Hoops Tonight - Warriors make moves, plus NBA Season preview

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in West Virginia. All right, Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by Fandel here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, I help all of you guys had an incredible weekend. The NBA season starts tomorrow. I can't freaking believe it, but it's here, and we have about what eight and a half months of steady basketball coming ahead of us, and I'm very, very excited for Here's the plan for this week.

So this morning, I want to touch on the Warriors extensions that took place over the weekend of Jordan Pool and Andrew Wiggins, which are super fascinating on a bunch of levels. Because a lot of Warriors fans are referring to this as their last dance. I don't necessarily see that as the case, but I want to go into some details there. Um this afternoon or later this evening, we're gonna have another video coming out that's gonna be my final, like season preview. It's just gonna essentially be

my opportunity to put my final predictions down for the season. Now, as you all know, predictions are total crapshoot. If we all knew what was gonna happen, we all be in Vegas making money gambling. That's not the case. I'm just gonna give you guys my best guesses based on my personal view of the game. Get all that stuff nailed down this evening. That's like who I picked to win the title, who I think is gonna win the West and the East, and biggest Underachiever, Biggest Overachiever m VP,

that kind of stuff. We're gonna get all that stuff down and recorded later on today and then tomorrow is gonna be our first live show of the year, So we'll be going live right after the final buzzer of Lakers Warriors. We have another live show coming this Thursday. After the last game of the night. On t n T Wednesday, we'll have like an in depth film breakdown

of Tuesday nights games on that day. You're gonna want to make sure that you follow me on Twitter as well, because that's where I'll put all the footage breakdowns and stuff where I actually can use NBA footage. But yeah, today, to start, we're gonna be talking about those Warriors extensions. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any more videos.

Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason Lts. You guys don't miss any show announcements as well as the footage breakdowns that I was referencing earlier and then last but not least. For whatever reason, you miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish them, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts Under Hoops tonight. So on that note, let's talk

some basketball. Why did the Warriors prioritize Jordan and Andrew And obviously they did because these were pretty damn lucrative extensions, and Raymond was also up for an extension and he didn't get one, So that doesn't mean they're not going to sign him to one. We don't know yet. We don't that's still up in the air and we're gonna get to that in a minute. But it's clear that Jordan and Andrew were somewhat of a priority. Now why

is that? I think it's pretty simple. They're young, meaning you don't have to worry about age being a factor in the contract, but they're also already high level playoff contributor. We're gonna do a lot of juxtapi juxtaposition with the Lakers today because I think it's hilarious to see the gap in management competency and ownership competitiveness between the two,

and I'm gonna be making some comparisons there. This is not the Lakers betting on Taylor Horton Tucker over Alex Caruso, because Taylor Horton Tucker was not even a contributor yet. He was a bench player for them that had some minor success during stretches when Lebron James and Anthony Davis were hurt in season. He was not a proven playoff contributor yet they Alex Cruso was, and in that case, the Lakers misallocated resources, not applying enough value to that.

Jordan Pool and Andrew Wiggins just both had monumentally impactful playoff runs. Andrew Wiggins was probably their second most important player in that runs. He either him or Draymond depending on who you ask. Jordan Poole in that playoff run his first ever playoff run average seventeen points per game on sixty from shooting. It was incredible, particularly in that Game six in Boston while Steph was on the bench in the it was either late first or early second

when they went on that big run. He was a proven playoff player his first time around. And then Andrew Wiggins in his combination of defense guarding the other team's best player and what he did on offense attacking closeouts and knocking down threes, incredibly valuable in the playoffs. So they were prioritizing two players that they knew for a fact if they needed them to start an NBA Finals game this year, they'd be ready for it. They'd be capable of doing so, doing it at a high level.

That's the difference in investing in that kind of youth versus investing in youth that's more of a gamble with something like what the Lakers did with Taylor Norton Tucker. In addition to that, these simply put her just to clear foundational pieces for the Warriors future. These are two players that if you're if they're your third or fourth best player, your second or third best player, and you've got a good enough number one, you can win a lot of basketball games. So it was just a sound

investment on that front. And then this was the important part that I wanted to get to. They also have skill sets that are monumentally important in the modern m b A. This is not investing in a guy like DeAndre Ayton, who's obviously one of the best players at his position, but plays a position that carries significantly less value as you get into the playoffs. Right. This is

not investing in a lower value archetype. This is I'm getting a three and D wing that's a lot more than a three and D wing, and I'm getting Jordan Pool, which we're gonna get you in a second. Let's let's talk about if you guys remember over the course of the summer, what are the two things that I talked

about on both ends of the floor. That are the most important skills in basketball right now, with the way the game has changed on the offensive end, I said pull up shooting, right, because that's the best counter to any coverage that any team unleashes on you. Well, Jordan's Pool in his third season shot thirty eight percent on five pull up jumpers per game. As a kid, He's a kid, and he's doing that. It's gonna only get better from there. And then what was this? What? What?

What was another specific offensive trait that I spent a lot of time talking about over this summer, rim pressure, And I talked about all the value that comes from rim pressure, not just collapsing the defense you can kick to threes, not just making layups, which are a high efficiency shot, but the way you can impact things in

terms of offensive rebounding and changing matchups by drawing help. Well, Jordan Pool averaged, according to NBA dot Com, eight point two drives per game last year, which was second best on the team behind Steph. And again, I always try to compare the tracking data or the metrics that we have to what I see with my eyes, and persistently, what I've told you guys about Jordan Pool is what I like about him that makes him so different from Stephan Clay is he is so damned fast that he

can beat people off the dribble all game long. Now, Steph he leads the team and drives. He gets to the rim all the time. But he does that by weaponizing his shooting. He's not just blowing by people with quickness that often unless he's getting a big on a switch. Jordan Pool has that kind of burst. He's very valuable to the team on the offensive end because of his ability to get downhill. And then obviously he's a great shooters, shot thirty eight percent on five catch and shoot threes

per game. But the point is is, Jordan Pool gives me two of the most important offensive skills in the modern NBA, getting downhill to the rim and knocking down pull up jump shots. So they're investing in an archetype of player that has proven to be super valuable in the NBA, in the modern NBA future proof if you want to call it that. And then we go over to Andrew Wiggins. I think he's one of the five

best perimeter defenders in basketball. What did I say is the most important skill on defense in the modern NBA right now? Perimeter defense because containing the ball prevents the team from getting into their driving kick and getting the role players involved. Andrew Wiggins and what he did to contain Luca don Chich and to contain Jayson Tatum through both of those teams wildly out of whack in their offense. That's how valuable Andrew Wiggins is because of what he

can do as a perimeter defender. And Andrew Wiggins also can knock down pull up jump shots. He was thirty on four pull up jumpers per game, which is completely respectable. He also was third on the team and drives per

game with seven drives per game. We talked about that uh in some of our preseason breakdowns, how strong an athletic he is, and with the way he rips through to the bat ask it and how guys just can't hold on to him anymore because Andrew is finally starting to come to terms with how dominant of an athlete he is and how he can weaponize that in a basketball game. And then he also shot on catching shoot threes. So the bottom line is is these are two really

smart investments investments from the Warriors. They are modern basketball players that bring very important modern skills, they're young, so they're smart to invest in in the respect that they're not going to diminish in value over the course of the contract. And they're absolutely pillars of the franchises future. They needed to be prioritized. So the question comes, where does Draymond fit in all of this, and it's it's an interesting question. First of all, let's just start up

up front. Draymond is one of the three most valuable players on this team. He had some rough moments in this playoff run, but there's no question that what he does on the defensive end of the floor for them

is immensely valuable. He missed twenty nine straight games with a back injury this season, and the team went sixteen and thirteen, and their defense sucked compared to what it was and Steph Curry couldn't get the same high quality shots that he used to get because Draymond does a lot for them on the offensive end, even though it doesn't look like he does sometimes. And there are times where Draymond does hurt them on offense. That's that goes

without saying. But there are also times where he makes it work. He that that's that's those were his good Dad playoff games in the in the in this playoff run, when he's not succeeding in some of the things he does on offense, screening really hard, making good decisions in the role, looking to score just enough to keep the defense honest, hunting steph for looks off the ball, those sorts of things. When he does those things, he's actually

a good offensive player. He just had some games in this playoff run where he didn't do those things, but then he did them when it mattered. In the NBA Finals, after he called his shot, he was playing like trash and they were down to one, and he was like, I'm playing like trash. Oh, by the way, c J McCollum orriever the heck he was talking trash year I think it was c J. He's like, yeah, by the way, they're gonna be ringless just like you. We're gonna win

this series. And he put his money where his mouth was. He guarded Jalen Brown and locked his ass up, and then he had his best offensive game of the series when they needed it in Game six on the road. He's more valuable to winning basketball games right now than Jordan's pool is. That doesn't mean that it wasn't a smart investment for them to sign Jordan Pool. Absolutely was for all the reasons we said earlier, but don't underestimate Draymond's value in all of this. The it's just a

reality of their financial predicament. It would cost it would cost you lake of hundreds of millions of dollars to retain Draymond as well in all of this, and that makes it a tough decision. And so when you're looking at the layout and I see, I got Jordan Pool that I gotta pay. I got you know, uh, Andrew Wiggins, I gotta pay. I got Draymond I gotta pay. I got Clay Thompson that I'm gonna have to pay soon. You look at that and and it it is complicated.

And you look at that and you see Draymond and Clay are obviously Draymond because of his age and he's starting to experience some physical decline. He had some back issues last year. And then you've got Clay tom Soon who's had two serious injuries in the last couple of years. It's you look at that and you go, they will if you sign both of those guys to four year extensions, they will likely during those extensions experience significant physical declines and not be as valuable in the tail end of

those contracts. That's just the reality of father time. That's not an insult. And so when you're looking at the layout like you have to make some tough decisions, that doesn't mean they won't still be productive basketball players on those deals. That doesn't mean they won't deserve the money. It just means it has to be factored in when they're making those kinds of decisions. That means the Warriors were right to pay the young guys and to try

to negotiate discounted deals for Draymond and Clay. That's just good business. You can't fault them for that. But here's why I don't because a lot of Warriors fans have been going the route of like, oh, they're gonna trade these guys. I don't think they're gonna trade either of them. And the main reason why is I think Clay is going to take a significant discount to remain with the Warriors. First of all, they gave him a MAX deal right after he tore his a c L. He's experienced a

vote of confidence from the franchise. He's making over forty million this year and over forty million next year. He's doing just fine. That in his identity is very much tied up with this franchise, even more so than Draymond's is, in my opinion, like he just you just it's you. You can't even fathom the idea that Clay would play

for somebody else. So I think Clay as a kind of like a uh, you know, as as a return of a grateful return for what happened after he town his towards a c L. I could see him taking a discount of deal. So I think he'll stay. But Draymond is way too important to their title chances in the immediate future for them to trade. That's the issue, because Draymond has legit reasons to maybe you want to be elsewhere. For starters, he's been the guy who is

the Scottie Pippen of this particular dynasty. He is the guy that has been consistently underpaid relative to his value. This year, he's gonna make just under twenty six million dollars. That will be the most he's ever made with the Warriors, And like I would argue, he's more valuable to them winning than Clay Thompson and Clay Thompson has been making over forty So obviously Draymond has reason to be like, Hey, at what point do I get taken care of in

all of this. That's a realistic concern of his, And so I could see him after this deal ends. I think he'll opt out after this year, He'll opt out of the twenty seven and look for a deal. I could see him looking like for one last long term deal, and if the Warriors try to offer him a discount, I could see him going elsewhere to get that money. So then it becomes you know he's leaving. If that's the case. If you know he's leaving, do you trade him?

You can't trade him because his value is so unique to the Warriors that you're not going to get a ton back. It's not like you're gonna get a superstar back. So the reality is is they whatever they do, trading Draymond hurts them in that particular season. I think later today we're gonna do our season preview. I am going to say that I think the Warriors are going to win the title. I think they're the best team in

the league right now. They have the best chance to win if they trade Draymond overnight, even if they get Miles Turner back overnight, they go from my number one to behind the Bucks, behind the Clippers, behind the Celtics. That's how much of that's how important Draymond is to what they do. And I get it's been frustrating. I get that he signed with Clutch and he talks about Lebron a lot and for some reason that bothers Warriors fans. I get that he punched a teammate when he had

a bad moment. But he is vitally important to the Warriors winning basketball games. That is just a fact, and so they will not trade him, knowing that it actively and significantly handicaps their chance to win. So what will probably end up happening, if I had to guess, is that he finishes this season with a smile on his face, creating no drama, and he approaches the front office and asks for a deal. They probably offer him something too small.

I believe he will opt out of that deal and probably signed to go play elsewhere for somewhere in that four to eighty four for eighty four for a hundred, you know, somewhere between twenty and twenty five million per year for another four years somewhere else next summer, some team that used him as a culture changer, a guy that can come in and overnight completely revamped their defense. That's just it's just the reality of the business of

it all. And again, it's kind of unfortunate because I view it as it's kind of insulting to what Draymond has done in his years here. But I understand where they're coming from from a business perspective of needing to pay all these other guys and the realities of the luxury tax and the fact that if you pay Draymond million a year, it really costs you almost a hundred a year, and it's just complicated that way. But yeah,

that's my guess. I guess that Clay takes a discount and stays, Draymond finishes the season, opts out, and then signs a long term deal elsewhere because he deserves his freaking money. Man, he's seeking another lucrative contract because he's been underpaid, and he has every right to do so. I don't think I don't think Warriors fans should judge him for being disloyal if he decides to leave, because he would be leaving because he's the guy who got the short end of the stick in this whole thing.

I wanted to talk about Joe Laco for a second, because again it's just I wanted to just put a juxtapose with Genie Bust. Obviously, this half million dollar payroll that he's gonna pay this season or next season borders on insanity, and it's obviously an unrealistic standard to hold other owners too. Like when we ask owners to spend, it's not like we're asking them to spend a half million. We're asking them just to spend reasonably when you have a chance to win a championship. But even with that

adjusted standard, it's still hilarious. Juxtaposed with Genie Buss and the Lakers, Joe Lacob and Bob Myers valued the contribution of their role players. They recognized Jordan's Pool and Andrew Wiggins for their invaluable contribution to winning in this playoff front. They saw the basketball and saw how those two guys

were so important to them winning. Genie and Rob undervalued their role players and flipped two quality starters for Russ because what they saw when they won the title in was Lebron James and Anthony Davis getting a lot of

dunks and blocks and knocking down big threes. And they thought Lebron and a d carried us to the title, and they failed to see that it was the fact that every single one of their rotation players, not namer Gen Rondo, was like six six or bigger, could defend multiple positions and attack close outs and just played really smart. Basketball is a basketball team that won the title, not Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Joe Lacom went deep into the tax to retain both of those young role players

the Bulls. The Bulls offered Alex Cruso nine million per year, and Robin Genie was like, goodbye, Alex, good luck in Chicago for nine million, And I get it. He's not Jordan's pool, but it's nine million dollars man, and I get it. Even with the tax, it's like twenty seven million or something like that. Still completely inexcusable, especially when you factor in that they invested in a young player who wasn't ready to contribute yet. Alex Cruso started Game

six of the finals. It was one of their most important players. He was the plus minus guy that all the lineups that he wasn't killed. When they went small with a D at the five and had Alex Cruister with Lebron, they obliterated teams. It just represents a fundamental lack of understanding of what wins basketball games. You need some star talent with lots of good, complimentary pieces that fulfill the vital responsibilities of a basketball team. There was

a list going around on Twitter last week. I don't know if you guys saw it, UM, but it was like six or seven players long, and it was all players that were on the Lakers roster last year that are now out of the NBA Entirely. That like, that is that's why people are concerned about the decision makers for the Lakers. Jennie Bust did an interview last week.

I can't remember exactly who it was with UM, but in it she insinuated that she was targeted for being a woman about her inner circle, and she specifically said, like, hey, why do they question who's in, you know, Mark Cuban's inner circle. And the host rightfully pushed back and was like, well,

they questioned Jerry Jones too. The issue is not the fact that it's your inner circle and your female it's the fact that you're employing family members, and these family members are making confusu family members friends, like picking based on personal relationships rather than expertise, and then those people that you have personal relationships making bad decisions. For Jerry Jones on the football field and for Genie Buss on the basketball court. That's like when you're wondering why they

question your inner circle. That's why that half the roster from last year is no longer on the team, when

the are no longer in the league entirely. When you look at Joe Lake and he's winning and investing in young role players and you let a young role player walk for nine million dollars, they're gonna question you about that when you consider can you when you consistently and persistently make confusing basketball decisions and they know that your inner circle is Kurt Rambis, who was a player coach who's only success came within the Lakers franchise, and he

was famous for going into Frank Vogel's coaches meeting last year and saying, more, DeAndre Jordan, please, that'll fix all our problems. When that happens, When Kobe's former agent, who as we discussed as more is more of like a snake oil salesman who's trying to sell bad basketball decisions to the Laker fan base when he is completely uninterested in the guys that lad the types of players that

lead you to a title in two thousand twenty. They're going to question your decision making when it's bad decision after bad decision after bad decision, one that leads to the best team in the world in being literally literally a playing team with Lebron James and Anthony Davis on the roster less than two years later, when they're projected to win less than fifty games, when the when when they look when they look as bad as they did

last year, they're going to question that. They're going to be like, Okay, your decision makers are your your best friend and his husband, Kurt Rambis, your h Kobe's former agent, and then to your nephews, they're gonna be like, maybe they need to have somebody in that front office that is a basketball expert. And that's his only connection to you. The only connection he has to you is that he submitted a resume that discusses how good he is in

his history making basketball decisions. That's why he works for you. That's the when. When that is the case, they won't blame you anymore, Jennie. They will blame that guy. But when it's your friends and family that work for you and the bad decisions happen, they're gonna look at you as having made mistakes, surrounding yourself with people who aren't up to the task. It's it's about basketball at its core.

Winning cures everything. Do you think do you think do you think they will say anything to you if you if you guys just won basketball games, you're failing to win basketball games with Lebron James and Anthony Davis on the roster, they have every right to be concerned the way that they are. And again, I know that's kind of a whole other thing, but it's just it's so interesting to see that juxtaposed with the with the Warriors situation. It's just really interesting to see that juxtaposed tip off

the NBA season. With FanDuel, America's number one sports book, new customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets guaranteed when you place your first five dollar bet. Plus FanDuel is the only sports book that's giving all customers three months of NBA League Pass when they make a five dollar bet on the NBA. Then you can watch all the action as you bet on everything from money line to point spreads to totals. I've talked about a lot of futures over the course of this summer.

The one I like the most right now is Yannice to win the m v P. Get great odds on it. Luca doesn't really make a ton of sense to me because I don't think the Mavericks are gonna win enough games. The Bucks are gonna win a ton of games. Janice is gonna put up crazy numbers and advanced metrics that the voters like so much, and he hasn't won since,

so he's fresh in the minds of the voters. I really really like Janice to win m v P. So don't miss out on your chance to get one hundred and fifty dollars in free bets plus three months of NBA League Pass with promo code Jason t make every moment more with fan Duel, the official sports book partner of the NBA. We're gonna be doing our season preview predictions today, just kind of league. Why there's some specific

predictions that I want to nail down. Who will win the East, who will win the West, who will win the NBA title. I want to talk a little bit about that specific NBA Finals matchup that I am predicting.

I want to talk about which team I expect to overachieve the most, which team I expect to underachieve the most, who win m v P. And then at the very end, I want to spend some time talking about the Lakers because they're They're opening schedule to start the season is incredibly difficult, and it's very possible that they get off to a very poor start, which could lead to a bunch of potential ramifications. So I wanted to spend a little bit of time talking about them at the end.

You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels you don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements as well as footage breakdowns. There's a couple of specific breakdowns I plan on doing this Wednesday of the opening night games. A lot of footage and stuff that will be on my Twitter feeds, you're gonna want to follow me there.

And then, last but not least, for whatever reason, you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish them. You can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight. And on that note, let's talk some basketball. So when we're talking about who's gonna win the NBA title, we kind of are narrowing it down to four teams and I

feel like most people probably agree with me there. And we also got a similar type of feedback from the NBA g M survey which picked these same four teams as the team's most likely to win the title. That would be the Warriors, the Bucks, the Celtics, and the Clippers. Now, to be clear up front, all four of those teams have flaws. This is not the two thousand seventeen Warriors, the two thousand eighteen Warriors. This is not a clear

cut favorite type of season. This is a season where we have multiple teams that are on that top tier of the league. The Warriors in the Bucks, for instance, don't quite have as much total roster talent as the Clippers and the Celtics do. In my opinion. But the Clippers and the Celtics, they don't have Janis and Steph, the two best players in the entire world, so their

top tier talent it's not quite as good. I think the Warriors core lineups have some undersized perimeter defenders, which can lead to specific problems in specific matchups, although they managed to get by past that problem this past season. The Bucks have pretty unreliable role players spotting up on the perimeter. That really hurt them against Boston. That was

their biggest weakness last year. The Celtics, there two stars, Jalen Brown and Jayson Tatum, are both pretty like pretty unreliable decision makers, right like, you don't trust them in big moments not to make, you know, crippling mistakes. So that's the Celtics big problem. Then we go to the Clippers, and I think particularly their role player wings, the wings they have around Kawai and Paul George are a little bit slow footed, which could put them into some problems

against teams that are quicker on the perimeter. So when I'm looking at those top four teams, they all have flaws, they all have strengths. There's no clear cut team that's above all of them. So who is the safest bet? You had to pick one of those four teams and the Warriors. And I've talked about this a lot when we when we had them number one in our power rankings,

and we talked about them during the preseason. The reason why I picked the Warriors as who I think is going to win the title this year is they have the best combination of factors that make them the safest bet. They have the best combination of upper management should they need to sign, buy out players or make a trade in the middle of the season. A competent coaching staff that caters their philosophy towards the roster as opposed to

their you know, stubborn ideologies about basketball. They also cater their ideologies towards things that work in the modern m b A. I also trust their coaching staff more than the other three teams on that list to make pivotal adjustments in a playoff series, like putting Draymond Green on Jalen Brown for instance. Those kinds of things. I trust their coaching staff the most. They're superstar talent. I'm getting Steph Curry in this case, who I believe is the

second best player in the world quality players. And then this is the big one, continuity and experience, knowing how to play together and knowing how to win playoff series because they've won so damn many of them over the years. They've won coming from behind, they've won in dominant fashion. They've won in two thousand, fourteen, fifteen, they've won in

two thousand and twenty two. Right, they just have When we're talking about all of those factors, all of those teams that we just mentioned has strengths or weaknesses in certain parts of those factors. But the Warriors are the best of those four in all of them combined. If I'm looking for the best combination of management, coaching, star talent, role players, continuity and experience, the Warriors are just the safest bet. That doesn't mean they will win, but it

makes them the safest bet out of those four. So I'm picking the Warriors. To be clear, right here, the eve of the start of the season, I am picking the Warriors to win the NBA titles. So who will win the West? Obviously the Warriors probably over the Clippers in the Western Conference finals would bet my guest, But who knows how injuries will play a role. In seating

as things go along. In the end, I've always viewed the Clippers as the biggest threat out West to beat the Warriors because they have such great perimeter size and the Warrior's specific weakness is perimeter size on the defensive

end of the floor. So even though I view the Clippers as their biggest threat and I view them as the team that will play play against him in the Western Conference Finals, I think that the one of the biggest reasons why I picked the Warriors over the Clippers in that matchup is in the end, I think I think it'll be the gap in foot speed that kills them.

We talked about this, but when you look at you know, the Clippers are known for this team being this team that has a ton of wings that can guard multiple positions and do multiple things on the offensive end of the floor. Right, So, if I've got you know, and I need to get past Kawai and Paul George for a second, i gotta start looking at Marcus Morris and Nick Patum and Robert Covington right like, I'm getting into this list of these kind of older wings, and yes

they can guard multiple positions. Yes they have a history of being good role players at their positions, but they're just they're starting to get to the point where they're a little bit more slow footed than they used to be. And particularly when you're guarding the Warriors, who are gonna put you through a plethora of actions during every single game, way more actions than any other team is going to run, and then so much cutting and running off the screens

and covering a ton of ground. They're a player movement offense. With how much they move around, it's going to be particularly tough for the Clippers to keep up with them with their slower feet. So that would be why I picked the Warriors over the Clippers to win the Western Conference. So who win the East? So this is my big switch up from the power rankings. Um again, I don't I don't see the point in being married to a pick. You should react to new information or if you have

a change of heart, you should embrace that. In my opinion, I had originally picked Boston because of the Malcolm Broadden acquisition. I thought it addressed their ball handling concerns and I thought that it kind of it was an indicator of philosophy that I like to which is push your chips in the middle. Do your best to be the best that you can be because other teams are consistently getting

better around you. It bothered me that the Bucks really didn't do anything this summer, and then the Celtics were like, Hey, we stuck at ball handling. Let's go get Malcolm Brogden. He can dribble the basketball. I liked that about Boston and that's why I picked them. However, I really don't want to be sitting on my couch in May watching the Eastern Conference Finals feeling like an idiot for picking against the Honice. That's kind of where I'm at right now.

I think he's the best player in the world on a tier by himself. I think he's made strides as a passer, particularly that made him unstoppable on the offensive end in a way that he didn't used to be. And then I also think he's the best defensive player in the world. So from that standpoint especially, and I gotta give them a little bit more credit. I said that the Celtics addressed their biggest weakness, which was ball handling right well, the Bucks had a big weakness in

off ball shooting. Their inability to knock down shots when the Celtics loaded up on Janice, particularly at the end of that series, really killed them. And I don't think we're factoring in enough to how the return of Chris Middleton taking you know, forty playoff minutes a night from one of those weaker spot up players, and the influx of guys like Joe Ingles for instance, as significant upgrades

at that specific flaw that they had last year. So even though a lot of the things with my brain are pointing me towards Boston, my gut is telling me don't pick against Nice. And so from that standpoint, before the season, before we've seen any basketball, I am going to be picking the Bucks over the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference, which means I'm expecting a Warrior Is Bucks NBA Finals, which I think would be most NBA

fans dream because it's such an interesting matchup. So I wanted to spend a couple of minutes talking about that particular matchup. So, first of all, it starts with Draymond verse Janice. We have, you know, if I talked a lot about, you know, over the summer when we were talking about player rankings, we were talking about Janice and how you know, uniquely, he just destroys your stereotypical perimeter defenders.

Right Like, if I was ranking the best perimeter defenders in the world, I've got you know, Ben Simmons, Andrew Wiggins, Jason Tatum, Michail Bridges, maybe a couple other guys. You know, outside of Ben Simmons, who is who actually has done a pretty decent job on your Honest, those other three guys are are hopeless guarding. Like if you put Micail Bridges, Jason Tatum, or j Leon Brown on HONEST for a

playoff series, they would get obliterated. And it's just kind of the unique matchup problem that Janice causes because of how big and strong he is. Right Well, if I was, I talked a lot over the summer, if you were building a defender in a lab to guard Janice, the two guys that came to mind to me were Lebron James and Draymond Green because they are incredibly strong for their specific position, and they have the unique ability through instincts and crafty nous to even defend above what their

strength level is. That's what made Lebron capable of guarding all five positions when he was in his prime and still a little bit to this day. And Draymond Green, even though he's you know my height, is one of the best defensive players of all time because of his unique combination of strength, low center of gravity, instincts, the

ability to slide his feet. The other big thing that would make that tough for you, Honest in particular, is j Honest would have to kind of beat him with his brain as much as he does with his body, because over the course of that series, Draymond's gonna pick up on his go to moves. If he gets beat on a specific move, he's gonna make a mental note

of it. Draymond loves that chess match of defense and identify little things that he can fix and rectify to become a better defender over the course of a series. That specific matchup, that Draymond versus Janice matchup would be such an incredibly interesting basketball matchup to watch. And then the other big part of that series that would be tough is the traditional drop coverage that Milwaukee would inevitably run against Steph Curry. And we literally saw that against

Boston last year. They baited Steph into pull up jump shooting when he's the best pull up jump shooter in the world. I can't remember the exact numbers, but the Warriors averaged around like twenty twenty one pull up jump shots per game last year in the regular season, and that pumped up against Boston. Because they're not stubborn. They will do what they have to do to beat your particular coverages, and they have the guys to do it

in this case Steph Curry. And then obviously we've talked a lot about how Jordan Pool has turned into a really good, high volume pull up jump shooter as well. It's two incredibly different teams and whichever style controls the game will end up winning. And again, I'd pick Golden State for all the reasons we just talked about. They're the best combination of management and coaching, star talent, role players, community experience, all that stuff. They're the safe for bet.

But man, would that be an interesting NBA Finals series? And I hope that this is the year that we get to see it. So what team do I expect to overachieve the most? I'm going with Philly. Now, everyone's pretty low Unfilly for a bunch of obvious reasons, right, Like James Harden's playoff history, which is well documented and it really is a problem. He's one of the biggest playoff underachievers relative to his regular season success in NBA history.

It's a legitimate concern with him. Right. We also have James Harden's recent decline. He just hasn't looked much like himself at all over the last couple of years. Then we have with Joel Embiide his injury history. It's always hurt, and then he kind of has some bad body language stuff when things go south in the playoffs. And then we have to Rivers, who also has a history of blowing playoffs series. So we had this like list of of obvious red flags that are kind of deflecting a

lot of attention away from the Sixers. And there's some legitimacy to that, like, for instance, I don't have them in my top tier of contenders, but I think they're just as talented, which we'll talk about in a second. So obviously I'm factoring that in as well, and we should We should not gloss over that stuff entirely, but we do in a lot of cases like this overlook the good that comes with the Sixers. For one, they're every bit as talented is the best teams in the league.

I would argue they had the most talented top four out of any team in the league. If you've got Joel and B, James Harden, Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie, you're I you'd be hard pressed to find a top four that's as good. There are other good top fours in the leagues, and I again, I would pick the top four teams in the league as better teams than the Sixers, but in terms of talent, they're right up there in that conversation. And I also expect James Harden

to have his best season since two thousand nineteen. We've talked about this a ton over the course of the summer, but I just think he's I think that I think that his lack of success over the last couple of years has caused him to come to terms with some of the realities of his body changing as he's getting older. I think he's gonna be in better shape this year. I think his hamstring will hold up as a result.

I think over the course of the season he'll get an even better shape, and I think he'll regain some of that burst he's like he's like my age, he's like thirty two years old. He's not. This dude is not This is not a washed up old veteran. Yes, he's lived a hard life, but there's lots of basketball left in James Harden's legs. And if he can get his conditioning back, I don't see any reason why he

can't have a bounce back season. And then anytime you have a player the talent level of Joel Embiid, who I think is the eighth best player in the world, you can't ever discount a healthy Joel embiat playoff run and how and if he's dominant enough, how that could put the Sixers in position to win a lot of a lot of big games. So they're really just say, not so long shot to win the East. That's why I have them as the team I expect to overachieve.

All right, the team I expect underachieve. I am going with the Suns. So, first of all, they benefited from a great deal of injury luck in the playoffs. They beat the Lakers without Anthony Davis, they beat the Nuggets without Jamal Murray, they beat the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard, and then they beat the Bucks twice when Janice was his first two games back from a hyper extended knee, and then Joannice just literally ran rough shot over them

and beat them four times in a row. But we flowed directly from that into two, which was a season where the West was historically weak because a bunch of teams were down for various reasons. Clippers were down because of Kauai, the Lakers were down because the Lebron and a d getting hurt all the time. The Nuggets were down because Michael Porter Jr. And Jamal Murray were out there.

Just it was just a week Western Conference in that particular year, and they won a ton of regular season games, but then they got into the playoffs and looked somewhat less than dominant against a really good, exciting, young New Orleans Pelicans team, and then they lost in really embarrassing fashion, humiliating fashion to the Dallas Mavericks. So there's some kind of like weird residual energy from that. Then we have DeAndre Ayton's contract situation that was very strange. Clearly wanted

to go to the Pacers. He has beef with Monty Williams, which may or may not get resolved at some point, Chris Paul is turning into one of the oldest players in the league, and he's under size, which can always be that can be an issue for younger players letter let alone players in his position. And then just in general,

the West is much much better this year. We've got the return of the Nuggets to full strength, the return of the Lakers to their version of full strength, the return of the Clippers the full strength the Minnesota Timberwolves made a big time trade. They have more talent than they did last year. Then we've got young teams like New Orleans coming up that I expect to capitalize on some of their success from the end of the year.

Last year, I seriously considered New Orleans for my overachieving team. Sacramento uh with the acquisition of Kevin Herder um uh and I'm blanking on his name right now. But the young uh, the young wing that they drafted, the that I really like, who's been killing it in preseason. They're an interesting team. The West is much much tougher this year. What does that translate to? It means night in and night out. Keegan Murray, by the way, is his name? Sorry?

I get terrible with names. Randomly. I'm like, like, have a good memory sometimes and horrible memory others. It's really frustrating. But night in and night out, the schedule in the Western Conference is just gonna be a lot tougher than it was last year. Did you know that last year the Sons won thirty three of their games requiring crunch time to win, which was most in the league by

a mile. The Raptors were second with twenty six. What that means is, yes, the Suns were dominant, but these games were close, and we're competitive, and they were winning often because Chris Paul just made enough plays at the end of the game or Devin Booker just made enough plays at the end of the game. That means they're not blowing teams out. This wasn't the Boston Celtics. The Boston Celtics beat the crap out of everybody last year.

The Suns were winning in close games. So when you have a night and night out tougher schedule, some weird baggage kind of lingering around the team, and a team that already was thriving on other teams getting hurt and or winning in tight game environments at the end, there's just a lot of reasons why this could swing the other way, it's more more accurately, I'd say it wouldn't take much for this to swing the other way. Now.

They're still super talented, talented enough to win a whole lot of games, even if Chris Paul misses time, even if Devin Booker misses time. But with the drama uderneath the surface, it won't take much for this team to fracture. And when they fracture, they lose the buy in. When they lose the buy in, the defensive end slips and the offensive ball movement slips. Look at what happened to the Lakers last year when they didn't buy into Frank Vogel.

Even with as much talent as they have, it's not completely unrealistic that they could go and thirty seven because some of those games don't go their way, and then they're in the West this year. That might be a playing team, which is a really far cry from being the undisputed best team in the regular season last year. So I have the Sons as the team I expected underachieve. All Right, who I think is gonna win M v P. I'm picking you, honest. The Luca pick just doesn't make

much sense to me. I I do not understand why he's so heavily favored. The Dallas Mavericks had a weird offseason. They lost one of the primary ball handlers, didn't get another one in return. Christian Wood is now going to come off the bench for them. It's just it's a funky team. I like them. Still is a playoff threat, but I do not see them as a team that's going to win enough regular season games to win an

MVP this year. And then when you look at Janice, it's kind of shaping up to be the perfect set of circumstances for him to win an MVP. First of all, his team is gonna win a ton of games, and they're gonna be one of the top seeds. That's just a reality of the Bucks roster. He'll put up ridiculous

counting stats, like he always does. He'll put up ridiculous advanced metrics, the catch balls and stuff, which I don't personally care about, but there are a lot of MVP voters who do, so you have to factor that in here. He's the best defensive player in basketball. MVP voters love that. They love players who play both ends of the floor.

He tries hard every night. That's almost that's incredibly important to m VP because m VP voters have always discounted the veterans, the guys who've been around around a long time, because they don't try hard often enough. And then, most importantly, he hasn't won an MVP S so it will be

fresh to the voters. You won't pay at tax, that Lebron tax that used to talk about all those years ago, where it's just like you're so dominant for so long that like your bar is just different than everyone else, and a lot of your success goes kind of under the table. I think, I think Johannas and I believe that FanDuel he's plus seven hundred, although the odd deadline

might have moved since I last looked. But I just think I think he's I think he's shaping up for just a textbook revenge campaign, and everybody just remembers how dominant he is. The Bucks win a ton of games, they're the one seed in the East or the two seeds in the East. He's clearly the best player in the world, and everyone just finally relents and gives him an m v P. So I think Janice is actually a really really smart bet, especially that kind of odds

to win the m v P this year. Um, all right, last thing before we get out of here, I wanted to spend a couple of minutes talking about the Lakers opening schedule because this is insane because they're the team that I think has the most up in the air and the early phases of the season and a team that has really divergent paths. Because the Lakers have like a long shot chance to win the title, right if

some things shape out. They make a trade with Russ, they get a couple of good role players back Lebron and a d both played like top five players, Like, yeah, you're you're dumb if you don't think they can win a title of things go that way, But they also have like a bunch of different ways that it could go south and they could miss the playoffs entirely, you know, not even necessarily just because of injuries. Right, So they

have like a wide range of outcomes. But the the I do think it's really interesting how tough their schedule is to start the year, which is very different from last year. Last year, I remember they their schedule was just stacked with cupcakes for the first basically like month of the season, and the Lakers still underperformed against that particular schedule. So for starters start the season against the Warriors on Tuesday, and then they turn around and play

the Clippers on Thursday. They'll be significant underdogs in both games. They could play well and go oh and two in both of those games. Then they play the Blazers. That's a game they should win, but it'll be a tough game. Then their next four are Nuggets, Wolves, Nuggets, Pelicans. That's four really tough games, and two of them are on the road, particularly those first two against the Nuggets and

Wolves are on the road. And then three of their next six after that are against the Calves, Clippers, and Nets, three teams that I had very high in my power rankings. So they will be like and again, even if you believe in the Lakers ceiling, which I do, even if you believe in that, they're at a massive continuity disadvantage right now. They did not get a ton of time playing together in preseason because Anthony Davis was dealing with some back stuff and they had some important players a wing.

I expect him to play a lot in Troy Brown Jr. Was out with injury for a while. Dennis Shrewder was dealing with a visa situation and then he just broke his finger thumb or something like that, so he's gonna be out for a while. Like they had, they they are going to be at a massive continuity disadvantage in every single one of those games. They're building this from scratch essentially, so they could very easily be under five hundred through their team games. That schedule that I just

laid out for you is their first thirteen games. There's a version of that story where they beat the three bad because I think they have two matchups with the Pistons and like one with the Spurs in there, and then maybe they beat the Blazers. There's four wins. But what about those other those other nine games there? What if they go what if they win three of those? Right? Like, there's a version of this where they could be seven

and six, six and seven. They could very easily be under five d through thirteen games, even if they play well because of the continuity disadvantage and because of how difficult the schedule is. Now For me personally, I would preach patients there and I would say, look, you have a really tough schedule. You don't have continuity. You need to weather this storm a little bit. You'll hit your stride later on in the season. That would be what

I would say. But this is the Lakers, a team that's under a great deal of pressure, that has this Russell Westbrook situation hanging over them. Now, Russell Westbrook's coming off the bench. I've heard from people that are involved with the team that it probably as a precursor. They's kind of like a last chance, Like if he can't succeed in this role, then they would consider sending him

home before until a trade gets found. So, like, the reality is is this this first thirteen games, with the combination of the drama and and the difficulty of the schedule, things could go south pretty quickly. And so there's two ways that it could go from there. One, it could go them into feeling enough urgency to finally trade Russ, which would be good. But the flip side of that is it could also go them into thinking that this

team is a lost cause. And if they get if they get convinced that the team that this team is a lost cause, they could decide to do nothing. And if that's the case, then you know, now you're punting a season of Lebron James and your twenty in a season of Anthony Davis under contract in his twenties. I think it would be a huge mistake because, especially these early season losses would be just as much a byproduct of continuity as it would be about talent. The big

swing factor there. The one that we have that we've got to keep an eye on is how good do Lebron James and Anthony Davis look? Because if you're six and seven, but Lebron and a D look fantastic, that way, that will go them into trading the picks and getting role players around them before it's too late. But if Lebron and a D don't look great, it could go the opposite direction and that could be the everything they need to feel like this team is worth punting on.

But yeah, it's gonna be interesting watching the Lakers to start the season. There it could go south quickly without tough their schedule is. But those are my picks to start this season. Obviously, I'm not married to anything. That's just where I'm at right now. Um and again with predictions, and I tell you guys this all the time, predictions are just predictions and their guesses. If I was right all the time, I wouldn't be doing this. I'd be

in Vegas betting on these things. And uh, I don't know many professional gamblers out there, because it really is that difficult to predict sports. That's why we love sports so much, so much as up the air. UM. But I'm always gonna give you guys my predictions because I'm not afraid of being wrong, and I'm just gonna do my best and base it on my analysis and base it on the things that I see on tape. UM. But I'm very, very excited just to give you guys

an idea of the schedule coming up again. UM Tomorrow night, right after Lakers Warriors will be going live Wednesday. Keep an eye during the day for a film breakdown on Tuesday night's games with footage that's on my Twitter feed. Thursday night will be a combination of instant reaction to Lakers Clippers in the other National TV game from that night,

as well as breakdown of Wednesday nights games. We'll get to see the I believe the Nets play that night on Wednesday night as well, so live show Tuesday Night show during the day on Wednesday, live show, Thursday night show during the day on Friday. That's our kind of schedule for the rest of the week. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys support. I am so so so excited to embark on this long nine month journey with you guys and to see what we can build this into.

I appreciate you guys so much, and I will see you tomorrow night for the season opener. I'm stoked. It's gonna be fine. Let's do it. The volume