Hoops Tonight X Nerd Sesh - Why Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown & Celtics will DOMINATE Eastern Conference playoffs, Why Luka Doncic’s Mavericks vs. Kawhi's Clippers is BEST first round playoff matchup

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terms and responsible gaming resources. Moving to the top of the Eastern Conference in light of the Yannis injury and apparently based on the MRI, it's been a solius injury, which is apparently a muscle in your cap that has nothing to do with the Achilles tendon.

the Achilles. So I would imagine they're going to take it somewhat cautiously with Yiannis if they do, because that's the other thing too, is this season has been kind of a lost cause anyway, and you have an opportunity, potentially through the mid level exception and the trademarket next year to try to make some sort of improvement to the roster and rebuild around Dame and Yannis, right, and if Yannis permanently hurts himself, or not permanently but substantially

hurts himself, that could throw a huge wrench into those plans. This is not a one year window. There is another year here where they could try to make this work. And so I think Yannis is there's a chance he misses the first round. If he does, I don't want to write off the Bucks. They're still a talented team with Dame and Brook Lopez anchoring things, and they have that capability. But they're gonna run into a good team in the first round. It's gonna be someone like Indiana

or Miami or or Philadelphia or somebody like that. And like all three of those teams, I think without Giannis, I think you have to pick them to beat Milwaukee. So with that being the case, and with the news that Julius Randall is not going to play for the New York Knicks, in this playoff run. Although the Knicks did do look really impressive without Julius Randall, still I'm

worried about their firepower up top. So I'm gonna pitch this to you first, Logan, is there any team in the East that is an actual substantial threat to Boston? And if the answer is yes, or I should say, even if it's.

terms of the force you can generate from it, Like I think it's like the It's like the best pal. I hope your honest is healthy. I do think it is really detrimental to Milwaukee's like championship hopes. Now, we have seen, as you mentioned, Jason Damian Lillard in games without Giannis, we have seen him, you know, go insane. You know, just I think he has to go super nova.

I have been so absurdly high on the Knicks, and if we had done our contender list, uh like later this week or closer to the playoffs, I think the Knicks might have still cracked my top ten even without Julius Randall. And it's because of Jalen Brunson. Now, I want to be clear about something. I think the next are better with Julius Randall. They're especially better with good Julius Randall. The size and physicality that you can have with that lineup, you know, with a Hartenstein or a

Robinson a Randall, and it's it's stupid, you know. And then the shooting that you have with these guys, with Evincenzo shooting the hell out of the pill this year in what Brunson brings, but it still is the Knicks for me. If I really had to get pushed to pick a team if I want to be clear, if Milwaukee isn't healthy with Giannis, I would take New York Brunson over this. I think last fifteen game stretch is thirty five, three and seven on like sixty and a

half percent true shooting. He's leading the league in points per game, and like just those physical advantages. If Jalen Brunson turns into Superman for a playoff run, which I know he is fully and totally capable of, like I fully trust Brunson is my number one in the playoffs. The way he's able to create shots for his teammates, the way this team just plays so cohesively. Man, I just love watching the Knicks play. If it's Brunson with a dho to Ananobi and Nnob explodes into the paint.

If it's Brunson getting into the teeth of the defense posting up, you know, he gets three defenders looking at him and he dumps off a you know, a cut to Devincenzo. Brunson is an awesome offensive engine, and so that's where my faith with New York starts. But it's everything around them. This team is gonna bring the physicality in pain defensively, they are gonna play hard all game long. They're gonna crash the glass.

the Knicks a little bit man like. And that's the thing, right, I say the Knicks are better with Julius Randall, but it's almost kind of a benefit a little bit, right, guys, where it's like, oh, we don't have to worry about Julius Randall like putting up to pull up mid range jumpers and clanging them all that. You know, it's a double edged sword where it's like I do think the Knicks are better with great Julius Randall, but they're way

worse with really bad Julius Randall. So with the og Nnobi trade with them getting boy on Bogdanovitch, right, I know he hasn't played great with the Knicks. He's still a great scorer where he could help swing a series with his perimeter shooting. The Knicks are a sneaky With Brunson playing at this level, I think the Knicks are a sneaky threat out East. With a hamperd Milwaukee team.

where he goes ice cold. He's super erratic, questionable playmaking, just sort of black hole tendencies Like I don't like Julius Randall, but when you are talking about beating the Celtics, it is a pushing your ceiling to the absolute peak that it can be. And there's no question to me that if the Knicks want to push their ceiling, they would need Julius Randall, just because you have to have a second legit shot creator, mismatch attacker. If his pull

up jumpers are falling. Julius Randold could give you an efficient twenty seven to ten and six in a series, And I just think you need that because I do love how the Knicks match up physically here even without Randall. Like with Randall, then that would be a problem. But still they're big in the front court. They just have absolute dogs with Og on the floor. They have a defensive rating of one hundred in the year twenty twenty four. It is absurd, and they're eighteen and three when he plays.

I love the supporting cast, I love the death the spot up shooting is so much better than last year. And if Jalen Brunson plays like he has been over these last fifteen games, then they probably would be the choice. But I just think that sort of singular load on him against a defense of Boston's caliber isn't sustainable. And that's not a bruns And thing. Like I love Brunson, I think because of his variety as a shot maker, because of how he dominates the paint in the mid range,

because of his physicality, like he scales very well. But you're telling me this guy alone has to deal with a full series of Derek White and Drew Holliday and Jalen Brown and whatever elite physical, strong perimeter defender they want to throw at him, and he has no other on ball threats. Really, I just think that that's too much, that's too much to put on him. So that's why they are my second choice, because I do still like

a lot of the elements of the formula. Philly to me is the team though that has the ceiling, because I feel like, if you are going to beat Boston, a pretty good box to check. Maybe the key box is just having an unstoppable force on the floor, like having the guy who is just by head and shoulders the best player out there. It's the rationale for picking

Yo Kitchen the Nuggets. Denver's a really really good basketball team, better than Philly overall, but they also just have like by far, the best player on the floor, and that's why I believe in them. If you think about the twenty two finals, this is a much better Boston team. But Steph was just this singular force, and of all the people in the East who have that sort of ceiling, if we're taking honest out of it, like Embiid is clearly the guy to me, I don't care about his

playoff resume. I do care about his playoff resume. But if you're just talking about who has the most ability, who has like the combination of overwhelming physical traits and skilled shot making and can dominate defensively to just completely lap everybody else out there on the floor. Embiid has that ceiling, and then with Melton back, I think they have a pretty nice collection of perimeter defenders. Their spot up shooting is okay if Maxie explodes like he has

been volatile this year. There's been some up and down stretches, but if he's knocking down his pull up jumpers consistently, it's a tough matchup having to deal with this collection of Boston perimeter defenders, and especially they're so big and physical. But like if Maxi has just dialed in, there's a ceiling there because of the star power that I don't

see anybody else out east reaching. And there's a reason that Philly is thirty and eight win Joe l Embiid plays, and it's because mostly he's been that overwhelmingly great and they've put a nice complimentary supporting cast, and I know that he's struggled historically against Boston and Horford has been like the Embiid stopper. But if his jumper's falling, that to me was the biggest issue in last year's playoff series between the two of them, he just couldn't make

a jumper. I think if that skilled shotmaking holds up, then this ceiling is the roof for him, and that just gives Philly more upside than anybody else to me.

the Knicks, the Bucks, and the Sixers. All three of them when they're healthy, I think present a moderate threat to Boston. When I say moderate meaning like capable of winning, even though you're obviously picking Boston. For Milwaukee, the case is, they're literally the best lineup in the league when they're healthy minimum four hundred minutes. They're outscoring teams by fifteen points per one hundred possessions, which is literally the best net rating in the league for a lineup that's played

that much. For the Knicks, the case is like when Julius Randall's healthy, you have a secondary shot crador I love it. You have to differentiate between good and bad Julius because like when Julius has a long runway and is in rhythm, he's actually a pretty solid player, brings some physical stuff to the game. When he's out of rhythm, he's kind of bad. So like that's kind of like more or less a different between the two, but without.

The thing with the Knicks is like all year long, they've been one of the most likable and high character teams in the league. They play so hard, they play so physical, they do all of these things well. Jalen Brunson is legitimately a superstar or a fringe superstar.

point differential for cleaning the glass. They are the fourth worst defense in those matchups, giving up one hundred and twenty three point four points per one hundred possessions. A lot of small guards on the floor that the really good offenses find a way to attack. So the way that I look at it, like New York to me is like, if they nail their summer, they're going to be a bona fide championship contender next year. I really

do feel that way. The thing with Philly, because I agree with you, Carson, like, what if embiid just goes on a wrecking ball run? Has always been the case

for the upside on when it comes to Philly. However, if I had to pick a season for him bid to break through in that way, it wouldn't be a situation like this where he's coming back from a meniscus in April to try to get a ramp up and go, Like, I just don't think he has the runway to suddenly figure out his playoff issues that he's had in the past. They they're undefeated since he returned to the lineup against

Oklahoma City Thunder. But outside of the Thunder game and the Thunder did sit a bunch of guys in that game. They really haven't played anybody, So, I mean, em beads look fine, but he like, it's hard to really interpret anything from that. So if I had to pick an example of a thread, if I had to, the case would be Milwaukee gets some sort of favorable first round matchup. Like let's say Miami gets through, and Miami obviously is kind of an exposer of fraudulent teams, and I'd probably

still pick Miami to win that series. But let's say that you just ride the home crowd, because Milwaukee's been like one of those teams that can be kind of a buzzsaw at home. They go up two Oho, they go down to Miami, they steal one, Dame goes for forty five in Game five, and they win. Okay, at that point, let's say Yanis returns in May, and you more or less have the team that we've seen their top five be so dominant. I just think of all of the potential outcomes, that is the most realistic is

that somehow Milwaukee survives the first round. Then they get Yannis back, and Yannis is not embeied. He does not need a runway. That dude, walks on the court and is thirty two and fifteen. So like that kind of is more or less how I see the case for a team, But I don't I don't necessarily see a threat to Boston a legitimate threat in the Eastern Conference. All right, let's move out to the bottom of the West, so the playan can go in a million different directions

based on tonight. Tonight has some crazy showdowns. So we have the Suns at the Kings, the Pelicans at the Warriors, and the Lakers at the Grizzlies. And the Lakers will be happy favorites against the Grizzlies, but the Grizzlies had a three game winning streak this month, including they went into Milwaukee and beat the Bucks with Giannis although without Dame. So like the Grizzlies are feisty, they're not necessarily a

complete right off in that game. But to explain the kind of a play in situation for everybody who doesn't understand it, the Lakers, the Kings, and the Warriors are all tied right now, but the Lakers, no matter what, are losing the tiebreaker in those situations. The only team they have a tie breaker over is the Phoenix Suns. Also, all three of those teams are out of striking distance of the New Orleans Pelicans, so they cannot get up to the sixth seed. The best they can all hope

for is seven. Now, if the Suns beat the Kings tonight, and the Pelicans beat the Warriors tonight, and the Lakers beat the Grizzlies tonight, so all three road teams win, the Lakers will move into that eighth spot, and then we'll end up with the Kings Warriors at the bottom. When we get to Sunday's games, they're all more straightforward. There's a Lakers at Pelicans. That's a tough game, but

Suns at Minnesota. That's a tough one for the Suns because the Wolves are probably going to be fending off Oklahoma City at that point and need to win that game, and Minnesota at home in a must win game, you're probably going to pick them there. But the Warriors have an easy game at home against the Jazz, and the Kings have an easy game at home against the Blazers. So if the Kings and Warriors win tonight against the Suns and the Pelicans, then the Lakers will probably end

up at ten. So like it could go in all of these different directions. So I don't even want to try to like sort out who's gonna end up where, because that's just to me a complete and total crapshoot.

Right like, it's playoff basketball at this point. So from that standpoint, let's just look at the strengths of the teams. Who do we think are going to be the seven and the eight seeds when the dust settles from all of this, And I'm not talking about which one goes where. I'm just saying who's gonna be in those spots, Who's gonna be six, who's gonna be seven. Who's gonna be eight? Carson, you go first.

I just think the ceiling they do have because of their shot creation, their offensive skill, the level they can defend at when they're engaged is not the highest, but I like that formula. The Kings, to me, are just like a clear weakest out of this group, especially post Herder, but especially Malik Monk injuries, Like since he went down, they're three to five, they've looked very uninspiring. I just think like the dribble penetration, the shot making, the playmaking

he brings is super important. So I kind of rule them out. And then for the eight seed Lakers Warriors, I do still believe in the Lakers more. The Warriors are playing really good basketball. They are playing their best basketball of the year. They are defending at a high level. It feels like all of the key players outside of maybe Steph who hasn't been his best, but are just kind of in rhythm right now. You've gotten more aggressive, consistent Wiggins, But the Lakers are a brutal matchup for

the Warriors because of their overwhelming size advantage. And I think that, of course, it was a different iteration last

year because they also had much better answers in terms of point of attack defense for Steph Curry, and they were able to just kind of hassle him throughout that series, even though he still dictated things. They don't have that sort of point of attack defender healthy and available right now at the very least. But I just think eighty is a problem for the Warriors. They have not had an answer for him whatsoever on the interior, on the glass, and defensively, like in a single game or in a

playoff environment. He's the guy who I want most on the planet, Sam goes for like single game Lebron, who offensively since the All Star Break has been so absurdly good over twenty seven and nine on sixty seven percent through shooting, And I just think like when it comes down to it, he's gonna hunt the mismatches he wants. He's going to get what he wants at will when he is shooting like this. What a lethal offensive player. So to me, the Lakers just have more firepower. They

have two superstars. The Warriors have one, and they have one who I still absolutely believe in but has been more erratic as of late than really any stretch in recent memory. But it's ultimately about the offensive burden that Steph bears in the lack of shot creation around him, where even if you didn't have crazy Lebron, like, would you be shocked if Delo and Austin Reeves combined for forty five? Of course, not like they're totally capable of

doing that. And then I still like the Lakers the most in terms of playoff prospects out of all of these playing teams. I just think their path they're probably gonna have to come from that nine to ten game. Maybe that they don't, but it just feels like these teams are gonna be playing so hard. I think the Kings maybe end up in the ten, but I like the Lakers more than the Warriors, and so I would go Suns and Lakers in the seven and eight.

And then like what Carson said, God, hey, Dan lebron Man, I can bank on those guys handling business. And it really is sad that the Lakers have dug themselves this hole and they've made this bed for themselves. I don't know, it's funny you were talking, Jason, I think last show or about the stretch after the Ncason Tournament, and it was like after they won the NCAS and tournament and was like, all right, guys, put off the gas man, we already did it. You know we're gonna be great

come playoff time. They just they took that stretch for granted, I still do believe in the Lakers, and then yeah, in one game scenarios. I think Golden State the role players have been playing better. I think Steph has to go Crez and I'm not saying that's not possible, but they're a slight team, been inconsistent. I don't believe in Sacramento. I'm a Kings fan, but without herd Or and Monk, it's tough. The Kings seem to have the Lakers' number, though,

so I think, I don't know. I think King's Lakers is gonna be a really interesting matchup, just the Bonus is so strong, like he's just physical. He matches up with eighty really well. But I'm gonna err on the side of the teams with two superstars. The Sons have Katie and d Book and I think they are gonna go crazy, and then the Lakers have Lebron and Ad.

It's ironic that you know, at the end of the day, that's what it's gonna come down to, is I'm just gonna trust the teams with the most superstar talent to propel themselves. So yeah, I would take Phoenix probably in the seventh spot, and then la Is.

Cam Reddish. This is the real the Haymaker though. In over twenty six hundred possessions with Cam Reddish Andorian Prints off the floor this season, the Lakers have a plus nine point three net rating cleaning the glass, which her perspective, and again this is never apples to apples because the Timberwolves have played some bad lineups this year too, But the Timberwolves have the second best net rating in the

league basically at plus seven. So to give you an idea, the Lakers, if you just removed the Cam Reddish Tatorian Prince minutes, have performed like a bona fide championship contender in a massive, massive sample size. That's how much of a catastrophe that specific issue has been, which is why I have still to this day I had another tweet yesterday, like why is he talking about a ten seed in the Western Conference? And it's like people just they struggle

to sift through that, especially the Western Conference. To me, again, even the Warriors to me, belong in the same conversations as these other teams in the West. They probably deserve to be at the bottom of that list. But they're the thing with the Warriors that they haven't been very good against the good teams in the league this year. That's their main kind of gripe that you have to

point to. The Lakers have seventeen wins against teams in the top ten in point differential, which is the best tide for the with Oklahoma City for the most in the league, and they are fifth in point differential against the teams that are in the top ten in point differential. So the Lakers have been consistently good against the good teams in the league this year. Here's kind of how I look at this situation if I had to predict what's.

in the Western Conference. So I think that the Warriors will beat the Pelicans tonight at home, and again, Pelicans can win that game. I'm not trying to write them off. They put length on Steph. Steph as a rough night. Other guys don't make shots. They could very easily lose that game. But I'm gonna pick the Warriors tonight. I do think the Suns will go into Sacramento and beat the Kings, so that would put the Lakers up into the ninth spot, the Warriors into the eighth spot, and

the Kings down at the ten spot. From there, if the Lakers beat the Pelicans and the Suns beat Minnesota, that would be the ideal outcome for the Lakers because that would kick the Suns up into the sixth seed and the Pelicans at the seven. The the Lakers would still be at nine, but then the Lakers would have a home game against the Kings, and then they would get to play the loser of Golden State versus the Pelicans,

which I think is are better matchups for them. The Lakers did get their butt kicked by the Suns the last time they played them, so that could be a little bit of a concern. The Kings have been a bad matchup for the Lakers, but without Malik Monk in the equation, they can key in on Deer and Fox Moore, and I just think it gives them a substantially better chance of winning that game, So that I think is the most likely outcome.

Or if Oklahoma City, like that is still in flux for the two three, and that obviously is home court advantage for the conference semi so that's a substantial reward that you're fighting for there, and Both of those teams are gonna want home court advantage because they're young, they're athletic, they feed on their defense, so on and so forth.

So looking at it from that perspective, I think the Wolves will beat the Sun. So my best guess is we'll have Pelicans at and then it'll be Suns Warriors in the seven eight game in Phoenix, and then it'll be Lakers Kings in the nine to ten game. I think the Lakers will beat the Kings. I think Suns Warriors could go either way, but regardless of who wins that game, I would pick the Lakers to win on

the road against the loser of that game. So it's going to either be Pelican's Sons Lakers or Pelican's Warriors Lakers, is my best guess. If I had to pick gun to my head right now, I'm gonna go Pelican Sons Lakers as the six, seven eight right now. So that was a mouthful. That was a very very confusing type of situation, but that's kind of the way I see

it breaking down. And then we have a good chance of seeing Lakers Nuggets in the first round, which would be at least for that at least if that if I'm Lebron there, and I'd rather face the Nuggets later on. But if I'm Lebron there, I'm sitting there thinking like, like, at least we'll find out right away off the start year, I won't have to do I won't have to go through a month long war with some before we see

the Nuggets. So all right, before we get out here today, we're gonna spend some time doing a deep dive into the Clippers versus the MAVs series. This is the one series that is actually set in stone at this point. They've played three times this year, and the Clippers have won two of them, but they have not played since the They have not played since the since the calendar turned over, so they have one game in December, two games in November.

Washington and Daniel Gafford. We have no evidence of what it looks like with the good MAVs versus the good version of the Clippers.

He struggles a little bit against the bigger forwards that he goes against. But this is kind of the predicament that Dallas is in with this particular matchup. Is like, if you put Derek Jones on Paul George, then you have to put most likely Kyrie Irving onto James Harden. And that's, you know, a matchup that James Harden is gonna feel more comfortable in than he would in some

other matchups. And so that's where it gets tricky for me, is like, is there a version of this where the MAVs lean heavily into Maxie at the five and then have Maxi on Kawhi and then try to put PJ. Washington on Paul George so that they can put Derek Jones on James Harden. But that like the the matchups are a little bit tricky for Dallas in this one. So I'm gonna I'm gonna bounce this around to you guys,

and we'll go to you first. Carson, Like, how would you just match up in both the starting five and in your ideal kind of configuration against the Clippers if you're Dallas.

don't have Batoom. And I like what you're talking about in terms of Maxi matching up with Kawhi not having a weak perimeter defender on James Harden. My concern at that point is just like how you deal with Zubots, because I think he is the level of interior finisher and mismatch attacker. He's like a ninetieth percentile post score this year, and he doesn't miss those hooking touch shots.

He is like the closest to Jokic in terms of efficiency from that range, and in fact, I think this year it's much lower volume, obviously, but he's making like sixty six percent. So I just worry about if he plays those small ball looks off the floor to where they're not tenable for Dallas because they're gonna have to try to match up physically. And I think that they can with an actual five out there like Gafford, but I'm not sure that they can survive the small ball looks here.

you know, a bad stretch from him. But I think I'm comfortable with that PJ on Kawhi Derek Jones Junior on PG And yeah, I don't know, man, I I'm not a big Kleiba guy.

twenty two point three percent of missus. So that's what a seventy seven point seven percent defensive rebound percentage, which is incredible. The to me, like when I when I look at the starting configuration, because they're gonna start Gafford right, and so it'll be Gafford ver Zubatch And like Carson, you hinted at this, and I'm one hundred percent with you.

This is a Zubatch series in so many different ways because like, if Zubach is on the floor and playing well, Dallas will have to size up to deal with him. If Gafford is on the floor or Lively, whoever it is that they have at the five spot, that puts you in a predicament with the other three guys because you need Luca to not be guarding James harden Kawhi Leonard or Paul George right. That is going to that's going to put a lot of pressure on Kyrie Irving

to be very good defensively in the series. Now, for the record, I think Kyrie Irving is a guy that, like in the aggregate, is an average to blow average defensive player. But when he does his job, he has the tools to be an impactful defensive player. And we've seen I even thought he was very good defensively in the twenty sixteen finals for the most part, So like he has that in him. Obviously a much younger version of him, but like that's gonna be the big swing factor.

If Dallas can do enough damage to Zubaj that that the Clippers end up going small, That's where I look at at or if Kleiba can somehow hang with Zubach enough and they can get to that PJ. Washington Kliba front court, that to me is the scariest version of this team. If you can get Luca and Kyrie out there with Derek Jones and PJ. Washington in MAXI Kliba.

I'm putting Kleeban Kawhi, I'm putting PJ. Washington on Paul George, I'm putting Derek Joe Junior on James Harden, and I'm hedging and recovering every action with Kyrie Irving and Luka Danciic in it, and I actually like the the MAVs chances in that configuration. I definitely think small ball heavily favors Dallas in this matchup.

defensively much more. But I totally agree. I think Luca is going to be an absolute problem no matter what the Clippers do. But I think they're probably at their best defensively, like starting with Zoo in, drop in Kawhi on Luca, and then I think they're gonna have to mix in like a heavy deal of trapping and just say, okay, Derek Jones Junior, PJ. Washington, like knock down your spot up jumpers off this four on three because we just

can't let Luca murder us in single coverage. Sorry, I moved to Dallas offense, but I was just thinking about that time hermutations with the getting Zoo off the floor. I think the Clippers really want Zoo on the floor in this. I think his physicality is rebounding, his interior defense, and his just overall finishing offensively. It is something that they kind of need if they go small. I just think Dallas has more pop and their small ball is also bigger than the Clippers.

possession down. Yeah, I don't know if it matters. And I think Carson made a good point like if the Clippers had but Tom, I think that's a real difference maker and like just another look that you can throw with him PJ.

this will eventually tilt towards Kawhi on Luca. That's what happened in the previous iterations of this matchup in the postseason. That was what turned it around last time when Luca had them on the ropes. It was Kawhi one on Luca and was able to kind of change the dynamic of the series. What I think about happening and where I think this is inevitably heading. As I mentioned, I think on Luca will force Luca to call up ball screens.

So Luca has this tendency of being like, oh, I don't want to deal with the traps, so I'm just going to take my guy in straight ISO, And obviously a hard double in a hard double in a straight ISO situation compromises the defense more than a hard double in a ball screen because a hard double and the ball screen the screeners in a little bit of a this in fantagious position as he's trying to disengage and get the basketball, whereas in a double team in an ISO,

you can just flash and there's usually an opening that you can capitalize on. So from there, kind of looking back at the Warriors game when they beat the MAVs, what was that a week ago? Like Andrew Wiggins actually makes Luca a little uncomfortable and specifically, he doesn't even feel comfortable getting to his pull up three. So what that did is that made Luca call ball streams consistently, which allowed Golden State to trap, which then got them

in rotation. And they're not as good at the four on threes as some of the other teams in the league. They'll get the ball to the corners, but it's like it's PJ. Washington shooting a corner three. It's a Derek Jones junior corner three, it's a Maxicaliba corner three. It's that sort of thing, and they can miss those shots. Now, as I've said before about the MAVs, I think that dynamic still favors Dallas in the sense that it's worth

it to have PJ. Washington and maxically as defenders in what they can do, like it's worth it to have the two way ceiling that the MAVs have. But my guess is that eventually, over the course of the series series, Kawhi will end up on Luca, and then.

Clippers for stretches. And I think the Clippers are going to be able to slow down the MAVs for stretches by putting Kawhi on Luka don Chicch and trapping Kyrie obviously is gonna have advantages, but Kyrie is not the type of vor force that Luca is in terms of like being truly unguardable in terms of specific types of matchups. So I do think that that that's the direction this is heading, and that's what kind of keeps me thinking this is going to be a.

but they've been significantly less efficient. They average like zero twenty eight nine points per possession, which really isn't good. And I think the biggest factor is just that the spot up shooting isn't as good. And you mentioned it's like if PJ. Washington goes twenty five percent in a season from deep, if Derek Jones Junior goes twenty five percent,

like you just wouldn't be surprised. So I think forcing the ball out of Luca's hands just with the level he's at, and I do think they have to have Kawhi on him when it matters most. But ultimately, I just love what I've been seeing from this Dallas team. I think the offensive level that they've been at is ridiculous. I think that they have much more consistently shown defensive engagement as of late, and it's the playoffs, so it's

gonna be a different beast. I think we get a better version of the Clippers defense definitely than we have. But I do think they match up physically and athletically in the front court and on the glass much better

than they have in recent years. So with my concerns about Harden, with not fully knowing about Kawhi's health, and with the fact that Luca again like you can trap, and you can do that in stretches, but I still think even if it comes down to him resorting to attacking you and Iso, especially anybody other than Kawhi, like he's just at that special level offensively right now where it feels like he can basically get you good shots almost no matter what. And Kyrie has been so dynamic offensively.

I'm just really, really optimistic about Dallas. But I do think Thelippers are really good, and I think this is going to be a hell of a series. But I would take the MAVs in six really quickly.

the MAVs. I'm just saying like it is tilted in the sense that it used to be, like, for instance, Golden State, like they in the twenty twenty two series, they were staying home and trying to force Luca to score because, especially with the Wiggans matchup, it just was a tough one for him. But they were so good

shooting off the ball. They said so much off ball shooting, and this team is just more geared towards defensive personnel, and yeah, like the best way to guard this Dallas Mavericks team is to get the ball out of Luca's hands and try to make someone else shoot, which is typically not the way you want to deal with that type of matchup. All right, Logan, what's your pick for the series?

And then another thing to me, I think Kyrie Irving is the best co stars that Luca has ever had on the stage. And you know, I know that Jalen Brunson had I mean a great stretch, you know, during that Western Conference Finals run, even in games where Luca wasn't out there. So this doesn't mean I don't want to discredit what Brunson did during that run, but he's a different player now, you know. I mean, he is just in a different tier of ability now at this

stage in his career. This is the best co star that you know, Luca has ever had. And with these questions surrounding the Clippers, I just couldn't pick them. Kawhi's health as we've talked on so much, and then yeah, I think James Harden is due for another dud in the playoff. Shocker, what a hot take. So yeah, I think Dallas is just a better team. But I do think this is gonna be a really good series, and I wouldn't be surprised if LA somehow pushed this seven.

But I think it's uh, I think the Mavericks.

Clippers at four. So even though I'm picking Dallas to win this series, like I very much believe in the Clippers as a playoff team, I very much believe in them as a legitimate threat, and I don't want to like kind of write that off, if that makes sense. I'm not seeing any odds for the Clippers mav series, which is kind of a bummer. They should totally have that up. Maybe I'm just looking in the wrong place.

We'll have to look it up later. But anyway, any other thoughts on this series before we get out any any like random kind of things you're gonna be looking out for. Any are we gonna get like who's more likely to botch this for the Clippers? Rt Westbrooker, Harden like that.

the game with his athleticism. The biggest thing for me that we haven't really touched on is just the stakes of this moment and like the history of this matchup, because these have been two of the best first round series in recent years, and I think this pretty clearly has the potential to be the best because there's just more basketball talent on the floor now with Kyrie out there, even with Harden out there as a third star level guy for the Clippers. Luca's better than he's ever been.

And historically Luca just had like these ridiculous repoint shooting season series against the Clippers where it's like, Okay, he's reigning forty to forty five percent of his step back threes, but that has become closer and closer to the norm for him, Like he's just gotten so much more consistent in terms of his step back and pull up three point shooting efficiencies. So I kind of think he's gonna go nuclear on them again, and he just has done

that over the years. So I'm excited to see the rematch and the potential Luca revenge element of it.

We might even ramp that up. We'll be going live after games as well. But you can always find those full shows on the Nerd Sash YouTube page and you can listen across audio platforms. And if you want our trivia content, that's the other big thing we do. That's TikTok and Instagram at nerd Sash, Twitter at nerd Underscore sessh.