Corrections, Election, Introspection.

Greetings and welcome to Inside Baseball with old Chestnut. I'm Liam Allen with my friend Morse Sachs. How you doing, MB? I'm doing great, pal. How about you? Uh I got sick kids. Um I forgot that I I sound like uh I sound like this, but uh I'm doing well. I'm doing great. Uh it's good to see you. We had a nice little weekend. Yeah. Lots of people looking for you.

Yeah, I get a lot of notes of concern, you know, like did old chestnut break a hip or you know, stuff like that. So thanks for your concern, everyone, but I'm I'm still here. Good. Good. You were just ramping up for our three hour special today because From what I've from what I understand, the bar has been raised for podcasts. And if you're gonna have a show that everyone and if you wanna get ten million listens in twenty four hours, you gotta do three hours.

Dude, Joe Rogan lets talk for three hours, bro. We've we've done like what? We've done like a 90 minute and like and you pour in sweat and done after that. Like you go take a nap. I well I gotta take a nap normally, but I Three hours. Who that's uh you know. What do they what do they got to talk about for three hours? Everything. Dude, they covered it all, apparently. I haven't listened to it. I've seen clips and snippets.

But first of all, my question is, who are these people that have three hours to listen to those two noodleheads chit chat about God only knows what? I don't know. I don't know. I'm still kind of amused by the guy who complained that we played an hour of fish and didn't give him a heads up and that he didn't think enough that maybe after twenty minutes maybe we were having a laugh. But uh I was I was uh trolling through some old material and I saw a comment uh that someone had made.

referring to a reference I made to something, he called me fucking obtuse. And I I kinda chuckle at these things because, you know, you listen to me for ninety minutes. What's that say about you? Um Anyway, um a couple of uh uh corrections from last week's podcast. I you know, we we aim to The um radical transparency. Radical transparency. Um so first thing is I had mentioned that our temple was spending five hundred dollars

I'm I'm still gonna get this wrong. Five hundred dollars a month for security. The number was five thousand. Yeah. So um so put that in your pipe. Um the other thing was Somebody had asked about an ETF that generated um You know, kind of like T bill returns but were capital gains. And I had dismissed it by saying that. You know, I did a quick review, too quick as it turns out, and I thought it was based against

a total return swap. But no, uh one of the listeners was nice enough to point out it was an options transaction. And boy, did I feel humiliated because

It's as straightforward as they come. There's a thing you probably heard tossed around the schoolyard when you were a young lad called the put call parody. Yeah, yeah, of course. Put call back. Yeah. Well, so it's one of these little things that we were able to use to our advantage. Um So people are familiar with what a put is and they're generally familiar with what a call is. But because of the way cash flows through these things, if you buy an option, you have to put up the money, which means

Uh you're not earning any interest on that money. And then um if you sell an option, you are allowed, I don't know whether you get to take the proceeds or earn interest on the proceeds, but If it goes against you, you're not obligated to put up money. You can post collateral. Collateral earns interest. Hence this. accumulation of what we call put call parity. So his options get way in the money.

the in the money option goes up in value. And so if you want to buy it, you you have to pay out the money. And therefore you're going to forego interest. So if you take a put. Which is a right to sell. And you add a call to it, which is Right to buy, you've created a synthetic option. And because of the way the cash flows. That structure can impute an interest rate. And what these guys are doing is doing many of these put-call parodies.

And um typically is a trade done by market makers on the floor because there's a lot of commissions and the floor members pay to minimis commissions. Plus they usually don't have any money. So they're the ones having to pay up to do these trades. Um typically back when I was younger, Drexel Burnum used to do a lot of these things. And um whoever was put in charge of doing that, um they'd have the job for four or five months. But what would happen would be on kind of expiration day.

They ran the risk that the market was at that strike of the put call parity and because options didn't get exercised till four o'clock you didn't know what your position was and so you had what we called pin risk. And that's a risk you don't want. And inevitably it would blow up on people. So tell me about pin risk. Come on. Well, so pin risk is when you have a bunch of securities expire at the same time.

And so um one of these trades we liked to do a great deal of and one of the listeners mentioned he did it. So we would let's say buy a a um put on a cash security for, you know, August thirty one Xpr. And we'd sell a put for August thirty one. So when August 31 would come along, some of these options that we owned. um were worth very little, but the options that we were short were worthless. But we owned the options and someone had sold them to us. So at that moment

You know, they didn't know what their delta was, meaning they didn't know what their position was. So from time to time you would get lucky that you'd accumulate a lot of these worthless options. And if you did enough of these things, they'd get scattered across the calendar. And every so often you'd get lucky on one, which means some guy would get unlucky.

Yeah. You know what I found in a more uh in the time we're in now with such religious strife, there are many religions that weren't allowed to charge people interest. So that's where the Jews entered into banking because it was considered kind of a dirty profession charging charging interest. I don't think the Arab world allows to charge interest. You know, jacking up oil prices.

You know, human sex trafficking, that's fine. Interest nishkit. Um, but you know, had they been smart enough to understand put call parity, which they're not. You know, they there wouldn't need to the Jews. I think we'd all have been a little off better off back then, but uh build a uh a a necessary niche. Yeah. Everyone wants to have a niche, right?

You know who has a need is tether. You want to talk about Tether or do we not want to I do I no I do want to talk about uh tether. So you know um we've said we've talked about this ad nauseum, but two years ago, dude, we banged on this drum, we banged on this drum. to where we had to stop talking about it because it just because we were wrong. We were wrong. Okay. You know, you can it's like me with the gold. Okay, great.

It's higher than I bought it, but I didn't make any money, so I'm wrong. Okay. We were wrong about Tether. I was convinced it was a fraud. History may prove me to be right, but I'm glad you brought it up because I like to go on record. If that thing turns out to be a fraud, okay, the anarchy in the financial markets you are gonna see. will be talked about for a hundred years. I I I think the stock market would go down. 40-50%. Wow. Yeah. People would be running to the banks to take cash out.

Remember when you had that that tiny bank out in California goes south? Yep. And the panic that ensued after that? S V B, yeah. This this would be A large multiple of that. Um yeah, I've read the Doom prophecies. I mean the Wall Street Journal. So the Wall Street Journal, I do I don't know why they do this on like Friday afternoon.

Thursday afternoon, right before the election. Like it just gets swamped by the news cycle. But it's you know, it should be a headline. And the Wall Street Journal reported it. Not that the journal is is exactly, you know, digging dirt, but when the journal reports it And then the tether guy comes out.

And says the journal is totally false. We've we've been on the up and up, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But the facts don't change that like the like they've never been audited. They don't have an accountant. It's that you know, blah, blah, blah. There's million red flags to it. Okay.

So yeah, I mean it it made the headline Friday and I but like dude it's We vigorously object. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Dude it but and but like and like it's made noise on Twitter and it's just the same thing that we talked about. Nobody cares. Oh. Nobody cares, dude. I know. I know.

All right. Well, we've been kicked offline. MB's in the basement in Canada and is I know he's back. He's back. All right. He's got a little bit of a choppy Wi Fi. But um Yeah, if we looked at the calendar, if we looked at the calendar, it's two years. It's gotta be It could have been like three years ago that we were banging on tether, you know? Yeah, well, you know, when you're wrong, you're wrong.

Um being wrong speaking of being wrong, I need to add to my list of wrongs. Um and I didn't get a chance two weeks ago to do it. Um, but the Goldman Sachs earnings came out, okay? Yeah. Are you are you gonna let me do it? I see the I see No please. Please. Okay, so we also banged on DJ D Saul, dude. We made a living banging on banging on David Solomon.

Here we are, X amount days and whatever, a month, a year later, maybe two years later, he's quit DJing, all right, and he's brought Goldman Sachs back to the precipice of greatness, which they once had. Okay. Show show co-producer Leslie Harris again reminded me to not confuse greatness with a bull market. Okay. So Leslie is current that. All right. So

Maybe the market helped him, but let's face it, Goldman Sachs, I think, hit record high to earn. I mean it got whacked on Friday, but but he has he has almost brought it full circle. The exodus. The exodus of top executives had they put a tourniquet on that, okay? And they've brought back a bit of the gravitas that Goldman Sachs had for decades with him at the helm. So I have to give him I mean, I I'm on the ver he could be Wall Street executive of the year because of the and the turner.

Because of the turnaround. Okay. Because it hasn't happened at Wells Fargo. It hasn't happened at City. Okay. So that hasn't happened. Those two are still in the mud. Whereas Goldman Sachs has come back. They've put on a a good comeback. Now this is again, this is kind of like applauding the Yankees for a thirtieth World Series. So I kinda gotta tone it down a bit. But

We hammered that guy. We used to hammer him. And he has brought the firm back. Well well, it was, you know, low hanging fruit. I mean, you know hard not to, you know. I I could have done it. You and I could have done that. Well, I I I guess being a rapper is a form of music, I you know. I I don't know. Okay. I don't know. I just wanted to set that up because I I did see I I saw that they did well. They killed it on earnings and you know. So Dave, good job.

Well, I that's at least a 40 lot bonus, right? 40, 50. Gotta be. It's gotta be. He's in line. Unbelievable. You wanna you wanna bury Ackman? You wanna take five minutes to hammer him?

What do you do now? Don't even bother, dude. He's just he won't stop on Twitter. He will not stop arguing with people. He it's just loss after loss, day after day. It he just there's people serious people have no business on Twitter. There is no good that can come from it and they just don't understand this. They think it's I remember I stuck my two in that s toe in that swamp and I was searely dismissed. Um there's still a letter in my file, my employment file about that.

Yeah, the internet doesn't forget, dude. Um so anyway, let's talk about the tenure. You want to talk about the tenure? Because apparently the tenure is screaming messages to Well, you may have these statistics better than I do, but As of Friday's close, the two-year was four oh nine and the long bound was five percent. Now my math isn't that good, but that's what's that? It's certainly positive. Well, I got the two year at four point one and I got the ten year at four point two.

Yeah, you got bad data, buddy. I got the the two year at 4.1, okay, and I got the 10 year at 4.2, and I got the 30 at 4.5. All right. Ten spread is fourteen points. Where are you what are you looking? Got some Canadian Yeah, this must be in metric. Um Bloomberg with you or something? I did actually, um, you know, I'm up with my g grandchildren and I turned on the Bloomberg and copied down the two-year rate, the 10-year rate, and the 30-year rate.

Just in the odd chance you'd quiz me on them and either Yeah, I wrote them down wrong or something, but uh the curve's positive. Yep. 14 positive positive by a lot. Almost a whole almost a hundred basis points. So I do recall at some point. after the Fed at Ease thing, I I thought they had made a mistake and that I was moving my long dated paper. into short data paper and that that's worked so far. I've been tempted um

to move out the curve. But after numerous discussions with life coach life coach Leslie Harris, I've concluded sitting on my hands earning, you know Eight percent Treasury bill raise. What are you getting eight percent?

Somebody asked me somebody asked me that last week because you were said you you said you were getting like nine percent in the treasury market and somebody was like I have to ask, where's MB getting his nine percent? Where's he getting these I have the two you're written down at four oh nine. Okay. Yeah, that's close enough. And the funds rate's five and a quarter. Yeah. So, you know, it's getting pretty close. Um The um the nine percent number

might be me reflecting on some of these bank preferred shares. Okay, yeah, yeah that I that I don't like to speak of because

So our pals at Doomberg, who you know, I think these guys walk on water. They put out a a publication On investing in energy. Oh no, and you know right down the middle. They pitch you fucking slow pitch meatballs, dude. I read the first sentence and I'm like, dude, they're writing to MB. He's gonna eat this for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. It's unbelievable. Uncanny. So I um I it's uh an article about energy, which is one of my great investment f fuck ups. Um

And uh so I started listening to it. And of course the grandkids don't wanna hear about it. So um you know, I gave'em a bottle and went back to listening to Doomberg. Um and uh Um they start out with the first fifteen minutes of talking about We're not investment advisors. It's like, of course you are. Yeah. You know, it's like it's like Kevin Muir putting out these boilerplates. things about you know. Yeah. Yeah. We don't bother with that. Our strategy is fuck you, sue us.

Can you imagine somebody standing up in court playing the first 15 minutes of one of our shows and then claiming We're putting out investment advice. Lost money on that. I would pay for that. That would be hysterical. Um, there's still time. Um but uh I um I was discussing with uh Dr. Harris. You know, when you get to be a little older, like he and I have.

You you get the habit of just kind of sticking your head out of the window in the morning, take a deep breath. You can smell which way the wind's blowing. And sometimes you start to feel like something's just not right. And we both had, I don't want to speak for him too much, but um we both had that feeling like we're due for something. To go south in a hurry. You know, I know we don't want to talk about the Middle East, but that is far from stable.

Yesterday apparently a Israeli Palestinian drove a truck into thirty people in a bus stop. Yeah, I saw that. And you know Really? And somebody did that over here. Yeah, I remember the West Side Highway? Remember? Is that is that what we've been reduced to? And you know, I I We have a former government representative who's a diehard listener. And he sent us a picture.

of a young woman he had seen at one of these rallies, kind of wondered, how long would she last in Gaza? And the answer is what they wanted to do with her. Was it sex slave? She'd have been there a while. Was it I think has the market Price that in? No. The Middle East is not priced in. I don't I don't I don't think so. I don't think so. It's it's be people become inured to it. Yeah. You know, so...

Lebanon launches a bunch of missiles, then Israel retaliates and yep, but they go back and forth and stuff like this. And You know, I I keep coming back to the stuff I've read about history and This ain't you know, this ain't even the beginning of the end. Cause as long as someone's lobbing missiles at you. It ain't stopping. Yeah. There's no negotiation. There's no nothing. And uh you know, just kind of rhetorically asked.

United States started lobbing missiles at Canada. How long would that go on for? Yeah. Yeah. I I d I don't know. I mean, you can argue Apples and oranges though. Those guys been lobbing missiles for a thousand years though. So if it goes on for a thousand years, you're kinda like, all right, you know Well that's that's the point, right? That's the point, which is why when I see these cows kids rioting.

They're in college, they're supposed to be reading books. Read some books about what the Russians did to the German people after World War Two. Read about, and this I owe Anthony Peters a debt of gratitude. He got me to read the book. And I probably get it wrong. So I I ask to be given a little room, but the battle of Verdun in France. Where it was just the meat grinder. Now I don't know whether it was Verdun or Arden.

But the killing that humans are capable of is epic. And you got these guys in the Middle East dancing around shooting off little rockets. Dude, that ain't how that's gonna end. It's gonna end with the M, the Moab. And then according to Hamas, eight hundred people will have died, nine hundred of them are women and children, and three hundred of them were s you know, some other minority. Um

It's just not gonna end well. And uh that to me, I think, is along with the the the potential tether situation. You're gonna learn a lesson about who's swimming naked uh if those things happen. Um

It's pretty scary. I mean, I don't you know. Um What about the election? You got the el the is the election still the like you s you still worried about that? Can the election whack whack the market? Not really? Uh yes, but only if something goes sideways like somebody wins and then the other guy says no it was fraud and there's a there's a there's a uh inappropriate change of power. Yeah. That that would be bad.

Yeah. Yeah, it would be really bad. But you know, whether you got, you know, bozo or mamala. You know, they're all idiots. And um is one guy's policy better than another? I you know. We were discussing tariffs. here up in Canada uh at breakfast and took the bait. Guys took the bait. You're talking about fucking tariffs at Sunday morning breakfast.

You need your head examined. Okay. And you should be I I I I do and I've got it scheduled for December. Your son in law your son in law should say, Not in this house, not right, not at breakfast. Are we doing are we doing a tariff discussion with the grandkids? Okay. Well, you gotta train him young. Secondly, he um Everything he touches is affected by tariffs. And tariffs are inflationary. Most people. Don't notice them or notice'em subtly. But they're generally how

uh governments get out of the debt that they acquire, right? It's the um Yep. What is Gabe call Dave called the the ruining of the rentier or something? I don't know, those French guys. They got a language all their own. Although when it comes to futures, they can't come up with their own terms. They didn't have a term for the cheapest to deliver. So what do they choose? Le cheapest to deliver. Now how I I mean, I d I took French in high school.

So Lu is masculine, La is feminine. I don't know how cheap it's to deliver is masculine, but hey, so be it. You know, us D A I guys who are vulnerable, we gotta take our victories where you can get them. Yeah, yeah.

And it just in terms of the DAI stuff, you know, me being a j a Jew, which is a minority, I know it doesn't feel like it, but uh that's how we get around our DEI representation. Um You know, a number of uh friends of mine uh Who I've spent time on the bike like you have seen me at less than my finest moments, and they know I'm up here visiting my grandchildren and they wondered how long before grandpa was dropping the F bomb and uh

It's like oops, too late. And they asked what age I thought was appropriate to introduce the C word. And I thought I don't know to get your pen you've got a daughter, but I don't know, teenager. Yeah, probably a teenager, okay. Yeah, that's probably no yeah, late teens, okay.

Yeah. If we were in Britain if we were in Britain, it would be different. Probably by like eight years old, then it's acceptable in Britain. It it means something different there. I I don't know how. Right. Right. Right. I don't know. I don't know. Those brutes are smooth. So talk to me about the tariff discuss d discussion. What was what was the the take from the from the from our friends uh above the border? Well just in a

You know, it's fraud. You know, you're not the Chinese aren't paying it, you're paying it. Yeah. And but but, you know, Bozo's Bamboozling everybody thinking he's just he's pulling a con. I don't know. He said he's gonna knock off the federal income tax too. That was what he said yesterday. So Yeah. How do you feel about that? Well, I I think it's only fair, you know, Obama's snuck in that Medicare tax on unearned income. That that's not cricket.

And by the way, I work pretty hard to earn my unearned income. How dare they call it unearned? Right, right.

Um and Leslie are still you and Leslie are still waiting for something. You guys are still urging caution. You're not pulling the trigger. You're gonna sit and wait. What what are we waiting for? Do we have a timeline on this? Well, y you know, you can't put timelines on black swan. I mean, I don't know. I I just something's gonna happen. It it fucking always does. You know, and and uh that's why uh I've wondered.

Over the years, why have I survived? It's it's just because, you know, I'm constantly urging caution. And eventually something happens and then old chestnut gets to sort through the rubble. And pick up some pieces of this and that and uh Seems to work for me. For sure. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. Dude, it's I mean you watch I I mean

Um I'll talk about the SPY. I mean the market finally we got a week where we didn't we didn't rip another, you know, record breaking high. We actually knocked a l what, eight tenths of a percent off the week, but It's been, I mean, dude, you saw Tesla. Tesla was up twenty percent this week. The banks did well. Oh Cher Cheryl has a Tesla, okay? She loves it. I'm a passenger in the Tesla because Cheryl drives the thing because I can't figure out how to drive the fucking thing.

As a passenger, the thing blows. Okay. Get in the fucking door. Like if you're in one of those crises where the car is submerged in water, just give up. That door ain't go that door ain't open. Yeah. I mean you can say hey hey Alexa, opa I don't know, open the door. You're dead. Um You can't you can't you cannot but the Dude, you have a friend that made a fortune on Tesla. And I Yeah looking back, I mean, if you look at the chart, you cannot, you cannot

I know Kevin Muir likes to to sniff around it. I know uh the blind squirrel likes to sniff around it. I'm glad you mentioned the blind squirrel. I'll tell you, I wanted uh I made a little note that I missed. Kudos to the blind squirrel. That guy, I would subscribe to that thing. If only to see his cartoon. They're fucking spectacle spectacular. They really are.

It's an entertaining thing because they'll put him in a sentence too and you gotta like work it into the sentence. It's fantastic. Yeah. And he's a nice guy. The best, dude. He's a good listen too. Rupert Mitchell, the blind squirrel. Everyone go find him on Twitter. All right, get his newsletter. It's awesome. Rupert Mitchell, he's in Australia. You get an you get an early edition. Okay, so like Sunday, five o'clock. You'll get a nice note from Rupert waking you up for Monday morning.

Um he's got some great swag too. Oh yeah, he's the best, dude. I got my Bryant Squirrel hat right here. I got my winter hat. I'll take it out. Um, but yeah, dude, those guys, these are smart guys, Kevin Muir, Leslie Harris, you know, and everyone is taking a couple pot shots at Short and Tesla, but you just you cannot do it. You ca it just uh it's there's a c there's a cult. A cult, dude. There is a cult behind it. Okay. And you cannot mess with it. It's really amazing.

Anyway, any I mean they look at the nonsense shit that they came out with. Like the Robo Taxi and the robots and all that stuff. Dude, twenty and then they you know, the earnings weren't great and they still went up twenty four it is fascinating dude. Um it is just it is really it'll be looked back in history as as a just a fascinating phenomenon. Um and like the wealth that it created for people and he's so divisive. You got

s really smart people that'll come out and say he's he's brilliant. He's going to the moon. He's the smartest guy in the room. And then there's other equally brilliant people that are like he's a fucking liability. He shouldn't have security clearance. He's a loose cannon, blah blah blah blah blah. But at the end of the day, dude, if you own that stock, you are you you're making money.

You know, we're in the midst of a nationwide crisis. This is serious. That you've probably Which one? There's not enough. saline solution for the hospitals. Whoa. Like now my understanding is that's water and salt. Yeah. Yeah. Which are readily available. But Whoever's in charge of taking that and putting it in the bag and making sure it's sterile, they're they're not getting it done. I had a doctor mention it to me last week and then

There was an article in the paper about it. So I sent it on to our colleagues. At Doomberg. 'Cause they've been talking about salt water and lack of water. I'm hoping they can figure out because that would it'd be like us getting sued. It would help their their publication, right? Um, but can you imagine the state of the country? You got two bozos barking over who worked at McDonald's for who long.

Or and there's not enough saline solution for people to operate. Wake up. Yeah, no, I know. I I I got part of Uh debates. motoring through um YouTube. Mm-hmm. Is that is that okay? I know I'm verboten on Tether, but okay. So they talked about how Kami fucked up a question and I wanted to see that just because I am amused by people in tough spots not finding the right word. Because you know we're up to what's the number?

Half a million downloads? Yeah. Yeah. We're like the fucking mailman of podcasts. Yeah. Week after week. Week after week, we deliver, you know, a good product at a fair price. You know, try and keep it family oriented, you know, the whole thing, right? Um they can't put a sentence together. Anyway, um the guy who's debating Uh Cammie says three times in four seconds how he was raped as a child.

I I don't know what that's got to do with the election. And then a this is a funny funny I think funny. You may think it's obnoxious, but Camel looks at the the camera and says, I'm the product of a middle class home. That's class. I was raised in a middle class home. I know. So my oldest daughter, incredibly proud of, you know, I've mentioned too many times. national fencing champion went to that anti Semitic

School of Northwestern. I'm renouncing my Northwestern degree by the way, officially. Okay. Not that I have one, but she was talking about She was somewhere. And they were talking about Greenwich being a middle class town. And she was a teenager, and it it it's lost without seeing the expression on her face, but she's kind of rolling her eyes saying You know, I I go with my dad on a private jet. I I don't really think that's middle class. I

And you know I've been on a rant on what a suck-ass town Greenwich is. So you know that uh idea uh like if you got a huge boulder. You can't move it, but if you can get to to rocking a little bit.

I'm starting to get that boulder to rock a little bit'cause we're dinner with a couple of people who are you know, Travis and his wife Katie, who are salt of the earth, really nice people, and were the local Italian restaurant in Port Chester and Out of the blue shows like People in Greenwich are just assholes. And I'm like, Huh?

She goes, yeah, I was trying to drive down the avenue today and some guy in this SUV just starts driving backwards up the avenue, honking, you know, waving for me to get out of his way. You know, what's going on around here now? Everything I've been saying for months now, people are afraid to ride their bikes on the road. So, you know, if I see another window of opportunity, if I walk into a house that's for sale. Sold. Yeah. Yeah. It worked last time.

When do you are you gonna decamp for Arizona anytime soon? Will you be decamped? Yeah, yeah, but you know, that's need to know. Yeah, okay. Um We're still up in Canada and I haven't gotten my papers on when we're being allowed to return back into the country. I suppose it depends how this podcast goes. You notice that the tape to the screen, no mention of Trudeau. Who? Yeah.

I I am I did see did you see this somebody is predicting a negative non farm payroll number? I did see that, dude. They said what if? What if you get a negative? What if you get a negative? Yeah. Yeah. It's gonna be wrong like the rest of'em. Well revise it. Exactly. They said, Well it's that and then what about the revisions? They were like, Wait until you see the revisions. Are you gonna see Yeah, I mean

Dude, it's tarot cards, those numbers, okay? Like re and you know, I at best it really is. I mean, these are old points that we've made about these, like the foreign the the far non foreign So look, I I won't speak for you because I know you've participated Uh, in the equities to some degree, although I don't know. It's none of my business. Um, but even Torsen Slock. that stalwart of the equity market has admitted that don't expect the same games gains that you've seen recently and

You know, a lot of it's just the math. So let's imagine stocks were to go up. 3% every year, and just a perfect line, right? Well, there's going to be years they're up more than three, and up years, you know, they're they're down more than three. And so When you buy makes a big difference. And so there's a huge incentive to hold on to some money till you get one of these events. Although Dr. Slock also, from what you sent me,

says there's a lot of cash on the sideline. And I I do get that feeling you see these funds like BlackRock, um, Blackstone. K K E they're sitting on a ton of cash and So we have this office building we have built in Manhattan. It's fully leased out. And in three or five months we're gonna go to sell it. And I was talking to one of my partners, he's like You know, you think there's gonna be some there to buy it? And I'm like Dude, there's so much money around.

I said, go home and try and do this. Imagine you're a portfolio manager and somebody dumps$500 million on your desk and says invest it. Where are you going to put it? I've thought about that. I mean, obviously there's many hedge funds I'd be eager to give that money to. Absolutely. Millennium. I want to give a lot of it to Millennium. Yeah, especially in the pods. No way they get the fees.

And no one blows up. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Um gotta buy a ton of two year. What are you gonna do? You're gonna buy the the first thing you're gonna do is you're gonna how much of that are you gonna put in the in the team trying to do that? A lot of it? I'm gonna put a lot of it, you know, probably two years and in and I'm gonna start sniffing around in the credit markets because there's a lot of stuff that is probably very well collateralized.

You know, everyone's written off the New York office space market for dead, right? Yet we just leased a hundred thousand square foot building On the offered side. Wow. Yeah. You know, how many times have they said New York is dead? Yeah, no, yeah, I agree. Yeah. Same thing with the rentals. Like you can't rent an apartment in New York City. You know, after COVID you couldn't get a truck to move your shit out. Now apartment comes on the market. If you don't take it, it's gone.

That nar that narrative is fading um of the you know, the death of New York. Well think of it like this. If you're a financial guy, where are you gonna hang your hat? Wichita? Absolutely not. You gotta be in Let's see. You're not going to Florida. You're not going to Dallas. I know though that those were try those are have both been like bandied or or ballyhooed as as the next up-and-coming financial centers.

Spare me. If you're not in the city or like at least in the tri-state, I you can go to Jersey. If you gotta go to Jersey, fine. But like you gotta be up here. You gotta be in Boston or New York. Oh Kathy Woods doing fine down in Florida.

Let me read Doc let me re let me go back to that treasury market thing about with Dr. Slock because Doc Slock's lined up a good one this morning. All right. So this is Torsten Slock of Apollo. All right. And we love his emails. Uh and the the headline of the email is a lot of money on the sidelines coming out. And he starts, I love he's so he he he commits to his. He's a good writer. US households are sad.

When the Fed funds rate was zero, the number of households with a Treasury Direct Account where you can buy and sell U.S. government bonds was about$700,000. So like Doc Slock, let's let's pump the brakes a little here. With US households are savvy because How many people in America? Five hundred and fifty million and we only got seven hundred thousand with a Treasury Direct account? That Treasury Direct account is not the easiest website, I have to tell you.

Okay, it's a it is br it is embarrassing. Okay. So anyone that has used the Treasury Direct account knows like, God forbid you have to like put your password in. It's like, you have to type one two three abc to get the letter like on then you got like the code with the letter thing right did you get that plastic card in the mail? I know all about it. Yeah yeah go ahead this you must love that.

There was a time where they were issuing savings bonds and there was some artificially high rate on them. And so You know, genetic genetically hard to pass up a good deal. I went and I bought the limit, which was not insane, but it you know, it was like five or ten grand. And so you get these paper Treasury bonds, uh you know, savings bonds, just like the old days. And I put them in a plastic bag and I stuck them in a safe. And there they lay for like

20 years. And I go to I go to get my passports out and I see this plastic bag with these savings bonds in it. And it was like fucking prices right. I start counting, it was like 50, 100, 50, 200, and I didn't know when it was gonna stop. And and you know, how many people can you tell that to without sounding like a total cunt? And so I'm riding with Ed and I like Ed, forgive me, I gotta tell someone about this. So just note to my children who are listening.

Hopefully I'm here for a long time. But the day I passed. Before you seal up everything, get a backhoe and start digging in the backyard. Because for all I know, there's coffee cans filled with hundreds of thousands of dollars. But to to talk about Tet Treasury Direct. I got like 60 of these bonds and you gotta type the fucking serial number in each and then you gotta photocopy, then you gotta mail it in, then you gotta verify it. And

You know, it's like, what's the name of your best friend from junior high school? Of course. Your first name. Your first pet's name. I know. Yeah, your first pet's name. Yeah. So doc stock is up. US households are savvy because you got to be really tech savvy to just log on to the Treasury Direct account. So once you've logged on to the Treasury Treasury Direct Account. Four million people. So we went from seven hundred thousand

Okay, bright bulbs on the tree out of five hundred fifty million. We went from seven hundred grand to four million households with a treasury direct account. That's pretty impressive. Okay, so good job, America. Everybody listen to Ibwok, they're all right, I might as well buy some treasuries. Risk free. I got a good rate. I'm gonna buy some T bills, all right?

Combined with the 6.5 trillion currently in the money market funds, the key question is what households will do with their Treasury holdings and money market holdings as the Fed continues to cut interest.

You think they're I think they're gonna buy an office building in Manhattan. You're gonna say they're gonna carry and roll it? No. You know, to tell you about eating your own cooking. When Cheryl and I were living in Chicago, she was working for Pricewaterhouse. I was working for Continental Bank. Every pay period, we took out like a hundred bucks in Boss Savings Bond, which I then fifty years later had to type a fucking

The whole thing. Like it's fifty bucks here. Use it as a bookmark. But um yeah. Yeah, I... Do you think he's inferring they're gonna put their money into equities? Uh the most likely outcome is a steeper curve whereby households will withdraw money from the front end of the curve. and put it into credit and other high yielding fixed income assets. Yeah, they're not that's their that's their chunk that's that's what I'm waiting to do. Right? Isn't that what I said to move out of the long end? Um

So if the Fed eases again, and apparently that's in the zeitgeist, that curve's gonna steepen some more. I think those I think those people are unhinged that think he's gonna When? Well, they're gonna do I know I've heard the same thing and I'm like, these are fucking idiots that are trying to trying to pressure him and they're trying to get that in the zeitgeist and and make it a conversation. Dude, the mortgage rates are went to seven and whatever, six and a half, seven.

You what what did you ease? I don't know. The uh people don't understand the yellow curve is a little bit like a teeter totter. You know, you get some gravitationally challenged kid to sit on one side. And he flips the the tiny kid off the other side. It's a little bit how the the curve works. Interesting. Um

Yeah, yeah. I think I stole that from Richard Feynman. I'm not sure. Um, but the uh The measing is not necessarily great because you know uh you you notice any more groceries for your dollar? Talk about how about the housing market? How about you gonna buy a house? Forget the groceries. How about what they did to the So we have close friends who I believe just had an accepted offer on a house. Where? Up in uh Wilton or Reading. Okay. Yep. Yep. Yep. Yep. Um

Uh that's the first time I've heard of like a normal human buy being being able to buy a house. Yeah, I believe it. I'd love to know what their mortgage rate was, if they even bought We needed a mortgage. Um, but I'd love to know what what the mortgage is as of whatever, November first. Um

And what they paid over and yada yada yada, because you get you get different stories from the housing market. I get people telling me that they can't sell their one point three million dollar house in West Chester. And then it's the wrong price. Thank you. Knock knock it down 150 grand. That'll be a food fight. That's what I it's gotta be. It's gotta be. Yep. No, I know. Um but I don't understand how easing rates alleviates that situation. It makes it worse.

And you know, uh I think last week I was predicting a revolution of people storming houses and granite. Apparently Venezuelan gangs have taken over apartment complexes out in California. Colorado too. Yeah. Yeah. So I you know, read history. That's what's gonna happen.

No, dude, the American public is caught up with the political debate. We're gonna fight with each other over the politics for another month, and then what? Then we'll have then we got sports, we'll pay attention to the sports and the Taylor Swift and then there'll be a new crisis that like we'll we'll want to argue over. Um but the idea decide decided who we're formally backing

No. Although I I gotta say three hours on Rogan is impressive. The fact that he could have a conversation. Like, look, can she do th can she do a three-hour conversation? No, probably not. I i she declined Rogan. I don't know. Like, if you can't sit down for like you, anyone can talk to Rogan. Rogan is like me. I can talk. to a carpenter, I can talk to a Wall Street trader, I can talk to anyone about anything. Sit me down in a room and I got forty minutes.

I can do a show. Rogan's the same way. He sat down and he talked with Trump. I like you could three hours is a long conversation. You can't bulk. You can't really bullshit your way through the whole thing. And a lot of people came back from what again, this is anecdotal stuff, but people are like, Oh yeah, my dad watched the Trump interview, and he was actually pretty impressed by him that.

that like when you give him a chance to talk and and he's engaging and he you know, there's a lot of the political talking points that get amplified. Where he's like, he's like even the tariffs, he's like, Yeah, he's like, I gotta talk like that. He's like just talking about it. He's like you you make big points and then you we he did it. I am not going to do the an endorsement of everyone. Dude, I have to fight I was joking. I have to fight off my friend.

I have to I dude, I I love getting people going, but my friends will get asked me questions about do they dude they I've been painted as a Trump supporter, okay? Which is like comical to me, dude. I was you know. But I've been paint I like they paint me as a MAGA guy'cause I defended him on some Well, you got it no, you got an F one fifty. Yeah, exactly. Exactly. Okay, right, exactly. I'm a white male and I gotta I drive a forward pickup.

But the the I've been painted as a MAGA guy so they call me and they'll like troll me and I'll be like I'll be like and I'll take the bait and I'll be like, okay, well what about her? If you're gonna do what about him, I'm gonna do what about her. And then when I'm done mopping the floor and embarrassing them over her inability to have a conversation, her her lackluster career path.

her lackluster record as a district attorney, okay. And I don't want to hear my friends tell me, Oh, you have a daughter. How could you vote for Trump? And my answer to that was like, I want my I don't want dudes, I don't want dudes in my go in my daughter's locker room. I'm gonna start with that. Okay. That's a good place to start. Good place to start. So if we're if you want to ask me how, I have to make a binary decision. Do you want a dude with a dick in my fourth grade girl?

Fucking locker room. In in no. The answer is no. Okay, so which candidate am I going to choose? Okay, we've made a decision here. That was really easy, all right? I don't wanna get into that because to me it's the Undertaker versus Hulk Hogan. Dude, we're arguing about the Yankees and Dodgers. We're arguing about Miami football versus Alabama football. It's totally inconsequential.

None not neither of those two jabronies is making an executive decision, dude. There are people behind them. There are serious. End of discussion. It's political theater. It is political theater. You've you and it is a masterpiece. They have evenly divided the country into fifty percent blue and fifty percent red, and all that you hear is the is the debate.

And that is perfect. The public is completely divided. So the public will never riot and go to Greenwich with the pitchforks because they can't buy houses and they're hungry because they're just gonna blame the other side. They have an they already have And the target is not big government, it's their neighbor. It is their neighbor who voted for the other guy.

That is the civil discourse that will prevent the the pitchforks and the and the whatchamacallits, the the torches. Okay. Yeah. I mean of course We'll be here to broadcast live during all of these events. So keep it keep your station tuned here. We'll do an election. Just a quick word from our sponsor, Colece. Things moving a little slow. Calls. All right, in inside baseball cast at Gmail and send me, send me who you're gonna vote for and why. All right.

Since everybody seems to have an opinion and like, you know, and I know there's gonna be people that are mad at me today, Oh, Trump didn't say that, da da da she didn't say. Send me an email inside baseball cast and and I'll I'll take a I'll take a poll because let let's say, all right, the market seems to think the zeitgeist, the market seems to think that Trump is in. Trump simply think he is in, okay.

I don't see you know, I I don't know where I don't know where the great comeback for Kamala in the polls. I know we don't trust the polls and I know we don't trust the betting markets, but the like again, when I talk to people, if I had to take a poll It seems like most people I talk to are gonna vote red. Um I heard somebody say that the Democrats bud lighted their campaign. They budlighted their campaign in campaign in the sense that they've gone

so far to the liberal lunatic that there's a there's a backlash against it. Okay. You went from being the you went from being the union working class Democrat machine that was like for the little people, blah, blah, blah. You went to the purple hair, transsexual. Fucking lunatic. I you know, that's now that's the that's the end of the spectrum that you've become associated with. And there's gonna be a pushback to that, I think. Let me anybody inside baseball cat.

Dot com they should again don't want to talk about this stuff. We're not gonna I'm I'm with you. I'm sorry to drag you down. I think we should talk about tariffs.

Or like you the the money we send to Ukraine, or we haven't touched on Hamas yet today. There's there's far more on the Oh, I I can I just get the one Hamas thing in. The guy they blew up. Yeah. There's a photo of his girlfriend walking out of the rubble. Don't take the bait. Don't take the bait with a Birkenbag. No way, dude. And number one, it's hilarious. Okay.

So even though it's fake, it's gotta be fake, it is awesome. It it because when I have the ones the half the ones you see in Greenwich are fake. Oh, you go down to Canal Street. They buy the thousand dollar bag. They tell their husband the bag was a thousand. The husband gives one thousand. They blow the five hundred on something. My brother told me about this. Where he lives in Deerfield.

the husbands give the woman like a household budget to go buy groceries and shit. They go to the grocery store, they spend half the money on the groceries, half the money on the gift cards. Like to go shopping on shit. Inside tip from inside baseball. I did get a good laugh out of the picture of her with the Birkin bag. Um I immediately clicked on it and I was like, wait a minute, I was like, no fucking way.

And then uh you gotta read into it and you you then you see the real picture where it's not, but it was just perfect, you know. They were like look So you're saying no? No good. It was photoshopped in it's gotta be. But it was hilarious. Maybe they picked it up on Canal Street. Okay. Well the the Muslim the uh whatever the Muslim Association of Michigan definitely endorsed Trump. Okay. So like what are we doing here? Okay.

So I saw somebody saying like well well Allah Allah has endorsed Donald Trump. So if that doesn't tell you enough, what else do you need to know? What's the Allah has done? Hope hopefully our friends at Doomberg and the Blind Squirrel and Kevin Muir haven't been embarrassed by their association with us. But as I like to say All publicity is good publicity. And by the way, before we go, for those uh fish

Aficionados. There was a discovery made and verified that there is a second version of the fish song called Fee. Oh wow. True. It's called Fee Flat and it's an instrumental. Yes. So not only is Ed gone to 3,000 fish concerts and not heard one fee, he hasn't heard two fees. Which in terms of statistics

Is a nine standard deviation event. Imagine that, dude. That is amazing. So that that you're looking for a black swan. There's your black swan. They played golden age again last night for you. They're just relentless hammering that. Song for you, dude. I love that. I love that son. Hammering it. I told you dinner. We had family dinner two weeks ago. Middle daughter, now an entrepreneur, looks across the table and said, Dad, what price do you sell your gold at again?

Eighteen eight nineteen eighty one, nineteen fifty. I don't care. Keep asking, Maddie. Keep checking in on that gold. Put that right on the top of your list and you can watch it go up and to the right every single fucking day, dude. Silver too. Silver finally came around. I think Kevin Moore was

I remember Kevin Muir was pitching the silver. This has got to be years ago. And like back when you were doing the gold. And I was like, silver really? And then here we are. I don't even have it on my list. Um well you know, Leslie Harris got started in the silver pit. And he used to say if silver went up twenty-five cents, the next thing you know, it'd be up fifty cents. Twenty five percent in the last six months for silver, yeah.

Um all right. So away we go into another week. Let's take a look at the calendar. How far out for what do we have? We we've got the twenty seven. We got Halloween this week. Okay. And then oh I I don't know if I got the show next week and I got uh John Ford's wedding, so I don't know. Stop it, stop it.

All right, one of our friends has been dating a wonderful woman for 15 years. Okay. It's gotta be 15 years now. And they're finally getting married. And this and dude, I wouldn't be married if it weren't for this guy, because he introduced me to the guy that introduced me to my wife. So I have an I have an obligation to attend this ceremony, okay? So I will I might have a I'll try to make time. Lovely, lovely woman. Lovely woman. She's a l way too good for him.

Totally, totally. Uh but yeah. So I don't know. We'll try to make time for it, okay? Um and then we'll have the election. Jeez, we're we're staring down the back staring down the You don't uh you don't want me doing any solo podcasts, right? Uh I think you and Leslie would do it. I don't know. I don't know. You're you're part of the team, dude. It just doesn't although we are thinking of doing test marketing of a solo Субтитры сделал DimaTorzok Life coach, old chestnut.

Sponsored by Liam Allen Enterprises. If you have any thoughts on that, please inside baseballcast dot com. Yeah. Inside baseball cast at Gmail. Yeah. Yeah, something like that. All right. I want to know who Bob Cobb. Bob Cobb, I need your election take. I know Bob Bob Cobb. Everything. I want to I I need a I need an answer. Who you're voting for, Bob Cobb. And everyone else. Ethan Fanshell, I believe, is the top commenter. How about a turnaround from Bob Cobb?

What a man. What a from from from disbeliever to a member of the fold. Exactly. Exactly. So A lot of respect. Yep. Thank you, Bob, and all the the audience that uh tunes in every week. We're sorry for missing last night. Uh last week. We'll try to be back again next weekend. Um it's been a pleasure as always, my friend. Great to see you, pal.

Golden Age. Yeah, golden age. You got the booth, uh the box lined up for the the thing with the thing yet? I got rejected on wow. Yeah, my my um I'll have to go on. My transfer. My transfer Transportation request was summarily rejected. Okay. All right. I got a meeting with Handler. I got a meeting with Handler in a couple of weeks. I'll ask him if I can use the Jeffries box. Oh, I'm sure. No problem. Tell him I said it was fine. Okay. Very good.

And you know what? If he if he meanders, offer him a complimentary platinum subscription to Ibwak. Well we're going to a party. I think you're gonna be at the party. I'll see you well we'll s we'll all be at the party. Okay. Sounds good. You got the invite, right? Did you get to you maybe you didn't get an invite. Okay. Me? Bad attitude. All right, buddy. Goodbye. Take care. You be well. It's great to see you. You too, pal.