Caribbean Roundtable

been struck. The US it's bringing its war on terrorism logic to the Western Hemisphere rate, it's claiming that it's fighting narco terrorism, and it's claiming that these boats are for the most part carrying Venezuelan nationals coming out of Venezuela. We've heard from Colombia that one Colombian national has been killed. The two people who had detained were Ecuadorian and Colombian to Trinidadian or Trinidad and Tobago nationals have been killed

as well. And this has sparked something of a and what it was a war of words, now it seems to be a war of more than that, tariffs and sanctions and if Columbia has withdrawn their diplomat from DC as of today or yesterday, so it sparks significant political turmoil in the Western hemisphere. I think we have a really good panel to talk about that. So to begin with,

I guess we should start Michael. Can you explain their accusation here right is that these people are members of trend, Deer Ragua or potentially some other cartels that the term administration likes to talk about. We've talked about the prevalence of those groups, but can you explain very briefly what they are, and I suppose the function that they have in Venezuela or what they're doing there versus what's been claimed that they're doing.

across borders. But they're not a cartel in the way that we traditionally think about cartels like the Sinalo cartel or some of the Columbian cartels that are engaged in international cocaine trafficking, and so it's highly unlikely that if the Trump administration is striking boats that they claim to be vessels transporting cocaine or vensional, which is not made in Venezuela. It's primarily made in Mexico using precursors from China,

and increasingly it's actually in the United States. Even that it's a tilt synthetic drug, that's possible, and Venezuela, of course is not one of the countries where coca is grown and therefore cocaine comes from. If they are indeed striking drug boats, then they probably wouldn't be traded Aaga, and if they're striking boats with Brenda Arragua, they would be most likely striking migrant smuggling vessels, in which case the death account would likely be much higher.

has some background in opposition to organize crime and drug smuggling. Actually, right, like he's in this for a while. Can you explain a little bit of his career and then his recent stances.

government guerrilla movement called the M nineteen movement. Now, this is the movement which I don't know, maybe Western audiences are familiar with from the Netflix series Narcos, for having participated carried out the Palace of Justice siege at the Columbian Supreme Court, which was a major disaster in which the Columbian military went in guns blazing to rescue hostages, Supreme Court justices and other people just employed in the Palace of Justice, and most everyone died in a fire

as a result. Petro was not involved in that operation as far as anyone knows. He was not involved in eight violent confrontations and this organization, unlike the fark and the ln never really got on the cocaine money train and therefore didn't last as long as those other organizations did. They did demobilize, they did turn to peaceful politics, and Petro began his political career at the local level Bogota

and then eventually reached the presidency. So he is someone with a long political career and does have a constituency, does have a base, and he is the first truly left wing leader of Colombia, country that has been famously both ruled by the right and also very closely allied to the US.

when it comes to his own internal security. He did come it off as promising what he called total peace possibibal, a platform that was meant to put an end to all armed in certainties in the country by making a deal with the remaining combatant groups, namely the ELN, the dissident bar guerrillas, those who did not agree to the peace deal signed by Santos in twenty sixteen, and what's in different terms called the Klandel GORGEPO or the AGC the Guy Thomas to self defense Forces, but one of

the largest national narco paramilitary group that descends from the old AUC. And he has failed in that and talks have broken off with.

of interesting the right word. It's not a great situation, right, because Trinidadian people are being killed, at least two and the government is apparently completely unconcerned with this.

who may not know where Trinaans Bigle is. It is an independent Twin Ireland republic the Caribbean, and it's actually geographically an extension of South America. There's a gulf that separates it, but it's about eleven kilometers away from Venezuela itself and our elections. It took place this year led to the removal of the incumbent party and the return of the United National Congress, the political party led by

Camera Posa Prossessor, claiming the government in a sweep landslide. Really, but despite that landslide, it wasn't really the result of popular support for the United National Congress. It was more so the lack of support for the previous party, the People's National Movement, which lost I believe two hundred thousand or so of their usual voters just didn't show up to vote for them this election, so the opposition party

came into power. When the opposition party wasn't the opposition They in many ways appeared to just oppose for pose and sake. They were in power previously from twenty ten to twenty fifteen, but they were voted out due to, among other things corruption, and since then the party has further evolved into a sort of personality cult centered around came proser prosessor, and her politics have also evolved in that time to align further and further toward the United

States position. She's become something of a Trump Stan you know, she was kind of touring his line on a lot of issues. She supported Guido Juan Guido as the president of Venezuela and actually went so far while she was a oposition leader to call on the United States to sanction Trinan Tobago after the Vice President of Venezuela had made a visit to the country to meet with the then Prime Minister Keith Rowley. So she has made her

pro Washington stands clear for a very long time. And as she's come into power, she has divuted our alignment with our regional bloc, the Caribbean Community cara COM and their call for the Caribbean to remain a zone of peace, and emphasized her continued endorsement for the US military's deployment outside of Venezuela's territorial waters. But still very much belligerent

in her approach to this issue. You know, we have gone from a state that was respected as a non aligned entity that was able to approach various diplomatic partners from the US to China to the eute in Yale to Venezuela as well. And we've gone from that sort of diplomatic approach to a very clear pro West stance that has really alienated US from the rest of the region and really placed US almost in the position of

being alite state for US policy. You know, she's been inviting the US military if they want to base the operations Auto Turinaud. She has opened our doors to that. She has called for the US to kill them all violently, extraditionally and stated that she is quivoctly aligned with what the US is doing in the region despite its flagrant violations of international law.

US is in the region. However, though we may not fit that postcard perfect perception of tropical paradise, it is still necessary, i think, for US to stand in solidarity as a region, to speak with one voice when it comes to these issues, especially as a continued existence depends on the observation of international law. The respect for the UN Charter as small islands or safety is really in numbers.

And for the Prime Minister to deviate from that solidarity in such a blatant way, it's it's really quite sad, but it shouldn't come as a surprise because there have been efforts by the US to divide cara Con in the past. During his first term, Trump had pulled some cara Con countries into the LIMA Group, which was a US promoted coalition of right being governments that was pushing for regime change in Venezuela. And he's not doing the same thing with trying to get some Caracom governments to

facilitate his actions towards Venezuela. They approached Grenado recently to try and get Grenada's assistance in basing a satellite there on the island, and it's really ironic that they would approach Grenada, which is also quite close to Venezuela, because Grenado is famously one of the countries that the United States invaded in October of nineteen eighty three.

talk about the Venezuelan opposition. I guess, Michael, would you give I've done a pretty in depth discussion of Venezuela, a place where I have spent a decent amount of time, Like I wanted to see that revolution myself when I was like nineteen and I was studying political science that I wanted to see what this like pink Tide was about.

And I have reported a lot on Venezuela migrants. People who are new to the show, I guess the series I did from the Darien Gap would be where I would point you for my discussion of Venezuela and Venezuelan people. I still speak to people of Venezuela almost every day, but I think people could do micro with like a like a high level overview of the Venezuelan opposition. I guess we can talk about that about prize as well, which, despite what Donald Trump is saying, was not awarded to him this year.

very US centric analysis. One idea that has been floated is that the Nobel Committee didn't want to award Trump the prize, but thought that maybe awarding it to an ally of Trump, would we be away to modify Trump also possibly to encourage him to take a more peaceful approach at a time that the US is threatening armed intervention in some way in Venezuela, whether that is a counter arcotects operation or more likely a regime change operation of some kind, even though it's very unclear how they

would get to regime change from blowing up votes, even blowing up people.

you think differently? But I think we probably agree that the United States is sound likely to do it, like an Iraq style invasion of Venezuela. Can you explain the couple, like why I suppose just just for people who you know, think that that's what's happening in the Caribbean at the moment with this concentration of forces.

invasion but I live there some years after that. That's probably the closest analog to this, at least the way that the Drum administration is promoting this, which is to say, a regime change operation that is disguised as a counter narcotics operation. Famously, nor Diega, it was not a war. It was an arrest of a foreign leader who was

indeed involved in drug trafficking. And we knew that because he was literally a CIA asset whose drug trafficking was being protected as long as he was allied with the US against Cuban backed rebel groups in Central America. But at some point later he became too much of embarrassment for the US. Was genuinely a brutal guy, pulled off the torture, murder of who was spotifort, all.

government does that. In fact, it's the Coast Guard that is the US agency that has the best relationships with Cuba. It's oftentimes diplomacy kind of starts with the Coast Guard's ties with Cuba. But anyway, that aside, it doesn't make sense from a counter narcotics standpoint, because look, if you actually wanted to break up a cartel, what do you do. I mean, if you are a prosecutor investigator, right, you capture the smugglers, you seize the cargo, the contraband, which

is evidence. Then you try to flip them up for immunity for whoever your real targets are. Maybe your target is Maduro or someone else in the regime. But you can't do that when you kill everyone on the boat.

them to prosecute them of them. Apparently not. So this is all to say the idea that this is a counternarcotics operation doesn't hold up.

He keeps his whereabouts very secret. Even if somehow they were to drone strike him, it's not as if the regime as a whole would fall because it is an extremely militarized regime that is upheld by the armed forces who are not going to break with him because they have a hand in every lucrative business both legal and illegal, in Venezuela. They're not going to be paid off or not be swayed by a bounty that is currently what

something like fifty million dollars. I mean, there are people around Madula that have made upwards of a billion dollars in oil rents. So it's not like you could pay off people.

called the Barbados Agreement in twenty twenty three. And this was meant to be in exchange of partial lifting the sectoral sanctions that have been in place on Venezuela for a long time, in which the Trump administration, the first Trump administration, really tightened in exchange for the Vaduro government agreeing to stand for elections. And those elections happened last year.

It was pretty clear from pre electoral surveys and from exit polls and from the vote returns that were coming in at the time, that the opposite you, Canada, was going to win by an enormous march about a thirty

five point margin. The candidate was officially at Mundo Gonzales, but he was candidates mostly because Murray Cornea Matado, the now Nobel Prize laureate, was barred from running, so she for blessing to Gonzales to be basically her proxy, and people were more or less voting for both of them, so to speak, but both he and her are much

more popular. Maduro, who by all accounts as an extremely unpopular leader, especially in contrast to as you said, Ugu Chavas, who, for all his faults, was a genuinely charismatic yeah leader, and you know, he did stand for elections and win them, you know, pretty convincingly. Incidentally, oil the price of oil was about one hundred dollars a barrel when he was president, and he was able to spend a lot on social programs.

But that aside, Yeah, Helpsudo is pretty unpopular. With this point, he is pretty widely seen as both a tyrant and also quite incompetent at managing basic state services. So he was going to lose unless he stole the election, which he did. The CNE the Best One Election board announced that he had won with just fifty one percent of the vote, which is I have to say, I give him credit for being subtle. I expected them to announce that.

existed before, which was called a snapback. And these are sanctions that the Venezuelan government has weathered for for many, many years, so it's not really that much of a disincentive. So anyway, everyone basically admits at this point that he stole the election, but what are you going to do about it? The opposition, for its part, has taken different approaches to how to confront him and is famously very divided. The Venezuelan opposition has never really been on the same page.

They've never really had an uncontested leader. Mariequrna much is about the closest they have had. But she herself really represents more one wing of the opposition, the more you might say, hard line wing. For a long time there was a hard line wing personified by Lopez, and there was a more I don't know if you call it a soft line or liberal or just more willing to talk to the regime wing led by Capriles who ran against at the in the first election. And it's even

within those factions there are there competing personality. It's a lot of it really is more personal than ideological. But Maricorne Machallo, she is on the right politically. She you know, styles herself after Margaret Thatcher. She is also, i will give a credit for this, a very good organizer. She is famously kind of gone into communities that have historically voted with the Chavista left, and convinced many people to leave that coalition. And also to her credit, you know,

I would say she is a very brave person. She has remained into the country at a time that many most opposition leaders, including Amodo Gonzalez, have plied the country, and she's been hiding. She knows that the regime would arrest, if not kill her at its soonest opportunity. Yet she still shows up unannounced at at events, at rallies and and makes speeches. So she has achieved this kind of mythic figure and this is something that obviously is only going to grow with the Nobel prize. So then the

question is what will this Nobel do. I think that one calculation is that it will simply keep her alive. You know, it'll be much harder for the Majoria government to kill her, if you know, if they would be killing a Nobel laureate, So that may buy her a little bit more time.

not to dislodge Maduro. Blowing up boats of possible drug traffickers, maybe just fishermen has not done anything. I think that nothing appears likely to lead to regime change. But I can understand the desperation of people living under what is broadly acknowledged to be an extremely repressive regime.

There is so like, I've heard so many stories from so many people of such a difficult existence there can I can understand people's desperation, Andrew, you know, I've spoken about like the gulf between the government of Trnidad and Tobago and the people of Trinidad and Tobago right now, and obviously the same is true in Venezuela, right Like, It's not the opposition figures living in Spain who suffer when we have these sanctions, right it's not opposition candidates

who get blown up when they go fishing. It it's regular working class and it's whalen people. So do you want to talk about like, I'm not even sure what we can do by way of solidarity with these are of these nations, but maybe you have some thoughts on that.

of distrust. In terms of grassroots effort, there's a lot still to be done. The leader of the move On for Social Justice, which is a small progressive political party in Tranto Bago, it's a guy named David Abdullah, and he has been part of this assembly of Caribbean people who have been signing and issuing a declaration reasserting our desire for peace, and that has been signed by various

progressive organizations, social movements and figures across the Caribbean. And there was also an effort last week Thursday, that's October sixteenth, to organize a region wide day of action in defense of the Caribbean, and so different actions were taking place all over in fifteen countries. We had press conferences, we had state months, and we had pickets that sit in

US embassy's and complicate demonstrations. It was kind of in the middle of the day on a Thursday, so there wasn't that big of it out from Barraso when I had gone, but it shows that there is and from the at least anecdotal experience. There is a desire to keep the US out of this situation, you know, despite the issues of the Venezuelan government, despite the issues of

our own governments. We don't want intervention, you know, And right now, all we can really levy is our voices, you know, our words, and all we can really do. I think, besides protest, what is going on is prepare for the worst, to ensure that we have, you know, sit and support systems in place in case, you know, push comes to show.

the left, so to speak. But you know, as someone speaking personally who comes from the labor movement, you know, comes from the Bernie allied left so to speak, you know, I do think it's been a little bit uncomfortable to observe how certain elements of the global left have have stood up for the Madu regime or the very least been The criticism of it has been taboo, and I think a lot of that is a legacy of Tapas Chapas having this strong personal charisma, but also that he

was willing to confront the United States the Bush administration at a time of the Iraq War, you know, especially low point in the US's global reputation. Also Venezuela's oil rants at the time, which we're financing a lot of not just social programs Venezuela, but a lot of financial largesse to Allied states and movements around around the region. So a lot of left parties reflexively defended Maduro even as his repression and mismanagement just ramped up. I will

say that's fading. You know, we were seeing this within Latin America. First of all, there's kind of a generational divide, and some of the older generational Latin American Left, like Lula or like Petro, have not been overwhelmingly anti Maduru,

but have expressed skepticism about the electoral results. But then there's a younger generation such as Borg and Chile at Chile and Adebolo and Guatemala who have been openly very critical Abouduro and want to just not let him or his camp, so to speak, define what it means to be on the left. And really the only countries that have unquestionably backed him at this point are Bolivia and Cuba, but also outside of the region, Russia, Iran, China.

not opposition parties, that are not running for office. They're not necessarily calling for regime change, made them very critical of sanctions, but they have tried to push for better changes, you know, quality of life, you know, reforms that might lead to less repression, open up more space for civil society, and you know, those things are necessary when people are

really living day by day, you know. And I think that if people on the left want to play the long game and understand care about the prospects of the future, they need to understand that the Maduro regime is the worst model.

Maduro model. And it makes sense. And if a lot of people on the left are very skeptical of Maria Kurgna Machado like I have skin about for policy platforms of privatization and and other neoliberal ideas, they also shouldn't be surprised if there's been a decade of people being told that this model of corruption, authoritarianism, state terror, criminal insecurity. That's what socialism is. Then people are gonna believe that, and then they're going to then they're vote against whatever

that is. And this model has provoked the greatest refugee crisis, certainly in the region. Eight million people. They're all carrying with them stories about why they left right. And so if there ever were to be democratic elections in Venezuela, it's pretty clear the country would turn to the right.

And I don't think we should be surprised by that, you know, And I think we should also recognize that many of the things that Maludor embodies, these strong men politics, are things that are embodied by other strong men, not just on the left too.

what he called all these good looking generals. He disparaged one Guido, calling him the Beto O'Rourke of Venezuela, means you know, so, I think that there is there's something he said about strong men recognizing strong men, and a lot of these authoritarian lessons are not limited to one side of the ideological spectrum.

not with some strong man's state. We saw this in Syria as well, right, Like, it is heartbreaking, genuinely heartbreaking to explain to people how someone who identifies as a leftist is also denying that their children were gased by chemical weapons in Syria. Right, This campus graze tendency and the American less specifically is incredibly toxic, and anybody who

seriously considers themselves to be a lestist. It is massively undermining any credibility they have when they associate themselves with regimes which willingly murder their own people. I would like to see people stop doing that. Perhaps both of you could finish up by suggesting US coverage of this has not been great, right like, it tends to focus on the United States very much, and Venezuela kind of appears as a and lithic entity. Turning down Tobago rarely gets

any coverage in the US media. I did see I think Reuter's or AP had done a piece about how fishermen were relucted to go out. I would like to see more of that kind of reporting. Perhaps both of you could suggest a couple of sources where people could read about this.

There's a page called Vintage Caribbean and there's another page called Trinbago for Palestine. Both of those have been doing a lot of coverage on this particular incident lately, so you can look through those as well if you want to get us sort of a grassroots steak on the situation.

and they've haven't been doing pretty good reporting. And there's lots of blogs as well, and you know, newsletters that you can check out. I will say just made this

I'm biased because I focus a lot on crime. The site Insight Crime is pretty good in terms of looking into specific criminal groups like Bindeagua and calling a question if you know, if this really is a you know, it's something that is controlled by the puppet master from you afore as you know, like Lido and some of these some of these narratives that are justifying this, I'd also just as a recommendation, I would say, you know, maybe it should be a little bit skeptical too about

the timing and the purposes of these things. I did point out in a piece that I wrote for the Center Financial Policy. Then the first boat strike happened on the same day to the House Judiciary Committee was releasing a redacted number of files related to the Jeffrey Epstein case. You know, and I think that there are many reasons why this administration would like to use this confrontation as a conmane distraction from from other things that they would rather not be talking about.