Hoops Tonight - Will Nikola Jokic & Nuggets start a dynasty after NBA Finals win vs. Heat? - podcast episode cover

Hoops Tonight - Will Nikola Jokic & Nuggets start a dynasty after NBA Finals win vs. Heat?

Jun 14, 202348 min
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Episode description

After taking down Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat in 5 games in the NBA Finals, Jason Timpf discusses if this is the start of a Denver Nuggets dynasty as their core of Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and Aaron Gordon are all locked into contracts for multiple years. #volume #herd

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Transcript

Speaker 1

The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are having a great week. Coverage of the NBA Finals here at Hoops Tonight is brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited.

Speaker 2

How do you cash back? Well?

Speaker 1

Today, June thirteenth, is the first full calendar day and franchise history that the Denver Nuggets are NBA champions. And so for today, we're going to entirely focus in on Denver.

Speaker 2

I have.

Speaker 1

We're gonna do our Chase three point segment kind of focusing on last night's game and just a couple of the interesting things that we didn't have a chance to talk about last night with Colin Cowhard, So we'll hit that at the beginning of the show. Then I want to do a deep dive just into what this Denver team accomplished, what Nikola Jokic accomplished, of a little bit

of a brief dip into contextualizing it all time. I don't want to go too heavy into it because I want to save some of that stuff for this summer. And then I want to do a shout out of Jamal Murray as well. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channel so you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason lt so you guys don't

miss any show announcements. And if for whatever reason, you guys miss one of these videos you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops Tonight, all right, let's talk some basketball. So for our Chase three point segment, we're gonna hit on three things that I found particularly

interesting in last night's series clinching win by the Denver Nuggets. So, first of all, Number one, I thought it was really interesting that Spolsra went all in on zone, so to give you an idea of kind of the pathway of

zone throughout the series. And you guys might remember when I was breaking down some of the film, I was on the Miami side of things saying, I think their best chance to win is to go all in on zone because they just they weren't having much success at all stopping the two man game in man and man situations except four in Game two, which was just an unbelievable defensive performance from Jimmy Butler and bam Adebayo, and outside of that, they were kind of getting cooked, but

consistently against the zone.

Speaker 2

They are.

Speaker 1

With the zone, they had some success slowing Denver down, so they ran zoned for thirty nine possessions total in games one and two. They were well below a point per possession allowed in game one when they ran zone. If you remember, in game two when Miami stole that game, they got stops in their zone on ten of the first thirteen possessions in the fourth quarter as they turned a deficit into a I think they went up like nine or something like that at that point in the

fourth quarter. But then when they went back to Miami they barely used it. They used it only twelve possessions combined in games three and four, which was an interesting decision from Eric Spolstra. In those twelve possessions, once again they held Denver well below a point per possession. They actually didn't use it at all in Game four. I think a big part of that was Denver kind of stiff armed them enough that the games never really felt like they were gettable for Miami, and I think Spolster

kind of was holding the zone back. Well, he broke it out big time in Game five, thirty two possessions by far the most that he used the zone in this series. In those possessions, they held Denver to zero point six to six points per possession. So if you're wondering how Miami did kind of sort of make a game of Game five in the way that they couldn't in the previous two games, I thought a big part of it was Spolster finally leaning one hundred percent in

on zone. Now would that have change the series? Probably not, because the truth of the matter is is lots and lots of reps are exactly what a team needs to solve his zone. You know, I talk a lot about zone as a rhythm disruptor, and there's a reason for that. So, for instance, during the in the entire regular season eighty two games, the Nuggets faced zone only two hundred and

eighteen possessions. Think about that, over seven thousand possessions against man demand defense, only two hundred and eighteen against zone. It's less than three percent of their total offensive possessions. So you just don't get a lot of reps against it during the regular season. Just in the finals, they were hit. They went against it eighty three times total, so almost half as much as they did in the entire regular season in terms of reps. Just in the

NBA finals. And you know, you're used to getting your shots as a player. There's a rhythm not just with the player with his ball handling and shooting, but there's a rhythm to a five man unit on offense. You get accustomed to getting shots in a certain way, right Like Murray and Jokic are accustomed to getting shots in pick and roll a certain way. CACP Michael Porter Junior are accustomed to getting certain shots and those kickout situations

in pick and roll. Obviously, Aaron Gordon's used to getting his ducans and his cuts and things along those lines. And when you flip it to his zone, suddenly the rhythm of the way the team gets those shots changes fundamentally, and that can, honestly spu spring some of these shooting slumps like what happened last night. As a matter of fact, in spot up situations, Denver scored just fourteen points on

twenty four spot up possessions. So that was number two on my list of most interesting things from last night game last night's game, as a result of Spolstra going all in on zone, he discombobulated Denver's offense so much that they scored just fourteen points on twenty four spot up possessions, barely over a half a point per possession. Now, again, this is I'm hitting on two Miami positive things here to kind of queue up number three on this list,

which was Denver's defense. Because in spite of all of that, in spite of Eric Spolstra's all in on zone approach, in spite of throwing off Denver's offense to the tune of their spot up shooters barely converting at over a half a point per possession, Denver won last night and they hoisted the trophy. How did they do that? They did it on the defensive end of the floor. If you guys remember, and I want to specifically hone in

on Denver's pick and roll defense. So if you guys remember in Game two when Denver was really really sloppy, If you guys remember I said it was Denver's worst defensive performance of the entire postseason. They allowed almost a point and a half per possession in pick and roll. They held last night, Miami to twenty two points on forty two pick and rolls. Think about how insane that is.

That's including passes, by the way, zero point five to four points per possession in pick and roll, basically a third of what they allowed in Game two. I talked a lot about this last night with Colin, but sometimes we focus and this is one of the many lessons that I've learned in this particular season. And we're gonna do one of the off season videos. We're gonna do

actually this week before I head out of town. We're gonna do like kind of like we did last year, like a lessons I learned from the season kind of thing. And one of the lessons that I learned is, you know, one of the ways that we have to evaluate defense is not necessarily just what a defense is capable of during the regular season in aggregate, but also what they are capable of against specific matchups. It's not necessarily can you guard at a extremely high level against all thirty

NBA teams? It's can you guard the Timberwolves, and can you guard the Suns? And can you guard the Lakers? And can you guard the Heat? Right, It's about matchups, and they were able to craft a defense that functioned against all four of those teams. As a matter of fact, they finished the playoff run with a one to ten

point two defensive rating, which is pretty damn good. As a matter of fact, Golden State last year, which was I believe, if I remember correctly, the second best defense in the regular season, they finished last year's postseason with a one h nine point six defensive rating on their

way to a championship. So Denver finished just six tenths of a point behind last year's champion in their ability to get stops on a per possession basis, again because they found ways to stop the specific matchups they were playing against. They had a lot of Denver fans in my mentions over the course of the last couple of days, like, oh, well, you undervalued Denver's defense.

Speaker 2

They were actually pretty good.

Speaker 1

No, they weren't. They weren't good the season. They were outside of the top ten in every single month during the regular season except for January. There was one month in there in January where they were fourth in defense. Every other month they were pretty bad. Post All Star Break they were still fifteenth. There was no stretch of defense that was significant where the Nuggets really competed during

the regular season. They were just consistently okay, they were consistently a middle of the pack defense during the regular season, but they found a way in the postseason to craft a defense that functionally got stops against their specific matchups.

And that's all that matters. And that's what's funny. Golden State was a dominant defense last year that defended well almost every single month and finished the season second in defensive rating, and they on a per possession basis, were more or less the same impactful defense as Denver in this postseason. To Denver, credit to Mike Malone, credit to

everybody in that unit for doing their job. And that's what I thought was really interesting from a schematic approach, bringing Jokic higher out of pick and rolls because he's not a great rim protector in a pick and roll scheme, although he did really well protecting the rim in ISO. We'll talk about that in a minute, but in pick and roll, asking him to block lobs and defend against slashing guys coming down at him at full speed, that's

not weaponizing his strengths. But Jokic is a high IQ player with great hands, so bringing him up in pick and roll was really smart because that allowed him to kind of slap down at the ball and pull up shooters and dissuade those little pocket passes and swing passes with his hands rather than having him back at the rim where he was going to be of lower impact. And Jokic got a ton of deflections over the tail half of this particular series up at the level of

the screen. So Jokic did a great job in his individual job. And then they brought Aaron Gordon underneath the rim as that low man to kind of take on more of those rim protection responsibilit and then they were really really sharp on the back end with their rotations. That's how they crafted a defense that worked in this particular postseason run and then again in isolation in post

up situations. So Jokic played a cup against a couple of guys in Anthony Davis and BAM in particular Little Carl Towns as well, guys that actually tried to attack him. And again those are those guys aren't the greatest offensive bigs in the world. Bam and AD are more known for defense, but Jokic is also considered a relatively easy target as an isolation at least considered a relatively easy target, and it just wasn't the case in this postseason run.

Players attempted nineteen shots against Jokic in ISO and post situations in this playoff run, and they scored just seven of those nineteen shots. That's just thirty seven percent from the field. So even in isolation situations when teams were like, oh, we've got Jokic on an island with Bam or we got Yokic on an island with Ad, Jokic was stonewall those dudes. So again, within the concept of what they needed in this playoff run, Denver's defense was more than

good enough. Now, will there be a team that they face in the future, Like, we're gonna talk about this a little bit later. If you list out the top eight records in the league, Like if you took all the teams in the regular season and ranked them by win percentage from one to thirty, the top eight teams, Denver didn't have to play any of those guys they faced. The highest seed they faced was a four seed. Now that's not their fault. You play who's in front of you.

And those teams at the top clearly had flaws because they got beat. But there will be teams in the future that I think will challenge Denver's defense to a greater extent. But then again, they dominated this postseason run, so we will find out at that point if their offense is enough to overcome that in particular, but within this particular postseason run, given the competition that they faced, they were able to get more than enough stops, which

is a super interesting trend in NBA history. This is the first team in decades that does not have a top ten defense in the regular season and was not a defending champion that won an NBA title. So that's how good this Denver offense was, and that's how smart this Denver team was, and what they did defensively, they were able to break a decade's old trend in the NBA.

I also wanted to shout out all the guys on the roster and Mike Malone because we talk a lot about details on the show, right like static half court situations are a great way to measure talent, but everything around that situation is about coaching and effort and focus, attention to detail all those particular things. This was a

great transition defense. They were fourth in transition frequency allowed in the regular season, meaning they were the fourth best team at preventing teams from getting out in transition, and they were third out of all the playoff teams in preventing teams from getting out in transition and then rebounding. They grabbed fifty three point eight percent of available rebounds in this postseason run. That was the best out of all of the teams that played in this playoff field.

So ending defensivesions by preventing teams from getting on the offensive glass and keeping them out of transition. Those are little details that helped keep those defensive ratings down. Again, like if I look at that defensive rating, they finished the playoff run at one ten point two, which was only six tenths of a point worse than Golden State last year. A huge part of that is being really really sharp on the details. That's what it's Again. We

talk like it's like same thing with Jamal Murray. When we're talking about Jamal Murray all time. There are gonna be people that are gonna be like, oh, well, he's playing with Jokic, so it's easier for him. Yeah, you're right, but who cares. This is a basketball team. And Jamal Murray contributes to this particular basketball team in terms of actual production at a level that is that of a star. So even if you don't think he's a star, he's sure as hell is for this team. And the same

thing goes for the defensive end. Like if you're out there and you're like, oh, well, Denver didn't play a truly great offense, yeah you're right, but it doesn't matter. In this postseason run. The teams that won were the teams that won, and Denver beat all those guys. So I'm sorry, but at the end of the day, they have the Lariyo b and this is just the way things shook out. It's not about being a great defense in a vacuum. It's about being a great defense against

your opponents. In that postseason run, Denver was They got the deal done. But those were just some notes from last night's game. Our three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited Unlimited one point five percent cash back is just the beginning. Earned three percent on dining at restaurants, including takeout and eligible delivery services, three percent on drugstore purchases, five percent on travel purchased or Chase Ultimate rewards and one point five percent on all of

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Speaker 2

That work done.

Speaker 1

And to get it done right and just a few taps and the Angie app or clicks on the site, you can have Angie tackle your home service project from start to finish. Download the free Angi mobile app today or visit Angie dot com. That's a Ngi dot com. A couple other quick notes from last night. KCP the Champion KCP. I told you guys, you Denver fans, that I loved rooting for or KCP when he was with the Lakers. He was one of my favorite players on that team. Made so many big plays for that Laker

team on their way to an NBA championship. He had a massive three on the left wing, and last night's game he had a clutch steal on that Jimmy Butler drive at the end of the game, hit a couple of clutch free throws as well. Even though he struggled at times during the series as part of Miami's defensive scheme, you just could count on KCP to make some huge plays in that game, and he did. Bruce Brown a

nightmare offensive game. I think it was something crazy like four to fourteen from the field, but he had that massive offensive rebound put back at the end of the game. And it was an interesting note on Denver size because on the play, I can't remember who took the shot

on the right wing. It might have been Jamal Murray, I think took a tough fade away, but on that play I think it was Jimmy Butler boxing out Aaron Gordon, Lowry's guarding Bruce Brown, and Lowry knows that Jimmy needs help with Aaron Gordon because how big he is, so Lowry double teams Aaron Gordon on the box out, which leaves Bruce Brown a free run to the rim to get the offensive rebound put back. So again like that, overall, size was just so dominant for Denver throughout this series.

And this is my last note that I wanted to hit the inevitability of Denver. So Miami takes one point lead with less than three minutes left on a Jimmy Butler post up, and Denver goes down and runs a two man game. They have Caleb Martin and Jamal Murray and bam At a Baio and Nicol Jokich. They switch it.

On the switch, Murray runs to the right corner, which is the strong side corner, which most NBA teams will not help out of especially with a good shooter like Jamal Murray that pins bam At a Bio out of the play to where he can't help. Then Nikole Jokiz just attacks that side of the floor on Caleb Martin gets all the way to the rim for a wide

open layup. Literally nothing again, pivotal possession. Down by one, final three minutes of an NBA Finals game, and Denver just gets this incredibly easy basket by virtue of their unguardability because there was just nothing Miami could do. And the Bruce Brown put back, same type of thing. Miami goes back and takes the lead again. Miami gets a stop this time, but because they had to double team Aaron Gordon on a box out because he's freaking huge, you get this easy put back for Bruce Brown and

they take the lead again. So again, when the Chips were down, Denver won with the same strengths that they demonstrated all season long.

Speaker 2

And I love that.

Speaker 1

I love that kind of that kind of symmetry in basketball, you know, like, you don't win with luck, you win with what makes you great. And what made Denver great all season long was the unguardable two man game of Jamal Murray, Nikole Jokic and their overwhelming size on the glass, and those were the two pivotal plays that won them the trophy. I loved that, a little thing that I love about basketball, all right, So let's now kind of zoom out a little bit on this particular postseason run,

starting Nikole Jokich. So finishes the playoff run averaging thirty points fourteen rebounds in tennysis on sixty three percent true shooting, which is obviously amazing, thirty fourteen and seven in the finals on sixty seven percent true shooting. Some play type data. One point zero five points per possession in ISO that's great. One point one to one points per possession the post including passes, that's incredible. One point twenty six points per

possession in roll man possessions that's incredible. Twenty five offensive rebound put back, so we averaged more than one a game just grabbing the ball and putting it back in the rim off of a miss. Some shot type data. He shot forty two percent on catch and shoot jump shots. Memember last year with his wrist injury, just couldn't make a jump shot to save his life. That was a big one that ended up helping them forty six percent

from three. That's obviously ridiculous rescue possessions. Jokics took twenty eight off the dribble jump shots and made fourteen of them, So he shot fifty percent on pull up jump shots. Now a lot of those are those crazy like one legged, step back fadeaway shots that he takes. He shot fifty percent on floaters, fifty seven percent on hook shots, and was sixty five percent at the rim. Crazy passing data, The Denver Nuggets scored twenty three point seven points per

game just on Nikola Jokic assists. How crazy is that? So that means that in total, Nikola Jokic generated over fifty four points per game in this postseason run between scoring and passing. Zooming out kind of looking at things

all time again. I'm gonna do a ranking of all the all time playoff runs later on this summer, so I don't want to give it any sort of specific number, but just kind of looking at it at first glance, it's certainly one of the very best offensive playoff runs that you've ever seen in terms of scoring volume, playmaking efficiency, and the quality of defenses he faced, going against Rudy Gobert, going against Anthony Davis, going against bam Adebayo, those are

three of the very best front core defenders that we have in the league, and he just thrashed all of them.

Speaker 2

As a team.

Speaker 1

For Denver, I thought this was one of the most dominant team playoff runs we've ever seen. They were never truly threatened. They had a net rating of eight, meaning they outscored teams by eight points per one hundred possessions in the playoffs. That is the highest since the Warriors in twenty seventeen. In twenty eighteen, which, by the way,

these are fucking these are just crazy numbers. The Warriors outscored teams by thirteen points per one hundred possessions in the playoffs in twenty seventeen, and they outscored teams by eleven points per one hundre possessions in the playoffs in twenty eighteen. So that gives you some perspective on how ridiculously good those Warriors teams were. But the Nuggets are the highest net rating team since then at plus eight. Trivia time, who do you think was the second best

team behind the Warriors since twenty eighteen. The answer is the Lakers in twenty twenty. They were plus seven in net rating in that postseason run. Now, like I said earlier, part of it was the talent they faced. Again, they just by virtue of the Bucks having that Yannis injury and just kind of being an out rhythm and falling apart, and the Celtics regressing so much defensively, they just didn't have to face any of the top eight records in

the league this year. That's not Denver's fault. Again, you face who's in front of you. But I do think this will probably be the most dominant playoff run that this corps will face. I do think they'll face bigger challenges in the future, but to me, that's exciting. That, to me is what's fun about basketball. Like I talked, you guys know how big of a Lebron James fan I am. Twenty twenty was Lebron's most dominant playoff run. They never got threatened, They never trailed in a series.

After Game two, his scoring and efficiency numbers were completely off the charts, literally by far. His most efficient postseason average thirty on something crazy like sixty seven percent true shooting in the finals. Lebron is just ridiculous in that entire playoff run, and they kicked everyone's ass, and they went through a lot of big names, just like Jolkic did right, Like went through Damian Lillard, went through James Harden, went through Nikola jokicch went through Jimmy Butler. It was

a dominant playoff run from Lebron. But when you're looking at Lebron's four best championship runs, like that's last place probably in terms of just the level that he got to. Because one of my favorite things about sports is when things are stacked against you and there is some adversity and your team actually isn't way better than everybody. These superstars have to dig deep and they reach something that's

like another level of greatness that's inside of them. And that's what's so exciting to me, is like Jokic has another level he can get to. He saw a little bit in clutch situations in this playoff run. So Nikola Jokic attempted field goals at a rate of twenty eight per thirty six minutes when the score was within five with less than five minutes left. So in clutch situations, Nikola Jokic attempted shots at twenty eight per thirty six minutes, so he was way more aggressive when games were close.

Late in those situations, Jokic shot just thirty nine percent from the field and seventeen percent from three. So, as you know, when things get tough, when things really bog down, efficiency tanks because it's harder to score in those situations. There will be playoff runs in the future where I think Denver will face better teams and Yokic will have

to be better. And that's what's crazy. He will be I think that when we look back at Jokic's career when it's all said and done, he will have some playoff runs that are like that where he had to down three to two because you know, like for instance, twenty twelve, right Chris Bosh pulls an abdominal muscle misses the Pacers series. They're down two to one in Indy. Lebron drops forty in Game four to bring it back to Miami, too too. Bosh comes back in the Celtics series,

coming off the bench. He's a shell of himself. Cage's kicking his ass. They're down three to two in the series. Wade's knees acting up. They don't have this overwhelming talent advantage. Lebron goes on the road in Game six, down three to two, it scores forty five to bring it back

to Miami for Game seven. Like, those are those moments that I think are like there's a difference between a dominant playoff run and like, you know, a truly impressive playoff run in terms of individual greatness and face of adversity. And so I'm not panalizing Yokic in any way, shape or form there, but I do think Jokic will have other playoff runs in the future where he's forced to dig deeper.

Speaker 2

And do more.

Speaker 1

And I'm excited to see what level he can reach when he's on that level, because you just don't know what a players capable of until you see them there, right, Like Kyrie gets traded from the And I'm just using Lebron as an example because he's my favorite player, and I know Jokic is your guys' his favorite player Denver Nuggets fans, And this is kind of the moments that I'm excited for you guys that I got to enjoy rooting for Lebron James in twenty eighteen, Kyrie Irving gets traded,

they don't have a talent advantage against their opponents. Lebron thirty four to nine to nine in the postseason, sixty two percent true shooting. He hit eight forty point games, a fifty point game. So you get the point, Like you get to see like this other level of individual greatness when the adversity goes up. And who knows, maybe this Denver team is so damn dominant, and maybe Jokic is so much better than his peers that he never

has those moments. And if he does that, like trust me, guys, if Jokic just rips through the league for the next five years and racks up three to four titles and never looks bothered, that's where you're in MJ territory. That's like Michael Jordan in the nineties where he was never threatened. But it's because he was just so much better than everybody for so many years. I don't think this particular season is proof of that in concept. I think it

needs to be over several years. But I am really curious to see what happens over the course of the next half decade with Jokic and with this Denver team so insummation, I would say that because Lebron didn't win the title in twenty eighteen, I would say that this is probably the most dominant and unstoppable offensive playoff run that I can ever remember seeing in terms of inevitability,

complete and total unguardability and getting the trophy. I don't think anyone's ever done it better than Jokic in this particular run on the offensive end of the floor. I also think it's one of the most dominant team runs of all time. I think this Denver run is gonna be remembered fondly. I said before the finals that I think this Denver team is better than anybody since the Warriors.

The net rating data has kind of confirmed at Jokic dominated several of his peers along the way, dominated Carl Towns, Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Ayton, Anthony Davis, and bam Adebayo.

Speaker 2

I think he's.

Speaker 1

Clearly solidified himself as the best basketball player in the world, and he will be number one on my list when we rank players this summer. I'm just saying that when we look back at his career twenty years from now, I don't think this will be his best playoff run, because I do think there will be playoff runs where Denver gets threatened by better teams and Jokich has to reach another level, and I do believe he'll get to that level, and I want to give the proper credit.

Then I don't want to like pretend this is the greatest thing we've ever seen when I genuinely believe Jokic is gonna do better in the future.

Speaker 2

Jamal Murray. What I said before the postseason.

Speaker 1

If you guys remember I said, one of the biggest things we have to be tracking for Denver in this postseason is can Jamal Murray get back to the star level he was at in the post in the bubble, And that's exactly what he did. He averaged twenty six, six and seven on fifty nine percent true shooting. He shot forty from three on eight three point attempts per game. That's like Splash Brothers shit right there. This is the

wild part pick and roll shot creation. Jamal Murray was the very best pick and roll ball handler in the entire NBA in this postseason. He scored one point one to seven points per possession when he shot or passed out of pick and roll. This year, eighteen players in the postseason ran at least one hundred pick and roles including passes, and Jamal Murray finished number one, better than Steph better than Jalen Brunston, better than Devin Booker, better

than James Harder. You guys get the point. And again, obviously Jokich helps, But like I was talking about earlier, nobody cares about in a vacuum I mean, obviously in a vacuum manners if you're ranking players and things like that. But the bottom line is is Jamal Murray's contributions to the Denver Nuggets, regardless of what's happening around him, are equal to that of a star player, and so in my opinion, that makes him a star player. And I will be ranking Jamal Murray as such when we do

our player rankings. I understand some people see that differently, but that's just the way that I see the game. It's kind of like what we talked about with Raymond over the years, Like, yeah, Draymond has some limitations, but strictly with the way he contributes to the Warriors, he contributes at a level that goes far beyond box score contributions and so I feel the same way about Jamal Murray.

I think he proved himself as a legitimate star. I also think he's primed for a breakout season, and I'm gonna save that for our next topic. I look ahead for Denver. I obviously see dynasty potential here for several reasons. One, Yokich is the best player in the world and he's only twenty eight years old. Two, Jokic is remarkably durable. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior have dealt with nagging injuries over the years, but you just throw four dudes

around Nikole Jokic and you're winning fifty games. So honestly, like there's it's very hard to imagine them slipping too far in the standings. And they can be very deliberate with the way that they managed, you know, like load managed guys like Jamal Murray and k and Michael Porter Junior. So like it's just easy to see them getting out really high seed every single year and being healthy in

time for the playoffs. Three, Jamal Murray is the perfectly complimentary co star to Nikol Joki, and he's on the same timeline. Four, the whole starting lineup is locked up for two more seasons. KCP has a player option after next season, but he should be retainable, especially given the number that he's at right now in terms of the ability to add raises as long as ownership is willing to pay, and even if ownership is not willing to pay, he's probably the most replaceable out of the five guys

in that lineup. Like, obviously, you guys know how much I appreciate KCP, but like Michael Porter Junior is a six to ten movement shooter that's tough to replicate anywhere else in the league. Aaron Gordon is like bam At a bio but on the wing that's really difficult to to replicate. Obviously, Jokichen Murray is impossible to replicate. So like KCP is like that one guy that, like, if I swapped him out for a league average two guard at some point in the next two or three years,

like Denver's still gonna be really good. So as a result of that, like it's easy to see the core of this group. The main basketball identity of this group lasting for the better part of a half decade, which is a big element to a continuity, is huge. They already had continuity going into this particular Poseason run that's only going to grow over the years, and they have proven playoff traits. They're huge, they score in the paint, so pull up jumpers are not their bread and butter.

It's a supplementary thing for them. And they rebound the hell out of the basketball. Those are all things that are proven to win in the NBA. I think next year, in particular, has the potential to be their most impressive season from start to finish. There are a couple of

reasons why they have the confidence of a champion. This is a big thing that Bill Simmons talked about in his basketball book that I really liked the idea that once you become a champion, it's like the weight of the world is lifted off your shoulders.

Speaker 2

You have a new confidence.

Speaker 1

Yeah, there's some other stuff, like the disease of more and all those different things, but for the most part, you're at your peak as a basketball player when you feel the confidence of being a champion, and there's no moment that can scare you because you've already succeeded at the greatest moment in basketball. So I think that'll help them a lot too. Jamal Murray and his breakout season.

So I talked about this earlier. Jamal Murray I thought was just dealing with coming off of the bubble in his first season after the bubble, then he got hurt. Then he obviously missed a season, and it's like this season he's working his way back into rhythm as he's learning how to play again after the knee injury. Next year, I think he's going to have his best regular season as a pro. I think he's gonna make an All NBA team. I think he's gonna make an All Star team.

I think he's gonna be dominant and available throughout the season, average close to twenty three, twenty four points a game. I think Jamal Murray's gonna have his best regular season as a pro next year. That's gonna help Denver a lot. Michael Porter Junior, I think learned some valuable lessons in the NBA Finals about how important it is for him to defend and rebound, and how important it is for him to be able to score by putting the ball on the floor as Miami kind of chased him off

the three point line. I expect him to address that in this offseason I think like him in particular, stands to gain the most this offseason from the struggles he had in the finals, although he made some huge plays last night Lastly, the rest of the league I think is going to take a couple of years to catch up to what Denver's doing. Milwaukee I think needs to completely retool. Boston's best approach is to stan pat and hope Jayson Tatum gets better, which might take a cuples.

Philly's gonna retool. Miami wasn't close out West like Lebron is aging, so like the Lakers need to get much better. I actually view the Lakers still as the best, the biggest threat to Denver next year if you look at net ratings. Yeah, I know they got swept, but every single one of the four games was closed. The Lakers had by far the best net rating against Denver. All the other teams kind of got their ass kicked in every single one of the games, aside from a couple

crazy Devin Booker hot shooting performances. Right, but Lebron is aging. He's gonna be in his twenty first season next year. Like if he makes it to the Western Conference Finals next year against Denver, he's gonna be thirty nine years old, like thirty nine, like are you kidding?

Speaker 2

You know?

Speaker 1

And so the Lakers would have to get much better this offseason to make up for that, but like, maybe Anthony Davis can make some improvements again. I see the Lakers as probably the biggest threat to Denver next year, but I don't view them as much of a threat. Phoenix needs like four more good players, and that's really hard to do in one offseason. Memphis I don't think is close, Sacramento's not close, Golden State needs to retool, the Clippers and Jay general. It's just a really tough

matchup with Denver. They really struggle with their size because they don't have interior size and rim protection. So really, aside from a massive trade, like a league altering trade, I really think Denver has a chance to go sixty plus wins and defend their title next year. Now, in the long run, I don't view this team as unbeatable, and I do think that. I don't view them ripping off three four championships in a row or anything like that, but I do think repeating is a really really good

chance for this Denver team. So congrats to Nuggets. Fans, You guys have an awesome team. You guys have an awesome player in the Kole Jokics that I've really enjoyed watching. In the next few years are going to be a ton of fun. Again, Like I think the title is sacred. I know some of you Nuggets fans are frustrated with some of my predictions this year. I feel like I've tried my best to explain them to you. Like I have rules. I have rules for my show. I'm always

going to favor champions. So, yeah, did I really think Anthony Davis was going to play better than Nikole Jokic in the Western Conference Finals.

Speaker 2

No.

Speaker 1

I was hoping he'd keep it close, which he didn't. But going into the series eighty's a champion Yokic is not.

Speaker 2

For me.

Speaker 1

That meant something. I understand that for some of you guys, you have different rules and you don't see it that way. That's totally fair, but that's the way I see it, and that same benefit will benefit Jokic in the long run.

Speaker 2

When Luca next year.

Speaker 1

Is having an amazing season and he's in the Western Conference Finals against Denver and all these talking heads are like, Luca's the best player in the series. I'm gonna be like, no, Jokic is the best player. He's a champion, Luca's not. That's just my way of kind of working these things out. It was never it was never a hate for Yokic thing. I had some Milkich fans say, or Denver fans be like, well,

why did you have him seven before the season? Again, I told you guys, I don't typically I typically don't value centers very much. So I had Jokic and them beat very low. If you guys remember, and I had all wings higher up on the list, Well, guess what we've learned. Like, my big thing is, like Colin Coward used to say this forever on a show, it's not about getting it right, it's about being or it's not about being right. It's about getting it right. Like, I

don't care about being right. Predictions are silly. I'll be honest with you, Nuggets fans, Like, as wrong as I was about Denver, How wrong were you guys about Miami? Did you pick Miami to beat Milwaukee? How wrong were you guys about the Lakers? Like I know a lot of you guys were really down on the Lakers during the regular season, said things like they're not going to make the playoffs, or they're not capable of beating anybody. Well, they made it to the Western Conference finals, you know,

So like predictions are silly, and that's fine. This is sports. I love that sports is unpredictable. If it was predictable, we'd all be in Vegas making bets. You guys have heard me say that before. So like, at the end of the day, it wasn't any insult to Denver fans. It's just the way that I personally make these predictions. I always have favored champions. That's why I had Milwaukee and Golden State as teams that I thought had a

better chance to win a title than Denver. This year, I favored those teams the Lakers in Lebron James and Anthony Davis. I had seen those two guys win a championship together with good with good role players, so I was partial to that particular team. Even with my prediction, I picked the Nuggets in every single round except for the Lakers round. Even there, I was going with NBA history.

Every NBA champion in the last several decades has had elite rim protection and an elite defensive front line, and the Lakers did and Denver did not. Now I was wrong, I learned, But what we're gonna do on this show is we're going to adjust over the years as we learn more information. I used to think centers weren't very valuable, so I had Jokic at seven and then beat at eight. But then what happened. Jokic clearly demonstrated that he's better than all the dudes in front of him. So now

I'm gonna have Yokic at number one. I'm I'm just reacting to new information, and that's what I'm going to continue to do over the years. And Jokic, to me, has earned a whole lot of leeway going into next I don't care if he's averaging fifteen points a game in March, and I don't care if Lucas kicking everyone's ass. To me, the trophy is sacred. To me, everything about what we do in sports is about winning. Now, there are other things in the game that we should enjoy

and appreciate, but winning is always the main thing. And if you don't make it sacred, then you cheapen it. And I don't want that. When Yokic is sitting there, holding the Finals MVP Trophy. To me, that moment is so incredibly sacred that if we apply the requisite amount of appreciation and respect to it, it makes it mean something, which is what I always want. I always want it

to mean something. I don't want Jokic to be forgotten next year just because he's coasting through the regular season while other dudes are trying hard because they haven't won the trophy yet. That's just the way that we do things on this show. But at the end of the day, like I always have loved this Nuggets team, I've always known they were capable of winning. I had a list of eight teams that could win the title going in. The Nuggets were on that list. I just gave preferential

treatment to teams that had won. Now Denver's one of those teams, and they're going to be one of those teams that I favor moving forward. All right, So before we get out of here, I wanted to just kind of shout out you guys. So this is the end of my third full season covering the league, my second season covering the league with the volume. I take this shot very seriously, As you guys know, I devote a ton of time to it. We did more than one

show per day during this postseason run. Ryan and I Ryan Brumley, and we're going to talk about some of the staff here in just a minute, but Ryan's was my first producer when I started with the volume. He's become a very good friend of mine. Him and I sat down in October and we were like, what are our goals for this season? And we had a really lofty one. We wanted to average over one hundred thousand

views per day on YouTube in the playoffs. The time, it seemed insane because in the playoff run last year, like we hit one hundred k a few times, but it was pretty rare and we certainly weren't averaging anywhere close to that, and it was lofty, and but we worked extremely hard at it, and we ended up accomplishing that goal. We averaged over one hundred thousand views per day in this postseason run. And to me, I'm just

I can't believe it. I can't believe that. The way that you guys care about the way that I want to talk about the game, it evalidates some stuff for me, because, like I remember when I got into this business, like so many people were just focusing on drama and focusing on hot takes and debate shows are ruling the business right now, and like, I just wanted to come in and talk about the game the way that I wanted to talk about the game, and keep it about basketball

as much as possible while also sprinkling in some of the bigger picture stuff that I've always loved as a kid, being a fan end of the league. And to see you guys return that to me with your support over the course of this year has been a really humbling experience, and honestly, it's been one of the greatest joys of my entire life to build this show and to have your guys' support, And I'm incredibly thankful for you. I'm incredibly excited for what we can accomplish in the next

couple of years. We got to come up with the even loftier goal for next year when we're sitting in the chair at this point. But I just hope you guys know how much I appreciate you.

Speaker 2

Guys.

Speaker 1

I read the YouTube comments almost every single video, so if you've said I will say, like this, one of the things that sucks about this job is it's sports, right like like, let's say, for instance, you're a Denver fan and you didn't like something I said about Jokic, Like it's just a It's a basketball opinion, right, like it's a basketball opinion. I can't tell you how many times I get direct messages or or mentions from people that.

Speaker 2

Say awful, awful, awful.

Speaker 1

Things to me about sports opinion, And every single time it was evened out by the hundreds and hundreds of you guys who said incredibly kind things to me and thanked, thanked me and told stories about how you've get One of my favorite types of comments to receive is when you guys say that you love the game more because

of what I'm saying. That to me is the best compliment you can possibly pay me, because I love the game so much and I want the game to grow, and to see it grow, even just within the context of this show is really really cool. And so for all of you guys who said kind things to me over the years, over the year and sent me kind to direct messages in nice YouTube comments, I just want you guys to know how much I appreciate you guys, and I look forward to continuing this journey with you.

Guys the team. So Ryan Brumley, like I said, he's our lead producer. He's been incredibly valuable to me personally and just helping manage the grind of the season and help keep me with the positive attitude and obviously helps to kind of focus and funnel my view of basketball into a version of the show that actually works and is successful in the in the modern media landscape. Paul Farrington,

he's our big YouTube guy. He again, if I'm working two videos a day and three videos a day sometimes and staying up super light, He's always staying up super late with me to make sure that that content gets out and puts all the chapter markers in there and does all those things that make the show work. A shout out to Paul Carson Breb He was a big time guest on the show this year. Helps me a lot with some of the nitty gritty stuff that I don't get to spend as much time on, particularly like

the draft and some player development stuff. I think he's one of the smartest basketball minds out there, one of the best young basketball minds that we have covering the league.

And I was skiing down in Whistler for my wife's thirtieth birthday when I got a call from one of my bosses when he told me that Carson and Nerd Sessh was getting picked up by the Volume and he had a show, and I was I was so so happy for Carson because he just deserves it and it's really cool to see him have a show at the Volume now as well. Shout out to Logan Camden as well, to guys are awesome and I'm excited to work with

you guys covering the draft next week. Josh Rodriguez another guy who helped a lot, especially just with filling gaps when guys were in and out of town for vacation. And then Josh Goldman mainly an idea guy, just helping us kind of come up with things to talk about during the season. And the lastly, mister Logan Swam, the

head of content here at the Volume. And then mister Colin Coward for making my dream come true by giving me this opportunity and every single day I get to talk about basketball, which is like literally I just feel incredibly lucky and blessed to do so. And I couldn't have done it without those two guys, So shout out to the team again, Like, I know, it's just me here talking on the camera, but there's a lot of guys behind the scenes that make this whole thing work.

Off season plan. This week, we're doing a Lessons we Learned video Probably tomorrow or the next day. We might hit some trade free agency stuff if something interesting comes down over the course of the next couple of days, just quickly before I head of town. I go out to town on Friday to Montana, and I'm gonna be gone through next Wednesday, and unless there's huge breaking news.

Speaker 2

I'm just gonna take a break.

Speaker 1

I'm a little burnt out after how much we worked over the course of this postseason run, so I'm going to take a break. But we will be back on Thursday next week for a draft show that night, a live draft show. We're gonna be doing it with the Nerd SASH guys and callin Cowards, so that should be fun. Then free agency on July first, and it'll be a little weird because I'm out of town in Texas for my cousin's wedding. I had a bunch of people in my mentions going like, why are you Cowboys fan? And

a Lakers fan? Well, I'm a Lakers fan because of Lebron. I'm a Cowboys fan because my entire family is in the Dallas Fort Worth area. Both of my older siblings were actually born there. I was born right after we moved to Tucson. But the Dallas Cowboys are a big cultural thing in my family. But I'm in Texas, so our free agency coverage might be a little delayed, just

by a few hours. Like I think July first is the is when free agency starts, and the weddings that day, so I probably won't be covering that until the following morning. Then we're doing Summer League. We're actually going out to Summer League. I think the Nerd Sash guys are coming to. I think Live Moods is coming, so we're gonna do a bunch of I think Chris Mannix is out there too. We've got the Blue Wires Studio in the win for a couple of days, so we're gonna do a bunch

of stuff out in Vegas for summer League. Come say hi too if you see me. I'll probably be down at the UNLV Rec Center playing some basketball. If you guys want to come play some pickup and then I'll be always hanging out in the arena. Just follow me on Twitter, you'll get to see where i'm at. Come by, say hi, I really want to meet some of you guys. And then I'm going out of town for a couple of weeks in the middle of July to San Francisco

for the final Dead and Company show. And then I'm going to Japan with my wife for a week, so we'll miss some time there in the middle of July. But then I'm in town for pretty much the rest of the summer. I got a lot of big plans. We're gonna be doing all time player rankings, current player rankings, ranking, Playoff run, and then once we get into that second half of September, that's when we'll start our season preview shows focusing on the top teams in the league. All right, guys,

another season in the books. The volume

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