Santa Was Stuck in Traffic on The Hutch

Greetings and welcome to Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut. I'm Leah Mallon with more sex. How you doing, MB? Merry Christmas, my friend. Merry Christmas. Thank you very much. I'd like to uh I'd like to give it a shout out to our good friends at Zencaster. Um this is our third try, and this is not Zencaster. I thought I thought Zen was a word that meant peace and prosperity.

You know, we've we've resisted the urge to go to Lower Manhattan to the studio because it's tough to get you and me down there on a Friday. or a Saturday or a Sunday night at late notice. Um, but it's gonna come to that point where they're gonna require us to come downtown. I'm trying to get to uh to NBC sports to let them use us in Stanford. So if we can go to NBC Sports in Stanford at night, like midnight, you know, on a Sunday, I think that might be better than Zencaster, okay?

Yeah. So just from speaking from MB, not from Liam and MB, Zencaster. You can go stick your hat up your fucking ass. It's Christmas, Christmas Christmas, please. It's not Christmas in Australia. Okay. Right. Oh, let's let's get going. So you've had an ear infection. Yeah, it's been terrible. Um, yeah, it's been absolutely awful. I'm deaf in my left ear. Um, they gave me a amoxicillin.

It didn't work. I went back to the hospital, which by the way, Greenwich Hospital. What what more could you ask for? Um, maybe the proper diagnosis the first time, but um they gave me a sec they gave me a second far s stronger um antibiotic and a st and a diet and you know, like uh eardrops and everything. Um, but I wouldn't wish it upon my worst enemy. I'm not gonna complain here because it's not you're not a complainer.

But maybe it's just bizarre. It's bizarre. I've got a little bit of a wobble, my vertigo. Um, but anyway, anyway, it's Christmas and it's been a wonderful day. I saw my parents, my children were happy, my wife is happy, and I get to talk to you. Um I've I've there's nothing else I could really add. Okay, except proper diagnosis, which would have been CIPRO, I'm thinking. Exactly. Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Is that what they gave you? The second time. Yeah, of course. Of course.

Anyway, um it's been quite a week and not just in the markets. I I don't know, you've well you've been laid up. the paperwork and the back office stuff. I if if if the listeners don't mind, I'd like to run a through a few of these things with you to know what I've been dealing with and Why you've been sick. Please, by all means, get let's get us all caught up.

So Monday, the taster's choice people called and want to know why we're using Sanka. Come on. That's the brand. Sanka's the brand, okay? It no, but Taster's Choice was like the new version of Sanka, and they don't understand why. That doesn't get the laughs down at the villages like Senka does. Okay. I know, I know. And then Tuesday. The Cosby people called because they want to know why they're not getting their residuals when we're talking about jello. Oh geez.

I told him to put his pudding pop away and maybe we could talk. Christmas, thank you. Merry Christmas to all. And then the Bruhaha that got started with the platinum membership introduction. Yes, yes, indeed. Indeed, yes, yes. So I I I I can't believe what's going on. You would think there'd be some You know, joy in Mudville, but there there was mighty cases struck out. So the first First person who was introduced, Marty Molotoras, climbing partner of Old Chestnut, licensed AMGA mountain guide.

Who by the way is an emergency first responder in wilderness. You trust him with your life on the hill. Yeah, not only that, on 9-11, he was called to Manhattan in case they needed people to wrap down into the hole. Okay. So people want to know why, why, why Marty. Then there's Your friend from the New York Fire Department, S D N Y, right? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. And then uh

Jason Tullis, you know, obviously the world's best cycling coach. I was in a bar, I saw Jason Tullis kill three men with a pencil. Who does that? Got the mustache to prove it. Yeah. So we extended an invitation. to a woman because we started getting pushback because of you know white male lack of diversity and so i submitted our friends uh name and uh she was rejected uh by compliance unfortunately. I'll I'll have that private conversation with her and explain why. Okay. Um

It's the Costanza, it's not you, it's me kind of thing. But um so but just to just to make it clear. The platinum membership, relatives and employees of Old Chestnut, of Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut. Are not eligible for platinum memberships. Okay. Just want to get that on the table. So um

Anyway, we got had a lot of really good mail from fans this week. Yeah, yeah. Oh, let me say that because it's now it's the Christmas season and I've been very thankful um I've really been astounded that we've done a hundred of these shows, you and I. And I really want to thank the listeners. That have made us a part of their week, of their market commentary, who have allowed us. Into their home, into their ear. I know radio is very personal, and some of you guys have been with us since.

January of 21, I guess. So we've done 21, 22. If you look at our If you look at our cover photo on on Apple, you can see the market, I think, is at like 4350 and look at the date and think about where we've been and what we've talked about. and what's transpired and what more is said and what panned out and like what we've been right about and what we've been wrong about but i just want to thank the people that have sent those notes because i have just been

overwhelmed. I had no idea when we started this if this would be a hundred people, if no one would listen, if we'd do five shows and be like, all right, that was fun. Um We've done a hundred Something shows good ones, bad ones, but I think people have laughed, which is The really the most important thing that you've got to laugh at. You sat and had a chuckle with us.

But people, the stuff that people have learned, I don't want to go through the list, but people send me an email every single day about this and I think about this and more says that. And that just to me has been mission accomplished. And I feel so grateful for those people to let us.

to to hang out with us, to sit and talk for an hour every week. Um, it's really been special and it's meant a lot to me and Morris. So I just want to thank you guys for that. Yeah. And you too for putting up with this shit and talking to me every week, you know? It's one of the highlights of my week, which tells you how pathetic my life is. Um No, you're you're uh I tell you what, I I one of my favorite people. We could talk for hours and um

So I'm I'm sorry uh you're trapped over nice station zebra. Uh it's cold there, right? Oh it's terrible, dude. It's like bitter cold. You can't go outside cold. Yeah. So well I'm I'm glad we're in Arizona. I I I the big question is what took me so long to get my shit together and get the fuck out of Dodge. I don't I I don't know. You know, it's people are nice and yeah. You know, it's easy to get on. Yeah. Yeah, but in the sauna I wrote today, not just as an example.

It was sixty degrees. I rode outside in shorts and a in a s cycling jersey. I mean,'cause the sun's very hot. So I and uh I feel I'm feeling good'cause I've started some structure training again. And uh yeah, so things are um things are going good for me. I you know, some other people out there not not so good. Are you sleeping well? Are you sleeping well? Yeah, I sleep great. Okay. I've I've I've I've you know that

saying lips that touch liquor will never touch mine? Well, we've adapted adapted that here. Now it's every night it's half a gummy. And um Okay. What with what with the the MSG shows coming up on the twenty eighth through the thirty first? Yep. Traditionally, I won't watch or go to the thirty first. I'll spend it with Cheryl, but the rest of the nights I'm planning on going on a bender. Uh I think I I think I've earned it. I do too. I agree.

One of the uh one of the funny um notes we got was our our calls. the last few weeks have been so good, somebody thought we might be a member of the Pelosi trading team. And the first thing that hit me was just because I have young men running around in their underwear holding a hammer. Doesn't mean I'm part of that group. By the way. Let's just think about this for a minute. Please, please.

she's got some pretty serious security. One would I mean I I saw the manifest of one of her flights from white planes. So that's private information. This is this this is the speaker of the house. It's Christmas. If you and I drank half the alcohol that they ordered, we'd be dead. But but so here's this guy's in his 80s. Yeah yeah Paul Paul Pelosi, is that his name? So he's is he I I just this is from recollection.

There's a call to the police. The police show up. There's a man in his underwear and Paul Pelosi in his underwear. Right. And then the man hits Paul Pelosi in the head with a hammer. No that's the public police record that you're Yeah. So so I'm guessing if I was a fly in the room, Pelosi says to the guy, hit me in the fucking head with a hammer. It's my only way out of this. Or did she or did Nancy call it in?

I don't I mean look I I know we know how you remember you had that meeting with that guy with the with the nice you know that was five eight and five eight maybe Nancy you don't one might think that Nancy might be able to have some act stop we're we're not doing this on christmas okay stop stop stop stop there's no there's no there's that was monday and baseball that was monday let's go to tuesday can we go to tuesday please

Okay. So Tuesday I was texting with one of the listeners who I'm friendly with, and they're working on uh Wall Street bonuses. And the this guy has one of our friends' sons working for him. And the son's a young man, nice kid. And he's anxious about his bonus. And so I was talking to my friend. Did you tell him? Bonus this year is gonna be lump of coal. And my friend came back with

He said, you know, coal plus pressure equals diamonds. I said, that may well be, but I wouldn't go that route if I were you. Yeah, no kidding. So I noticed last year DJ Seller got paid$35 million. Um Ah, we'll see. You know, he'll probably, I I bet they nick him for a buck or two, you know. I mean, clearly he's earned at least 30, right? You you don't you don't agree that he's on the hot seat yet? You mean dead men walking? It depends who you ask. I mean, some people.

Uh, I think because the stock price has done so well, he's gonna hang in there. I go back to this fiduciary responsibility of presenting a proper public image. You know, uh there's a picture of him I was gonna post But uh I didn't get round to it. It's it's him. With the kids dancing in the background and he's got a fucking he's got a fucking geometric tattoo on the inside. Yeah. We know how well that worked out for Novograds. Please.

So um I I don't I I don't know. I I I'm shocked. I'm I'm shocked that uh but you know he he like most um What's the word? I want to say megalomaniacs. That's not exactly what I'm looking for. But most uh You know, rulers surround themselves by henchmen. To prevent them from being

Taken out and that's what I think. I've heard he's not yeah, I've heard that those those hit his those guys are numbered um and that those guys have might have turned against him. Um dude, I I I mean just uh I'm using the New York Post, which as you and I have said many times on this show. is the paper of record, but there's article by Charlie Gasparino last night, which is buried on Friday night before Christmas, but it was a lengthy article. Um

detailing some of the schisms inside Goldman. Um so it was it was an interesting read. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So that's just well, the the thing I would point out again is Traders generally get paid on formulas. And if you don't pay them, You this is what I would recommend, by the way. Um I'm not a lawyer uh and I don't uh purport to give people legal advice. I would just say, however, my experience having paid bonuses for multiple years, okay.

If you're a trader and your manager has given you an indication of a percentage that you're going to get paid, okay. 감사합니다. I would make the argument that that's a contract. The reason is because as your boss, he has apparent authority to commit the firm. Now, like I said, I'm not a lawyer. I know a contract has to have offer, acceptance, consideration. But by the way, one little trick very few people know is.

Nowadays When you go to work for a securities firm, you sign away your right to go to civil court. You agree to arbitration. And the Wall Street firms did that because they realized. arbitration is going to get a settlement that's going to be a manageable number. You could go to court and a jury could award somebody$500 million. And so uh that's one of those little, you know, little known codicil to the Faber, you know.

Uh so if I were a Goldman trader and they didn't pay me properly, I'd have a brief conversation with a headhunter. Then uh there's several firms out there. I know they're all looking for traders. I've had a number of people ask me if I know anyone that's looking. And you know, it's if they're coming to me, you know, they've scratched around a bit. Uh, interesting.

Of course, somebody with a more inflated ego might wonder if they're trying to suck old chestnut back in, but uh No, I've I've been out to pasture and uh I like pasture. But uh yeah, so if they screw the traders, they're just gonna go to Millennium or D.H. Shaw or uh Rokos or Bruven Howard or uh Any number, Citadel. I bet Citadel's looking for people. uh and that's just four or five so yeah yeah that's my advice and then you know uh then goldman won't be able to hire any traders because

Traders are a savvy bunch and when they see all the traders leaving, the first question is why? And it's because they got screwed on their bonus. Um I I would say uh One of the reasons for the success of Greenwich Capital generally and my group specifically was that management got paid last. So that's not what happens at Goldman. I don't, I wouldn't think. The board pays DJ Sal his 30 bucks.

And then they kind of fiddle around to figure out how to gobble up the rest of the 55% of earnings that they get to keep. So for me, the way it worked was we had revenues. They subtracted expenses and then my group got a percentage. And from that percentage, the first thing I did was I paid the non-revenue people. So the analysts, the assistants, those sorts of things. Yep, yep, yep. They got paid.

full full boat of their payout, which was 20%, which was highest in the industry, really. Okay. And then the balance came to me. So uh some years that was a good place to be, some years that wasn't a good place to be. 감사합니다. But the thing that made it work was I think people knew that MB wasn't getting any money till they got they got paid properly. So it really reinforced the team. spirit and work ethic and trust, which, you know, I've mentioned to you is so important.

To create a healthy trading environment. I is a youngster. before I I got to Greenwich I and I think y you know, well, you've got two kids and a wife and you and You know, I I had three kids. I I uh probably had a little more savings than you did, but I didn't have the golden ticket at that point. And uh for me bonus was

my virtually my entire compensation. And as the year went by, I I got more and more anxious about it. And the beauty of the Greenwich mine Субтитры сделал DimaTorzok Once you were there for a year or two and you realized they walked the walk, you didn't, at least for me, I I I didn't worry about it. And the anxiety and the psoriasis and the iral bowel syndrome and the headaches. Yeah, you and your fucking run away. Unbelievable. Yeah, I mean so anyway.

I don't know what got me here, but um I did have a few cute comments. Uh I'll try and keep them um apolitical, but you've noticed uh as we we Successfully predicted. Uh, Kathy Wood is self-imolated herself. And um uh Actually, it's funny I use that term because uh we I I I let me finish, then you can jump in. Our analysts just did the calculation. And her wealth destruction has now topped

The damage done to the city of Chicago by the cow that kicked over the lantern that set the city on fire. This is O'Leary. Dude, eviscerated. Um Dude, eviscerated, eviscerated. Dude, but like, but at least with fires, at least with the Chicago fire, you could rebuild.

And like remember Zervo said like what Zervo said a note e a coup months ago. Zervo said something about there's gonna be fire, but after the fire there'll be green shoots, okay? None of that applies to the arc okay i i like nothing more than someone losing money telling me i don't understand i mean it's it's It's it's like Cirque de Soleil for traders.

Dude, you you I they they lost me at robo taxi when robo taxi came up and they kept talking about robo taxi and bitcoin to a million that's when i had to leave you like I I started we started talking about it. That's when I was like robotaxis Bitcoin to a million. Like can we take these people seriously? And then they're like, oh well, we're gonna pack them, we're gonna pack the firm with like analysts that aren't traders. That was cool like from on the way up.

Yeah, you know, okay. There's the all there's all these things that I like that you've heard, you know. Don't confuse being smart with a bull market. You know, that kind that kind of thing. Rising tide carries all boats. You don't see who's naked until the tide goes out. But as I said before, and I will say again. I think she has a a diagnosable mental illness.

Uh it's some sort of uh personality disorder and uh you know narcissistic personality disorder. I don't I don't know what the DSM code is for that. I'll have to look it up. But she's crazy. She's she's liter she's literally crazy. And um i mean, who does this? Who tries to tell I mean, didn't they write a book? On this wasn't it called Don Quixote? Like, take Fiona out to Long Island Sound and tell her yell at the tide. Tell the tide, don't come in.

Yeah. I mean at what time at what point does it have to stop and the SEC is like you need to stop going on T V No No, no, no, they don't never. Never. It's gone the other way. That the guy I tell ya I like personally in the public persona I can't stand, Billy Ackman has become a major force in Twitter. That's cesspool. What's what's he got, he's got opinions about everything. Yeah. It's I can hear you.

Dude, that's why Twitter's great. I get access to that, dude. I love like what else am I doing on Friday night? I dude dude, like I said in my email, I was just about to go to bed. I was just about to go to bed. Bill logs on and has a seven paragraph tweet. about F SBF and S FTX, like correcting his prior 18 paragraph diatribe about the same topic. It like was equally comical.

Dude, I love it. I love it. I love it. How what where where else can I get that? Where else can I get that unfiltered access? uh you uh uh you know maybe just sit at home take some lsd and watch watch elephants on parade from dumbbell Please. I mean it's it's it's crazy. But what what I do think is funny. Funny and a little irritated is you'll notice all of these things we've been making fun of for year a year or two are coming true, right? And and one more, one more, one more.

Teller, teller. I was just gonna I was just gonna say. So I I have this friend, close friend, in the world of technology, he has a skill set that he's one of the five best guys in the world. Okay. And there's there's a very There's a very complicated set of protocols you need when you need 100% reliability and high-speed data transmission. And this guy is world. Okay. So one day, six months ago, he calls me up and he's trying to get me to defend.

or argue why Bitcoin's not the greatest thing. And he's talking about the SWIFT. I I mentioned this before, like the SWIFT, why do you gotta pay for the SWIFT? All all these things and I go through and I explain to them why you need it and reliability and and and you know since then hundreds of billions of dollars have been stolen.

uh from what I can tell, nearly a dollar from a bank has gone missing. Oh, zero but we've we've been pounding tether for months, right? So from my from my buddy, who I love to death. He sends me a video of some 30-year-old kid wearing like black pants, suspenders. Mr. Crypto talks every week about crypto. And now, now he's like, we're gonna have to talk about Tether. And I I just I I turned it off because like I I get it, right? But he's got two million downloads.

Because he's 30. I know. And and I and we're we're we're too old. Yeah, we're too old. Right, right, right. What did Mark Twain say? There's two times in a man's life when he knows everything, when he's twenty and when he's seventy. Oh really? That's good. Yeah, I'm not I'm not seventy yet, but I got I got something over.

So I've been doing a little work on the the uh website. Okay. Uh not not a lot of work'cause You know, I've been a little bit lazy and it's the holidays and festival of lights and stuff like that. But um in terms of talking about the market, just a little tease, because we'll get to that in the second half of today's show. Um I put up a chart which showed um uh liquidity indicators and uh earnings. And you will recall that many times I've said there's an 18 month

In the old days, there was an 18-month lag between tightening financial conditions and it's short. And this chart. Uh which was posted twenty three December, which I stole from uh Daily shot uh shows this graph perfectly. So if you look at where we're going, um I just I would say in one word, the south. Okay. So uh, you know, we urge caution. Uh I I you know we can talk about rates in a bit, but uh there's been a couple of things which

I didn't make any uh real notes because as as you know, we've tried three times to get this podcast up and we still don't know if it's gonna work. But um One thing is there's been a question about Why the consumer savings is so high, right? People keep talking about the gobs of cash and how it how it's how it's inconsistent with a historically low savings rate.

And remember when we talk about these statistics, I'll advise you, don't ever look, don't get hyper-focused on one statistic. Or if you're going to get hyper-focused on it, give it a few months. Okay. So uh reading the mainstream media, somebody pointed out that there's been eleven trillion dollars Worth of investment sales by John Q Public. Wow. That's gone that's gone into savings type account.

Now, uh, I read that on Bloomberg. I can't guarantee it, but I saw it. And so when you realize that much money went into the savings account. I I don't think people treat that money the same way they treat as the money in the demand account like regular savings, right? So that explains. why the consumers have a lot of cash and a very low savings rate. The savings is getting eaten up by inflation and the money is coming out of the market. We'll see where we go from here.

But uh, you know, we're still of the opinion that we've got at least one more rate hike to go. And I would imagine at that point, based on what Paul has said. that then they're gonna wait a month or two and and see which way the wind blows. Um I just don't see them relentlessly tightening uh Indefinitely. I I do think they are going to stop after this next twenty-five basis point hike.

And they're gonna wait a month or two and they're gonna be very clear about that. They're they're gonna say we we've hiked 500 basis points in a year, and by any measure it's is is quick a rate adjustment. is we we've seen in our lifetime. So after a year of tightening, for them to say we're now gonna s sit back for thirty days or sixty days and

see where we fall out. And if we need to get right back at it, we'll get right back at it. But it's a very uh plausible and prudent way for them for them to go. Um do they have to watch what the E C B does? Do they have to wait and see what the E C B does? Or can they act um in the the Fed? Mm-hmm. No, the the Fed the Fed's the one driving the bus. I

But you know, I think we watch what the ECB does because that's part of the global liquidity. And they're they're withdrawing liquidity, which you know you you've got X number of central banks and thousands of basis points of tightening, which are now, you know, if you believe this chart about tightening of financial conditions and forward earnings, you know. Uh there was an interview that you saw and sent to me, uh the guy Tepper. Yep. Yep.

Bright guy, successful guy. And and you know, I I I didn't really follow him very much, but I I I liked his approach, which I think is similar to us, which is like, let's just be simple about it. You got rates going up, earnings are going to go down. You you can't put the same multiple on stocks when the funds rate's five as you can when it's zero. And maybe that gets you to your SP number of 2500.

Jay's been saying they've been very clear about saying what they're going to do. Um that seemed to be, he stressed that over and over. He said, why would I think that they're going to do anything other than hike, wait, and see? So the it the one other thing with the data is there's this concept that there's a A million jobs floating around. that are missing. I you know, uh once again, let's throw that into the bucket of

Let's just wait and see how that thing plays out. But if the job numbers say stay strong, okay, that gives uh the Fed all the leeway in the world to keep leaning into things, keeping in mind. You know, I still think they're going to go 25 and stop, except If the jobless numbers explode while the inflation numbers reverse course. So let's say inflation starts rising and unemployment goes up. I I I'll think that they'll continue to tighten. Yeah. Yeah. Um but uh you know I'm

Just being open-minded about things. I mean, p position-wise, you know, we we got out of all our equities. I I do have exposure to long date immunis. And I'm a tiny bit apprehensive about that. Uh For a couple of reasons. Um one is as you know, the yield curve is severely. So the let's say the the two year notes four and a quarter and uh I might be able to actually find it here. Um if you give me a second. And the ten year note is a um Three seventy five.

Okay. So if we go into recession, the the curve is going to normalize. And the first thing that's going to happen is these two you nodes. are going to drop uh I don't know how much, but you know, it could be they could take them to three and a half percent, which is seventy-five basis points ish from here. What worries me about my munis is Part of the steeping of the curve isn't going to come just from the two-Uno yields dropping. I think these back-end rates might.

go up, which would be bad for owners of longpaper. Now, for me, unlevered on a non-mark-to-market basis, I mean the stuff I bought yields over six percent. And so uh triple tax free. Uh uh you know, and like I said, if the marks look bad, I'll just change them so Cheryl won't find out. You know, you c you've been a while, you learn a few tricks. Right, right, right, exactly. Um yeah, so that that's what hesitates me because uh

You know, it's hard to know what the yield curve is going to look like when we come out of this. Um I don't See us going back to the world of 1% anytime soon. Uh so you know to get a two-year note in the mid-threes, low threes. 10 unotes in the low fours pretty comfortably. And so that would be, you know, not that far from here, but uh 25, 50 basis points from here. Um

Not not a huge move, but but I I think that's that's plausible. Okay. But uh I I would like to get back into the equities. I really would, but you know, I I I don't think I don't think we've seen it played out yet and once again Dr. Harris. You know, as said he at least last we spoke, he doesn't think the low is in and uh um

You know, I I mean uh we still have a few messes to clean up. I I think as you mentioned, tether is a tremendous fraud that will ripple through. I don't want to say the financial markets because it it ain't affecting you and me. I mean Kathy Wood? Yeah. Yeah. Good night, Irene. Um that thing's, you know, they'll take that stuff out and shoot it. Tether's the nail in the coffin for the whole thing. Everything burns down with tether.

Right. That's the nail in the coffin for crypto. Yeah. I I'm a little bit enamored. I mean, we've said this before. I want to repeat it. Not gonna try and predict The price of Bitcoin, I don't give a fuck. It's like be it's a beanie baby. It's a hula hoop. Right. You know, it's like whatever. But um so you got this little thing going on with the FTX, which I I'm I'm I'm literally Tick tickled pink by this thing. The farce is you peel back the onion. First of all, kudos to Larry Davis.

Have you watched his commercial? Of course. Yeah, what what do you think of this, FTX? Case dismissed. Dude, it's like it's like too good to be true. It's almost too good to be true, dude. The the I don't even know their names. Whatever. Sam. Okay. This is an interesting web you see going on. So his ex-girlfriend and the chief operating officer. Flipped on them okay. So they this is how naive these people are. Okay, you think

You go to jail and you're a rat. I mean, I've never been in jail. I've never even I've never even put portrayed a prisoner in jail. But from what I hear and read, you know, um, do I did I ever tell you Did I ever tell you one of the books Amazon recommended for me? I told Big Edison. It was called How to Survive and Thrive in Jail. Jeez. So I got it. Yeah, I bought it. I did. I bought it. I bought it. I read it. It was, it's a lot of useful information. But

But but some of it's common sense. For instance, you know, you went to college, you in a fraternity? Yes. So you're familiar with the term courtesy flush, right? They they make a point of that. That's a big deal. But the one of the things they say is like, don't be a rat. Yeah. Yeah. Number one. Probably. Yeah. Okay. Okay. So you got you got that gal. And the COO. Dude, they dropped the charges. Like don't I don't think they're going to jail. Okay. Prediction? Prediction? 18 months

Dead. Stop, please. No. No way. No way. Okay. I think these are dude. Okay. You don't I mean, no, seriously. What do you what do you let's just say hypothetically, hypothetically, some person, generic person. put all their money in crypto and they're they're walking down West Broadway. Like two or three years ago. There were was a uh like three or four.

People walking West Broadway like two in the morning. Kind of near where this gal went and got her coffee that has the rats underneath it. Yeah. And s and some some guy comes up to them and pulls a gun. And says, Give me your wallet. And she's like, What are you gonna do? Shoot me? And he shot her right in the fucking head and killed her. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So so um I i is this woman walking down the street? Someone's I'd say something.

Yeah. I'd I'd go up there and I'd introduce myself. Please. Wouldn't what what wouldn't no, seriously. What what wouldn't you just like to say hey? Congratulations on being a criminal and ratting on your friend. Dude, she must feel really safe. She was strolling around downtown. Um, she must y yeah, I I I don't know. The whole thing, dude, the whole thing is surreal. The whole thing is surreal. Okay. Um, the fact that that like

If you watch the mainstream news, you're like, oh,$250 million bail. Okay. They've apprehended this fraudster criminal. Um, you know, traffic and weather at at at eleven. Um But then like you look at the bail and they're like, all right, well, they really just put his mom's house up as collateral and yeah, and it's an appearance ticket, and yeah, he's not a flight risk. Um, but the fact that it The whole thing is just surreal. All right. The fact that he calmly saw shade through JFK.

Shoes off unbothered in first class. Okay. It's just it's it's really just bizarre, man. And it it takes an awkward turn and I hate to bring this up, but you know, as a member of the fourth estate, guys like you and I have an obligation. And uh I forgot who mentioned this to me. I think it was one of my friends, one of my former colleagues. So um in the 50s. Stanford University ran a psychological experiment. Do you know about this? No.

So th this is insane, literally insane. They ran a psychological experiment to see how humans behave. when they had authority over other humans. So they took a bunch of students and they made half of them prisoners and they made the other half jailers. And after six days, okay, the jailers were beaten the shit. out of the students. They had to call the whole thing off. It turned it, okay. So that's Stanford 1950. You fast forward to Elizabeth Holmes. Okay.

And now this is where it gets really interesting. The collateral. So I only vaguely know how this works from watching movies. Um, so 250 million. fail. He's only gotta come up with ten percent. Now that's still a lot of money. It's twenty five million dollars. He's broke. Whatever. Somehow They allow his parents to post their house is collateral. Except I think there's a chance the house is not owned by them. It's owned by

Stanford University. Amazing. Imagine that. So so we've come full circle. So I think that uh Maybe um maybe the FBI needs to investigate what's going on there.'Cause didn't you tell me the the president? Somebody told me the president of Stanford's being investigated for For some kind of illegitimacy.

Do do you care to speak on that or was should we read that? No, I've l I've linked it to um I I've linked it on Twitter, but yeah, that he's uh like I said it last week, he's uh he's been his his work his some something he signed off on something that didn't It didn't pan out. Um

But yeah, fish the fish rots from the head down. Um and their list of alumni crooks lately. Dude, did you see the father? Like how bizarre you talk about how bizarre it is. The father one of the courses he's teaches is like the prisoner dilemma. Um the whole thing. But by the way, just just to be fair, okay, the prisoner dilemma is it's an excellent thought experiment. So I I won't go through it now, but you should look into that because that's exactly what went on between

The kid and the two other people. So the prisoner's dilemma is there's two of you. And you're not allowed to talk. And so if you say nothing and the other guy says nothing, you both get like a month in jail. If you both rat on the other guy, then you go six months in jail. And if yeah, you you see what I'm saying? So there's a matrix. And it it's a it's a famous I think it's pronounced Gadankin or thought experiment. But prisoner's dilemma is is uh

It's a legitimate topic up there with the two generals problems. Yeah. Uh Brownian motion, all these things that you and I discuss, you know, between between commercials.

You know, um one problem uh with this format that we're using is I can't begin to tell you how long we've been talking for. I think if if I'm if I'm I think we're at about fifty minutes. I think we're at five zero fifty minutes according to my math. Um what else you got? What else you got? Well I haven't I haven't seen the red light go on, meaning time to close. So I I I I had a Uh you know, I had a had a joke. Go ahead, please. By all means. By all means.

Wife goes into the pharmacist's office or shop and says, I'd like eight ounces of arsenic, please. And the pharmacist says, What are you gonna do with that? And she says, I'm gonna give it to my husband and I'm gonna kill him. And the pharmacist is like, Well I can't do that. I'd be an accessory to murder. And she opens her purse and she takes out a picture. of her husband having sex with the pharmacist's wife. And the pharmacist says, you didn't say you had a prescription. Please.

Who have you been going out to dinner with that you've been working on these with? I I I got one more. I got one more. If you can get if you if you can give me a second, I can find it's a It's a Christmas joke. It's a nice it's a nice joke. Okay, okay So the so they're at the last summer. Jesus says, my disciples, one of you will betray me. Matthew says, is it me, Jesus? No, Matthew, it's not you.

John asks, is it me, Jesus? No, it is not you, John. Judas asks, is it me, Jesus? Jesus replies, is it me, Jesus? It's... Wow. I don't know. I thought it's funny. It was, yeah. Yeah, yeah. So um I I don't know if you realize this. This is this true. Cheryl and I were in Israel. Uh when was it November? Yeah. Yes, yes, yes. So we actually with with our friends Turgot and Rebecca, we actually made the pilgrimage. From um Jerusalem.

To Bethlehem. Nice. The the the difference was Cheryl wasn't pregnant. Yep. And we took a Mercedes sedan. We didn't take a camel. There was room at the inn for the Saxons. Not only was there room in the inn For a few extra bucks, we got to cut the line. Yeah. So I I saw where the f the father of uh your religion was born. That's nice.

I went I I went skiing this weekend and you know you can do that with your with your lift ticket now. They give you the opportunity you can pay to skip the line. It's really tri it's trickled down to skiing. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. It's amazing. It's amazing. Sure. Doesn't that make sense? Yeah, it's fantastic. It's brilliant. Yeah. It's incredible.

I just too many people do that. There's too many people there's too many people on the mountain and there's people that are happy to do it and it makes sense. Yeah. Yeah. Unbelievable. I never realized if you bought a day lift ticket and you finished early, they'd buy it back from

Dude, I didn't believe that until I read it with my own eyes just recently. Yeah, by like ten o'clock, ten thirty, though it can be like, Yeah, you can use it again tomorrow. You're not happy or like you didn't like your skin. Yeah. What guys were doing was they'd show up and they'd buy the lift tick the day lift ticket from the people that were cutting out early. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, you know, everyone's got a plan. So um

I don't know. Uh what are you looking for? What are you looking for towards ahead? What are you looking towards um this forthcoming week? Is this a quiet week in between with New Year's coming, nothing going on? I don't see a lot going on. I mean, the markets I haven't been watching them too closely, but the little bits and pieces I've seen incredibly thin and uh you know I wouldn't

I I don't like market orders in the first place. But uh you know, if you're this would actually be if you're looking to kill some time, this would be a fun market to day trade in because you could put some resting bids and offers. And stuff's flipping all over the place. So you could get hit on the bid. 20 minutes later, you get lifted on the offer. Um, you know, back when I was a youngster, before I figured out to watch movies all day, that's that's what I would do.

We don't recommend that to those viewers at home. These are trained professionals. And uh Does anybody care about the Trump taxes? No, no. No. I No, so like what what is that a surprise? Isn't nobody's surprised by those numbers, right? Well, I I I would make two comments because I have, again, modest training in accounting. Um I I don't have a dog in the hunt politically, but everyone's making noise about the personal expenses and private planes and that that forget it. Nothing.

The two things that caught my eye, and these could be big, okay, charitable contributions that have not been substantiated. And finally, uh this is surprising to me. I think I read he claimed a$23 million deduction for an easement on a piece of his land. And depending on how that got arrived at. That could be an issue. So between those two things. Yeah. You want to talk about that? But like that's been debated at length, that parcel of land, right?

Right in the the Gimbals Lard goes right around it. That's that piece of land right that they were It's in Westchester. Yeah, it's in Western. It's right there on Westchester on 128 that he told that he was like, it's worth this. And and Newcastle, North Castle was like, uh-uh, it's this. And and and if you really want to split hairs, it's this, yeah.

Yeah, that's a very, very interesting story. And there's a couple of good articles about it. But now that that that if those documents are accurate and that caught your eye, yes, dude, that's been Yeah. So so the difference between the two is. If he picked an easement number and that number's wrong, I think there'd be penalties and fines. Okay. If he claimed shitle contributions and he made it up, that's jail.

So yeah, we'll see we'll see what happens. So now um I'm gonna hope as we say goodbye, the magic of Christmas, this whole thing will actually have been recorded. And we're gonna be able to find a way to give it to our Uh'cause I don't know what the fuck I'm doing with this thing. Let me let me plug the charity for my mother. Okay. Please. Yes. Yes. All right. My mother sent me an email. All right. This is my mother. Um

She goes to Ireland four or five times a year. She has friends in Ireland over on the West Coast. One of the people whose houses she stays at, they travel there frequently. The kid is diagnosed with cancer, okay? They take the kid's leg off. They think that'll cure it. It doesn't. The cancer is terminal. All right. The kid knows he's going to die. I'm just, I'm just going to do this quickly. All right. They're doing a charity. All right.

The inside baseball people showed up for Anthony's charity last year in in numbers. All right. So I'll post the link on Twitter. All right. And if you guys can give whatever it is to this little charity in Ireland, all right, I'm gonna put the link up. All right, it's called the Sheep's Head Charity Tractor Run. All right. Whatever it is, the kid's alive, all right.

He knows that he's not gonna make it. All right. My mother asked me to do this. So I'm asking those listeners, whoever those 2,000 people are that listen every week and send emails. I'm gonna post the link. Just put I-B-W-O-C in the tag. You don't have to put your name or anything. If you want to put your name, awesome. All right. I'll send you a personal thank you note.

But just kick some money into that for Christmas. All right. Thank you guys. I thanked you already for listening for a hundred shows. Do that for me. Thank you, Morris, for doing this. All right. I really appreciate it. 105 shows. Are we doing a New Year's show? What's next weekend? Let's look at the calendar here. 25th. What? Money, money, money never sleeps. Oh, I know. I know. I don't I don't know. Do you think I I don't think I think we have an obligation.

Family comes first, so we'll see what what you think is best. But first of all, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that I didn't just waste an hour of your time. No, no, no, no. This has been fantastic. says it's I mean it says it's recorded so if you hit stop and save we're good all right and we'll see you we'll see you next week So I'm gonna hit stop and then you don't do anything and then we'll we'll talk. Okay. Take care. Merry Christmas. Cheers. Bye.