Hoops Tonight - Why Celtics will steamroll Heat, will Pelicans upset Thunder?

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Playoffs day. We have a jam packed slate. We're going live after the final game of the night, which is the Nuggets versus the Lake, but we'll be breaking down all four games this video today gonna just go quickly for probably about twenty minutes on the two to one versus eight matchups. Now, I want you guys to bear

with me. Obviously, under the circumstances. We got these matchups last night, we got games starting here at one o'clock Eastern today, so these are not gonna be anywhere near as detailed as the series previews that I did for the other six series but I did want to make sure that I give you guys just my initial thoughts on these series, and obviously we'll be covering them as we go along. You guys know the drip before we get started. Subscribe to our brand new YouTube channel so

you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget a better podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops tonight. It's also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. In the last not least, keep dropping mailbag questions and those YouTube comments. We're gonna be doing some mail bags over the course of the postseason. So here's

the deal. We're gonna start with Heat Celtics. Really quick thoughts there, because that series is by far the most lopside. I did a series that we have in the first round after that, Pelican's Thunder, and I have seven clips that will go through just a quick again, nowhere near as much detail as the other ones, but I just want to give you some clips that I that I saw from my film session this morning. I did look at a little bit of film be between those two teams.

So well again Heat Celtics, then we'll go Pelicans Thunder, and then a little bit of film. So on the Heat Celtics series. The Celtics won the season series three games to zero. They had a one thirty offensive rating and a one to fifteen defensive ratings, so they completely dominated the matchup. Dominated the glass as well. They grabbed fifty five point two percent of available rebounds. The gambling

odds are insane. According to DraftKings right now, the Celtics are minus three thousand favorites, so that is by far the largest favorite that we have in the first round. It was a big talent mismatch before Terry Rozier and Jimmy Butler got hurt. Now it's just a complete disaster. Miami just doesn't have the horses to hang in this series.

Come really isn't in question. The Celtics are gonna win. The question is what value can be gained from either team. So I just want to kind of give you guys my two cents on that. First of all, starting with Boston, you got to win the games within the game, And what I mean by that is we know Eric Spolstra regardless of what I just said is going to tell his team that he believes they can win, and so they're going to prepare as though they're going to win.

And I expect the classic Eric Spolser defensive game plan. I expect to see a lot of zone in the half court. I expect to see some man demand full court pressure. I expect to see some zone full court pressure that drops back into his zone. I expect a bunch of different coverages. I expect Eric Spolstra to try to like basically make the series as janky as possible in hopes of giving his team a chance to keep

these games competitive. So, as the Celtics, you got to take that as a challenge, meaning like, regardless of what the results of these games are, because you can piss down your leg against Spoe's zone and still win the series. But take that as the challenge, meaning like, win those games within the game, be able to respond quickly and effectively to the adjustments that Eric exposed from makes. Secondly,

establishing championship habits. The Celtics will have one of the easiest paths to the Conference finals that you could ever hope to expect in this era of NBA basketball. With how much talent there is. Even with my criticisms of the Eastern Conference, I do think there are five pretty damn good teams in the conference. I think Boston's good, I think Milwaukee's good, I think Inyana is good, I think Philly's good, and I think New York is good. Those are good teams, but all four that are not

Boston are stacked up on the opposite side of the bracket. Orlando, Cleveland, and Miami are by far the three worst teams in that Eastern Conference playoff field, and so as a result, the Celtics are going to go basically the first month of the postseason without facing a real team. But when they get to the Eastern Conference Finals, it's gonna be one of Indye, Milwaukee, New York, or Philly, probably the

best team in that group. And then if you make it to the NBA Finals, you're gonna face either Denver, the defending champion, who I think is the best team in the league, or the team that beat Denver and survived that ridiculous gauntlet of Western Conference teams. And even those other four teams out East Indiana, Milwaukee, and New

York and Philly. I think all of the top seven teams in the Western Conference, so the Lakers, the MAVs, the Suns, the Clippers, the thunder, the Timberwolves, and the Nuggets. I think all seven of those teams are as good or better than that tier of teams that is in the Eastern Conference. So you're gonna face somebody that's really good in the conference finals, in someone that's amazing in the NBA Finals, right, So what that means is you're gonna go from two pretty easy series to two really

tough series. And what that means is you have to be ready when you get to that point. Whoever comes out of that gauntlet on the opposite side of the Eastern Conference bracket is going to be coming off of four straight weeks of high intensity, high leverage basketball, while

you're going to be playing primarily unthreatened basketball. So what that means is, in order to avoid falling into an early hole in the conference finals, or if you do happen to do well there, to fall into an early hole in the NBA Finals, you have to start establishing

habits right now. Do not play down to the competition approach things with the requisite urgency and professionalism that appropriate fear so to speak, so that when you get to the really good opponents that you'll face late later on in your playoff run, you're ready for that challenge. That's going to be a big thing I'm looking for from Boston on the Miami front. To me, this is more

of just a learning experience about their shot creators. Tyler Harrow is going to be your primary perimeter initiator in this series for a legit playoff series against an elite defense. That's the first time he's ever going to get that challenge, and we're going to get to learn a lot about Tyler Harrow in that kind of context. Right Specifically, Boston has a tendency they'll run drop with Porzingis, but they have lineups that they'll go to and they may do

more switching over the course of the series. And Tyler Harrow's biggest weakness right now is he kind of needs a screen to get to his spots, and so that's going to be an interesting challenge for Tyler Harrow in this series. And then bam Adebayo as well, like, this is a guy that the head have spent a long time trying to develop into a higher level offensive player and he's continued to run into kind of hiccups along

the way. This is a series where he can try to demonstrate a higher level offensive output, But the truth is this is just a complete and total talent mismatch. So I expect the Celtics to sweep the Miami Heat. As a matter of fact, the odds for a sweep on DraftKings are plus one zh five, which is nearly even odds to get a sweep from the Celtics. It feels like the most likely scenario now, moving on Pelicans Thunder.

As I told Pelicans fans after the Lakers kicked the shed out of him on Sunday, I said that the perfect set of circumstances for you guys would be to lose to the Lake again on Tuesday, because you would run into a series of matchups that would be favorable to you. Even if Golden State had managed to beat Sacramento, which they didn't, Golden State's another team that kind of runs into the strengths that New Orleans brings to the table again. New Orleans' strength is perimeter defense. They have

a lot of length and quickness on the perimeter. They get aggressive, they apply ball pressure, they force turnovers, they run out in transition. They're actually a very similar type of defense to the Oklahoma City Thunder, just with a

little bit more length as opposed to strength. But the primary kind of matchup thing there was both the Kings and the Warriors are primarily initiated by perimeter finesse guards, right, and so as a result of that, you know, the Pelicans are able to contain their offense right of all of the matchups. And here's the thing, the Thunder are the better team. They're the better basketball team than the

New Orleans Pelicans. They deserve to be favored, but they do fit into the archetype of team that the Pelicans have had some against, So I view this as the best possible outcome for them. I think they would have just gotten steamrolled by the Denver Nuggets, but I do think they have a chance to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder as as a matter of fact, like they're eight and one against the Warriors and the Kings this year.

They're three and one against the Clippers too. So again, when you have teams that are initiated by finesse players from the perimeter, it plays directly into New Orleans's strengths and Oklahoma City is led by a finesse guard and Shake Gills with Alexander. Now that said, the season series went to the Thunder this year two to one. Their last matchup though, was in late March. That was during Zion's kind of tear through the league when he was

doing so much more on the basketball. No Brandon Ingram was in that game, but Zion was in obviously. The Pels had a late lead in that game and Oklahoma City basically stole it on a couple of late threes by SHAKEE Gills, Alexander and lou Dort. So Thunder won the season series two to one. But that last game in particular was super competitive and the Pells could have easily won it. They just, you know, a couple shots go the different way, so a little more competitive than

it might seem on the surface. One of the advantages there. We have some good crunch time possessions for us to look at, which I'll show you guys on film here in a little bit. Gambling odds, Oklahoma City is minus seven hundred. I think that's crazy, Like Oklahoma City is the better team and they deserve to be favored. But I think the Pelicans have just as good of a chance to beat the Thunder as the Lakers do to

beat the Nuggets. So like I would have put the line more in the minus three hundred minus four hundred kind of range. So it's a value bet for the Pelicans if you believe in the Pelicans, or less so about belief but more so about just betting value. That might be a line worth looking at quick. Look at the Thunder. On offense, it's gonna be about the Pelicans being able to keep excellent point of attack defenders on Shay at all times. It's gonna be steady dose of

Herb Jones at the start. I think Naji Marshall is gonna see a good amount of time. Dyson Daniels didn't play much in the playing game last night, but he's

another guy that I could see them potentially going to if Shay is getting too comfortable against those primary guys. The Pelicans are gonna help really hard off of Lou Dort and Josh Kitty. You'll see some examples when we get to the film. But they're gonna dig down on ball screens from the weak side. They're gonna load up on that strong side of the floor and they're gonna play a lot of two on one on the back line.

If they skit that skip pass across, they'll have Trey Murphy on the weak side, like close out to the passing lane and try to bait on Lou Dort and Josh Gitty's kind of indecisiveness that they can have sometimes over there. So again, rotation is gonna be key. And then as you as you can probably imagine, in my opinion, the biggest key of this series for the thunder On offense is going to be that weak side shooting of Lou Dort and Josh Kitty. If they're hitting shots, things

are gonna loosen up, everything's gonna be fine. But if they're not, and the Pelicans can load up the strong side, they're good enough at the point of attack that they can probably stag kind of like stall out this Thunder offense. So that week side shooting is going to be huge. The Thunder playing Jonas Valancunis off the floor was something that I noticed in the March game. You only played ten minutes and started the second h with Larry and Ants Junior instead, and so again that's gonna be an

interesting kind of thing. But I wonder if Zion being out changes that calculus at all. Moving to Pelicans on offense kind of similarly, I think one of the things I forgot to mention this in the in the last segment, but in the late game situation, there was a lot of effort from the Thunder to attack CJ McCollum. They kind of view that as the primary entry point, so like either Jalen would attack him directly or they get use a ball screen to get him switched on to

Shay and then Shaye would look to attack. But they're looking to attack c J McCollum, particularly in ball screens with Larry and Ants, trying to get CJ onto the primary ball handler then bring Larry and Ants into the screen with Chet. Similarly, with the Pelicans on offense, a lot of it is about c J McCollum trying to hunt Shake Gilds Alexander and Josh Gitty, similar kind of thing. He'll try to get Shay switched on to him and

then they'll bring Giddy into the screen. So it's their two what they perceive to be their two worst defenders in that unit that they're bringing into the action. Lou Dort is probably going to get the brandon Ingram assignment. He was guarding Zion a lot in the in the March game, but obviously with Zion being out, I think they're gonna go that towards dort On Ingram either way. Ironically, even if Zion, let's say Zion does make a return

late in the series. I actually was impressed with how Oklahoma City defended him in that fourth quarter in the March game. Jalen Williams and lou Dort both spent time on him there, and they did a good job just kind of flattening out his driving lanes and limiting some of his success there. As far as dort On Ingram, lou Dort's like a classic fire hydrant kind of guy, slides his feet well, absorbs contact and just kind of

forces guys to shoot over the top. But brandon Ingram's a professional over the top shooter, So that's a matchup. I think brandon Ingram will be okay. In The question is who's gonna guard CJ. McCollum, and my guess is it's probably gonna be Jalen Williams. I think we'll see some caseon Wallace off the bench in that matchup as well. Really, it's this simple to me. If CJ. McCollum and Brandon Ingram can consistently get the defense in rotation, the Pels

have some driving kick talent. Trey Murphy You'll see some examples on the film. Trey Murphy's good at pump faking and driving closeouts. And obviously, if CJ's starting the play or Brandon starting to play the other guys on the weak side as well, they have enough driving kick talent if they can get the defense in rotation. But that playmaking piece is going to be huge, and this is where Brandon Ingram comes in. Brandon Ingram's always been one of my favorite pick and roll passing wings that we

have in the league. He's got long arms and he's good at reading the low man and making that skip pass, which is the key to getting the defense in rotation. So I think Brandon Ingram's gonna play a significant role in this particular series as a primary shot creator. And ironically, you know Brandon Ingram's fit when Zion's role in the way that he is. It can be a little clunky sometimes, but with Zion being out it kind of plays directly into Brandon Ingram's strengths where he could be on the

ball more. I'm picking the Thunder, but the Pells do match up well, and they have a great home crowd, and they have more playoff experience. Brandon Ingram and c J mccoum have more reps in this type of environment, so I do think they're gonna be able to drag the series out, but I expect the Thunder to win. I'm picking them in six or seven games. All right, let's take a look at the film again. I only have seven clips to show you, guys. This is gonna

be pretty quick. This first one is an example of how the Pelicans will look to attack Oklahoma City in the half court, So watch out. CJ McCollum is gonna try because he's got Jaylen Williams on him. CJ mccom's gonna try to get Shay Gills Alexander switched on to him first, so they're gonna use herb Jones to set

the first screen and to get Shay switched. Once Jay is switched, then they're gonna bring Josh Giddy into the action with a ghost screen with Trey Murphy, and you'll see Trey Murphy's gonna run up set that ghost screen. That's gonna trigger the hedge from Giddy. That's gonna buy a close out situation for Trey Murphy. And now we can actually watch as Trey Murphy beats the clothes out to the left with a little pump fake draws Jalen Williams. Jaylen Williams, I should say and help drop off past

the Larry nance for the dunk. That's gonna be the most common type of attack that I think we'll see in the half court from the Pelicans, whether it's CJ or brandon Ingram. I think they're gonna try to keep Shay and Check or excuse me, Chay and Josh Getty involved in the action as much as possible. Here's an example of a defensive possession with her Herb Jones guarding Shake gild Alexander. They're also going to set a gohot

screen with with Jalen Williams. He's gonna come up and kind of fake like he's gonna set a screen and then slip out to the three point line. Watch Herb Jones, though he does a good job sliding his feet meeting him at spots, absorbing contact and he has the length to get good contests. It's not gonna be an easy first type of playoff matchup for Shay or herb Jones is a very very good defensive player. He's gonna make him work hard for his looks. Here's another late game

kind of shot making piece from CJ McCollum. This is gonna be I think again. Shot making for CJ and Brandon Ingram is gonna be key. They're gonna run a screening action, but they're gonna get Jalen Williams is gonna get through it, and then CJ is gonna go straight iso here. So again Larry Nance slips out of the screen. There's a dig down which is gonna cause a retreat dribble. Once the retreat dribble happens, there's only three point six seconds left on the shot clock, so CJ has to

make a play. But he gets he gets this. Look at that. That's a textbook example of elite ball handling. Watch Jalen Williams as he jumps up onto the right side. As soon as he jumps up, boom jumps up right. CJ immediately crosses back over to the right and beats him again. That's gonna be a huge piece of this series for the Pelicans. All Right, this is a big bucket from herb Jones against Shit, or excuse me, from Shay against herb Jones. We'll show you that he can

win that matchup sometimes too. I thought it was interesting the way the Pelicans guarded this. So we're essentially going to get a ball screen off of this kickout. We're gonna get a ball screen with Shay and Chad. Okay, what's interesting to me about this configuration is as Cheed is setting the ball screen, herb Jones is basically conceding the pull up three here, like he's not pressuring the ball. He's dropping back obviously, nance is there kind of like

in a little bit of like a high drop. But herb Jones is leaning back, he's on his heels, which basically allows this shot from Shay. I wonder if that's a game plan thing. I wonder if the Pelicans are going to try to turn Shaye into a three point shooter in this series, which may or may not work for them. We'll see. Here's another ghost screen with Trey Murphy, just to show you again how they're going to look

to attack. So this ghost screen comes from a flare screen as well, So as he slips out of the screen, he's gonna get a flare from Larry Nants right there. As he slips out, there's a baked in driving lane to the left right, so he rips left, but he sees Shay come over to tag Larry Nance right there. As he sees that, he throws the skip past to Herb Jones. It's gonna be a big thing for the

Thunder as well. How well can they contain these weak side close out opportunities from guy like Herb Jones And in this case they do a good job and force a turnover. Nice job from Shay. There, here's an example of those weak side two on ones. I was telling you guys about with the Thunder. So Shay's gonna beat Shay's gonna beat herb Jones with a with like I think he might be going against Trey Murphy here. Let's see. No, it is herb Jones, but he beats him with a

nasty left to right crossover. And when he beats him, boom, you could see the Pelicans already loading up Trey Murphy's there. Now we've got this weak side situation. These are those week side two on ones I'm talking about. So in a ball screen, this would be a tag, but in

this case, it's just a help on a drive. But you're gonna see consistently in the series anytime the Thunder runs some sort of action or someone gets beat off the dribble, they're going to heavy, heavy, heavy help here in the paint, and you're gonna see a lot of this. You're gonna see Josh Giddy in the corner or lou Dort in the corner, the other one on the wing, and this this man rotating down from the wing for the Pelicans is gonna have to play two on one.

And in this case you could see pump fake you're baiting on the That was a classic passing lane close out from Zion Williamson. Right. So Zion Williamson's going to close out into the gap between the two of them, right, because he's trying to basically take away this pass while also preying on his indecisiveness. Loudor drives and kicks. Zion

Williamson rotates back to Ludore. Notice none of the Pelicans are reacting to this. I'm gonna rewind a little bit because this is actually kind of crazy. None of the other four Pelicans care. They're content to let these two guys. Notice Larry Nts is not rotating. He's content, he's digging, he's stunting, but he's content to let these guys play two on one over here. So obviously it burned him and ended up costing him the game, But that is a strategy I do think we'll see from the Pelicans

here in this series. Last one here an example of the Thunder picking on CJ McCollum. So Jaylen Williams is Zion on him Zion. It was kind of an interesting match because Jaye Williams is such a downhill kind of threat. They use Zion similar to the way they use him on Lebron, where he just kind of beat him to spots and use his physicality to kind of close off

those driving lanes. But obviously, without Lebron or excuse me, without Zion available in this series, that's gonna be another advantage for Jalen to look at it, He's just going to be stronger than most of the perimeter defenders he's going against. So we get the Loudorge screen that gets CJ switched onto Jalen Williams. Now he comes over the ball screen, we're going to reverse the screening angle here, and this is just really bad ballscreen defense from Trey Murphy.

Trey Murphy's on inside position. Excuse me, Trey Murphy's got inside position here on the home gren screen. And so when CJ goes to chase now, they're just screwed because Check can easily screen both of them and he can get downhill. But again, that's what happens when you pull you two pretty weak defenders into the action at the exact same time. You're gonna get an easy shot and you end up getting again once he turns the corner there.

It's just hopeless. And Laryn antswould probably be in better help position with this being giddy, but he's not, and that ends up icing the game here. So again beyond the the lookout for the thunder attacking c J. McCollum as well. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. For this morning, I should say, as always as sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting the show. So we got all eight series previews. They're all up on the YouTube feed. Again, enjoy the games today. I'll see

you guys. After the final buzzer of Nuggets Lakers for an instint reaction, the volume