They're panicking out there, don't fight the Fed and the consumer fallout Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/...
Mar 02, 2020•11 min
A mini-Taper Tantrum, recovery in business confidence and the risks of Sandervism Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider becoming a full subscriber gain access to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linke...
Feb 23, 2020•14 min
With the markets fixated on the implications of the Chinese Central Committee’s attempts to contain the coronavirus on global supply chains, Chinese consumer demand, the nascent recovery in global manufacturing and exports, and demand for oil, in this week’s note we are going to look past the pandemic at a threat to the consensus of a benign inflation outlook. Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please c...
Feb 17, 2020•13 min
Coronavirus clarity remains elusive, stronger productivity and labor participation Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider subscribing to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ ...
Feb 10, 2020•12 min
Despite the risks to global supply chains, the tailwinds are still blowing Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider subscribing to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barrykn...
Feb 03, 2020•11 min
The Davos contrarian indicator, Fed's denial, and cyclical manufacturing recovery Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider subscribing to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @...
Jan 27, 2020•12 min
Chinese reform occurs when they have exhausted all other possibilities Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please consider subscribing to our written products, or if you are an institutional investor, adding us to your research provider list Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barryknapp ...
Jan 21, 2020•11 min
The calendar changed but this week's events highlighted trends that began last decade Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barryknapp This institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your...
Jan 13, 2020•11 min
An Echo of ‘88, trade shocks, monetary interventionism and the US economic juggernaut Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics: https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barryknapp This institutional communication has been prepared by Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC (“Ironsides Macroeconomics”) for your...
Dec 23, 2019•14 min
Deglobalization, China, Innovation, Energy Stability and Rate Suppression Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our December 14, 2019 note that is available to both our paid and free subscribers. If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconom...
Dec 16, 2019•12 min
Three tailwinds until 2Q20, and the tail of two halves Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our December 7, 2019 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsi...
Dec 09, 2019•11 min
Doubling down on state owned enterprises is no way to go through life Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our November 23, 2019 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-758...
Nov 25, 2019•10 min
Next year's election is likely to have tax policy as a central issue Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our November 16, 2019 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584...
Nov 18, 2019•10 min
Yield curve 'disinversion' is forecasting an end to the global trade recession Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our November 9, 2019 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Our podcasts can now be found in the Apple iTunes store. Barry C...
Nov 11, 2019•9 min
An accommodative Fed, trade truce and improving global outlook, what’s not to like? Listen to our podcast for a summary of the latest weekly note from Ironsides Macroeconomics https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our October 27th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Our podcasts can now be found in the Apple iTunes store. Barry ...
Nov 04, 2019•8 min
The markets are signalling an end to the global trade and manufacturing recession, listen to our podcast as we explain the basis for our optimistic outlook Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our October 27th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Our podcasts can now be found in the Apple iTunes store. Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 9...
Oct 28, 2019•7 min
A weaker dollar could loosen trade credit and boost global trade Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our October 12th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Our podcasts can now be found in the Apple iTunes store. Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ ...
Oct 21, 2019•7 min
We may not get a fat pitch to buy stocks, but easy money is back Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our October 12th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barryknapp This institutional communication has been pre...
Oct 14, 2019•6 min
Our 4Q19 outlook, the labor market looks tight, but a recession is not imminent Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our October 5th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Barry C. Knapp Managing Partner Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC 908-821-7584 https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/ @barryknapp This institutional communicatio...
Oct 07, 2019•6 min
Adam Smith's invisible hand is solving the 'China problem' Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 28 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber . We made this week’s full note available to everyone, the link to the note is listed below. If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] https://ironsidesmacro.substack.com/p/capitalism-socialism-and-mercantilism “Political leaders in capitalist countries who ch...
Sep 30, 2019•8 min
Trade Restriction or Reciprocity, October 'QE Lite' and the end of forward guidance Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 21 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Fed Chairman Powell’s justification for the FOMC’s second consecutive ‘insurance’ rate cut was weak capital spending, a worsening global growt...
Sep 23, 2019•5 min
Was the wild week for equity factors and Treasuries due to the growth mix shift? Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 15 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Last week’s analysis of mortgage-backed security prepayment risk, known in fixed income circles as convexity, and 44 basis point increase in nomi...
Sep 16, 2019•7 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our September 7 note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Only the Fed Can Save Us After returning home from a television appearance this week, I had the following conversation with my wife. Debbie: You were great today (she is a supportive wife). Everyone agreed with you. Me: That’s ...
Sep 09, 2019•8 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 31st note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] Equities had a strong week as officials from both sides of the trade war attempted to diffuse tensions, however, emerging market currencies and Treasury bond yields remained near their lows ahead of the start date for the next ...
Sep 03, 2019•7 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 17th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent free subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] The August tariff tweet correction morphed into yet another recession scare due to a convexity exacerbated rally in global government bonds. We do not believe the risk of a US recession has risen appreciably in recent weeks des...
Aug 19, 2019•6 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 10th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] When we recommended cutting risk on August 2, we considered downside risk for US equities from currency correlation effects, the likely duration of a ‘risk-off’ episode and the economic effects through business confidence and global...
Aug 12, 2019•6 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our August 2nd note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] A lot has gone right for US equity investors in 2019 and until now, other than a tactical call to reduce global risk in May; we have remained steadfastly bullish on US equities. 2Q19 earnings were exceptionally strong relative to exp...
Aug 05, 2019•7 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 27th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] The ECB Governing Council’s decision to allow the Fed to make the first monetary policy-easing move, while temporarily disappointing to investors, put the currency war on hold, for now. Also in the note, global trade weakness, potenti...
Jul 29, 2019•6 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 13th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report . If you are a recent subscriber and would like a 30 day trial, please email me at [email protected] What we learned from the first week of 2Q earnings season Despite it being early in 2Q19 earnings season, we have seen evidence supporting three of our secular and one our key cyclical macroeconomic trends. The secular themes are bank...
Jul 22, 2019•6 min
Please listen to our weekly podcast summarizing our July 13th note and consider becoming a paid subscriber, if you are not already, to read the full report We expect the Fed to cut rates 25bp in July, pull forward the end of balance sheet contraction and later this fall change their inflation target from 2%, to an average of 2% through the cycle. Not to be outdone, the ECB will change forward guidance from time dependent to inflation contingent, restart QE and cut rates while also changing their...
Jul 15, 2019•6 min
