The Volume.
All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight. Here at the Volume, Happy Wednesday, everybody. Round two coverage of the NBA Playoffs. Here at Hoops Tonight is brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.
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We have very special guests today, a couple of new teammates here at the Volume, mister Logan Camden and mister Carson Breber, who many of you guys know from many of the shows that we've done over the course of the last couple of years. They run NERD SESSH. They've been grinding building this thing up for a while. I'm super stoked for you guys to be on the same team with you. And most importantly, we have four incredibly
entertaining playoff series to get into. So, without any further ado, Lakers four Years was billed as Steph Curry versus Lebron James, and in my series preview, I was very delivered at the beginning to make it clear that I wasn't looking
at it like that. I was looking at it as Lakers versus Warriors, and not just because of Anthony Davis, but because there are so many players in this series that are going to be massive swing factors at various points throughout, and Anthony Davis is just as capable of leaving this series as a guy who is determined to be the best player in this series as a mister Steph Curry or long shot Lebron James. So my question
for you guys, we can start with you, Carson. How do the Warriors solve the Anthony Davis problem?
I don't know that they really can. I mean, we saw Ady absolutely dominate Game one on both sides of the ball, and I think that when he's at this level as a shot maker, if it's from that ten to twelve foot range, if it's his turnarounds out of the post as he was especially in the first half here, there really isn't an answer. I think that you can try sticking Dre on him more. I know that you
want him in that constant helper role. But I did think as we saw him on Ad a bit more in the home stretch of this game, the fourth quarter, he was able to make him more uncomfortable than Looney. I think that he's just a feistier defender. I thought he can tested him better. I think that he is going to be a more physical guy in that role more capable of potentially poking the ball out if he gets an ad face up. And Ady did not score in the last eight mins of this one, as dominant
as he was overall. But I think the even bigger problem is what Aid is doing defensively, because the bottom line is that the Lakers have a size pain advantage offensively from a lot more than ad. We saw their guards getting downhill largely at will. If Lebron turns up to that top tier, Ruey and Vando even are going to be relatively effective interior scores if they get their looks. But I thought what Ady was able to do completely
taking away the paint was incredible. I think he is on one of the best defensive runs in this postseason that I can recall from anybody. So I think they actually have to go to more steph pick and roll, and I think that they're probably gonna have to involve eighties man some as scary as that is because of how good he is guarding in space by big man standards, just to get him out of the paint. To put
yourself in a position where it's okay, they're hedging. Now we have a four on three, we have Looney and Dre making decisions out of the short role. Because through these playoffs so far, if it hasn't been unbelievable Steph shot making, that's been their best offense, it's been Okay, we're playing with an advantage. These guys are great decision makers. We have good cutters, good shooters. Let's dissect now, and it all starts with demanding the respect that Steph does
as a ball handler. And we saw them go to Steph handling the ball more late in this game, and we saw it spark a bit of a run. So I think eighty is a big problem. I think the Lakers overall size athleticism advantages their defensive personnel, their ability to attack the paint. This is a lot for the Warriors to work out. But I think that they're gonna need nuclear staff and they're gonna need to maximize feeding off of his attention and they have to lean into that one.
Hundred percent agree. What are your thoughts slogan?
I think the exact same thing.
I think they need to turn to stuff, pick and roll at the top of the key see if they can draw him out.
I mean, they completely took the pain away in.
This game, they wrecked up ten blocks. Just eleven percent of the Warriors shots come at the rim. That's twelve total attempts through the game. Not only did they not get a lot of attempts at the rim, they didn't convert them.
They just make fifty eight percent of their at rim attempts.
And I think it's, like you noted Carson, so many long rangy defenders here, it's gonna be hard with any to get any interior offense at all in this series. I think that starts with the pick and roll at the top of the key. If that's Pool, if that's Play, if that's Steph, and they were dropping a lot too. Pool got some really good opens looks that he was able to step into out of the pick and roll, because guys are so far dropped into the paint.
I think the pick.
And roll you try to get ad to draw out of the paint. I think you either try to drive into maybe get Steph into float to range. Just get this defense in rotation a little bit. But it is going to be tough too with the drop that they were running on all of the non shooters too, Graymond Looney, Jamichael Green, Gary Payton. The second all of these guys.
Even backdoor cuts weren't open in this series too. But I think it starts with leaning into the pick and roll too more with all of these guys full play and Steph Curry. This is a Warriors team that is running pick and roll with the least amount of frequency out of all the teams in the playoffs left and we've seen it lead to consistent offense for a team like the Miami Heat with a lot of great shooters.
I think that is what the Warriors need to lean into really heavily in this series, just to attempt to get this Lakers defense in.
Rotation a little more and just open up.
Space in the mid range and in the paint, because with what they're doing right now in the personnel for the Lakers, there's nothing. It is super clogged up in the paint and on the interior of the arc.
Yeah, you know this, This thing with begging for Steph to run more high pick and roll has been a theme for Warriors fans in general for years now, like dating all the way dating all the way back to the original run, even before Kevin Durant was around, and that was what ended up turning around the twenty fifteen Finals, for instance, was just leaning heavily on high pick and roll again.
Like it.
It's almost been said so many times that it's become cliche, but it's just the reality of the predicament. I expect this series, especially after rewatching that game this morning, I think both teams are going to be able to massively hinder the opposing offense. Carson, you hit on some stuff with Draymond Green on Anthony Davis. Anthony Davis has a has a real advantage against Draymond Green in height, and
he's going to get some good looks against him. When I say good looks, I mean like looks that he he's capable of making in terms of hook shot and fadeaways and stuff like that. But I do think he can take away the easy towards the rim stuff, which is a big deal. Andrew Wiggins did a good job on Lebron James last night. He's going to do a good job on him throughout the series, although I'd like to see Lebron James try to post him up a
little bit more. I thought that the Warrior guards at various points in the game did a good job against Angelo Russell and Austin Reeves, even though those guys did have baskets in specific matchups and specific scenarios. So I think the Warriors are going to eventually slow down the Lakers.
And on the other end of the floor, again, like the all of the off ball stuff, the lock and trail stuff, I think is kind of dead on arrival, except against the Laker bench when you get some sloppy or less focused defenders that are going to make more mistakes, like Troy Brown Junior for example.
But like to.
Me, there's a schematic reason why the high pick and roll matters, and it's less about like, oh, we need the ball in STEP's hands, that's not it. It's about getting Steph separated. Like if you could get the ball to Steph off the ball coming off of screens but he's open, ideally, that's obviously a great option. But it's less about that and more about the simple fact that in a lock and trail position, Jared Vanderbilt can stay attached. In an on ball situation, it's much easier for Steph
to get him separated, and it's really simple. If Steph is running off these actions, Jared Vanderbilt has a very simple assignment he's just running around after it, right, But if it's a live dribble situation, he's squared up with them. Laterally, he's trying to set himself up to chase over picks, right, So he's setting up his high foot to.
Get over whatever.
Direction on the screen is coming, and Steph can flip the angle on him three or four times in rapids accession, and that gets to the point where Jared Vanderbilt inevitably is going to run in the screen as Kevon Looney's flipping that angle on the screen every single time. Laker fans, you're probably super familiar with this with Austin Reeves. Austin Reeves is one of the best players in the league. Get this, just multiple behind the back dribbles and counter
moves to get the defender to lean one way. And Dante de Vincenzo did a great job on Austin Reeves during one of the shifts, but Austin still managed to get downhill on him. You probably remember the lob dunk to Lebron in large part because he just hit four
or five counter moves before he finally got downhill. That's again, the best option for the Warriors to get shots in this slog of a series as we move forward, will be Steph with the live dribble being able to get separation from Jared Vanderbilt, which will pull Anthony Davis out further to have to contest those shots, which is going to open everything up on the back end, and the Lakers or the Warriors are going to do just as
well slowing down the Lakers on the other end. It's going to be a rock fight, and I do think that it's going to be a question of who can make more shots Lebron James and Anthony Davis around the rim or Steph Curry and pick and roll. My next question for you guys is this dating back to last year. And I know it's just one game, so I obviously we have the right to kind of flip this opinion.
Do you think this Lakers team is better than any team that the Warriors played during their playoff run last year?
That's a good question. I think, I lean yes. I think because of and the Lakers aren't the epitome of like consistent seamless execution, because of the lapses that we see from them when they get up and obviously we almost saw it to a disastrous extent last night, But I do feel that their ability to consistently exert that rim pressure compared to the inconsistency and difficult shot making and decision making that we saw from that Celtics team
last year. And also, I think this Lakers team is every bit as good, if not better, defensively because of how dominant eighty is on the interior. You mentioned how great Jared Vanderbilt has been consistently off ball on Steph
or was in Game one. I guess it depends on what version of Lebron they get, because the secondary creation from Reeves and Dill and Shrewder was awesome in this game, and it's not always that awesome, like if Dilo's difficult shot making is off, he can be a flat out negative. Shrewder I thought was weaponizing his quickness. He took some bad shots, but he was able to get away with it because of how good he was getting to the rim getting the line overall, and Reeves is pretty consistent
when those guys are clicking. When this team is locked in defensively, And if we see a better version of Lebron, then I think it would be no doubt. But I'm still just a bit concerned about Lebron's reliance on the jump shot, which has been abysmal. How content he has been to say, all right, I'll get my looks off the catch out of side pick and roll, or if I am gonna create my own shot, it's very likely to be a pull up jumper. I don't know how much of that is him pacing himself. I don't know
if the foot is a concern there. It's tough to say. But regardless, this version of Lebron does concern me a bit. But I think this Lakers ceiling, yeah, is better than any team that the Warriors beat last year. In Game one, I thought the Lakers looked outstanding.
Yeah, I think this is a better team that they faced.
But I think it largely has to do with the defensive ceiling that the Lakers can reach. I think they're
just a flat out better defense. I mean, Boston was great last season, but I think this is a better Lakers team because of all the advantages that they have physically, especially in we saw Wiggins, Looney, Draymond come up big and hustle and effort plays in the finals last season, and that's something that they're going to really struggle to create an advantage in in the terms of they're not just going to be able to out hustle the Lakers. The Lakers have such a physical advantage that just pure
effort is not going to give them an advantage. And I do think you're right, Carson. I think Lebron is the swing factor if they are definitively the better team. What I'd like to see Lebron if he is not fully locked in and fully engaged in going to control the game the way old Lebron could Jason something you laid out, I just want to see him use his size more on a guy like Wiggins. Just back him down and go on the low block, go on the post, back him down and just garner.
A little more attention.
Get a guy to slide off of a shooter and create an open look for him. If you're not going to control the game and be super physical and the old Lebron and getting downhill and just completely controlling the game, then just draw a little more attention. A we said this on the show last night, Carson, A Lebron jump shot is not an efficient shot.
At this point in his career.
He's shooting fourteen point six on threes in these playoffs thus far, and.
It's just not a good jump shot.
It's just not an efficient look for any team on any possession. I want Lebron to lean into what he does well at this point in his career if he's not going to make a concerted effort to get to the wreck. But I do think this Lakers team is better than Boston, and they're going to be drastically better than Boston if Lebron could turn back the clock.
So to me, you both hit on important things. The defensive personnel element. Boston is a deeper defensive team that goes without saying in terms of, like, you know, the seventh or eighth guy off the bench being an outstanding defensive player. That's a different level than what the Lakers
can muster. But the top end defense of personnel on the Lakers is definitively better, and specifically the guys that you're involving in the most important action for the Warriors, which is a Steph Curry ball screen or off ball screen. Right talked a little bit about this last night. But like as good as Robert Williams is and as athletic as he is, he's just not the same as Anthony Davis.
And as I think Al Horford has a similar defensive IQ to Anthony Davis, just without the physical tools, right, Like, if you could combine those two guys, you might have an Anthony Davis type of talent. But and then all of these guards like you know, Marcus Smart, Derek White, Chase and Steph over the top of screens, they just can't really apply the same level of back pressure to
someone like Jared Vanderbilt. And so again, in terms of a defensive matchup, it's less about the totality of the roster and the way that this Laker team can guard this Warriors team because of the guy that can put on Steph and the guy that they can put in the back line to help against Steph. Again, that's the power of Anthony Davis, the best defensive player in the
league in my opinion, when he's truly locked in. They have a bunch of very very specific roster attributes that make them a terrible matchup for the Warriors in a way that goes beyond what the teams last year. By the way, that doesn't mean the Warriors can't win the series. It just means it'll be a tougher fight. I mean, if you really look back last year, they never were challenged enough to go to a seventh game. Even in that Memphis series they'd punted Game five. Yeah they were.
They won the Celtics series in six, but they were down two to one. They dominated that series down the stretch, like the Warriors never really got pushed to the brink in that in that particular series to the same extent last year, to the same extent that I think this Lakers team is capable of. Again, it remains to be seen.
But because it's because the defensive personnel to legitimately bothers Steph a switchable size, which is such a huge factor because the Warriors have been playing rim protectors off the floor for years and years and years, and then on the offensive end of the floor a great amount of aggregate size to get high quality shots in the paint against the Warriors. Again, like if you look at the shot chart for the Lakers in that game, they're just getting a lot of shots in that inside of fifteen
feet close to the rim. Even for their guards against the Warriors drop coverage, they're just getting a lot of really good looks. So I do think I do think this Laker. I'm not going to say they're better than the Celtics just yet. I just think they're capable of that, and the Lebron part is the swing factor, and I agree.
Now, I do think the.
Lebron stuff is a little overstated, and this is the case that I'd make for that. It really just comes down to the jump shot for me. Now, Logan, you said, you know, this is just at this point in his career, he can't make a shot efficiently the way he used to. I'm not saying that that's not necessarily the case. I
guess next year will be the determining factor. But Lebron has had this every once in a while, where like he'll go six or seven years of consistent jump shooting and then they'll just have this one year where he can't make a shot. That was basically twenty fifteen, and it's happening again this year. It's been like an all season like wide open catch and shoot threes. Every single type of shot that Lebron takes that is a jump shot, he's been converting at a significantly lower rate than he
used to. He's been a thirty six percent postseason three point shooter for like the better part of a decade now, Like that's just the reality of Lebron James. He's missing the same shots he's been usually making, and if you really zoom in on the numbers, he's actually getting to the rim and finishing there about as frequently and about as efficiently as ever. He's shooting over sixty three percent on twos in this postseason run. That's the second highest
mark of his career. The volume is pretty similar to what it was in twenty twenty.
If he just.
Shot his regular thirty five ish percent from three, he'd be averaging twenty six points per game on a pretty decent level of efficiency, which is Lebron James, you know. And then defensively, I think he's been fantastic in the last several games since the beginning of the Memphis series.
During that run last night.
He had an unbelievable block of Steph Curry on the opposite end of the rim. They tell you go to the other end of the rim because the net and the rim will protect you, and Lebron somehow evaded all of that and blocked Steph on the opposite end of
the rim. I thought he had a couple of big transition pushes, one where he got called for a travel, but there was another one where he just saw the tunnel there and Jordan Poole was the only one that was back, and he just hit the jets and he's like, I'm getting a freaking foul here, man, And he got there and he got the free throw that bumped the lead up to three, which put Golden State in a different situation with the in terms of their offensive approach.
So with Lebron now, he might never make the jump shot in this playoff run, and if that's the case, I think that lowers this Lakers ceiling. But I do think Lebron's mobility and age are being overstated a bit when I do think this is just a guy that is having an uncharacteristic bad shooting season, which is something he's been capable of doing. But let's let's move on to Nuggets Suns. So this series has been super interesting
on a bunch of different levels. The Suns team in particular, I don't think we had a really good feel for because they played so many games again bad teams. When Kevin Durant came back and so we're like, okay, they're beating everybody. Okay, they're scoring the ball really well, but like, what are they really capable of? And you know, we start to think about our postseason you know, checklists, and
it's like, okay, do they thrive in physicality? We'll see, you know, do they have good point of attack defense? And we'll see, you know, how's their rid protection at like all these different things. The big one that concerned me was like, they rely on pull up jump shooting, and I've just seen that sort of thing go south, and once again, through two games, they're way below their normal level of efficiency and pull up jump shooting in
a super physical series. And here we are with Kevin Durant the postgame presser saying things like, man, I got good looks. I don't know what's going on. They're just not going in. He was saying the same shit against Celtics last year. So, like, I do think that a lot of this is some reality check for the Suns
and the way they play. That said, Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the series by a mile in my opinion, and I think that a lot of the postseason limitations with Jokic, I've just posted them as relative to the top players in the league. But I think even beyond that, in the media and with fans, I think people have portrayed Yokic is a bad playoff player, which is something I disagree with. Do you think this series is going to finally silence the Jokic doubters?
Well, I'll start on this one, Jason, because this is a big part of my personal brand. I don't know. I cannot get inside the mind of a legitimate Yokic doubterer,
And of course there are fair questions to ask. For example, I was concerned about him matching up with the Sun's pick and roll in this series and the level of pull up jump shooting that book and Katie and CP three when he was healthy or capable of, because it was just two years ago that we saw CP three score eleven mid range points per game on sixty five percent shooting from the mid range against Yokic playing out of drop where I thought he conceded those shots like layups.
I do think he's fared better in that matchup than I expected. I do think the Nuggets will overall have schemed better. I think Aaron Gordon has done a really good job on Kadie and stretches. I think they've done a good job with those trailing contests on the midrange pull ups, and bottom line, the Suns aren't making the shots at an efficient enough clip. And it's like Mike Malone said after Game one, tough twos aren't gonna beat the Nuggets in their offensive machine. Even though Game two
was a more labored effort. Nobody creates better shots than the Denver Nuggets, and I do think Nikole Jokic deserves the line and share of the credit for that. And he has consistently been a phenomenal offensive player in the postseason, better even, I think than in the regular season because
he becomes more aggressive as a scorer. We've seen him increase his scoring in each postseason compared to that regular season by over three points per game every single time that he's been there, and we've seen him elevate the Nuggets team offense to be a top five playoff offense every single time he's been there. Two of those years with Fakuno Compazzo and Austin Rivers as his backcourt and
then with Monte Morrison. Will Barton like he is up there with Steph as the most complete one man offensive engine in basketball right now. So if you can't see that, then I really don't know what you're watching. Like, the guy's an unstoppable one on one score, Jason. He's one of the great playoff scores in NBA history. He is currently the highest scoring center per game in NBA history. Now, you do have a bit of a decline from some
of the all time greats in their later years. If you just go through age twenty eight seasons, then of guys to play in at least forty five games, he's fourth. He's behind just Kareem Wilt and Shack. So for that to be your secondary skill set, that's pretty darn good. And nobody on this Suns team can guard him like nobody in the NBA can guard him because there is a level of touch shot making with him that you
cannot take away. When a guy's two hundred and eighty five pounds and can put up a hook or a floater and hit it with a sixty percent clip whenever he wants, or go to that turnaround and hit that with a fifty plus percent efficiency, or spin out and maintain his body control and get a good look around them, or come out of picking pop situations. He's a forty
percent career three point shooter in the playoffs. There's just no formula to stop that when he's also the best passer arguably on the planet and certainly the best passing big that we've ever seen. So I think this should convince people. But again, it's like, I don't know how you could hold the last two years against him. Sure he had some ugly moments defensively, but offensively he did everything he always has. And I tweeted this out and
I believe it. I think the gap between him and Mbat offensively in a playoff setting is much bigger than people have made it out to be. I think he is point blank a better playoff scorer than Joel Embiid, and I think that the career production certainly speaks to that,
almost three more points per game in the playoffs. The efficiency he's almost seven percent better in terms of effective field goal percentage because he is a better shot maker, and I think that is what scales better than anything else. That is what we saw in that massive game against Minnesota. That's what we saw in this pass game. If it's as a cut the floaters off the roll, as a popper or from that float range out of the post. His touch and shot making is just on a different
level and you can't take that away. He doesn't need to get to the line, He doesn't need anything other than what he does with regularity and what he makes look easy. And of course he can't double him. And you can absolutely hinder Embiid as a scorer if you are doubling him aggressively and he's not holding you accountable for that at the rate that he needs to. And that's just never gonna happen with Yo, because he's gonna do that every single night. So I think he's been
awesome in this playoff run. I think he is going to make a push for best player in the world. I think Steph and he are clearly the two best offensive players.
In the world.
And this is what he does. This isn't a surprise, This isn't like some revelation. This is nikol Jokic and what he does. And yeah, now it's leading the team success because he has a capable supporting cast around him, and by the way, a supporting cast that is clearly better than the Suns. Denver should win this series, not just because they have the best player, but because they have the better team.
Carson might not be able to get into the mind of a Jokic hater, but I will toss play this one very quickly. The sad reality of NBA discourse nowadays in the way the neanderthal brain thinks, is basically, until Nikola Jokic gets that ring, people are gonna hate on his regular season accolades and all the awards that he's won and all the praise that he gets from NBA
heads across the league. Until Jokic gets that monkey off of his back and finally gets a ring, most people are going to discredit everything he's done in the playoffs, everything that he's done award wise. So yeah, I think for the mass contingency, you know, in the big NBA discourse, until Jokic gets a ring, I think people are still going to hate and still not going to crown him
and praise is Jokic. But like you said, Carson, I think if you're watching these games, if you're seeing what Nikola Jokic is doing night tonight, masterful passing in a spec in Game two, like you said, Carson, where his skill set, you can't take it away when everything else, it's such a slog. Offensively, Jamal Murray is not hitting anything. He goes three to fifteen. Michael Porter Junior is not
giving you anything. The Nuggets offense is just not working like a machine when it is so down and dirty and so nasty. Jokic didn't need an excuse. He took over and he did what superstars do, and he showed you how we can score the basketball and how you can't take away his scoring skill set either. So to keep it brief, I think for the for most of people in NBA discourse, until he gets that ring, I think that people aren't going to give him his love.
But if you're watching these games, I don't know how you can discredit what Yokic is doing on the court. And I also think he is one of the two best players in the world.
Yeah, I think there's a fine line between being like over the top critical for no particular reason and just being slow to elevate. So, for instance, like for me, I'm okay with being like, yeah, I get the trophy before I put you over steph Kde and Lebron Sorry, Like, I don't think that that's that ridiculous of a take. I and to me, that's more about the sanctity of
the achievement. I mean again, like it's just like, let's just give you an example, like for Jokic to get the trophy, he has to go through Kevin Durant and the Suns team, and then he's gonna have to go through either Steph Curry the defending champion, or this Lebron Anthony Davis team, and then in all likelihood the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. Like when he gets to the end of that rope, that's a level of achievement that needs to be treated with the appropriate level of respect.
And like that's the thing, like Lebron James in his past has gone through Damian Lillard and then gone through Harden and Russell Westbrook and then gone through jokicch and Murray and then gone through Bam and Jimmy like he's done it, Like when you've done the sixteen win thing. It's just so sacred to me that I'm okay with being like, hey, jokicch you're freaking incredible, man, go get the trophy before we give you the that that level
of respect, I'm okay with that. However, there's a difference between that and like, this dude's a bum.
He can't succeed in the playoffs.
That's just stupid, and like and again, like there is again when I'm comparing him to the top players in the league, do I think there's a difference between Like, for instance, I think Anthony Davis has been every bit is impressive in this postseason run. As Nuklea Jokic, I'm sorry, but his impact on the defensive end has been frightening and has Like this Laker team, I'm not sure they win a single one of these games if Anthony Davis misses.
That's just that's just a real They're not beating Memphis, and they're not be They got their ass kicked every time he was off the floor against Memphis, and he excuse me, I had to play every single minute in the second half against the Warriors last night. Like there is a there is value in what in what Anthony Davis can do on the defensive end. I think he has a legitimate case to be the best player in the world if he can lead this Laker team to
an NBA championship. I do think it's okay to bring up the difference in being what Yoki has become, which is an acceptable COG and a defensive system in the NBA playoffs, that is where he needed to get to and he's there on the offensive end, and Carson, you hit on this he made. This is a crazy stat. He made fourteen field goals in the paint In Game two against Phoenix, the Suns attempted fourteen shots in the
entire game in the restricted area. See like, that's that's the type of dynamic that wins in the NBA playoffs. Like when we look back, it's like last year's the outlier at Steph Curry's the greatest perimeter player that's below six ' five in the history of the NBA. Right, But before that, it's Rock fight Giannis. Before that, it's
rock fight Lebron. Before that, it's rock fight Kawhi. Guys that are great at fighting their way to spots on the floor that are close to the rim, or they can make shots with a high level of efficiency even in super physical environments, Whereas when you're a specialist in eighteen to twenty four feet off the dribble jump shots,
there's so much more variance in a postseason setting. I do think the Suns will have a game in Phoenix, probably Game three, where KD and Book both shoot over fifty percent on pull up jump shots and they beat the Nuggets, Like, that's certainly a possibility, But to do that four times out of seven.
Is so hard.
Whereas if you have a guy that all And this is the fear for the for the Lake, for the Laker Warriors series is like if they can't flip that interior shot dynamic where the Lakers are so comfortable around the rim, they're just gonna lose because that's gonna be there every single game. It's not gonna be there four times out of seven, it's in every single game. Thing there are dependable things in basketball. Defense is dependable close
to the rim, shot making is dependable. Anything from the perimeter has variants, and there's an up and down factor to that. Nikola Jokic is dependably getting great shots in this series that the Suns can't get, and that's why he's the best player in the series. And if KD can't catch just the ridiculous heater as a pull up jump shooter, they're in serious trouble. All right, Let's move over to the Eastern content a conference so congrats to Joel Embiid who won the NBA have won the NBA
MVP yesterday. I do want to give him the benefit of the doubt. To Carson's point about being a better playoff shot maker, I do want to give him a chance to demonstrate that in this series, although I'm concerned under the injury circumstances. Joel just had a very good year this year, better than any year he's had as a shot maker. So I want to see if it translates. And Brooklyn, it's just, you know, they're double teaming him a lot. He's playing down to the competition a certain extent.
You know.
I want to see him against Boston, but he's a little bit limited, Harden. I know he had a great game in Game one, but there were some schematic reasons for that as well, And so I do think that it's fool's gold if you expect him to do that five more times in the series. So my question is this, do you guys think Joel Embiid can bring enough to this series to give the Celtics or to give the Sixers a chance to beat the Celtics.
Absolutely, they have a chance. I mean they've already stolen one on the road, and I think that we continue to see the execution issues from the Celtics in the clutch Game one. A lot of it, I thought was about the consistency of their defensive effort. There's no reason for them to not win that game when they come out humming offensively like they did. And I thought the lack of adjustments, the willingness to continue to just switch everything on to Harden and him getting the looks that
he wanted all night. It's just problematic. And I don't know how many times we can see the Celtics underachieve their talent level and just be cool with it, because it is incredibly frustrating and it remains a concern.
Now.
The Sixers aren't exactly the epitome of playoff greatness. I don't think there are two stars on the planet as of this point who have underachieved more on the playoff stage relative to expectation then James Harden and Joel Embiid. This is the best version of Embiid. He absolutely has the opportunitytunity to prove that statement wrong, but up to this point he's regressed every single time he's been there. A combination of his body breaking down, his jump shot
breaking down, and his difficulty handling double teams basically. So I'm not gonna give the ultimate vote of confidence to those guys, but there's no question they can match the Celtics in terms of talent approximately, especially with the level that they're getting from some of these role guys Paul Reed de Anthony Meltin. You have two really high level
perimeter shot makers and creators in Maxi and Harden. You have a good mismatch attack or pull up jump shooter all around supporting score and Tobias Harris, and you have potentially an unstoppable one on one scorer in Joel Embiid. So I do think it's going to be a question of what level is he at, how healthy is he? Like is he going to be in the spot where it's either we double him or we die, Because if the Celtics get to that point, then they're in trouble.
Like I do think they have good personnel to double and bed with. They have good long athletes, they have good defensive personnel overall, but it's a scary spot to be in against the best spot up shooting team in the league. So I think we need to see consistently disciplined Boston defense. I think we need to see Tatum and Brown not settling, getting to the rim, getting high quality shots. We need to see them and this guardcore creating good drive and kick opportunities, and if they execute
in all those areas, then they should win. But this isn't going to be a matter of James Harden doing what he did, because I thought that was an exceptional display of shot making. Harden could not score the rim against the nets. He was nine of thirty four. I believe it was on twus in that series. Like their length, their athleticism, defensively, their help, it was too much for him.
And he got a few looks at the rim in this one, but it was mostly the step backs from deep and his ability to kill them from that mid range area to take what they were giving him in that range where he was nails. But he's not gonna do that consistently. He's not the level of downhill force that he used to be. So it is going to be about Embiid. It's gonna be about the level that he can play at and if he can be his
best version. Having stolen one on the road, the Sixers should probably win this series now, but I don't know if I'm comfortable picking that. Just because it seemed that the situation with Mbid's knee was worse than initially believed and this is like a speedier return, then that would suggest maybe. But it's just a concern for me that he's not going to be one hundred percent and if he's not, then I think the Celtics talent advantage is still significant enough to where they should win.
Now.
We are going to need to see great Joe El Embiid.
We have yet to see him really reach that peak as a shot maker in the playoffs. We have yet to see him be a great playmaker in the playoffs when they send bills at him, or just even be flat out efficient. And Embid is still a guy who's really reliant on getting to the line as well too. He's gonna have to play great now on the other side of that too.
I don't know about you, guys.
I was completely disappointed with the level of defensive engagement and effort we saw from Boston in that first game too. On what they did in James Harden, They're just it was a very soft defensive effort from Boston, and it's like very similar to the Lakers and how they take games off. It seems like Boston it just has this propensity to take quarters off, to just lose it at certain points.
I think you're right. I think Boston.
Boston scares me like no other team in the NBA does, with their propensity to just disappear at the drop of a hat like a magician, just bam. We get bad Celtics. It's turnovers, it's bad decision making, it is a complete collapse. It is bad defensive effort. We haven't seen the Celtics just be consistent in closing moments, and sixteen turnovers in
Game one was really bad too. Schematically, I want to ask you guys, I mean, do you guys think that they should doubles an Embiid or you content with Horford and Robert Williams in the paint Like I think that Horford and Robert.
Williams have done a tremendous job when I'm beating in the past. How do you defend him? How do you try to limit him in this series? What do you do to limit Joel Embiid?
If you're Boston, they do a really nice job of mixing up coverages. When I went back and watched all their matchups, I watched particularly the last two matchups they had this year, because Joel and me played really well in those two games. I thought it was good examples of how to like kind of deal with it, and there was no real rhyme or reason to it. The game where he was on fire late they double teamed him and PJ. Tucker burnt them out of the corner
with a couple of threes. But he played really well in the game with the Jason Tatum game winner, and there was a possession late in the game where he got switched onto Jalen Brown and they just let him work one on one and he ended up drawing a foul and going to the line. Sometimes they double his face, sometimes they double from behind, sometimes they double on the catch, sometimes they double off the dribble. It's very seems to be very improvisational. There doesn't seem to be any rule
set of rules that they're following. At the end of the day, like the Sixers actually scored pretty well on emb double teams on a points per possession basis, But it's not entirely telling because Joel Embiid also turns the ball over a ton, so one point, you know, two points per possession, for example, is undercut by the sheer number of transition possessions that are triggered by him turning the basketball over. Carson is right that his struggles handling
double teams are a legitimate postseason problem. You know, I I think everything comes down to Boston's defensive effort. When I went back and rewatched that first game, their offense.
Wasn't that bad.
I want to give a ton of credit to the Sixers. Two man, were they flying around defensively with their five out group in that in that final sequence, The job that Tobias Harris and PJ. Tucker were doing rotating around on the back end as they were trying to hedge with Tyree Smacks here when Tyre's would get beat off the dribble, or when they'd slip a ball screen or something like that, like every time someone got downhill, they were facing bodies in Sixers jerseys. It was a really
good defensive effort. It was more the other end of the floor where the where the Celtics just were playing pickup basketball, like, oh, let's switch this, and you know, we'll just kind of let James Harden get comfortable with the live dribble when literally there's two guys on the floor that can't shoot, so we should be pressing up on him and forcing him to drive into all of our traffic. It was just a really bad defensive effort.
Here's the thing.
I don't think Embiid's gonna have enough. And the main reason why is if it was the same Joel Embiid that we saw when he beat the Celtics earlier this year, I feel way more confident because he was in such
a good groove and he was healthy. But the reality is is with him being a little outer of rhythm by being away from the game for the past week or so, and the way that can affect his work from the foul line, and I'm not talking about free throws, I'm talking to live droubles, triple threat stuff from the foul line, and then also just conditioning and the fact that he's had to rest so much on that knee, and the fact that in order to beat the Celtics
team when they're really locked in on both ends, and Bead's gonna have to be so so so good for so long in these games. I just don't think that he has enough in terms of conditioning to make that work. All right, let's get to our last series here. So Nick's Heat. Game one Knicks played really well for a while, then the Heat come back, stagnate him with a bunch of switching, make a bunch of shots, and end up winning. R J. Barrett for whatever reason, co ops the offense
down the stretch, makes a bunch of mistakes. Game two, Sposer runs a ton of z own Jimmy Butler's out stagnates the hell out of in a different way than Finally down the stretch, they unlocked a couple of different ways to attack the zone and basically screening the top guy for Jalen bruntson so you could get some pull up jump shots, and then Julius Randall just backing his way down until he could draw multiple defenders for kickouts. I I'm gonna save my answer until you guys go.
But at one one here headed back to Miami with Jimmy and Julius both kind of banged up. Who do you favor at this point? I think it depends.
On Jimmy Butler's health, because the Miami Heat continue to overperform their talent level more than any other team in the league. And I remember there was a point, with maybe a month or so left in the regular season where I came on your show, Jason, and we talked about who's most likely to pull off an upset out East. I literally laughed at the idea that the Heat would do it, because I thought this is probably the least
talented team in the entire playoff field. And they were, and then they lost Tyler Hero and then they lost Jimmy Butler, and they continue to scheme up in ways that maximize their talent level. I think Spoe is the best coach in the league. I think their ability to create out of the pick and roll with limited athletes, but to consistently weaponize their shooting has been super impressive.
The level they've reached defensively, their ability to force the Knicks to beat them with decision making and shooting, which can be two weak points with this team, as we saw in Game one where they collapsed, especially in the
shooting category. It's so impressive, And if Jimmy is healthy, I think they have the level of big time shot making, of takeover scoring in those clutch situations and of course Jimmy is just their best perimeter defender, then I would pick them, But I think you also hit on why if he's not healthy, if he doesn't play, or if
he isn't like normal Jimmy Butler. I do Lean New York, and it is that they have the guys who can create better looks and who are more big time shot makers, and I thought that that different showed late in this game. Of course, the Knicks were forty percent from they outshot expectations there. But Brunson was able to create quality looks for himself even against the zone in this second half,
and was nails as a pull up jump shooter. Like you said, Randall's ability to attack mismatches which we saw early in this game, and then against the zone to draw help, and I thought created two great looks from deep at the end that won this game. Basically, the Heat still don't have that caliber of creation even in the aggregate, and we saw they had a lull three plus minutes no buckets in this fourth quarter. Knicks had the opposite, They had the shot makers, and they surged ahead.
So I just feel like that gap is enough to wear Eileen New York without Jimmy, But what a testament that is to the heat that it's a conversation because just such clean execution on both sides of the ball. They only have fourteen turnovers through two games here, Like it's remarkable what they do. But I do think that Randall Returning tipped that shot, creation star shot made making pendulum enough in the knicks favor to where I think they're the better team.
I still think the Knicks are the better team without Jimmy, but if Jimmy's healthy, I think I lean Miami. And that's schematically. It's what they've been able to do out of the pick and roll. Like you said, Carson, this is a Miami team that did not run a lot of pick and roll in the regular season. They're running thirty one possessions per game, the highest frequency in these playoffs.
And it's like you said, when you have all these shooters, if you sag off for any any bit, if you give these guys a sighted daylight, Duncan Robinson, Max Drus Gabe, Vincent, Tayla Martin, any of them, if you sag off for just a little bit, they're gonna earn you and they're gonna hit that three Jason, I think this is exactly what the Knicks need to do down the stretch when they're offense stagnates.
And that second quarter into the third, when.
Miami switched into that two three zone, it was like it was like the Miami Heat.
They threw out a fishing rod and the Knicks took the bait.
They were like, go ahead, take all the open threes that you want, and the Knicks hook line and sinker took it. Take a bunch of threes. That is not their bread and butter. They need to run more pick and roll. They need to get downhill, they need to collapse the defense, and they need to open up more open looks instead of just taking stagnant threes. The Knicks ran the eleventh most pick and roll in the regular season.
They are running four less pick and roll possessions per game at the second least frequency among teams remaining in the playoffs. I think when this offense stagnates, you have got guys who can get downhill, especially Jayalen Brunson, set your pick and roll ball handlers up for more success. You've got two guys who are basically eightieth percentile out.
Of the pick and roll that's a manual.
Quickly and Jalen Brunson, when your offense is stagnating, give them a screen, let them go to work against the zone, because settling for threes is not the right ideal for the Knicks. I don't want to pick this series, if I'm being honest with you guys. This scares me like no nothing else. I think the Knicks are more talented, but man, I bet against Jimmy last round and I got burnt like nothing else, and I don't want to better against Jimmy Butler. I think I'm slightly leaning Miami,
although I will say this is my final point. If the Knicks can out rebound and outwork Miami on the glass, I think that is where they hold their most distinct advantage. With Mitchell Robinson, with Isaiah harden Stein, with Josh Hart, with Julius Randall, with all these great physical athletes. If the Knicks can really really dominate the glass in this series, I think they can pull it out. But that's really
their only advantage to me. With the Jimmy Butler thing, i think I'm still slightly leaning Miami.
Though that's been the most disappointing thing for me from the Knicks is first half of Game one, they played with so much force and they've looked like the bigger, stronger, faster team, and then Miami's kind of flipped that dynamic to a certain extent in the last three halves at
least evened it out. The biggest schematic thing that's bothering me is I don't know why they aren't switching these guard pick and rolls yet with Miami, And the main reason why is, like, just from a skill development perspective, like when I'm working on pull up jump shots, there's two different kinds of shots that I work on. There are shots where I'm baking in automatic separation and then
there's shots where I need to generate separation. So, for instance, like if I'm working on pick and roll shots and I'm going to hit a move to set up a guy on a screen, and then I'm going to try to do, you know, one or two hard ribbles to my left or one or two hard dribbles to my right with a certain footwork to elevate and knock down a shot. I'm not planning on there being a defender there.
The idea there's the defenders behind me. I am practicing, and I will rep out hundreds and hundreds of these pull up jump shots expecting that I expect to get from a specific coverage, right Whereas if I'm squared up with the guy in isolation, I've got to make a move to generate separation, So I've got to cover more ground. I've got to set the hint at one direction and come back the other way. It's much more difficult, much
more taxing on the body. And so when you run a drop coverage the way that the Knicks have been running against Lowry and Vincent and a lot of these pick and rolls for Miami, you're allowing players that will struggle to generate separation against NBA level athletes to get natural separation that occurs as part of the coverage. And now they're going into a shot that they practice and rep thousands and thousands of times.
And of course, Kyle Lowry and Gave.
Vincent are knocking down some pull up jumpers that they've been making their whole damn basketball lives since they were in high school. Like switch the damn screen, make Gave Vincent and Kyle Lowry make a step back jump shot over Mitchell Robinson or Julius Randall off the bounce. This is a team that fundamentally lacks shot creation, even with Jimmy Butler let alone. Why when they don't have him, so I'd like to see. I do think the Knicks
have more talent, they have more athleticism. I just this is coaching. Mismatches are a real thing that take place in the NBA and Spolsra I think is the very best coach in the NBA, and he's done a really nice job of baiting the Knicks into their worst tendencies. Honestly, right now, had I not already made a pick, I'm like on the fed's leaning slightly towards Miami, but I haven't seen enough to flip my pre series pick, so I'm gonna stick with the Knicks for now. All right, guys,
that is all we have for today. Logan and Carson, thank you guys so much for coming on you. I think you guys do great work. Like I said again, I'm super stoked to have you guys on the team and I'm looking forward to talking a lot of basketball with you guys over the course of the next few years. As always, we appreciate you guys, and we will see you tomorrow night.
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