The final wave, a mini growth scare, stimulus calculus and the (not so) lame duck Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial or would like to discuss our research with me directly, please email [email protected]. Click below...
Nov 16, 2020•11 min
A blowout employment report, Republican success everywhere except the top of the ticket, TCJA is likely to survive and the '21 capex outlook. This week’s report The Not So Commanding Heights Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our client presentation, measures of risk and valuation, recommended reading list and additional products. If you would like a 30-day free trial...
Nov 09, 2020•16 min
Risk off sell everything, payrolls preview, equity volatility is the only escape valve and fasten your seat belt This week’s report Be Greedy When Others are Fearful Figure 1: SPX risk is the S&P 500 Volatility, the Volatility of Volatility, correlation and skew indices as well as the term structure of VIX futures (6 month less 1 month) in a z-score format. Wednesday it expanded to 2.43 standard deviations, it remained above 2 on Thursday and Friday. We consider these readings high relative ...
Nov 02, 2020•12 min
Contrarian polling, lockdown nation fading despite increased cases, election strategy and a big week for earnings and macro data This week’s report: Over? Did you say Over? Figure 3: We want to draw your attention on the 2018-2019 period when world GDP was positive, but global trade contracted. There is no other similar period since China was integrated into global supply chains. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research pl...
Oct 26, 2020•12 min
The fiscal cliff that wasn't, structuralism antitrust policy and the 2021 policy outlook Reconciliation A once a year opportunity to circumvent the filibuster… Figure 5: Healthcare margins have contracted for 3-decades, we believe technology innovation adoption is critical to the nascent recovery extending through the ‘20s. Expanding the role of government is likely to slow the process. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your rese...
Oct 19, 2020•14 min
Reflation, earnings and fiscal dominance lessons from the '40s and '50s Let's Be Independent Together Figure 5: Price instability, as measured by the rolling standard deviation of CPI, is rebounding. It was extreme in the post-war period, both interest and exchange rates were fixed leaving domestic consumer prices as one of the few escape values for business cycle pressures. Here is a video from a TD Ameritrade Network appearance on Friday: https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoXUNF1GBdQ5_f...
Oct 12, 2020•14 min
An October surprise, the 'Y' shaped recovery, and Financial repression or MMT? The Home Stretch Figure 2: There has been no improvement in continuing claims in California. California’s insured unemployment rate is 16.1%, New York’s is 13.7%, Texas is 7.7% and Florida is 4.3%. Pandemic NPIs in coastal states are slowing the recovery. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to ...
Oct 05, 2020•11 min
Add equity risk, the mix of growth matters, and clean up of the Nasdaq aisle It's Still Early Figure 3: We will be scouring earnings reports and the data for evidence of improved capital spending plans. 2021 is likely to be a very strong year for capex though a reversal of the corporate provisions of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act is a significant risk. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note a...
Sep 28, 2020•9 min
Reflation & recovery, tax & spend, fade the Fed reaction CNBC Reflation & Recovery Figure 2: The recovery of import prices began with détente in the Trump trade war and has continued through the pandemic. The easing of the demand for dollar denominated safe assets and associated dollar decline is a contributing factor, unlike the last cycle we do not expect imported deflation to resume as global supply chains are restructured to reduce risk. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber...
Sep 21, 2020•11 min
Skew collapses as Nasdaq positions get rinsed, banks are flush & inflation awakens Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note 2020 QE is Different this Time Figure 2: Most investors think of skew (the premium for out-of-the-money options) in terms of downside put protection, however skew was rich all summer largely due to demand for upside calls on pandemic beneficiaries and the winner-take-most technology companies. Skew cheapened considerably during the 10% Nasdaq...
Sep 14, 2020•16 min
The Nasdaq whale, fiscal cliff that wasn't and a week of mostly charts Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note A Whale of a Short Gamma Position Figure 12: The spread between equity market and other asset classes market measures of risk got fairly extreme this week. The tech wreck was not triggered by macro risks. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain ...
Sep 08, 2020•12 min
The Fed scraps the Phillips Curve, inflation expectations rising and the case for anti-trust Bloomberg TV: "The market continues to defy us and just grind higher" Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note Economists against FANG Figure 6: These longer-run yield curves and market implied inflation increased sharply this week. The market took the Fed at their word they will tolerate higher inflation and the market increasingly believes they will get what they want this c...
Aug 31, 2020•8 min
The folly of collectivism, reflation, small business credit supply and real rate risk I will be appearing on Bloomberg TV with Jonathan Ferro at 9:30 AM EST on Monday Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note Reflation Figure 4: This chart is the best illustration of why the Fed should target price stability not a 2% target. We are unconvinced by their deflation risks thesis, low level disinflation from productivity enhancing technology is positive. Stable prices boost...
Aug 17, 2020•14 min
Macro momentum & pandemic progress offset policy stumbles, real rate reversal risk, and the labor market recovery continues unabated Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note A Real (Rate) Shocker Figure 3: The rate of change matters, as balance sheet expansion slows the risks of a policy normalization shock will increase. Below is a link to our 2H20 outlook note that is outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming...
Aug 10, 2020•11 min
Here is our appearance this morning on CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/08/03/ironsides-barry-knapp-on-tech-macro-trends-that-began-pre-coronavirus.html The 4th industrial revolution, reduce risk, resilient capex, enhanced UI debate and lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note The Lack of a Credible Plan Figure 2: California is the largest drag, continuing claims peaked at 4.8 million in April, fell to 2.2 million in M...
Aug 03, 2020•12 min
Micro to macro, high powered money, the tech wreck, Keynesian stimulus and herd immunity Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note Rational Expectations I will be appearing on CNBC’s The Exchange with Kelly Evans at 1pm EST Monday July 27 Figure 6: The election curve is steepening, this is part of the explanation for the still elevated measures of equity market risk. It is quite unusual to have a flat/upward sloping VIX futures term structure with the near month in the...
Jul 27, 2020•13 min
Supply side stimulus, economic momentum, earnings surprise and Fed strategy Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note Ironsides Macroeconomics Figure 6: The US economic surprise index is at an all-time high and has continued to increase relentlessly underscoring how misunderstood economic dynamism is in the US relative to the rest of the world. The greater role of technology is central to the dynamism. Here is a link to a video from CNBC Monday July 20 discussing our v...
Jul 20, 2020•8 min
The labor market recovery continues, corporate tax politics & an earnings season rally Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC We did not release a podcast last week because we placed our 2H20 outlook outside the paywall (link below) and wanted everyone to read it. Additionally, we closed the New Jersey office and relocated full time to Vail, Colorado this week. Figure 2: The recovery in the labor market has not decelerated in th...
Jul 13, 2020•9 min
US innovation, back to work, capex plans recover, wage rigidity and imported deflation Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Figure 2: The widening spread between the cumulative increase in initial claims and continuing claims is our proxy for back-to-work. The insured unemployment rate and continuing claims have stalled implying that the U3 unemployment rate has not changed much since the May emplo...
Jun 22, 2020•11 min
The Fed forecast ignites a risk-off episode and a look at fiscal and monetary policy post-election Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note ...
Jun 16, 2020•13 min
Don't fight the business cycle, a global trade and capex recovery, payrolls review and Treasury market struggles Please listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read ...
Jun 08, 2020•12 min
Yield curve control, early signs of recovery, sector recommendation changes and more balanced equity market risk/reward Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read ...
Jun 01, 2020•11 min
Lockdowns, beyond put/call ratios, a housing recovery and the Roaring '20s? Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Here is a link to a CNBC interview this morning we posted on Twitter, please follow us @barryknapp Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional cl...
May 26, 2020•8 min
Billionaires' row, socialism with Chinese characteristics and creative destruction Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Below are links to four recent reports that are outside the paywall so you can get a sense for the subscriber product. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, or if you are an institutional client, on boarding us to your research platform to read our full note and gain access to our ...
May 18, 2020•9 min
The market is not wrong, workers aren't discouraged, laggard banks and long-run policy risks Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our full notes, research library, chart books and the analyst. If you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month....
May 11, 2020•14 min
Reconciling economics and equities, capital spending, revisiting the Carter Credit Crunch & the public policy outlook Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our full notes, research library, chart books and the analyst. If you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list. Click below for details, for individual subscrip...
May 04, 2020•11 min
The shape of market recoveries, early cycle sectors and asset allocation Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our full notes, research library, chart books and the analyst. If you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list. Click below for details, for individual subscriptions the price is $89/month. Figure 4: We unders...
Apr 27, 2020•12 min
Corona costs & benefits, fear & loathing of the Fed and the end of the Great Disinflation Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our full notes, research library, chart books and the analyst. If you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list. Figure 5: For decades housing, core services and core goods trended toge...
Apr 20, 2020•8 min
Past the peak, financial cycles, inflation and serology Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our full notes, research library, chart books and the analyst. If you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list. Figure 1: The peak for the rate of change for new cases was March 27, a few days before the US equity market low. ...
Apr 13, 2020•11 min
Reach for yield unwind, targeted fiscal stimulus, interest rate caps and the banks Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.link...
Mar 09, 2020•12 min
