It’s A Wonderful Life! (In The Bahamas)

All the time! All the time! Oh friend, you don't Vamos esperar! Oh God has gone a fuss with your mouth! I sent it! Paper twos! Now luck is there! I wait a hell. Ha ha wa

Greetings and welcome to Inside Baseball with Old Chestnut. I'm Liam Allen with more sacks. How are you doing, MB? Perfect. I'm doing great. Um me too, man. I was uh listening to A C D C doing my pregame. Well no what are the odds of that? So did did uh little E. G have you up last night? Um he cries like a like a European siren. Um not like those New York City firetrucks, but like the European ambulance. Wheel, weo. Yeah, and it's like a distress cry.

Fortunately my my daughter, my firstborn, never did. She didn't cry in distress until she was three years old. Junior here cries, you know, if he can't get his thumb, if he wants to touch his eye, if he can't see me. It i it it's it's been a it's been a It's been a loving it's been a wonderful experience having a son. We were uh we were visiting with some relatives.

that uh are from Canada. And they were complaining that there was a shortage of their baby Tylenol. And and so I hatched the idea, seeing as they have like a tractor company. We could go up and buy all the baby Tylenol and stuff it in the wheels, you know, in between the wheel and the tire, right? Only to discover that there's a shortage of baby Tylenol here. Yeah. Yeah, I'm sure. Yeah. I don't uh I don't know if you know. The kids need the drugs. The kids need the drugs, apparently.

Uh I had a boss who's since deceased. He was written about in one of these, you know, when genius fails books. His name was John Eckstein. Okay. Uh famous guy. And uh um He he became a good friend, not a great boss, but a a good friend, good person. But he told me he discovered one of their nannies was sneaking the kids' baby Tylenol together to go to bed.

You know, back then that might have been a crime. Yeah. These days. You know. Suspended sentence. Right, exactly. So um well, you know, uh your night Uh was worse than mine. Mine To tell you what retirement's like, I find out instead of going to a movie And dinner we're gonna drop by Home Depot. Yeah. Friday night. And and pick up and pick up you ready for this? Three bags of rocks. Perfect. Like like washed river stones. Yeah, nice, nice. Exactly. And you know where they came from? India.

Incredible. I'm looking out my window. There's there's all the rocks you want. It's a barren moonscape with a couple of cactus littering the rock. Oh man.

Crazy week, huh? Oh yeah, it's exciting. Very exciting week. Yeah. Well, that must mean that you were on the good side of the ledger. If you listen to the show, you were. If you listen to the show if you listen to the show we fucking we fucking crushed it. And I know ki I know uh Kevin Muir's you know, skin's crawling now because we're baiting the market gods and all that. But you know what?

If I didn't have bad luck I'd have no luck at all. So they've they've had their shot. Um But yeah, we've done that. Done r uh really very well. I would like to give a shout out to uh My Muni guys, because uh I told you we bought some zero coupon Muni bonds. Mm-hmm. That's what we do. I like I like his answer on the phone. That's what we do. Yeah. Fucking hundred basis points. Amazing. And zero coupons. Incredible. Wow.

Yeah. Wow. And I I think they got more to go. So incredible. You know. But for the rest of you, Munis very dangerous. Stay away. You don't want anything to do with them. Nothing to see here, move along. Stick to your stocks. Yes, yes. And um and your uh Bitcoin going to either five hundred thousand or a million. Nov what did Novograt say? Novograd said Speaking of novograds, it's just occurred to me. So

He got the tattoo for Luna and it went to zero, right? I cannot th that that should not get swept under the rug. This man got a full b this is a grown adult, okay? This is a m a sixty five year old man that got a full color arm sleeve of a howling wolf and the words Luna on it. That's what that was his dedication to get it inked on his arm. Well, I don't know, let's call it nine months ago.

And it went to zero. Zero. Okay. So so I I I I I got a little thing here. Let me work with work with me. Work with me. Go ahead. So we got a little bitcoin. tattooed on his neck too, right? We've talked about that. And so in the last week, I think we can now, as adults, admit That it's a farce. Totally.

If you if you went to class, if you watched class, if you watched the the professor, okay, go ahead. Yeah. So not new technology, in fact old technology. Thirty years old. Yep. Rife for theft. Only only use. Tet Tether is a fraud and and I I think If you help me tease this out, I think I can prove it's a fraud. Yeah. Maybe. But by the way, just for shits and giggles, Morris Sack

of Greenwich, Connecticut in Scottsdale, Arizona, says Tethers of Fraud. So you know what? Fucking sue me. Mm-hmm. Let's see how that goes. Right. Right? You know why?'Cause in discovery Right. When they have to produce financials. Yeah, exactly. So um where were we? Going back to Novograds. Yeah, his next one. It occurred to me so he's 0 for two with the tattoos, right?

Jesus. Why did when we were looking for Osama bin Laden, why didn't we just get Novo and get a tattoo put on him of Osama? Think of the billions of dollars we would have saved. I know. I know. So um again as we discussed last week. I would like to separate out the Yeah. Yes. So so for instance, the purple elephant beanie baby has a price. Correct. Uh the ho a better example, a successful example is the Honus Wagner baseball card. Mm-hmm. I think it trades in the millions. Yeah.

Absolutely. Eighteen twelve what is that though? Eighteen something? Yeah. Yeah. Let's let's say by the time everyone loses their special key, there's two or three of these Bitcoin left and some schmo. Wants to put one in his special library and there's like one left in it maybe then it's a half a million bucks. Yeah. But

This whole thing is a farce. And we've said that all along. And as Liam mentioned, if you went to class There's a Berkeley college professor who explains to you Why this thing is absurd. He did the whole hundred episodes, k distilled it into an hour. Fantastic delivery. He just did nothing but fact after fact after fact, and it's just gripping. It's on the Charlie D. speech level to me. Yeah. So it sets up as one of the great con games of all time.

And um the reason uh I I I think I I it's like I'm conflicted because I don't know that we really need to sit here for an hour and bash the thing, but I mean part of me wants to get across a couple of points because I I don't think it's over. Right. No chance. And the reason the reason it's not over is because of Tether. And and let me let me work through this with you a little bit and we're gonna we're gonna hit topic

That um we may have touched on in earlier episodes, but not everyone listens to every episode and stuff like that. So um so basically uh This kid, this punk, whatever his name is, who SPF stole the stole the stole the money. Okay. He's he's doing the publicity tour and apologizing as as one famous Irish lass said, sorry doesn't fix the lamp. Thank you. Of course I don't know why the son didn't say crushing. But but mom, I was practicing my dancing

And it just fell off the no? That might that might have gotten that that would have been see like the sh I was smart enough to use that, okay? So thank you. Did you? Oh dude, I was so good. I was so good. Sorry about the broken lamp, you know. I was reaching for my for my homework. It was just over there. I was getting my pen out of the drawer and the dr yeah. Dude, I was so good. I was such a such a silver tongue that.

Um but yes, yeah, sorry doesn't break the lamp. It doesn't it you know sorry doesn't fix the lamp. The lamp is broken. So I've tried not to watch this stuff. Like Andrew Ross Sorkin, who by the way, does that does that guy wear makeup? Is he like wear eyeliner? Has to, yes, a hundred percent. Yep.

I I don't know, you'd have to get five guys and hold me down to have somebody put eyeliner on me. When when we're on when we're on Bloomberg at midnight in two years, okay, doing our show and Morris has caked on eyeliner Fake eyeb eyelashes. Okay, remember this. You know what? Before before that I'd be willing to wear a dress made with don with put with donuts on it.

Write it down. It's on the pad. MB's doing the the the show with uh with a donut dress and makeup on Bloomberg at midnight, twenty twenty-five.

So you got this this snot eaten kid and he's living in squalor, apparently. He's in a thirty million dollar penthouse that Bloomberg described as it looks like a frat party. Okay. So um and he's apologizing, he's apologizing. And you know, the whole thing like I didn't know and this and that. Well so this is what struck me. So as you know, I have three daughters. Very proud. I made a point of not pushing financial services because

Back then and even today, I don't think it's a female friendly environment and it's never gonna be. Okay. But Cheryl being a CPA accounting major, me being a CPA accounting major. The oldest daughter got a degree in history. The middle daughter got a degree in marketing and the youngest daughter broke spread, the black sheep, the black wolf of the family, got a degree in economics. Okay. Well, the

Oldest is chief investment officer for a multinational corporation. The middle one is a senior at an accounting firm. And the the youngest one is working on SEC registrations at a at a top ten New York law firm. Okay. Not bad. So okay. So the apple doesn't fall from the tree. Uh another example That famous hedge fund manager and Twitter aficionado. Bill Ackman, okay. You may not know this, but he has a gift, a real gift for investing in real estate.

Guess what Bill Ackman's father did? Let me guess. Was he a real estate investor? What do you know? Okay. So now we got two examples, right? Okay. So This punk's parents are Stanford University law professors. Mm-hmm. So you're gonna tell me he had no idea what he was doing was wrong? Well I I I cry both. Okay. So you saw uh earlier in the week the unfortunate helicopter crash.

of a b oligarch, a bitcoin oligarch. Yes, yes, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. See, they know how to meet out justice over there. Okay. Blue skies, sunny day. All of a sudden you're in the side of the side of the mountain. And and by the way, you know. How funny I'm sorry. Well, i it's a little funny. It it's not as funny as uh Kanye posting swastikas on Twitter. That's funny. According to Dave Chappelle, that's funny.

So here's two here's my th so after the Kanye snap, I'm like, look, I tried Twitter for like two weeks, thanks to you and Kevin. And it took me forty five minutes. to disable my account. So they're doing something to keep people from leaving. So th think think about this for a minute. You have I'm mad. with a diagnosable mental illness who has self control issues running something which is a system where people can say basically whatever they want. That's a great combination. What what's next?

Why don't we go find a guy with Tyrettes and put him in charge of it? So but I digress.

Tether, my epiphany, okay? This is why I'm ninety-eight percent convinced it's fraud. Okay. Legal suggested I say ninety-eight and stuff like that. Thank you. So you may recall uh me discussing when I was uh working for Bobo during the financial crisis and uh EG and I'd come in in the morning and you have all these trades on. And your trades in certain securities, like Treasury bonds, are with a direct counterparty. Mm-hmm. Meaning if I'm Bobo and

You're Bobo A prime. Okay. You have each other's risk. One fails, that's your problem. If you have a trade on with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Y your risk is with the Merck. So it's it's a very different situation. I remember this vividly from you talking about when you thought your counterparty when you described the only two times in your life that you've panicked. When you thought your counter yeah. When you thought that they weren't liquid.

So we're sitting around during this crisis trying to make heads or tails of it. Now, you're talking about a room filled with ten guys that I'll have twenty years experience in the business, right? And we're starting to understand The risk we have with these repurchase agreements. Mm-hmm. So just as an example of a purchase agreement is I own a bond, but I need the money to pay for the bond. So I give you the bond as collateral, you give me the money, and um, you know, I pay you uh

Uh you pay me interest on the money and then uh and and the cycle continues, right? Okay. What we discovered was if my counterparty went bankrupt. What did that mean? What rights did I have? to either deal with the cash or deal with the collateral. So we would come in every morning and uh E. G would have a report and so if the headline hit Lehman goes bankrupt. We knew immediately we had to buy or sell X amount million five year notes. Okay. Okay. Now

It was that genius? Well, I wouldn't say it's genius, but I'm telling you we were one of maybe three guys who thought about it. Okay, because it never happened before. Mm-hmm. Okay. So now we go to tether. where the guy can't change his fucking clothes, get a haircut, he probably doesn't wipe his ass, right?

They don't have any documentation. The bankruptcy guy said it's the worst thing he's ever seen. There's no records. And then he's chatting and the lawyers are pulling their hair out. It's like I can't believe he's saying these things. Okay? So FTX is a completely foobard situation. Totally. Yep. With me? Yep. So far, so good? Okay. Documented, yep. I read somewhere in the public domain Tether's largest client is FTX.

Okay. So this is where it gets a little murky for me. I called Big Ed yesterday because he's really good at helping me think these things through. And he's has some uh limited uh experience with the cryptos. But And I I I'm giving you the disclaimer that this is not my area of Mm-hmm. Nor will it ever be'cause it's you know, as I posted on one of my three tether posts.

Thank you to all of you crypto traders providing liquidity to human traffickers, drug dealers, you know, okay. Um so let's say uh I'm guessing snot knows kid,'cause he's having all these sex parties and blowing all its money, he's taking cash. Meaning he's given Tether Tether and they've given him cash. Total.

Well that money's gone. Yeah. Dude they bought two hundred million dollars worth of houses in the Bahamas. They're they're they're it's all gone. They can take the house. Oh the money that they b that they blew up their nose. That or whatever. Gone. Okay. So now How does Tether that has an account receivable From a bankrupt entity which is valued at ostensibly zero, okay, how do they maintain their one dollar? uh per share or per coin.

Parody. Yeah, they're they're quote unquote peg yeah. Frogs. They make it up. Yeah, they prop it up with something. Yeah. Yeah. So that's to me like There's no accountant. There's no accountant watching. Yeah. So if The one thing about the financial markets throughout history, okay, the reason it works is because of integrity. Okay?

People laughed. And and I laugh too. But every couple of years Uncle Mark and I watched that scene from It's a Wonderful Life where where Potter generates a bank run. Yeah. Because because We don't really see those in our in our life, right? Because the banking system since the thirties has been regulated by the FDIC. Okay. Well these guys didn't want regulate. Okay, well be careful what you wish for, right? So Anybody okay, any institution that

has money a tether, I claim, I claim, is now breaking their fiduciary responsibility to whoever they report to. So I checked Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs will not hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet for clients. Amazing. Yep. Okay. Well what's that tell ya? Mm-hmm. Okay. It tells you they know it's not they know it's They don't want to take the risk. Why should I take the risk? Okay. Then you can get into the whole ESG concept of what I said, which is, you know, drug dealers

nation states, human trafficking. And by the way, don't kid yourself. You know, if you're just punting around with a couple thousand bucks worth of this Bitcoin stuff, you you got You're guilty. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You're funding it. A hundred percent. Yeah. Yeah. So I you know, d y you it's between you and your own God, but when I saw that video where the professor from Berkeley now this is not Morris Sack

B minus student, University of Illinois. This is Berkeley, West Coast. They got some technology people out there. Yeah. Okay. I uh so who are you gonna listen to? The Winklevi? Right? You're gonna listen to Matt Damon? Yeah. How about how about Novo? Sailor Sailor. You don't hear from him anymore, do you? Uh, he was shooting his mouth off this morning. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Dude, he's a clown, dude. Yeah, oh dude, he's posting like, you know, pictures of the apocalypse and then Bitcoin shining in the distance. And who's Clifford Asnes? You know Clifford Asnes has been absolutely dragoned Sailor. Every sa every post that Sailor has, Cli Clifford Asnus is in the comments, absolutely destroying him. It's fantastic. It's such a wonderful place, Twitter. See that's why I'll never leave. I can't I I I can't I can't stand it. You know, you saw

Um and um you know I'm very fond of him, Bill Ackman. He was up there with the I believe him. Call me crazy. Bill, put the phone down. Listen, Bill he's got a wife. He's got an ex wife, he's got a Several children. And he's got time to be on Twitter? Dude, if I was per if I had my money at perching, I'd be like, boss, what do you boss, come on. Didn't you have a rough couple of like yet? I don't think his I I I don't want to bash Bill. No, no, no, no, no. Hey, it's been a tough market.

I was really disappointed, heartbroken to see apparently Bridgewater blew their leg off in the last two months. I'm glad that made the show. Thank you. Just just to be clear about this, okay? Before everyone who's new to listening thinks I'm a cunt. I like to see people succeed. Okay? What I don't like to see are these douchebags running around telling everyone how fucking smart they are. Thank you. And they're

making money off of fees off of your money. I I keep thinking about every time we this comes up with this hedge fund stuff, you know, I have three I have money in three hedge funds. One's not a hedge fund, it's private equity. Okay? I put money in in 2008. It's 2014. I still don't have all my money back. And and to and to beauty. So to show ya it's not just

um old chestnut. Mm-hmm. Blackstone. Did you notice? Blackstone who has uh Steven Schwartzmann who's It must have been very sad for him when his daughter got divorced and married the tennis pro at the country club with four kids. Soul soulmates. Um so these guys are savvy guys. So him and this other fellow who I don't know. I don't know Schwartzman either. Okay. Um Stephen Gray's Stephen Gray's supposed to be extraordinarily talented a real.

Okay. They set up a fund. Yep. Guess what? Gates are coming down. You're not getting out. Now you can't leave. Yeah. Yeah. Now as you can't leave. We'll order in. How's Chinese? But we had Chinese 70 days for the last week. Dude, that was their ESG fund. The ESG thing is just didn't work. It's you know, it's great in it's great in theory until the numbers start rolling in and the people start running for the door. Yeah. Well well, I mean I'm not I I just the political correctness stuff.

Drives me crazy. Okay. Now granted I'm a sixty-two year old uh guy. I I don't think I'm angry. I I think I'm pretty happy. I I just what frustrates me is this guys walking around with their nose up in the air like DJ Sall. So once again, let's let's go back and and and hit what's going on there. So DJ Saul made some vulgar remarks. According to what I read, the firm was fined twelve million dollars and they paid it.

Now, I don't know if you've noticed, but they very subtly have been leaking to the press that guys are getting fucked on their bonuses. Oh, I saw that on Friday, dude. I Nice nice way to bury that in the news. Yeah. Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon. Yeah, six o'clock. Yeah.

But it's the number one headline. Type in if you Google Goldman Sachs right now in the news section of Google, the first headline is C M B C Goldman Sachs warrants traders a shrinking bonus pool as Wall Street hunkers down. Nice. Good PR. after having a record year trading. Dude, that's the Bloomberg headline. The Bloomberg headline is Goldman jolts traders with bonus warning after bumper hall. Okay. So

Now we're in my kill zone. Traders and compensation. Right? Okay. I'm claiming one of the very few things or two. Uh right? Okay. So, um If you don't care about compensation or human behavior or whatever, you know turn the thing off for five minutes. But this is for this is for traders. Um here's how it goes, okay? If they fuck you once on your bonus, okay, they are gonna fuck you every year you stay. And not only that, During the bonus calculation meetings, they're going to be laughing.

You know how I know? I've been in these meetings. They're gonna laugh and they're gonna they're gonna just have such sick fun about how you've worked all year and how you've had all this anxiety and now they got you on a little string and they're gonna start pulling the Yep. And by the way, this is right in DJ Kills uh Saul's kill zone because What they're doing is twelve million dollar fine the firm paid. That is not a meaningful figure in relation.

But he totally went that Marcus route, which was like the consumer banking thing, and that thing shit the bed. Totally. But he can't get paid less money. So the money's got to come from somewhere. So he's going to accomplish a few things. He's going to get Anyone who's talented. is gonna get screwed on their bonus and they're gonna quit and they're gonna go somewhere else. And they're gonna bring in somebody else and use it as a way to fulfill minority quotas.

Yeah. After after a record breaking year. Yeah.

I don't know if the firm had a record breaking year. No, I'm just using hyperbole, but like for the donuts to the donuts to record breaking comparison, you know? Yeah. Yeah. So I'd God I would love to be a fly on the wall in that board of directors. Why would there be pushback? Yeah, not in that room. Yeah. What it look, here's the pushback. I'm getting a million a quarter. I get to say I'm on the board of Goldman. I get

I get a restaurant reservation any night I want. Yeah. When there's a private jet going somewhere I get to jump on the thing. You know, I got business cards, you know, King Grand Pooba. Yeah. Oh I I'm gonna it's not my money. Fuck it. Yeah. Yeah. That's what comes out. There was that phrase? OPM? Mm mm. Other people's money. God forbid he's gonna be spinning records someplace. And some

This is serious. This is what a board member should be thinking, okay? He's gonna be spinning records someplace. Like I said, God forbid. Somebody's going to have a drug overdose. Someone is going to be sexually assaulted. Something like that. And the New York Post is gonna say DJ D cell spinning. It's gonna be like it's gonna be like the Rolling Stones with the Hells Angels. Hells Angels, the security guard, and they're gonna someone's gonna get beat to death. And you know what?

It's like and they're gonna pay'em because it's not their money. So you know what he should get? He should get a fucking donut. Okay. That's number one. Number two, I still go I still go with the conde leaser rice. Okay. I'll t I'll tell you why. You need to bring somebody in from outside the business. Okay, to restore credibility. To Goldman though? To Goldman? Yeah. Absolutely. It's perfect. It's perfect. She might sh I heard she was gonna coach Alabama football. Well, Dj Saw has two jobs.

I and by the way, I'm guessing he puts way more time into spinning than he does into running that firm. Dude, he has to because he cares about what people think about him. Like dude, if you're if you're going and doing your DJ set, you want to see the heads bopping and people

That's what that that's that's what drives him, is getting the crowd going and people like you know It's like it's like in that Goodwill hunting. You're at the club and the music is boom, boom, boom, boom, boom. Like you're gonna jump me.

You put me on the spot asking about women that would run goal about women. Um and I came up with two other ones that Priya Misra. I Priya Misra is sharp as a razor. When she talks I listen and Ellen Zentner too. I really like Ellen Zentner for Ellen Zentner. Oh kind of. She's fucking good. Thank you. Okay. No, no, no, no, no, no. And no no, you're you're you're you're entirely right. My only question is, you know, I I don't

I think she's chief economist, so she has some man's responsibility. Um uh yeah, there there are women that can do this job. I I know you mentioned my friend Shelly Leibowitz. I I I well, first of all, I'm convinced she could do it. Mm-hmm. Okay. I mean, I worked with her for a bunch of years and this woman is the velvet hammer. Right. Mm-hmm. And uh knows

You know, there's no See that's what it takes. That's what you said. Like you said with your daughters. That's what it takes. And if she's the if she's been in there with sharp elbows and made it that high but Ellen Sentner, when she talks, that's the kind of sharp economist brain that's analytical, measured, and just like you just kinda I kinda want that at the rudder of the ship, you know?

You know, I think there's been studies that women d are better you know, in certain certain instances are better decision making than men. I there's so many there's been instances at my job. There's been instances at my job where I've been real where if I have a situation that I'm dealing with two women, everything is going smoothly, and then another guy gets involved. And I said it last month and I was like, see what happens?

I was like, you got two dudes involved, and everything was hunky dory with the three of us until you got another guy involved, and then it got all fucked up. That's why I sometimes I think that the women are better running the show than three dudes. Two women and one dude is better than three dudes. Three dudes is a monkey mess. Really. It's just you That's my my opinion on that. I I don't have a lot of experience with two women and one guy. All right, come on, please keep going.

And the good part is if Goldman hired Shelley, she's a woman. They'd have to p they wouldn't have to pay as much. It's a home run. If I'm building my team, I want Shelly, I want Ellen Zentner, I'm gonna take Mike Wilson. We're just gonna move the Morgan Stanley people over. All right, because Mike Wilson has been dead nuts right this year, okay?

Ellen Zedner, pre emission, that's my that's my triumvirate at the top. Wha what if we you know how they they these guys these incels play their fantasy football? Yeah, yeah, yeah. What if we set up a like put our you know somet something that's something to think about. Hey, how about since we've we've got about four minutes

We talk about the market? I thought we were doing three and a half hours. We had to one up the market huddle. The market huddle's doing a three-hour spectacular this weekend. So according to the clock, we got two hours and 25 minutes. to to go. Um I I don't think my internet'll stay up for three hours. Um they did a three hour and twenty minute show? I I think it gets released. I'm not sure if it's been released, but yeah, I saw it was getting promoted. Three hour show. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Please, please, let's talk about the market because I called you uh before you before you say anything that I regret, okay? Um let's go let's go to Thursday Ha ha. Y refresh me. What happened on Thursday? We had jobless claims?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Jobless came claims and then what Powell spoke? Okay, Powell spoke and they you know, they read the tea leaves and it was you know, a dovish. We're gonna stay at fifty basis points, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then off to the races. The mark Yes right up, right up. Um and I was and I called you and I said, Who what's going on with you right now? And you were like, Yeah, I'm traveling. Um so uh First of all. І once again.

Robbie Wall nailed the low. He and Uncle Mark did this research and said the low is gonna be The thirteenth of December. Plus or minus. Oc October. October, yeah. October. October thirteenth. And then our Canadian fellow mucked it up and and dyslexia kicked in and he didn't get involved'til the thirty first, but hey.

You know. He's he's the one with the newsletter. Um so what I think has happened is a a a few things. One is a as we've chatted, I I felt the rate structure uh had gotten too far Right, which is what led me to uh get to you know m ma max risk, which you know for sixty two, that's not ma max risk. like, you know, when I was doing the Chernobyl thing, but yeah, I mean yeah, this has moved the needle. Okay. So stock had to reflect that uh what we thought was a too high interest rate level.

As the market has come to conclude The Fed is now understanding that there is a lag between the tightening of financial conditions and the slowing of inflation and the slowing of the economy. That doesn't mean we're going to get a perfect result, but to me, that's a perfect mindset for the Fed to have. Number one, we need inflation down because that hurts the people who are most vulnerable. Bingo.

No one can argue with that, right? Makes perfect sense. Okay. Then the word is: well, they're going to tighten until the economy goes into a blue. Well, no. He he said, you know, we're gonna monitor incoming data. And the key was We're looking and understanding there's lags between changes in monetary policy.

But what I follow, and we can talk about the payroll number in a minute, what I really like are these purchasing manager surveys. And uh I've been instructed to try and drive traffic to the website. Uh I put up a chart which I copied from Bloomberg. Um At at some point between the fish and the charts we steal and put up, some copyright letter is gonna come for us, but I'll just I'll just move to the Bahamas. I bet there's gonna be a penthouse for sale.

Um I went through there and in red I outlined what's happening. So To repeat myself from I think last week, he's purchasing manager I got it. Yeah, yeah. Um these purchasing manager surveys are good because they're simple. Okay. Where things better the same or worse than last month. Yeah. Yep. So above fifty things are better. Below fifty things are worse. And somewhere in my travels

I think I remember someone telling me when they get to thirty eight, that's recession. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right. So compare that to yesterday's non farm peril number, okay, which was stronger than expected. That number gets convoluted in all sorts of ways. I did take great uh pleasure in a couple of people mentioning The birth death rate. Which did we talk about it the week before or two weeks before? You mentioned it a couple of times, yeah. Yeah, yeah.

Yeah. So you got a number. Well, first of all, how many people are there in the United States? Three hundred and thirty million? Something like that. Yep. Yep. Right? Okay. We've distilled it to down to try and determine whether two hundred thousand people You know. ch change jobs or two hundred sixty thousand. How how the fuck are you gonna spit to that number from where you're at, right? Right. Um so they throw so much Shit against the wall. Some stuff sticks, some stuff doesn't.

So is I h pretended before when I made this thing about, well, in medical school they told me if you didn't like the blood test results, you run'em again, right? Okay. Just don't fucking take one number, especially payroll, and start extrapolating it for two reasons. One is to use a sophisticated word, in case our dear friend Shelley is listening, it's spurry. Okay. There's a lot of noise in that number, right? I'm hoping she gets the job at Goldman'cause they got a great executive dining room.

I g I'll get you up there one night. You'll like it. You like it. Apparently apparently go ahead. Apparently there's a little plot of land right at the corner of the building that's a monument to immigrant Irish. Did you know about that? I don't I don't know. Go ahead. Like it was the guy describing it to me. And this was back in oh eight when they were trying to steal the airport company from me. What a douche this guy was. He was talking about, you know he's since left. I don't remember.

But you know, he was talking about how he was on the committee to design the building. And you know, when when buildings explode, most people get hit by the shards of glass and they design the building so when the building blows up the glass explode out. Okay. So the employee okay. Yeah yeah. But he was trying to explain to me how they had to design the building around this little corner Dirt. Good anyway. Yeah. Inconvenienced Goldman Sachs. Thank you. And anyway. Um Plain and simple.

My world was Recession, full stop. You look at the purchasing manager surveys, they've rolled over this. They call it I think the SINFI, the Chicago National Financial Index. That one it doesn't hardly ever move. It moves in small increments, but it never misses. That's recession. Okay. The yield curve most most people talk about is a dead solid indicator. D it the fucking inversion that took place on Friday, like I'm long long paper, it was like

Fucking orgy. I couldn't believe this. Like I I said to the guy next to me, pinch me. I want to make sure I'm not coming. Oh so um here's the the

question for me. A as you know, I made this whole big spiel about how we got the stocks down to the two hundred week moving average and I was gonna I was gonna make a And I did. And um Now that they've rallied, um instead of uh putting them away and riding off into the sunset, um now I'm getting gidgeted. E. G asked me about the riding off into the sunset and I said, you know, we both knew that was bullshit.

What has it been? Three weeks? I you y you've held out a long time. Uh I'll I'll look. It's it's uh six weeks probably. Not it no, uh October thirteenth. Thirteenth. Okay. So it's been So, you know, traders gotta trade, right? Um So here's m here's my I can't use the word dilemma because I would be using it incorrectly. Here's my anxiety about the situation.

Between now and the end of the year, let's call it between now and January fifteenth, the technicals, meaning the positions, they're wildly bold. Okay. The problem for me is the economy is going in the shitter faster than anyone wants to appreciate. Okay. And stocks don't do well I don't believe I could check with Dave Rosenberg, but I don't pay for that. Um'cause he's always bearish anyway.

When your last good call and the same thing to Michael Berry, when your last good call was the savings or the financial crisis in oh eight, oh eight fourteen years ago, move on. Okay, yeah, yeah. Let's pick something else. Try our class. You know, maybe make some uh potholders or something like that. Where do you where where do you see the economy slowing? Everywhere. Okay. All right. Um you know, there's some backlogs. Uh

You know, I I have some contacts in the construction and agricultural, uh so I need to be very careful what I say. But unsurprisingly, given the high prices of agon energy. And given the dislocations because of the war, that sector continues to remain robust. But, you know, it's like boots on the ground. First of all, you can't open the paper without Silicon Valley firing people. Yep. Yep. Okay. So number one. Number two. You know that fucking butt ugly station wagon Mercedes thing?

The G L. Yeah, they are hideous. Yeah, okay. So we have We we have a friend who went out and I don't know, a year ago, eighteen months ago, got hold of one and used one. that f a a used one he paid a hundred over list new for a used one. Okay. Uh I read this thing in the journal. They can't get rid of'em.

Dude, I saw there was like a dozen of'em on eBay and there was no Toyota Corollas. Toyota Corollas sold out. G Wagons, we got'em for sale and like all coming off the price, whatever it is, you know. Yeah. So w Cheryl got finally finally got a new Tesla. Meaning f it finally came arrived, right? Okay. So now we got of course we got a shit price from Tesla. Like I look up on uh Kelly Blue Book. What's it worth? Thirty grand. They'll give you twenty.

F fuck you, I'll keep it. So I'm like, all right, great. What do I do with this fucking car? So I I call up two people I know who I I'm fond of, you know, relationship and I say, Hey, listen, no strings attached. I got a Tesla. Would you like it? My gift to you. Ofer two.

Thanks. We don't want a four thousand dollar a month electric bill. Well that's the thing. And and I finally I finally sold it to somebody. And it it wasn't like it wasn't like Cashing it's over, it's like I had uh I had uh I had to underwrite a warranty for a year on the thing'cause the guy's the guy, you know, the battery like Amazing. So the this whole backlog of cars is cleaned up. Yeah. I I don't think I I don't do this will come as a shock to you. I don't do a lot of the grocery shop.

Mm. So I don't know what food prices have done. But my guess is they're still hung up a little bit. Mm-hmm. Um But you know, the rest of the stuff feels to me like it's easing up. And you know, maybe I'm maybe I'm missing the boat, but uh um I just think No, I I just I it's this back to this is it August or is it February? And you tell me. You're you you're boots on the ground. I hate to say it. I I to me I I think the American consumer and the American economy is still ripping.

Okay. I can reply to the I know the statistics. I know I know the construction sti I know the construction. I know the the housing market. I know commercial real estate. I know that statistically that stuff has come some of it to a grinding halt. But I think that American consumer, like their appetite to spend, and I know that you can probably reply to it with like the bad uh the household savings has been dram dramatically decreased and the credit card balances have gone way up.

But I just see like w like when I say boots on the ground and maybe I'm use uh you know, we live in the bubble. The the New York Metro is uh is is is tough to judge. This isn't Sandusky, Ohio. Um You know, so it's different. But I just see like restaurants, town, airports and consu like people spending the consumer spending is just it it rips here, you know.

Yeah, yeah. And I and you're going into the end of the year with the holidays, right? So that'll be interesting to get the data. But there's a huge chunk of cash sitting in consumer savings accounts. That to me is inconsistent with credit card charges going up, okay? You know, I could ask Zervos, he could probably explain it to me. Or we got a a new friend that uh is a great uh fixed income analyst, maybe he can explain it. But the projections I've read, um

Show that that bubble in consumer cash by the middle next year is going to be gone. Somebody who will remain unnamed, sent me JP Morgan's latest research piece, which I scanned earlier today And even they're admitting like they can't be bearish. They just But they're even admitting that um in two thousand and twenty four we're gonna have a resignation. Maybe two thousand. So so the morgue is Rome.

So what do you do? I I think for me what do you do? I don't know. That's your your responsibility. What I'm gonna do is what I what I've been saying I think all along, I'm gonna be out of my equities between now and january fifteenth and I'm gonna keep the fixed income'cause the rates are still too high. And uh once the recession hits and we go and by the way, I think I think JP Morgan so we're gonna go back and test the law on uh Spoose.

Beginning of next year. Yeah. And then when we get back to take out make out a new low, then I'll buy of a whole bunch of stocks and then and then I'll retire and and walk off into the sunset. So February. So February of twenty three. Yeah. Um I don't know. Should we get off before the internet crashes and we lose the internet? I don't I don't need your internet excuse just'cause you're you're done talking to me. I wanna ask you about the SC SPF S D X thing.

And the way that he's been treated, I wanna go back to this'cause I'm I'm not quite done with it. Um, I wanna know Why And and y you don't you you're not gonna answer it, but like The difference in the way that he's been treated and the way that Bernie Madoff was treated. I mean, you remember that news clip. of him getting shoved and l and mobbed by the by the the the the reporters and and everything down at down in in Manhattan at court and he was public enemy number one.

And this dude has been doing the fucking publicity tour. I can explain that I can I can I can give you that in in a couple of sentences. It's the prolific mania that has swept the world. Okay? This is we're living in history. Okay? We're living in history. And they've convinced people, right? They've convinced people that

This is the holy grail. It's gonna change everyone's lives for the better. And people have drunk the Kool-Aid. And that I I've I don't remember it exactly, but I've told you the story about like in the eighteen hundreds. somebody came up with this scam that they could take a box Lead, put it in seawater, right? And after three hours it would be gold, right? And then the stock goes up to a hundred. They discover it's a fraud.

Okay. The stock goes from a hundred to like ten. And it doesn't go to zero for I know. And they still people were like, Nah, yeah, w we we don't quite believe it. But I know. But I do I do wanna continue to separate the two things. There's the technology

Which is a joke. Okay. And there's the price of the Bitcoin. I I I can't I'm not gonna comment on the price because who cares? Right, exactly. This whole thing has been one total Circle jerk, spun by I I'm not gonna go through the names, but look at the cast of characters. The the the big names. All you need to know. Yeah. Scaramucci. Cat Kathy Wood, Scaramucci, Novogratz. They're out in public.

I mean I guess it's legal, but n Novograd says it's gonna be five hundred thousand. So you got some guy walking down Middle America going Well, this guy says he's a billionaire. Yeah. Didn't r didn't realize he blew up his hedge fund at Fortress. Yeah um he says it's five hundred thousand. Why don't I have all my money in it?'Cause he says it's the new the new thing. I I mean That's why here we don't have the disclaimer like you'll see on any other

uh yeah uh yeah yeah investment thing. Why? Because we are overt about not making recommendations. Okay. If someone wants to sue me or us, I'm guessing they try and sue me before you. Uh you know, there there's no advice here other than just use fucking common sense. How how these guys can continue to go and make these projections Uh it's just an opinion. I don't know. Yeah. I don't know, but I'll tell you something.

A couple more oligarchs go down in a helicopter. And by the way, just so you know, I have a a little understanding of this. Dying in a helicopter crash. Isn't that easy? No. Okay. Because if the engine stops, okay. It it's so fucking auto r it auto rotates down. Yeah. You might get you might be amazing. I've watched it. You get a guy who wants to fly somewhere? Yeah. Yeah. You get a guy who wants to fly in clouds in the mountains.

That's stupid. Okay. Did somebody somebody canceled at the last minute? If there's ever your if if your passenger ever cancels at the last minute, get off the plane. How many how many people? fall to their death out of the window of their hospital room. It's just it's just amazing. You know? It's just astounding SPF? Yep. SPF, yep. Down in uh the Bahamas. Bahamas. Yep. I I hope you sleep well tonight'cause there's some guy with a laser pointed.

long range sniper rifle. Yeah, but I wonder if like like do do you know anyone that had money in FTX? I I don't traffic in that crowd. So no. Right. And and no, and neither do I. But I I mean I tra I won't say I traffic in that crowd, but I have a a vast uh variety of people from all walks of life that I call friends. Um, and I don't know anyone that had money at FTX. Um So I just wonder like if all the outrage and um And like the noise about it because we

It's definitely a big story in our bubble, but like when I went home for the holidays, like no there's a lot of people that don't give a shit about FTX and that the whole crypto thing and it's just small it's small down on the on their radar. Um But I just thought it was just bizarre. Um that

He's done the publicity tour. He hasn't been charged. There's, you know, millions of dollars missing. But there hasn't really been like that real backlash like they're at like yeah I mean y you've all seen the memes where the Wall Street Journal came out and said like, Oh, the like you know, the money's all gone and somebody crosses it out with a Sharpie and says fraud, I fixed it.

It's just been a it's just been a fascinating tale. Like you got Maxine Waters coming out and being like, Sam, it would be nice if you could come down and answer a couple questions for us, you know? Really? Really? Oh yeah. Yeah yeah. Maxine Waters. Dude, and then it's followed up in the comments, then you go to the comments and there's ten pictures of him Arm around Maxine Waters, buddy buddy, blowing each other kisses. Um, yeah, dude, it's just it's just a fascinating uh

you know, difference the way that made off was hair. If I said she was dumber than a rock, I'd be disparaging the rock. Disparaging the rock, yeah, yeah, yeah. Dude, I've had the great fortune of listening to her ask questions. I forget what she was asking questions about. I don't think it was crypto stuff. But they were oh oh oh I I know what it was. I think she was asking questions about uh

The GameStop nonsense when the GameStop thing was coming on and they had that guy, deep fucking value, in there, and she was asking him questions where it was I had to pick my jaw up off the off the floor. It was they were so bad. Like she could barely read the script. So dude the system is

It's it's it's just been fascinating. And and like you said, it is watching history. Um but to see him just you know, shrug and do his little I'm gonna slouch and I and I messed up and I you know, I sorry, I wish I could do more.

It's just dude, and then he said FTX was solvent. He was like, Oh, we got four billion dollars right after we filed the bankruptcy. Yeah, just the the lies and the story and the plot line, it's it's real crime drama unfolding right in front of us. Um yeah, it's just been it's just been riveting and thanks to you, I have zero involvement in it because Well I listened to yeah thanks the Morris. Like ninety three. Mm-hmm. No, I think it's a hundred and two. Yeah, okay.

Well whatever. Yeah, whatever it is. Two twenty, two twenty one, whatever it is. I I there's that saying if um If it's free, you're the product or something like that. And I I realized for me, uh This podcast has gotten me part of my process talking about the market and because remember I'd go to work with a bunch of really smart guys and we'd sit around and we'd talk all day and you know

good things happen and I because I'd managed to climb on top of everyone else I got to be claimed to be in charge, right? So I got a lot of credit for a lot of other people's work. Awesome. Um but I haven't been in that environment for a long time. And now thanks to you and thanks to Kevin and especially Lena, um This has been very beneficial to me and I I uh I'm finally starting to get in the flow again of things and

It's been a lot of fun. So I wanna thank you, Liam, first personally. Secondly, Amy for putting up with your nonsense and then uh uh everyone who uh turns up to listen. It's uh Yep. All the guys that send me messages on Twitter, the guys that send us emails, at Inside Baseballcast, at Gmail, um, and the people that leave the comments on the website, it has just been

Every day there's something to think about and talk about. Um, and it's just been it's just been a ball for me. So all those listeners, also those guys that send me emails. The guys that go to work in the morning at eight o'clock and they're like, I listen to the w I listen to the show on the way to work, um, in London, Australia, wherever they are. Um

It's been awesome. And Cash Bandicoot wanted uh a restaurant recommendation. So where have you been eating in Scottsdale? You got a you got a go to restaurant in Scottsdale? No. Okay, that's fine. You can say no. Uh Francines? Okay. Francines in Scottsdale. All right. Yeah, that's pretty good. You know, um there's a there's uh a place

Now the food's okay, but the show is incredible. Um I think it's called Ocean forty four. Okay. Cheryl Cheryl and I were in there with the our neighbors one night. We had just moved to Scottsdale. And it was a Saturday night and so outside it was just this fucking bunch of Drunk Bachelorette Party girls f and and and the party had carried on inside. So there's like this couple in their forties that are just

It's like I could tell Cheryl was just embarrassed as hell. And I'm I had like position A on this thing and I'm like it's like that's why the real estate's so expensive here. But, you know, the food... It's not New York. See, I saw a comment. Alright,'cause I saw somebody comment like th somebody somebody on the

was like, Oh, I'm I'm heading into New York tonight. Where where should I eat? It's somewhere that's tough to get a reservation. Or like I'm heading tomorrow. Where should I eat? And I was like, Come on. So First of all, I I go into the comments and they're ch it's it's just atrocious, like stuff in Times Square, you know it it it's just it was it was bad, okay? Like Grays Papaya, you know, try out try out Guy Fiery's places. So I I just stayed away from it. But like the correct answer

To me, if you're getting into town and you need to eat and you're not worried about reservation, is you're going to Blue Ribbon Bradsery down on Sullivan Street. You can go to Blue Ribbon, they might tell you you gotta wait for thirty minutes. You're gonna go in there and you're gonna get a fantastic meal.

Seven nights a week. That would be my number one spot. All right. I haven't been there in a couple of years, but I'm assuming it's it's so good. It hasn't changed. It's been there for twenty years. Yep. Go ahead. I And the thing's open till like four AM. Four AM, exactly. Yes. I used to go in there and I'd be squeezed between like NFL players. It'd be two m three hundred and fifty pound men dripping in diamonds with a supermodel across from them. Me and my wife.

That's where the big name chefs go to eat after work. Mm-hmm. Um Yeah, like my wife. That's where my wife she would go down there and yeah, she goes. I was thinking of Amy the other day because we were Uh this is completely unrelated. I'm sure I'm gonna get total shit for it, but hey, fuck it. It's free. So we were before the pandemic or maybe towards the end of the pandemic, we had a family dinner at um

Marivana. Okay. And of course, you know being a borderline substance abuser, they have this horseradish alcohol vodka there, which I I just cannot I cannot help myself. So I'm I'm fucking three sheets to the wind. And one of my kids has a friend there and uh young lady, nice young lady, but I made some comment which I of course thought was very funny and she was like All old men think they're funny. And I didn't I and and and I and I didn't wanna embarrass my

daughter. Mm-hmm. So I bit my tongue. But that that kind of has stuck with me. So I was thinking about it, it came to mind the other day'cause somebody said something about, you know, rich guys don't think they're funny. And I thought about that that young pretty woman who made the comment about old people and I came up with something like, Yeah.

And guess what? All cute young girls are think they're gonna go up grow up beautiful and they're gonna look like their mom, except they're gonna weigh forty pounds more, and they're gonna be going out on Thursday night drinking Chardonnay at Amy's restaurant, bitching about their husbands. Amy had a lady come in Amy had a lady come in last night. She was you know all disheveled and

She's got takeout and she's slugging a martini. Amy conductor and goes, Are you okay? And the lady goes, No. She and she had like a two year old, a two year old and a three month old at home. By themselves. Right. And Amy w yeah, no, d no, no, Dad's home. Dad's home in the closet doing the show, hoping the kids aren't burning the house down.

But the lady was the lady said no. I thought the lady who was n having the martinis was a client. Yeah. No, no, no, it was. It was. It was the same, it was the same exact situation.