in a lot of ways.

So Yeah, the t n l A. The has been providing weapons and training for PDFs in Mandalay, the k O the k I A has been providing weapons, in training and tactical and strategic support to PDFs in Sagan and the Arakan Army has been maybe more than any group providing tactical UH support and weapons and training to PDFs and b Goo Airwadi, Maguay and now more recently in Sigai in so really the the Burman heartland of

the country. So yeah, all of these ethnic minority based armed organizations are now collaborating, sharing resources and knowledge with UH, with with Bamar ethnic PDFs. There's a so that I think the main question here is like, what does this mean for intercommunal relations? What does this mean for the future UH of you know, of the country? Is there? Does this indicate there's potential for greater national solidarity in the absence of the MEMR military, fracturing communities and so on.

But yeah, it's it's a it's a radical shift in those relationships.

has been doing at the among the general public. I mean, we've done three different studies over the past year to assess intercremual relations in the post couperiod and to kind of see how relations have shifted, because there's a really dominant narrative that MEMR is kind of irreconcilably fractured and that the communities are loyal to their ethnic identities not their national identities and so on, and frankly, all of our research has has pointed to a similar trend, which

is one, inter ethnic relations are considerably better. There's a there's greater solidarity. There's actually one of the the experimental research studies that we did found that national identity, as in being from MEMMR was more was more important to respond ince than ethnic identity, which totally cuts against narratives

about MEMMAR. And Yeah, I mean, I think there's been considerable gains and inter ethnic relations, and it's you know, it's hard to determine, you know, the causal linkages here, whether you know, the improved inter ethnic relations are spurring greater military collaboration and collaboration on humanitarian assistants and governance and so on. But it does feel like there's a major shift and social dynamics in addition to these kind

of military shifts that are taking place. I mean, I think that the research we've done has found there to be sort of extremist national perspectives still remain, but that they're the likelihood of them escalating to violence is reduced, in large part because the public's vulnerability to UH incitement or to a highly devisive political speech. Most of what came from Melmar military run troll farms is is much I mean, there's much more resilience to those that that

form of political violence. So, you know, I think there's still a lot of work obviously to do to build intercommunal cohesion and understanding, but that the likelihood you know, for example, in a post sac world that you will be you know, see mass intercommunal violence, it seems much lower than a lot of people are presuming that it would be that the that the actual horizontal relationships across

communities are not are not as bad as many presume. Actually, one of the surveys that we did found that Memar's intercommunal relations are no worse than countries with much lower levels of violence, which is kind of an indication of the fact that it's really vertical dynamics like violent political speech, highly exclusionary governance structures that are driving intercommunal violence, and so that those on that dimension at least that the

person to person intercommunal relation or relationships. I think there's a lot to be a lot of positive narratives there.

guard forces. So these are commissioned under the MEMR military, which is a very key point in most cases, and they are running scam operations at a global level that are scamming people using a scheme called pig butchering, which is long term relationship building. And then you're yeah, theft at a large scale. This is like, these are sizable losses from individuals. So last year, for example, to give you a sense of that scale, China lost twenty billion

dollars to these scam operations. Twenty billion, Yeah, you know, of states lost two billion dollars on scam operations emerging from Menmar. I mean, the scale of this is wild. I mean there's more than there's more than one hundred thousand people being held in scam zones in Meanmar from

forty six different countries. I mean, it's a it's this is a total global operation because I mean this emerged actually before COVID, I mean in sia Hanookville, Cambodia and other places where there's you know, rule of laws is dubious. They have the initiated kind of casino operations which are illegal in China and really targeting Chinese public. And during COVID, when China a lot of Chinese nationals were forced back to mainland China. These criminal enterprises were short on labor,

and so they shifted their approach. I mean they shifted to trafficking people into their zones and then operating at a global scale finding labor from around the world, you know, using not not low skilled labor. I mean this is these are high skilled kind of middle class workers seeking employment in the tech industry or some other scheme that they you know, eventually they're you know, held at gunpoint and forced to scam their co nationals. So that's a

little bit of background. So this is happening in Ko Kong along the Chinese border, also in the Wa territories and in the n d a A territories. The largest areas are actually on the Thai Burma border with the

Kren Border Guard Force and affiliated criminal organizations. So essentially, over the past year, the Chinese have have noticed not only the financial losses but the potential for social instability because as youth unemployment has grown in China, you know, these young people are seeking new employment opportunities, crossing the border and memr for high paying tech jobs and then

being held at gunpoints. So you have you know, mothers on social media saying I haven't seen my son in three weeks and you know he's being held in a scam operation. So you know this is this is dileitarious at two levels. You know, the financial scam losses and the trafficking, and it's all being run by border guard forces that are commissioned by the Melamar military. And yet you see countries around the world, including China, going to

the Malamar military and saying, please shut this down. And of course the Malmur military has no intention to shut this down because these these scam operations are financing the border guard forces that are their key weapon against the resistance. So they need the border guard forces and so they will never shut down the scam operations. And so what what ensued was essentially earlier this year, I mean, the Chinese came to the Malmour military and said, we will

support you at every level. We will prop you up, provide you weapons, to provide you assistance if you can demonstrate the capacity to govern, the capacity to provide stability on our border, the capacity to provide to allow us to pursue our economic interests. And the SAC has completely failed this test. Scam operations have exploded China's economic interests. The Chupu, especially economic zone remains in a impact assessment phase. The lepid on copper mind is non functional, the Mitzo

dam is non functional. They're just not getting out of the SAC what they wanted, and so there was a meaningful shift recently, it appears, and I think by all indicators that we can see the Chinese Greenlit Operation ten twenty seven that they at least did not stand in their way, and you'll see from the then Daa, I mean they really were the leaders of the operation that in the statements that they issued about the operation itself

and when they articulated their objectives, the first objective was to shut down scam operations. I mean you can see that this is they're speaking to a Chinese public and the government indicating that we're a responsible, good faith actor that will shut down these enterprises that are trafficking your citizens and scamming the public out of billions of dollars.

So this has become a really dominant dynamic in the relationship between the Chinese and the SAC, and it's it leads to a really weakened position for the SAC if they're not being propped up in the way that they have been for so long by by the Chinese. So we'll have to see how this kind of unfolds, but it's not looking good for the military.

And then because we, for example, we use like A K types, we have the different so it is not very possible to arm the better weapons from the the Maylie amy. We only used some of the weapons, like for the artillery or something like that, but that's only a few we got from them. What we really need is about the better artillery or S A M or something like that for the air strips. So yeah, it's not very usedful for us from the anthem ammunition we

got from the Male Army. He said that the main points in the arm revolution is it's about two cature the important points, not to catcha all the CDs or something like that, like to catchure the enemy sec quotas or the important places. We are going to need more plants, and then he say that he's unclear about that.

the resistance out of urban areas. I mean, this is the first time really that the resistance moved into urban areas and held them, including into guy and I mean Colon has been they're holding it and so I mean that seems to be an indication to me that the ESSAYCS capability is weakening. I mean, yeah, their their access to foreign currency and to purchase weapons is highly constrained now.

I mean their primary providers Russia and China, you know, ones fighting their own war and the other is kind of is a little bit more skeptical as to whether they deserve their support. I mean they just last week the US initiated new sanctions on the Meanoma oil and Gas enterprise. They provided half a billion dollars in revenue for the junta per year. Yeah, that's a major that's a major issue for them accessing US dollars, which they

need to buy weapons. I mean, the Ties can no longer pay the Memoir military and USD and the memor military doesn't want bought, so they're literally negotiating barter agreements where they you know, sell gas for material goods. But now you have the Resistance controlling you know, part of cocker Rig on the Asia Highway into Thailand. I mean, they control the borders or the starting to in a way they hadn't before, So even this sort of bartering or material trade is less viable. So yeah, I mean,

I think they're just really asset constrained. And it does I mean, just the fact that they haven't been able to retake these critical logistic ups. I mean, the border crossings that the Resistance has have controlled constitute forty percent of the of the of the overland trade between China and memor It's like, you know, it's like four billion dollars in value that's being you know, that tax loss for the SAC it's considerable. It's considerable losses there as well.

And how long they can really hold out and maintain their air assets is really questionable, particularly since they've had to massively diversify their air asset purchase, which really makes it more complex to service points. And so yeah, I mean, I think I'm not sure that the Resistance has much more capacity in service to air or air defense, but it does seem like the SACS capacity to inflict atrocities in this way has also been constrained.

it's just moving in and capturing military posts. And as one person resistance fighter indicated, essentially you fire your gun in the air and they lay down their weapons, which is more you know, an indication of of where the military stands and the support that these these highly isolated I mean, this is a fractured light infantry force that's dispersed at posts all over the country, and you know they're resupplying from the Northwest Command in monuoas to town

within thirty minutes drive by helicopter because they can't they can't move, so there's just not logistics support to these posts. And so yeah, you've got folks in there that just the will to fight is pretty small. Morale is shrinking from a very low base, and so I think there was the The general pattern is just resistance taking military barracks and posts rather than having to go house to house.

I mean there's villages in towns where there's these groups called pew Sawtee that are like military aligned militias, but yeah, that's not really you know, a nationwide fighting force, and it's in most cases it really is just the resistance capturing posts and pushing out a military personnel. And I mean there was a they're also using drones to a

high degree of effectiveness. They recently killed a colonel who was on he was about to be become a brigadier general, the highest ranking person who have been killed in battle from the Memora military through a drone strike in northern Shun State, I believe for kit Chen and I think that, yeah, the resistance drone capabilities have also increased considerably. And this is also an area where you see NUG collaborating a

lot with the arrows. So yeah, it's it's it's just yeah, it's a barracks, you know, menmoial military personnel and they just in many cases just lay down their arms because it's just morale so low, and the probability of them to be able to fend off indefinitely is when they have the public against them and a resistance movement against them. It's just really a challenge ex set of conditions for them.

support for the revolutionary people of Myanmar, something will cover in greater detail on another episode, but it's yet another illustration of how the revolutionary people of Myanmar have continued to defy everyone's expectations about how and where they will go next, and how they've managed to dream up a vision for a more equal and just future even as they face the injustice and inequality of fighting a war the world doesn't seem to care about without a single

dollar of international military little support, and then strongly worded letters from the UN At sporadic intervals. As we come to the end of the episode, I asked Sam Montine if he had anything else he would like to share with our listeners.

other countries. We will always be trying for that. If you have any chance to speak out in a seminar or the workshops or any other things or any meetings, he wants you to tell the news about killings each other of our revolution forces is just a propagunnas of sac. If there is no more Sac, there would be no issues like the anymore. Most of some issues are just because of Sac and then they spread in some rumors

about that and then take news. You know, if you guys can come and visit us, and then you can see how we treat people, and then how we respect the civilians, and then how we follow a lot of context in person.

doesn't mean they don't need help. They do desperately, and I hope that as people continue to advocate to civilians in Gaza, they can include civilians and revolutionaries from Meandmark in their demands going forward, It could happen here as a production of cool Zone Media.