The U.S. Dollar Is Overvalued

Jens Nordvig, founder of Exante Data and Marketreader Inc., returns to Forward Guidance to provide a quantitative update on currency and bond markets.

Jens makes the case that interest rates all across the yield curve are likely headed lower as the Federal Reserve’s last hike is in the rearview mirror, and he argues that the U.S. dollar could depreciate against “risk-off” currencies such as the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and even gold. Filmed on November 22, 2023.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:16) It's Been A Busy Year

(02:36) Interest Rate Sensitivity Of U.S. Economy

(13:13) Will There Be A Recession In 2024?

(15:51) Jens' Bull Case For Rates

(22:34) Fed Will Be "Much More Relaxed" If Services Inflation Continues To Moderate

(27:56) Potential For "Big Cuts"

(30:22) An Extraordinary Summer In FX

(33:48) Jens' Bear Case For Dollar Against Gold and Risk-Off Currencies Such As Swiss Franc

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.