Hoops Tonight x Nerd Sesh - Will Suns miss playoffs? Lakers & Warriors title chances, Embiid MVP?

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eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and responsible gaming resources. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight. You're at the volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week. The guys from Nerd Sech, Mister Logan Camden, and Carson Breber are joining the show today. We're gonna break down five, I've toss up questions around the NBA. We're gonna have some fun today. You guys are the joke for we

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channel and give those guys a subscribe as well. They are just doing excellent content, not just covering the NBA, but covering the NFL and just basically the entire world of sports as well. These are two guys that have a great deal of respect for and I think they do an amazing job, and I think that you guys should get over there and support them. So on that note,

let's go to question number one. What is more likely to happen Logan the Sun's winning a playoff series or the Suns missing the playoffs altogether.

since then it has all fallen apart. When Bradley Beal went down again, it really deflated the Suns. It felt like it took a lot of the energy out of the building. I mean the other night, you see when Grayson Allen and Chimezi Metu were playing their tails off and Devin Booker and Kde can't pull their weight. Right now, I'd say that I think it's more likely they completely miss out on the playoffs. They're fifteen and fifteen right now,

they're currently the ten seed overall on the season. They're thirteenth in offensive rating at one fifteen point seven, and they're nineteen the defensive rating at one fifteen point three, and they're just right below the league average in net rating. And I just think it's because how deep the West is, man. I mean, you look at the teams that are below the right now, the Warriors I still think have a chance and I think will leap frog them. I think

it's to be hard for them to take over teams like the Lakers, even the Rockets or Pelicans, just they're abysmal defensively, Like this is a completely unseerious team defense, and Nurkic is not the block that I thought he was on the backside. I don't think they have any

positive point of attack. Guys. This is a stagnant offense that can really lull themselves into bad tendencies, settling for mid range jump shots, you know, committing a lot of turnovers, and you see the seeds are being planted now with this major drama that Kevin Durant's becoming really frustrated and ironically, guys, if you want to be optimistic about the Sun situation,

we find ourselves in the same situation. The last time we talked, we were hoping that the big threes, overwhelming offensive skill talent can lead them through and that Bradley Beal coming back from an injury is going to be the answer for the Suns. I don't think it is. I wouldn't take them to win a playoff series right now, and yeah, I would probably take them to be a play in team or to comp miss out on the playoffs.

I have lost all optimism about the Phoenix Suns and their title chances at this point in the season.

with or without Bradley Beal. That was the thing that we would have highlighted as their achilles heel before the season, but seeing it in practice, they are very much locked into that below average range on that side of the ball.

And their problem is that they had to scrap together whatever supporting cast they could after really investing all their resources in this Big three, and so it was all about value ads who could they get with the very limited resources they had, And now they have a bunch of one way role players. They have guys like Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen who will give you positive offensive value who are shooting the whites out this season, but when that is your starting backcourt, you just don't have

enough plus defenders. Nearly when those guys play together, the team has a defensive rating of one to eighteen. You cannot contend in any serious way with a line of configuration like that. And then you have the guys who theoretically should be the plus point of attack, defenders who maybe you could play alongside the starters Josh Okogi Jordan Goodwin,

who are just inept offensive players. They can't knock down open shots, they're under thirty percent from three, and so you can't put those sort of incompetent offensive guys in a serious lineup if you want to contend either. And then NRK at the five is just not good enough. He's exploitable defensively, we will see him cooked out of

pick and roll in big time situations. And then offensively, yes, he brings some value with rebounding and with his passing IQ, but I don't think that he's a good enough athlete to give you this sort of hyper efficient rim finishing that would be a nice dimension for this offense have. So that is the biggest problem to me, the defensive ceiling, the overall limitations of these role players, and that has

led to them not being a good clutch offense. You think that with the level of difficult shot making you get from booking KD, they should always be able to guide you down the stretch in these games, but teams are able to load up on those two aggressively and force them into basically either tough jumpers or turnovers. The Suns have been twenty sixth in clutch offensive rating this year. They're twenty fourth in clutch turnover percentage. And that's where

getting Bradley belback does help. When you have three legit, high level threats with the ball in their hands, three big time shot makers on and off ball, that raises their offensive ceiling a bit. Maybe that makes them a top ten offense, but it's not a cure all because, as we said before the season, there's still skill set redundancies there. You don't have a high level rim pressure. All these guys sure are capable off the ball, but

they are primarily on ball creators. They've just constructed a basketball team that is overly reliant on the star players who don't fit each other well enough to offset the real limitations of the supporting cast. And of course, I don't know why we would expect Bradley Beal, or at least this entire Big three to be healthy. Biel has played fewer than fifty percent of all possible games in

the last two plus seasons. And I hate to say it, but Katie's track record ever since coming back from the Achilles tear says it is quite unlikely that he stays as healthy as he has been for this entire year. I mean, he's been available almost every game, and he's been playing closer to fifty percent of games over the last three regular seasons. So I'm just not encouraged by

any of that. And you can ask Book to float the ship for a bit, and he's actually been a little bit better at that without KDI than Katie has been vice versa. But either way, I mean, you're not a serious threat if that's your situation. And then if they do make the playoffs, you look at who they're gonna draw in the first round. They can't beat Denver.

I mean that is a team that has more consistent automatic offense as a higher defensive ceiling, has significant physical advantages in the front cocor the best player in that series, I mean, just up and down, way better supporting cast just in a totally different tiers of basketball. Team Minnesota, I think that elite defensive foundation, their physical advantages. Okse

just has way more high quality basketball players. They're an elite two way team, so it's like maybe if they draw that one matchup the Clippers the Kings, then they would have a shot. But I don't know. I'm not optimistic whatsoever about this team winning a playoff series.

of specific things that stand out to me. Their spot up shooting percentage has been bottom ten in the NBA, at least going into last night. Last night, they shot really well down in Houston, but that is a specific problem for them with the amount of attention that's getting thrown at Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and ball screens. I look at that as something that not just Bradley Beal could help with, but also just leaning into the

right guys in their rotation two. Devin Booker just has not been playing very well as of late by his standard.

And so I expect Devin Booker to play better. One thing they did last night in Houston that I thought was really interesting is they put Kevin Durant on the ball a lot more, ran a lot more ball screens with him. They ran more ball screens with him last night in Houston than they have at any point in any game this season. They scored twenty six points on fifteen Kevin Durant pick and rolls, which is one point

seven three points per possession. Kevin Durant really leaned into passing out of pick and roll That was what made them so good when he was in Brooklyn. The good stretches in Brooklyn were a heavy dose of Kevin Durant in high pick and roll, and I think that that's been an interesting direction that they haven't gone as far into this year that I think that this last night

down in Houston, because here's the thing. Dylan Brooks didn't play last night, but Houston is the second best defense at home in the NBA, and it has a one to zero three defensive rating there and generally speaking has been a very good defense, and Kevin Durant has lit him on fire last night, and so I do think they can play better on offense. The other thing too, just shot diet stuff like they lean a lot into ISO. Kevin Durant's just been down as an ISO player this year,

which has been part of it. They're not getting as many of the easy shots that a lot of the other teams around the league get off the strength of their defense. And then on defense, they're actually a very good rebounding team, and I think they can play better defense than they have. Kevin Durant has demonstrated in his career that he can be a deeply impactful lowman and he's straight up just hasn't been as good this year

as he's capable of being. Devin Booker and Grayson Allen in particular have been really sloppy in their rotations on the weak side. I think those guys can get better. And then again, like all of this was designed to be built around the idea of the three stars playing together. Now here's the deal, Carson, Your point is completely fair, Like they are betting on Bradley Beal's health, which has

been a risky bet. But if we're talking about this team and what their potential is, we need to look at it through the lens of what it could look like if they get to April and Bradley Beal is healthy, and if he is, that should help with their weak side shooting. It should help alleviate workloads so Kevin Durant can be a better lowman. It should help alleviate workloads so Devin Booker can compete more at the point of

attack and in rotation. It should help with their late game issues, which a lot of that I think comes down to fatigue, because so much of their offense comes down to the same two guys doing the same thing every single time, and they just get tired and predictable by the time they get to the end of the games, so I do think they can play better. So I'm going to go with I think it's more likely that they win a series than miss the playoffs, simply because

I just don't think they're going to miss the playoffs. Now, before we move on, obviously, the First Takes and all the other taking shows out there have been talking heavily about this idea of Kevin Durant and him needing to go somewhere else, or whether or not he made his

own bed, and all these other things. And my question for you guys is, and we'll start with you, Carson, what is your take on Kevin Durant post Golden State in terms of just what he's prioritized as a basketball player, in the types of situations that he's put himself in.

they were nineteenth, then they were thirteenth. When he got traded, they were an okay defenses Classon had come into his own and whatnot. And then this year the Suns are eighteenth and defensive rating. And the reason for that, to me, is that he has prioritized playing with these highly skilled but small and also, by the way, extremely injury prone guards. Like we saw two and a half years of him and Kyrie, they played seventy four games together. Now we've

seen him play five games with Bradley Beal. You can't really say that he would be surprised by either one of those totals, given those guys track records. And he's basically put together these big threes where you have no plus defenders and you have these very skilled perimeter shot makers. Right Like Kyrie is a basketball artist, Devin Booker has

this incredible all around skill. I mean, the post game, is a guard right, the mid range, all these things that has a basketball purist I think Katie personally really values because like that's the kind of basketball that he plays. He plays beautiful basketball as a pure scorer. But then you have these gaping deficiencies where there's no consistent rim pressure. Out of those guys, you are going to be basically guaranteed to be a poor defense because of who you've prioritized,

and then there's just some skill set redundancies there. So he's basically left these rosters with almost no room for real plus two way role players like Phoenix doesn't have

any where. I would say, like, that guy's legitimately good on both sides of the ball. He's just gonna play his role at a really high level. Brooklyn, they had Bruce Brown, ultimately they let go. They had Nick Claxton, who again had grown into a really high level defender,

and then Katie left that situation. So it just feels to me like he is sort of prioritizing hoopers just like guys whose games he admires, and not thinking about, Okay, how is this actually going to lead to championship basketball repeatedly cost him.

a game of fives. We're just getting buckets. NBA basketball is different, and I think to hand your keys over to a player and to let him construct your entire roster, and obviously he's not doing that. Top to bottom. Your GM and your guys are finding the role players, but you're letting him allocate the majority of the cap and all of the money that you would be able to put really good two way role players behind him, and you're giving it to, like you said, Carson, guys with

skill set redundancies. Nobody's gonna you know, nobody's gonna doubt that the Brooklyn Nets weren't tough. Yeah, they had three of the toughest buckets ever. Nobody's gonna doubt that the Suns aren't tough. They've got three of the toughest buckets ever. But winning an NBA title and winning a pickup game or two very different things, and you need an entire roster to go and do that. And I don't know. I just don't think that players are the best general managers.

I think it's just kind of wrong to let a guy walk into your organization and say I want this guy, this guy, and this guy. As an organization, I think you have to put your foot down at some point and say this is not the best use of our resources. We need to go and get more depth. It's not worth us putting all of these resources into just stars. That's just not how you win a title.

Twenty twenty one was one of the most wide open seasons that I can remember in modern NBA history. And like, I know, Kevin Durant was all like, oh yeah, maybe if my foot was behind that line. You know, I was fatigued. You know, guys were hurt. Blah blah blah. Okay, that's nice, and all you beat the fucking Hawks. You beat the Hawks. Okay, you beat the Hawks, and then you go to the finals and by then Kyrie's probably healthy again on his ankle, and you probably beat Phoenix,

like I really do think they were close. And a lot of this is like a lot of this is like the winner tells the story. And you know, it's funny because like I've had I've had people NonStop all year talking to me like like, oh, I can't believe you think the Lakers are a contender. They're not a

real basketball team. They have no chance of winning. And it's like, you know, what's not a brave take that that the one team that gets to hoist the trophy you get to take a victory lap because there's a twenty nine out of thirty chance that you're correct with these other with these other teams, right, Like that's is like it's really easy to go back and be like abject failure. And it's like they were this close to achieving the most difficult thing to achieve in the game

of basketball, which is hoisting the Larry O'Brian Trophy. And so some of it is is a little bit like revisionist history. That said, there are some issues with that availability with Kyrie that were documented beforehand. There are some issues with availability with Bradley Beal that were documented beforehand.

I really liked the focus on redundancy from Carson and I talk about this concept all the time in basketball, like everything is has nothing to do with your two k ratings, so to speak, and the individual talent of each player. Every basketball team is this is a product of the sum of its parts. And every time you add different basketball players together, there are certain things they do that compliment each other well, and there a certain things that they do that don't compliment each other well.

And if we look back through NBA history, I would argue the Denver Nuggets last year are the least redundant basketball team I've ever like literally I've ever seen. You could not construct five more completely different basketball players in that starting lineup that fit together so perfectly. The Golden State Warriors, there's no redundancy there. They are all so different that twenty twenty two team, even the Milwaukee Bucks, every single one of those guys had a unique skill

set that they brought to the table. The Los Angeles Lakers like it was just It is a consistent theme throughout NBA history that the teams that win at the end of the day have an assortment of different kinds

of basketball players. I do think it's interesting that Kevin Durant and his desire to partner with Kyrie and James Harden, and his desire to partner with Devin Booker and Bradley Beal signifies to him that Kevin's view of the best way to win basketball games is to have this incredible amount of basketball skill on the floor and to be able to outskal people. Now, it's really easy for us to be like that doesn't work, because he came this close.

and Kyrie, why did that work? Because they were so different, right, they bring different things to the table, even Lebron and Anthony Davis on so many different levels, and so it just it's just to me, it's I think it's okay to point out that Kevin Durant tried to take a very alternative approach and that there are more proven methods that Kevin Durant neglected. That said, I think it's revisionist history to just say he made the wrong decisions because

he came close. And we don't know what's gonna happen in Phoenix yet, and I do believe that there's some potential for them to gain some steam and to make a run. So my thing is like, and Logan, you brought this up to like, you're right, players don't make a GMS. Lebron James is, in my opinion, the second best basketball player to ever touch a basketball court and arguably the smartest basketball player to ever touch a basketball court.

I thought the decision to blow up all of the wing talent and athleticism they had to bring in an incredibly flawed star that everybody in the world knew is going to make the Lakers a worst team overnight, and you find out that Lebron was actively pushing for it behind the scenes. That's the same type of mistake, right. It's just we give Lebron so much more leeway because he has four freaking championships, right But and he made

it to the Western Conference finals again last year. But like I think, I think Kevin Durant is getting targeted a little bit here just because it's an easy NBA storyline in the middle of the season. All right, moving on, who is a more serious title contender? The Oklahoma City Thunder or the Minnesota Timberwolves. Will start with Logan.

still jump up in there. I'm skeptical about the Clippers, Sons, and Kings for two way value stuff like that, And I really believe in this defense and their ability to slow down any Western Conference foe that they run into. And I think when you look at Minnesota, the majority of the losses that they have suffered this year, it's been down to really three reasons. And again you can blanket statement these keys for a lot of NBA games,

but it's been evident with Minnesota. It's Lackaday's wal turnovers, it's poor effort defensively, and it's been red hot shooting nights from their opponents. Five of the seven losses that Minnesota has suffered has been when a team has had a true shooting percentage of six sixty percent or better. Again, you can make that mostly again a blanket statement for a lot of loss of the team suffer, but it's

been evident with Minnesota. The one advantage I will give Oklahoma City concretely over Minnesota at this point is their half court offense creation and their just depth of weapons offensively. I think that really could be the marginal difference in a series that you know Karl Anthony town is gonna have to pull his weight, Anthony Edwards is going to after consistently reach that superstar level, which he has done on big stages, but that's still the biggest variable here.

When Oklahoma City Sgake and Evan off night and Check can take over knocking down shots getting to the rack, he's so good. Jalen Williams dropped you know, thirty six the other night. He's a ninetieth percentile isolation player this season. An isolation procession from Jalen Williams is worth one point two to four points. That's absurd. He's a seventy second percentile pick and roll ball handler like point blank. Minnesota just does not have the depth of offensive weapons that

Oklahoma City does. And Oklahoma City is a damn good defense too. So I guess I'm gonna say I want to hit the pause button here because I want one more month. I think Oklahoma City and Minnesota, like Golden State in LA, need to do something at the deadline. I think the majority of teams across the league need to make a move to get marginally better at the deadline. Oklahoma City finding a secondary or tertiary offensive weapon another

one to put them over the top. I know both of you guys have discussed Laurie Markinen would be awesome if they could make a swing for him with their picks, and I think Minnesota needs to make another swing too to put themselves over the top to keep pace, because

again I think they have the defensive personnel and the physical advantages to stifle La, to limit Denver just a little bit to open the door. But they are just in a different class offensively than Denver. Denver is in a different tier, So for me, I think Minnesota. I like Minnesota more because their defensive ceiling, but they have

to make a move at the deadline. I'm shopping Kyle Anderson in aw I'm shopping Shake Milton Troy Brown junior and picks Like whatever I can whatever move I can make to get another bench piece or another option offensively to give me easy offense come playoff time is what I'm doing. But I think I'm just marginally like Minnesota more because of their defensive consistency. But Oklahoma City is a damn good contender too. I legit by into both of these teams potentially making a playoff run.

ring and reach the actual apex of the sport. I mean, Jason, you remember I was crazy high on chet as a prospect. I said he was the best guy who I had ever been able to really evaluate. I love I think Jalen is even underrated. Like I think he's a perennial third star. He is rarely good for a second year guy. They're awesome, but right now it's Minnesota. I think there's a few concrete reasons for that. Number one is how well they match up physically against the big elite teams

in the West. I think that is going to be a very important component. Just with the way that the best teams in the league have gone. You are looking at big, athletic, strong front courts, and Minnesota is the epitome of that with their two big looks, and they're just really athletic all around, with Jade McDaniels and Anthy Edwards and Okay, see, he is very athletic, but in the front court they're slight. They're twenty ninth in rebound rate this year, and I think teams like the Nuggets

the Lakers can expose that. Chid is an unbelievable pure rim protector. His timing, his length and all that, but he's not an elite rebounding five, and I just think that level of strength really presents problems for OKC on the interior, Whereas Minnesota, they have as good a formula for guarding Aniko Jolkic as anybody does in the league. Put tat on him, that's a really big body. You have Gobar there and help. They're gonna match up on the glass against anybody. I think that that matters in

playoff scenarios, especially looking at the competition out west. I also think they have a depth advantage. It's good for both these teams, but they are seven deep with damn good players, and we talk about the lack of redundancies. I think Minnesota's put together a really nice, complimentary basketball team. I had offensive concerns about playing cat alongside a true five, But I think that you are looking at a lot of guys.

off the bench. Those guys are really good. Are they as multifaceted maybe as some of these more veteran guys who were talking about that's a question, But honestly, my concerns are maybe more with a couple of the guys in the starting five, Like as long as Josh Giddy is closing games and playing twenty five minutes a game, I think that's a problem. I just think he is not very good. And this was always my problem with

him being the number six pick in the draft. He's in a player archetype that we haven't seen successful in the league ever. Like his passing is awesome, but to be a really good offensive player in the NBA today, you have to be a high level threat both as a score and a passer. And this is a guy who is a below average athlete, who has bad touch, who has a broken jump shot, who is going to

be a negative defensively. I mean we're seeing it this year, right, He's given you eleven a night on fifty percent true shooting. I think he takes the offense out of rhythm. I don't think he holds defensive accountable as a spot up shooter. I think he is going to be an addition by subtraction situation if they can move off of him. And then even a guy like Lou Dort who has been awesome this year. He is shooting the hell out of

the ball. I've just seen too many times from him in the past where he gets in these stretches where it's brick after brick after brick, and that can be a question of shot selection. So I don't have the same level of faith with those fourth and fifth guys that I do with the Minnesota dudes who just excel in their roles and then they are much more experienced. Mike Conley has been in multiple deep playoff runs, as

has Kyle Anderson. Go Beart has been to the second round a few times, had an ant have at least been to the playoffs multiple times. Teams don't win titles when nobody on their team has real playoff experience, and that is the case for Oka. See Shay has been there, sure, but he's never been there as the guy. Lou has been in one playoff series and that's it. That's the entirety of the playoff experience on this roster in this rotation, outside of Isaiah Joe being a garbage time guy in

Philly that doesn't count. There's maybe one exception historically to that rule, that being the nineteen seventy seven Blazers. Very young team, but overwhelmingly it certainly helps to have been there before, to have been in those battles, And there's a physical maturity with Minnesota along with that mental maturity. I just think they scale better to a playoff setting right now. But long term, boy, I am high on what OKAC can do.

They have so much upside it's not even funny. But there's just two big red flags for me, Like the Western Conference is huge on the front line and they are tiny, And everything we know about NBA history tells us that the longer you get into a playoff series,

that's where physical matchups matter more and more. I know I'm in some trouble with thunderfans because I did my power rankings before the Minnesota win and I said, I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of beating Minnesota, LA or Denver four times out of seven because of the frontline seize mismatches. And then they beat the shit out

of Minnesota. And of course I look silly, but genuinely speaking, when you get to the to the to the playoffs and you get into a seven game setting, the whistle gets a little tighter, it becomes a more physical game. I just am worried about them on the front line. And then that second piece of it is like, I mean, shout out to the nineteen seventy seven Blazers, but like, kids don't win in the NBA, they just don't. Sometimes kids make some noise, but kids don't win in the NBA.

And when they do, it's like twenty six, twenty seven years old and they're surrounded by vets. Usually at that point, this team has not just a lack of championship experience, they have a or lack of playoff experience. I should say they have ala like a basketball experience. These are all kids, These are young, young basketball players, and so I when I look at that, those are just giant red flags for me that say, like, hey, listen to what NBA history tells you. Doesn't mean they can't win.

It just means they would be beating the odds. It's kind of like and for the record, the counterpoint there is what happened with Denver last year. We have never not in recent NBA history, It had been since we saw a non defending champion, non top ten defense be able to you know, win the NBA Championship. And they won comfortably and often on the strength of their defense. So like literally it was it's it can be done. It's just I think Denver is more of the exception

to the rule. And we also have to account for the fact that Jokic's best player in the world right now, and I as good as Shay is, I don't believe he is. Uh the Looking at Minnesota, they have a big red flag two that I always look at, which is they're really bad at half court offense in general, like when things get super physical, like having a bunch of guys that are capable of of of really high level close out attacking and having two really high end

shot creators are really important. And I'm not saying that Ant's not capable of that, but that certainly is a concern for me. But to your point, Carson, they have two massive green flags, which is they have a lot of experience and they're huge. Those are just two very very important pieces to a playoff run. I don't view either of them as top tier contenders I look at I still only think Boston and Denver are capable of saying like, hey, we have like a really good chance

of winning this year. I think everybody else is like, is like long shot chance pending a good trade like and where good trade could potentially vault them into that next level. But yeah, I again, it's not an anti Oklahoma City take. I have a ton of fun watching Oklahoma City. Dude. Jalen Williams was cooking the New York Knicks last night, just cooking them like he was pulling Todds Gibson out into switches and barbecuing him. He was utilizing the picking pop which at home, we're gonna getting

open looks. He started picking on Julius Randolin switches like the kid is insanely good, and he's on a stretch here. Just in the last couple of weeks he's really turned up the scoring volume and efficiency last nine games Jalen Williams twenty points per game, fifty seven percent from the field, fifty three percent from three, eighty six percent from the line, and logan you mentioned is isolation numbers, which have been off the charts, Like they are freaking awesome. It's just

this is not their year. I just I like, I think they'll I think they'll give somebody a really tough fight, and they'll have some moments where they win a game in Oka See and you're like, man, these guys are gonna be a problem for a long time. But just game five, Game six, Game seven, it's just gonna be the bigger, stronger teams that kind of wear them down.

I know they've had some success against the bigger teams in a regular season sample, but I do think that they've probably been one of the best effort and consistency teams this year, which is obviously good.

so he's improved as a jump shooter. His playmaking has been much better, not just the production, but I think he's been more comfortable taking on those responsibilities, running more diverse actions as a playmaker, more handoffs at times, even handling the ball in transition and whatnot. And then I do think that he has been better dissecting double teams

and whatnot. And he's the driving factor behind a top three offense and a top three defense that has just been utterly dominant when he plays of twenty five guys who protect the most shots at the rim. He has the second best opponent field goal percentage. Differentially, he holds people like thirteen percent below their typical percentage at the rim while he is putting forth these unprecedented numbers offensively. And again, the team success, which is always a major

component in MVP conversations. We went almost thirty years without a guy who wasn't a top two seed winning MVP, and I understand that precedent has been broken a bit in recent years, with Russ winning as a sixth seed Yokich winning as a four seed, but it certainly still matters a lot. And Philly is twenty to five when he plays, they are one and four when he doesn't. They are a plus thirteen points for an unpossession team when he is on the floor just blowing people out.

And yeah, they've had an easy schedule, but I mean again, versus last year when he was MVP, he's scoring more, shooting better, playmaking better, rebounding better, and defending better on a better team after losing James Harden and a lot of those differences are marginal, but they amount to something that's pretty significant and crazy impressive coming from the place that he was as a regular season player last year. Now, how does this all scale the postseason? That is going

to be a different question. But I do feel better about him in a playoff setting as this version of himself. If he can maintain this jump shooting, if he can maintain this playmaking, Those along with health have been the biggest things that have let him down in the playoffs, and I think he's the best that we've ever seen him in at least actually all three of those categories.

I mean, he's been very healthy this year. I don't know if I'm ever going to expect him to totally hold up throughout a multiple series playoff run, but he's playing unbelievable basketball. Luca is unreal, And the one thing that I do want to shout out for him is that if he sustains being a thirty eight percent plus

three point shooter, he is effectively an unstoppable basketball player. Because the one frustration I've ever had with Luca is man, he is basically unstoppable getting into the lane right. His change in pace is so phenomenal. He is so big and strong in such an unbelievable touch shot maker, and then just a generational passer. This skit passes the lobs. When he hits that painted area, you're basically guaranteed a good shot.

Like Jokic took the leap from all NBA guy to oh wow, this is the best offensive center ever at twenty five years old. Lebron didn't lead a top eight team offense until year six. Steph took the leap at

twenty five twenty six. Right, Luca is twenty four and has been doing these things night in, night out for five years, just waltzing into efficient thirty point triple doubles, leading top five offenses with mess supporting pasts, and he's just taken little leaps year after year after year and I feel like sometimes people are just sort of numb to what he does because we've gotten used to this standard of him as a top five player.

I know I said this at the start of the year, and I think it's been a mutually beneficial move for both teams. I really do think the seventy six ers have benefited from being without James Harden. They were twenty seventh in pace last year, their thirteenth in pace this year. I still do worry about the transition defense little bit, but I think playing faster and more up tempo and not having a as big a defensive liability as a guy like Harden out there has been big for Philly.

But it has been a beat. And it's absurd. You mentioned the mid range shooting numbers cars and he's shooting fifty one percent among players that are attempting at least three field goals from the mid range area. He's second in field goal percentage, only behind Chris Middleton. That's absurd. I mean, it's just unstoppable. And you have a guy that is this physically imposing, this strong. When he gets on the low block, he's sixty eight and a half

percent in the restricted area. Okay, that's an awesome shot, no matter who's on him because he's so physically imposing. Okay, so well, I got to play off of him. Damn.

I hope that Embiid can continue this because he is playing like the best player in the world on both ends of the floor. That's going to be the big test. But right now he is unequivocally my MVP.

for them has been out for a while. Although Dallas fans are sick and tired of Maxi, it seems like but the like when it comes to like turning that roster from what looked like an absolute dumpster a dumpster fire last year into a group of guys who's really bought in and competing there. Before last night, they were thirteenth in defense in their previous fifteen games, which with

that group is super impressive. That like, like every given every night, it's different lineups and different rotations that he's making work. That said, everything we know about NBA history tells us like it's the better player on the better team that typically ends up getting an MVP. So I think I think it's far more likely that Joel Embiid wins the MVP. I just think Luca is a more deserving you know, just purely from the standpoint of doing

more with less. That said, we're splitting hairs. I'm not trying to pick on any individual player. I want to dive into the individual topics a little bit deeper, or the individual players a little bit deeper though from the same point of ranking them in the league. So I think, obviously, when it comes to the older guys, the guys like Steph. I don't want to like write him off entirely, because obviously there is uh, there's potential for this the Warriors to make a train for him to be right back

in that spot next year. So I want to remove him from this discussion for a second. I just want to look at four guys. I want to look at Jokic, Luca, Joel, Embiid Jannis. I want each of you guys to rank each of the four of them. If you had to start a playoff run tomorrow with a league average roster at every other position, how would you rank them?

at the very least that we've ever seen. It's a combination of overwhelming strength, unbelievable touch, shot making with all time great passing, his versatility, everything that we've talked about. He's pretty clearly number one for me, Now it gets really tough. I think that Jannis has a limitation as a half court shot creator that we have seen bite

him before. But I do think when you pair him with a guy like Dame who can cover up for that a bit, then you get lots of overwhelmingly all time great value.

we have win. Embiid's jump shot does fail him when he is relying a bit on foul drifting and those calls that are free throws in the regular season turned into wasted possessions in the playoffs because we haven't seen it from him. I'm gonna give the edge to Yannis at two, and I actually think I'm going Luca at three. And there's an argument for Luca two as well, because he is one of the greatest playoff performers offensively that

we have ever seen. I mean, he just waltzes into I think it's like thirty three, eight and nine on damn good efficiency again. You just can't take it away. And I do have some questions about if you're scaling to a title team, right, does he need to be willing to do more away from the ball, if it's curling off of screens and whatnot. We've just seen the President that these crazy ball dominant offenses where you're super reliant on one player overly helio centric, you tend not

to win a title that game. But if you're giving me average everywhere else, I kind of think that's when Luca's value is at its greatest, because he can't carry you every single possession, and he can do so so much that almost makes me want to put him too, But I'm gonna give respect to Giannis what we have seen from him in the twenty one and twenty two playoff runs, that two way value, that level of physical force, and.

my top two for sure. I'm going Jokic one, Luca two, and then dude, I really wonder if I want to go Gianis three. With his offensive limitations, I mean, a league average roster, He's such a weapon defensively, He's so physically imposing. But I'm scarred and considering how like by that that Heat series last year, how much he crumbled, how much he needed Middleton and Holiday in those late moments against Miami, and I know that he missed two games in that series. Damn. But I also hate watching

Gianni's play too. I guess watching Oh.

hands at the end of a game. For me, Man, I can't do that to my own team.

them scale, you know. Like, by the way, it's actually an interesting follow up to our conversation about Kevin Durant because like he's all in on the guys that are fun to watch, And this is kind of a good example of the fact that like sometimes ugly wins, the league average other four players on the court to me is a huge, you know variable here because of the fact that, like with Giannis, the half court shot creation piece has been the issue in most of their playoff eliminations,

and the one time they cracked through was that wide open twenty twenty one year where it's like you get through KD but injury decimated, you get through like you get through Trey Young and then you get through a lesser version of Devin Booker and Chris Paul again not diminishing the accomplishment. Bona fide champion. And I still have Giannis as the second best player in the league overall because he does play with good shot creators and that allows him to focus his energy on these other things,

and he's so profoundly impactful there. He's the second best basketball player in the world in my opinion. And by the way, the vast majority of great teams in the league will put your superstar next to another really good shot creator who's not just a league average guy. So that's that's the important context. But if I had to rank him, I think it's clearly Yokis one and embiid four, and it's just either Giannis or Luca at the two

and the three, I think the league average player. I want Luca at number two just because I think in that half court battle, he's just going to be able

to generate higher quality shots than Jannis can. I've seen Luca to understand, like little things like, oh, I'm gonna pull Yannis into the action so that he can't be in helpside wrecking everything he like, Just little things like that that are you can diminish the impact of an athlete easier than you can diminish the impact of a shot creator, in my opinion, and so I would lean Luca in terms of the league average supporting cast aver.

That was a fun little exercise, a little random thing for us to do, all right, two quick ones before we get out of here.

Lakers more. A lot of this has to do with their top two stars. I just believe in Lebron and Ad a little more than the Warriors top two guys. Lebron twenty five, eight and seven still is probably one of the handful of guys five to ten. You know, we exclude Steph Curry and Lebron James from this conversation for our last thought exercise. Lebron and Steph are definitely

on my short list of guys in that conversation. But I think the Lakers title hopes are gonna come down to a few things again, the move they make at the deadline, the performance of their top two guys, the consistent, reliable night to night effort, and how Darvin Ham utilizes this lineup. I think Darvin Ham and how he utilizes this lineup is going to be one of the.

whatever that is. As Carson has harped on an our show throughout this season, this is the best bench of the Stephan career era. It is phenomenal, b pod TJ D. Moody, kaminga the performance of those guys. But Golden State is

still undersized and they have physical disadvantages. And I think barring an offensive showcase from Golden State what I mean by that in the playoffs, Steph on fire, Clay not missing anything, Andrew Wiggins dominating, attacking closeouts, making every shot, the bench play in their ass off barring net, I just think that they fall to the Nuggets, to the Timberwolves, to the Lakers. I just don't think that they can overcome the physical disadvantages that they have with those teams.

So we're gonna have to wait and see with the trade deadline. But it's gonna take a lot for me to catapult the Warriors over the Lakers. Even though these teams have been trending in different directions.

to see tjd get in more minutes. I thought he was maybe the best value picking the drafts, and he has lived up to that hype, coaminga coming into his own, really making the most of his athletic advantages. Like that stuff is all really fun, but it is kind of what we were talking about with the thunder, Like you don't want to be leaning on a bunch of young guys if you're trying to contend. And sure Draymalond will get back and maybe Andrew Wiggins becomes twenty twenty two

Andrew Wiggins again, I don't know. He's been trending upwards, but not from a very good place whatsoever. I just think the biggest key factor is exactly what you laid out, Logan. It is the two elite, superstar level basketball players. And that's the one thing when we had our son's conversation that I don't want to overly diminish, like I think that's a crazy flawed basketball team, really really flawed. But having Devin Booker and Kevin Durant is terrifying. That got

them two wins against the Denver Nuggets when they had an inferior supporting cast, because there were two games where they're just like, hey, is it can cool if we combine for eighty points per game and I'll play making at a high level and making seventy jumpers. Yeah, like that can happen at any time.

up better against the other contenders. As we've talked about, that's important this year, and I think it's important that they have a side of the ball where they clearly excel, like this is the case for the Timberwolves as well. They're a dominant defense. And no, they're not a great half court offense. They don't have overwhelming offensive skill. They don't have like that Tier one offensive creator, and that does worry me when you're talking about winning a title.

But they are really physical, they grind it out, they have a couple of really good shot creators, and then when you pair that with an elite, elite defense, that makes you hard to beat. I absolutely think that the engaged Lakers will dominate defensively, and then they can lean on their stars, especially one guy named Lebron James for clutch offense. And when Ad is aggressive there, when Austin Reeves is playing well, that's still a pretty good formula.

So I love the Warriors' depth, but to me, until they make a move if it is getting lowry market and like to me, it has to be a guy who's gonna bring real size in the front court in real offensive pop. He's my favorite just because he's such an awesome fit in their system. I think he's a better basketball player than a guy like Siakam, and he's an awesome value contract like that could take them up a tier, But right now I view them more as like a really tough first round matchup who can maybe

win a series. They've got a bunch of scrappy dudes who are playing hard, and then they have Steph Curry that is always going to make them a team that has some upside, but they're too limited right now. I see a clearer path for the Lakers.

of the rotation. As Logan was hinting at, like this starting lineup that they're running out there is legitimately one of the most bizarre lineup constructions they've ever seen, because it's like it literally you would think it was the Lakers from a year and a half ago when they had no good players and they were trying to figure out how to put out there. But it's like, no, they're just straight up putting two or three of their top five players on the bench to start games just

for coops and giggles, you know what I mean. But like the Lakers are actually this is one of the biggest reasons why I'm still pretty high on them, despite the lineup imbalances and the form use of resources and the inconsistent effort. They are twelfth and a half court offense this year in eighth and half court defense, and like, I still feel like they're slow down bully ball attack on both ends of the floor is a really, really scary prospect for a lot of teams in the league.

Pretty much everybody but Denver in my opinion, in the West, and then everybody but Boston in the East. That said, like, there's a lot that they have to get to solve to get to that point. The Warriors are sixteenth and a half court offense and twentieth and half court defense. And then, to put it simply, the Lakers have two guys playing at a superstar level and the Warriors have won. And like last year, you could make the case that Lebron was playing at something other than a superstar level,

especially in the postseason when he was injured. But this year, he's literally like he's having one of the most efficient scoring seasons of his career. His jump shot is is consistently being made at a higher level. He's basically one point one points per shot, which is like twenty percent

higher than it was last year. Anthony Davis has started taking and making jumpshots more frequently now He's having by far the best post up season of his career, and I feel like he could even go up a level because he's still missing so many bunnies around the rim. Like I think the Lakers are clearly better positioned. That said, the both of these teams, in my opinion, have to hit their mid season trade. We won't do it today, but we could argue about which type of player the

Warriors get. But if they make a move and they upgrade that four spot into some sort of star level player. You guys can, like referring to the fans of the league, feel free to write him off if you want. I feel like that's a really bad idea when you've got Steph Curry and Raymond Green and Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins on that team. One thing to keep an eye on with the Warriors that I think could work to their detriment in terms of contending this year is Kamingus

hoop in his ass off. And there's a version of this where they're like, we don't want to trade Kminga because he's going to be too good, And I think that would be a gigantic mistake simply from the state point of like, if you think Kaminga is the guy, Garrett is Steph, because you're not winning the title this year with this roster, and so if your goal is to develop Kaminga for the future, Steph's thirty five, He's got two or three years left of being one of

the top six or seven players in the league. So like you either, I would guarantee that Steph doesn't want to be a part of a team that's more interested in developing a young prospect for the future. Than to than to contend for a championship. And so one of the things that works for the Lakers benefit is like you bet you're asked, they're gonna make a trade and they're gonna do something to try to upgrade this roster

because they sense the urgency. And I think there actually is some conflict within the Warriors organization about which direction to go, which could be something that kind of holds them, makes them a little bit more reticent to make a move.

And for the record, like Johnathan Aminga is gonna be really good, Yea, My question would be, like you better be damn sure he's gonna be a superstar if you're going to to to to not go after it with this group, and like again, and when you one of the biggest issues for in my opinion, with the Warriors is that as Andrew Wiggins has declined, the slotting of the team has gotten all screwed up, and now everybody's trying to fill a role that's above their pay grade.

And so literally, if Andrew Wiggins isn't going to get it together and become that guy again, if you can bring that guy in and then start to properly slot guys again, I think it could. I think they can still be a really dangerous team. Again, they have one of the best home court advantages in basketball, Steph Curry's. If we're ranking just purely playoff players, Steph is firmly in that top five still. In my opinion, I thought

I thought he was completely unguardable last year. It's like the Lakers won, but they never really figured out the Steph Curry problem, you know, so like it like they're again. Both of these teams I still think are within striking distance pending a trade. But I think as currently constructed,

the Lakers are very clearly the better basketball team. All Right, one last question before we get out here today, Guys, what's more likely to happen first, the Detroit Pistons winning a basketball game or the Chicago Bulls blowing up their roster and trading all their stars. We'll start with you, Carson, all.

Wizards are that bad, the Spurs are that bad. We've only seen Cad, Boion and Duran for three games together, all of them, and they've been legit competitive in all of those games. And Cad is hooping right now. And I made a YouTube video a few weeks ago about how he is just not the problem in Detroit. He was playing with nightmarish spacing. I think he is still clearly a star level shot creator. I think he's gonna

be awesome now. At times, he is reliant on tough shot making because he doesn't have like a crazy explosive first step. He's not a crazy vertical athlete around the rim who finishes super easily in traffic. But he's a big ball handler who's a really good shooter, who plays with good pace, has good feel. Last five games, he's thirty two and seven a night on sixty six percent

through shooting. Eventually, he's going to just win you a game and the other guys won't be able to mess it up like he could have just done it the other night. He got them pretty close. And I think, actually, here's my Bowl take ready. Over the next four games, now that they are healthy, they will beat either the Raptors or the Jazz. I think that they can do it.

I think that, of course they're still bad, but they're not the literally like on pace to be the worst team ever team that we have seen, because I think that they have unfortunately had a bad run with injuries. Now their morale is broken.

to be a red hot market. It's not like a lot of people are chopping at the bit to take on Lavin or de Rozan. At this very moment, I think that that's gonna go more down to the buzzer. So Detroit, I'm with you, You're gonna win a game before the Bulls trade one of their star guys.

to happen, guys, Hell might have to freeze over. But there's some other things bad coaching decisions and rotations. For a while, they weren't playing Jade and Ivy. I also think that's a big fundamental misstep in terms of if Ivy isn't a complimentary two guard that you want alongside Cad. I think it's kind of foolish to not play him and up his trade value. Monty also was force feeding Killian Hayes alongside Cad Cunningham the end of the game

the other night. Like you mentioned Carson, he puts in Alec Burks and he kind of throws the game away for the Pistons. And also, there's just supremely bad and

non NBA caliber players down this roster, James Wise and Marvin Bagley, Killian Hayes should be in China, And you know, you just have to feel bad for Kid and all this guys. I looked at these numbers like kind of couldn't believe them. They're eleven point four points per one hundred possessions better with Kid cunning him on the floor A team this man, they're eleven point four points per

one hundred possessions better. They have an offensive rating of one oh eight point three with Kate and an offensive rating of one oh four point three without him. Defensively, they have a one to eighteen point seven defensive rating with Kate and one twenty six point one without him. I mean, good lord, please just give Kid spacing, give

him some complimentary players, and they'll figure it out. Like I think Kate is a stud I think he's a star, Like U Carson, I think he's taking a lot of a brunt for these losses, and eventually Detroit will rise out of this. I'm hoping that it is at home two days from now against the Raptors. I'm hoping they can exercise these demons. Man.

wants to be the team that finally loses. That said, like Carson, you hit the nail on the head, Like as much as a certainty as it feels that the Bulls will make deals, it's just the best way to do that is to get as many suitors involved as possible, which always is closer to the deadline. So that just feels like something that happens in February. And then as far as the Pistons go, like, they do have enough talent to win a handful of NBA games over the

course of a couple of months. So like, I think they'll win a few times before the Bulls make some sort of trade. Kay Cunningham, I one hundred percent agree with you, guys. I think he's a legitimate star in the making. But when you combine that with boy and Magdanovich as just a secondary creator and a guy who can provide weak side spacing, the overall athleticism in the group, now that Jade and Ivy's playing more, you legitimately they they have enough to get one. It's just that it's

that simple to me. And then lastly, I'll just add competitive pride in here. Like I see the demeanor from Caid after these games. He wants one. He's not a loser. These guys aren't losers. They're just losing. And so there that said, there are some guys down the roster, as you guys, as Logan so eloquently put earlier, there are some guys down the roster that have basketball character that I'm not particularly fond of. But I think they have enough to get it done. And I think they will

get one before we get to February. All right, guys, that is all we have for today, Nerd Sash.

I just did a video on lowry marketing. Logan mentioned he's doing one on the Timberwolves, so you can find some of that stuff as well at the nerd Sash YouTube page.

little bit of a break. We're gonna take Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday off for the holiday, but I'm gonna record a mailbag episode today that they're gonna be releasing in chunks over the weekend, so there'll be plenty of content coming out over the course of the next few days. And then we're just gonna get right back into the grind starting in January. Lots and lots of game breakdowns, deep dives. We're gonna have the Nerd Sash guys on a couple

times a month as always. I appreciate you guys. We will see you tomorrow.