Greetings and welcome to Inside Baseball. I'm Liam Allen, back with my friend Morse Sacks. How you doing, MB? It's great to be back. I missed you. How have you been? Good. What did we have? Father's Day last weekend or something? Father's Day and uh my wedding anniversary. Is it 40? Is it 40? No, it's uh Gosh, I'm supposed to know this, right? 1985 we got married and uh so you can do the math.
Uh it's forty. So it's yeah, we're in the neighborhood. We're doing okay, forty years, dude. And you're only sixty two, right? You're you're sp sixty three. It's we've had a good run. Yeah, you don't you you don't really support any of my arguments this week, um, because you're just not an average guy in any sense. Okay. There's nothing like, okay.
Bloomberg came out this week. Bloomberg had a headline this weekend that said the average guy might be onto something. Okay, that was the headline with a straight face. Okay. The average guy might be onto something. So I can't talk to you about any of that because The average guy is twice divorced. Get out, all right? Get out. Father's Day has been fun. Union. Most guys most average guys have are divorced, okay? Um are not retired.
And are struggling out there. So you and I, like I I have nothing to talk to you about. Um I have my struggles. You know, I Cheryl wants to go swimming this afternoon. I'm I'm praying for rain. I I hate to go that means like walking a hundred yards or may maybe more, maybe three hundred yards across the the the the rear line. Yeah. Yeah, we all have our our cross to bear.
Um, well it's nice to see you. Everyone's been asking me how's Liam, and I'm like, well, you know, we we rarely, rarely uh pass intersect lately. You know, you're busy raising a family. I'm busy, I don't know, doing what. Um y you know, it's been a uh it's been a difficult couple of weeks looking at the market. I I have a um a pen pal relationship with a very talented man who is no stranger to this podcast. His name is Anthony Peters.
And um he wrote me a note this morning and he's taken a couple of weeks off. lamenting having to come back and what is he gonna talk about and and uh use So succinctly phrased it when I asked if we may take last week off, you said same boat, same sea. I I
still amazed that you you came up with that phrase yourself, which is just profound. But I I think it does it does carry the day when you when you try and produce a regular source of information for people to come up with something that's new or interesting when there isn't anything new and there isn't anything interesting. But uh as we like to say, we we shall proceed. I I was kind of pursuing the news headlines this weekend, not uh digging too deep. I I saw at the annual Haj.
A thousand people died because of the heat. It's insane. No, um UNRWA has reported that is 10,000 people, mostly women and children, attacked by Israeli bombs at a church, but I I don't know if that's actually what happened. in my experience prolonged standing in extremely high temperatures is not accretive to one's health. Um so that's it's too bad. Pro tip for next year for those. Um that's the perfect environment to get the Goldman box. Yeah, no kidding. Speaking of the Middle East, um
You care about you care about the petrodollar in Saudi in Saudi Arabia leaving the petrodollar?'Cause that happened this week. So if you want to go over there, our friends and I put our friends in quotes the Saudis I thought this I saw this little tidbit this week Saudi Arabia, you know, didn't renew or whatever, got rid of the petrodollar. And then three days later, CBS News comes out with the headline: We have found evidence that the hijackers from 9-11 were from Saudi Arabia.
The evidence you mean that a bunch of people that day got on a private jet and flew directly to Saudi Arabia? No, they're not they're not our friends. They're our enemies. Thank you. You know, just like the Russians, they're our enemies. Yeah. Um I we don't really have friends. I you know, that is a joke I've been trying to teach my children, I think successfully, you know. Mm most people are acquaintances. Um The Saudis
Uh you mean the friends that in the 70s with the oil embargo? That this to me, and I think uh may he rest in peace, Charlie Munger, and I uh saw eye to eye on so many things. Uh but one was the notion that we are buying directly or indirectly oil. from somebody that's malevolent when we have it plenty here. Now I get it's not in the perfect place. And, you know, there's the global warming. Clearly that's what happened upon those poor people at the Hajj, the global warming.
took them out. Um maybe they should have been a little bit more proactive. Um but why why do we send dollars abroad for something we have here. I I just it Yeah. Environmentalists play that the answer? Is that the answer? The the number one answer is it the environmentalists? They want to protect uh all the oils in in in protective, they want to protect it. They don't want to drill in Alaska or in Kansas, wherever, pick a place. I'd like to say yes, but I I don't
You know, when when we have such attuned listeners like Bob Cobb, I I'm careful to be flippant with my answers. I I don't know. Yeah. Uh I had dinner with uh uh an older gentleman friend who uh has made a career out of running electrical. you know, like the utility lines. And you know, uh w at dinner he was saying, and I don't remember exactly, but when you are looking in Manhattan
at night with all the lights on. He said, you know, if you just eliminated the lights on those buildings, it's some huge percentage of the daily use of electricity. Very often when we talk about the deficit, which is getting worse and worser. And somebody put a note up how Greece is paying down its debt. You know, we have the such tremendous resources in the United States, um, but we have been failed. by the leaders. And and and I don't need to pick out anyone. They're all bad.
they're they're all bad. And um, you know, how do you get rid of the deficit? You you you look at the example of World War II to me, you just decide that we're going to go into a wartime economy and I don't mean build planes and missiles. You just start limiting um resources and you and and you uh allocate things to
Help pay down the debt. Government had the government had the population under their thumb though during World War Two. And there was a patriotic sense of duty during World War Two where it was like, Yeah. You know, all the f the wild stories about the changes in packaging'cause they needed tin for bullets and they need like everyone was everyone seemed to be on board.
Yeah. Whereas now it it's like civil war, dude. It's like there's it's a it's a it's hyper-local civil war. It's a hyper-local civil war, is what it is, dude. Everyone is enemies around.
Um we were at dinner at uh Alex and Courtney's house last night and um on the way over, Cheryl had mentioned to me how she likes to go for walks,'cause we live in a uh a nice leafy area, and she had mentioned how it's increasingly difficult because not only are the drivers becoming more aggressive, She said they're just mean and we're dinnerin' Courtney.
is a walker as well. And she used the exact same term. People are just mean. Oh yeah, dude. Uh um you know, I bemoan how nice and airy we live in, uh, except the people are assholes. um a regular listener hedge fund manager had to go out to the Midwest to uh court some unsuspecting investors. And uh we were chatting and he goes. It's so weird out there. I'm like, well what do you mean? He goes Like I know it's it's almost like You think they're teeing you up for a con. Yeah. And um
I don't know what happened with the East Coast. I mean uh just maybe when they're born they just get a stick stuck up their ass and they can't get it out. I don't I don't know. Yeah, dude, the un well there's a sense of entitlement. Um w we live we live in an entitlement world where You p you pick a you pick a l a person and they're they feel like they're entitled to something. You know, the rich guy in the Rolls Royce that wants to
squeeze you off the road. He he wants to get home and you're in his way, you know. Um his wife that's whipping down North Street to get to town that's gonna squeeze Cheryl off the road. She wants to get to and she shouldn't wait, you know. Um it's just My favorite time was back when we used to do the gimbal's ride, and at the early part of the ride, it's a it's a falls flat into a very steep climb. Yeah. And by the time the group of bikes
anywhere from 20 to 50, depending on time of year, has c literally blocked the road. So now you got 20 cars behind us. They're all honking their their horns. And then at the top of the climb, there's a a blind left hand turn. And from time to time, cars will zoom in the air. other lane to get around this group of people. And by the time the frustration has set it, this car is now going seventy miles an hour.
Head into a a a blind turn. And um two things. One is the first comment out of my mouth is he's late for church. Secondly, is I'm convinced there's um there's someone's gonna die. Hundred percent, dude. I've been telling Deluco for months. It's not funny, but I've been telling Deluco like the numbers don't just statistically, dude. And dude I spent a lot of time on the road. I spent a lot of time on the road in Westchester Fairfield on the bike in the car. Um and it
When I'm in the car, I hate the fucking cyclist. I don't want to sit behind Dave Visaki doing four miles an hour up the road, okay? So I'm I'm seething, seething by the time I get around him. So by s by default, I hate all the other cyclists and I'm one of them. But like dude, every asshole in the world got a bike during COVID and goes out and rides three abreast in the middle of North Street.
And sometimes I do. I want to mow them right the fuck down and be teach them their lesson. Be like, look, that's not how you do it. You ride single file on the right and you move along. And get off the busy roads, dipshit. Well yeah, I I I I get it. Uh I've quit riding bikes on the road in Arizona. I may have mentioned this uh here. They've they've put in these bike lanes in Arizona.
Yet the old people think that they just widen the shoulder. So there have been a couple of instances. I'm laughing because it's just uh it's it's sad, but it's just so pathetic. These old people think now they got this huge shoulder to pull off into. They just um have absolutely no consumption that there's 20 guys on bicycles between them and the shoulder. Um So yeah. Um so there there's been a lot in the news and I want to talk about it.
But i it's a little it's a it's a strange situation because Is you get older, you see more things. And the bulk of the things you see and hear in your life debatable, but are generally because something bad happened to someone. Very very few days do you open the newspaper and you read something good, right? So To come here on a Sunday morning when we don't get to see each other very much, to bemoan
you know, this is wrong or that's wrong. I I don't know. We started this thing as a way, first of all, to spend time together. And secondly, sort of begin kind of a basic um uh common sense plain English discussion of financial markets. And we've been in very, very unique times. Um we've talked about a lot of things and generally um I tend to be a bit of a seller of new concepts. A couple of reasons. Again, I'm repeating myself, you know, I was
an owner of the company that was selling the tire pressure monitoring systems, which are now ubiquitous, right? Didn't didn't make a penny. So, you know, I'm very familiar with having a great Product. poorly managed or at and or at the wrong time, right? So then these news things come along and you know I I've learned that lesson. Um, you'll see new products, and of course, the products have been made up by someone, and there's expected margin to be in them so they they promote them.
seminal one in this example for me where the um constant proportion constant proportion debt obligation, CPDO, which we talked about was to me the moment of clarity on the great financial crisis. It was an absurd product. It got rated triple A and it was the beginning of the end, right? Okay.
So I saw that and I s stayed away from So then other products come along and um there wasn't there was a a couple of years ago um one of the kids uh had some friends over and um one of them was a young man and he was telling me how there was this great app, how they could send money from one person to the other. And I said, Well how do you how do you know, you know, that the money's safe and this and and this was uh a polite young man. Um But uh when I started asking him about it.
you know, I kinda got the polite version of the okay boomer. And I was just gonna say it. I was just gonna say it. Yeah. Yeah, it's an app. It's an app. Okay, old man. Yeah. You yeah, I can hear the kids' exasperation. Yeah, you push the button, you know? Yeah. Yeah. What is ignorant? So I I see on June seventh. uh and CNBC. Um Synapse bankruptcy trustee says eighty five million of customer savings is missing in fin fintech meltdown.
Well yeah, I mean okay, yeah, it sucks for you. Um I'm suspecting had that eighty five million been in the bank, you'd have been safe. Of course you go back in time and that famous quote, S to S in Robo, uh Maybe before the FDIC you might have had a problem, but but you know, I I'm a little bit lost. In the uh why do we need all of these things? When the system works. Now, I understand these are very very general statements. Excuse me.
I've been lucky enough to be able to operate within the banking system. For a number of reasons. One is I had real income. I wasn't paid in cash. Um I had enough money that the fees weren't onerous or anything like that. And I understood the system. So it made perfect sense for me. So Bitcoin comes along and of course, you know, I start looking at, you know.
Why do we need it? Well, none of the reasons, you know, other than hiding money or illicit transactions m made sense to me, yet yet it it took off, right? Um And so you look you look a little foolish claiming to be an an expert in the financial market. And when, you know, a hundred million goes missing here or they get fined for a billion dollars and you know, you talk to people who are true believers.
they sh they wave you off or they'll say, well, you know, credit card fraud, yeah, yeah, yeah. And and the credit card part to me is a red herring because That's a private company. That's the problem. That's not the global thing. Visa goes out of business tomorrow. It doesn't show up on Jerome Powell's lap, to the best of my. So, you know, we're in a new era and everything from um any Apple product you buy to my
uh erstwhile electric bike has AI, artificial intelligence. And so uh I have a friend, I've probably mentioned But I'll repeat it because it's it it bears repeating. He's on the board of directors of a major hospital in the United States. And so he goes to the board meetings. I had dinner with him a week or two ago. And at the board meeting, he said, you know, um, So tell me what what have you guys done with the AI? And they look at'em and they're like, eh nothing.
He's like, what do you mean, not nothing? He goes, Well, you know, the doctors don't speak computer. and the computers don't speak doctor. And so there's not a lot of cross-pollination there. So do your own research. I come back and I use Google, which apparently uses 10% of the energy of AI. Not that I'm concerned about energy, right? Because what difference does that make to anybody? But I can't find any studies. and research in cancer using AI. Now the things I can find
involve transcription of doctor's notes. Okay. Very valuable tool. Already exists. You don't you don't need AA. Um, you know, we had dinner with these friends last night, the the eldest son, uh rocket scientist, computer genius. He's has seen that, you know. You got all these people who want access to it, but they don't know how to get access to it. So there's a product out there that people seem to think is going to make a difference, yet It doesn't seem to me.
it's being put to use. Now I I would really through the either an email or post on the blog. I'd love to see a scientific research paper where artificial intelligence has discovered something, you know, uh uh free subscription to anyone who's shown me how um uh bitcoin has made the world a better place. Um You know, and again, when you get older, like I have You tend to be cautious, it's just human nature.
But then to younger people, you just sound like the guy complaining how gas used to be, you know, fifty cents. The internet's this thing's not gonna take off. Yeah. Well the the internet. I was a little slow to adopt the But... And the in my world, it got forced upon me. And so just like interest rate swaps, you know, the lingo, like there's there's there's trade bargain. And
It took me a while, but I wasn't gonna spend the time to memorize all these terms to discover it wasn't viable. Now I know these things backwards and forwards only because I sat on and I just beat myself until I learned, you know, pay and receive and That's the sort of thing. So here we are where uh one stock in a very short order has become, if not the wealthiest company in the world, it it's certainly vying for it. I guess moment by moment it goes back and forth. But you know, I I I think
Could it be worth that? You're asking the wrong guy. I I don't know. I wonder how if it's worth that much. Uh I don't see it operating in my life. I mean I I did on the bike the AI thing, I guess decided at the peak of the climb and no no no longer needed the motor to go.
And I fell off my bike. And I I I don't think I broke the rib, but it's definitely Yeah. So I can sleep but not well. Uh You know, as that famous philosopher said the other day, if God had m wanted men to ride electric bikes, he would have given them um lithium-ion testicles.
S bridge too far. God's not a fan of e-bikes. Got it. Well, I, you know, so I don't have my e-bike anymore. It's it's gone. Um little pro tip. Um A good uh friend listener to the show, Leslie Harris, um has a way he approaches executing orders in the market. He executes everything as a marketer. And uh his logic is
You know, Ken Griffin ends up on the other side of all of my trades anyway. What's the I because the nature of the way we traded, which was a higher frequency in a shorter duration than Leslie, we were more precise about certain And I've carried that cross with me long enough that I'm starting to move into Leslie's camp. The problem is the things I traffic and tend to be a little less liquid. So market orders, you know, not so Um anyway.
I think I mentioned to you that having spent less time looking at the markets and uh Staring at the computer in general, I've started becoming a prolific reader. And I'm just plowing through books at such a rate. Now To be clear, I'm reading for pleasure. I'm not reading them like I'm gonna get tested. But uh it's fine, you know, I'm getting 85%. You know, that 85% of something's better than 100% of nothing. But uh I've come across a couple of peculiar things. Um
And this is what's shocked me more than anything. So I'm talking to a buddy and um He's a member of a book club, which to me is a little bit of a red flag, but in any way. Apparently at his book club Somebody mentioned they had read the um manifesto by the unibomber. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Ted Kaczynski. Yeah. I would like to read that. I would like to read that. Well good. Whoa. I think a bird just hit the window. Um a man less than a mile from here.
was killed by the unibomber. He was a oh yeah, down on Lake Avenue. He was on his list or something? Uh he was an advertising guy. And one of his clients was a technology company. So, you know, wow. It's what six degrees of separation. But so uh in any event, I get the book, The Unabomber, and Like you feel a little weird just o uh opening the book up, right? It's like this fucking chucklehead guy blowing people up. But he was super smart, wasn't he? It's shocking.
He he nailed it. Okay. He got it everything right. That's what I thought. He got everything right. Obviously he probably used the same marketing people we do. I'm sorry, I can't help it. But uh the whole concept, and you know, it's a little bit like reading the the confusion of confusions, you know, it it 400 years old. So you need to give the guy a little artistic license to interpret a bit. But Ted Kaczynski.
Hit it on the screws. He talked about how the technology was gonna increase depression, make people feel isolated. y you know, just uh I I I really, really, really recommend it. The book can't be I'm sorry, I'm sorry. He only uh I'm not gonna I'm not downplaying this. No, go ahead. He murder only three people died.
You're one you got one of the three down on Lake Avenue. I can't believe that. I like if you asked me of like trivial pursuit, how many did the unibomber? I'll believe one of the I'd be like, Oh, there's like a hundred people, right? No, he injured twenty, killed three. Yeah, sh guy from Chicago went to Harvard and then he went off the grid. But yeah, go ahead. Well that you know, the go ahead is is pretty much just like it's a two hundred page book, plus or minus.
I'm about halfway through. I don't know that I'll finish it. I don't think I need to finish it. I think it's a little bit like the Justin Lanier book we've talked about, you know, Ten Reasons to Eliminate Your Social Media. Yeah. And you have to Be smart enough to understand that all these things. are manipulating how you think and how you feel. And um Uh I mean again, you can go okay, boomer, but there's no arguing the fact that
kid depression is up, suicide's up, obesity's up, you know, what's up? You know, nothing good. Um and now uh the the Hot topic uh is this Ozimpic Ozimpic drug, which if you don't know about this, it's probably the most in demand drug. in the United States now where you take it in apparently you lose all hunger and people losing twenty, thirty, forty pounds.
Imagine what that does to your body. Imagine the how what that does to you. Think about how hard it is to lose five pounds. And you're as an athlete, as a guy, as a normal guy to lose ten pounds, you're gonna take drugs and drop thirty if you're a fat fuck to begin with. Good luck with your body. It's it's I'm glad we'll get the fat fuck bleeped out and post it. But So, you know, I've been on a keto diet for a couple of years now. And the reason is I concluded through research. Of my own.
um or more accurately just reading research. Like sugar is terrible. Sugar is just like the worst thing for you. And so I give very little sugar. And when I say sugar, I I'm talking about carbohydrates. Not, you know, domino sugar, anything like that, chocolate cake, none of that, just carbs. Maple syrup, spoonfuls of maple syrup on vanilla. Right, right. So when people go at the keto, they generally
treated as a a weight loss diet. And it if you eat a keto diet and you exercise fervently, you are going to shred weight like a madman. The bulk of the weight, my experience is you're gonna expel the bulk of the water in your body. And as you know, water seven pounds a gallon, right? So people who go on this diet
La de done, no carbs, they lose a bunch of weight, they hit their goal weight, whatever, and they go back to eating regularly, and guess what? Not only do they put put back the weight they had, they they gain more weight now because they've gotten rid of muscle and right so that that whole thing consists um
What apparently happens with the Ozempic is it works until you stop taking it. Nice. Nice. And as you said, you imagine what it's doing to your body. So if you if you weigh If you weigh, pick a number, 250, 300 pounds, let's say 300, and you're like, look, I've tried every kind of diet in the world. Maybe this will jumpstart a new behavior. So you go from 300 to 175 and you look yourself in the mirror and you're like, hey, I I like the way I look.
Like the way I look. Maybe I should learn how to eat a little better. And um I I won't put all that weight back on. But what I suspect happens is people keep pumping themselves full of these things and Uh as you point out, you know, can you imagine being stuck on this thing for life? Now uh we were with some other people a couple weeks ago and and one of the guys who I Tend not to try and debate'cause it's fruitless to have a debate.
But apparently, you know, w what he read was, oh, this thing's perfect. It's, you know, it's fine, it's healthy, everything's gonna lead to taking Ozempic because it cures this and it cures that. And I remember and I've talked to you about this. It's still on the market. The stuff called NAD plus, which is mitochondrial support. And as a cyclist, you know, mitochondria is the cell that gives you all the energy. So uh
It's reviewed by Harvard. Everyone says it's great. And, you know, we're out to dinner with our friend who, dear friend, who since passed was a uh neurologist. And I used to love to quiz her about the different kinds of medications and treatments for people and stuff. And she's just an incredible wealth of knowledge. But the NAD plus and then the human growth hormone came up. And she was like, Well, I'm familiar with the human growth hormone. So if you have a uh
uh make it up. A ten year old boy that is, you know, half the height he's supposed to be. Okay. Well that's a case for taking the risk of giving a child the human growth hormone, because otherwise he's going to grow up and he's you know, gonna be substantially shorter than normal. And you know, maybe that's okay. Maybe that's not how you wanna ch live your life, but that that's an option.
But people we know take it because it makes them stronger, makes them better cyclists. And this lady, uh her point was it makes everything grow. So it finds a dormant cancer cell. and it it gives it a spark. So it's similar to the NAD stuff, which you don't see in the literature. Apparently Cancer loves sugar and cancer loves NAD, and yet NAD is sold. ubiquitously uh the you go to these health spas and you can get it intravenously And you know, for a while before we did a lot of research
You know, we Cheryl and I would would take it'cause it's one of those vitamins like everyone says it's great and Harvard says it's great, you know. Um And yet, wrong place, wrong time, you're killing yourself. So I I I think less is more with these things. And and uh to your point about how people look, uh Keep it vague so there's no frustration. This woman that Cheryl and I know who's a masseuse.
She says she'll see people come in with Ozempic. Now, you know, typically massage is stripped onto your underwear. So she's seen these people for years and and she's like, they're skeletons. Yeah. It's frightening how they look. And you know, you're I suspect primarily Losing some muscle. along with the fat, right? It's not gonna be the fat's just not gonna disappear. And, you know, is we, even you, as we get older, you'd have a a tendency to lose muscle mass.
Which is why I'm working out with Travis regularly now because I haven't been doing a lot of weight bearing exercise and you know, um You you you need muscle mass, it's just how it is. And so um anyway that's That's pretty much all I got to say about that. It's gonna drive GDP that uh Zeppic because so many p it's gonna make people lighter, so they're gonna put more people on the airplane. That's that's one of the fucking theories.
So many people are gonna take Cozempic that the national average weight is gonna go from whatever, let's call it two twelve. slobs down to like one twelve down to like one eighty nine. So instead of putting a hundred and eighty passengers on the seven thirty seven max
Oh wait, that plane clan fly. Hold on. Um, if they're gonna put instead of putting 180 passengers on the Airbus, they're gonna put two hundred people on the Airbus, which is gonna mean more money and the GDP is gonna go up. That's that's what those M. I'm glad you mentioned GDP. Um, this is primarily a financial podcast. It was, yeah, it used to be until the market went to sleep for a month. Um so It's been a a running joke amongst our gang how um
the economists constantly get these payroll numbers wrong. Like they're approaching uh Joe DiMaggio's streak. Yeah. Um and I I was kind of trying to think a big picture. And so Including myself, I would have anticipated by now we would have had a recession and we we haven't. So okay. So I've been wrong and great. Now the difference between me and economist is when I'm wrong I I lose money.
Apparently when a guy like David Rosenberg gets wrong, he just does more advertising. I d I don't know that how that model sus sustains itself, but uh it seems to um When we look at the economy, to me There's a few things. One is that famous quote that I like so much. Don't determine whether it's you know June or July. Figure out is it June or December? And Even now, it's particularly hard to do for a number of reasons.
Number one, I don't know if you're familiar with this, but there's something going down on the border where people are sneaking in. You heard about this? Guess what? They're getting jobs. And then tell me where they go. Tell me where they go. And how and who how how are they counted?'Cause I know where they show up. You see that's exactly. I don't know.
I know they show up in the employment number that the BLS puts out and they say there's this, there's a hard number. Immigrant or let's call them illegal alien employment. That number, that, that number has grown 60%. Native American employment grown 0%. So you have people coming over the border, they're going to work. Let's add them as workers. Employment is up. And and tell me how do you seasonally adjust?
You used to be able to, you can't anymore. Yeah. Well I I guess in the summer there's less cause it's hot. Although Saudi Arabia would disprove that theory. Um yeah, when it's hot, get out of the sun. Um, so there's that. That number two, there is uh and this is something you pointed out. People are now getting interest on accounts that they didn't use to get interest on. And it's affecting consumer spending. So now we have a change in the number of people.
who are available for employment. So the labor pool is getting bigger, which is good. We need it. people are earning more money on their cash. so they can spend it, which is good for the economy. Okay. Then, you know, Dr. Zervos has had had a whole um discussion point about the size of the Fed's balance sheet. And the balance sheet's been getting smaller. And that's draining money from the system, but they're not going to
you know, uh let the system uh decline as much as or or as quickly as before. The funds rate has moved, but not Just the funds rate, the forward rate is you know, they got ten eases priced in, the no eases priced in, so two hundred points of it's crazy. So how do you how do you make a logical investment decision when you have all of these moving parts. Well The fact of the matter is We are in a unique
period of time where the three month bill yields, I don't know, five, five and a half percent, something like that. I can bring it up here quickly, I think. Um, probably not. It's somewhere on my computer. I've kind of stopped looking at it because I'm one a one year is five five percent. So it's gotta be higher than a one. You know, what five point two, five point three, whatever it is. Yeah.
220, 221, whatever it takes. So the the um Yeah, the the three-month bill is a uh something around uh 470 is Yeah. So you can do nothing. And remember, to be flat is a position two, right? And uh you you can sit and wait. Now It's not a lot of fun. I like writing tickets as much as the next guy. But I I I'm content to to chill and wait and see what happens. Uh But that's not the way the system is geared. The system is geared towards
you know, churn them and burn'em and not own Nvidia. How do you not own Nvidia? How do you right? And then you look at Nvidia and Apple and Microsoft. and Amazon, I'm sure I'm missing something. But I think historically when you get very high concentration of the market in one area that that portends bad things are ahead. Even the um The uh great writer Kevin Muir, I think in his last miss of his finally accepted our.
policy of moving to cash, which uh again ratifies uh our statement over a long enough time horizon everyone comes to agree with old chestnut. So yeah,'cause if you've had NVIDIA for like Fuck, if you bought it three months ago or six months ago, don't be greedy. Like y you've gone up three hundred percent or something and or if you've had it for a year.
Like how how could you sit there comfortably and be like, Ah, it's still going up. It's still going up. Now it's just wait for it to fall the wheels fall off to me. If I see another another chart comparing it to Cisco, okay, you're gonna I mean Well, generally they say they don't ring a bell at the high. Now, when you see a guy signing a girl's boob because she wants his autograph. I mean, I was
That's been the only red flag that I've I've been looking for red flags. That's the only one I could find. I I don't know that you need a lot of them if you see them. What's next? Sign my ass. I don't I don't I don't know. Um but the the the salient point and I would invite our listeners Peruse and Google and find for yourself examples of AI that is in use today that is producing revenue. And you know, look
comes up with an idea, build a car on a battery. Well, you know, you're not producing revenues day one, okay? But this ain't building a car. This is software. McDonald's McDonald's took it out. McDonald's has already pulled their AI ordering thing. They had an order where they they went to No humans. We're gonna put the AI thing in the thing and they ran it for X amount of months and they said, Uh uh, we're going back to a person at the drive through window. Yeah, the AI
Yeah. Interesting to me you say that because you will recall we tried AI. 30 years ago at Deutsche Bank merely saying buy 10, 5 years, 25 plus account GBAS6. And by the time you set it, you could have already typed it in. Okay. So We we wanted to talk a little bit about restaurants, remember? And and and so I can very suavely uh shift the conversation. So we had dinner, family dinner, uh at uh Danielle in New York City, which is one of the iconic um
You know, cloth, tablecloth, very attentive service, full offered side. Um Daniel Bull Boulay or something? Is that Daniel Boulet's place? Whose place? Cảm ơn các bạn đã theo dõi và hẹn gặp lại So the Sachs family has had a history of every couple of years putting on our, you know. or go to church clothes and go to a fine New York restaurant and and we manage for the in this case three hours. Um to get along without any fight.
And um given it was Father's Day and the my daughters are not little girls anymore, they're they're women and you know we we it was a it was a lovely time. Except it became clear to me The the era of the three hour dining experience, I I think it's over. I I just don't I I don't know about you, but I don't wanna sit that long um You know, as good as the food is. You've got an hour and twenty minutes, dude. You were there for three?
Yeah, but I I put on compression socks because if you go for a walk. Like I gotta imagine Oh, I gotta yeah, I had to get up and go for a walk. Literally, I got up, I w I went for I I can't yeah. And and you know, part of that was used to be ADHD. Now it's just old. It's like Excuse me while I go for my mid dinner walk. Yeah, no, it's fine. So we had um uh someone join us for dinner, which was lovely experience.
And um this person, very, very bright. Go drink some water. Drink some water. Go drink go drink your water. You got water nearby? You sound like Tom White. I think it's these allergies. Yeah, yeah, yeah. The pollen. Pollen. So this uh uh person is an analyst at Edge Fund. regular listener who kind of talked about the math hedge funds. No, we get along very well. And um I never realized this. You're the younger generation, but apparently
Um, for these analysts, and a number of them have died recently, as as you've seen in the paper, using a mouse is no longer quick enough. Do you know this? So I've never been officially or unofficially trained in the use of XL. Yeah. Okay. In fact, once a month when mine blows up, I have to send it off to my daughter to repair it. But uh this young analyst was telling me how when they're training them.
They make them turn the mouse upside down and leave it on the desk because there's all these shortcuts you can use on XL with the keyboard. And I'm thinking, Information. Yeah, yeah. Control alt delete is what I got. Uh but yeah, dude, I don't hit that one. Yeah, dude, there's like there's social media accounts that is like the XL tip of the day, like XL shortcut of the day. Dude, there's competitions for XL. It's crazy. Oh my god. And and so apparently
Even XL is looked down upon now. Like if you're like the real deal, you're just you're just coding. Yeah. I got, you know what? It's it's time. So the the good news, which you know, but um My oldest daughter is expecting so uh old chestnut. in several weeks will be a grandfather and finally a job I think I'm qualified for. So I'm very based on what?
Based on what? What are you qualified to grandfather? You're you're you're nothing but red flags. No, I'm the guy that they say, look, go sit over there. And and amuse yourself until we need someone to run to the grocery store and and and and that's that's my job. Okay. So Can we just stop for a second?'Cause this for the listener, for anyone that's sat here for four years now, okay. M go let me tell the story. MB's oldest daughter, Lisa, okay, who lives in Canada.
Okay, a foreign nation, a miles away. She's left the reservation, okay. Um She's pregnant. Right. Do you wanna expand on that? Do you wanna well can I tell the story or no? I I think we'll just leave it at that. Okay, fine. I'd like to get security clearance. Yeah, okay. But she did uh She did announce her retirement and the head of the company wrote a very nice letter. uh wishing her well in the next phase of life and mentioning some of the uh achievements sh she had uh done there where I think
She had uh acquired several companies. Uh you know, worth over I don't know five hundred million dollars, this or that. I I I was uh uh they were a little remiss in mentioning she had been uh Gotten her series seven. Uh oh, I didn't see that. Yeah, yeah. She uh had received her series seven. Accredation, and she had been a healthcare analyst at a major Wall Street firm.
All right, let me read let me read it. Today I would like to announce the retirement of Lisa Semple, Chief Investment Officer. Lisa has been with Brandt for twelve years after moving to Regina from New York City. Lisa started as a financial analyst in our newly created investments department and played a key role in our continued growth. She laid out the foundation for all that our investment team does today to grow, strengthen and integrate new business into the brand family.
Throughout her time, Lisa's impact has been significant, including playing the leading role of fourteen new business acquisitions and integrations. 500 million of new property acquisitions, the reorganization and growth of our property management company, and the creation of brand travel and aviation. Yeah. Uh-huh. Yeah. Yeah.
Lisa's made the decision to stop to step into the next exciting chapter of her life as a mother, raising the next generation of the simple family. She was told she'd never have kids, right? Yeah, she was told she so that's why it's a big deal for her for me and MB because when we started this show and I had my kid.
I can remember you being like, I'm so happy for you and that little twinkle of of it's not gonna happen for Lisa. And now we're sitting here and it's gonna happen. So like the fact that It was said zero chance. And now we're here with what six weeks to go or six weeks to go. We've kept a low on this for the whole time, folks. Um, so we might take some time off when the grandkids are here. Uh the grandkid is here, you know. It's gonna be uh
It's gonna be an exciting summer. What is uh so we got six weeks? We had six weeks, so it's like any day. Yeah. So we're on hot standby. Yeah. So there's a dual purpose here. You know, we like getting a an outpost up in Canada in case things really go south here. Um we can hide in their basement. Okay. Which is what I pretty much do when I'm up there anyway.
Well the the not ironic, but the poignant moment here was I would have told you this, but When I was in college and I wanted to trade, I was more in the arena of thinking I was going to be trading agricultural products. grains, beans. And I would kind of picture Cheryl and I living in on uh on a nice kind of house on a farm and um
You know, that's where you know, my daughter and husband live and and so I'm I'm really looking forward to that. I I'm not looking forward to the black fly season up there, which is stop. You'll deal with No, I'm it'll be fine. It'll be but yeah, I'm very I'm very excited. It's it's one of those things that happen in normal people's lives that makes them gives them a chance to reflect back and look at the the good things Very happy.
Good. So read you got two more books you got what a couple you got three more weeks to read your book. So enough with the World War Two shit. Could you read like Grandfathering one oh one so you can contribute some updated knowledge other than your Fucking archaic. Don't let your kids sleep with them, you fucking caveman. Okay. Can you please get like some modern literature rather than the battle of the bulge and do like
do like organic holistic parenting, okay. Something to contribute because like I told Lisa, her sisters are totally useless in this field, okay. So we're gonna rely on you and Cheryl. Okay, I I trust Cheryl, but you're off to a rough start with don't let him sleep in your bed. Yeah. Okay. Hey, I took a class. That's what they said. You took a class. You know, so my plan is I've already created a list of movies to watch with the kids. You know, The Blair Witch Project.
Rice. Nightmare on Elm Street. Nightmare on Elm Street seven. Oh scary movie. Did you ever see that one? Oh. Oh yeah, that's the Bruce Willis one? No, it's please. No, no, that's the Sixth Sense. Oh, sorry. Oh Brad Pitt, right? Yeah. I I um I watched that one at home alone one night when we had just gotten the Dolby surround sound. Oh good. That was nightmarish. Yeah. Locking the door when it was over. So I don't know, what else you got going on? Anything good?
Um no dude, I've been read Torsten Slock pissed me off this week. Um he's all over the place. He's gonna tell me that the UMish survey, fine like it's late breaking news that there's some people in the economy that are slightly concerned. Okay, I don't like but here's what here Jay Powell is not going to crash the economy before the election. You're gonna it's gonna be like this until the election, right? He's not you think they cut a rate before the election?
I don't think they they should cut the rates. Bingo. Whether they do or not, I don't know. But you know, as you've said, and now that we've been dining out a bit more, you know, the prices are higher. There's no There's no if, ands, or buts. Yeah, I had said at various points different people have different inflation levels, right? I mean if broccoli doubles.
for some day and maybe a disaster for me I it it's not a meaningful fig figure, right? But we go to restaurants with some more regularity now. Um And the you can't get in and out of a restaurant here. For less than for two people less than a hundred bucks. Oh it I was gonna say if you've got four at Danielle, you're at like a thousand dollars. It's probably three hundred. Oh I'm not talking about I don't I don't Danielle might have been uh Yeah, two. I know what it was. Yeah.
As long as a couple of grand. Yeah, as long as you didn't leave him a five hundred dollar tip like you sometimes do. Um I mean I might I might have because on the way out he said um Here's a couple baseball hats for you and your for you and your son. Plus one was a young man. I'm like, well, you know, I as I said, which I always do, my wife wasn't able to bear me any male children. I I find that one particularly amusing.
Yeah, I'm sure she does too. I think well, as Cheryl said recently, she's heard the stories before. Yeah, I got it. I got it. I've heard it. Yeah, honey. Yeah, honey. Okay. Um I've ultimately come not that you've asked But two things. One is I've co come to ultimately despise this fucking Tesla car. Yeah. We know. Show loves it. Loves it. Greatest car ever. This thing. Fucking nuke it. What's your problem with it? It's terrible.
The door it didn't even get in the fucking Yeah, right. Before we get in, it's a problem. Yeah, yeah. Okay. You know, no disrespect, but when you have a car designed by someone who's autistic, yeah. Not they're not thinking about make the user experience. But that's gonna be a robotaxi. Imagine imagine a taxi in Manhattan. Imagine you hail a yellow cab. And a yellow Tesla pulls up and I and I gotta knock on the window to get the guy to open the back door.
Robo taxi. I actually the way I see that playing down is you kind of lying back in the rear seat and just kicking the fucking window out. That's how I see that playing out. Yeah. No, I I I'm not a big believer in the robo stuff. I I guess it'll happen. It comes down to a question of liability. So let's say the car is coming and there's a car coming at you. So if you don't do something, you're going to get hit. So you gotta make a turn. Now all of a sudden the car sees two people.
So you're either gonna get hit by a car or you're gonna hit two people. Yep. What do you do? I I don't know. I mean w thank god we have artificial intelligence to do a background shock. on who the two people are and who's driving the taxi, run the probability of the taxi guy getting hurt. plus the return on capital change because of the damaged car versus the liability of killing two innocent people who are doing nothing but crossing the street. Yeah.
What's your problem with the Tesla? What what's why did it why why did it bother you this week? Why is it only coming to a head now? We've we've known this for a long time that that I've been driving a little less um You know, at night you will unfortunately find this uh you get a little older it's a little harder to see and um Cheryl's better. Plus I think the real story the real stor c come close. The real story is uh Cheryl typically doesn't drink at dinner and I'm
Usually gummied up by that time. So it's a it's a defense mechanism. I got it. Oh, that that's between us though, okay. Um so I guess the one thing I'm looking forward to is the cage match Thursday night. between uh President Trump and President Biden. I would love to see what the odds are.
That Biden can stand up for ninety minutes. Oh, they're gonna have him oh, he's resting now. Trust me, he's gonna be s he's sitting from now until Thursday. Okay. Then you th you thought Lance was on a regimen for the tour? Okay, they're gonna put Biden on the good stuff this week.
All right, he's gonna be glowing. He's gonna they they're gonna give him the Adderall, the Ritalin. Okay, he's gonna be all loaded up. He's gonna be Adderall and Ritalin. Of course not. Snorted. I don't know how they work, you know.
Um I think he'll be I think is he'll be sharp as a razor for the beginning. You know, we'll see how it comes in the Well see that's the thing. It is like my Pakistani coach used to tell me, it doesn't matter whether you win the first game, it's whether you win the fifteenth game. Dude, speaking of long enough with the time horizon and old chestnut, did you see one of your favorite people was mentioned as a possible VP for Trump, Condoleezza Rice? No, I didn't see that. I saw that.
From unserious outlets. But I but but I saw that whispered because he's played I I don't th he hasn't named yet, but that to me I couldn't reconc I couldn't reconcile it'cause there's so polar opposite of of everything. I thought first of all. To me she's always gonna be Candy. Candy, right, yeah, I know. She would be uh Vice President for Trump? That's what I saw. I saw I again, I I think it w it possibly was an unserious outlet that that mentioned that. Um
I don't know. She's a very talented lady. Imagine he did that though. Imagine he was like, yeah, this is gonna be my number two. That would that would make him a serio that would that would lend seriousness to his Cabinet administration. The g the gal from the United Nations who we like, what's what was her n I forget her name. UN from the United Nations. Yeah, she was ambassador to the United Nations. I don't know. Not Nikki Haley. Yeah, Nikki Haley. I you like her. Oh you don't like her?
Okay. Well I I like her because She is well spoken. I I'm to be honest with you, I'm not terribly familiar with her politics, but these days I I you know you're not gonna find anyone that you know. It would be very appropriate to give a woman of a high post in government. So as as you were making fun of me for my uh analysis of the second world war. So, you know, MacArthur was basically in charge of Japan, right, after the war. One of the first things he did was he made sure women got the vote.
because women are less likely to be in favor of war. Make fun of me if you will. But the thousands of hours that I dedicate to this podcast Okay. Finally has yielded some fruit. The best Mc MacArthur tidbit I I I thought was interesting was after the war, I think he immediately made the rule for US soldiers to stop disparaging and saying anything racist against The Japanese he was like that shit ends now and I'm serious about it. I I'm pretty sure. Yeah. No, he you
I won't go into it now. We can dedicate the whole next week's episode to it, but reading about this stuff, why I'm so committed to it is I have a f uh uh a love of the decision-making process. Whether it's you know, a path through a maze. or just how do you get the right answer? How do you find an asymmetrical trade? And the thing about the war war is it's the ultimate Test right, your society is dependent on the outcome of it, and so you have Everyone is in theory working towards the same goal.
yet you have, you know, the the fog of war, right? You look back at World War Two and it's like, Oh yeah, it was it's obvious. It's gonna be America and Great Britain. and then f you know, come and rescue and help France and and the French, they don't fight and and and you start to see the history of things and you understand why the French had an attitude.
about the wards'cause they fucking got destroyed in World War One or You know, the whole bickering between the Americans and the British about where the attack was going to be and then the generals, whether it was Montgomery or Patton. to get the first one to uh Monte Cassino or Sicily, you know, and just these men who are managing huge armies, you know, trying to get the best press. You know, or even that the famous MacArthur line like to the Philippines, like I shall return. That was a huge.
comment because it was so filled with counter messages. Uh uh one thing if I if I had this wrong, uh forgive me. But MacArthur was told to defend the Philippines to the death. Yeah, that makes sense. And by the way, we have no nothing to send you. Meanwhile, they're sending humanitarian supplies to help the people in Italy. So MacArthur gets wind of this and he starts commandeering stuff from other units, and he makes Stalin aware that.
Maybe you have some interest in coming in here with me. So now you have a general negotiating above the president of the United States. I don't know. I I think that that is arcane history. Yeah. You know, those who don't learn history are doomed to watch other people repeat it. And uh so with that I Think uh I don't know. What else? I'm gonna send you some some grandfathering books, okay? It's enough with the world. It's enough with MacArthur and Eisenhower.
Anthony will be back soon, Anthony. We need you back quick, okay? I need some more Anthony'cause'cause Doctor Slock, I mean Doc Slock, I love you. You you s you were great. You Doc Slock did thirty minutes on Bloomberg this week. Um and he's obvious I mean, he's the best. I mean, he's the best of the best. Um
But yeah, I would like a little bit more of a of a theme to the to the daily emails. Um y sometimes they're a little bit scatter shot, you know. I wanna know it's it's tough for me to read his uh you know, to to read his vibe, you know. And and here at IBWOC we trade on the vibes. The vibes are very important. Um and it's tough to get a vibe read on Doc Slock from the emails. But um yeah, we'll see.
Patience, young man, there will be an opportunity. We just need to be prepared. And maybe the opportunity would be to short Nvidia, although I you know how I feel about shorting things. A couple of people I know that are very talented have turned to the bear side and uh we'll see. A listener sent me a 30 minute long video this week. A long video that's on YouTube making the rounds.
Of a sh some sort of NVIDIA shenanigans that if you're in NVIDIA short I'll s I'll send the video and you can you can Yeah, there was something about there was I I figured it was just a bullshit rumor, but there was some sort of scam. Involving the sales and earnings.
Yes. There's a s yeah, I didn't watch it. It's twenty it was twenty-eight minutes and I got, you know, my kid, you know, doing cannonballs off of the couch onto my lap. So it's hard to watch the thirty minute video. But there's a there's whispers, there's some smoke.
Um and I I bet if you watch the video you could convince yourself. Um but yeah, I want to thank the listener. I believe his name was Dario. Dario, thank you for sending me that video. Um but yeah, if you want to dig deep into the video, by all means. Go ahead. Go ahead. Yeah. So again, we urge caution. Yeah, absolutely. All right, bye. Bye, Grandpa. I'll see you soon. Talk to you soon. Take care.