Top Five Contenders (Part Two)

of our list as well. Thank you guys for hanging out. Let's go ahead and get started. Alright. So, one of my kind of favorite weird phenomena that I've noticed in the league over the last half decade has been the weird parallels and similarities between the Lakers and the Warriors,

or more Lebron and staff. And they're incredibly different style of play, but the fact that they are so similar to each other in a lot of ways, which is exactly why they've been the two best players to play the game of basketball during this era in my opinion. And that weird phenomena extends to the Lakers and Warriors, because you know, the Warriors underwent a strange identity change

last year. You know, even above and beyond the obvious departure of Kevin Durant and the injury to Clay Thompson, the team is built around Steph Curry and what he brings to the table with his nuclear shooting and the attention that defenses have to pay to him off the ball. And a secret little reality to the reason why they were so successful in the initial run from two thousand fifteen to two thousand nineteen has a lot to do with the types of role players that they put around Steph.

We talked a lot about this a couple of pods ago. The reality is is, while Lebron needs guys that are really good off the ball, right, guys who can cut really well, guys who can shoot really well, guys who can defend really well. You know, Steph kind of needs guys that can do stuff with the basketball. It's very important to have guys around Steph who can make quick reads with the basketball in their hands. Why because the attention that he derives from the defense pulls defenders away

from the basket. So it's actually a lot more important to have guys who can execute a really quick four on three and get a wide open layup or shot than it is for with Lebron, where all the attention is brought to the basket, where he needs guys that can just knock down shots or attack a close out.

Those are the It's a different type of deal with Lebron than it is for Steph, and the Warriors got away from that last year because what you really need with that type of attention that Steph draws are smart basketball players, Guys who are maybe not the most athletic anymore, who maybe aren't even necessarily the best shooters, but guys that can make really good reads putting the ball on

the floor. And a perfect example of this kind of shift is going from Kelly Ubre to Otto Porter Jr. Outo Porter Jr. Is not as talented as Kelly Ubre. Kelly Ubre is a freak athletic talent at the forward position in the league. But with the Warriors, with what Steph needed from that position, there was a massive diminishing return with his skill set, whereas you see these guys like be Elitza and Iguadala and Outo Porter thriving alongside Steph and unlocking a whole other element to this team

because they are smart basketball players. That's that that thrive in that four on three type of environment that I'm describing. That's why last year, with Steph and Draymond playing unbelievable, they were a mediocre team. And this year, with Steph and Draymond playing unbelievable, Steps actually down a little bit this year than he was last year, and the team has been way better. It's been because the Warriors were able to identify that they made a strategic shift that

was not smart. They went away from what was working for them, and they had to get back on that track. And as soon as they did, because Steph is still Steff and because Draymond is still Draymond boom immediate success, and the Lakers have to learn that same lesson because they got away from what made them then in what made the Lakers great was Lebron and a d being unbelievable, just like Stephan Draymond, but just having smart role players

that like to do the dirty work around them. Guys like Danny Green, guys like Alex Cruzo, guys like Kyle Kuzma, guys like Can Tavia's Cobo Pope. That worked and the Lakers got away from that. They traded away a bunch of those guys went all in on Star Powder, which, like I talked about yesterday's pod, the problem with going all in on Russ is the whole reason why you cash in role players in depth for a star is in hopes that he will help you against the top

tier teams. You're betting on the upside of having that extra star. But as we've seen this season, has been clearly demonstrated that Russ actually struggles against the really good defenses because there's so much better at exposing his limitations. That has been a problem throughout the season. It's been a problem for several seasons leading into this, which begs the question is to why they made that change to begin with. However, this is the situation we're in right now.

Lebron is still very much Lebron, just like step was still Steff. So what are the Lakers gonna do. Are they going to understand and learn from their mistake the way the Warriors did last year and go back all in on finding guys that fit with that core of Lebron and a D or are they going to go down with the ship. And that's gonna be an interesting conundrum because I think Lebron's got another year left. So even if it's not with Russ this season, maybe it's

this coming off season. But I'll be curious to see if the Lakers have that same type of ideology that the Warriors had. Hey, we messed up here, we went away from what we were good at. Let's go back in that direction, counting our stars to carry us and see if that will carry us to the finish line. It's very interesting to me the way these two teams have kind of delayed reaction here gone through a similar circumstance of having to learn that lesson, and so I'm

interested to see if the Lakers are going to learn it. Alright, so let's get back to our contenders list. For those of you guys who missed yesterday's pod and you need to check it out. We had Phoenix set number five better than the rest because they have such amazing depth of talent. They have that defensive ceiling, and their top two guys are better, in my opinion, than some of the top two guys on the teams beneath them, the

teams like Utah, the teams like Memphis. That time that tier of team I think is beneath them, um, but they were clearly beneath the other four teams ahead of them. The there are two teams that we mentioned yesterday were Mi Milwaukee at number four. We just saw Janice is just too good for guys like Booker and Chris Paul to keep up with. And then I had the Lakers at number three, same exact issue, and we saw that

in the first round last year. A limited version of lebron in, a limited version of Anthony Davis with no continuity, just because the two of them are so freaking good in a playoff setting. They were up to one on the Suns and having a lot of success in that first half of Game four before Anthony Davis got hurt. That was just a reality. So that's why I had Phoenix at five, Milwaukee at four, in the Lakers at three. But the number two team on my list is the

Brooklyn Nets. They are twelve in offense to this point, tenth and defense, and ninth in NET rating. They've had kind of like a weird, defensively focused season and it's been by necessity because of the Kyrie Irving situation and him being out and James Harden came into season way out of shape and really struggling with some of the

officiating changes. He struggled to start this season, and so it became a situation and where they had to play more defensive minded players and Kevin Durant and this is his m v P case. Kevin Durant has just played unbelievable two way basketball to carry this team to being where they're at at this point in the season. That's where that that is Katie's m v P case, and he deserves a ton of credit for what I've said

this on the pod before. Kevin Durant had a lot of reasons to kind of do to just kind of chill and and be the middle of the pack team and make a run for the playoffs later on with all of the stuff that was going on in all of the distractions, and instead he just decided to play some of the best basketball of his career and to carry the team to where they're at in the standings. They've got a lot of guys coming back. You know,

Kyrie is back for road games now. I anticipate that ke Kyrie is going to be around the team and have so much fun and buy back in emotionally and mentally to this team. I think he's gonna end upeting vaccinated, So I think you're gonna see Kyrie Irving eventually come back in a hundred percent capacity. James Harden is started to look healthy and starting to look more like himself,

and Joe Harris will eventually be coming back. The only real downside to Brooklyn, the big reason why they could get beat by any of the other teams in this list is their lack of a defensive ceiling. You know, it's one thing in the dregs of the regular season, with your scheme and with you know, one player like Kevin Durant playing really really well to get enough stops. But there's a difference between that and what your team can actually hit as a defensive ceiling in a playoff setting.

This big thing I talked about with Anthony Davis and the Lakers last year. The Lakers were getting a lot of stops without Anthony Davis and Lebron credits to Frank Vogel. But doing that in the regular season is different than doing it at the highest level. What Anthony Davis did in Game six against Miami in the finals, that's just a ceiling defensively that a lot of teams can't reach.

Right well, when we're looking at that list, Phoenix can reach that ceiling with Aton and with with mchaial bridges and with what Chris Paul does at the point of attack. They can reach that ceiling defensively. The Bucks shure as hell can with Drew Holiday and Jana Santana Koompo. I know the Lakers can with Lebron and Anthony Davis, and I know the Warriors can. They're the best defense in the league by a country mile. This year. Can Brooklyn

reach that defensive ceiling, I don't know. That's gonna be their big question mark. However, they have another angle up on the rest of the league. Their offensive talent is unmatched in the entire league. We've seen that in last season when the three of them were healthy and they're

switching tack. They're they're switching attack. Their modern approach to basketball, in conjunction with their offensive talent, presents a devastating playoff weapon because they're gonna switch every screen and turn you into an isolation team. And they are an isolation team, and so you are probably gonna switch a lot as well.

So it's gonna turn into an isolation contest, and your isolation contest is going to be trying to outscore and outperform Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and James Harden in that setting. And what we've seen over the course of last year in the playoffs before the injuries, and over the course of last year in the regular season, and you've seen a little bit this year, and you're gonna see it

more now that they're getting their guys back. What they do is they put the ball in the basket, and when they do, they run back and they set their defense. And when they set their defense, it's hard to score in them too, even without their high ceiling, And so it becomes this kind of like compounding effect that you're you're living in the half court against them, trying to

out execute just three unbelievable offensive basketball players. It worked last year and it very well could work again this year. That would make that's what makes them so dangerous. They would have beat the Bucks, probably swept them if it wasn't for the injuries. I genuinely believe that. So that that raises the question, can any of these four teams

beat them? And I don't know, and that's why I have them as the second best team, their second most likely team to win the championship because of the wild card of their offensive attack and the fact that none of these teams can match them that it's hard to quantify styles make fights. A big part of it is if Brooklyn gets into a battle with one of these five teams, will they control things and turn the game into their style or will they devolve into your style,

in which case I think you can beat them. But that wild card is something that makes them very dangerous. And like I said, I think they're the second most likely team to win the championship. All right, we have made it to number one on the list and you probably have guessed it by now. It is the Golden State Warriors. I think the Warriors are the team that is most likely to win the championship this season. They are eleventh in offense, first in defense, first and net rating.

Think about how crazy that is to be eleventh in offense and to be first in net rating. How dominant you would have to be defensively to cover for that type of gap. And I'm not worried about the offense at all. Steph Curry's the best offensive player of this generation. He you know, with Clay coming back, that's the influx of offensive talent to take some attention off of Steph to let him get go. And he hasn't shot the ball overly well this year. Clay and Steff are going

to feed off of each other so well there. In my opinion, they're a better version, more talented version than the two thousand sixteen Warriors. I think Steph is better now than he was in two thousand sixteen. I know some Warriors fans think I'm crazy, That's what I truly believe. Clay Thompson with the injury, it's a little weird. I don't think he'll be as good as he was in twenty nineteen when he was incredible, especially in the postseason.

But he is better than two thousands sixteen Clay Thompson. Two thousand and sixteen Clay Thompson was far more prone to cold spells, struggle a lot in in in in playoff moments, you know, outside of obviously a handful of really big games. Um, but Clay I think is better than the two thousand sixteen version of himself. Andrew Wiggins is a better two way player than Harrison Barnes was.

They have a ton of depth on the wing. They've done a good job replacing, you know, some of the depth that they had in that two thousand sixteen season with veteran minimums, bringing back Andreago Dolla, Guys like out of Porter Jr. Jordan Pool is a much better offense weapon coming off the bench than really anybody they've had in this era. I think they're better than the two thousand sixteen Warriors. This is a very good team now. The whole league is a lot better now, so they're

not going to run away with it in my opinion. Also, the two thousand sixteen Warriors benefited a lot from their unique style of play and teams not knowing how to guard them. There's a much more proven defensive method against the Warriors now than what existed back then. That's why they're not as dominant. That it's not easy to rip off seventy three wins in the NBA. A lot of that had to do with them catching the league off

guard with their style. But in terms of the overall package of the team, in the total talent level and what they're capable of, I think this team is better than the two thousand sixteen Warriors. They are very very

dangerous team. Like I talked about earlier, they went they went through an identity change, a really strange moment there where they were leaning on, you know, guys who were low i Q basketball players, guys like Kelly you Brad Jr. Who struggled to capitalize on the attention that Steph Curry was drawing. They fix that problem. They've brought in a bunch of really smart guys now and they are humming on all cylinders. They have one weakness, but every team

on the list that I mentioned has a weakness. Brooklyn has a weakness, The Lakers have a weakness, The Bucks have a weakness, the Suns have a weakness. They all have weaknesses. The Lakers, the Warriors have a weakness as well. Their weaknesses. They don't have that big, physical, rim pressuring wing that the guy like Janice, the guy like Lebron. They don't have that guy on the roster. And in a playoff setting, that puts you in a situation where you're somewhat at the mercy of makes and mrs um.

But that weakness is a lesser weakness in my opinion than any of the other weaknesses that some of these other teams have around the league. And that's why I think they're the most likely team to win the championship this year. Obviously, a lot can change, you know, teams can make trades, uh, teams can start to play better. Obviously, if they get into a matchup with Brooklyn and Brooklyn really controls the tempo, in the in the in the the of the flow of the game, then Brooklyn can

beat them. Any of these teams can beat any of these teams. I wouldn't be shocked if Phoenix beat Golden State, or if Brooklyn beat Golden State, or if the Lakers beat anybody. I wouldn't be shocked by any of that. I just think the Warriors, as of right now, are the team most likely to win the championship this year. All right, that's all I have for today. We will be back for a postgame show tonight. I'm hoping to be there. We will find out. Um depends on how

the day progresses up in Colorado. But I sincerely appreciate you guys support most see you for the postgame show tonight.