Hoops Tonight - Why LeBron, AD & Russ' phone call means nothing, James Harden's real problem

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third full day starting here on the lake. We're taking a catamaran up further up the lake to go into Cascades National Park, um to hit some picnic areas and stuff up there. Looking forward to that. It's been a lot of fun. I tried waters excuse me, wakeboarding for the first time ever. Yesterday did not go well. I tried at least a half dozen times to get out of the water and there's some like fundamental thing that

I'm missing. Um, I kept getting the boards sucked under the water and I just couldn't get up, And uh, that was really frustrating for me because typically I've been able to pick up athletic things pretty quickly, Like I picked up skiing quickly, you know, I pick up sports quickly typically. But wakeboarding kicked my ass yesterday. I'm gonna try it again, hopefully this afternoon. We'll see how that goes.

But vacations going great, having a good time. A couple more days on the lake here before we get going on the cruise to Alaska. Quick hitter today, don't have a ton of time. I want to touch on the latest Russell Westbrook report briefly. I want to touch on this hardened report about him taking a discount, because I think it's kind of getting weird a little bit. I was applauding it at first, but out starting to get a little weird, and then I'm dying to talk some basketball.

This this whole phase of this summer reminds me of right when I started with the volume, where it was like all Star break and the Lakers were tanking and we were doing the Lakers Tonight thing, and it was like every night was just like Russell Westbrook drama and Lakers front office drama and all that kind of crap. And don't get me wrong, it's part of the job. But you guys know me, I want to talk to basketball. So I wanted to get into something basketball related today.

And so there was a debate going around on Twitter having to do with the the ball Don't stop guy uh and some of his anti analytics argument, which I think is almost like overreaction to that whole situation. But I wanted to give my two cents on just the way that the role that analytics plays in basketball. Um, so that's what we're gonna hit today. Remember, you guys know the drill. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on

Twitter at underscore Jason Lts. You guys don't miss any video content that I released, show announcements, things along those lines. And the last but not least, if you guys miss any portion of this video for any reason, it will get re released as a podcast on our podcast feed, which is under hoops Tonight. So let's start with the

Rush report. Now, there were two Rush reports that came out yesterday, my friend Jovan Bua with the with the Athletic released another report, Uh not not a ton of new information, just basically stating that the Russell Westbrook situation

is about to get a whole lot worse. Then we get this Chris Haynes report about a phone call that took place betwe Lebron, James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook where they reaffirmed their commitment to one another to try to make this work, which had a couple of massive

red flags right at the beginning. First of all, the phone call allegedly took place during the opening weekend of NBA Summer League, which is literally when Lebron and Russell Westbrook were sitting on opposite ends of the arena, not communicating with each other. So that's strange. If you guys had just reaffirmed your commitment to each other, you probably

would have some kind of interaction on the court. And then secondly, it's it kind of reminds me of some of the other uh narrative controlling moves that we saw in the last couple of weeks, where it's like, how stupid do you think we are, Like, you guys just played a full NBA season together. How many countless times did you guys have conversations about how you might try to make things work and try to smooth this out

and persevere through the trouble? Like this isn't gonna be the time that you guys suddenly come together and figure it out. You guys had plenty of chances, and we're not fallen for that. Um So, to make a long story short, it's pretty clear that it's a leverage play. I've heard from some people who are connected to the situation that it is a leverage play. This report from Chris Haynes is a deliberate attempt from the Lakers two

seed back leverage in the situation. Here's where that's a problem. Uh, them fighting for more leverage tells me that they're still withholding that second pick, which means they still haven't acknowledged

the realities of their specific leverage dynamic. We went into this and detailed a couple of days ago, so I won't go super deep into it again, but the gist of it is the Lakers, Ever, it's the worst kept secret in the league that nobody on the team wants him anymore, that all of these attempts to fluff him up our leverage moves, they don't have any sort of of real ability to convince the league that they want Russ.

And then we go to the other side, and with Kyrie irving in his trade value being as low as it's ever been in the same going for Ben Simmons, it's actually advantageous for the Nets to bring everybody back because if you can get them to play some basketball, but probably inflate their trade value. So the trade leverage dynamic is very clearly in Brooklyn's favor. And so for the Lakers to continually be fighting for to to control the narrative of the leverage tells me that they haven't

acknowledged their reality yet. And that's the problem. Acknowledge the reality you have to pay to get rid of Russ. You were smart and and and you were sound in the sense in your original approach to try to fight for the one pick that ship has sailed. Now every passing day is a greater risk that Kevin Durant will change his mind and decide to return. You just got to put the second pick on the table and try

to make this thing happen. Now, well, they they might still wait for the KD move to happen before they agree to that deal, but it's just to me it's worth throwing it out there, and it's obvious that they haven't. Otherwise they wouldn't be fighting for leverage the way that they are. Hopefully we're getting to the end of this eventually. I have continued to hear from people connected that the Lakers want to get rid of us, that that's their number one priority. So stop trying to lie to all

of us. Just bite the bullet and make the thing happen. Um, Let's move on to the hard and discounting for a minute. So you know, there's the report that came out was basically originally heard that he was going to take a discount as much as fifteen million dollars. I'm not sure if that was fifteen million per year or fifteen million for the whole contract. Then we get this report that um, that he's working closely with Darryl Morey and the rest

of the franchise to try to make something happen. Then we hear yesterday that he wants the Sixers to sign everybody, and I'll have what's left over. It's starting and you know, hard and having quotes like like, oh, my number one goal is winning a championship. Bla blah blah blah. It's starting to take on a little bit of like a narrative controlling vibe in and of itself, because the reality is is, like the Sixers cap situation is not a situation where they just have a ton of cap space

available to go sign an expensive player. That's not the case. So I'm not mistaken. As of right now, even without Harden on the books at all whatsoever, they have little to no cap space available. So they were already operating on the margins. They were already operating with things like veteran minimum exceptions and UH and taxpayer exceptions and trades and things along those lines. They've already signed pieces. They've signed Daniel House and p J. Tucker to kind of

fill in that Danny Green role. There's not some monumental change that the Sixers can make to the roster based on James Harden taking a discount. That's not that's not a real outcome in this situation. So it kind of feels preachy at this point, like he's trying to like rub in our face. The fact that he's taking a discount. My thing is like, that's that's misdirection. That's all not important. The Sixers don't have a talent problem. This team has

tons of talent. I talked about that NonStop during the season. Last year they might have had the most talented starting five in all of basketball with Tyres Maxie, Danny Green, Tobias Harris, James Harden, and Joel Embiid. Talents not an issue. Tobias I always talk about when I'm like piecing together a basketball team, you want like a go to three level score. You want like a guy who really understands the flow of the game. It can be a playmaker. You want a guy who can like be a rim

pressuring forward that can punish mismatches off the dribble. And then you want to have all of the length and athleticism defensively to do all the things that you need to do. The Sixers have all of that. Joel Embiide is a fantastic three level score. We're gonna talk a little bit about him here in a minute. James Harden is a great playmaker and game manager and a guy who can help generate quality shots over the course of

the game to elevate your shot quality. Tobias Harris is a textbook mismatch attack, a mismatch attacking role player forward. Obviously there are better scoring forwards in the league, but Tobias Harris is as good as you will find in a supporting role at being able to create baskets against mismatches and to do all the things at that big swing forwards can do. You know, they have a ton

of length and athleticism all over the floor. They've got three and D players and guys that can guard multiple positions. I really liked the Daniel House and p J. Tucker signings to improve the toughness of the team, you know, because that's somewhat of a weakness with James Harden and Joel Embiid. You know, p J. Tucker and Daniel House can kind of be that personality for them. This roster has everything that they need. This is not a talent issue.

The reality is is James Harden needs to get healthy, figure out the hamstring thing, and try to regain as much burst as possible. Why is that Because the Sixers have such good supporting players, guys like Tyrese Maxie, guys like Tobias Harris obviously, Joel embiid that if if James Harden can make that initial dribble penetration more consistent to get the defense in rotation, you will be playing against

a rotating defense with extreme high level offensive talent. With Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie and Joel Embiat and all these guys. The problem was last year James Harden could not consistently generate that rim pressure because he didn't have the foot speed. He's not old enough. I think he's only thirty two. He's not old enough to be this slow, to be this much on the downslope of his career. His injuries haven't been bad enough to explain that type

of drop off. So as much as I appreciate his willingness to take a discount, and I'm not undercutting that, even though I think he's playing it up for the narrative a little bit, the more important factor here is James Harden really diving into taking care of his body in a way that he didn't earlier in his career. He was younger, he could get away with the lifestyle

that he lived. No longer the case embraced that, get in shape in a way that you haven't in your career, regain that foot speed in that first step, the ability to because again, if this guys like Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie, if they're attacking a set defense, they're gonna have limitations because they aren't superstar level players. But if you get to Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie attacking compromise defense, attacking a defense, and rotation attacking with an advantage, those

are those guys are gonna thrive in that setting. So you need since Joel embiad is not great at accepting double teams and kicking the ball out, you need James Harden to create that initial advantage. UM, So keep an eye on his physical health over the course of this next a couple of seasons. That'll be a much more clear indicator of where James Harden's focus is at UM With Joel Embiid, I think it's time for him to start crafting his game around the postseason. And we've talked

about this a lot. This was an issue James Harden that earlier in his career, we haven't really had a chance to see him kind of fulfill that need. But with Joel Embid the foul baiting. You know, I got in trouble with with some embiad fans, But this is the truth. He's not as good at putting the ball in the basket as his peers. Okay, like guys like Nicola Yo Kitchen, other big rim pressuring guys like Janice

and Lebron. They're shooting in the restricted area, They're shooting in the mid from the field, they're They're effective field goal percentage is between fifty five and sixty. Their true shooting percentages over sixty. These guys are remarkably efficient at actually putting the basketball in the basket. Okay, Joel Embiid manufactures a lot of points through his ability to put defenders in a tough spot and draw fouls, but as we know, that's not a reliable way to score the

basketball in the postseason. He needs to get away from that a little bit and start crafting his game towards actually reliable things in the postseason, which is putting the ball in the ba ask it irrespective of what the ref gives you with the whistle. That is drawing double teams and being able to navigate the double teams so that you can keep the defense in rotation so that Tobias Harris, James Harden and Tyrese Maxie are attacking with

an advantage. Those are things that are guaranteed to work in the postseason. Needs are proven methods, proven that that will that you can rely on and lean on in hard moments in a playoff series. The make no mistake, the only thing standing between the Sixers and winning a title is the realized version of James Harden and Joel Embiat at the top of their games. It's not James Harden taking a discount. You can get one more role player. It's not gonna be how well Daniel House or p J.

Tucker play. It's not gonna be what Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxie do. If James Harden can recapture what he was athletically in two thousand eighteen, and if Joel Embiid can man, you can cultivate a place aisle that actually succeeds in the postseason geared around putting the ball in the basket rather than getting to the free throw line. If they do that, the Sixers have more than enough talent to win. Those are the guys to watch, don't get distracted by all of this, like taking a discount,

loading up the roster. It comes down to those two guys and then getting the job done. All right, let's do this analytics stuff and then let's get out of here. So again, what the debate was. I can't remember exactly the grounds for what caused the conversation on Twitter, but I believe the gist of it was was a a analytics heavy guy. I believe it was Seth part Now said that he would rather have I want to say it was Herb Jones in a I can't remember exactly what it was, but it was like a three in

D guy. Oh no, that's what it was. Dorian Phinney Smith. He said, in a supporting role on a team, He'd rather have a Dorian Phinney Smith than a Brandon Ingram. And it was based on like the analytics, and then of course comes the the ball don't stop guy coming in, like just trashing those guys for not watching the games and being stuck in the numbers. And it's kind of a low brow conversation. And that's why I never engage in it, because no one's getting any smarter it's just

people yelling at each other from two absurd perspectives. But that dynamic is very interesting to me because like I'm I'm not an old man yelling on his port. I'm not the guy that's like, um, you know, like this is the way that we should do things, and and we should never do These young guys in their perspective doesn't matter. That's not one of my perspective here. I am a big believer in utilizing every resource at your

disposal to try to gain an edge. And if that means that you have a team of of of people who are great with statistical analysis in your building, then that's great. I think that that should be a part of of any well meaning and and and well run NBA organization. My issue is the the pursuit of something that I don't think is achievable with analytics. So with baseball, the situation is far more static. It's a picture of

as a hitter. There are different types of pictures, right, lefties, right, these hard throwers, you know, guys who rely on movement pitches, Um, guys that are contact pictures, guys that deliberately throw sinker balls and and uh to uh to seeing fastballs and things that are designed to get the batter to hit groundballs right, to to get ground out, to get through the game. Then there are you know, strikeout pittures, guys that are heavier on movement and speed and are primarily

trying to get swinging misses. Right. There's all these different factors, but it's a lot easier to try to put those factors together into a single number that can quantify the impact that a hitter has because of the smaller number of factors. Basketball is just too complicated for that. Where my my where I separate from analytics, the analytics movement in the n b A is the incessant desire to assign a single metric to capture a player's impact because

I think there's too much at play. To me, it's almost like basketball blasphemy. It's trying to understand something that's impossible to understand. There are ten players on the floor that have an impact on a single basketball possession, so it is and over the course of a hundred possessions in a game. It's not three to four at bats, it's a hundred possessions, right, So Like from that standpoint, I don't think it's possible to quantify a player's impact

with one UM with one UH number. To take it even further, in baseball, the dynamic never shifts. It's always pitch or hit or pitch or hitter, right, It's always that same dynamic of trying to UH to make contact with the baseball. With basketball, each dynamic can be different. A player can be attacking in isolation. A player can be attacking and pick and roll. A player can be

attacking in a post up. A player can be attacking in a closeout situation, like for instance, if Kawhi Leonard is a primary defender on Lebron James in a post up, that is one way that Kauai is a primary defender. What if acquires a primary defender and Kyrie Irving just drove to the basket and kicked it to Lebron, and

now Kauai is closing out on Lebron. Lebron has an advantage, So lumping that in as a lumping that in and Kauai's individual defense number doesn't make any sense because what if it happens to be a game where Kyrie is getting constant dribble penetration and Kauai's closing out all night long. Versus a game where Kyrie doesn't have it going and

Lebron's isolating Kawhi Leonard all night long. Versus a play where Lebron's running high pick and roll with Anthony Davis and their big man can't switch, so they don't switch the screens, so they running drop coverage. Now Kauai Leonards trying to fight over the top of ball screens all night long. None of these possessions are the same. There are way more moving parts. It's far more difficult to quantify those things, So I I disagree with the the I believe it's kind of like, uh, it's it's it's

fighting a losing battle. In my opinion, trying to quantify those things. Where I really like analytics in basketball is trying to find static situations. So, for instance, like if I know that if I have Lebron James and Anthony Davis running pick and roll and it's primarily resulting and switches, and as a result, because of the switches, it's ending in isolation possessions and we're getting fewer points per possession.

But if I run the screen and roll with Damian Jones, they don't switch it because it's a slower center, so we're running drop coverage. So we're getting more more points per possession. If a if a analytics guy in my office can come into my can come into my office and say, hey, you know, we're getting an additional three tenths of a point per possession on pick and rolls with Damian Jones and we are with Anthony Davis. Because with Anthony Davis, they're just switching it versus with Damian Jones,

they're running drop coverage. That's an example of trying to focus the power of our statistical analysis at something that is quantifiable and going from there. You know, Lebron like, hey, when we post up Anthony Davis on the left block, he sees the double teams better because he can throw the pass, or let's say it's with the right block, because he can throw the pass with his right hand.

He's getting you know, one point four points per possession on post ups on the right block, but zero point nine points per possessions on the left block because he's not passing well out of it. He's not seeing the floor as well, or he likes going to his turnover turnaround over his right shoulder and he's more comfortable doing that towards the middle of the floor, So we want to post him on the left block. Using data to try to navigate those little details in the game. I

think it's really smart. That is quantifiable. And also that's just the scoreboard. You guys hear me always talk about offensive rating, defensive rating, net rating. Those sound like fancy words, and they come with fancy fancy uh you know way of saying it, right, Like one point four points per possession sounds fancy, right. That's the scoreboard. That's all that is. That's how many times are you putting the ball in the basket versus how many times he tried. That's not

that's not nearly as convoluted as it sounds. It's pretty straightforward. And and using that kind of data um to me is it actually adds real substance to the discussion. And and I think, you know, I think it's important for us to to, you know, whenever something new comes to the table, acknowledge the good parts about it and acknowledge the bad parts about It's like with social media. With social media can add to our lives in a lot

of different ways. Hell, it's empowered me to become a content creator in a way that I might not have been able to ten years ago. Right, But the flip side of that is it can cause mental health problems, Like I have to do things like be careful with how much I read YouTube comments or read mentions because you know, obviously I'm a tough guy. I can handle it.

But like, man, if I look at too much negativity, you can wear you down a little bit, right, Like there's with anything, you gotta acknowledge the good and acknowledge the bad and try to gear yourself towards the good. Right, And that's kind of the way I feel about the analytics movement, like accept its strengths and weaknesses, apply the strengths, but don't waste your energy on the resource on the

on the weaknesses. And I just I I have I have a really hard time personally for me, uh like rolling scrolling through Twitter and seeing guys gearing entire basketball discussions around like catch all metrics, Like here's this singular metric that captures what Nicola Yoki is as a basketball player. No, man, no, Nikola Yoks doesn't play anything like any other player in the league. He is a complete unicorn. Nobody plays basketball

the way that he does. If you're trying to assign a metric that compares him directly to a Lebron James, you're fighting a losing battle. There, there's no point. And so I'd like to see I just like to see a little bit more. Um, I think I think the pendulum has swung too far. It was too old fashioned. We've swung too far into leaning too heavily into that stuff. Acknowledge that the game of basketball is a beautiful and

complicated thing. And and and let's direct our resources appropriately and never ever ever let basketball, the actu little game of basketball itself fall into the background. It should always stay in the foreground. Um. All right, that's all I have for today. We're gonna I'm gonna keep doing these throughout the trip, and I'm gonna I'm gonna try to counteract as much of the um uh, the drama with

some basketball, just for the sake of my sanity. Also, guys, please suggestions if there are things that you guys want me to talk about on the show, If there are specific topics that you guys find interesting, I may not be able to hit them at the start of the show, but I can hit them at the end if if they're a little bit more niche in the in their in their focus. But um, as always, I appreciate your

guys support. You guys know the drill. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels so you don't miss any more of our content. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason LT. And, last but not least, if you miss part of the show and you want to hear the podcast version, you can check it out on our podcast feed, which is under groops Tonight. Al right, guys, we'll see you in a couple of days. The Volume