Friday Flight - Student Loan Shakeup, Doom Spending, and the Mounting Mini-Stagcession #954 - podcast episode cover

Friday Flight - Student Loan Shakeup, Doom Spending, and the Mounting Mini-Stagcession #954

Mar 07, 202537 minEp. 954
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Episode description

Time for a Friday Flight- our little sampling of the week’s financial news and what it means for your personal finances. There are a lot of headlines out there, but we boil them down to specific takeaways that will allow you to kick off the weekend informed and help you to get ahead with your money. In this episode we explain some relevant and helpful stories like: more cultural events means less depression, student loan shakeup, credit score drops for borrowers, best new cars, totaled cars leading to paying out of pocket, e-bike rebates, doom spending, mounting mini-stagcession, affordability czar, and the national crypto reserve.

 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome to Head of Money. I'm Joel, I'm Matt, and today we're talking about student loan shakeups, doom spending, and the mounting mini stack session.

Speaker 2

That's right. This is our Friday flight where we take a look at the headlines from the past week and specifically look at how they are going to impact your personal finances. And so when you say a mini stack session, you need to say mini stack session because that's uh when we get on my helium balloon first. That's how the the economists that coined that is attempting to predict

the future. We're not going to make the predictions, but there are different folks who are looking off into the future.

Speaker 1

They're trying to sometimes based on present stuff, right, which it's helpful to like he's trying to read the tea leaves though, and say this is what's coming down the pike. And I think it's helpful for us to at least understand kind of what they're pointing to those elements, but also not hold up with the grainess.

Speaker 2

I think, more than anything, just to alleviate fears, right, not to say to be convinced of that this is why the thing is happening, but just as folks are freaking out to understand I guess some of the different positions that folks are approaching the argument with.

Speaker 1

When that is helpful when you see more headlines they use a scary word like, we want to talk about it and shed some light. And because there's a lot of deep in glue out there, can we start off by talking about something that I've been prioritizing in my budget over the past I don't know, a year and a half, I'll say, and.

Speaker 2

That is to enjoy more more cultural events. And I have literally called.

Speaker 1

Them cultural events. This is the thing that I've been shooting for. Is that the line item on your non budget? Yeah, yes, that you don't have. He just any time Emily questions you about something, You're like, baby, that's that's part of my cultural events spending.

Speaker 2

Is exactly right, That's exactly right. That's botta. That was my cultural event. Sounds like the expenses they are spending coming out of like a Parks and reg department. Yeah, so, okay, you joke.

Speaker 1

But I have been attempting to pull off and I made it initially a once a quarter goal and then I said, you know what, No, I want to I want to try to do this once a month, the cultural event, and so that could you start that this year? I started that last year. Okay, so you put what it could be a concert. All the concert ticket prices have gone up substantially. It could be going into the debt for that. Yeah, that Actually, it could be going

to see a play. It could be like I took my daughter to see a Shakespeare play at the Shakespeare Tavern recently and it was awesome, to being the best time. And they're just I think cultural events are are underrated and and there was actually, as I told my wife about kind of why we're I want to prioritize this more and more, she said, actually, I just read something the other day. You should check this out, and there was here's the headline. Psychiatrist discovered doing this just once

a month cut your risk of depression in half? Was it?

Speaker 2

Cultural events? Cultural events? Taking a cultural event? So not enough to defend your own case. She's done it for you.

Speaker 1

That's right, So thank you Emily for contributing to the show here. But what they said was if you do one outing, one cultural events outing every few months, like I was doing once a quarter initially, it reduces your risk of depression by thirty two percent. If you instead prioritize a cultural event on a monthly basis. That could be by the way, a museum, ounting, going to the botanical gardens. There are so many ways that you can use that culture plan. It doesn't even have to be expensive.

It will, though, cause your risk of depression to fall by nearly half, by forty eight percent. So do they also call them cultural events? They literally call them cultural events. Body in there because that's what I'd been labeling them. I didn't know what else to call them. That's pretty hilarious, and so I think maybe this can hopefully incentivize people to think about I think it could also think about the wanderlust that people feel Matt.

Speaker 2

They they're like, I got to go to Europe. I got to get out of here.

Speaker 1

There's something about instituting more regular cultural events into your life and into your budget that maybe feels like you don't have to take the big swing on the expensive A.

Speaker 2

Can splurges more often. I totally love that, and I love that you specifically have identified this for you. But I will say I think it was like, it is important to be a stay depressed well No, I'm just saying, like, the argument I'm going to make is that it's not like I do think folks would probably push themselves to do something like that. But you know, for you, it moves the needle significantly. Yeah, I think for some folks they're gonna be like meh, I don't I don't really

want to. For some folks, it's like, well, I'd rather go on a cruise. I just like sitting there, going to island, hoppin that kind of thing. I think there might be some folks who are just like, well, when I have some time and money, I just like to go shopping, like that's how I unwind. And I don't think we would consider either of those cultural cultural events. No,

I wouldn't, And so they're in a different category for sure. Yeah, it's just to identify that for some folks spending I think, can look a little bit different and it may not move the needle as much for them. But whatever that is, for you figure out what that thing is.

Speaker 1

But I thought it was interesting to see this data because I do think the average person it is going to move the needle, and maybe you don't think about it like that. I think too, about the before, like looking up forward to the cultural event that's upcoming, I get to think about it for months, typically because I bought.

Speaker 2

A ticket or have something to do looking forward to.

Speaker 1

Yeah, it'saw on the calendar, and then I get to look back at that event and say, oh, man, think.

Speaker 2

About how great that. Do you remember when we did that?

Speaker 1

It was so good? Kind of like a vacation. I mean, that's one of the things that our friends Scott Kayes talks about with vacations is like half the fun is planning and getting ready for it, not just the taking of the vacation.

Speaker 2

I do wonder if they accounted for the social sort of spillover or crossover, like in the ven diagram between cultural events and the relationships and community, how much overlap is there, because, like I said, so, I do think for some people they're kind of like, eh, I don't know, like that it sounds like it would be fun, but

maybe for me less. So I do think, And there has been tons and there continues to be research that points to the fact that that we have fewer relationships than ever yeah, and that when we do prioritize those that we tend to live happier, longer. Lives that increases life satisfaction. And that's regardless if you are an introvert

or an extrovert. I think that there is a degree of us needing to push ourselves a little bit more than what we think we need when it comes to social interactions, but that's not the path that we find ourselves on. Right. I can think about the what is the Harvard Longitudal Happiness Study, and the number one thing that leads to the highest amounts of happiness and self satisfaction and fulfilling life are those relationships and and often a lot of cases, I think what you're finding in

these different cultural events they include other people. So is it the ticket? Is it ensure there's a certain amount of enjoyment. I think it's a personal development that you're getting out of that. But there's a whole lot of friendship and community and being around other people that in my mind, directly overlays the this. You know, those two circles, yeah, might be highly overlapping worth something worth considering as well.

We've got a little So what I'm saying is that a cultural outing or of it could be even be buying some cured meats at Aldi and having a picnic in the park with some friends, right.

Speaker 1

Like, but I love to overthink it and don't think that you got to go see Beyonce when she comes to town and spend nine hundred dollars on that ticket.

Speaker 2

That's insane.

Speaker 1

To enjoy a cultural event with your friends like you don't have to. There's affordable ways of doing it, and sometimes it might be a semi expensive concert ticket, but other times it can be a whole lot cheaper totally or potentially free.

Speaker 2

Especially I was just thinking about this too, and especially if you're not dropping big maney of those expensivefications.

Speaker 1

I was thinking in the library has offers the ability to go to get some of those cultural events for free, potentially, like going to the zoo or the aquarium, more the botanical gardens. You might be able to pull off that cultural event for zero dallas and enjoy even going to the library like kids after school.

Speaker 2

Sometimes they're just like meeting up there hanging out and again there's that social element.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I love it all right, cultural events for the win. Let's talk about student loans. Matt that the trend of student loan forgiveness and of income based or payment programs has been to make them more and more generous. Right as student loan debt it's become a more significant issue for mars. We've just seen that up into the right trend for student loan debt and one point seven trillion dollars overall, I think in student loan debt these days.

And so these ballooning debt burdens, they've basically been the norm as college prices increased so much faster than the rate of inflation in recent decades. Oh yeah, and while student loan borrowers they still made more money than their peers who didn't get a degree. We've talked about that too before, what a million dollars in lifetime earnings on

average for the versus the typical high school graduate. Well, various government administrations have opted to make those loans less onerous through different repayment programs like pay and Repay and then most recently the safe Plan that was attempted a couple of years ago. But the current administration is taking a different route. They seem to be of the opinion that student loan benevolence has kind of gone too far. And then so after a January court ruling again save

and then another recent one in March. The Education Department, they actually just recently took applications for student loan forgiveness and for repayment plans off the website as these court rulings have essentially put those biden to minus illustration plans that were more generous on hold, which puts a lot

of borrowers in limbo. Matt, there's essentially now zero ability to switch or to sign up for a new or different repayment plan, or to even verify your income if your date is approaching because of this freeze, and it's just kind of leaving student loan borrowers in alert right now. Yeah yeah, So how long will that freeze last? We don't know.

Speaker 2

But the sad thing is that student loan borrowers continue to be kept on pins and needles. So first, initially it was waiting and hoping for student loan forgiveness, and now I was just waiting to see what sort of payment plan that you're going to be able to get on how long your path too potential forgiveness might take. The lack of clarity, which I totally get, is so frustrating and so at least one piece of advice that we can offer in these uncertain times is to keep

making payments no matter what plan that you're on. The Journal actually profiled steep credit drops for borrowers who didn't resume making payments back in October, and so what they found was that ninety days after that resumed, scores began to plummet. Yeah, so clearly there is just a large amount of confusion. This is a quote from the Journal. Forty three percent of borrowers who owe payments on federal student loans haven't resumed making them. That's witch chazy, it's crazy,

and it's like, I wonder if too. I think it's less confusion and maybe just that they are ill informed because when that was something that you've been promised over the past four years. I get the confusion, I get the misunderstanding, but I get there's.

Speaker 1

Also even out of sight, out of mind, right, Yeah, exactly, Hey, don't pay your student loans. Don't pay your student loans. Don't pay your student loans. Wait a second, pay your student loans. And you're like, I I didn't get the last moment.

Speaker 2

Yeah, So, like we're talking about one hundred plus point drop for some borrowers, which impacts every area of your financial life, so we're highlighting this. We do know the student loans space is a complete mess. If you're not sure where you stand, make log in, check your plan,

check your payment status over on studentaid dot gov. Either take screenshots of your payment history or download some of those transactions to be able to keep up with the payments you've already made the plan that you're currently on to be able to document this. It's it shouldn't be this way, but it feels like it's sort of the

wild West. We're not totally sure where this. It's like a Safari expedition where there's like no road and it's just like, well, are we going to go over there like where it looks super sketchy and rough, or we maybe we'll go like this direction. We're not totally sure which direction the government is going to choose to go. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Well, and I think if you are in the Save plan and you're banking on those payments, being like right now you're in for parents if you're on the Safe plan, but if you're banking on the having those Save Plan payments once the hoping that it comes back online, I would not plan on that, and I would plan on making a payment that's probably double whatever the safe plan payment was likely to be, which obviously is like a crazy thing to hear, but I think it's the only

rational way to approach this and then plan for the worst but hope for the best, and for parents of upcoming students who are going to college soon, keeping student loan debt to a minimum. I think it's just more

important than ever, Matt. I mean, it's always been something that we have stressed, but given the uncertainty in the student loan space and the fact that we're probably gonna have less generous repayment plans on offer, like I would just want to take on less debt in general because of that.

Speaker 2

That's right, Okay. Consumer Reports they just put out their list of the best new cars for twenty twenty five. Toyota and Subaru we're both well represented. This continues my streak of wanting to own a Toyota, specifically, Angel I've been on this Toyota kick for a while. They're pretty great. They're so evidently they're like super you know, it's supposed

to be super reliable. I might until the U want to I want to see in a hybrid is what I I want a minivan that's a hybrid where I'm getting better gas milge than what I'm getting right now because for those solid or drive solid state evs that Toyota's gonna put out. So when is that gonna be like twenty twenty eight, I think it's going to continue to get kicked down the redue things. Well, I mean, look at the current administration.

Speaker 1

You know they're cutting some of that, But that doesn't mean that Toyota technology is going to be.

Speaker 2

Yeah, there's there's fewer incentives.

Speaker 1

Toyta basically said we're gonna bet on hybrids now, yeah, and we're going to push towards better EV technology. And when that comes down the pike, it's gonna be a game changer for eb's.

Speaker 2

I do whenever it does actually get implemented and start where they start selling it to the masses. Yes, I totally agree. Back to Consumer Reports though, the cheapest new car that they highlighted is the Nissan CenTra, which it can be had for not much more than twenty thousand dollars, which is car. When I first met her, it was the centrals look better than they used to back in the day, Like I see centrals now, I'm just like,

that's a sharp looking car. Man, reliability, fuel economy. They were two of the top metrics that Consumer Reports was keeping in mind. But still we would prefer to hear folks in the direction of buying used cars, not in these new Select twenty twenty five cars. I'll say, I think the exception is if you're worried about perhaps maybe buying a lemon, and you're willing to keep that new car for at least ten years if you can. I don't know, Man, even part of that makes me a a little hesitant.

Speaker 1

It's not gonna be the best financial move, but it's such a reasonable one, and there's just.

Speaker 2

Such a financial hit that you're taking with that those first three years, especially of depreciation, that really like you need to be in such a solid position financially in order before you're buying a new car, even a new Nissan CenTra. But if you are keen on buying something brand new, opting for one of Consumer reports favorites, I think that would be totally wise. Yeah, while we're talking about cars, icy cars, which is like a data aggregate.

I know, they really surveys and lots of data that we like to look at icy cars also released a new study of the most reliable used cars, and at the top of the list Honda Fit Baby. It's got the best five and ten year track record.

Speaker 1

I think the ten year old car was like, what eleven thousand dollars for a ten year old home to fit?

Speaker 2

What's super affordable? And we published we released this this past week in our newsletter. But the average used vehicle now is fourteen years old. That's that's on the road. And when I came across that, dude completely blew my mind, specifically because I always saw myself as like someone who's an average car, yes in this case older than average. And I'm like, wait a minute, I got a twenty twelve.

That means my van is only thirteen years old. There's a bunch of folks out there who were beating me. It makes me want to keep that car on the road even longer because I'm just like, wait a minute, I'm barely average. You got to do better by it. I know.

Speaker 1

This is make you want to sell that and you go get like a two thousand and six or something, not at all, but it does make me want to take care of that thing.

Speaker 2

Wait, I never posted pictures, remember I talked about making the side mirrors like I was seeing them down especially. I totally did that, and like these small little things to maintain your vehicle, it makes you feel better about it, sort of like when you're talking about cleaning up, cleaning up your blackstone, getting all the grease off. You're like, wait a minute, this is a solid grill. That's how I feel about our ride now, So I'm going to

keep it on the road. Maintenance goes a long way for much much longer, many more years of life on nothing.

Speaker 1

Sticking with the car stuff. If you get in a wreck, which I hope nobody out there listening does, especially if you're driving right now, pay attention right Uh, there's a higher likelihood actually that your car is going to be totaled these days. If you do end up in an accident, instead of getting that car repaired, it's likely to be scrapped. And that's at least partially because cars come with more

expensive parts these days and smarter computer elements. I think it's also just matt the rising car of labor in that sector.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah.

Speaker 1

Electric vehicles are also part of the reason why why this is the case as well, because battery damage can cause repair prices to soar significantly that EV gets in an accident and the battery elements get damaged and boomshock a lock. You're talking about replacing the whole arm battery that ain't cheap?

Speaker 2

Is the when the solid state rolls around? Is that gonna Is that gonna impact the ability to replace certain elements? That's a good question.

Speaker 1

If you could just replace certain like the damaged portion of the ye some of the cells that are damaged, instead of replacing the whole pack that in mind, that would I'd be smart.

Speaker 2

That'd be a games if you could just like pop out a few bricks like a bunch of legos.

Speaker 1

Yep, that sounds cool. That'd be brilliant. But this also means, you know, repair times are increasing. I think the average repair weight is like close to a month now, which is crazy.

Speaker 2

What does this all mean? Man? I believe that one of my neighbors he's been driving a rental vehicle. I don't think his car gott in a wreck, but maybe it had a recall so it's back of the I'm assuming it's back out of the dealership because it's like a new pickup truck and he's been driving this other pickup truck. And it's been a few weeks now, So I did not even think.

Speaker 1

About what I think about your turn law when he had an issue with his car, and man, it was in there for months, yeah, like multiple.

Speaker 2

Months, and they had an actual limon. Yeah, they ended up having to actually make a claim with the dealership and have that thing they bought it back.

Speaker 1

Basically, don't sleep on lemon laws in your state if you need it. But this is I think, just another data point that points that we're going to see higher car insurance prices that will likely outpace general inflation moving forward. You also might not get enough money right that equals the value of.

Speaker 2

The total vehicle. So they say, hey, the vehicle's totaled, here's what we think it's worth. Here's what we pay.

Speaker 1

We we're paying, And you might need to fight back and say, no, actually it's worth this much here My sois Yeah, you might need to appeal what they say and also save up because you might need to use other dollars that you have to subsidize, right, the price of that next car if you're let's say upgrading it, getting a few years neweror that's what we did the last time matt our car our two thousand and six Odyssey was in an accident and it got totaled. We

upgraded to a twenty thirteen Odyssey. We weren't playing on upgrading, but it just made sense, I think at that point in time. But yeah, you just have to be prepared from a financial perspective and from an insurance perspective.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and to know that it probably is going to be smart to not buy at the top end of your car budget because there are some of these other expenses that maybe you aren't necessarily counting on. While we're talking about transportation, there's a relatively new e bike rebate program that's attempting to reduce the price of e bikes for folks who don't make a whole lot of money in the fair city of Atlanta, and it turns out

that is working out quite well. New stats find that folks who got an e bike through the program are driving their cars less. Seventy four percent of the recipients they ride their new e bike at least two days a week, and those folks are driving forty percent less to either work or to school after their e bike purchase, which is awesome. This love it. Of course, it reduces

congestion on the road. I think it also does a good amount of stress reduction, and of course it increases the amount of activity, the amount of exercise for those bikers. Even with the e assist, you still are moving your legs a little bit way more than just pressing the pedal when you know when the light trens green.

Speaker 1

Being on an e bike is better than being in a car. Absolutely, And for the city, I think it's money well spent too. You know, it's just just cheaper than adding more infrastructure for the cars.

Speaker 2

It's much it's going to be a lot more affordable over the long haul to maintain bike lanes, paths or even roads that bikes are riding on. Of course, then you know three thousand pound vehicle, what, yeah, there is that? How much cars away? I don't even know. I made nothing like that.

Speaker 1

Thousand three to four thousand hounds maybe, But yeah, I think that the more bike infrastructure we have, it's almost like if you build it, they will come, and if you pay people to get them, people will actually like jump on it and it can I think, revolutionize the way people get around town. And then once there's like a critical mass of bikers. That's a good thing for the city right as a whole. It's a good thing for pollution, and it's a good thing for infrastructure. You're right,

I think it can reduce the government's costs overall. Plus it's fine kind of leaning in d bikes and it's fun. It's fun, and you see your neighbors more, you talk to them more when you walk and ride your bike versus driving your car.

Speaker 2

It did a whole episode on this way back in the day, back when we're much younger.

Speaker 1

Dads, let's rehab you the whole thing right now. Well, other towns like Denver right have offered bike rebase for citizens too, But I think most town of money listeners they don't have access to a subsidized e bike. But still, I think it's it's worth noting that e bikes have come down in price significantly. Cargo e bikes. You and I what, You have a cargo regular bike. I have a cargo e bike. Those are great if you have kids or if you're hauling stuff. But I think looking

to brands, they're not like the top tier brands. The top tier brands are going to cost a lot of money. Still, but like rad power bikes and electric those are solid. You can get solid bikes from them for less than a grand. Or if you're wanting to buy used, scour Facebook marketplace you can find a pretty solid e bike that someone else said. Yeah, I didn't really ride that very much, and you might be able to get it

half off from what the MSRP was. So right, this is a case I think we're spending a little bit of money. If you actually use the bike, it's going to save you more money over time.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and you mentioned that I've got that regular muscle powered e bike or not eba. This it's an oxymorony, not necessarily, but just a traditional non electric cargo bike. And have we talked about this on the show Don't Plenty to sell mine? You kind of listened to the mundo. Well, I listed it in the middle of the winter, and nobody wants to ride a bike when it's like freezing outside. Now it's a great time. But I'm gonna, yeah, renew it.

Drop the price, you know, like one hundred bucks. But I'm so sad, dude, it's like the end of an era. Like we have so many it feels like a part of the family. That we're giving away or selling or something like that. But like, we have so many memories, especially early to give it away with a kid on the ball. Back in the day when our oldest girls started pre k that's how we got them to pre kah. Like,

it wasn't carpool, it was bike pool. You would swing by in the morning, you had your oldest already there on a bike. EV would get on there, you would ride off, drop them off, and then I would pick them up in the like I had more flexibility. That's when I was, like, I'm still self employed, but back then I had the ability to go in the middle of the day and pick them up at like one or two whatever. But like, man, it was afternoon bikeros. Oh my gosh, dude, I have such fun memories. It's

gonna be sad to see that thing go. Yeah, but we're just in a stage of life where we're not using them nearly as much as we used to. Kids getting older and they're riding their own bikes, don't need the cargo bike anymore. We can get it. Still have a whole arsenal stable of traditional bikes. But man, for those years when your kids are real young and they get hop on the back. It's so sticking for so money.

Speaker 1

Yeah, all right, we've got more to get to, Matt, including we'll talk about doom spending and a national cryptocurrency reserve.

Speaker 2

Is that a good idea and how will that impact your finances. We'll get to that and more right after this. We are back from the break, and of course it is now time for the ludicrous headline of the week, which is from CNBC. The headline reads, one in five Americans are doom spending and here's how that can backfire. Joel. There is a new report and they find that twenty percent of folks out there are partaking in what's now

being called doom spending, which is just another term. You know how these news organizations come up with the different terms. We feel like they're being coined right and left. It is essentially buying more stuff because of fears about the future. You are expecting the worse, and some folks out there are citing incoming tariffs as a reason to buy stuff now that the otherwise would have avoided or at least

we died longer to purchase. And you know, you listen to how to Money before you've heard our take on this. You know, we don't love this mindset to buy something before you otherwise would. It's like we're always either in a period of economic uncertainty or we're just around the corner for something from something terrible happening. Joel, don't let

other shoes about to drive. Yeah, don't let this instill fear, and you don't let it change your money, actions, your habits, especially if that reaction would be to increase your spending.

Speaker 1

Yeah, don't freak out, folks. Maybe doom saving. Doom saving is a better way of going. And that's what the emergency fund is all about. It's like, if you're nervous about the future, which it should, it should lead you to stockpile more cash.

Speaker 2

But like, but even still, that's it doesn't It shouldn't be in reaction to something that's going on, Like you should all that regardless of what's going on in rosy times or when things aren't looking so good, you should have that emergency fund because then, so I'm pushing back because if someone starts freaking out and they start thinking, well, I can't invest money if only bad times or ahead, they're not gonna they're not gonna be willing to dollar

cost average, and they're gonna pull back a little bit, they're gonna sit on cash, potentially miss out on obviously what that would have done had that been invested in experience dot compounding.

Speaker 1

Yeah, yeah, I agree, And I think some people out for doom spending when their debt is feeling out of control, like with the logic of why not because I'm like digging myself into a bigger holes.

Speaker 2

Like throwing the talent Essentially, I think that's.

Speaker 1

Exactly what happens here, right, And but the truth is those additional purchases will catch up to you and it makes the eventual payoff process even more painful. And by the way, if you're in that position, you're like, man, my debt is overwhelming. There are nonprofits that can help you, like Money Management International. It's worth talking to a budget counselor there. We've also met, we've talked about how tariffs are likely to impact prices, and so I think that's

part of why people are doom spending. They're seeing kind of tariff implementation economic uncertainty, and they're saying, man, I need to frontloads and purchases because prices are about to go up. That's what I'm reading about. And you know, Trump called the terror against Mexico and Canada off last month, but they wouldn't to affect this Tuesday, and then got pulled back in part they're.

Speaker 2

Making organizations as well, especially the US Mexico Canada agreements.

Speaker 1

And then products, some agricultural products right are gonna also be taken off the chopping block.

Speaker 2

Oh man, it's so confusing, and you're like, dang it. I bought a bunch of stuff on Tuesday.

Speaker 1

I stockpiled avocados because I thought the prices were gonna go up, right, And the truth is, prices are going to rise on a lot of goods if tariffs stay around for long. But will they stay around, We don't know. We don't know what's gonna happen with big question. So much sea sawing happening. And I think, no matter what, it still doesn't mean that you should front load spending, especially especially if it means taking on more debt. I think that increases anxiety and that leads to a doom

spending doom loop. And that's that's what I foresee for a lot of people. If if you partake in doom spending, it's it's likely to unravel things instead of help.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we'll definitely be keeping up with the tariff conversation how it impacts our money, because they could end up sparking stagflation, which is a combination of weak economic growth and inflation. And here we go, so one economists use the adorable term mini stag session. It's so much more palatable many stag session. We're not fans of making predictions, man, we try not to do it. We're not changing our investing strategy, We're not changing how what it is that

we're buying. But even if stagflation doesn't materialize, uncertainty it's one of the worst words, I think for business owners and operators, and I think that's a big part of why. I mean, that's why we're seeing fluctuations like crazy in the market right now, intra day fluctuations that are they've

been insane. Yeah, they've been insane, and hopefully you aren't glued to the headlines and adjusting not only how it is that you're spending on a day to day basis, but we certainly don't want to see you change how it is that you're investing your dollars because honestly, in the I mean personally, I think everything is going to be fine, not because anyone is brilliant or anything. I

don't know, Like we've kind of had this conversation. But and this is where I don't know, maybe folks are going to say I'm more of a conspiracy theorist, Joel, But I've shared this with you. Who was sitting there on the podium with Trump when he got inaugurated like two months ago? Oh, the tech, all the guards, you saw Tim Cook or Tim Apple? Right, of course Elon was there, but like Bezos, who else was there? Sundar

from Google Zuckerberg he was there as well. Right, these are the biggest companies in the US, are you telling me? And so because that they were there, there's no way that that was their first conversation that they've had with Trump or with the current administration, with the White House. I think, man, that there has got to be back channels open where they're having conversations with these big companies and saying, hey, all right, we gotta play tough, we

gotta play hardball. We're we're gonna threaten these terrorists. Don't freak out. Everyone else is gonna be freaking out. Just keep on doing what you've always done. Obviously, this is a more generous interpretation of what's being going on.

Speaker 1

I don't even know if that's generous though, because then there's all these other small businesses. It's like, why are you linking up with lots of the richest America, the richest dudes who run the biggest companies, when all the other small businesses that uncertainly impacts them a lot more than it impacts the big companies, who often have ways of side stepping tariffs shining.

Speaker 2

You know, I'm having that. I think it's perceived uncertainty as opposed to actual uncertainty. That's I mean. And this is why we you know, big companies why they have earnings reports right, and small businesses pay attention to that. It sets the tone for what's going on in the economy.

That's a generous optimistic interpretation. If Trump actually things that terifts are going to be good for our country, then I think he's an idiot because all economists appointed to the fact this is not going to make our countries well here.

Speaker 1

That's one of those things where if you ask any economists, no matter where they follow in the political spectrum, they're pretty much going to agree on that. Yeah, there are some outliers, of course, but it's the same thing when we talk about rent control. Almost all economists right and left agree the rent control is a terrible idea, and I think the same is true with how economists think about tariffs, and so totally agree.

Speaker 2

It's interesting that.

Speaker 1

We're still testing the tariff watters here, and I think that lack of clarity about when tariffs are going to be implemented, at what rate they're going to be implemented, and then how are friendly countries that we were friendly with and countries that were not as friendly with, how they're going to respond, and then how long we'll stick around that those are all clouding what's going to happen with the American economy, and I think it just leads

to negative outcomes for consumers and for businesses alike.

Speaker 2

Yeah, so let's keep your money and government train rolling for a bit more hair jol. There's a new position that is being created.

Speaker 1

The affordabilities are I've already sent in my application there it's coming saying do you think I'll get the job, Matt, only if you promise to appoint me on the board.

Speaker 2

Because they are putting together a board. But we'll see how this shakes. My minis are it's nice right next to me. It's an interesting move given the twelve hundred dollars in average on anual spending impact that terrists are predicted to have on us households. But this Affordability Zar will likely be tasked with trying to reduce prices on everything from homes to cars, groceries, electronics as well. I'll

do my best, Folks, I am highly skeptical. You don't think I can do it of this, not of you, but just of this government intervention. It seems insane. I do think, like, yeah, maybe there could be some wiggle room right in the healthcare space to encourage or to mandate some pricing transparency which could help consumers shop in a more informed way. We just were talking about the high cost of college. The only thing that is outpaced college when it comes to outpacing that the average rate

of inflation is medical spending. So I think that could be good. But either way, keep listening to how to money and be your own affordabilities are folks. No one is going to look after your hard earned dollars like you. This seems completely unnecessary to It's a creation of another, perhaps government organization to counter what another part of the government is doing. Seems highly inefficient. I disapprove.

Speaker 1

Yeah well, and yeah that in intervention into markets to try and stemy cost increases, both sides of the aisle have kind of gone. We talked about that with attempts to rate in what we're being called gre inflation, and how we didn't think that was a good idea. And similarly, you're trying to go in there and and force companies to to cost cut prices. I think no matter from which side of the political fence you're sitting on, it's

not gonna work out well. And as like interference, to me, yeah, the market is going to do better at regulating that, and we just have to pay attention and save the best we can.

Speaker 2

We talked about that a lot on the show. Here, don't we hashtag free the market? Like that? People still using hashtags these days. Yeah, they're gonna use that one. Okay. Well.

Speaker 1

President Trump also seems to be keen on starting a national cryptocurrency reserve. Hooray for taxpayers. I say that tongue in cheek because it's another policy we're just not keen on. He's not talking about the United States owning just bitcoin, but adding in some smaller and some lesser known cryptocurrencies too,

fortunately not his own meme coin. Although details on what this National crypto Reserve is going to look like, those details are thin, and I think the goal is at least important to try and do what Norway has done. They have a sovereign wealth fund that allows the country to prosper as markets perform.

Speaker 2

Well.

Speaker 1

Norway has crushed it when it comes to investing. They're almost as good as Nancy Pelosi, Matt. But Norway doesn't have the debt problems that we have, and so we have significant debt. So instead of paying down debt, we would be investing that money instead to pay down debt after we've seen our national cryptocurrency wallet. So I guess that's the plan. Yeah, that's the way. It's at least

been positive. But as front of the show Noah Smith, who we had on recently said, he said, this is going to require either raising taxes on American people or making the US government go deeper into debt at a time when interest payments are already spiraling out of control. I just I just don't see a reason for US as taxpayers to be on the hook for a government run crypto endeavor.

Speaker 2

I think it's an okay idea. I don't like totally love it, but I also don't totally hate it because if you think it, like there's just so much ridiculous stuff that we are spending money on it, Like, would it be the worst thing for the US to have its own crypto wallet, I don't know, like I think about it. Like AI, we don't totally know what the implications of AI is going to be, and the government is doing the best it can to encourage the private

development of AI, specifically to compete with China. Right, at least that creates jobs jobs, that is true, but bottom line, we don't know exactly how that's gonna shake out and what that's going to look like off in the future. That's kind of how how I feel about bitcoin.

Speaker 1

I like the way coin, but what about XRP and Solana and these other I definitely.

Speaker 2

Can't get behind those at least. Yeah, Trump's mean coin wasn't a part of a part of the announced reserve, but I guess I just see the potential downsides of the US not having a bitcoin reserve being greater than had we dumped some money into it. Okay, and who the heck knows what's gonna happen. But if like it hits one million by twenty thirty or twenty thirty five, like,

that's something. These are predictions that are being made. We have a friend, Joel, and he recently shared that, and he wasn't he didn't like lay all his cards on the table, but he basically pointed out it was very easy to gather that from a small investment, like back in twenty seventeen in bitcoin, like anywhere between like a twenty thousand dollars and a fifty thousand dollars investment, that his bitcoin is now worth between two and eight million dollars.

That's not chump change. And so you multiply that across something like what the US might be able to do often in the future. It's just something dick And said. I don't think it's the dumbest idea, especially given the vast amounts of money that the US is already spending. I guess I'm just a bit more neutral on the crypto reserve. Yeah, I'm less neutral specifically bitcoin, I'll say that. Yeah, and if it was bitcoin in particular, do you feel differently?

If it was only bitcoin, I would feel little differently.

Speaker 1

I still don't think it's necessarily a smart move by our federal government to go hogwild on crypto, and I think part of it is that a close access that a lot of crypto enthusiasts have to the current administration. That's part of the reason it's happening. It's also been interesting to see the reaction from kind of certain DeFi enthusiasts who are now either rooting for government option. Not everybody, though.

There are some people in the crypto space who say this No, that's the whole point was that like government wasn't involved, that this was essentially a non governmental asset.

Speaker 2

And yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 1

If it does come to fruition, some crypto investors stand to benefit, especially if you own one of these five coins in a meaningful amount. I think the other thing to point out here, Matt, is that some people might say, well,

if this happens, I should buy more cryptocurrency. I should have If the government is getting into it to this degree, well, then certainly I should own a whole lot more cryptocurrency myself, and I think it maybe makes people think about having more of their wealth tied up in cryptocurrency, and that does worry me a little bit too, especially when you look at like the huge bump after the announcement and then guess what, crypto prices went right back down. It's

such a volatile asset. I'm just worried about people thinking they need more cryptocurrency than they actually.

Speaker 2

Do, especially if they're neglecting the tried and true, the bread and the butter potatoes jool instead folks. We don't want folks to get focused on the flakwah.

Speaker 1

You might call it that fua, I might call it the parsley, but but I.

Speaker 2

Don't think anything that we have previously advocated for here on the show changes. Like if you wanted to have up to five percent of your overall portfolio in bitcoin, if you now want to consider some of these other coins, I think that's fine, but let's definitely keep it limited to five percent, ideally a lot less than that. Yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah, you don't want to lose sleep over the machinations, And I think with how quickly it moves a lot of people do if they're over indexed towards crypto, all right man.

Speaker 2

That's going to do it.

Speaker 1

For this episode. We will put links to some of the stories we mentioned today on the show up in the show notes on our website at how toomoney dot com. Don't forget to sign up for the how to Money newsletter. It comes out every Tuesday. It's chock full of helpful information and we would love for it to show up in your inbox. You can find that out how to money dot com slash newsletter. But Matt, I'll do it for this one. Until next time, Best Friends Out, Best Friends Out,

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