In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International for a deep dive into the Chinese financial system. After founding China Beige Book over 12 years ago, Leland provides a data driven assessment of the Chinese economy exploring whether China's growth model is coming to an end. Leland also discusses China's financial deleveraging, the demographics of China's population, the reversal in globalization, tensions with the U.S, conflict betw...
Mar 09, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 99
In this week's round up, Mark and I are joined by special guest Mike Green of Simplify Asset Management. This week we were focused on answering one big question: "how will sanctions and financial exclusion reshape geopolitics?" We kicked things off with a quote from Dwight Eisenhower's famous 1961 farewell address, wherein he coined the term "the military industrial complex." Eisenhower alluded to a powerful idea, which is that nations will always face pressure from without, but they must resist...
Mar 05, 2022•1 hr 20 min•Season 1Ep. 97
In this episode of “On The Margin,” Mike Ippolito is joined by anonymous analyst Mr. Blonde. Taking a break from diamond heists and bank robberies, Mr. Blonde joins us to discuss whether Jerome Powell will be forced to pivot Fed rate hikes in 2022. Mr. Blonde also shares his outlook on growth for 2022 and chats about market returns during Fed tightening cycles. They discuss how the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect markets and whether inflation is secular or transitory. -- Follow Mr. Blonde: @...
Mar 02, 2022•51 min•Season 1Ep. 97
In this week's round up, Mark and I dug into the investor uncertainty caused by the Russia Ukraine conflict. Disclaimer: war is always first and foremost a humanitarian crisis. It goes without saying that our hearts go out to Ukraine and those involved in the conflict. Mark and I focused on the markets angle because we aren't geopolitical experts and that is where our expertise lies. The most important part of this story is, of course, the human side. We began with the response in US equities to...
Feb 26, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 96
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Jurrien Timmer Director of Global Macro at Fidelity & PlanB the anonymous quant investor & creator of the Bitcoin S2F model. Jurrien & PlanB discuss the current macro forces that are driving markets from Fed rate hikes, yield curve inversion & equity market valuations. In the second half of the discussion, Jurrien & PlanB discuss valuation models for Bitcoin, how current market conditions could effect Bitcoin & w...
Feb 24, 2022•1 hr 20 min•Season 1Ep. 95
In this week's episode, Mark and I covered the rising cost of energy and the impact it's having on global economies. Next we went on to discuss record bearish sentiment in markets, and what that may signal for the days and months ahead. Next, we did an updated on "Powell Pivot Watch," and re-examined the similarities between the Fed rate hike cycle in 2018 to where we are today. We did a refresher on home prices, where they might be going in the future and the critical link between homes and fin...
Feb 19, 2022•55 min•Season 1Ep. 94
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guests Alex Gladstein, Greg Foss & Jeff Booth to discuss the ongoing Freedom Convoy Protests in Canada. We invited our guests to discuss the origins of the protests & how the situation in Canada has evolved. Tune in to hear Alex, Greg & Jeff cover why Canadian truckers are protesting, how these protests compare with Occupy Wall Street, why GoFundMe cancelled the Canadian Freedom Convoy's fund & what Bitcoin's r...
Feb 16, 2022•1 hr 3 min•Season 1Ep. 93
In this week's episode, I am joined by Forward Guidance's Jack Farley & Joseph Wang for a surprise cross-over (that we all knew was coming eventually ;) We missed Mark unfortunately who is away skiing, but he was with us in spirit and wore his bitcoin bull market socks in solidarity. We'll get em next week Mark! We kicked things off with a deep dive into the record 7.5% CPI print. We took a look at what the driving components were, headline vs core, and much more. We also questioned how much...
Feb 12, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 92
In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investments. After releasing his Capriole's 2022 Market Outlook newsletter, we invited Charles to the show for a discussion about what he expects for 2022 & beyond. Charles shares his thoughts on the macro outlook for 2022, where Bitcoin becomes a value vs momentum play, Bitcoin vs Ethereum & Bitcoin's role in the long term debt cycle. -- Capriole Investments: http://capriole.com Follow Charl...
Feb 09, 2022•45 min•Season 1Ep. 91
In this episode, Mark and I were joined by special guest Timothy Peterson to discuss a very important topic: how to properly value Bitcoin. I've included a summary of our content below, but if you are interested in finding out more info about Tim or his approach, there are lots of good resources on his website here . To kick things off, Tim gave us his framework for how to value Bitcoin, which relies on Metcalfe's Law. We talked about other networks including Facebook, Amazon, and even Tesla who...
Feb 05, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 90
On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital & Dan Tapiero of 10T. With collectively over 40 years in the hedge fund business at notable firms such as Tiger Management, before later pivoting to crypto in 2014, these two provide a unique insight into the growth of the crypto industry and just how big it could become over the next decade. Dan & Dan share their Macro outlook for 2022, the bursting of the U.S bond market, how crypto today com...
Feb 02, 2022•49 min•Season 1Ep. 89
In this episode Mark and I covered two big topics: the fallout of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and the announcement that the White House is cracking down on crypto as a matter of "national security." We kicked things off with one of my favorite charts of all time, the S&P going back to 1926 superimposed over every reason investors had to sell. Helps provide some perspective, you know? Next we covered what the market is pricing in in terms of rate hikes for 2022, and the likelihood that the Fed ...
Jan 29, 2022•57 min•Season 1Ep. 88
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen Director & Lead Economist of Heimstaden. After spending 10+ years as a Chief Global Strategist, FX Analyst & Researcher at Nordea, Andreas provides a unique insight into the current macro factors driving markets. Andreas shares his global macro outlook for 2022, his thoughts on the effect tapering will have on markets, the slowing credit impulse as a leading indicator for growth, the rise of China vs the U.S & if...
Jan 26, 2022•47 min•Season 1Ep. 87
This week in On the Margin, we have a special bonus episode for you. There's lots going on in markets and we thought if ever there were a time to speak to as many smart people as possible, it's now. In this week's episode we are joined by CoinShares Chairman Danny Masters and FTX's Jon Cheesman to give us a preview for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. We also covered the increasing connection between macro and crypto, what constraints the Fed are operating under, and how different sectors of crypt...
Jan 25, 2022•47 min•Season 1Ep. 86
In this round up, Mark and I are joined by Arca CIO Jeff Dorman to answer the one question on everyone's mind: what is driving the flash crash in crypto markets? We discussed the impact the Fed's tightening is having on markets, why the PBOC's rate cuts aren't having as much of an effect on crypto, the importance of a strong Bitcoin to crypto markets, and where we will see dispersion in crypto in 2022. Per usual, Mark and Jeff brought the fire, tune in to get their thoughts. -- Fireblocks is an ...
Jan 22, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 85
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Jordi Alexander CIO of Selini Capital & Checkmate Lead On-chain Analyst for Glassnode. Jordi & Checkmate discuss the long term structural macro trends and how they effect the crypto markets. Jordi & Checkmate also explore if Crypto can forecast broader market conditions, wether Bitcoin has become a viable macro asset, is Crypto entering a bear market, Value vs Momentum & how will the Fed respond to the highest inflation in 40 yea...
Jan 19, 2022•56 min•Season 1Ep. 84
In this week's episode, Mark and I tried something a little different. We went super deep on one topic, namely inflation. The question we asked was "Have fears around inflation peaked? And if so, what are the implications for asset prices?" We started off by taking a look at which categories were driving CPI inflation. We took a look at which of these categories were sticky and likely to persists (like owners equivalent rent and energy) or likely due to temporary, pandemic related issues (used c...
Jan 15, 2022•1 hr 6 min•Season 1Ep. 83
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guest Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence. As a former advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Danielle provides a unique insight into the Fed's policy decisions throughout 2022. Danielle shares her thoughts on the dilemma's the Fed faces going into 2022, how the Fed exacerbated wealth inequality in America, Modern Monetary Theory, Universal Basic Income, her outlook for the U.S Dollar &am...
Jan 11, 2022•41 min•Season 1Ep. 82
In this first round up of the New Year, Mark and I started with the question that's on everyone's mind: are we still in a bull market? Answer - you'll have to listen to the episode to find out! But I will say... compelling narratives and data on both sides. Whatever the truth is, we have clearly entered a pattern of market behavior that is different from past cycles. Variety, as they say, is the spice of life. We went pretty deeply into the Fed's recent minutes, including the hawkish pivot and w...
Jan 08, 2022•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 81
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital & Lawrence Lepard of Equity Management Associates. Brent & Lawrence discuss Brent's Dollar milkshake thesis and the negative effect a rising dollar could have on the global financial system looking ahead to 2022. Brent & Lawrence also share their thoughts on the long term debt cycle, the bond market during financial repression, the current slow down in economic activity & inflation, what a return...
Jan 05, 2022•42 min•Season 1Ep. 80
To bring us into the new year, Michael Ippolito & Jack Farley take viewers on an audio-visual guided tour of the most salient macro topics for 2022. They analyze a series of charts that illustrate the most important issues, such as factor rotation in equities, what banks are doing with all their money, and why the interest rate futures market (i.e. Eurodollar futures) has a different view on the future path of interest rates than the Federal Reserve’s own forecasts. -- Ledger: This episode i...
Jan 01, 2022•1 hr 14 min•Season 1Ep. 79
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Russell Clark. With a wealth of knowledge that spans over 20 years as both an Investment Analyst and CIO/CEO of Russell Clark Investment Management, Russell shares his outlook on Japan as a model for the U.S, China's rise post globalization, the connection between food & inflation, what is the end game for QE, Russell's outlook on Bitcoin and so much more. Here you can follow Russell's Substack for his latest thoughts: https://www.russell-cl...
Dec 29, 2021•58 min•Season 1Ep. 78
In this extra special weekly round up, Mark and I are joined by "Hollywood" Jack Farley, welcome Jack! We kicked things off with Trump's recent comments about crypto. Despite his wife Melania launching an NFT project on Solana, it would seem he is not a fan! Next, we moved onto Jack Dorsey's comments on Web 3. We provided context about recent pushback of NFTs from the Discord and Ubisoft communities, and asked why this pushback felt so emotional. Finally, we concluded by covering Erdogan's bid t...
Dec 25, 2021•55 min•Season 1Ep. 77
In this episode of On The Margin Mike & Jack are joined by Harley Bassman otherwise known as 'The Convexity Maven'. Harley has spent over 35 years working at some of the largest firms including Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, PIMCO and now Simplify Asset Management. With an expert understanding of options, volatility & derivatives, we invited Harley for a masterclass on how investors can hedge in this market environment. Harley shares his insights into M2 money supply growth's effect on in...
Dec 22, 2021•58 min•Season 1Ep. 76
In this week's episode, Mark and I start off with Ray Dalio's comments about Bitcoin, Gold and Ethereum. Spoiler alert - minds are being changed! Next we get into the increasing politicization of crypto, and the battle lines being drawn between the Dems and the GOP. Next we get into breadth in the Nasdaq as a potential sign of worry (thanks Bear O'Shea for the flag!), record stock buybacks amidst insider selling, and finally the growing percentage of net income explained by the stock market. We ...
Dec 18, 2021•43 min•Season 1Ep. 75
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by returning guest Avi Felman. Avi is the Co Portfolio Manager at BlockTower Capital and joins us to share his updated outlook on the market. Avi discusses the key trends in the crypto market from Bitcoin & Ethereum, value vs momentum, the layer-1 wars & more. -- Ledger: This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gateway to buy, exchange and grow your crypto. Combine a Ledger hardware wallet with the Ledger Live app to access all...
Dec 15, 2021•36 min•Season 1Ep. 74
In this week's episode, Mark returns from his two week hiatus (woo!). We quickly got into November's 6.8% CPI print, which was the highest in 39 years. We discussed the factors driving inflation, and whether or not they pointed towards transitory or permanent inflation. Next we covered the Evergrande default, and whether or not the resultant fall out is cause for concern. We moved through skyrocketing household debt, a slowing global credit impulse, and whether or not the world is headed for "Ja...
Dec 11, 2021•1 hr 2 min•Season 1Ep. 73
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Ryan Selkis Co-Founder & CEO at Messari. Having released the 150+ page 'Crypto Theses for 2022' report, we invited Ryan to the show to discuss the most important trends to look out for in the industry. Mike & Ryan discuss the Layer-1 wars, venture capital investment in crypto, NFTs 100x potential, regulation for crypto & DAOs, Ryan's market outlook for 2022 & so much more. Link to the full report - https://messari.io/crypto-these...
Dec 08, 2021•1 hr 5 min•Season 1Ep. 72
With Mark out, we have special guest filling in, Blockworks’ video journalist Jack Farley. We make sense of the recent bout of market volatility, with bond yields plummeting and tech stocks selling off hard. Mike and Jack explore market anomalies such as stay-at-home darlings like Zoom ($ZM) failing to serve as hedge against bad COVID news, and the tremendous surge in the VIX despite the fact that the S&P 500 is only a few points below its all-time-high. We also talk yield curve flattening, ...
Dec 04, 2021•57 min•Season 1Ep. 71
In this episode of On The Margin Mike is joined by Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen. Ben is a cryptocurrency market analyst providing education to his 600,000+ subscribers about the metrics that are driving the market. In this episode we discuss Plan B's Stock to Flow Model, Ben's diminishing returns thesis, crypto market cycles, institutional demand for Bitcoin, how to prepare for the next bear market and so much more. -- Ledger: This episode is brought to you by Ledger, your secure gate...
Dec 01, 2021•1 hr 14 min•Season 1Ep. 70
