Top Five Contenders (Part One)

in the league. These are to be clear, these are gonna be the five teams that I see that I think are most likely to win the championship, not the teams that have played the best basketball to this point, although that will be factored in. It will be a combination of a bunch of factors that lead to the ultimate question, which five teams are most likely to win

the championship this year? So we're gonna do that. I'm gonna do the numbers five, four, and three in today's pod, and then there will be another pod that releases on Wednesday morning that will cover the number two and number one teams on my list that are most likely to win the championship. But I did want to start by talking about Russell Westbrook for a second. But I talked about this a little bit last night with Raj in

the postgame show after we got destroyed by Memphis. But I wanted to talk a little bit about this Russell Westbrook question because it's it's the biggest cloud hanging over the season in my opinion. Not to be clear, and this is an important context here, Russ is not to blame for the Lakers being where they're at in the standings.

To be clear, As an individual player, I do think you could blame the trade to some extent because of the types of players that went out in the trade, the financial the resulting financial crunch that led to Alex Crusoe being left out of the equation, right, because we know what k c P and Kyle Kuzma and Alex Caruso do as basketball players next to Lebron and Anthony Davis. We know how successful that formula is, so the trade. Weighing the trade is different than weighing the player on

this team. Russ is not to blame for the team being where they're at. That needs to be clearly stated up front. Russ also hasn't been nearly as good as he needs to be in order for that trade to have made any sense. And the latest evidence has been his struggles against good teams in the NBA, and I talked about this last night. He was really bad from

start to finish on both ends. Last night against Memphis and then the previous game against Memphis, he had a critically badged uh stretch of basketball at the end of the third quarter that costs him the game. Then the last good team we played before that, Brooklyn, he was horrible from start to finish, horrifically bad around the basket, and I think it what was he two for fifteen in the paint in that game, and he missed a crucial defensive responsibility on Patty Mills that cost the team

the game. And then he missed a dunk on the other end of poor a poor decision where he wasn't even close to being high enough above the rim and

it cost the team the game. And then as we work further back, he was really bad all game against Phoenix, and especially in the non Lebron minutes in a game where with Lebron on the court, we were tied with Phoenix and we lost by eight team because of how bad we played in the non Lebron minutes and then going back to another game against Memphis where he was really bad, scored in single digits and had six turnovers. That is a issue on the team. It's not the

main issue. Our main issue has been talent. At the beginning of the year, when we had guys healthy, we weren't playing hard enough, and then now since Anthony Davis has gone out, it's a talent issue. So I don't want to blame Russ for where they're at in the standings. However, in order for that trade to have made any sense, Russ needed to be better against the good teams in the league. That's what you do when you trade depth

and role players for a star. Allegedly, you're banking on their ultimate talent will be able to carry you against the best teams in the league. And the reality of the Russell Westbrook situation is he's a limited basketball player.

Right He's easy to guard for the most part. His only positive plays this season have mainly been reckless, the idea of forcing action to the paint when there's really not anything there and him just squeezing in tiny gaps and hurling the ball out to spots on the floor and hoping for the best, which has worked for stretches against bad teams, but against the good teams in this league for the for the most part, it's been ineffective

or downright hurtful to the team. That's a concern because, like I said, when you make the the trade of multiple role players and salary filler for a star, you're banking on that trade helping you against the good teams in the league. And if it doesn't, then you run into this situation where all of a sudden, you know, Anthony Davis goes down, and that third star that's supposed to be the guy that can help you in this situation actually is largely ineffective. And so again, Russ is

not the problem. He's not the problem, but he is a problem, and he's a problem that could have been avoided. And the only reason I say it could have been avoided is because anybody who's watched Russell Westbrook over the last couple of years has known that this is the phase of the career that he's of his career that he's in. When he was younger and freakishly athletic, the chaos and the reckless decision making was all still there. He just was such a nuclear athlete that he brought

a huge positive element to the game. Teams could not keep the guy out of the paint, and when he got there, he finished all the time. Whereas now he's getting there a lot, a lot more than most guards in the league. But it's a reckless, forced drive to the basket with a team that's prepared for him to do so, and he's not finishing when he gets there, and that's an issue and that we could all see

coming a mile away, and that was the concern. Tomorrow Mornings Pod, before we do number two and one on the list, I'm gonna dive a little bit deeper into this concept having to do with the Lakers and the Warriors both kind of losing sight of what made them good. And we'll talk a little bit about that, like I

said tomorrow, before we get into the list. But let's go ahead and get started with our top five contenders this season again, top five teams that I think are most likely to win the championship, and first on my list, I should say fifth on my list is Phoenix. They are currently eighth in offense, second in defense, and third in net rating. Chris Paul is giving you fourteen and ten and only two point three turnovers per game. He's

he looks great. Booker's efficiency is down a little bit, but he's twenty four, five and five and he's shooting the ball really well from three. UM. They're both playing really well there. They look every bit as good as they did last year. Uh. They have amazing depth. I would say they have the best depth of talent in the league. Cam Johnson and Michael Bridges are both over

from three and averaging about twelve points per game. DeAndre Ayton is giving you seventeen and eleven and on any given night can outplay any of the top big men slash huge athletes that we have in the league. And that's a huge, huge weapon to have on the roster. Um. That is what makes them better than the Utahs in the Chicago's, in the memphisis of the league. They have this elite high end isolation score in Devin Booker, which we know brings a great deal of value in the playoffs.

They have this elite high end playmaker in Chris Paul that can take advantage of the very very tiny gaps that materialize in playoff defenses. And they have this depth of wing talent and and athleticism that again we know, brings a ton of value in a playoff setting. They can reach a a defensive ceiling with all of their athletes that only a handful of teams in the league

can reach. We're gonna talk about this in my list of the five teams that I have, Brooklyn is really the only team that can't reach this unbelievable defensive ceiling. That's kind of like a wash between all those teams except for Brooklyn, and we'll talk to Brooklyn. We'll talk about Brooklyn when we get there. But there's just a level that Phoenix can get to with their wings in their defense that the Utahs and the Chicago's in the memphisis of the world can't each and that will always

be a leg up for them. And then they also have CP three and Devin Booker, t proven playoff weapons

that have done well on that level. However, the reason why I have them fifth, the reason why I have them beneath Golden State Milwaukee, and I won't share the other names yet just yet, but the reason why I have them below is in any given playoff series against the top tier teams in the league, they're gonna have probably the third or fourth best players on the floor, but the other team is probably gonna have the first or second best players on the floor. And that's an

issue in the playoffs set. It because in the playoffs setting, when defense is really really tightened down and they start switching everything and canceling out all your actions, and the refs are swallowing the whistle, and all that stuff you used to do during the regular season with your regular season machine kind of stops working. In that setting. It

becomes about superstars making plays. And what we saw last year in the playoffs is there were stretches where Devin Booker could go on streaks of shot making where he could kind of hang with those top guys for short stretches. But we saw Chris Paul really really struggle in that setting to where he was in a lot of games

getting outplayed by Drew Holiday. That's an issue because when you're going against the top teams in the league, you're gonna be going against Steph Curry and Clay Thompson and Draymond Green and Johannas Antenna Coompo and Kevin Durant, Lebron James Anthony Davis. These guys across the way, the teams you're gonna be competing against, have extremely high end, top end talent on their roster, and that will, forever as long as the game of basketball is played, be a

monumental impact on a playoff series. And so to me, even though Phoenix has looked so good this year and looked so good in the playoffs last year, if you look really closely, they just had to outex acute a Laker team that lost Anthony Davis. And we know that that team, that particular team, the Lakers, has so much of their talent tied up in Lebron and a D. So when one of them go down, they're pretty bad. And then they go in and they play a Denver

team that same situation. They don't have um Jamal Murray, so they're just not capable really from a talent level, of hanging with with Phoenix. And then they go in against the Clippers and they don't have Kawhi Leonard and so the same concept. Even the Clippers, who had utterly maximized modern basketball with that roster, they just didn't have enough talent to hang with hang with Phoenix. And then they run into the finals, and suddenly those warts show

against the team that's healthy and has their stars. So as good as Phoenix is, and they're still very likely to win the championship. I'm just saying they're the fifth most likely team to win the championship, but that lack of star power, in my opinion, will always hold them back against the Golden States and the Brooklyn's in the Milwaukee's of the league. That's gonna be a problem for them.

That doesn't go away. The fourth team on my list, the fourth most likely team to win the NBA Championship this season in my opinion, is the Milwaukee Bucks. They're currently seventh in offense, ninth in defense, and seventh in net rating. Despite having some pretty bad luck with injuries and COVID, Johannis and Drew still very much look like

Johannis and Drew. They look fantastic. Y honest is starting to show a little bit more shot making, although I don't think that's as important as some of the other things in his game. We'll talk about that in a minute. Um Chris Middleton's having a down year, but he's been in and out of the lineup, so I wouldn't worry about that too much. Pat Conatton is playing great, Bobby

Porters is playing great. West Matthews has turned out to be a great fit to the to the to the horrible news for Laker fans, as as we all wanted him to come back, especially me. I I advocated for West. I'm not sure why they decided not to bring him back, but he's fitting in great with Milwaukee. They are more or less the same team that they were last year in in a lot of ways, and I am a huge believer in what they do. So then you might

ask why do I have them forth? And it really isn't any more complicated than does Janice have the ability to out execute the absolute top tier talent in a playoff setting four times out of seven? Because you know, they have the defensive ceiling. Like I said, they're going to be able to defend just as well as a Phoenix or a Golden State or or any of those teams that have all the athletic talent that they have. You know, Janice obviously brings a ton to the table defensively.

I'm not worried about that at all. But on the offensive end, when things really slow down and you're stuck in the half court. What can Yannice brain compared to the top tier team of players in the league. I know he can out execute Chris Paul and Devin Booker. I've seen that he can out execute those guys. I know he can just barely out execute Brooklyn. If James Harden is on a bad hamstring and Kyrie Irving can't play and Joe Harris forgets how to shoot, I know

he can do that. But the last two times they played the Lakers, when Lebron and a D were healthy, they went down to Staples Center and got beat handily, and Lebron was way better than him. And then they went on the road to Milwaukee, and the last season before the Lebron in a D injuries and they beat him in Milwaukee, and Lebron and a D looked great. Because it's different when you're playing the top tier teams, when they have their stars healthy and they're engaged on

the defensive end. In that type of setting, it's a different level of basketball. I know j honest can out execute the Hawks. I know he can out execute that injury ravaged Brooklyn team and that Phoenix team where he's just having to do better than Chris Paul, who's really struggling, Withdrew Holiday, and with Devin Booker, who can get on some hot streaks. But there's another level to this, and that will be the level to me that if Janice can cross that, then he's the best player in the league.

I'm not beholden to holding him down if he accomplishes that goal. I'm all in on the honest train. But to me, that next level for him is staring down the great teams at full strength, with the greatest players in the game, and beating them. And that's the next step.

I thought Kevin Durant was clearly better than Janice in that Eastern Conference semi final series last year, and at the end of those games, you're watching those games and you're like, man, Milwaukee has a lot more talent because of all the injuries that Brooklyn was dealing with and because of Joe Harris's struggles, But the game's just kind of lingered around and stayed close, and all of a sudden, you're like, man, that's Kevin freaking Durant and he's making

all these shots and he's extending the series. And now all of a sudden, you're couple inches away from potentially losing. That's that next level. That's what Janice had to prove to me in order for me to think that he's better than Kevin Durant, better than Lebron James, better than Stephan Curry. But so I have them as the fourth most likely team to win the title because I do

think that's a possible outcome. I just would put my money on the other three teams that I'm about to mention because of the fact that they have top tier talent that has proven they can out execute the best teams and the best players in the league in a seven game setting. That to me, is that next step free honest, I hope he takes it. I'm rooting for him.

I just don't necessarily think he's there yet, so I've Milwaukee it for I think the Los Angeles Lakers are the third most likely team to win the championship this year. And I know that sounds crazy, and I know that's completely not based on anything that has actually happened on the court this season. They've been twenty three in offense

this year and defense twenty and net rating. Even if you do throw out DeAndre Jordan's minutes and throw out some of the weird COVID lineups that they've had to use. They have not looked like a top tier team in the league this year. That goes without saying, So why do I have them third? It really isn't all that complicated.

We have a proven method for success in the modern NBA, and that is Anthony Davis at center, Lebron James at power forward, both playing at the top of their games, and the fact that teams just can't match up with them when they do that. Like I've mentioned earlier, the last two times they've played the Bucks, they've manhandled the Bucks,

including once in Milwaukee. When Lebron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, and we know what they did when they were in the bubble, we know their winning percentage over the last three years when those two guys are healthy. And that's even with last season and this season Anthony Davis being a significantly lesser version of himself than he was in that belief will always be what brings me to consider the Lakers a legitimate championship contender. Lebron looks fantastic.

He's playing arguably some of the best two way basketball of his career. He's playing this new modern style as a center, which I think will maintain even when Anthony Davis comes back. I almost look at it as like Lebron at center, Anthony Davis at power forward. These Braun at center lineups are plus two point three per one possessions and four hundred and seven minutes, and that's even including that minus thirty complete ship show last night against Memphis.

The truth of the matter is the Lakers have a trade to make th Ht is playing much better. He is valued around the league, and him and Kendrick Nunn will package together and bring a wing back. I feel very confident about that. So when push comes to shove and you're in a playoff setting, you're going to have to play Anthony Davis, Lebron James in a legitimate wing in the front court, and some arsenal of role players coming in and out of that system. We talked a

lot about Russ earlier in the pod. If you haven't heard that yet, just go back and listen to the beginning of this pod. But you know, regardless of the Russ fit, that dynamic front court presents a legitimate weapon. And if you had to ask me, what's more likely to happen that the Phoenix Suns, with their lack of top tier star power, will beat Golden State and then go on to beat Kevin Durant or Jana Santana Coompo

in the finals. Do you think that's more likely than Lebron and a D figuring it out and getting healthy and getting on the court. In Lebron and a D beating Steph Curry in the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals, in Lebron in a D beating Janice or Kevin Durant the finals, I take my chances with Lebron and a D and that will always be the ultimate trump card.

And that's why, even with as much of a ship show as the season has been, I think they are the third most likely team to win the championship this year. There are a couple of little things they have to figure out, you know, Like I tweeted this last night and talked about it on the pod last night. But when Lebron's at center, they can't play all these small guards, you know, Russ, Monk Bradley. Uh, those three guys are

all six three and under. They played I think eighteen minutes last night, and they went minus forty six point eight net rating against Memphis. When you're playing these good teams that have all this size, you just can't play all these tiny guards. And I know that's going to be an issue, but that goes away when Anthony Davis comes back. That goes away when you upgrade th HT into a bigger wing. This team is so far from what they are going to be in April or May.

And like I, like I said all year, when will I stop believing in the Lakers. I'll stop believing in the Lakers. When Lebron or Anthony Davis can't finish a playoff game, That's when I'll stop believing in the in the Lakers, or if one of them is playing severely hampered by injury. But as long as those two are healthy, I trust Frank Vogel to put something around them to work. In a playoff setting, they are simply more dangerous than a team that can't execute in the half court or

a team that lacks that top tier star power. Alright, that is it for Part one of our Contenders Pod Part two, including the second and first most likely teams to win the championship or tomorrow. I'm also going to do a little bit of a deep dive on the Lakers and Warriors and their identity changes. As always, we appreciate your guys support and we will see you tomorrow