US Consumer Confidence: Impressive gains and election-year implications

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® (CCI) strengthened further in January 2020. At 131.6 (1985=100), the top-line index is back within sight of all-time highs approached last summer.

With the trade conflicts and minor recession scares of 2019 largely behind us, expect the American consumer to be the unchallenged driver of economic growth through the first half of 2020—a full decade into the current expansion.  

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators, breaks down the forces behind this remarkable resilience. Then, she dives into the CCI's special relevance in presidential election years—including two distinct methods by which our data has predicted the reelection chances of incumbents. (Spoiler alert: The two approaches currently disagree on President Trump's chances.)

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