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All right, welcome to Hoops tonight. You're at the volume.
Happy Friday, everybody, hope all if you guys had an incredible week. Well as promised every other Friday, we have the guys from Nerd Sesh coming on the show today. I wanted to do kind of a similar type of idea to what we did last week in terms of kind of bouncing around the league and hitting a bunch of topics. But instead of doing teams today, we're going
to do players. And so I've got another game for us to do where I've got five questions about NBA players that are firmly split between two players, and we'll have to pick between one or the other.
All Right, So, without.
Any further ado, we're gonna start with you, Carson, who is most likely to go on a deep playoff run this year, Lebron James or Steph Curry.
Well, I want to start by saying that I think it's unlikely when you're talking about deep, like a final sort of run for either of these teams in probably Western Conference Finals too. But I still clearly think that it's Lebron, and the reality is just that he would have to do less superhero stuff for the Lakers to make say, Western Conference Finals run than Steph would, And the obvious reason there is that he has another superstar caliber player on his team and Anthony Davis, who could
be their best player for a series. There's nobody on the Warriors who could possibly carry that sort of load. He also has the backbone that is ad specifically defensively, and the fact that the Lakers can reach a defensive ceiling where they're dominant, and that was the driving factor of their success in last year's run. So I think that Lebron can get to a special level, but he'll be able to pick his spots more even in a playoff run where it doesn't have to be every single night.
I'm doing what Steph did in Game seven versus the Kings, because that's kind of what it feels like this Warriors team would need to make some noise. And I do think the elite size in the front court makes the Lakers match up much better against some of those other super big, physical teams in the West, the Nuggets, the Timberwolves, the Warriors are just going to be outmatched physically in those matchups. The lack of a second dynamic shot creator,
it's just too costly for them. So I have felt all year that it's I still feel, even as both these teams have struggled, that it's definitely LA.
Those are the two biggest points for me with the Lakers. Two, he has Anthony Davis to rely on, and they're just physical as hell, and their athletic as hell their biggest hill. And the Warriors, sadly like as much as I like the conglomerate of assets that they have, the bench pieces that have stepped up, you know, shout out Bepod, shoutout
KAMINGA for going crazy, shout out TJD. Like I like a lot of the Warriors pieces, but they don't have a dominant number two they are at physical disadvantages, and Anthony Davis is the best player you know this season out of the two guys like Steph just doesn't have that luxury. So I also think it's the Lakers, and I think they're more for looking at this from a trade toline perspective, I know we bring this up every
time we talk about LA. I think, considering that they are the Los Angeles Lakers, they don't have a core like the Warriors do, they are more likely to make a game changing move at.
The deadline as well.
Yeah, I think if we go back a month, it's a chasm between the two. I think, like there's it was just so much more clear that the Lakers were more primed for that type of playoff run. But some things have changed. For instance, Andrew Wiggins is starting to play a little bit better. Jonathan Kamingo over the course
of the last like three weeks is basically on. He went from not having a single consecutive stretch of twenty point games in his career to what's he on, like seven or eight of them in a row now, So like you have the rise of Jonathan kaminga even on the other end of things for the Lakers, like we went from, you know, like Jared Vanderbilt is vitally important to this team, and we got an announcement today that he's going to be out for at least a few
more weeks and that that season ending surgery is on the table for Jared Vanderbilt, which wouldn't be a death sentence for the Lakers, but would significantly cut into their margin for air. So it is closer, But that said, it's still the Lakers. It's a lot of specific reasons. They have more star power. Like you said, there's more secondary shot creation support for Lebron James, and even extending into this the typical stuff that we know matters the
most when we get to the NBA playoffs. So, for instance, the Lakers have the size to match up with a lot of teams that other teams do not. The Lakers have more superstar talent than the Warriors have. The Lakers have even just among the guys in their rotation that are younger, they're younger players with playoff experience. Now, Ruby Hachimura was there for the deep playoff run, Austin Reeves was there for the deep playoff run. A lot of
these guys like Pozemski, fray Jackson, Davis. They're like Kaminga, barely played in last year's playoff runs. So like, I think they're just more primed. Even if we do acknowledge that that trend is flipping, and I want to be clear that trend is flipping, because I actually see the Warriors going on a Lakers esque second half run for
a bunch of specific reasons. One, they have the fifth easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, which, especially if you factor in the Western Conference where just I was digging into the numbers the other day, the West is just so much deeper with talent from the top to the bottom. It was even I can't remember the exact numbers, but I pulled up like the head to head records, and the Western Conference teams have like have like a thirty wins in the positive over five hundred over Eastern Conference
teams had to head this year. Like, the West is just deeper, and the Warriors have had a hillacious schedule to start the year with Draymond playing in only twenty of the games, and so I think there's a lot of potential for the Warriors to go on that type of run.
But again, when you get down to like.
The playoff groupings, and it's like it's probably gonna be Steph Clay, Andrew Wiggins, Johnathan Kaminga, and Draymond Green. It's just with some of the decline we've seen from Klay Thompson, with Jonathan Kaminga being so young, it's just hard to pick them in a series the way that you can kind of see the Lakers kind of getting to that point. I want to be clear though, like both of these teams, they're both kind of poised to head into that play
in tournament range. And our top two teams in the Western Conference of the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Minnesota Timberwolves, two teams that are extremely good. And I'm not trying to sit here and undercut the good that they bring
to the table. But between some of the limitations that we've talked about with the Timberwolves and some of their late game execution, their clutch offense has been garbage in the last month or so, and then you look at the Thunder and some of the limitations they have as being a young and small team. It's kind of crazy because I agree with you, Carson, both of these teams are seemingly in worse position than they were last year. Yeah, it's like you get into that seven eight slot and
you have a chance. It's like, man, I don't think it's off the table. So before we move on, I want to give you guys one more follow up. Do you think it's more likely than not that either team pulls off a first round upset or more likely than not that they both lose in the first round or miss the playoffs entirely.
I think it is more likely than not, if we're viewing them as a collective, probably that they lose in the first round or miss entirely, just because I'm struggling to see it with the Warriors right now, and there is a lot still that I like, and I know that their record is poor, but by net rating like they've been a better team than the Lakers. They've had some of the worst late game execution and also luck
they've lost so many close games this year. They have dealt with Draymond's absence for an extended period, and they have been looking different as of late because of the dynamic changer that is Jonathan Kaminga. But I still see some irreversible issues with them and when I look at a team like the Thunder, they're more athletic, they have
more dynamic shot creators, they're defending at a higher level. Yeah, they're less experienced, but I just think Steph would have to go supernova, and when SGA is opposite you and he has the best supporting cast, that's just tough formula. I still think the Lakers have the upside to beat a whole lot of teams out West, not the Nuggets. I think the Clippers would be a strong favorite. But outside of that, Lebron and Ad and they have much
more secondary shot creation. As you mentioned from the perimeter, Jason, if you're picking out the two dudes outside of that star tier who, it's like, Hey, run me a pick and roll, float my offense for six minutes. You want Austin Reeves and you want D'Angelo Russell more than you want anybody on.
That Warriors roster after Steph.
So unfortunately, I just think the path is too long for the Warriors right now.
Only crazy.
I don't know if we get those hypothetical matchups, I think I might take LA and Golden State to win to upset them both. I don't know, do the experience factor really matters to me there. And you say that it is a tall task to ask stuff to do that, But I mean, is Steph giving us any reason to doubt him? Like, I don't know, Man, I think in that hypothetical matchup, I would pick the Lakers and the Warriors to both upset those young teams. Man, I'm gonna I'm gonna ride with the old guard.
The tough one would be the Warriors the like I think they would need to catch OKC in particular to get that first round upset. But I think that's on the table specifically, just because I really do think Golden State would have just a huge experience advantage there. Draymond Green too, You could just see him getting all into the gamesman ship in the early phase of this series to like snatch chet Holm, grind of his confidence, and
to do some things along those lines. I would lean slightly more towards it's more likely than not that we get one of those teams to upset somebody in the first round. All right, moving on to our next question, who has more pressure on them in this playoff runt? Jannison tenne Kumpo or Jason Tatum. We'll start with you logan, I would argue.
That Jason Tatum maybe has more pressure on his shoulders than any other player in all of basketball this season coming into the playoffs, considering his shortcomings in the playoff stage that we've seen in late game scenarios where he has a lock of lack of shot dynamicsm where he has struggled when there's a lot of ball pressure applied to him, where he's crumbled in these big moments.
To put it, you know, to put it simply.
And you couple that with the fact that Boston has really gone all in on this core and they've invested more into you know, this top five of this lineup. They've got chrisoft Worzeingis, They've got Drew Holliday, They've got Derek White, they've got Jaylen Brown.
Point.
If the Celtics don't get it done this year, it's a major disappointment, and all of that blame is going to fall on the shoulders of Jason Tatum. Considering the fact that Jannis has already climbed the mountain, you know, I mean, Giannis can have as many Jannis can have as many late game gaffs and poor you know, executions in the clutch.
He got it done.
That's all that really matters. He had a fifty piece on the biggest age. We saw Tatum in the finals, and I'm sure he had a couple of good games, but they crumbled against the Warriors. They had that series in the back. That's his legacy until he changes it, right, they crumbled in Game seven against the Miami Heat. That's the Celtic's reputation, and that's Jason Tatum's reputation. Considering how stacked the roster is, I think Tatum has more to
prove in these playoffs than anybody else in basketball. I think he's got the kind of the way to the world on his shoulders. Man, he's Atlas right now.
I agree, And I think that Logan makes a great point. Once you have climbed the mountain once, and especially once you've done it in the fashion that Yiannis did. And I'm not talking about the run in terms of competition, because you have the Nets down basically two of their three stars, they had James Harden barely walking around, and then the Hawks and a Suns team that was good
but maybe not totally championship ready. It's not about that murderers row that he had to go through, but it's about the level that he played individually, Like Jiannis was unbelievable in that run and specifically in the finals. That puts you in a different tier in terms of I think the margin that you have and last year was ugly, but he still has more margin. The expectations are different
also because he has done that and Tatum hasn't. But Tatum is the guy who a lot of people, it seems, want to crown as like one of the kings of the league, right alongside jokicin Jannis, and I don't think that he's quite on that level as a player, and he does not have that sort of playoff resume, and especially this year, he has everything everything going in his favor. The Celtics have been overwhelmingly talented for the last couple of years. This is a different level though. Man we
say this often on our show. They have five All Star caliber basket players basketball players on the same team. This is not just the most talented starting five in the league. If you take away the number one guy, the Nuggets starting lineup is really good, but the two through five are not as loaded as what Boston has. It's one of the most talented starting fives of this century,
like legitimately in that top tier. And so when you have the reputation where we do see the tremendous variance from him game to game because of his reliance on pull up threes where he's not always the most efficient. When you think about some of the turnover issues that he had in the finals run, especially in late game situations, the offense just sort of devolving and Tatum is at the center of that. Was really bad in Game seven against the Heat, was bad in Game six against the
Warriors in the finals. It just feels like he is a guy who has all of the perfect storm circumstances coming together for this to just be a pressure cooker. Like pressure's on him in basically every sense. He has the overwhelming advantages and he hasn't proven it. This is the year he's got to do it.
Yeah, it's funny because I think Giannis definitely has some pressure, Like, yeah, he's he's won one playoff series since he owaysted the trophy in an Eastern Conference, by the way, that's pretty top heavy, and usually if you have a decent regular season, you have a very winnable first round matchup. Now, the important context is there was no Chris Middleton in twenty twenty two, and they lost to a Celtics team that I didn't think they had much of a chance to beat.
And to Giannis's credit, he was amazing in that series. And then obviously he missed games in twenty twenty three with an injury. That said, he didn't play well in that series against Miami, and a lot of the same issues that plagued him before he was a champion rose to the surface. He was turning the basketball over a lot, he was missing a ton of free throws, and then that lack of any sort of reliable over the top shot, whether it's a hook shot or a little short jumper
or whatever it is. Those were big things that rose to the surface when they lost to Miami last year. Since then, Nikole Jokich has overtaken him by some clearly discernible margin. I actually think I was actually thinking about this the other day. I think I think the lead that Jokic has over the league has become pretty significant all of a sudden, when you kind of look around and you start to really parse out the strengths and
weaknesses of some of these guys. But then you know, for Jannis, they go and trade for a bona fide superstar guard.
To help him with all of that stuff.
So, like, I want to be clear, like if Yannis loses in the first or second round, that's.
Not a good look.
So like there's definitely some pressure on him, and I would I think we all agree that the Bucks, they have the chance, they have the potential to win the title, and they have the potential to lose in that first or second round. They're very much a like a high floor or a high ceiling low floor type of team. That said, none of that even comes close to acknowledging the fact that Yannis is a champion and Jason Tatum is not. And when you really dig into it, I
one hundred percent agree. I put in my notes plays in the most talented starting five in the league in my opinion. He's about to turn twenty six years old here in early March. That's the age where you start to expect a young star to kind of break through in the play and Boston's gonna like run away with the number one overall seed. They are two point five games up on the second seed, right now, and they
have an insanely easy remaining schedule. Their opponents for the remainder of their schedule have only won forty five point three percent of their games, just comically easy. And so the other thing that kind of that kind of is is showing, I would say, a point of pretty significant pessimism. For me, one of the biggest discouraging elements of this season from Jason Tatum has been, even though he put on all this additional muscle, leaning so strongly into the
pull up jump shot. And so I wanted to give you guys some numbers because we had a stretch there late December early January where he had it going and it was like, Oh, is he finally gonna break through and this is gonna be like the.
Start of what all that hard work was.
For, is Jason Tatum becomes this dynamic pull up shooter and then in ten games in his last ten games, just thirty three for ninety three on pull up jumps shots, just zero point nine to one points per attempt, basically where he's been for years. And then the biggest concerning part there is ninety three attempts in ten games. Yeah, and that's nine point three per game. And so here's the last stat that I want to give you, guys. Seven players in the NBA this year have attempted at
least four hundred pull up jump shots. Jason Tatum four hundred at forty six point six percent effective field goal percentage, Anthony Edwards four hundred and thirteen on forty four point three percent EFFECTI field goal percentage or another similar issue. And that kind of goes to a lot of the stuff I've talked about with Minnesota and like their potential to lose a series, they shouldn't lose just because of poor decision making by their primary shot creators. But this
is where it gets interesting. Sga four hundred and forty attempts fifty three percent effective field goal percentage. Devin Booker four hundred and forty one attempts fifty two percent effective field goal percentage. Trey four hundred fifty ninettempts fifty two percent effective filgal percentage. Jalen Brunson four hundred and seventy six attempts fifty three percent effective filgal percentage. Luka Doncic five hundred and sixty attempts fifty one percent effectiveilical percentage.
You know, what's a point of commonality between those five names?
Throw a guards there.
None of them are six nine freak athletes that are just completely jacked. Like that's the difference. Like Shay has good athletic tools, but he is not Anthony Edwards, like Devin Booker as a two guard is a middle of the pack athlete, if not a little bit below average. Trey Young is not an athletic guard. Jalen Brunson is not an athletic guard. Luka Doncic is a ground bound forward. They need to rely on those types of shots and they're way better at them. And Jason Tatuman, if you
look at it, that's half of his shot diet. He's going into games in actively hunting and pursuing these shots and he can't make them at a high enough clip for to make sense for him to do so. And so to me, like when we came into this season, we all agreed that the number one thing that mattered as it pertained to Boston and their ability to win
the title was going to be offensive process. Could they be deliberate enough to to get the right shots consistently enough to win the against against another team that's on their tier, a team like Milwaukee, a team like Denver, a team like the Clippers, right, and like that to me is just screaming like he doesn't get it. He
didn't get it. And like once again last night, I'm watching him and he had a couple of tough ones and it's like I'm watching him, I'm like, dude, you were the best player on this floor by a mile, by a mile, and you're and you're actively hunting some of the toughest shots that a basketball player can take in a game. It was it was definitely discouraging. But I'm off my soapbox sorright, So let's move on to
our next topic. Who is more likely to perform well in this year's postseason run, Damian Lillard or James Harden. Let's start with you, Carson.
What I think is difficult about this question is that they're in such different context and so it's like, how do we evaluate performing well when James Harden is going to be a third option who is matching up with teams third best perimeter defenders, and whose primary responsibility is going to be to facilitate the offense really and then pick his spots right attacking maybe some of those weaker defenders in isolation and pick and roll and whatnot, as
compared to Damian Lillard, who has to be not just his team's second best player overall, but maybe their best offensive player period if that team wants to make noise in the playoffs, and in terms of half court offensive creation, by far their number one guy. You talked about how Yiannis melted down under those circumstances last year against a really great one on one defender like Bam who can match up with him physically. That lack of shot making
can hurt him. The eternal can hurt him. As you said, get into line. He can't convert in those situations. It's gonna be about what Dame can do as this great pick and roll shot maker and facilitator. So they do have different roles, and I have been concerned by some stuff with Dame as of late. I think the lack of rim pressure. He hasn't looked quite as quick as we're used to. His perimeter shooting has not been what
we're used to for a lot of this year. He's just thirty four percent from deep and Harden has been doing really well in his specific role. But I would just rather have Dame for a playoff run. I think that there is certainly more upside. I still can see a takeover just flamethrower shooting run from him, and I can see him creating a bunch of opportunities for his teammates because of the stress that he puts on defenses and demanding the guys come out thirty feet to guard
the pick and roll. Harden, I think, you know, is gonna fall within some range, and maybe he is a good efficient third option this year, but we've just seen too many times before when he tries to carry that heavier burden as a volume score, he falls apart for various reasons. Last year, it was real struggles to get to the rim and then against athletic defenses, an inability to finish at the rim where he shot like thirty
percent in that playoff run. It is the reliance on formulaic offense, which got better in last year's playoff run. He was taking more mid range jumpers, but historically has been an issue. It's the reliance on getting to the line when you're not gonna get those same calls. For all those reasons, Harden has consistently struggled to be the same player in a playoff run that he is in the regular season. This year could be different because he
doesn't have that same burden. But I just think Dame is better, and I think that Dame has much more potential to go on like a legitimately Torrent run where you look at and you say, yeah, he was the reason that they made it this far.
Well, said Carson, I mean it really does come down to like reputation. For me, Am I gonna go with one of the biggest, you know, playoff chokers, the guy who continuously lets us down? Or Am I going to go with a guy who has a reputation as a stone cold killer. I do agree with you, It's drastically different situations, but I'm gonna go with the killer. I believe when the chips are down that Dame's a gamer and on the biggest stage, is Dame ups his game
another level. This has been a down year for Dame, but I think on the biggest age there's just a level of trust and confidence that I have in Dame to step his game up.
So I'm going with Dame.
Yeah, it's interesting because Carson, I think you did a really nice job of breaking down the difference between the two guys and what they're expected to do for their teams. Like, I don't think there's any question that Dame is probably a better player, you know, in terms of just like what he can do to help a team in the playoffs.
But I think James Harden.
Just has much easier job on both ends of the floor. By the way, like even at the like Dame actually needs to be a decent perimeter defender for Milwaukee to kind of reach their ultimate goals. He's got to be engaged on that end of the floor, like James Harden. They literally can just hide him because Terrence Man can guard on the perimeter, because Paul George can guard in the perimeter, because Kawhi Leonard can guard on the perimeter.
He's gonna consistently get his significantly easier perimeter defense assignment. And then when he has the ball, he's going to catch a significantly lesser perimeter defender in the way that Dame is going to get the best of the guys, right. And then one of the things that I thought was really interesting, here's a stat for you guys. It's interesting last year when James Harden shot below forty percent from
the field. The Sixers were seven and eight in the regular season and three and four in the postseason, in large part because like they needed him, they needed him to be a guy who was consistently productive on the offensive end of the floor. This year, the Clippers are ten and six when James Harden shoots below forty percent of the field, and one of those losses was in that early stretch of the season when they were just
like unbelievably terrible. And so I think it's it's one of those things where it gets it gets complicated because I think these two players kind of get lumped in together, and I actually want to ask a follow up regarding that, but like, like the reality is is, like I think we could come out of this postseason run thinking James Harden is a better playoff player because he has an
easier job. And it's a great example of how when we have these kinds of conversations, it's important to acknowledge the difference in just what a player is expected to do for their team relative to some of their peers around the league. It was one of the biggest things that bothered me back in like the like the twenty eighteen finals or twenty seventeen finals, it's like, oh kd outpit played Lebron. It's like he's not nearly asked to do as much as what Lebron is asked to do
for his team. It's not even in the same ballpark. And so those sorts of things need to be kind of discussed when we're getting into those weeds. But before we move on, who do you think has the more impressive playoff resume, Damian Lillard or James Harden. We'll start with you, Carson.
I honestly think that it's Harden, and I'm about as low on playoff Harden as I feel like any reasonable person would be. But the reality is Logan you talk about the killer thing with Dame, and there is this pervasive narrative that Dame is just a dude who steps up to the big moment. But in terms of playoff production, like, it's not like he's elevated his game from what we've seen in the regular season. In fact, he's generally been inferior.
He had that awesome first round series in twenty twenty one where he was like unstoppable. That's kind of the only time that I've looked at Dame's playoff performance and been like, oh boy, you really showed them. He's had some rough series. Other than that, his career efficiency in the postseason is significantly down, and Harden, yes has disappointed, But it's about expectations to some extent, like he's coming from these monumentally great, all time offensive regular seasons and
then he can't sustain that. And so if he gives you thirty and eight on say, fifty nine percent true shooting instead of thirty five and eight on whatever sixty four percent truth shooting, you're like, that guy fell off. He fell off relative to expectations, but he's still at his prime. Was just a nightmare to with an isolation. So the things that brought him down are very, very real, and they're important. And I will always stand on the side of regular season James Harden is not equivalent to
playoff James Harden. There's tangible reasons for that we've seen time and again. So don't elevate him into the greatest offensive players of all time conversation. But versus Dame, I would argue that he's actually done more impressive things in the postseason.
I honestly think I go with Dame. I understand what you're saying, Carson. I mean to me, Harden's style of play is always going to or when he was at his apex, that style of play was always going to suffer in the playoff context.
I think Dame was always more.
Of a seamless, you know, easy offense for his team. And I also think that Harden's teams were always better. I think Damien was elevating Portland rosters that weren't that great to get there. Dame is not a great playoff performer, but I would take Dame's moments what's your what's your?
And I hate that.
I feel like that's like a little bit of a cop out answer, but like, yeah, what's James Harden's moment.
I don't know what James Harden's moment.
I means. James Harden's moment, I guess is like the block shot, being the closest guy to beating the Warriors in a playoff series for a half decade, when Dame was getting bounced in the first round and then he made it one time and without KD they washed him. I don't like, it's not Jimmy Butler we're talking about it. Yeah, Dame has this aura where people are like he rises to the occasion, he's a different player, but he's really not. And Harden may regress, but Harden's regressing again from all
time regular season player. Dame is coming from like fringe top ten guy, and he's kind of remaining fringe top ten guy. I don't know.
I think context matters a little bit with that too. Like I said, with his team, I don't think Dame's teams were and Dame wasn't as good as Harden at his apex, you know what I mean, Harden was the better engine. I don't know, Dame has better moments and I don't know, Man, there's a the clutch factor. I don't trust James Harden. I don't trust James Harden at all.
Man.
I've seen James Harden crumble. I haven't seen Dame like completely collapse.
This is a tough one because like that, once again, there's a lot of context. Like you're right, dames moments are better, and he's definitely been bigger, better and like the.
Bigger of the games.
But then again, like James Harden has more consistently been you know, like he's a more accomplished regular season player, he's usually led teams to greater success. But then it's also important to acknowledge that I like, I don't think Dames ever had a team like the like that twenty eighteen Rockets team.
I just don't think he has.
I don't think he's had a team that's had Air Gordon and Chris Paul and Clincapella and athleticism on the wings that can defend. And like, I think it's complicated, And I would say in terms of actual tangible accomplishment, I lean towards towards James James Harden. But in an in a vacuum, if I could pick a player for their prime to put on like any basketball team, I think I'd probably still take Dame over James Harden, which
I think is the final differentiator. All Right, two more and then we're gonna get out of here, starting with you, Logan, who is more likely to win the Western Conference? Luka, Doncic or Kevin Durant.
I'm gonna say Kevin Durant. And I really like the Dallas Mavericks, guys. The Dallas Mavericks are one of my favorite teams to watch, simply because they have Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. They are awesome when they are on, but whow are they ugly when they are bad?
Man?
The MAVs frustrate me beyond belief in their bad games when it's the Grant Williams show. When it's the role players suck on Both of these teams is what I'm getting at.
Both the role players just completely blow and I don't have any confidence in them to do anything.
Like Phoenix just has more top star power and I can imagine kd and Beale and Book going crazy. They just have more top guys like that really is the sole difference for me. I can imagine Luca and Kyrie getting hot, but I cannot imagine the role players playing beyond their means. The MAVs are just too far away. Like if you're giving Grant Williams big minutes, man, I'm sorry, dude,
your team's not doing anything. You're relying on Josh Green and the boys, and there's just there's not enough there. You need Dante Xim, you need Derek Jones, I'm sorry. And the Son's role players aren't that great either, because the Suns still have their fatal flaws. The reliants on pull up jump shooting. I think Nurkic man, Carson, you were right, dude. I was so wrong, Dude. I tried to go to battle for nurk Bro. I tried to go to battle for nirk and I can't do it anymore.
Dude.
He gets his he flips his hips, and that man is running in cement back to the hoop. He is just a mobile.
So like, I'm not confident in either of these teams. But to me, the MAVs just don't have that third guy and the Sun's due again. That feels like a copound answer because the Suns are very flawed, Like I can see them getting smoked defensively because a Nurkic. I can see them being way too relying on pull up jumpers and notching ninety five to one hundred points in a couple of games because they just go cold from there.
They don't get enough pressure on the rim. But they got d Booking KD, and they got Beal they can rely on in certain games. And they got Grayson Allen who's been great as a spot up guy and I think he could swing a series. And there's just a few more role guys in Phoenix that I trust, so marginally I would go with the Suns, but I don't have a ton of faith in either of these teams.
I'm with you.
The one argument for the MAVs would be that Luca's very likely going to be the best player on the floor in a theoretical matchup between these two or he's just the best player between these two teams, and in playoff settings has been monumentally great. Has taken his unbelievable regular season level and then gotten up another level. Part of that maybe just from insane pull up shooting runs, but there is the physical imposition he gets where he
wants on the floor. He's one of the three best playmakers in the league, and so single handedly he can carry you to some pretty special stuff. But it is different when you're talking about a team that has two top ten players in my opinion, in Kadie and Book, both of whom can absolutely light you on fire. Kyrie is still an unbelievable offensive player, but I think that there's a level of separation between those guys and him.
And then it is the third dynamic creator off the dribble, the third big time shot maker, the third guy who can pressure a defense and also play make in Bradley Beal, who doesn't exist for the MAVs. The Suns just have more overwhelming offensive strengths. They do have issues logan. You mentioned the lack of rim pressure, settling for mid range jumpers, but they have just the personnel advantages and the spot up shooting with Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon, guys who
have had really, really good pure shooting seasons. And then if you look at the other side of the ball, it's not exactly a beauty pageant, like the Suns are gonna be okay defensively though, and the MAVs have just been bad. The MAVs are an awful rebounding team. The Sons have been quite a good rebounding team. I just
think they are the better all around basketball team. But I don't think it's likely that either of these teams make a deep run because primarily of my concerns on the defense side of the ball, and then because of some little things offensively.
Yeah, it's funny if you look at the stats, it's pretty clearly Phoenix just based on the stats. And I want to dive into this a little bit. Since Dallas started eight and two, they're eighteen and twenty in their last thirty eight games. In that span, that's been the nineteenth best record in the league, seventeenth in offense, twenty third in defense, twenty sixth in defensive rebounding. They've had a lot of injuries. I want to make sure that
that's clear. They've had fourteen different players start games for them this season. But when Luca and Kyrie both play, they're twelve and ten, which is pretty mediocre. On the Suns front, Bradley Beal has played in eighteen straight games. The Suns are thirteen and five in those eighteen games, which is the fourth best record.
In the league.
They have the third best offense in the league over that span, fourteenth in defense, twenty first defensive rebounding. Not good, but better than Dallas has been. So the standings and some of the numbers very clearly point the MAVs and Suns as very different teams. But it does get complicated when you start to look at the playoff setting. Because I agree to put it in my notes, I think
Luca is the best player on either team. I think he's a devastating playoff player with the unique capability to strangle the pace, to make opposing stars lose confidence too. He has uniquely different from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. He has the ability to really physically impose his will on an NBA playoff game. I think all of that is vitally important. And so this is where I get into the kind of playoff setting and I want to
pitch this back to you guys for a second. So if we agree that the core five for Phoenix is going to be matchup dependent, but it's gonna probably be Bradley Beal, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Grayson Allen, and Eric Gordon, with probably Nurkic in for Eric Gordon against teams that have bigger centers, and then they'll probably go small against other teams. The core five for Dallas, we're probably getting Derek Lively and Grant Williams in that four or five spot.
Right then it's probably gonna be one of either Tim Hardaway Junior, Josh Green, or Derek Jones Junior in that three spot, depending on again, once what the matchup is. This year, they've leaned a lot on Tim Hardaway Junior in clutch time, which leads me to believe that they probably go that direction.
I'd probably go with.
Josh Green or Derek Jones Jr. If it was my decision. But it's gonna be one of those guys. And then it's Kyrie and Luca. And when you really get down to it, and you scale minutes up and you lean heavily on those groups, and we acknowledge that there's a diminishing return with a third star on the floor that's a ball handler and kind of like a heavy ball handling type of system.
Let's pitch it back to you, guys.
We'll start with you, with you Carson, When you really dig into those five guys, which of those two lineup groupings do you think has more capability of beating one of the higher level playoff teams in the Western Conference.
It's an interesting question because in some ways that MAVs lineup checks more different boxes in that you still have your two shot creators, but then on the wings you have a bit more physicality. At the very least, you have your hyper athletic big who can impact the game more defensively and as a rim finisher than Old Nurk, who oftentimes look like he's stuck in cement, as Logan mentions.
So From that perspective, it's interesting because you think, if the Suns are gonna get kind of bullied no matter how good they are offensively, can they get enough stops against another great team? And maybe the formula is and again, both these teams are flawed defensively, but it does feel like in terms of the physicality arena, the MAVs match up a little bit better. Maybe that's their advantage, and then Luca goes nuclear, But to me, the principle is
the same. I just think that's a more skilled offensive lineup for the Suns. There's more ball handling, the more dynamic shooting. Overall, neither of these teams are gonna win a series on the back of their defense. So I would take the team that I think has the better path to to elite offense.
I would take Phoenix for two reasons. One, if the Mavericks are forced to play the michelin Man Grant Williams, they are doomed.
Oh my god, they're done.
For Two, that's Batman bro.
Put some respect on that dude, Logan.
Logan has just been just just straight slander in this episode.
Williams leaves is such a Bozoe man, all right, the second reason I know that in theory, Dallas has the personnel to be a good deal. I get what you guys are saying with Grant's a little bit of a stockier for should be able to match up physically well. Derek Jones Junior has bounced. Derek Lively is a great athlete. I've seen two really bad games, and I don't know if there were injuries in these games, but there's two games to me from Dallas that stick out like sore thumbs.
The one where Luca went crazy against Atlanta and Atlanta kept pace that entire game. And then the other game that I point to is when Dallas played Phoenix. Man I was talking trash to all of my friends who are Phoenix fans. I was like, oh, dude, Luca owns your poverty franchise. You guys stink. And then the Suns literally just came back and blew the Mavericks out. Like you can have your qualms about the Sun's defense, I don't think Dallas's defense is in a different enough tier.
I don't think their athletic advantages are enough to really make a meaningful difference to me. I think they're you know, uh, they're wet paper bag defenses. Man, you know, they just you tear right through.
Them, and they're slower on the perimeter. Dallas, they may be stronger, but they're slower.
They are I'm gonna I'm gonna take Luca and the MAVs.
I think let's use this as example. I don't think either team has really any chance to beat Denver, but let's look at like a Clippers matchup, Like the Clippers would just play Suns basketball and do it better and beat them the I could see Luca strangle the pace, playing them into their worst tendencies, physically imposing his will on the game, picking on matchups like, I don't think either of these teams are that good or that either of them really have that type of you know, I
should say not. They both have championship potential, but like I mean like real, like you know, like substantial championship potential. But if I had to pick one guy to notch an upset in a later round and maybe just sneak his way in, I'm gonna take Luca in that group. But I think I think a lot of people are off of his scent after last year's uh missing the playoffs, and I just I think I'm on the fence between the two, and given that circumstance, I'm gonna lean towards Luca.
All right, last one before we get out of here, We'll start with you, Carson, who would you rather build a franchise around if you were starting from scratch right now? Anthony Edwards or shake Gil just Alexander.
This is a real heartbreaker of a question, And in fact, we did before this season like to top ten guys twenty five and hunderd to build a franchise around. I believe I had them either three and four, four and five, and I had ANT one spot above SGA. I think I'm gonna flip now, Oh did I have SGA above?
Had we both had SGA four? ANT five?
All rightect, I never switch up. I'm sticking with SGA then, And I think that what's talk about this conversation is we are viewing a more final version of SGA. It just in that he's a couple years older. I'm not saying either of these dudes are totally what they're going to be for the rest of their careers, but I
think that Ant still has more room for growth. But there's a big gap between these two is basketball players right now, there's a big gap, and I think the key advantages for me with SGA are, first of all, the level of control that he imposes over a basketball game, the ability out of pick and roll to dictate the pace, to playmake at a really high level. He just is the captain of an offense in a way that Ant isn't right now, and I'm not sure sure he will be.
I also think you look at the versatility and shot making that SGA has, it's legitimately unbelievable. He's one of the hardest dudes in the league to stay in front of, not because of straight line speed, but because of maybe the nastiest change in pace that I've ever seen. Nobody shifts gears like SGA. But then he is also one of the most devastating mid range shooters in the league. He's so great at using physicality to create space there.
He has this ballerina body control where he's just going to get where he wants on the floor, and at the same time, like he's been crazy efficient out of the post when he wants, He's got such good footwork and body control down there. He just has a mastery of the skilled scoring and doing that in various different ways that ANT doesn't have. And these guys are both
elite athletes, it's just different. Ant is like your prototypical ninety ninth percentile strength, ninety nine percentile explosiveness, ninety nine percentile vertical ability. SGA's athleticism, to me, is in the shiftiness. It's in the balance, the body control. He just does stuff in the paint navigating that nobody else on the planet can. And then I think if you look at the defensive side of the ball, I think if they
have very similar potential. I do like SGA a bit more as a help defender, and I think that what we've seen from him in terms of defensive playmaking this year has been super impressive. His length can just be game changing at times. ANT has that stronger base, So it's similar, But I do think it comes down to the like all around dominant, versatile scoring plus really high
end playmaking. With SGA, ANT, I think you have the crazy rim pressure, you have the pull up shooting stretches, but you just don't have that sort of all around polish and I'm not sure if you will on the level of SGA. But I think both these guys are perennial MVP candidates for years and years.
Yeah, I think if you're ever in this scenario, you were blessed as an NBA franchise. If these were the two guys you were picking between, I'm actually gonna flop here, Carson. I also had SGA four and ANT five, And I think you make a great point. Sga is definitely more realized, you know, to his full potential. I don't think Ant's done yet, And I just think the physical level of pressure that he is going to be able to put
on the rim. I think that the special kind of strong, vertical quick athlete that he is.
I just think that.
I don't think he's done. I mean, I think we're gonna see him just become effectively unstoppable. And I think his game Sga, I think.
Is more tailored to the playoffs right now.
Like if you're asking me for this season, what guy do I want more to go on a run? There's a lot more polished from that SGA. I trust him way more as an offensive engine and initiator, but I see a different ceiling because of ants athletic advantages. That being said, I think you make a good point I don't know if Ant's ever going to be the I don't think and is capable of becoming the kind of pull up and unstoppable shooter that SGA is in the wing, he is one of the most special in the league.
But I'm going to take those physical advantages. I just think that matters a little more. I think that Ant is going to be an unstoppable tank and if he can couple that with elite pull up jump shooting, weaponizing his rim pressure into playmaking, like, I just think he's got He's already great, but I think there is even more room to grow with Anthony Edwards.
So I'm gonna take Ant the the you.
Know, kind of important phrase that kind of dictates this conversation is starting a franchise with Because a couple of caveats, I do think SGA is a better basketball player right now, and I do think that he would navigate a playoff environment a little bit better than it right now.
I do think that they are very very.
Different archetypes of players, and so it can also get complicated in the sense that, like some of the stuff that Anthony Edwards is not good at is kind of natural for his archetype. And some of the stuff that SGA is not good at is kind of natural for his archetype, and so on and so forth. The here's
the big difference for me. I think Anthony Edwards is not only on a trajectory in the bigger picture that I think could take him to a significantly higher level than he is now, but he also has the I
think he's a more natural fit alongside other stars. Anthony Edwards is actually a decent off ball scorer, and I mean that off the move, like coming off of off ball screens, cutting to the rim, and he's just a much better catch and shoot player, which is a significant advantage when it comes to playing alongside other players around
the league. SGA has just a tiny bit of that, like heliocentric When the ball's in my hands and I'm in rhythm, everything looks good, but then my value tends to take a dip when I'm not on the ball as much as much. And then everything, everything with Anthony Edwards is a pretty strong indicator of him being a great shooter in the long run. For starters his last twenty five games, because remember at the beginning of this year,
he was kind of a little bit rough around the edges. Offensively, Anthony everags the last twenty five game game twenty seven points per game, five rebounds, five assists, forty nine percent from the field, forty one percent from three to eighty four percent from the line, and he's on like pretty decent volume from three. He's taking something like six threes a game over that span, So like that's a that's a third of the season that he's been a high volume,
forty percent three point shooter. And like you see it in the foul shooting, you see it in the hot stretches of pull up shooting. Like I think when we fast forward a few years, he's going to be a devastating combination of downhill force and power with pull up shooting. And again, like if I'm starting a franchise, I know that I can bring in another high usage offensive player and that Ant's going to be able to kind of like fit in with him well and make that all work.
I also think, you know, Carson, you mentioned Shay's off ball defense, and I agree, he's excellent instincts and length and ability to kind of just get in and make plays. But the important distinction there is, like Aunt's still not very good at that stuff off the ball, and and like I think there's a version of this five years from Like when I think about twenty seven year old Anthony Edwards, I think about a guy that could be the best player in the world. That's the potential that
I think he has. Whereas like Shay, I think he kind of is already pretty close to what his ceiling is at this point, and there are some areas where he can prove specifically off the ball, right, But like, to me, Aunt is already pretty close to as good as Shay is, and he's got so much more room for improvement. And then you guys, know me just in general, I talked about this with Luca versus KD, but like, give me the guy who can physically impose as well
on the game. Like like that, that, to me is is such a huge element to winning in the playoffs. Like you can just imagine Ant being this ridiculous matchup attacking back to the basket guard in the postseason, and like it just he thrives in like ultra physical environments and you know, I think I think it that to
me is just the differentiator in the long run. I do have one last question before we get out of here, and we'll start with you logan like, are you expecting Shay to have a drop off inefficiency and production in this postseason or do you think he'll be able to sustain it.
That's a great question.
I think you made a great point, Jason about him being a heliocentric player. I think that in that archetype, I think those players are just always more susceptible because I mean, just think about it.
I mean, your every.
Possession you're having to play defense, you're on ball, then on the other side of the ball, you're got the ball in your hands, like you're just gonna get inherently tired. Had a series who at a game it's just gonna wear you down. So I think he is more susceptible to that. I don't know, man, I don't think I could ever predict Sga to Like Faull, he's so dynamic,
he can get to whatever spot he wants. Now, I think that's the big factor is that game five, Game six, Game seven, Is he gonna be downtrodden?
Is he gonna be worn out? That scares me.
At the end of regular games where he's playing forty minutes, is he gonna be worn out.
I don't know.
That's the one area where I think he could maybe be susceptible to Luwells, to falling off. But in terms of shot diet, decision making, shots he gets to. There are very few players in the NBA that I expect their games will translate better to the postseason because SGA can do it from everywhere. He's a great playmaker, He does everything. My only concern is just him getting really worn out and tired from having to carry the burden, you know, that entire offensive burden.
Yeah, I would expect SGA to be a guy who actually scales really well to the playoffs. And I think, do you make a great point, Jason, in an advantage that Ant has and a lot of the great playoff risers have, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leondard, they are dudes who can impose themselves with strength. The ultimate advantage of that is that you get to your spots no matter what
in that physical environment. I feel like SGA is the exception though, in that he is so masterful with the pace that he plays at that I can't really see people keeping him out of the paint, even in that playoff environment. Again, he's not gonna do it with strength, but he's gonna do that with those shifts and gears
and he doesn't have to get to the rim. And at this stage, really it's mostly threes or its attempts at the rim, and he's like a crazy contestant finisher because he's such a great athlete and he has been a really good shooter this year and continue to grow there. But if you do try to wall off an SGA drive, well, he can just devastate you with that short mid range shot making. And he's the better playmaker at this stage.
So I expect Sga to have quite a debut in the playoffs as the guy he's been there before, but not as this superstar player. But I also think ants a guy who's gonna get better in the playoffs and anson guy who's already gotten better in the playoffs, because yeah, his strength scales very well and his pull up shooting
has been really good in those settings. But I think Sga is a dude who I mean, maybe not in the world where Nicol Yokitch exists, but you know, in a post Jokic world, I think he have best player in the world ceiling too, along with that.
An important thing we didn't even touch to is like ants getting you twenty seven five and five on forty nine eighty four splits, And there's no question that the thunder provide a significantly more spaced out environment.
For Forsha to operate.
And just the by virtue of just having a legitimate stretch five that you have to close out to and just all of the ball handling and shooting around him, I think it's a little bit more of an easy setup. The reason why I brought that up is as kind of a playoff scenario is specifically the shifty types, and I'll give you an example, James Harden. The shifty types that lean heavily on heliocentric shot creation from the same spots on the floor. One of the things we see
is like, yeah, that hesitation moves pretty nasty. But what if a singular perimeter defender sees at one hundred and fifty times in two weeks. You know, James Harden has this ridiculous you know, left to right crossover, step back jump shot combination like set of counter moves that he uses, and then what ends up happening is the same perimeter defender sees it one hundred and fifty times and by game six. In game seven, he has a good read
on that hesitation. He has a good read on when he's going to go to that left to right cross. He has a good read on how to kind of like close the gap on that step back jump shot without fouling and making it into a tougher shot. Whereas like the supremely gifted athletes, they tend to actually get more and more separation as series prolonged because they're the energizer Bunny, because they're those groups. And I agree with you, Carson. I don't think it's not that I don't think Shay
has best in the world potential. I just think I think if I had to rank where they are right now, SGA is clearly over ant. But for me personally, if I had to rank ceilings, I think ant ceiling is higher than SGA's right now.
Just because of those gifts. All right, we've got to get out of here.
You got one real quick thing about why SJA feels different in the playoffs to me than Harden. I do think it comes down to the of counters as one thing. I think that he simply has more moves that he can turn to at any point. I think right the spins creating separation with the alarm bar into the mid
range step back, and that's the other key point. Harden was very reliant on the step back three specifically, And you talked earlier about Tatum the concerns with the volatility about his pull up, his reliance on pull up threes, and Harden just never shot as well in the playoff settings from deep So I totally agree about the predictability
with him, and I just or SGA. I just feel is different because he gets to his spots in and around the paint, and because he is so creative and versatile in those spots.
Yeah, I know, I want to be clear, I'm not comparing SGA to Harden in terms of like I expect him to be a playoff flame out.
That's not what I mean.
I just mean more like a guard shot creator that doesn't necessarily rely on supreme athleticism to get to his spots, but relies more on like the you know, kind of the change of pace and change of direction kind of stuff. Like I do think that, I do think it's on the table, and I'm just curious to see. I am curious to see how SGA handles real playoff game planning, and like what happens if you don't, Like, let's say they run into two Minnesota. What does Jaden McDaniels guarding
SGA look like in game six? What does it look like in game seven? I'm just curious, that's all it is. And like just NBA history tells us the supreme athlete types, they tend to be less susceptible to that kind of thing in late series than the more finesse oriented types. But to be clear, I do not think SGA is the next James Hard and I never intended for it
to be like that. That was just kind of an example of just playoff, just kind of the dynamic that shifts as you get later into a playoff series.
All right, Carson, before.
We get out of here, can you guys tell us about what you guys are working on over at NERD Sash right now?
Absolutely. So, we're doing three shows a week. We're talking both NBA and NFL, but the sense of Super Bowl is coming up that is going to be overwhelming the NBA. And then we also do some trivia stuff and if you want to check out our YouTube page, just look up nerd Sash. On top of our full shows, we are doing some in depth video essay breakdown sort of stuff where we'll take a specific player or team and for ten twelve minutes will really dive deep in there
with film. So if you're interested in that, that's all at the nerd Sesh YouTube page.
Carson and Logan do an amazing job over there at nerds. Make sure you get over there and subscribe and support those guys. We will see you guys, Carson and Logan two weeks from today. Everybody else, I will see you guys on Monday.
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