Also media.
Hi everyone, it's me James, just introducing this podcast. I'm recording this the day after we recorded the episode to today's Thursday, the twenty first of March. I wanted to just update a couple of things and correct a couple of things, so I've just listened through the episodes.
I'm going to do that now.
Firstly, I think I said Igler a couple of times when I meant strella. It's the Strella portable surface to our missiles have been refitted with new batteries in the Syrian Civil Wars specifically, and I've included a link to a document about that in the show notes. So apologies for getting those two things confused. They're both I guess former Soviet service to our missile systems. The other things I wanted to mention are that a few like throughout
this episode, we've used manpads, right. That's kind of the colloquial term or the official term really for person portable anti aircraft systems, like it obviously doesn't mean that you have to be a man to use one, certainly like the fact that the hPG are using them and that the Kurdish Freedom Movement are using them, obviously women can use them, non binary folks can use them, to everyone
can use them. And finally, I just wanted to mention that there have been some suggestions that the thing that was used to shoot down the bay Ragtars was like loitering munition, which is something that is often called a suicide drone. In this case, it's not a loitering munition that impacts something on the ground, but impact something on
the air. There's an Iranian system that does that, but apparently it's possible to replicate that with a large number of off the shelf or sort of commercially available pieces.
So maybe that's what's going on.
This episode was a little bit speculative, and we still don't have lots of hard answers, but we hope you'll enjoy it because it represents a change in a relationship between the state and people who are not the state, and that's why it's important.
Okay, hope you enjoy.
Hello, podcast fans, Welcome back to the podcast. I'm joined today by my friend Mia Himea. Hello, and we are talking about, of course, surface to wear missiles, a topic that I'm sure is on the top of mind for all of you as you drive to work this morning. Where are we talking about surface to air missiles today? Well? Today is it is Wednesday, the twentieth of March, and today I'm sure maybe some of you would have seen some of the most of you probably will not as you go about your daily lives.
That the k c K.
The k c K is the group, the Kurdistan Communities Union, the joint group between the various groups in the different parts of Kurdistan. Right, So you have the PKK, You have they in Syria, p KK in Turkey, right, the p JACK in Iran. In the KK like brings all these groups together?
Do they?
Is there a name?
Do they?
Is there like an Iraqi branch? That's the one that I don't know. You have the yevishe the Azdi group? Right, yeah, Kurdish one.
I think everyone I will reconsider my statement. The people who I have become aware of who are in Iraq, who are who I know about journalistically, are Ksek people. Okay, little little bit of smoke and mirrors feed there, but yeah, the people, the people who who I know who are in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region are Ksek. So I think that I think most of the sort of people within the Greater like Kurdish Freedom Movement.
The Apoche people are KCK within Iraq.
It is in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, so like Iraqi in a technical sense, but only only really in a technical sense, Like when you go to the Kurdistan Autonomous Region, you don't even do Iraqi immigration. You do Kurdistyan immigration, which is nice because it's a lot easier. I was there in October of twenty twenty three, and since February of twenty twenty three, the KCK have an out. They have shut down thirteen Turkish unmanned aerial vehicles, right, which
what you and I would call drones. And we're not talking about drones like your friend has a drone and they use it to film you at the beach drones. We're talking about like bairaktar drones, which are it's an aircraft, right, Like if you saw one, you would be like, oh, there goes a plane.
Yeah, it's like it's it's like the Turkish version of the Predator drones and.
The US users, Yeah, yeah, it's it's yeah, it's a very similar thing. It's a very popular drone system actually, right, they've sold bairaktars to. I think dozens of countries like like they're I mean most all over, yeah, thirty one countries that they've exported the bairaktar to, so they're very widely used. They're kind of the the sort of drone of choice for people who are just like buying on
the open market. Right. Karta uses them, Ukraine uses them a lot, but even countries like I'm looking here Bikina Faso has has biraugtars So what's notable about this is they've also shot down a Kinchi's a kinchiese are like the newer bairakta variant that they make a slightly different noise. I've spent some time in places that are being attacked by drones over the last year, and it's it's.
A highly unpleasant experience.
But people who are used to this, which I am, I guess thankfully not, will tell you that they can tell the difference the noise at least these drones to make. But there was a kinchi, for instance, I believe it was in a kinchi that did some of the attacks that I was unfortunate enough to be nearby when I was in ro In October. So what's notable about this is like the k c K obviously, like they're a non state actor, right because there is not a Kurdish state.
There is a Kurdish nation, one might argue, but it's split between four states Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey, and so them being able to shoot down droned it's quite remind uckable.
Yeah, no, one's none of the non state actors really in the last like twenty years have been able to do this. Like like everyone talks about how advanced like isis's capabilities were for a non state actor, and they were, but they couldn't do it, Like it's wild, No, like who.
These have shut down some reaper drones.
Yeah, but but they're but they're a state, Like that's the thing, Like they'd have huge swaths of the regular you many military are just like.
Yeah, and then they're supplied by other state actors, right, like very clearly as it's a little different. What, Yeah, it's this is relatively remarkable, right that they've been able to shoot down like and not just it's not just like oh we got lucky, we got we got lucky and dropped a single drone. ISIS had if I remember correctly, Isis had some Igla manpads, like the old Russian man pads. The thing with those and we're going to talk about
this a little bit later. They they have like a battery and that battery will run out over a certain or they're sold that. Some of them are just being sold on the black market without batteries. From what I've seen, some folks in that we've seen in the civil war in Syria have worked out how to somehow make that battery work with or make another battery, or make another
electronic system for them. They don't have like a lockout, right, they don't have a like we've detected, you know, like your iPhone will sometimes get mad if you're using a third party charger.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, right.
So Tim Apples was not involved in the design of the NK thelia Igler more so pity and so he wasn't able to engineer it a third party luckout. But those have been repurposed. But yeah, we did not see the Islamic state of Irak and El Sham dropping US drones.
In fact, the reason like the thing that are allowed, there are two things that allowed the defeat of the so called Islamic state rate one, the heroism of the people who fought against them, be they like I Rocky Kurdish, you know, a lot of people for the against have fifteen thousand kurt died fighting isis But also the fact that the US had complete air dominance and could just fucking obliterate things from the sky whenever it wanted to.
It did, it did a lot of It did a lot of obliterating things from the sky, right, And so the ability to shoot down drones is something that has been very hard for non state actors. And it's not like it's not like the k c K has a state sponsor, right yeah.
Yeah. Also so like like for example, like hesbal Lah has shot down to although these weren't actually they shut down to Hermes like it is really hermis drones. So though those are just sort of those are surveillance things. But the thing is like Hezbola did this by getting surface there missles, like getting surface their rockets from Iran.
Yeah sure, yeah, that's right.
That's like, you know, the way that you can do this is if either like Iran, the US, I guess technically China and or and or Russia like hand you them but if none of those four countries are willing to play ball or I mean I guessically the UK, yes, or like France could send you one, but like it's it's it's really really like I don't. I don't think any non state actor who wasn't being just directly armed by one of those states has pulled it off.
No. The other non state actor who I've seen with manpads very recently are the Koren, the current national liberal k in l A. The k and LA have been putting out these pictures. This is in me and mar Yes, this is in Mema. So for folks who haven't listened to our previous Meama episodes, go and listen to them. But yeah, there's some of the work I'm proud of. But these k and LA guys have these photos have come out that then they're not not post photos, right.
They they very clearly they wanted these photos to come out and it shows them with these manpad system. I'm actually not sure if it's a strella or a Chinese I think it's called the eighth N five the Chinese. It's essentially the same thing, but they have the grip stock for them, but they don't have the coolant ball and the battery at the front, so like that they're what they have is a fancy looking doesn't appear to my eyes to be like fully functional, like in terms
of tracking and shooting down an aeroplane. Although I have seen footage from friends of Hunter aircraft deploying like flares over a current state and then like turning around and leaving, So perhaps there's something I'm missing here, Like, it's entirely possible that when they decided for these photos come out,
they they're in a certain fashion. And like those guys who engineered and tire arms industry of their own using Reddit and Ali express, like I, if anybody can make something work, they can make something work.
I have great faith in their ingenuity.
And as I said, like it's people in Syria have previously made systems like this work. They're not they don't have that lockout, so it's quite possible that they did. But I've not seen a video of anyone in Mianmar shooting down and any kind of aircraft yet. Right the Russian aircraft that they have shot down aircraft allegedly someone shot one down with with a like a grenade launcher, a single shot grenade launcher solid video, Yeah, which one
of the most chadly things anyone's ever done. It's it's some like modern warfare or whatever whatever. The computer game is called Battlefield, that's what it's called. Yeah, talking of talking of Chadley and exciting stuff. This might be an advert for like being a prison guard or something exciting that we have to to introduce. Now, okay, don't don't be a prison guard?
All right?
Back, have you found gain from employment elsewhere outside of
the cast real system? And we're talking about surface to our missiles, particularly these thirteen surface to our missile of thirteen drones that the casey K have shut down, right, One thing I thought that was noticeable is that they did say missiles they are people were able to pride the missile system necessary that So like there's a theory that I've seen that that they were able to crash a drone of their own into into a bayractar like
a kind of like I guess, like a suicide. I don't like the word suicide drone because it's not the drone that's dying. Like normally when people talk about suicide drones, they're killing people.
Yeah, but like a ramming drone. Yeah yeah, yeah, like a like a it's like robot Wars. But they said missile on their press.
Really, so you know, if we take that on the if we take that on the face of it, that that suggests that they shut them down. Certainly this like there is good video evidence of the mirror and I just reviewed the video. Incredible soundtrack. We'll link to it in the We'll link to it in the show notes. In the videos, you very clearly see Oh it's a drone. Oh it's a huge explosion that gravity is now having its effect on this drone, like it is plummeting to earth.
Yeah, like it's it's definitely not a like we've fired a machine gun in the air and it hit it somehow or something like. It's right, it got hit quite explosive. Yeah, yeah, that's remarkable.
Yeah.
One of the there was a shooting down of an aircraft in them. It wasn't one of them makes I forgot it might have been. It was a two seater training plate. I can't remember quite what it was, but that was shot down supposedly by small arms fire or maybe like a generally the like the air defense of most non state arm groups has been dushcuts right, like a it's a thing that you've seen in the back of a pickup truck going like bang ban bang, with
a big sort of spade grip. It's a classic technical gun. But this isn't that, Like, this is something very different, something they're they're exploding when these drones get hit, they're exploding. And they've all been in I think, oh yeah, all of them are in areas of the what we call the Kurdistan Autonomous Region. A bit of rock, right, So some of them are in zap which is near to Hok but towards north of there. Some of them in the Kandil Mountains, which is part of the Zagros Mountain Range.
Again it's it's in the north of that Kurdistan Autonomous Region, and I think some of them are in it. I think it's Gabay, it's pronounced, but they're not in like I think obviously, when a lot of people think about the Kurdistan Freedom Movement, they think about Rajava. This isn't there. The US did shoot down a by rakta or in a Kinchi over Rajava while I was there, but they only shot it down because it flew over their base.
They continued to let the bay Raktars bomb civilian infrastructure all over the A and E S. So these these are not there, these are so perhaps whatever they're using so interesting, right, Like it's maybe it's not something they can take there, or maybe it's not you know, like it's not they're not able to get it out of the mountains.
It's too much of a risk.
No, it's it's interesting, I mean for a number of reasons. Well, yeah, partially that they're not using it in serior. Partially they're also they don't seem to be using them in Turkey either.
No, it's interesting when they take off, it's not that like subtle, right, it's a big aircraft, so they'll get some warning when they take off and that would allow them, I guess, to prepare their munitions. But yeah, they don't seem to be using it. They seem to be using it in like this this area. Whether they're very strong, right, whether these mountains are extremely fortified, they've been fighting Turkey.
There are a lot in recent days and weeks. You can always i mean, obviously you're going to see some somewhat traumatic combat footage, but Garrilla TV always has like updates on these things. So that's the sort of thing that you you know, like to keep up to date with. But yeah, they're not using them there, they're not using them.
They're they're very close to Turkey, right, but yeah, not not quite in and Turkey soldiers do occupy some areas inside the Iraqi curts Down Autonomous Region, so like they it's kind of all and Turkey seems to be kind of trying to ramp up its operations against the Courts Down Freedom movement inside the Curtis Donal Autonomous Region, but this is a significant impediment to that.
Right.
It's also very interesting that like we have not heard shit about this from Turkey.
No, Yeah, well, and I think I think part of this is you know, like I think it's something that as an indication of how serious this is, because I mean, this has been you know, the law of the twenty first century is that if you're a state actor, you have unlimited air superiority over any non state group you're bombing, and you can, you know, especially especially if you're like the US, you can send bombers or drones into like
any country you want and you can bomb them. Yeah, and that has been true, and this has been the basis of US military power. It's also been the basis of a lot of like, you know, the Turkey obviously doesn't have the same air doctrine as the US does, but like that's been the basis of a lot of Turkish operations that they like, they're the people who have airpower on because they have airpower, because they have drones, because you can't shoot back at them, they can do whatever the fuck they want.
Yeah, Like I've been in the situation where you are completely powerless and very afraid because at some point something could fall out the night sky and kill you and there's fuck all you can do about it. And yeah, yeah, that has been the way of the world, like you say, for this entire century. Right, it's what we've seen. I mean, meanma, the pro democracy forces are gaining ground every day. They're
doing an incredible job. But like I've also talked to people whose whole unit has been wiped out and they've hidden under the dead bodies of their friends because as a plane or a helicopter circling around, and it's the one area where they've really struggled to defend themselves, right, And it's I'm writing a book about anarchist at War. Eventually I will publish that book. But this is the
thing that defines like the benit like the state. Even when the state like loses its monopoly on legitimate violence, it still has monopoly on airborne violence. And the questioning that monopoly, like is is incredibly dangerous for the state's ability to for the state, I guess in general, like for its continued ability to crush movements, be they liberatory or be they otherwise.
Right, we can know, I mean, this is something I think is really interesting. This is something that's been a fear of I mean everyone from like Western intelligence people through like I mean you can see people in like Hollywood freaking out about this, Like like rebel group gets access to a manpad is like one of the most common like spy show plots. Yeah, and yeah, it's like it's something that you know, you can listen to, like
the US military talking about this. Is this is something that they're really concerned about.
Yeah, they won't sub like it's their where it's where they draw the line with the groups who are quote unquote allies, right, who'll be quote Like the US will tell you that the SDF for their allies in the fight against ISIS. But they're willing to let their allies die rather than give them manpads. Right, Like, I've seen this.
I have.
I've seen the funerals, you know, because they and the US. But I've also driven right past the fucking US base and I know that there are plenty of malny of plenty of anti aircraft systems there because they shut down a Turkish drone.
While I was there.
But they're not willing to give them to even the people who they'll fight side by side with because their fear of having manpads get into what they would maybe term the wrong hands is is. Yeah, it's like the the one area where they have I guess, complete domination.
Right.
They've given them to Ukraine, of course, but despite like repeated allegations, there is no evidence that Ukraine has sold surface to wear systems anywhere, and they obviously weren't give them to me Anmar, right, So it's yeah, if this is what it appears to be, then it's a really massive change. Talking of a massive change, you could you know, you can make a massive change to your financial situation by purchasing gold.
We're back, Yeah, I.
Think something that's really interesting about the way that the sort of man pad getting to know and say to actors.
Has talked about is that.
Usually the way that it's like usually the US line on it is like we cant like we can't let anyone get these us They're gonna use it to shoot down civilian airliners. Yes, yeah, And now, to be fair, people do accidentally shoot down like militaries accidentally shoot down civilian airliners all the time. Yeah, Like that's a very
common thing. But I think I think that's that's a smoke screed, right, because like even like the actual thing that if you're if you're a militant group, usually the thing that you want to be doing if you have one of these weapons is shooting down the things that the people who are bombing you. Yeah, And I think there's a really interesting sort of like psychological thing going
on here. This is this is the sort of propaganda thing that that you know, to to get to get like you random person to be terrified of, Like you know, the Kurds having surface to air missiles, is they used like they use people's like fear of getting blown up on an airplane. It's like no, no, like click at like you know, evidence suggests that what is actually what actually happens that these is that they shoot down drones.
Yeah, yes, exactly right, and not like the other thing, which is somewhat remarkable. It's it would be one thing to have got your hands on one or two, but to have been to have shut down in a one year pit well just over one year from February thirteenth, twenty twenty three until marks the first, twenty twenty four, they have shot down fifteen UAVs like that. That's a that's a decent number of manpads or maybe not manpads. That's the other thing we kind of didn't mention, right,
Like bait raptas can fly very high. We were just sort of checking this out before the show, and I think they can fly around seven thousand meters, which when in theory put about side feet twenty five thousand feet, yeah, which is about twice the like the the height previous generation man pads like things like stingers and iglers can can operate at I'm not sure of the the what the for for an igler reach targets and macxum altitude of two thy five hundred meters.
So yeah, that's a little under.
As high as these as these like attack drones can fly, maybe they have to come lower to like launch their munitions, or maybe they come lower to to search for people and presumably looking for The Kurdistan Freedom Movement has guerrillas all over these mountains right here, extremely well camouflaged and extremely adept at avoiding drone attacks because that is what they have been doing for for a long time.
So maybe that's how.
But also maybe maybe there's something that we're not aware of or some kind of Maybe it's not a man portable system at all. Maybe it's something that is like fixed in place well, and that and that comes.
I think one of the one of the really interesting questions to you, which is how on earth did they get these? Yeah, whatever whatever system you're using, you know normally like the only way, like you know, like has blah or the whoies get them from Iran? Right, But the Radians are absolutely like, under no circumstances are they going to I mean maybe if Turkey declared war on Iran, there's like a five percent chance maybe in like their darkest hour, they might try this, Like there's no way.
Yeah, Like Iraq and Iran have repeatedly attempted to mobilize the Kurds against each other, right, but yeah, I think that they would draw the line at handing over manpads and.
Yeah, and they're definitely not getting them from the US.
No, then they're using them in areas where they're with the US, and the US has been very clears.
Like like you know, it's it's it's definitely not I don't think it's any other Western country either, Like, yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Like I mean, maybe like based Sweden smuggling pads in or something, but I really doubt it, which leaves it really like up in the air. I mean, like maybe Russia maybe somehow, I don't know. It's it's it's all very weird.
Yeah, And I mean like in recent months, the A Side regime, which is backed by Russia, has been an open conflict with the SDF, So I think it it's it's very unlikely, like the Asad regime has been fighting with and killing it and dying with ye again in Syria, so it seems very unlikely. Yeah, it's very That's what's very strange, Like the there seems to be a couple of different groups of people, right, like the Kuren have popped up with these previous generations Igla.
Kind of manpads.
The Kitchin have shot down a lot of planes recently, and it's not entirely clear how so the Kitchen or another ethnic group in Myanmar a somewhat closer ties to the pr C. The United ware State Army have manpads. They are the sort of closest tied to the PRC of the e r os in Myanma. I'm using a lot of acronyms here on it.
Yeah, this is just the problem we're talking about, Curtis Group's not I'm talking about, Yes, like the two great acronym like wars.
Don't be overlooking the Spanish Civil War, the alphabet soup of conflicts. Yeah, this is this is a life I've chosen for myself. So, yeah, the ethnic revolutionary organizations in
Mielma the closest to China. It's the United ware State Army who have been at the fringes of the conflict, but it is certainly not fully committed to fighting against the Hunter in the same way that the Karen, the Kachin, the Arakan Army, the PDF for the other groups that form the resistance in Burma or Memma are but there have definitely been more planes shot down in Memma this year than in the last few years, So there's perhaps there's some kind of source in the world for these
service to msas. There will come a point in the human future, right when one of these is either reverse engineered or someone just really, if someone had said to you ten years ago that, like several people online, some of whom I've spoken to, some of whom our friend j Camera had spoken to, would be able to construct a gun that you could print from your computer, like you'd you'd have said, you're barking right like, and at some point in the human future someone will work out
how to use things they already have to make something that can shoot down aircraft. But yeah, it's baffling like that. There seems to be no obvious answers to where what the source of these the The last thing I will say is that there was a yakuzer boss. Yeah, yeah, this guy legend. It's just like he like, this man's
my man's done nothing wrong. He was convicted of selling trying to sell man pared to the Korene and I think to the Kachin, I can't remember if one of them with the koren Uh and he was trying to do so very funny. He was calling them cake and ice cream and incredibly incredibly good cipher. It's a hell of a it's a banger of an indictment. Everyone should
read it to Keshi. I forget what his last name was, but he he was trying to sell man pads and what he was actually doing was being monitored by the DEA. But the man pads that he thought that he had access to were fictional, like it was. It was it was the FEDS who had conned him into thinking they had man pads. They did have some eighty fours. He met them in the Netherlands. Took an incredible selfie with a light anti tank weapon and you can look it up.
Leather jacket, like I think he's got blue aviators on, Like my man's been arrested for having incredible drip and it's very sad. But yeah, the man pads he thought he was selling were fictional. But the fact that people were like, yeah, this seems reasonable like that people were like, okay, we're prepared to enter this deal with you. They weren't like, what are you on about suggests that maybe these things are entering the market. People will always say that they
came from Afghanistan, like after the US left. But I don't think the Taliban would have any reason to sell them. They're getting bombed by Pakistan right now. Like what Yeah, yeah, it doesn't seem it doesn't make sense to me that that they would sell them. Yeah, and I one thing I should also mention is like every single time there is a war anywhere in the world, there are a
trillion rumors that come out. They're like, oh, there's like this guy is selling like ex weapons or whatever, and it's like ninety nine percent of them are false.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, you hear this all the time and it's never true. Yes, So that makes it really hard to sort out like where these things are coming from. Yeah, exactly. A friend of the podcast, Victor Boot is he's free again.
He's back maybe maybe maybe he's gotten back on Maybe the god of war is back.
Baby.
It would be incredible, there would be an incredible narrative art for Victor Boot. But like as we said in that episode, right, like it's very easy to point to Victor Boot as being this evil guy, but in fact, like we've sold a shit ton of weapons to people who turn out to be pretty pretty uncivil as the United States, a lot more people working all the other places that have offices in San Diego made a lot
more money than he did selling weapons to people. So you know, we ought to be you know, popcorn and the cut back a bit there, but clearly something is up with surface to our missiles. I hope this makes your spring Bak flights more exciting.
It just gives it a little edge as you take off.
Don't fly in Turkey, Yeah, yeah, that's the our tip is to to not fly from not land. I guess in I mean, like we said, the KSEK and go to shoot down your civilian plane, then they're nice people. I'll just say the KSEK and my experience have been very nice, very forthcoming, extremely communicative and responsive to press requests, which much more so than a lot a lot of other state actors. And I don't think you have any
worries abut them shooting down your aircraft. But it's an interesting development that like yeah, will fundamentally challenge the way that states are able to squash non state arm groups going forward.
Yeah, and if we if we figure out where they got them from and that becomes public. Well you'll you'll see the next episode called We found Out where the mad Pads are from.
Yeah, I think in unlikelihood to no one's interested to know to like announce where these are from. And I don't think you know the ones in in Meanmar. It's not inconceivable that they came either directly or indirectly from China. Yeah,
certainly that that would be the most feasible. But seeing them elsewhere it's fascinating, Like it's you know, if somebody has like either reverse engineered these are there's a large NAWORITHM available on the black market, like that would be a sea change in the way conflict happened, right, Like, you know, it's rare. Right now, it's able to bomb Palestine with complete impunity. If non state arm groups had access to manpads there that that maybe wouldn't be the case.
But yeah, it's a change. It's a change in the way the world goes to war. I think it's always interesting. It's always interesting, Like for a podcast that was built on speculative fiction about future collapses, like this certainly is something that challenges some monopoly of the state. So yeah, it's something to keep an eye on. I will attach in the notes the Gorilla TV video of the Beiractars being shut down. Please enjoyed the soundtrack, Yeah, it's banger.
And we'll also include some links to those videos of the Kurne National Liberation Army with their man pads. If you're a manpads understander, you know you know where to find me. It's all over the internet.
Yeah. With that, I will leave you have a great weekend. Don't fly your cessnas.
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