Hoops Tonight - Warriors-Kings key matchup, how LeBron & Lakers close series, Giannis returns

still being contested relatively evenly. The Lakers are up to one on the Grizzlies, the Warriors are tied to two with the Sacramento Kings, and the Miami Heat have a two to one lead over the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannison Tena Kompo returning tonight. So we're gonna focus on those three series. Let's start with Warriors King series tied to two. Both teams are really struggling to contain the opposing star. Both Dearon Fox and Steph Curry are averaging thirty two

points per game in the series. So to me the major matchup down the stretch in these final three games three game series first one to win, two, two, of the games in Sacramento. Who's gonna be able to get stops on the opposing star? I think in large part

over the course of the series. As you've seen the Warriors when they go on their run in the middle of the fourth quarter last night, it's Steph Curry doing everything late in the game when the Kings get back into it to buy themselves a chance with the Harrison Barnes three on the left wing to win the game, it's Darn Fox doing everything and getting where he wants to on the floor. Whoever ends up getting consistent stops against the opposing Star is going to win this series

in my opinion. So let's take a look at it from both sides. Let's start with the Warriors guarding Fox. Now. I expected them to go heavy into Gary Payton the second in this series. They have not done so. As a matter of fact, if you guys remember I talked a lot about a specific lineup that they used in Game one. In Game two that worked well, and that was Stephen Clay with Gary Payton, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green.

That lineup was plus five per one hundred possessions and just under forty possessions in the first two games, both on the road, and I thought that was the lineup that they would end up going to, especially in clutch situations in this series. Instead, they have not done that. They did not use that lineup at all in the

two home games. As a matter of fact, they went with a lot of Jordan Poole, and then when Jordan Poole started struggling and had that bad turnover late in the game last night, they ended up going with Kevon Looney down the stretch, going big and ended up working out they got to win. They've been doing in on ball situations, they've been going with Draymond Green on deer

and Fox and having Andrew Wiggins Garden Malik Monk. Now, they've been trying Draymond Green guarding deer and Fox with some success since all the way back when they were playing in November, so that matchup has actually worked okay with them. But here's why I like to see them use Gary Payton more. First of all, they flat out don't need Jordan Poole's offense with that group last night, even though he did make a lot of plays throughout the game. Down the stretch of the game, not so much.

I thought he took a bad three, he'd left a pull up mid range jump shot way short of the rim, had that really bad turnover to Klay Thompson in the corner. His execution issues actually become an even bigger problem on that stage. So I understand going defense with that group, but instead of Kevon Looney, I would go with Gary Payton.

And the main reason why is transition cross matches. So you know, the Warriors in general, they're gonna take a lot of threes, right, And when you take a lot of threes, they lead to a lot of long rebounds. And they also have a lot of guys who like to attack the offensive glass, and so as a result of that, a lot of times they're giving up transition

opportunities the other way. And you know, transition defense is about stopping that first action right, or stopping that first basket, like the runout for a layup, or the runout drop off for a guy in the corner for three, or the trailer for the three. You want to stop that action and force them to play in the half court. But transition defensive principles are just get back and grab somebody. You're not running back to your matchup it's every man.

It's every man just needs to sprint back and then spread out from there. And so a lot of times like whoever's the first guy back is going to pick up the ball, and then whoever the second guy is back is gonna grab the second guy. So you end up with all these cross matches, and whoever's supposed to be guarding Darren Fox might not be. He might be guarding someone else, or vice versa. Having three guys in the lineup that can guard deeron Fox instead of two.

So having Draymond, Gary Payton, and Andrew Wiggins together that I believe gives you a much better chance of keeping a good defensive player on the Aaron Fox. Not to mention that Stefan Clay have both held up pretty well defensively in the series and switches when they've needed to. So I just think that gives you a much better chance of g stops. So, if we're up to me, I'd like to see the Warriors play a little bit more Gary Payton as they had on the road into Sacramento.

Now on the King's Front, when they're dealing with Steph, they're having the most success with Davion Mitchell on the floor.

Dearn Fox has done okay guarding Steph. The problem is is, like you saw in that final possession where you got that wide open floater, the one he missed right before the Harrison Barnes shot, he just can go right around Dearon Fox because he's got a lower center of gravity and Steph is actually like a deceptively pretty strong dude, right, And Davion Mitchell has a lower center of gravity than Steph and can beat him to spots, and so he really needs screens and pump bakes and things like that

to shake free of him. He actually makes Steph work much much harder, but similarly to the Gary Payton thing, although not to the same extent. Mike Brown hasn't played him a ton. He's played under one hundred minutes in this series, and you saw last night he was kind of going back and forth between between playing Keegan Murray

or Davion Mitchell down the stretch. And I didn't think it was a coincidence that it was like, Okay, we got Keegan Murray on the floor with Davion Mitchell on the bench, and Steph goes off right scores all these baskets, right, under three minutes left, Mike Brown brings on Davion Mitchell. Steph doesn't score for a while, and actually Davion does a really nice job then down in the final minute, Mike Brown goes back to Keegan Murray takes Davion Mitchell out.

Darren Fox is guarding Steph and Steph goes right around him and gets a wide open float that he ended up missing, but was one of his best looks of the night, in a shot that Steph hits like sixty percent of the time. And so I would like to see them just kind of lean on Davion Mitchell a little bit more. I understand the advantage of Keegan Murray, right, It's about Kegan Murray at a great shooting night. He's

being guarded more closely. You're creating spacing. But Deeron Fox and Malik Monk both in particular, are kind of just shot hunting. They're not looking to pass a ton when they're getting downhill. As matter of fact, that was a big problem for them in the fourth quarter as they were forcing shots over Andrew Wiggins and getting blocked, or Milik Monk barreling down the floor in transition forcing something

to the rim. Those guys are kind of tunnel vision right now, So I'm not worry necessarily about them beating you with the pass. Even on the play where Harrison Barnes got the wide open three was because Dearn Fox literally had nowhere else to go at that point, and so I'd like to see them play a little bit more Davion Mitchell understanding that even if Golden State helps off of him, it's not like they were gonna make

those passes to those shooters to begin with. Again, we gotta separate shot quality from results in a small sample size, if you play really great defense, a guy might make a shot. But in three games and three clutch situations, there's gonna be dozens and dozens of possessions, and the team that creates better shots is probably going to win. And so getting the right defensive personnel out there to make the shots more difficult, I think is going to

go a long way towards swinging the outcome. All right, Moving on to heat Bucks, I think Giannis needs to come back and guard Jimmy Butler. Now I talked a lot about this in a show or two shows go. If I remember correctly about this idea, that. I'm not worried about the bucks at all until Jannis said he wasn't going to play in Game four, which didn't happen. I saw a report this morning that Yanni's plans on playing tonight, big shock. They fell down to one in

the series. I think that he would have played in Game three if they were in a worse predicament. But they had just won in dominating fashion in Game two without Yannis, and so I think they thought they could go get Game three without Yannis, and now they realize that they can't. They've got to play him to beat Miami. And Miami's in a very interesting predicament now because Victor Oladipo, in some very tragic news, has has ruptured his ptel attendant in his left knee, so he's obviously not going

to play anymore in this series. Tyler Harrow has broken his hand. They're going deep into the bench to guys like Duncan Robinson, right, So, like we're in a situation now where Miami just does not have a lot of shot creation. But Jimmy Butler has been phenomenal in this series. He's averaging thirty points per game, shooting sixty percent from the field sixty seven percent from three and a three to one assist to turnover ratio has eighteen assists to

just six turnovers. Now, Mike Budenholzer typically likes to put Giannison help, so even when Jannis has been healthy in this series, they've tucked him on Gabe Vincent and had a Drew Holliday guard Jimmy Butler and Drew Holliday is one of the all time great defensive players in this league, but he has typically struggled, especially in uber physical environments against the bigger, stronger wings in the league. I've seen

guys like Lebron give Drew Holiday problems. I've seen guys like Jimmy Butler give Drew Holiday problems over the years. And in this game, he was scoring on him in the post, shooting over the top of him, beating him off the dribble. He's just too big and strong for a guy like Drew Holliday. Unfortunately, he's been way too comfortable in this series. He's not bothering him enough. Now.

The idea there is Bud likes to keep Jannis and help because Giannis is a devastating low man help defender, and there is a lot of value to that in the defense, but specifically with a heat team like this, where if you cut the head off the snake, if you can get Jimmy Butler to start struggling, this team will not be able to score and you can quickly rip off three wins and end this series in six games if you can control Jimmy Butler. Secondly, Jiannis has

guarded guys like this really well in his career. We've talked a lot this season. There was one of my favorite games this year was a win by the Bucks over the Clippers. Or down the stretch of the game, Yannis switched on to Kawhi Leonard and locked his ass up those big forwards. He's too strong. He can absorb that contact in the chest without giving up position, and then when he needs to close ground to contest, he's got the length to contest. So, like Drew on, Jimmy's

just not working. Specifically having Giannis on Jimmy as a matchup that I believe he can win, and I'm not concerned as much about the help defense part, as long as you can contain Jimmy, just because there's not enough skill on the floor. Finally, it is smarter tactically, in my opinion, to keep Giannis closer to the ball. One of the problems with putting Giannis and help in this particular series is Eric Spolsh has a very clear strategy here.

It's we've got Bam and Jimmy, and it's three shooters around them at all times, three guys that are dead eye, knockdown shooters. And so by putting Janis in help, he's being pulled further away from the rim. Now in a let's protect like bread and butter the Jimmy Bam pick and roll. Now you're asking either Yiannis to chase over the top of screens or to switch brook Lopez out

onto the perimeter. But again, bam Adebayo is continuing to demonstrate a struggle offensively to be aggressive and dangerous when he has the ball in his hands. So I would even just switch that brook Lopeziani's action with the Jimmy bampick and roll have Brooke Press up a little bit, and now you have giannison help, except for he's in help in a situation on bam Adebayo where he's close

to the rim. So specifically, from a tactical perspective, Putting Giannis on Jimmy in isolations keeps him close to their most dangerous offensive player, and in pick and roll situations helps him to stay closer to the rim. I think that is the right strategy. And again, with Tyler Harrow and Victor Oladipo out cut the head off the snake, this team will not be able to score all right. Lastly, before we get out of here, our third point moving

forward to Lakers Grizzlies. Can the Lakers play with consistent focus and energy? I believe that the Lakers are a much much better team than the Memphis Grizzlies. I believe that going into the series. The reason I picked the Lakers in six is because they have a tendency to play with inconsistent effort. But when they have played hard, I think they've been the much better. Game one, they dominated the glass forty five to thirty four, and rebounds.

They got way better shots. They shot six percent better from the field. I didn't think that was just a shot variance type of game. I thought the Lakers looked like a better team throughout the game. Then the first quarter of Game three, they outrebounded Memphis twenty to twelve. They made fourteen field goals in that quarter, compared to just three for Memphis, and they forced them into six turnovers.

In the series, the Lakers have made eighteen shots per game in the restricted area and have held the Grizzlies to just thirteen point seven made shots in the restricted area per game, which is massively inflated by them just letting John Morant run a layup line in the first in the fourth quarter of Game two or Game three.

As a matter of fact, in the regular season, Memphis averaged nineteen point three makes in the restricted area per game, which ranked seventh in the league, and the Lakers have brought them down from nineteen point three to thirteen point seven, basically shutting off the rim from them. I think the Lakers are bigger. I think they're stronger. I think they're more skilled. I think their stars are better. I think their role players are better. I think they're just better.

But every single time they've taken a position of advantage in the series, they've relaxed. They controlled Game one and then immediately laid an egg in Game two against them without jow which without John. Defensively, if they were locked in, they would have held them in the sixties or at least in the seventies or eighties. If they gave two and a half quarters of solid effort, Nope, mailed it in, got beat. Then they dominate the first quarter of Game two.

I tweet right after the quarter expect them to do the bare minimum the rest of the game. They do, they barely win by ten points. As a matter of fact, I think the Lakers will beat the Grizzlies. I feel very confident about that, but it is a question of how long it will take. And like I said last night, this specific tendency of Theirs to let their foot off the gas I think could get them beat as soon

as next round against Golden State and Sacramento. But specifically within this series, the difference between the Lakers winning in five or winning in six is gonna come down to that consistency of effort. And I believe it's very important for them to win this series quickly because Golden State Sacramento very well might go seven. Even if the Warriors won Game five. Sacramento is a dangerous team to come into Golden State and win Game six. They just damn

near beat them in Game four. As a matter of fact, I'd say odds are that series goes seven. I picked Warriors in six. I'm gonna stick with it, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it went seven.

So if that series goes seven and you can beat Memphis in five that as a matter of fact, I believe that Game five would be on Wednesday, right, So for Warriors Kings, we have their game their Game five is also on Wednesday, So that means that their Game six would be on Friday, and their Game seven would be on Sunday, which would mean that Game one of the following series would stay start no earlier than Tuesday if the series went to seven games, and would start

Sunday if it ended in six. So if you end the series in five games, if you win on Wednesday, then you are guaranteed Thursday, Friday, Saturday off. That's three days, three full days, a day to completely rest their bodies, a light day to schematically go over what they want to do in round two, and then maybe a hard practice day of the day before the game. That's that's the worst case scenario if you close the series out

in five. If you close the series out in five and King's Warriors goes to seven, you're not playing until Tuesday at the earliest, so you're guaranteed Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday off. That's five full calendar days at a minimum if the Grizzly. If the Warriors Kings series goes seven, and you're dealing with two superstars that wholly represent the ceiling of your team that are coming off of foot injuries, one of them stress related, the other a ligament tear

that was also stress related. So it's vitally important for the Lakers to close this series out quickly, and that's why I think it's such an important matchup in this series. My three points were brought to you by Chase Freedom Unlimited. Earned five percent on travel purchase through Chase, three percent on dining including takeout, three percent at drug stores, and one point five percent on everything else. How do you cash back? All right, guys, that is all I have

for today. As always, as sincerely appreciate your guys' support. We will be back live on AMP after the final buzzer of Lakers Grizzlies later tonight to break down that game as well as Game four between the Bucks and the Heat. I appreciate you guys, I'll see you later tonight. The volume