Will the change in government in London and Sir Keir Starmer's elevation to prime minister mean anything for Kyiv and Moscow? Are there lessons to be learned about how Moscow handles foreign elections, whether in terms of subversive operations or managing its own expectations? A few early thoughts, even though the honest answer is that not much is likely to change. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in ...
Jul 06, 2024•49 min•Ep. 154
A compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect: The Trump-Biden debate : what does the Kremlin really want? Nepotism : why are the princelings returning to politics? Terrorism in Dagestan : what does it portend? Covert Ops : ought the West be in the assassination business? The Spectator piece I mentioned is here . Tickets for the 9 July book event in London I mention are available at https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/russias-future-with-mark-galeotti-anna-arutunyan-hatchard...
Jun 30, 2024•1 hr 2 min•Ep. 153
Exactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russians so keen to believe Prigozhin himself is not dead? In the second half of this bumper episode, the full first chapter of the audiobook of my and Anna Arutunyan's new book Downfall. Prigozhin, Putin, and the new fight for the future of Russia (Ebury/Penguin, 2024). Out now in the UK and Europe, out in September in the US. The podcast's corporate partner ...
Jun 23, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 152
Ukraine's Ten Point Peace Plan, which received only limited endorsement at the recent Swiss Peace Summit, is essentially a demand for Russia's surrender. Putin's recent statement of conditions for negotiations is likewise a call for Kyiv to capitulate. Is this a complete impasse? Yes and no -- they are best considered as 'pre-peace positioning' in preparation for any future talks, whenever they happen, and a survey arranged by the Carnegie Endowment gives some interesting insights as to how that...
Jun 16, 2024•45 min•Ep. 151
Putin's lengthy Q&A at the St Petersburg International Forum (SPIEF), in conversation with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov, provided a useful opportunity to gauge his mood and his vision for both war and peace. From whether Russia is European (yes) to whether he needs to go nuclear in Ukraine (no), one can certainly question many of his claims and assumptions, but he sounded more confident than he has in a while. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides sof...
Jun 09, 2024•57 min•Ep. 150
An episode of various bits and pieces: what (if anything) can we read into Alexei Dyumin's appointment to be secretary of the State Council, what (if anything) is the Western thinking about escalation and deterrence over Ukraine and what (if anything) is interesting about Denis Manturov, the new First Deputy PM? The previous podcast in which I talk about Dyumin and Tula is #48, here . The article I wrote with Ekaterina Schulmann comparing the State and Security Councils is here . The podcast's c...
Jun 02, 2024•55 min•Ep. 149
What is behind the current spate of corruption-related arrests within the Russian military? Fears of a coup, an FSB takeover, punishing the generals for a badly-fought war? I'd say it is what it seems, an attempt to tackle waste in a time of war. That doesn't mean this kleptocracy is changing its spots, though: even within corrupt systems, anti-corruption campaigns can be mobilised for a range of purposes. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for inn...
May 26, 2024•45 min•Ep. 148
There has been an unexpectedly interesting and extensive reshuffle of the Russian government, but what does it mean? I suggest it is about creating an enduring militarised, mobilised state, preserving Putin's rule not least through elevating a new generation of leaders and preparing to play generations against each other. Details of the 28 May Cambridge event I mentioned (including the livestream link) are here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software ...
May 19, 2024•56 min•Ep. 147
Reading Barbara Emerson's excellent The First Cold War: Anglo-Russian Relations in the 19th Century got me thinking more about the nature of British-Russian relations, which really date back to the 16th century, why we each loom so large in the other's geopolitical imagination, and why Russia is torn between extreme Anglophilia and Anglophobia. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, count...
May 12, 2024•46 min•Ep. 146
The case of Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, long known as 'king of the kickback,' but only now arrested and charged, provides a good opportunity to consider how corruption is so central to Putin's system, not simply as a reward mechanism to pay off the loyal, but also as a control mechanism and even a social one. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affair...
May 05, 2024•54 min•Ep. 145
In the first part, I talk about some of the issues raised by a recent article in Foreign Affairs by Sam Charap and Sergei Radchenko for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia whenever they actually happen. In the second I dig into the rise and challenges of Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard. The Foreign Affairs article I mention is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, c...
Apr 21, 2024•1 hr 7 min•Ep. 144
Why are some individuals, parties, even countries still so willing to believe (or at least affect to believe) Putin's nonsense? As a way of trying to explain it, I turn to the intelligence recruitment acronym MICE: Money, Ideology, Compromise and Ego. In the second half, I look at another potential up-and-comer, Yuri Trutnev , deputy PM and presidential representative of the Far East, and wonder if he might have a non-standard political trajectory in mind. The podcast's corporate partner and spo...
Apr 14, 2024•59 min•Ep. 143
Is Putin's Russia becoming a revolutionary state? A recent article on RT by Dmitry Trenin, once one of the doyens of Russian foreign policy analysis, suggests so, but perhaps doesn't go far enough. I consider Trenin's piece in conjunction with others by Fedor Lukyanov and one Henry Johnston, to wonder whether Putin, in so many ways the arch conservative, is being forced to reinvent himself as a revolutionary under pressure of events since his invasion of Ukraine. PS: I did say it wasn't beyond t...
Apr 07, 2024•53 min•Ep. 142
After a sham election and a ghastly terrorist attack (and a pretty ghastly official response), time to talk about something else: sex, drugs and rock & roll. Well, demography, access to pharmaceuticals, and the state's culture war in music, film and beyond - but that's almost the same, isn't it? The Shaman video I mentioned is here , while if you want to see the trailer for Turist , it's here . For a more wholesome watch, the trailer for Cheburashka is here . The podcast's corporate partner ...
Mar 31, 2024•56 min•Ep. 141
What a week it has been. I give my initial thoughts on the awful terrorist attack on the outskirts of Moscow, and then pivot to some further lessons of the sham presidential elections. It's all joy, all the time, here at In Moscow's Shadows ... There are further details of Vienna event at the Kreisky Forum on 8 April here , and on the Newcastle University public lecture on 16 May here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersiv...
Mar 24, 2024•53 min•Ep. 140
Russia's presidential elections are coming to a close, and while Putin's landslide victory is a foregone conclusion in light of the manipulation of the process (I write about that here ), that doesn't mean these elections don't matter. I discuss the things I'll be looking for, ranging from how the votes are allocated, through the potential for a cabinet reshuffle, to how this fits into wider political processes, from the cultivation of a new loyalist elite to the risk of a further mobilisation o...
Mar 17, 2024•55 min•Ep. 139
Are we failing properly to consider the danger as the Kremlin turns to Russian-based organised crime groups abroad to make up for the expulsion of so many of its spies abroad and the constraints of the sanctions regime? I think so -- and here I explain why. The ECFR Crimintern report I mention is here , and Rebellion as Racket , for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovati...
Mar 09, 2024•54 min•Ep. 138
An episode, I admit, on the nerdier end of the spectrum, as I dig into Putin's latest State of the Union, both for the detail and also for three big take-aways: that this was a stealth stump speech, that it left unanswered how (or if) the ambitious 6-year plan would be funded, and that it marks a new stage in Putin's Sovietisation. My earlier video on the speech is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exerci...
Mar 02, 2024•50 min•Ep. 137
Avenging may not be quite the right word, but what can the West do to punish the Kremlin for Navalny's death and furthering his cause in ways worthy of him? I set out some practical proposals. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows , and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons ...
Feb 25, 2024•42 min•Ep. 136
Well, not really, but how Navalny's awful death helps illustrate how late Putinism in its 'banana republic' phase comes to resemble the later Soviet era -- and what this may mean for its future. My video on Navalny is here and Sunday Times article is here . The Moskovsky Komsomolets article I cite is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and simila...
Feb 18, 2024•1 hr 1 min•Ep. 135
Is the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad a dangerous Russian bastion threatening the West, a point of vulnerability for Moscow, or a potential point of reconnection with Europe? How about a mix of all three -- and also an example of how even figures from a new 'Putin generation' politician can be technocrats rather than zealots. In the second half, a brief rumination about how simulation exercises like Conducttr's recent Kaliningrad Crucible can help if not prediction, at least analysis. The Tucker...
Feb 11, 2024•55 min•Ep. 134
As I'm travelling this weekend, this episode is a compilation of two sets of comparative book reviews already provided to my Patrons. First up, three recent books on Russia that, together, would make up one pretty fine, balanced and comprehensive one... Thomas Graham, Getting Russia Right (Polity) Richard Sakwa, The Lost Peace (Yale) Leon Aron, Riding the Tiger (AEI) In the second half, three more books, this time all about Ukraine: Maria Popova & Oxana Shevel, Russia and Ukraine. Entangled ...
Feb 04, 2024•50 min•Ep. 133
Barring particularly high-profile developments, we tend to look at Russia through the prism of Moscow (and maybe St Petersburg). How good a picture does this give us? To try and redress the balance, I use a recent Association D'Est report on 'Grassroots Propaganda and Repression in Russia's Komi Republic' to consider some of the wider lessons about protest and resistance in the provinces... The D'Est webage is here , and you can learn more about the Bear Market brief here (substack) and here (po...
Jan 28, 2024•49 min•Ep. 132
A podcast of two halves. First of all, I look at the dilemmas and limitations facing European (EU and UK) strategy over Ukraine. Why is it so hard? After the break, I consider another of the younger officials sometimes listed as an up-and-comer: Moscow region governor Andrei Vorobyov. Why do I not really rate him? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and...
Jan 21, 2024•1 hr 9 min•Ep. 131
The essence of podcasting and punditry may be to peddle confident certainties, but often we don’t really know. So today I raise some important questions to which I really don’t know the answer, but which, alas, matter. When will Russians' patience run out? What will the next 'black swan' disruptor be? Would a ceasefire in 2024 benefit Ukraine more than Russia? The Foreign Affairs article by Emma Ashford and Kelly A. Grieco I cite is here . The KCL event I mention is here , the programme of the D...
Jan 14, 2024•46 min•Ep. 130
Russia is still gripped by an egg crisis, after prices rose 46% last year. Now the security apparatus is investigating hoarding and profiteering, the Agriculture Ministry is talking price controls and Lukashenko is having some fun at Putin's expense. At the risk of sounding glib, in this podcast I explain why the crisis explains everything you need to know about Putin's Russia... The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisi...
Jan 07, 2024•40 min•Ep. 129
Less whimsical than the last one, the final episode of 2023 looks ahead to the coming year: the candidates for the presidential elections, the prospects for the war, and - spinning off a deeply-bizarre interview with hawkish academic Sergei Karaganov - whether the Kremlin can find a convincing narrative. The Karaganov interview is here . The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr , which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terr...
Dec 29, 2023•55 min•Ep. 128
Was Moscow nuked in 1812? Have a thousand years of history been made up to conceal the power of the 'Russian Horde'? Was Lenin a mushroom? Are reptiloids trying to subvert Russia with Satanism? Of course not: but these -- and many, many more -- conspiracy theories and mobilised falsehoods remain deeply and depressingly prevalent in Russia, and even in a way shape policy. Why? Join me in a meandering exploration of the wild and wacky world of Russian conspiracy theory/ The podcast's corporate par...
Dec 23, 2023•56 min•Ep. 127
I felt I ought to cover Putin's combined press conference and online town hall, but it was just so, so boring. And maybe that's the point: tedium weaponised as the new electoral strategy. But what else can we read into the Kremlin's public messaging? To explore that, after some brief thoughts on that 4 hour 4 minute banquet of banality, I delve into the world of Russian tabloids this weekend... Details of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime event on Monday that I mention ...
Dec 17, 2023•46 min•Ep. 126
So, surprise, surprise, Putin's standing for re-election. A few thoughts on how it was announced and the vibe around it, before I look at 'Preventing the Next War,' a report from DGAP, the German Council on Foreign Relations, that believes Russia could rearm within 6 years of the end of the war, and that if NATO has not already armed itself to match by then, it would invade. I'm not convinced -- but think it is crucial to have the debate. The DGAP report is here . The podcast's corporate partner...
Dec 10, 2023•50 min•Ep. 125
