Return On Investment or Return Of Investment?

Greetings and welcome to Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut. I'm Liam Allen with my friend Morris Sacks. How you doing, MB? I'm doing great, bud, and it's terrific to see you. A happy uh post Father's Day. And uh happy uh Juneteenth. Yep. Yep, thank you. Well, although our friends in the Muni world. Portend that down south they call it Juni. Do you have any knowledge of that? Your Muni guys would know far more. Talk about like Los Isley spaceport, more wretched hive of scum and villary.

Melanie does not exist, right? Exactly. What did you call it? The de the deeps of the deepest sea the deepest the deepest part of the deepest sea at high tide? Yeah.

Love it. Yeah. I mean I can tell you, like when I was young, they had this huge thing, the Washington Washington public power supply system. The bonds were called whoops. And they had these really high coupons. I mean, they weren't they were like in 17% coupon. Now the but that's back when the funds rate was 12. So it wasn't quite as egregious as But th this was my first um

uh introduction to the German word Schadenfreud. Mm-hmm. Because, you know, Shill and I took out student loans, which at that time bore an interest rate of eight and a half percent. And you could get twenty five hundred bucks. And Between the twenty five hundred bucks and summer job. and maybe a little part-time work at college, that was enough for us to pay for school, right? One of one of our friends, father, who

on a relative basis was wealthy but not like out here kind of thing, right? So he he takes The loan out doesn't need the loan, but it likes the 8% rate and buys these whoops bonds. The daughter and her boyfriend are bragging on how smart the father-in-law is. And then we're sitting on the front one day, and there's this picture from I think it's like Lidditz, Pennsylvania, of the smoke going up. I'll tell you what, I look.

Ecological disaster, worst thing in the world. Did I get a kick out of that? That was I generally like to see people do well. Yeah. But when you take an a gift. Um it seemed like did we missed the show, right? Uh yeah, but then we made yeah, that was two weeks ago, though. We did a show last week after you did the rounds with Kevin. We did a show last week. Oh yeah. We did Sunday night. We did Sunday night.

Yeah, that's how it goes by so fast. So what'd you do for Father's Day? Uh, what did I do? I went and saw my father with my son. And my daughter and oh my yeah, daughter went for a walk with mom. So me and dad are down in his basement and little Eevee takes his first two steps with me and the old man on following. Yeah, yeah. Score. Yeah, yeah. That's it. Yeah, exactly. That's it. See you later. I'm going home. We've had fun here. You enjoy the golf. Um,

My work is through here. Yeah. Yeah. All the stars aligned. So I was happy for the old man. Uh Yeah. Yeah. I had a the Jewish equivalent. The the daughters came up from Manhattan and we had a battle of the bands between Katzes and Rust and daughters. Okay. And I gotta tell ya, it's a tough call. You got chicken liver? You got chicken liver? Yeah, and I'll tell you something. Uh There is a um What's it a gourmand? or gourmet. I forget which is, but the more significant one, you know, which I

put myself in that camp when it comes to chicken liver. Um I'll tell you what, those are two different complex chopped chicken lovers. And I I don't I didn't have enough time to do the deep dive because they were gone. And now to to have you know, young women hoovering down chopped chicken liver in this day and age, I'll tell you, I feel like our work here is true. Now Good friend of the show and life philosopher Leslie Harris portends.

to make incredible chopped chicken liver. Wow. Wow. Wow. I'll take'em at face value, but you know, I mean that's a little bit of throwing down the gauntlet, but Did you have that growing up shop chicken lover? Absolutely not. Uh the closest thing to that would have been like liverwurst that my mom would occasionally I would be repulsed by that back as a child. But dude, I will eat cats's smoked chicken liver, chopped chicken liver with a spoon. Okay. Yeah. Is there any other kind?

My wife's wiping it all over bread. I said, Spare woman, give me the container, please. Wasting calories. Right? You're wasting space. Spare me. Give me the spoon. Yeah. I'll eat it like ice cream, no joke, until until I'm sick. Yeah. Um, you know, I've been on this keto thing and it's shocking how many fucking calories you can get down and not gain any weight. I know. I will routinely eat. A pint of ice cream a night. It's a thousand calories. Do I look like I put any weight on? Sickly.

I know, it's like eat a sandwich. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, I would, but feeling good tastes better than any sandwich. Um So let's see, I I we had uh the last show, I wanted to go back and talk about a few things because I think we fucked up a bit.

We engaged in a sort of a heated debate about the state of the economy. And that's not our mission statement. Our job is to talk about things that the average coconut. isn't talking about on CNBC. And you and I well Bl my bad. I'll take the fall, okay? All on me. But my job here is not to tell you what the economy's doing. It's to talk about things That I see that are unusual. And what triggered that thought was.

It uh one point I talked about how I don't like looking at payroll numbers around changes in the economy. And I I mentioned it and I think we talked about it. But then I'm reading Grant's observer over the weekend and he has an expert on and the guy makes the same point. And I it I don't point it out that it was in grants to brag. I pointed out that that

Why did this platinum subscribers pay all that money? Not to hear what we think about which way the economy is going, because even that great economist David Zervos in his most recent letter which I received uh before we came on just before we became on air so I haven't had a chance to plagiarize But he said, you know, macroeconomics is just the g just a fucking guessing game. This economy's too big. And you know, I've been the bear And the market's gone up, and I see things in front of me and

I get conflicted. So there's a lot of anecdotal evidence that the economy's moving along pretty smartly. Who's to say it doesn't stay that way? I mean, being traditionally trained, I'm gonna use the traditional tactics of talk about the drop in money supply. the constriction of lending, you know, th those sorts of things, right? The the the raising of the funds rate, just you know the list. I I beat you guys to death with that, right?

But as I've mentioned, we own a number of rental buildings. residential rental buildings in Manhattan and they are on fuego. Like to rent a studio apartment in Manhattan. Give me the address. Give me the address. Give me the address and give me the give me the neighborhood. Give me the numbers. Come on. Two twenty one West Twenty Ninth Street. So you can get it second and third. What's that? Between second and third on the west side? Yeah, yeah. So it's kind of near the kind of near the garden.

All right, so I'm talking position A. Okay, fine, but it's still it's not it's not bad. Doorman building and a high rise with a studio. Yeah, but but it's uh it it was built as a rental, meaning You don't have wolf um oven. You don't have a sub zero freezer. Understood. Okay. I think that studio goes for five grand a month. Ah, I was gonna say forty-five. Five grand. And but but but wait, there's more. It's not even five hundred square feet.

It's amazing dude. And and it lists and they grab it within Ten days. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. Five grand. I know. So five grand. Let's see if I can do the math. There's twelve months in a year, right? So five times twelve is sixty thousand. That's sixty thousand US dollars. And attack, let's just say the tax rate is 50%, just to make it easy. You gotta make 120 grand.

To live in something that's less than five hundred square feet. You cannot bring a woman home there. You cannot bring your boyfriend. I I'll tell you what, you you better fucking be. Or or or just move to You know, Joaquin it's such a let me ask about the same let me ask you about the in the same building. Let's call that same building a multi-use

And downstairs there was a Walgreens and the Walgreens is now shuttered because it's been shoplifted to death. What are you doing with the retail space that's for lease on the ground floor? Well I I I I don't know. I I we have four retail clients. And I'll tell you who they are. Okay. One is that away luggage store. which I don't know whether they're making money or not, but it's private equity. So the the r the rent is money good. Okay. One of them is one of these

fancy Italian designers who wants to say New York. Um you know, New York, Milano, Toronto. Okay. And during COVID they they were dragging their feet. But okay. And and that's a nice neighborhood. That's the corner of Bond and Lafayette, which is Primo, right? Okay. So those are two of my um uh rental, a commercial rental. The others, one is a City MD. Okay. So they're money good. Yep. And the other one is a Korean nail selector.

And, you know, they they weren't killing it. You know, we had to cut'em a break. I think when they figured out we figured out they were taking government money, all of a sudden the rent started coming in a little quicker. But, you know. If I had a Walgreens in San Francisco, I've it'd be I just shuck the keys. That's going to zero. I mean you know. I mean I I'm tempted. I've had this discussion with Uncle Mark. I'm like Just for shits and giggles.

Wouldn't it be fun just to go into Walgreens and just fucking walk out? Just take something Just take something? Bust you. You'd get busted. Yeah, it's true. It's uh you get a ticket. It's a desk appearance ticket, yeah. Well but but away from that, let's say Becky Quick decides

So Mr. Since you brought it up, since if you're gonna go shoplift anything, okay, I want you to go, I want you to go, and for the girls, again for the girls, you go to Lululemon, okay, because apparently this is a store. You go to Lululemon, they have direct orders to their employees to not even look at any sort of shoplifting. If there's a crime in progress, you say have a nice day. Apparently.

Two women called the police. They fired them. They fired them and made it a point. They said, look, our employee guidelines state that you do not interfere if there's a crime or sharplifting or larceny. You're supposed to say, have a nice day, enjoy your spandex, okay?

They find so you go to you find Lululemon. There's gotta be one in Greenwich and you say, look, I'm here finding a stack of size large leggings. Okay, all you off you go. You know, you've you've brought up an interesting point because There has been a little over a year debate amongst our team, and you know what I mean by team, about whether heterosexual men can wear Lululemon and the adjudicator, the ed. Has determined. Heterosexual men cannot wear Lululemon. So

I'd be stealing something I couldn't use. And that to me okay. Not in the Robin Hood spirit. You like to try to operate in the Robin Hood spirit. Well, you know. Do these people try this shit on first? That stock's through the moon. It's through the moon. Unbelievable. I know. Um So we had uh Some really nice traffic.

on the website and gotten some really terrific emails. I think. I I I think you feel similarly. There were a few I wanted to highlight. Um one in particular I wanted to clarify because I I might have been either misinterpreted or I may have not explained it right. But somebody wrote in and Sort of felt and and this is not to demean the person. I I just don't think we had a meeting in the minds. I think my comment about Trump and the information. was my claiming that

He people were looking the other way and they were gonna let him get away with it. That's not My belief. If it came out that way, then I was wrong. But I see it this way. That whether you think he's a genius or not, whether you think he's a great politician or not, I'm not going to have that debate. But what I know as a fact is he'll open his mouth and say anything at any time. That I won't debate. That to me is a statement of fact. So to carry that logic further. The people who support him

understand who they're dealing with. And I don't believe they would give him information That would be sensitive enough that he could either purposefully or by accident give it away. Now I'm not gonna say he didn't think he had legitimate data. I'm not going to say he didn't have nefarious plans. Um, but what I'm saying is my belief is that whatever boxes he may or may not have taken, and whether he took them legally or not. My belief is

At worst, it's garbage. And at best, it's information used to disinform our enemy. Did did I explain that succinctly? So is it clear I I don't think he's getting away with not being tried or there's not I mean they're gonna follow the the rule of law.

Just like that good fat chubby guy Crispin Oldley over in London's getting. Had a rough week. Jeez, that thing went down like a rock. Dude, all right, let me ask you about that. Let me ask you about this. So Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan say, okay, we're out like we we've we they're judge and jury and they pulled their money they stopped operating with him. That's fair? Yeah. That fair?

No. Why, you know, there we live in a country with rules and laws, and you should be um in a sentence and proven guilty. Now, when the idiot fund of fund managers would ask me what would keep me up at night. And when they weren't pleased with my answer being the safety of my children. I would say redemptions. Yeah. And so, you know, I think we're of like mind of the absurd economics hedge fund managers got. But this ability to have the chunk of your assets withdrawn on very short notice.

puts the business and your fellow partners at at massive risk. Because I I don't know exactly that dynamic. I'm I'm not that interested in it. Um he always seemed to be a big uh big uh slob. Um there's this other fellow, I don't know much about him, but he seemed to be kind of a creep guy hands.

You ever heard of that guy? No. Bridge guy. Yeah. Um, he's another one of these guys. I don't really know him, but he's the few interactions I had with him, he was kind of a douche. Um but um Were people right to pull their money? Well, it's their money. It was Goldman Wright or whoever I don't know who pulled their repo lines or whatever. There that should be in the contract. There are those that you know, there's contracts. Yeah, the operating room. But what's laughable?

With all of the implied sexual harassment of Goldman Sachs. that has gone on since I was wearing short pants. I say they got some set of stones.

So uh you know we're in a we're in a bizarre world right now. I I don't see it cleaning up anytime soon. Um I I generally thrive in these environments. Uh because and I've I've I touched on this briefly before you and I lost our mind and started arguing about what's going on in the flyover states. Um The way I ran I would to me it seemed very Now, understand if this is not the way you earn your bread and butter, it may not be that simple, but we have a cornucopia of different traits.

And you could put them into different combinations. So in a simple form, if you just bought a stock, you'd want that stock to go up. Let's say you bought that stock and there was another stock you thought would go down. So you shorted that one. So now you have two trades on, right? You got a stock that if the market goes up, you win. But if the market goes up, you lose on the other one, right? And the reverse So what we would do, what we would seek out, is many of these types of trades.

And then refine them and refine them and refine them until in this example we would find the best long we could find and the best short we could. And then... We would build up these positions. And my job would be I would put them into buckets. I'd have let's say simply three buckets. Bucket one is Make money when the market goes up. Bucket two, make money when the market goes down. Bucket three, make money if the market does nothing.

And if you optimize each of those three different trades, and I use the word optimize. Let's just say you pick the best one. We don't even need to sound like a fucking PhD clown. Just find the best long, the best short, and the best do nothing. Because as we've already admitted earlier in the podcast, we don't know what the economy is. I mean I do I think I do? Yeah, I think I do. Do I know? No, I don't know. Right. Which is why I got things that work and

bull markets and bear markets and sideways markets. So you know that I don't know how I want to close this concept, but that's the way you're supposed to manage a position for somebody that wants to be sophisticated. When you take, and once again, we go back to this thing that I perseverate on about identify your goal.

You've got two kids, you want them to go to college, you want to save your money, you got a long timeline, you got a long time horizon, your big competitive advantage is compound interest. You want to maximize the compound interest. You want to minimize your taxes. It's it's pretty straightforward. I mean, I understand it. Some people have trouble with it, not making fun. It's not everybody's thing. You know, I can't bake a fucking cake. It's not even

that I I can't even feed myself. I I I mean I can feed myself. I can't Prepare it's a day or two. You got like a day or two before you need help. Uncle Mark had this great comment. He said, Winston Churchill said, I can boil an egg. I've seen it done once.

Yeah. Um Anyway, uh going back to this notion of um Trump having information with the idea that he's gonna either inadvertently or on purpose pass it along. Okay. There have been times in history where That I recalled since our last conversation, which I found pretty interesting, and really are the element of why. This intelligence stuff is is so important. So as an example, again, this is operating virtually from memory. But Winston Churchill was a prolific

Epic writer. And he wrote several series. He wrote an entire World War One memoir, which I've been through twice, and a World War II memoir, which I've been through twice, so I'm probably gonna do a third time. We have the whole series, like Cheryl went out meticulously and auctions and stuff. So I mean, the the his biography is like twenty seven volumes or something like that.

But in the World War One memoir, he had been like First Lord at the Admiralty or the First Sea Lord or what something I don't know which title, but he was in charge. And at one point, the British had broken the Japanese code. And he wrote about it in his first World War memoir, but the Japanese didn't know. That the British had broken it. And they didn't read his book in discovery. So what a different world. What a different world. Yeah. So when we talk about, you know.

President Trump having access to information, the people who surround him all went to these naval war colleges. Okay. They've all been trained. My comment about who their allegiances to, right? It's not like I'm saying the constitution's wrong. What I'm trying to imply is I believe in fact A lot of these people are excellent and are smart and know that to do their job properly, they're not supposed to tell him things.

And you know, I I I think you look at the situation with the Japanese naval codes being broken, the the US. Uh didn't know that. the British had cracked the German codes and they were allies. Right? I mean you you get into the higher level of these things and it's a game of chess. Like you can't believe and So I I guess why I bring it up is I I think I spend a lot of time trying to figure out what's next. Because if you're in any way an efficient markets guy,

The price of Microsoft's the price of Microsoft. You know, that's pretty that's pr pretty well analyzed stock. You know, uh but if you know that they're working on something that might be something big, it might make you more excited about it. But you ain't gonna They ain't gonna come to you just by sitting here twiddling your thumbs, right? You gotta be thinking about what's what's the next big thing. And so we're going through this situation now.

Where I don't know how long ago it was. It can't be more than 18 months. But all people could talk about was Bitcoin. Eighteen months plus or minus? I remember I don't know, where is it? 26,000, 15,000. I don't regardless, how many times have you walked into a seven eleven? Jones and for a piece of gas station sushi and paid for it with Bitcoin. But if you look back, you had Stanley Druckamuir saying he owned some of it. You had Paul Tudor-Jones.

saying something like, hey, I, you know, they're not making any more of them. And it's the smartest guys in the world. And and I said to my wife, you know, they're they're not making any more Faberger eggs either. Yeah. Which is true. Um, but now we have the very same people, okay, talking about a technology called um AI. That's the AI, right?

I told ya, I I heard about it twenty years ago. It's already getting ugly quick. They it's uh there already people are turning on it because they it's been exposed as as racist. Stupid and a problem. Like so you know, they're like look Okay. It's already been turned on. It took what? It took two months for the cycle to for it to peak and now we're going down. It's ugly. It's getting ugly. Yeah. So please.

There was this week on the Kroger Kroger's a supermarket chain, uh uh my understanding, Kroger. You live in the flyover states, you go to Kroger, okay? I've been to a Kroger. I've been to a Kroger too, okay, in Colorado, all right. Kroger. Yeah, me too. Amazing, you and me. Um The guy says on the earnings call, the the Kroger CEO loves the voice box for Kroger comes on and mentions AI on the earnings call.

four times versus zero times on the March call. Okay. So when the supermarket guy is working it into the car f conference call, you you know you've really re reached a ridiculous point. So you've got Stanley Druck Mueller, the goat, Paul Jones, the goat. They were talking about Bitcoin. You don't hear a peep out of them now about the Bitcoin. Now they're talking about AI. Don't get me wrong.

It's gonna be great and it's gonna increase productivity. And it's gonna take a long fucking time before that productivity shows up in the business because they need to figure out How to use it and how to how to make the business better. And by the way, you tell me what happens when they bring in AI at a unionized Walmart? And it's gonna cut 50,000 jobs. How's that gonna go? Yeah. Yeah, Walmart stopped up.

Yeah. But the the you d right? I mean so it it l i life ain't that life ain't that simple. And um so we'll we'll see, but I you know, I clearly Um that has been a product of nothing going. Bingo!Bingo!

I mean, that is that's what that is. There's been it's been the doldrums. We've been in the Bermuda triangle of the market of chop for the last How long? Okay. We just got back to 4350. If you look at the chart that we used, our our cover art for our little show here, that chart that chart which we started using, I don't know, two years ago now, or 18 months or two years. That the price the price on that chart is 4350. We just got back there last week. So in two years.

What's really going on? Okay. You're down tripped. Um, but yeah, there's been it's been what's there been to talk about? You can't talk about the inverted yield code curve anymore. You can't talk about inflation anymore. They have exhausted those talking points. So It's like they drummed up a subject. Okay, AI, let's go. We'll go with it. And you know what? It's worked. Look what it did for Nvidia. Look what it did for anyone that's mentioned it has driven

Up. Yeah. Driven up the value of like stuff. Come on. I mean Well, I you know, maybe uh they go up. I I mean maybe the maybe I don't know what the price earnings ratio is, but there's that famous speech by the guy who runs ran San Mike Sun Microsystems back when I was at Greenwich Capital and we that's all we used because they were like the best. And the guy was like

I got news for you. At this price, I can't I can't justify it. Now I don't know what the deal is about making chips, but I do know that They're building a chip plant in Chandler, Arizona. Okay. I don't know who they is. Maybe Intel. Mm-hmm. They're building a chip plant in Israel. I don't know where in Israel. And those are just two that I found out about recently.

Now, understanding, we've already said we're not macroeconomics guys here. But if you're building chip plants, chip plants build chips. Which means the price of chips is gonna go down. And if the price of chips goes down while you're building chip plants, that's gonna hurt your margin. And the cost of capital is going up. Mm-hmm. And uh I I don't

In other news I I have to I have to bring up something. I I gotta I gotta poke the bear. Ms. Woods predicting$2 a barrel oil. Is that is that right? Is that right? No, I didn't hear that. Oh, I thought I sent it to you. Oh I'm I was busy today. Um please did she put a timeline on it? Can I get a timeline? So I know what does Soon. It it's it may it might be two bucks a barrel, might be ten bucks a barrel. I sent it to l I sent it to the leser. He sends me a note back in spends.

Why do they keep giving her a microphone? And I said, because it's better than the Simpsons. It really is. You it's the it's it's fantastic content. I go out of my way to watch. the interviews with her because it's it's like it's better than Saturday Night Live. Okay. It's better than SNL is to watch her sit down on Squawk Box or whatever on CNBC and two dollar oil.

Two dollars. It's it's I know Kathy Kathy lives in Wilton. Oh no, Florida, excuse me. She left Wilton and she went down to Tampa or some other like Oh, right before the hurricane. Right. Yeah. Or Pentacles not only knows where. But anyway, okay.

Kathy, let me take you around the world. Okay. Let me first we're gonna go to South America and show and show me where you're gonna charge your Tesla south of Mexico. Take me down south to Rio and take me down to down there and show me where you're gonna take charge your electric car.

And then we're gonna go we'll we'll go to Africa. We'll go all the seven continents and you can show me where they're gonna stop using oil and gas, okay, because if it goes to two dollars, that means the global demand has has gone completely dry, right? Okay. As far as I know, the rest of the world outside of Wilton, Florida, and maybe the pockets of Europe and the small pockets in Asia are operating on gas. And another one, Kathy, wait for it.

Diesel, okay. Gas and it's gonna run motors until I die. I am forty-two. Diesel motors will be around and functioning when I'm dead, okay? There's one of the there's one of these newsletters. I forget the name of it. It's pretty good. It's called like Duneberg or something like that. I may have sent it to you once. They went through like oil. And the reason they um use asphalt for roads is because it's a left offer leftover byproduct of cracking oil. Yep. Yep. It's a petroleum product.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I I I'm with I'm with you. I look in Kathy's world they're gonna pave the the highways with solar panels, okay? The highways will be made of solar panels and the autonomous Teslas will drive you around everywhere. Okay. It's dude, two dollar oil. I can't I mean now she's a Just keep, it's like that carnival game. Shoot till you win. And and and by the way, it's like you wonder, you you wonder, I I I don't know.

I keep it's genetics. I can't help it. I'm not gonna apologize for it. But she's taking two and twenty. Who ye uh who ye who who is stupid enough to give you this woman money? I don't I don't under well it it I did make the note one of the things I wanted to be sure to point out at today's podcast is please don't equate wealth with intelligence.

So yeah, I I just want to make sure that you know, before we we leave the air forever, yeah, I I I get and hopefully that's not today, but I wanted to I wanted to um

uh beat that thing a little bit. Um there were a couple of things on the website I wanted to mention. Uh I've Don't have my um heads up display functioning at a hundred percent. Our good friend Jason Tullis wrote an excellent article about learning from failure. And I've asked our webmistress to post that link. Okay. And then there's the note and I'm embarrassed to say I don't remember The fellow's name. But he wrote about you and I do in the podcast. Kevin Andrew. Kevin Andrew. Kevin Andrew.

This guy He's got a gift. He wrote I for me. a a sort of a thank you note to you and I, which I uh brought me pretty much to tears. And He wrote something recently, and if I haven't linked to it or we haven't linked to it, I want to find it. But he hits the nail on the head. talking about what's happening in society where with everyone being on the internet and the young guys in the parents' basement Doing what young guys in the basement do. And how it's

breaking down society and stuff like that. And I I just I really admire uh I mean maybe it's just simply I just agree with his line of thinking. But it's our show and yeah, yeah. But I I I I I'll try and make sure we can get that up there. In the next few weeks. But I've been really happy with some of the comments and feedback we've been getting. Because

You know, what with this writer strike coming up with new material has been uh let me tell ya, it's just been fucking brutal. I know. It's just been brutal. Yeah, plus my my refusal to talk about AI. I mean they they keep trying to get me to talk i i can't do it, I won't do it. I can't I can't and I won't. Um did you get any updates on your auction? You can we talk about your auction? I think I had some questions people asked me about.

Forty two hundred bucks. No, you're up to forty for up to forty yeah. Bronk? I thought you were at 15K. Weren't we at 15K? Where are you at 4200 bucks? I thought it was at 10 and then it was 12. I'm gonna have to go. Oh no, no, no, no. You're right. You're right. At 15K. 15K. But we're going to the end of uh end of end of July. But just to be clear, it's two bottles of Harlan Estate. It's Shannon's home. cooked brisket. Mm-hmm. And it's a lovely lunch with Liam

And myself. And there may be other guests. There may be uh an Uncle Mark appearance. There might be a Leslie Harris appearance. Um and just to be clear that The winner, the money goes to the charity. The money goes to the winners. Yeah. Charity. So we're getting nothing out of it other than saying we help the charity get some money. So all right, very good. What's up with your two-year? What's up with your two-year? I'm starting to take a look at what that fucking thing yields.

I you know, I love that thing. You know, I I've had such, you know, we grew up together at two year notes. Dude, you you pushed you uh that we you you now have given the two year many disciples, okay. Over the course of this show, there were people that who never paid attention to the two year, let alone the inverted yield curve, and now they're oh open my day. So the two-year notes of 471. One of our listeners just today wrote asking about

Does it matter how long the curve's inverted before it affects the economy? And he opined it did, because in his world, he runs a real estate. And the reason in his world, and I agree this makes perfect sense to me. The longer the yield curve is inverted, the more loans either mature or reset at a higher rate. And as those rates get reset, The corporations make less money, so there's less compensation.

and it bleeds into the economy that way. On the other hand, depending who is the receiver of the rate, they they have more income. Once again, we now become macroeconomics guys, and I don't know the answer to that. Interesting. But if you're looking at it from the standpoint of the business, I do think the this notion of the inverted curve

is actually the cause or a good chunk of the cause of the recession for the very reasons we mentioned. You know, all of a sudden your cost of capital, your cost of funds goes up. Yeah. You make less money. Yeah.

Uh yeah, so we'll see. I mean I I my position is uh largely unchanged. You know, I have a lot of these floating rate notes which are tied to sulphur. Um recently it seems pretty apparent that we're not gonna be seeing eases anytime soon. Um is the market got too many priced in? I you know, I I don't I I don't feel like I need to have an opinion on that. I I'm at the point I kinda and I don't always I'm not always here, but I'm at the point I don't feel like I gotta

have a bet with the market. Like the rate's good enough. Um I do have some long dated paper because there's an element of me Me, my investment, feels that we are ultimately going to see the Lacey Hunts. Which is going to involve lower asset prices and lower long term rates. And the benefit of floating rate notes is the are fairly stable price wise because as the rates move the coupon.

If you're expecting lower rates, you want a fixed rate, long duration asset. And so at this point, as we went back earlier and described how I run a book. This is my current version of that. And then when you get to levels that are uh in price earnings ratios. seem to be value and value to me, which I guess that means they're not value to me today. I'm gonna put some money in a diversified equity.

But right now, simple is best. And you know that that old saying about it's not w it's not return on your capital, it's return of your capital. You know, I it's a little boring when every week we come in and we say the same thing, but it doesn't not It doesn't make it wrong. No. No.

So anyway, look in the next few days when I can uh not so subtly coax our webmistress to post a few things and please keep sending your notes to uh Liam and we'll try and get to them as best we can and uh it's it's been a real um For me, I'd I I hope you feel this way. It's been a real um emotional experience lately to see all of the nice

feedback and they're not they're not puff pieces, they're things we talked about that people have been able to incorporate. And that that's, you know, especially for an older person like you. Um for me the the value is in what is it You get more joy out of helping people than you do out of making money. Yeah, absolutely. At least at this point. And so that that to me uh just just a lot. Thank you.

Yeah, they've been great. Um, the ones that I get a kick out of are the people that ad admit to being fish fans. Okay. I got a I got I got one today. I'm an inadvertent fish fan. Yeah, a hundred weeks of getting five minutes of it, you get you're stuck with it, you know? I don't know how many shows physically I'll be able to manage because they're

It's an it's an experience, but it is I spoke to I spoke to Edward yesterday and we'll work on some boxes and we're definitely going to some shows. Okay. And uh Wait, let's skip dinner beforehand. All right. We don't need to get in at five o'clock and have It's not about food. There's no food. All right, so I'll see I'll see you outside the garden at seven oh five and we'll go through You know, past the red velvet ropes and into the elevator. Yeah.

Yeah, exactly. We'll have our c typical costume so the paparazzi doesn't Right. By the way, I I do we have any time left? Ten minutes, ten minutes. Yeah, yeah. We didn't even do the whole thing. I wanna I wanna go back and bring something up here which is completely totally inappropriate, but

So you had Meghan Markle and her husband. Show's getting canceled. Her show's canceled. Go ahead. Go ahead. Terrible. I want to go back to this notion that they had A high speed chase through Manhattan. Now now help me with this, because I I'm a simple guy. What are you running from? Well tell me, tell me, what are you what are you running from? What is it they're what's gonna happen to you? Is it a gang with crowbars and guns? Tell me what

The safest city in the world. You can't go two blocks without seeing an NYPD car. You could have pulled over and hopped in. It's just it's comical. It was comical. You know, they do that story went away quick because they they thought, Oh, well, let's run it up the flagpole. And then people said, Hold on a minute. They said, No, no, never mind. We'll make that go away. One of my girls said she'll be walking down the street. Yeah. And um I forget the name. The

The news guy, Anderson Cooper, of course. Will be will be walking down Bleecker Street, pushing a baby carriage with absolutely no bodyguards, no nothing. Yeah. Now and and I'm not saying he's like a flashpoint, but m Maddie was in the subway two years ago and took her picture with Bill Murray. I mean, this is Manhattan. You don't need to run. It it's fine. You'll be fine. I I did hear this really terrible, terrible joke. And I'll I'll I'll Oh cover it up.

It may be getting me canceled, but it's too good. Oh then please, please, for your daughter's sake, let's get out of here before you tell terrible truths, okay? It's not politically incorrect. Okay, all right. I doubt that. I'll be the judge of that. Okay. So why did the princess cross the road? Go on. She she didn't ever see Taltan.

We can't we can't do the whole show without without beating the uh beating the war drum of Goldman Sachs about can we can we just blow on the embers of the fire there a little bit? Just a little bit. Well there there's talk the partners are not happy. There was a big article. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. dude it okay that's that's what it was it was the day after you talked about it and the guy and and ty i want to thank titanic capital

Who posted it on the website and said IBO IBWOC thought leaders again? Because you sat here on Sunday night talking about Lloyd. Okay. Wall Street Journal runs the article and Lloyd is the first paragraph about him holding court at the bar in Florida, leading the charge, bashing DJ D. Saul. He wants his job back. He wants his job back. Yeah. No, that DJ saw that. I don't know. I mean I don't have a dog in the hunt, but um how he's still walking. So there is this fellow

very, very, very talented banker at Goldman. His name was is is Greg Lemco. He was in charge of, I think, investment banking, maybe for the whole firm, like very senior partner. And I think one of the air apparent guys, maybe. But he didn't get the job and he gave it to to to Bozo. Mm-hmm. I believe he learned. and hooked up with Michael Dell, you know, they're the Michael Dell. And I think they're starting their own investment bank.

And they're gonna get their pick of the litter. Michael Dell's awesome. Michael Deli He is awesome. Is it is that right? Oh yeah. I don't know. I don't know. He is he's young. He's still young. He's Dell Computer wealthy. All right. And he is a smart He's an awesome dude. I've heard him, I've heard interactions with him that are incredibly big fans. Wow! Yeah, so, um...

Yeah, you can look up the Greg Lemkow, who I think that's how it's pronounced. I've never I've never met him, but you know, he was like Goldman Sachs partner right out of yeah, yeah, you know, some big time university. I think very well liked, very bright and uh, you know. probably, you know, picked the wrong horse in the ride to the top. And he he, you know, see the thing about investment banks. Your assets get in and out of the elevator every day.

And um These guys and I and I'm not a bad example. These guys get to a point where it's not the money. I didn't leave Greenwich Capitol because I didn't have a good deal. I had an absurd deal. I left because the the RBS Nat West guys were were like Kathy Wooddum. Mm-hmm. I mean that's even an insult to Kathy Wood. Um I I couldn't look myself in the mirror and think these guys are gonna be my partner. And it it wasn't even gonna be a partner.

It was gonna be like, well, you'll report to this guy. Like, no, that that no, I don't report. You know, that I've got enough. If these guys get that snowball rolling, who isn't going to leave? Goldman Sachs to go work for a big shot at Goldman Sachs. Yeah, that's how it works. And and Michael Dell. And by the way, your boss.

Is going through a midlife crisis. You know, I mean, look, I get it. The Whitney Houston thing, it's awesome. We listen to it all day long. It's fantastic. It's number one. The first thing I listen to in the morning. Alright, let's start with the last thing I remember. You know, some people do take pride in where they work. And I don't I don't know how you Yeah. How do you Yeah. There's been a lot of that that that drum beat has just continued and continued and continued. And to see Lloyd.

Leading the charge, like hanging out at the awesome. It's fucking awesome. See that's love'em or hate'em, okay? I like I said to you in the email, like I said to you in the email, I said, I know you just got off the sh you just got done on the show calling him a whiny little bitch, but I said, if this is the position that he's in now where he is, I can see him at the bar with the guy.

And and given the spiel because look, I Lloyd is likable, dude. I've seen interviews of him lately where he's come across as I like I know. Okay, this is me as everybody who gets wealthy. can be likable when they want to be. Okay, all right, but I trust me. I'm I'm a tough judge and there's uh there's a very few people that I like. All right, but he came I I got

I liked him. All right. I got he gave Okay. Okay. I'm retired. I train a little Forex and he's like everything's a shit show. He was like, I don't know And I was like, all right, good. But but to know that he's de he doesn't have to be down in Florida. He didn't need to be down there. Exactly, exactly. And he's at the bar, which is awesome because DJ D Saul is not there. So Lloyd is down in the trenches with the troops talking shit, okay?

Well there's just it's just such a great scene and the Wall Street Journal did a great job of painting the picture with sources familiar with the matter. Sources there It it was in the journal or the New York Post? No, no, it was in the journal. A hundred percent in the journal Monday morning. Yeah! Yeah I've been I I apologize. I've been out of it a little bit for the past couple of days. I got some catching up to do. But I it sounds like I got a lot of good things to read.

Oh, this was good. I almost forgot about it because it was so it was on m it was like Monday morning they hit you with it. They were like Lloyd Blankreen at the bar and they I I could have It's on the house. Exactly. Exactly. I couldn't read it fast enough. Oh made me so happy. He said, now go home and get your fucking shine box. Exactly. What a what a legend. I love you, buddy. All right, bro. It's been fun. All right. I'll talk to you soon. I'll see you next weekend. Take care. Cheers.