Hoops Tonight -Will LeBron & Lakers make a trade? Will Steph & Warriors go all-in?

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the Volume. Happy Saturday, everybody, Congrats on making it to the weekend. By the time you listen to this, I will actually be skiing on the slopes of Mount Humphries and Flagstaff, Arizona. Very very excited to get my skis on snow finally this year. Today we're gonna be hitting six burning questions for the second half of the NBA season. Good opportunity for us to hit on a bunch of topics on some of the better teams near the top of the league. You guys know the drill before we

get started. Subscribed to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements. And then, for whatever reason, you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight, and last, but not least, sports around the country are really heating up

to start. Obviously, we just had the college football National Championship beat down, but we also have the NFL playoffs starting this weekend. My hot take for this NFL playoff run is I think the Dallas Cowboys are gonna get beat by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and then I think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are gonna get absolutely destroyed the following week. But that's just me as a pessimistic Cowboys fan.

But we also got basketball, We've got college hoops heating up um, and we have the NBA as we head out of football season and into their next four months, dominating the sports schedule. So obviously I'd like to watch all of these games, But how about we get out of the house and go see some of these games in person. I want you guys to check out game Time,

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Create an account and enter code Hoops. That's h o O p S for twenty dollars off. Download Game Time today, last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right, I can keep it real simple. I'm gonna ask the question, then we'll answer them. So question number one, first earning question for the second half of the NBA season, who will be the aggressive team at the trade deadline. There are two things in particular that I think make this question

very interesting. One, the league is wide open. And for the record, these stats and standings that I'm reading are recorded as of Wednesday, as those you guys who've been listening, though, I went out of town on Friday to up to Flagstaff to ski um, so that's when I'm recording this, and that's when these stats are current. But as of Wednesday, the top eight teams in the league are all separated

by just four games. The Celtics, the Nuggets, the Nets, the Grizzlies, the Bucks, the SS, the Calves, and the Pelicans all just four games apart. Then the next fourteen teams are all just four games apart, so the Pacers, the MAVs, the Kings, the Knicks, the Heat, the Clippers, the Sons, the Warriors, the Timberwolves, the Jazz, the Hawks, the Blazers, the Bulls, and the Lakers all just four

games apart. So there are twenty two teams right now in the NBA that can conceivably convince themselves that they have a real chance to go on a run and end up near the top of the pile in the standings and have a chance to win this thing. So that is factor number one. Factor number two is there seems to be more available trade targets this year than I can remember in recent NBA history. There are a

lot of teams that are likely to become sellers. When you're in a bunch like that of twenty two teams, Yeah, they're gonna be teams that I think will be like, hey, we can go get this thing, let's go after it. But I also think there will be teams that will pull out and try to see the opportunity to move into the lottery. Because if there's twenty two teams that are relatively close to the top, that means there's only eight teams really competing for those lottery spots, and you

could see some teams pull out pretty quickly. For instance, the Utah Jazz. A lot of good players there that could be had. Jordan Clarkson a good backup ball handling, interesting guy that I'd like to see someone like Dallas go after. For instance, Mike Conley, similar type of deal. Rudy Gay as an inexpensive wing for somebody who just need someone who's six eight and can do some stuff off the bench. Malik Beasley for shooting. Go to Charlotte.

There's Terry Rosier, Jalen McDaniels is flowing floating around in trade rumors. PJ. Washington, Kelly Ubre. They're a good spot if you just need a bench wing or something along those lines. Detroit is probably gonna trade Boyen Bagdanovitch at some point before we get to the deadlight. Washington. Washington and Chicago and particular are two teams that a couple more losses before the deadline, and you could see them

trying to consider blow things up. Blowing things up. That's Kyle Kuzma and Bradley Beale and Kristaps Porzingis potentially being available, that's Zach Lavine and Nikolavuseovitch, maybe even DeMar de Rosen being available. So there's tons of quality NBA players that could be significantly significant ceiling raisers for good teams that could probably be available this year, and twenty two teams that are conceivably in range of trying to make a

run at this thing. So what that means is, I think that it's very likely that we have at least one, if not multiple teams that view this as an opportunity to push their chips in Now. For the record, that's my favorite ideology as it pertains the roster building. And there's three reasons why one razor thin margins. The difference between the best team in the league and the two best team in the league is smaller than it's ever been.

Um when you get into a playoff series and it's seven game series, you know, a player here, a player there could be the difference between you winning and losing. When you're dealing with razor thin margin's talent does matter and influx of talent could be the difference between you losing in the second round or getting the trophy at the end of the day. Secondly, playoff matchup flexibility when

you get a specific player to address a need. Let's say if it's a bench big for a team like Golden State, a shooting wing for a team like the Lakers, a physical wing for the team like the Miami Heat, a backup ball handler for a team like the Dallas Mavericks. All of that gives you additional flexibility in a playoff series. In the chess match, it's like putting an additional piece on the board. It increases your options when you're in that setting, and you need a move to counter a

move that your opponent has made. And the last, but not least, I think a lot of teams around the league overvalue draft picks. You know, the Lakers are obsessed with the first round pick, and the reality is is all it really takes is one bad season or two bad seasons taking on other teams bad contracts to recoup draft assets, and then cap space in general is worth less than ever because teams are just resigning players because players want the financial security, and then they work out

deals for trades after the fact. So draft picks are just not all that important to me. If you see a two or three year window to go for it, I'm all about spending your draft picks to go for it there, because then there can be a two or three year reset window where you recoup those draft assets and then that can be your cycle. I think, personally, in my opinion, that's the best way to go about trying to win in the modern NBA. So I'm a

big believer in pushing chips in. So one of these teams is gonna say screw it and make a splash deal at the deadline. It's just a question of who. The specific teams that I think are most likely are the Mavericks, the Lakers, and the Heat because those are all teams that have excellent, high end star power that need to fix specific personnel weaknesses, so I expect them to be aggressive. We went over those potential deals yesterday. For the MAVs, I'd be looking at someone like a

Jordan Clarkson or Terry Rozier. For the Lakers, I'd be looking at someone like Kyle Kuzma or boy and Magdanovich. And for the Heat, I'd be looking at someone like Jay Crowder or o g And and Noby because they need someone a little bit more physical. But other teams I keep an eye on, like Brooklyn. It's really thin physically on the wing. Perimeter size is kind of an issue for them. So what if Brooklyn got someone like

Kyle Kuzma That would be super interesting. Um. The other team I'd be looking at is what about the Phoenix Suns. You know what if they take Chris Paul for salary filler and a bunch of draft picks with like Cam Johnson is an interesting young player and went to Washington and said, give us Bradley Beale and let's go at this with Devin Booker and Bradley bald McHale Bridges and DeAndre eight. Now, there there's gonna be someone that gets wacky at this deadline. I'm just genuinely curious to see

who it's going to be. Everyone needs to get better and that's the best way to do it within the season, alright. Question Number two, can Milwaukee fix their offense? The Bucks are just four and six in their last ten games. Again, as of Wednesday, they're dead last in offensive rating over that span, scoring just a hundred and six point nine points per one hun possessions. On the season, they are just twenty third and half court offense. So I attribute

the Bucks offensive struggles to three things. One spot up shooting their nineteenth and spot up points per possession. Big part of that is Chris Middleton being out, Joe Ingles missing the first chunk of the season with rehabbing his injury, and Drew Holiday, who has been in and out of the lineup all year long. Number two, they're not running nearly enough in transition. That's always been a huge part

of the Bucks offense. Last year, um, only the Grizzlies ran more frequently than the Bucks they ran one of their possessions last year, so almost a fifth of their offense came in transition last year. This year they are a middle of the pack transition frequency team. They only run on sixteen point six percent of their possessions, which ranks thirteen in the NBA. So they're not getting out of the half court frequently enough to generate higher quality

offense to supplement their offense. When you're the twenty three half court offense, you've got to be looking to run more frequently than that. And then, third, lastly, Janice's perimeter shooting. Uh. Janice has been the best rim finisher in the league this year, but he only takes about his shots at the rim, so that means that of his shots are taken away from the rim. So he's taken three twenty two shots outside of the restricted area this year and

he's only made eighty six of them. That's twenty six point seven percent. Now, as you guys know, as we've talked about Janice, I don't think Janice needs a reliable perimeter jump shot as it pertains to the ceiling of the team when they're all healthy, because I think his combination of relentless rim pressure, and his ability to pass the basketball is a perfectly fine counter to what he

does in the paint. But when the personnel has dipped below a certain point, with Chris Middleton being out, with your Holiday being out a lot, now it's at a crisis point in Janice's inability to make perimeter jump shots has stopped him from being able to elevate the team anyway. Um So I don't think it necessarily matters as far as we evaluate Jannice, but I do think his inability to knock down those shots has been part of the reason why their offense hasn't been very good within this season.

Now here's the silver lining. When Janice is on the court with Joe Ingles, they've now played together two d and thirty two possessions, which is a decent chunk. And in those possessions, the Bucks have an offensive rating of one twenty four, which is amazing. That's how just adding one competent spot up player and one guy that can do some stuff off the dribble has completely reinvigorated their offense.

So now at Chris Middleton to that when he gets into a rhythm, add a healthy Drew Holiday to that, it starts to get really excited looking at Joe Ingles real quick. Just he's been a legit secondary ball handler for them. Um. When Joe shoots or passes out of pick and roll this year, the Bucks have scored sixty seven points on fifty nine possessions. That's one point one

four points per possession. There are a hundred and seventy one players in the league that have run at least fifty pick and rolls this year, and Joe Ingles inefficiency on those plays. Um. So my answer to the question can the Bucks fix their offense is yes. I think Joe Ingles and Chris Middleton will give you honice the

helping needs to get the offense back on track. And I actually expect the Bucks to be excellent the rest of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised if they had the best record over from here towards the end of the season. All Right, the third question, can Denver fix their defense? The Bucks are The Nuggets are seventh in defense over their last fifteen games, which is encouraging, but for the season there twenty two in defensive rating.

They are dead last in transition defense according to Cleaning the Glass and when playing against the top ten point differential teams in the league. So when the Nuggets played the top ten teams in the league, they are twenty four in defensive rating. That's also according to Cleaning the Glass.

So my answer to can Denver fix their defense is no. I think they're capable of manufacturing a fac simile of a passable defense for stretches during the regular season, just by competing really hard and by running a smart scheme.

But the reality of their predicament is that their best lineup feature there's three average to below average defensive players, and two of them, in particular, Michael Porter Jr. And Nicola Yo, gets really struggle guarding in space and in transition, which is a big part of why they are the worst transition team in the league. So inevitably, there's no fix for that. There's no trade for that. Those are

your best players. They have to be on the court when we get into April and May, teams are going to find a way to target them, and it's going to be a problem. The better question is is will Denver's offense be good enough to overcome that? And right now I'm inclined to say no, but I still view them as a contender. So I do think it's a chance that they can overcome that. But NBA history has just told us too many times that if you can't

get stops, can't win. And it's a personnel issue, but it's a personnel associated with their best players, So it's not like you're about to start trading them or benching them in favor of defensive minded players. It's just kind of a flaw on the roster construct at this point. Alrighty, next question, does Golden State go all in at the deadline? Now? For the record, I think the Warriors are mostly fine.

They have some personnel weaknesses. Uh. Like I said before, I think they could use it back up big think they could use a backup wing. But it's not anything that their core players can't overcome. And I think the vast majority of their problems are associated with effort, and all the metrics show that. You can see that in their their road home splits, and mainly just in big games and specific settings when they've really needed to be great.

They've been great in defense and in rebounding and in all of those things that they've struggled in as they've racked up losses. Particularly on the road. So I think this is just a case of really bad championship malaise, and I'm not particularly worried about it. But the question is does Golden State go all in in terms of trades at the deadline, And it's kind of My answer is split, because I believe they should, but I don't

think they will. The case to push all your chips in is that the top tier contenders are all better than last year. Milwaukee will have Christmas Alton and Joe Ingles they did not last year. Brooklyn is a much better contender this year than um some of the options that we had last year. And then Boston with the addition of Malcolm Brogden, in the improvements of Jalen Brown

and Jason Tatum, they're better than they were last year. Now, the West is still wide open, but the challenge waiting for the Warriors in the finals is going to be very tough. And so I think making a move with the young players for a legit backup big and a legit backup wing just gives you a much better chance to succeed in those environments. And again, let's just make it for the sake of argument, let's just make it

a simple math equation. Let's say that you know you're turns out that you get to the NBA Finals and your nine seven percent good enough to beat the Milwaukee Bucks at full strength, or the Brooklyn Nets or the Boston Celtics. It would be really unfortunate at that point that you didn't make that trade to where you have

that slight edge over your opponent. Again, the idea here is razor thin margins, and when you have razor thin margins, pushing your hips in actually could be the difference between you losing and winning. So again that's just always been my take. Don't like multiple timelines, don't like planning for the future. In the NBA, quick rebuilds are possible, I would push chips in the middle. But I have a

feeling that Joe lacop is more pessimistic about this. I would imagine that he kind of use it more negatively, as if like the window is closing and his players are getting old. There's been some weird quotes about There is a quote from Joe Engles the other day that was like, yeah, we'll always have Steph Clay Andre as long as they're playing at a high level, which is basically just a fancy way of saying we'll we'll get

rid of them when they're not good anymore. UM So I would imagine Joe lacop kind of used the young players more as the future, unless as assets. So again, I would push all my chips in, but I don't actually expect the Warriors to do so. Alright. Are the Nets contenders or pretenders? I think this is probably one of the things that a lot of people disagree with me about. Um I have Kevin Durant as an m

VP of the league at this point. If the season ended today, and I think the Nets are a top tier championship contender, I would venture to guess that about half of you probably disagree about the m v P thing, and more than half of you probably disagree as it pertains to the championship contender piece, just because of all the things that have gone wrong with the Nets over the years. So I want to just point out three reasons why I believe the Nets are a bona fide

top tier championship contender. Number one is playoff execution. The Nets are third and half court offense and second and half and half court defense, so their top three in the static half court environment on both ends of the floor. In the static half court environment, which is mostly what you face in the playoffs because of scouting and just better transition defense, that's where games are decided, and the Nets are great at both ends of the floor in

that setting. Secondly, they are an excellent clutch team. The Nets are a league best sixteen in three in games that involved clutch situations. So any time a game was within five with five or fewer minutes left, the Nets one sixteen out of nineteen of them. They're outscoring teams by twenty eight points per per one possessions in those clutch situations. Most playoff games are close, and the Nets

are great at winning close games. And then three, Katie is the best basketball player that I've seen this season within this regular season obviously, which is a different conversation. UM. I also think Katie has the most to gain by winning if you really think about what his career resume is. His only two championships are with that Warriors team. In the court of public opinion, most people view those championships

as less valuable than others. By winning one in Brooklyn, it kind of changes the entire dynamic of his career resume. Now he's a three time champ, and it adds legitimacy to what happened in Golden State because you've seen him win without Steph and the Warriors. So I just think he's extremely motivated, has a lot to gain by it. And when I really zoom out from that, there are

a great half court team. They're an excellent defensive team, they are excellent in late game situations, and they have a guy that I think is playing better basketball than anybody right now. That's enough to make you a top tier contender. They do still have flaws. They rely heavily on pull up shooting, so when those shots don't fall, it could be problematic see the Celtics series last year.

They're also thin on the perimeter from a physicality standpoint, and so you know, I worry about them in specific matchups against very strong teams, teams like Boston, but every team has issues. So I absolutely think that Brooklyn is a contender and a top tier contender that has the same type of chance to win as Golden State or Boston or Milwaukee. Alright, last question, will the Boston Celtics keep their foot on the gas so this time last

year was when Boston really went on their run. As a matter of fact, if you take the last half of last year, so the last forty one games last year, and the first half of this year, so the first forty one games of this year, they're sixty and twenty two. So there are sixty win team over the course of their full, last full season's worth of games. Uh. They've also won three playoff series during that span, and they

had a to one lead during the finals. So they've proven themselves over an extended stretch to be a highly capable offense and defense at every single level except for the NBA Finals. So the question will I will Boston keep their foot on the gas, I answer no from the stame point of the regular season. I think they're content now to just kind of float along and every once in a while, whoop, someone's asked to prove they can still do it. And you can see that in

their recent schedule in the way that they've played. The Celtics are just eight and seven in their last fifteen games, but they have massively impressive wins over that stretch. They beat the Lakers, they beat the Milwaukee Bucks, they beat the Los Angeles Clippers, they beat the Dallas Mavericks, demoralize the Mavericks, um, and they beat that Bulls team the other night that was playing extremely well. Um, So I view the Celtics as more of a switch flipping team now,

which is fine. For the record, Like, nothing could change my opinion of Boston either way. Like, they could lose ten in a row right now and I'd be like, they're just messing around. You know. They could win twenty in a row right now and I'd still be like, yeah, but can they do it against the Warriors, you know what I mean? So, Like, Boston to me is purely established.

All of this is just dress rehearsal for the late rounds of the playoffs, and their biggest enemy is themselves and their ability to execute on the offensive end when the stakes are highest. And the only way that they can prove that is to overcome those shortcomings at the highest level in the NBA Finals. Um, I think they're the best roster in the league. I think if they do overcome that individual problem that they will win the trophy. That's the type of talent that they have on the roster.

It's right there. They just have to go do it, all right, guys, that is all I have for today. As always, I sincerely appreciate your support. I hope you guys enjoyed the rest of the weekend and I will be back on Monday. The volume