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You're at the volume. Have you Friday? Everybody?
Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week so far. As we head into this jam packed NBA weekend, we have a very special show today. The guys from nerd Sets, Logan and Carson are coming on. We're gonna talk about all of the big time scenarios that are
taking place over the next few days. We have, first of all, our contender lists, and Logan and Carson released their contender lists on their show and also on Instagram the other day and I was looking at it and both of them have the Phoenix Suns.
Completely off their list. So we're gonna debate that.
Talk about a couple other things on their list, and that they're gonna come at me about things that they disagree about with my list. Also, after that, we're gonna talk about the top of the Eastern Conference in light of the Yannis injury. Are the Celtics just gonna kill everybody or is there a threat in there. We're gonna talk about that. After that, we're gonna look at the bottom of the Western Conference because the play in tournament
can go in a million different directions. This weekend we're gonna dig into some scenarios and what we expect to see there. And then lastly, today we have one playoff series that is set in stone. Even the Eastern Conference is completely up in flux right now, but in the Western Conference, we are going to get the rematch of the rematch of Clippers versus MAVs, and we're gonna just do a full blown series preview, diving into that series tactically on both ends of the floor, and we will
end that segment with us making our predictions. So without any further ado, Carson and Logan, I was shocked when I put my list together and I had Phoenix at five, mainly just because they have two of the top fifteen players in the league on their roster, and a center that can bang bodies with Nicole Jokic and give him some issues. And a ton of off ball talent, including
Bradley Beale that can help space teams out. I think they're the best driving kick team in the league, and so I'm higher on them than you guys, And I was stunned to see the teams like, let's just say the Miami Heat if we're above them, and some other examples around the league. So you guys have an opportunity now to defend yourselves, and we'll start with you, Carson. Why are the Phoenix Suns not a top ten contender for you?
Specifically on the question of the Heat. That is just a tough one, because I do think that the Suns are better than Miami. I just kind of felt like, if I leave the Heat entirely off of this top ten list, just considering how they have defied their regular season results and how proven their playoff formula of elite defense, Jimmy somehow elevating to this legit offensive number one is and I like their collection of wings and secondary creators
more than last year. I felt like putting them in the ten spot was sort of a happy medium between the team they've looked like this regular season and the team that we have seen them capable of ascending to, even though I think they were very fortunate in various respects in terms of last year's playoff run. But on the question of the Suns, I was surprised to see that you have them all the way up at five.
I think that they.
Belong right around that ten to eleven twelve range. They absolutely do scare me because they have Kevin Durant and Devin Booker and just the pull up shot making, the offensive skill that those guys are capable of putting forth as one of the best scoring duos that we have seen in the history of this league like that is absolutely terrifying, and we saw it against the Nuggets last year.
They were the team that was able to steal two games away just because those two would especially book were so unconscious, they were so absurdly good as pull up shooters that they were able to generrate a sort of offensive success that even though the Nuggets were still getting there.
Is it just outweighed that. But when I look at the scope of the West this year, I do think there's a lot of really strong teams, and I think there's a decent amount of teams that are a bit more complete at Phoenix, And if we sort of break them into different categories, if I compare them to like these skill based teams, where we have these huge, jumbo sized teams out West that are probably gonna defend at a really high level and have these big physical advantages,
and then we have the teams like the Thunder and the Clippers, where the Thunder are obviously uniquely small and slight, but the Clippers, although they play a traditional five like the Suns do, these are skill based teams based on their perimeter shows. And in both the Clippers and Suns cases, it's not about like we have these super high end athletes who are gonna consistently generate this rim pressure. It's about the skilled shotmaking and shot creation of their wings.
And I just think we have seen a much higher ceiling from the Clippers. I do think they have a different level of physicality, just when you think about how Kawhi alone can impose himself in those environments. Even though they've been bad defensively for two months, they have shown a higher defensive ceiling, and I like their perimeter talent there and Zubots on the interior more and I think they have the best player in that series. So I
like La Moore. I know you agree with that one, and I'm not as high on La as you are, Okay, See, I just think is so much more proven defensively. They're so athletic on the perimeter, they're so pesky, they're so consistently dialed in there. Chet obviously his slightness is an issue, and we saw Nirk get his thirty boards against him because there's just such a massive strength advantage there. But
I still think Chet's an elite pure rimper. And then I like the formula that Okse has of multiple dudes who are just so hard to stay in front of. I think they're the best driving kick team in the league just because of the consistent penetration that you get from Jadab and Shay, and they have I would say, a better three point shooting cast overall, but also a higher volume three point shooting cast, So I think there's a higher ceiling there. And then I prefer the Lakers.
I think that their formula of two top ten guys with the secondary shot creation we've seen with Ruey and the starting five. They're huge. Their offense has been really good, and I think they clearly have a higher defensive ceiling if Vanda is healthy. And I just like how their two top ten players compliment each other. Eighty dominates defensively, Lebron dominates offensively. They both impose themselves physically, the two Wolves,
I just think that defense is so great. So ultimately it comes down to the fact that a lot of these teams have had their moments, They've had their stretches where you're like, boy, they look like Juggernauts, the Clippers when they went twenty six and six, the Lakers, even if it's been in shorter spurts, I would argue mostly post All Star breaking in the Ncason Tournament, the Tea, Wolves, the Thunder, these teams have just consistently won a whole
bunch of games. Phoenix hasn't really had that stretch to me, and I think that they're going to be pretty average defensively, and they're going to ask their stars to take on a significant burden there just because of the nature of
their roster composition. I think although Book and Kadie are so unbelievable as shot makers, and although they do have good complimentary off ball pieces, there's a reason this team is still eleventh in offensive rating, and it's because they don't really have that ability to just break open a crazy ceiling because of the lack of high end rim pressure for any of their stars and because of the fact that they aren't a high volume three point shooting team.
So it may be the reality that these dudes can sit there and make fifty percent of their mid range pull up jumpers over you, night after night, and that's good offense, but it's not great offense in the same way that some of these other teams would more physical advantages than higher shooter ceilings are. I don't love the depth here, and this team has just been so disastrous in fourth quarters on both sides of the ball. I think their offensive process has been bad. They've been sloppy,
they've been super turnover prone. So the Suns are still an uncomfortable first round draw to me, absolutely, but I don't view them as being in that contender tier because it's kind of like with their defensive limitations, with the fact that they haven't reached the offensive peaks that some of these other teams have with the fact that they aren't the most physically imposing, it's tough for me to see them stringing together like series after series after series.
I think Carson hit on a few key points that I really agree with. On the Miami Phoenix point when he's talking about these teams underperforming in the regular season, I do think Miami just their track record, they've shown us that they can just turn around and flip a switch and be a completely different team in the playoffs, when I don't really see that with Phoenix. I think it's they've shown me too many red flags in the regular season. And I also think it's a fundamental roster
construction issue. I think you're expecting role players to play above their means when I also don't love their depth, and then I think you're expecting stars to fill roles that they just aren't equipped to phill, where like Carson said, you're gonna ask these guys to go above and beyond defensively and on the glass and just feel things that
they're not really equipped to do. The real issue that I have with Phoenix is their late game offense in just late game process in general, like they have been horrid in fourth quarters. They have been horrid in the clutch. They are thirtieth and fourth quarter offensive rating this season one oh four point one. They're twenty second in fourth quarter defensive rating. They have the worst net rating in the fourth quarter of any team in the NBA, and
they're twenty ninth in turnover percentage in the clutch. They're twenty third in offense, they're fourteenth in defense in the clutch. They're nineteenth and net rating in the clutch, And that to me is the real stain for Phoenix personnel wise. You guys are right like big NRK KD Beal book These are guys that can really swing a series and
swing games, but they just haven't shown it enough to me. Like, I'm just I'm really scarred by all the late game collapses that I've seen with Phoenix where it's I don't know, man, Eric Gordon trying to push the ball up in transition and you know, Grayson Allen trying to do too much, and I am screaming at my television going, hey, guys,
can we get Devin Booker a touch? Like I can't remember what game it was a couple of weeks ago, but it's like the final three minutes, Devin Booker doesn't touch the ball on offense in the fourth quarter, and I don't know there's there's That's my biggest issue is there's not like a hierarchy to this team where the role players really complement the team. And then yeah, in late game scenarios, it's guys trying to do too much.
It's them settling for mid range jumpers. Like the Suns just haven't shown it to me enough this season to where I can believe in them and I trust that this is the Suns team that we're gonna get. We're in fourth quarters, they play below their means, we're in the clutch, they perform like this team. I think there's
a higher ceiling they can reach. But like I really just I think they've shown us who they are too many times in this regular season, and I don't think this is a switch issue where they can just effort and energy wise and just lock in. I think there's way more issues under the surface.
I agree with a lot of what you guys are saying. They've been a jeckal and Hyde team. They are the definition of a team that like when they play basketball the right way, offensively like advantage creation basketball, where their stars just look to get the defense in rotation and then they play drive and kick. They can be devastating.
They've had stretches of games they just recently played like a five or six straight Top ten defenses and had like a seventy percent assist percentage in those games, and they lit them all up. But then they'll lose sight of that sometimes and they'll get sloppy. They they struggle to handle ball pressure and apps and things along those lines.
They're guys that like to prefer there are guys that prefer to work in the action when they're comfortable, and then as soon as teams really kind of again, like when you trap a team or double team a player, it's a good thing typically, and Phoenix is really good at capitalizing on that. The reason why I think they're a better driving kick team than Oklahoma City is literally because of the fact that they're off bubble.
They don't have like a Josh.
Giddy or Elude Dort and loud Dort shot the ball really well this year, but he can get a little tunnel vision when he's driving closeouts, and obviously Giddy can is a guy that you typically are leaving open when I try to think of the Suns within the scope of their best five players, which in my opinion, Suns fans disagree about this. Some of them think it should be Royce O'Neil. I personally think it should be Grayson Allen.
But when they actually have you know, Booker, Bal Durant, Allen, and Nurkic out there, you're closing out hard basically at everybody except for Nurkic. And Nurkic is such a connective piece in terms of his ability to make reads when he's left open and to quickly turn in pivot into dribble, handoffs and stuff. When they play the right way, they can be very good. That Jekyl and Hyde piece is
what I think gets people off of them. I agree as well as it pertains to the physicality, Like Carson mentioned, like Phoenix has a tendency to get punched in the mouth and then struggle, But then I've also seen them rise to the physical challenge of Denver a few times too, and so like it comes to the point of that which team are they? Are they the high end version or are they the low end version. One of the things that I think people have to keep in mind.
Is like, for instance, in the Clippers game, Nurkic didn't play. Obviously, that's not an excuse to completely wipe that performance away, But more often than not this year, when they've been
down guys is when they've looked bad. As a matter of fact, among all five man lineups in the NBA this year that played at least four hundred minutes, the Durant Beale, Nurkic, Booker Allen lineup has been the fourth best in the entire league, outscoring teams by ten point three points per one hundred possessions and a one to twenty four offensive rating, which is the second best in the league to the classic starting five for Denver, which, by the way, a one to twenty six offensive This season,
Lordship outscoring teams by fourteen points per one hundred possessions. So Denver just looking like a complete and total jugger not But again the case the case there is like they're better than they've looked because when they're healthy, they tend to play a certain style and they've been better in those situations. They also have shown really good upside to me in some specific matchups, to me, getting out
of the Western Conference, A prerequisite. A prerequisite was Denver, and I almost going into about a week and a half ago, I had Phoenix above Dallas and will kind of flip that dynamic for me was seeing Dallas hold up better physically in some tougher matchups, but like to me, that ability of Nurkic to just kind of make things a little tougher on Jokic, especially in the second Denver game. I thought Kevin Durant was unbelievable defense in that game.
And so when Nurkic is bodying Jokic and kd is bringing that kind of back line length that we know can be so devastating, they provide a little bit of a tougher matchup. The other thing, too, Denver is a high drop and tag team for the most part, So what that means is they are pretty consistently leaving someone open on defense, and Phoenix is the type of team that can capitalize that on that in a way that
some other teams can't. Like, they're a team that like when they actually handle pressure well and get rid of the ball to the right spots, they're really difficult to guard. And so the case again, I agree with you I have the Clippers above them, I have Dallas above them. But to me, the reason why I have them as high as I do is they match up well with Denver.
And it really is that simple in my opinion, all of these other teams, like as good as Dallas is, Jokic is gonna eat their front line alive, you know what I mean in a seven gamer, right, Like as good as the Lakers are, Jamal Murray's gonna eat their best court alive. Right, as good as the Clippers are, they've consistently struggled with Denver and just their ability to pick them apart on offense.
So, like I.
Understand where you guys are coming from. I just think pure talent matchup advantages in the Western Conference. Kind of sifting through some of their good and bad this year, I still view them as a significant and substantial threat.
All right, So I got one.
More quick phone to pick with each of you guys, and we'll just go one on one for each of these real quick, and then I'll let you guys go after my list a little bit. So, Carson, you had the Timberwolves at five.
If I remember correctly, I think I had them at four. Yeah, you had them way up.
I was watching once again the Denver Minnesota game last night two nights ago, and I did a pretty extensive film session on it, and like, I just remain convinced that the Timberwolves are just not going to be able to score consistently when they get into these situations. And there are enough guys in their lineups that you can pick on on the defensive end of the floor that you can find a way to score, which is why Minnesota's clutch time defense has been so bad. I'm just
not very high on the Timberwolves. What's your where are you getting your optimism from?
So?
I think the Timberwolves are like maybe the most interesting team headed into the playoffs because they sort of contradict the various precedents that we have for successful playoff teams. The first box that it feels like you pretty much always have to check if you want to make a deep playoff run is having a Tier one superstar guy. And I love Amp, but he's just not at that level yet. He's not consistent enough as a playmaker, he's
not consistent enough as a pull up shooter. He's just going to continue to refine his game and he will ascend to that level, but he's not there yet. And along with that, you have to have a good offense, and you have to have a good half court offense.
And that's a reason that I have been consistently out on a team like the Grizzlies in recent years because they just haven't produced in the half court in the regular season, and then you get into the playoff environments and you see that their offensive skill level and half court creation isn't quite up to the level of these other teams that maybe they're beating in the regular season.
Some of the reasons I feel differently about Minnesota. Number one, I don't think that they have then enough offensive pop to beat Denver, like I definitely wouldn't pick it. I also think they make Denver more uncomfortable and defend them significantly better than anybody else. And so that alone is just a punch that nobody else can throw because it's so hard trying to figure out how do you beat Denver. Is it you just go nuclear offensively or you slow
them down offensively enough? Nobody is taking away Denver being a damn good offense, But is it just we take away seven eight percent of their production? And then we can grind out enough to outpace that. And that's where I kind of view the MAVs as the best offensive threat because Luke and Kyrie are going nuclear that shot creation. To me, the ceiling there exceeds what the Suns would have in a similar mold. And then I do think Dallas has been defending better and matches up better physically.
And then the t Wolves are sort of the alternative where it's just we grind this series down and make it ugly and defend them better than anybody else. And I do think that they're a pretty exceptional team defensively. The gap between them and the number two defense in the league right now in terms of defensive rating is the biggest that we have seen in thirty years and entirely different NBA. Yeah, but the last team who had that big a margin was the ninety four Knicks, who
were a mediocre offense. They were sixteenth in offensive rating and they still made the finals just on the back of how great that defense was. So again, different leagues, but generally, that fundamental truth has always been the same. You have to produce offensively, and you have to do
it in the half court. I just wonder if Minnesota is so great defensively, and they're so brutal for anybody to play, and they're so physically overwhelming, like that's the thing they are going to win on the glass in these matchups. I think that defensively they really have an answer for anybody because they have such hounds at the
point of attack. They're so athletic there, they're so consistently dialed in and they're physical, and then you have the best rim protector in basketball still the best interior defender. I think at his physicality as the four when he's back out there, what he can do as a post defender, like, I think he's improved substantially defensively. So they do violate that principle that you have to produce offensively. But it's kind of like, who do I think is going to
score enough on them for that to matter? And it's probably Dallas because I don't know you can really take away what they're doing when Luca is on this level and Kyrie is on this level, and then it's the Nuggets everybody else. I think Minnesota grinds their offense to a halt by enough to where they don't need to produce at like the level that we know these other teams are capable of in their ceilings just because they've taken such a chunk out of their offensive productions.
Okay, I have one counter, and I'll give you a quick opportunity to counter that. I agree with you that their defense is a huge weapon, and I think it's going to keep every game close. M hm, But they suck in close games.
Sure, the clutch offense has been bad.
The clutch offense has been bad, and like that is my red flag, but I also don't want to just like overlook how this defense has made them such a consistently great team. And it feels very different to me in terms of, oh, this is a team that is winning a bunch of regular season games than Oka see because both these teams have playoff red flags. But Minnesota just checks more boxes, more experienced, way more physical, and
I think that defense as a problem really translates. But I don't disagree in my concern about the late game offense and the half court offense. However, I also think there will be games that, like they win comfortably just because you can't score on them. So that's kind of what I'm betting on. But I wouldn't be shocked if, say they drew the Lakers, if they lost that first
round series at all. Even the Suns, it's like if they go ice cold offensively, if Ant has a bad series, if Kat doesn't look like himself, like Minnesota could lose first round. I don't think the gaps are very big after Denver, but I believe in that defense. I think that defense translates, and I think they are going to suck to play.
There's a decent chance that we get Minnesota, that we get Minnesota versus the Lakers in round one. We'll talk about some of the scenarios when we get to the
play in bracket. But because the Timberwolves have the tiebreaker over the Thunder and they should both win out in theory, although the Timberwolves will have a tough game against the Suns, like, there's a good chance they end up at two, and if things break right for the Lakers tonight, they should be at the eight or the seven, which if they win that game, they would end up that seven seed facing off against Minnesota, and so that would be the
interesting thing is like I just imagine Lebron and Ad really really baiting Ant into his limitations as a playmaker. And then and then just like again that Anthony, that Anthony Edwards versus Anthony Davis matchup in terms of like just kind of shutting off the paint. And again like ad has always given Gobar issues too. That's gonna be an interesting series. I again, I want to be clear
to upfront before we move on to Logan. I think we're splitting hairs for most of these, like I have the I told you guys that I had the Timberwolves at nine and the Bucks at eight. But if Giannis misses the first round, there's like a really good chance they just don't make it out of the first round. And if that's the case, I'd move the Timberwolves up to eight, and I'd probably put the Sixers in at nine.
I don't think that there's much of a gap at all between the Timberwolves and the MAVs, Like it's an imperceptible gap to me, like Dallas, the Clippers, the Suns, the Lakers, the thunder the Timberwolves. To me, they're all like neck and neck, and so like you have them higher than I do. We're arguing about it, but it's not like we're that far apart in how much we perceive them as a threat. Logan, I have won for you, Carson, I think you had Miami at ten, correct?
Correct?
I had Miami at ten as well, just an obligatory I had them and the Warriors just kind of share that ten spot is like a like we respect you by the time a lifetime achievement. So and here's the thing. The thing with Miami for me, Jimmy's having a war season than he did last year. BAM's having a war season than he did last year. There's this perception, and it's understood, but there's this perception that the Heat like just come alive every postseason and go on a run.
And they've been really good. But there also was twenty twenty one when they went and just got swept. So like it like what ends up happening is, in my opinion, like they can expose somebody that is not a real championship contender, but they when they run into a truly great team, they tend to lose.
Who do they lose to?
In twenty twenty one the team that won the title, right they twenty twenty two they lost to that Celtics team that had a two to one lead in the finals, they lose to the Nuggets. Like to me, they're like basically like the bouncer at the club for the championship room, like you got to, you gotta. They're not good enough to actually beat any of those teams, but any team that runs into them that is fraudulent, they will expose.
And So while I look at them as a legitimate threat to like, you know, let's say Milwaukee ends up at two and Miami ends up at seven, Like, yeah, I viewed them as a threat, but I think putting them over some of the teams you have them.
Above, Logan, I struggle with.
Like seven is high and like Bams still can't make anything around the basket. Yeah, I get it, he's making a few more threes this year than he did last year. But like I just but yeah, I'm not I don't necessarily view Miami as a substantial threat this year. So Logan defends yourself, why is Miami up at number seven?
Miami to be just has such a high floor that I can bank on. And I want to be clear too, I think Bam is the biggest swing factor for the Heat once again this postseason. What Bam brings them offensively is going to determine their ceiling because it's ugly man like. And it's frustrating with Bam because he's such a talented, like athletic guy. But there's just possessions man in games to games where like, I just don't ever think BAM's gonna fully figure it out offensively where he's it'll be
early in the shot clock, man. And it's situational too, because some of these games it's without Jimmy or it's without heroes. So Bam already has this extra expected load on him. But you know, he's taking a post turnaround fade away with sixteen seconds on the shot clock, and it's like, Bam, that's not a good look. Is still
the biggest swing guy for Miami. Uh the reason they're so high For me, I know that I just said this about Phoenix, like their track record in the regular season, I'm not going to bank on it, but Miami has shown us that they are a different team when the playoffs come. And Jimmy Butler, despite him having another injury riddled season, another you know downtick in the regular season where he's not playing up the standard, Jimmy Butler is one of the greatest playoff risers of all time.
I believe his.
Career stats twenty six or twenty four and six, twenty six and four, one of those stat lines. And the list of the guys to do that as efficiently as Jimmy has done is like one of seven players. It's like Luca kd Lebron. The list is absurd. So my fundamental belief in Miami is that Jimmy Butler is going to turn into a playoff Jimmy again, and he's gonna do it. I just have this faith in Jimmy Butler that he is gonna rise. And I know he's thirty five, I know he's getting up there in age, but Jimmy
scares me. Jimmy scare There's me the way that a lot of other players in the playoff field don't, where he can exert this level of control on the game that other players can't, where he's getting into the teeth of the defense, he is setting up shots for his teammates. He is just grinding out these games and controlling them on both sides of the floor, where that's what he's
doing offensively and then defensively. This is one of the best duos point blank period on the planet on how Jimmy can take away the opposing team's best perimeter creator. And then Bam on the inside is just a havocreaker. So I get a really high baseline with those two guys. I get Eric Spolster in that dark voodoo magic that he puts on other NBA teams. And then the crux for why I have this team higher than other contenders, I just think Miami's better than they've been in years previous.
The Terry Rozier trade matters to me. Rosier may not be at his absolute apex here, but to me, he's a much better shot creator than they've had in years previous. You're asking Kyle Lowry and Gave Vincent to play well above their means. I think Duncan Robinson has gotten better. You know, hopefully Toddler hero is available, and I think they're better on the wings. Like I like Jovic, I really like Triple J. They're just a better team than
last year, and last year they went to the finals. Now, as we all know, it took a bunch of outlier stuff for Miami to handle business forty five percent in the first round against Milwaukee from deep forty three percent against Boston, and you know, Caleb Martin just went dumb, you know, I mean just turned into Andrew Tony for a series. It's the track record, man, it's I believe in Jimmy and Bam and Spoe. I think they're a better team than last year. I think they've got more
shock creation. I think their wing depth is better. I just think Miami's better than last year. And their defense gives me such a high base line and it's honestly the X factor for me. I think you're right, Jason. I don't view Miami as a real title contender. I don't think they can win the championship. But can they get to the Eastern Conference Final on some BS again?
Probably?
I mean they've done it before. Like That's the thing about Miami is that if you have one flaw, if you have that one, you know, uh chink in your armor, Spoe is gonna find it and he is gonna pick and he is gonna prod and he is gonna find that and he is gonna pick at it the entire series and decimate you with it. You cannot have a flaw where Miami is going to find it and expose it, and I do think some outlier things have to happen.
If Jimmy has a bad series, the heater cooked, if the Heat shoot poorly from behind the arc, the heater cooked, They're probably gonna get bounced in the first round. But Miami also has the advantage where again, if you have that one fatal flaw, I think Miami can expose it better than other teams. So that's where I fall down
on them. I don't really view Miami as a team that can win the finals, but I think any series they can beat a team, and I do think they can get back to the Eastern Conference Finals again this year. So look, guys, I'm just not getting burned again. Man, I'm not gonna the Miami Heater gonna go on a run again this year, and I'm not gonna be the jackass that left them off my top ten contenders list. So I just I'm never gonna count Miami and Jimmy out. Man. I believe in them too.
That's what the ten spot is for Logan, That's what I'm saying.
You had them at six, you don't have to go that far.
So so I think we more or less agree Logan, like I if I had different contender lists, which is like more likely to get out of the first round, Like the Heat would be pretty high on that list, because I agree with you, like they're just I have such a belief in Jimmy and Bam as kind of defensive weapons, and Eric Spolster is just schematic competence, is like literally better than everybody in the league by a sizable gap. Like there's so many different elements that make
them a threat. But like I would put them on the list of teams that will be in the playoffs this year that literally cannot win the title, like they they do not have the horses, even if like one or two of the higher level contenders got eliminated. I just don't I just don't think they.
Have the horses.
Like even let's say Denver and Boston both got knocked out by some sort of fluke, one of these other teams Dallas, the Clippers, the Suns, the Lakers, there, Thunder, the Bucks, one of them is gonna be a real team, you know, in the postseason, and they just wouldn't be able to get through that. And like to me, like they got to the finals into twenty twenty and got
fucking smacked. Like, yeah, there was a couple games there where Jimmy went crazy, but anytime the Lakers put their foot down on their necks, they had no chance and they got blown out in what three of the six games, I think, like the last year in the finals, they had a really good performance in Game two where they finally slowed down the Yokas Murray two man game hit a bunch of threes, but they kind of got handled and every other game, like even going back to the
year they lost to Boston, like they lost to Boston and they did some they dragged the series to seven, and yeah, Jimmy had a shot, but like if I remember correctly, the Celtics were up by like three possessions with like a minute and a half left, and it was just kind of classic Celtics that they toasted it off. And that also kind of felt like one of those series where like when the Celtics were bs saying the heat would get them, and then when the Celtics would engage,
they'd kind of control the game. So like, I never have ever really viewed Miami as a team that was actually within reach of the trophy, and like they're older now and Jimmy has gone down a tiny level from last year. I'm just not as high on them as everyone else is. So h before we move on to the next segment, I'm gonna we'll start with you, Carson.
What's your biggest gripe on my list?
I don't even know if I would call it a gripe. I think this is maybe the biggest difference that we have. So you have the Clippers at four. I had them at eight. But I have very mixed feelings about the Clippers because of the ceiling that we've seen, and like, for a time I thought they were second out West, So why are they still that high for you?
So I think that they were the textbook example of a team that dominated for a few months and then all their older players went into chill mode. Yeah, and like, and I think that's played a big role. They have some weaknesses. I don't think I think they more or less are as good as they're wreck shows in the sense that, like, I don't view them as in the Denver Boston tier, whereas like they literally won at a Denver Boston level for a couple of months, like they
they were at that level. The thing for me with the Clippers is their weakness to me is foot speed. Like beyond Terrence Man and Russell Westbrook, most of their guys are relatively slow. James Harden pretty slow, Kawhi Leonard is not a straight line speed guy. Paul George is a finesse pull up shot maker. Zubach is not particularly slow, so like I think are particularly fast. So I think that there are certain matchups where they'll struggle, like especially
teams that run a lot like they. That's why they can struggle so much in transition defense, That's why they struggle with defensive rebound like loose ball situations. They can struggle with speed. But one of their advantages is they're really strong at every position and they can get into this like physical bullyball type of game. And like, as long as Kawhi Leonard is healthy, he's still a top three or four playoff player.
In the league.
I like their matchup with Denver as well as having Zubach that can kind of sort of fight Jokics for position a little bit better than some of the other bigs. My thing with the Clippers is I more or less look at them as closer to the good version of them that we've seen this year as opposed to the
bad version. I also think there's a good chance that Tyleru just hunts on James Harden at some point along this route and goes a different route, maybe with Russell Westbrook, and just leans into just bully ball and tries to cause all sorts of problems there. Paul George two is playing some of the best basketball of his career right now at the right time. And so if Paul George keeps that level and Kawhi comes in and brings playoff Kawhi, I think you're dealing with two top ten ish, top
fifteen ish players there. So that's pretty much my point of optimism. Do you have any quick counters before we move on to Logan.
Well, I just think it really depends on which version you think you're getting, because there's no question that they were a top four team for more than a third of this season. My concerns are just number one, why's health at this stage in the season, Like he's been so healthy throughout this year, and I'm confident that they're just being conservative and careful, But like him missing six games,
playoff Kawhi is so unbelievably good. But if you get him for two games, like you did against the Suns last year, it doesn't matter. He can soundly outplay Kid, he soundly outplay Devin Booker. If you only get him for two games, it doesn't matter.
And you lose.
My other concern is just how bad Harden has been, because I think there was a stretch of this year where he was playing really well and he was taking advantage of I'm drawing your third best perimeter defender, and he was facilitating so well. And the facilitating hasn't really changed. It's just been awful shot making and the fact that he really can't pressure the rim in the same way and he can't finish around the rim in the same way, which is why he had so many clunkers in last
year's playoffs. Of course, his job was way harder, but there's still a volatility there and an inconsistency that concerns me. And his last fifteen he's like thirteen points per game on fifty one percent true shooting. So it's just tough because the vibes are so bad and they have been a disaster defensively for two plus months. I agree with you. To me, that is mostly Hey, our three best players are in their early in mid thirties. They're not going to lock in for this stretch of the season. But
I still don't love their ceiling there. I think they have the tools to be a good defensive team, not a great one, But I do look at the boxes they check. If Harden is playing well, three high end creators, if Kawi is out there and healthy, like a top
five playoff performer sort of guy. They do have the physicality element, but then also this dynamic three point shooting, Like that's why I really like this team for a stretch, But I just worry about all their worst tendencies kind of popping up right before the most important time of year.
You could not be more accurate about that last part. Like every every like canned cliche Clipper hate take has like mosen to the surface here down the stretch of the season. My one last bit of Clipper's optimism. They've got a lot of playoff risers. Kawhi is a playoff riser in my opinion, and then Terrence Man is a playoff riser in my opinion. His specific archetype, in my opinion,
is one of the most valuable playoff archetypes. It's like that Bruce Brown, like Alex Caruso, Terrence Man's like six five sixty six guard that's really strong and stocky, that just is an athletic wrecking ball on both ends of
the floor. And then even Russell Westbrook is one of those guys were like in the prime of his career, I feel like he was a big time playoff dropper because the ball was in his hands so much and he just was such a bad offensive player when he'd run into like real playoff defense that could expose his limitations.
But as in this phase of his career, I almost view as a playoff riser because all of a sudden, he goes from being like, you know, this kind of like helter skelter, inconsistent effort guy to like, now he's one of the best athletes on the floor, and he's playing his ass off and the ball's not in his hands that much and he's just doing all this dirty work stuff. So that's kind of another point of optimism for me. But again we're also splitting hairs when we're getting here.
You also have.
James Harden, though how many playoff risers does he offset, which is dropping.
We were at least too.
Paul George has his history as well, although I think he's better now than he used to be. All right, Logan, what's your biggest bone to pick with my list?
Oh no, we don't even have to we don't even have to go in a different direction here. I want to talk about the coach too, and we're gonna go more. We're gonna go more in depth later with Dallas. Jason, I think you hit on the key point on why on what LA needs to do to move up on
my list, because I had them really low. I think if he comes out with a couple of stinkers, I think you have to bench James Harden, and I think LA has the depth where they can where they have guys that can fill in for Harden, Terrence Man, they have Russell Westbrook, they have Norman Powell. Like Harden has stunk. Like I've read off these numbers over the past fifteen games,
he has been comically bad. Sixteen percent from the top of the key, thirty three percent on wing threes, thirty one percent in the corner, and the most alarming numbers me, he is shooting twenty seven percent on catch and shoot threes, twenty one percent on open threes in thirty one percent on wide open threes. If we get this James Harden in the playoffs, he is unplayable, Like he is going to well, I walked into this one. He's gonna sink
the Clippers boat. Fellas, he is gonna sink the Clippers boat. Like that's a real difference maker to me, because, like you said, Jason, Paul George's capital B ballin right now. This may be the best version of Paul George I've seen. I just trust Kawhi Leonard to do his thing. I have zero faith in James Harden, and so if he comes out of the gate, I think in game one or two. You know what, Jason, I didn't even think about that, Like James Harden's name brings such a you know,
and he just has such weight to it. You know, he's a former NBA MVP. I didn't even think about the Clippers potentially benching him, considering that they trade it. I think that's what you gotta do. I think that changes my outlook completely for LA, Like James Harden has been that bad, that's why they're that low on my lipt, Like he sours the Clippers for me. But if they turn to other guards who I trust and they have the depth to do it, that changes the clips for me.
But that's why the Clippers, I think they were nine on my list all about Harden. I just have so little faith in Harden turning it around or looking like any different version of a player. They need him to get buckets, and he's just he's not gonna pull his weight.
I think you have to try with Harden and then kind of make a read game to game because when he does have it going, he's a major plus on
the offensive end of the floor. But I agree with you like there, I've thought, like I've seen lineups in for instance, just the the game the other night against the the Suns where like you have Paul George, Terrence Man and Russell Westbrook all on the floor at the same time and they're switching, and like there was this possession where the Sons ran like three screening actions and then it ended up with the result was Terrence Man on Bradley Beal at the top of the key, and
you could tell Terrence Bradley Beal was like uh, and he just ended up throwing a random swing pass that just went out of bounce. And I'm like, I'm like okay, like this is this is the advantage is like they can they can bring layers of physicality that a lot of other teams can't can't bring. But I do think, I do think you have to try with James Harden. All Right, we spent way too long in that segment, so we're gonna move on
The volume.