Hoops Tonight - Warriors-Celtics NBA Finals Preview

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We are almost two the start of the NBA Finals. The matchup that I wanted this whole time, the teams that I'm most excited to see faced off Boston and Golden State today. In this video, we are going to break down every single element of this series. We're gonna talk about their regular season matchups as much as you

can take away from them. Since the NBA regular season continues to provide almost no information about what the end of the book is going to be like, We're gonna look at both sides of the basketball, what it looks like with Golden State on offense and what it looks like with Boston on offense, and then we're gonna look at some series why dynamics, some experience factors, and some other elements of the game that I think are going to play a factor in this series. So let's start

with the regular season now. As is typically the case for teams that are playing across conference lines, they only played twice. Golden State won the early matchup back in one, and then Boston won a game in March where Steph got hurt in the second quarter. Um they played, there were forty one minutes with both Tatum and Steph on

the floor together at the same time. In those minutes, Golden State average ninety four points per one hundred possessions and Boston averaged a hundred and nine point three points per one hundred possessions. So the regular season stuff doesn't look good for Golden State. But at the same time, it didn't look good for Golden State in the Dallas

matchup either, and that ended up meaning absolutely nothing. So I'm not sure what you can take from that regular season series was one one I would say, for the most part, it doesn't really apply. I tried to watch the tape as much as possible, just to look at physical matchups and look at like specific plays. What did it look like when Steph tried to guard Tatum, What did it look like when Marcus Smart tried to guard Steph? You know, like those kinds of things to try to

pick up on those little details. Both teams ran drop coverage for the most part in both games with their big men, so with Keval Luniar, with Rob Williams or with Al Horford. That you again, in the NBA regular season, teams love to run drop because it protects the paint and if you're gonna eat innings in the regular season just to try to get through the eighty two games, might as well take away the paint make teams beat you with the jump shot. So it's pretty typical to

see that sort of thing. It's hard to say how much they'll play drop in this playoff series, in this NBA Finals series, but then again, like Boston ran drop almost exclusively against Miami for whatever reason, so it could be a matchup thing, But we're gonna get into that here in just a minute. A couple of outlier performances. Uh Andrew Wiggins had a twenty seven point game in the Tatum matchup. Covon Looney had seven offensive rebounds in

the two games. Offensive rebounding is gonna be really interesting swing factor in the series. Golden State has been a great rebounding team in this playoff run. Boston not so much. They ranked third out of the four conference finalist teams in defensive rebound percentage. They struggled to secure defensive rebounds against both Milwaukee and Miami. That's something I think Golden State will try to exploit. And then Jordan Pool, you had a twenty nine point game in the step in

the game that Steph got hurt. Obviously, Boston blew them out in that game, but Pool demonstrated that he can score against this Boston defense. So that's something that should be encouraging for Golden State fans. Let's start with Golden State on offense. So the number one swing factor I think in this matchup is gonna be what coverage Boston goes with. You guys know, I'm a big believer in switching as is always the case when you pick a

different coverage, there's a given a take. So obviously, if you're a proponent of drop, you're gonna dislike things about switching, like giving up seize mismatches on rebounding opportunities, giving up seize mismatches for post ups or on the perimeter, or a quickness mismatch with a big man guarding a small guard. You're concerned about mismatches and switching situations. That's typical to me.

I just think the pros of switching the way that it can bait teams into isolation basketball, disrupt their actions, make it so that when they run their sets they don't get open shots. I tend to think that those vastly outweigh the hans and switching, But people have different opinions there. Against Miami, I thought for sure Boston would switch because switching tests your dribble creation, your ability to

beat mismatches off the dribble. In Miami only had one guy on the roster who was a good mismatch attacker and Jimmy Butler, so I thought if they did a lot of switching, they'd be able to basically play into Miami's weaknesses. And have the most success. I also thought, you know, with guys like Max Strus and Gave Vinson and Kyle Lowry and Tyler Harrow that all love to come flying off the screens with lots of space to elevate and pull up a jump shot, why would you

run drop? It allows them to get those looks that they otherwise wouldn't be able to get. And in spite of all of that email, Judoka ran drop the entire series. It was obviously part of the game plan. He was banking that Miami's wouldn't shoot well. Into his defense, they didn't shoot well. But I also thought it was Boston's worst defensive series in terms of the numbers that they gave up with in the con text of the level of talent they were playing. So that's gonna be an

interesting element. Will they continue to run drop against this Golden State team? And again, and I shared clips on my Twitter feed. You guys can see it there. In both regular season matchups this year against Golden State, Boston ran drop. And so that'll be a really interesting thing to see because I would think that baiting Steph and Jordan pool into isolation situations, which yeah, they're gonna take your bigs and they're gonna beat them off the dribble.

But in terms of the physical wear and tear it takes to try to convince those guys to repeatedly put their head down and go to the rim. I like that as a as a game plan option better than the idea of dropping. But I'm really curious to see what they do if they play drop. I expect guys like Stephen Jordan's pool to burn them and Clay Thompson to burn them. So I'm really really curious to see, uh, which defensive strategy Boston goes with. We will know a

lot more after Game one in that department. In Game one, and in particular, I think we're gonna see a really interesting dynamic because there's there's two elements. An element that either team is going to have to face that's gonna be very, very different than what they've faced in previous series is with Golden State on offense. So I've talked about this with before, with you guys adjusting to length

and athleticism. I thought this was a huge thing that hurt Dallas early in the season or early in the series against Phoenix. The reason why they fell down to oh in my opinion, when you go from playing against a certain level of defensive personnel to an entirely different level of defensive personnel, a ton more length, a ton more athleticism, there's usually an adjustment period as you get used to the different habits that you have to have

to succeed against that kind of length and athleticism. I've told this story on the show before, but like I played at the college level, is a good basketball player. But I play against amateurs now. But almost every summer a bunch of pros and college players come back into town, and that's when I get with those guys that I work out with them, and I play with them almost every time. There's an adjustment for me just getting you

to the increased length and athleticism. It's just, you know, that post entury pass that you made, maybe you need to make a pass fake first this time, which you perceived to be an opening in a passing lane might not be an opening against a better athlete. There's an adjustment period there. So Golden State is going to have to adjust to the massively better defensive personnel that Boston has compared to Dallas. The flip side of that is

Golden State's movement. Boston has played pretty traditional offensive machines to this point. Brooklyn and Miami and UH and Milwaukee all ran a lot of high pick and roll. It's a lot of isolation. It's a lot of the same stuff that they've seen at every single level against the other twenty eight teams in the league. Against Golden State, their offense doesn't resemble anything that anybody else does. This is a huge part of white Golden State is always

so good at the beginning of series. There's an adjustment period to adjust to the way they run their offense. It just doesn't look like anything else that you see, and you can get caught off guard. The types of switches and coverages that you run against the traditional offense don't look the same as they do against Golden State. So in Game one, it's gonna be an interesting battle.

Who's gonna adjust quicker. Will Golden State adjust to Boston's length and athleticism on defense quicker or will Boston adjust to Golden State's motion and movement and off ball threat quicker. That's gonna be the swing factor in Game one against drop coverage. If Boston goes withdrop a huge part it's gonna be how much contact is Golden State allowed to get away with on these screens, Because Golden State does set a lot of moving screens, just like everybody else

in the league. So it's not a slander in that regard, but they do set a lot of moving screens. If they are allowed to, Boston players will get caught on screens, Guys will get open looks if that's held a little bit more, you know, by the book, by the refs, that gives Boston a huge advantage chasing guys over the

top of screen. So that will be an interesting dynamic there against the switch as is always the case, you guys, uh go, the State's gonna get a certain amount of open dunks and layups against Boston switching defense, just because of how confusing it could be to track everybody. Just because how confusing it can be when there's three players in an action, or when you get Steph Clay and Jordan Pool in an action and everybody panics and excellently

chases the wrong guy. They're gonna get a certain amount of stuff out of that. However, there will be a considerable amount of possessions where when Boston switches. It bits Boston or Golden State into a situation or Steaf or Jordan Poole has the ball against the matchup that they

like and they have to do something. And for both teams, because we're gonna talk about this with Boston in a second, it's just vitally important that you get dribble penetration and you engage help defenders so that you can get the defense and rotation and not fall into the trap of pull up dribble off the dribble isolation jump shots which stagnate you and get your teammates out of rhythm. That's gonna be for both teams when they're in those switching environments.

Both team have to get persistent rim pressure. All right, let's move forward to Boston on offense. So once again, Golden State ran dropped in the regular season in this matchup with Kevon Looney. I'm really curious to see what they do because Miami ran a lot of drop in the regular season with bam at a bio, but then

they did a lot more switching against Boston. I think switching is a genius defense to run against Boston because it tests their decision making because it puts the onus on Tatum and Brown and Smart to not play the game they want to play, which is to get into their bag and mix people up, but rather get them to really focus on having to get dribble penetration. And more often than not they don't do that, they get

stagnant and they have issues. So I think it's gonna be really important for Golden State to take a note from Miami's book, a lot of switching, a lot of zone, just like they did against Dallas, to mix things up, make things complicated. They ran a lot of zone in their second matchup against Boston this year, again because Draymond Green was out, but I expect to see a lot

of zone as well. But that switching instead of dropping as much as possible, and then the classics Steve Kerr mixing up coverages I think is going to go a long way now against switching. What did Boston do against Miami. They relentlessly attacked Max Truce, They relentlessly attacked Tyler Harrow when he was healthy, and Gabe Vincent. They will do the same thing against Jordan's pool and staff. Now here's

the thing. I said the same thing about the Dallas Mavericks but Dallas was unable to consistently attack Steph and Jordan's pool because Steve Kerr had an easy fix hedge and recover. He would just have Steph or Jordan or whoever it was. When their man would come set of screen, they would hedge, which would force Luca to retreat back to half court to get around the hedge, which would give Andrew Wiggins time to recover below the screen and get back to Luca. Here's the thing, lucas very methodical

with that sort of thing. Boston's slashers are an entirely different type of rim pressure. You're going to see a lot of Tatum and Brown attacking quickly against those hedges, and it works. I saw Jimmy Butler in Miami do this to Boston a lot. They would try to hedge with Derek White on these kinds of actions, and Jimmy would try to beat the hedge by attacking quickly, and he got a lot of straight line drives in great

rim rim pressure from that sort of thing. So for Boston, when they get into those switching situations, they're gonna have to persistently attack staff and persistently attack Jordan pool and get into the rim. The advantage of having multiple players that can drive, unlike Dallas is going to be there one of their angles that they can go to. With Dallas, you had to get them switched onto Luca or get them switched onto Jalen Brunson in order to attack them.

Golden State wasn't allowing the switch. Boston they have the luxury of like, hey, we'll just throw it over to Marcus Smart because Stepford Jordan's gonna have to guard one of those guys because the bigger Wings are gonna be guarding Tatum and Brown and so they might or another guy's like like Derek White. If you can just swing the ball to Derek White and he's already on step, If those guys can get consistent dribble penetration against them,

that will be a huge help. But once again for Boston, just like with Golden State, against the Switches, have to get dribble penetration and engage help defenders and not fall into isolation basketball. So those are the dynamics on either side of the ball. A couple of series wide dynamics

really quick. Um, we just talked about this minute ago, but in Game one, in Game one, I'm really curious to see if Boston, in a good defensive groove coming out of that Miami series, throws Golden State off with their length and athletes said, I thought it says him once again. Golden State only a ninety four offensive rating with Steph on the floor this year with Tatum on the floor. I mentioned this earlier. They killed Denver on offense, they killed the Grizzlies with Jaw on offense, and they

killed the Dallas Mavericks on offense. But against Memphis without Jaw, they only average about a hundred and four points per one Hunter possession. So they have shown a tendency to get stagnant and to have some offensive issues against great defense. In Game one, I'm really curious to see if Boston can leverage that because that's their best chance to win this series. I'm picking Golden State. I'm picking them in

seven games. I think this is gonna be a long series, but I think Golden State is the more trustworthy team, which makes them the better basketball team because execution and attention to detail is all part of what makes a good basketball team, and Golden State is simply better in those areas. Game one will be Boston's best chance if they can steal game one because Golden State struggles to adapt to the defense that they bring, that will be their best chance then to then try to close the

series out in six. But once again, that dynamic goes both ways. Golden State is a very different type of offensive approach. It's very different than anything Boston has seen so far in this playoff run. If they catch Boston off guard and they end up going up two oh in this series, I don't think that's something Boston can recover from. So Game one is gonna be interesting thing. Two other quick notes crunch time once again a huge part of what makes a good basketball team the ability

to close games. Boston has played twenty eight clutch minutes this year in the playoffs. Member playoffs, it's within five minutes at the end of the game, within five points. Okay, Boston has played twenty eight clutch minutes. Golden States played thirty clutch minutes. Golden State plus twelve net rating and clutch time Boston minus one and a half. Boston has not been a good execution team down the stretch of games. Golden State has been a great execution team down the

stretch of games. In a very close series that's likely to have some close games. That's a big advantage towards Golden State. And last but not least, I think steps the best player. Tatum has been very good. It's been a meteoric rise for him this year. I said this on the show the other day, and I sincerely mean it. I think Janice is on a tier by himself atop the league, but I think Steph has the best case for number two. He had a really bad regular season.

His percentages were way down from when he was in his prime. There was definitely something weird going on there. But in this playoff run, Steph has been the best player in this field remaining obviously not counting Janice. So I think that's another big advantage towards step Towards Golden State.

Boston might actually be the more talented team in terms of two way players, but I think Golden States a better basketball team and their attention to detail and it shows up in things like what they do in in crunched in in crunch time, and just their overall consistent effort and focus. Then Steph is the best player. So in this very close series, I'm leaning Golden State in seven to get their fourth championship of this era on their home floor at Chase Center. Hoops Tonight is presented

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to take that risk. It's easy to use, it's safe and secure, and you get your winnings fast. If you are new, just download the fandel sports Book app to get started now. Sign up with promo code Jason T so they know I sent you all right, I wanted to take a couple of minutes today to talk about this latest drama between Kevin Durant and Warriors Nation, which began when my boss Colin Coward had Draymond Green on for an interview for almost an hour yesterday, which was

incredibly interesting. If you haven't checked it out yet, please do. It's on the Volumes YouTube channel. They get into a ton of good stuff, including some prep for this year's NBA Finals. Um, but what ended up stealing the show was Draymond Green. In a discussion centering around Steph Curry

and Finals m VPS. Dreymond is, in kind of like a throwaway line that wasn't even really related to the point he was trying to make, said that Steph faced quote unquote seven times the amount of double teams that k D play at face as a matter of fact, I'm just gonna play the clip. So here's the clip of Draymond Green on the Account Calling Coward podcast yesterday. Steph couldn't have definitely hal Finals m DPS because Steph

has the ball, like Steph. Now, Stephan is coming down to court and he's calling says and he's like, oh, we gotta missmash with Kevin Durant. We're gonna get Kevin Durant the ball every single time. He can hijack the game and no one's gonna say a word. If Steph Curry comes down and he calls for a pick and roll every pace nobody's going to say a word, including Kevin Durrett by the way, nobody's gonna say anything. That's

not who he is, that's not what he does. And so when when you watch a game and Kevin Durant was absolutely incredible those finals runs, as you know you watched it, we all watched it. Kevin Durant was absolutely insane. Steph Curry got double team probably seven times the amount that Katie did in a in a given series. So as you guys can see, he's just talking about a coverage,

but Katie took it personally. He's specifically on Twitter. Uh. Draymond saw it, Katie complaining about it, and Draymond tweeted at him. You have to learn to listen to full takes and not snippets before you get baited into tweeting Champ. And then Kadie quote tweeted that by saying, oh, I've seen it, my brethren. I appreciate the compliments, but I disagree with what you said about double teams. That's all

I love the show. And then you tweeted at one point at a Golden State Warriors fan and said, y'all let twitter trolls get y'all riled up and got y'all insecure. Like I said, I was the sole reason for anything. I always made it about the team. Y'all insecurity has

got y'all like this. So the latest beef between Kevin Durant and Warriors fans surrounding the Steph Curry thing, which once again was one of the main reasons why I think Katie left to begin with because of the the amount of credit that he was given for what had happened during those couple of seasons. Now, to be clear up front, I think Katie and Draymond are both right.

The point that Draymond's making is simple. If you are holding it against Steph that he doesn't have a finals m v P, then you are being dishonest, because he damn sure deserved to win it in two thousand fifteen, and he played like a finals m v P in two thousand seventeen, and in two thousand eighteen he he The whole thing that Draymond was trying to say is Steph was every bit as good as Draymond, or excuse me, Steph was every bit as good as k D during

that era, which is true. They were two of the top three players in the world playing at the peak of their powers. They both impacted the game at a very similar level, just in their own unique way. That's the only point Draymond was trying to make. It was about Steph and a lot of this mainly Lebron fans, because again, this is all this all stems from stand culture. The theme of this segment is stayand culture and fans being obsessed with bolstering an individual players legacy instead of

paying attention to what's happening in a team sport. Is how we get into these debates to begin with. It's what drove Kevin Durant away from the Warriors, and it's the reason why he's dealing with this right now. And it started with Lebron fans discrediting Steph Curry for not having a Finals MVP, which was total bullshit, and Draymond

was just simply making that point. Now, where KD is right is I don't think it's fair for Draymond to say that that Steph faced seven times as many double teams as k D, because neither player, when they were crossing half court was just getting an outright double from somebody to get the ball out of their hands. However, they ran a lot of high pick and roll with Stephen Draymond, and every team for the last half decade has guarded the Steph Draymond high pick and roll by

blitzing it. And the reason why is simple, because Draymond is not as much of a scoring threat, and so your best bet to try to stop that action is to get the ball out of steps hands and make Draymond make a play. And yes, Steph is dragging a second defender with him, but it's a second defender that Draymond brought to him. So yes, by the book, Steph's functional steps specific role in that offense to initiate things by running high pick and roll involved him dragging multiple defenders.

But it was by design in the scheme and it worked out great for Golden State. Why because Draymond is one of the best short role players in the league, because he's one of the best passing big men ever, and Clay Thompson's every bit as important. Guys, The Warriors were sixteenth in offense this year, despite death playing in sixty four games. How did that happen? Because important pieces were missing? Again, this is a team sport, guys, I thought Lebron was a top ten player in the NBA

this year and the Lakers missed the playoffs. The Lakers missed the playoffs in a league that currently allows twenty of the thirty teams to be in the playoffs, and Lebron is a top ten player could not get them into that mix. That's how much a team, That's how much your teammates matter, and that's why staying culture is

so stupid. The bottom line is, Kadie needed the Warriors, but the Warriors also needed k D. Looking at kad first, he was playing in an archaic system with a ball hog point guard that frequently took more shots than him on a team that lacked a lot of the offensive personnel needed to Katie to play a free for a free flowing form of basketball, which has always been what he wanted to play, and so he left them to go to a team that helped him play a style

of basketball that he wanted to play, and as a result, he was surrounded with the necessary talent and he won championships. But Golden State also doesn't have three titles right now if Katie doesn't go to them. The biggest weakness of the Steph Warriors dynasty was not having a big wing that could persistently pressure the rim or score against mismatches consistently inefficiently. When Katie filled that hole, they became unbeatable.

So Katie absolutely was unbelievably important to Golden State and establishing the dynasty that they have. But so was Steph and so is Draymond, and so was Clay Thompson, and so were all of the really smart role players over the years that functionally allowed the Golden State system to work because it depends on high i q s making plays off of the attention their stars gather. That's why a guy like Kelly you Bray wasn't a great fit. That's why a guy like Ted Baysmore wasn't a great fit.

But again, there there is no individual dynasty. I've seen Lebron, who's the second best player who's ever played the game and the best player of this era, lose often when he doesn't have the requisite pieces. There is no individual dynasty. Dynasties require greatness from a great many people. And I don't blame kd for being upset. He devoted the best

years of his career, his absolute peak. He devoted them to that franchise, and all they did was tell everyone that Steph was better and kick him in the butt on his way out the door. So that's why he left, and that's why that's why he feels the way he does now. And again, is Golden's eight thriving without him? Yes, but there's a lot of reasons for that. They have a lot of talent, the draft picks, they were able

to get from down years, from injuries. Andrew Wiggins, who was one of their most important players this season, was retrieved using the k D asset. If you don't have Andrew Wiggins, you're probably not a championship contender if you don't have Andrew and you don't have Andrew Wiggins without Kevin Durant. And I'm not trying to undercut anything that Golden State has done, because this is all a product of all of them and everything that they bring to the table. All I'm saying is, why do you gotta

treat KD like that? Like he won your championships? Why are you kicking him when he's gone? I just I just don't get it. And guys, what do you think Steph thinks the guy you're standing, the guy that you are uplifting at Katie's expense. He knows that he needed KD, just like Katie knows that he needed Steph. He would never treat a k D that way because he knows better because he was on the court. And again, we've

all done this. When I was younger, I used to engage in a lot of this nonsense with the Lebron stuff. But my point is is the whole basketball world and the way we talk about the game will get better

the sooner we get past this. The sooner we talked about how the Golden State Warriors were a perfect basketball team constructed with an all world offensive engine and Steph Curry in the best tip of the spear in the league, and Kevin Durant and the best defensive player in the league, and Draymond Green and the second best shooter to ever lace them up in Clay Thompson in one of the best perimeter defenders to ever lace them up in Andrea Guadala, and one of the best midrange scorers to ever lace

them up in Sean Livingston. We can go on and on and on. And one of the best coaches, Steve Kerr is one of the best coaches in the league. The bottom line is this was it's a dynasty, and dynasty's are not based on individuals. Dynasties are based on a group effort. And I say that as someone who thinks Steph Curry genuinely has a case to be a top five player in NBA history if he wins this year.

Just to me, the individual legacies, we don't need to have those discussions by trouncing all over other people that also have great individual legacies. We're just better than that. And I feel bad for Kadi, and I feel bad for Steph because he ends up at he ends up taking on a lot of this reputation, which is really coming from his fans, and I just hope eventually we

can get past all that. We're gonna bring my guy Carson on and we're gonna play a game of over unders based on the NBA Finals, presented by Fandel Sports Book. All right, Carson, you're gonna name an over under that's currently listed on FanDuel, and I'm gonna tell you, guys whether or not I think you should go over or under. All right, Jason, We're gonna start with the point total for game one over under two twelve and a half. Which side are you on? I am on the under

for this one couple of things. First of all, both teams right now are playing at a pace under one hundred possessions per game in this postseason run. What that means is, when you look at things like offensive rating and defensive rating, you can count on the scoreboard reflecting

slightly less than whatever that number is. So to be clear, like I've mentioned before, Golden State's offensive rating in this postseason has been great against Denver and against the Grizzlies with Jaw, and against that Dallas Mavericks team which lacked a lot of defensive personnel. However, this is the best defense they've played, and against Memphis without Jaw, which was the best defense they played before this series. They only average about a hundred and four points per one hundred

possessions during this regular season. With Steph on the floor Verse Boston, Golden State only average nine four points per one hundred possessions. And I think they're gonna win Game one, so I think this is gonna be low scoring. I think it's gonna be both teams really really caught off guard by the intensity and the increased level of competition. I think it's gonna be a low scoring affairs, so I'd go under to twelve point five. Okay, now we

got Steph Curry over under twenty seven and a half points. Jason, which side are you taking? So I think Steph is gonna have big scoring nights in this series. For instance, in game two's in this playoff run, he's averaging thirty one points per game. However, typically Steph in the first game of a playoff series is more interested in being the decoy and letting his teammates get involved. He has not scored over twenty four points or taken more than twenty shots in any of the game ones in this

postseason run. Plus, he's adjusting to the best defense that he's gonna play to this point in the season. He's just it's going to be a game where I think

he's more comfortable playing a supporting role offensively. Again, not an indicator of the way he's gonna score over the series, However, judging on his approaches so far in game ones in this playoff run, it's smart to go under twenty seven point five points with Steph tonight Tomorrow night, all right, Draymond points, rebounds, and assists combined over under twenty one and a half. This one's tough because Draymond's impact is

always so different based on the matchup. I'm gonna go under here, and the reason why is Boston is big, not just underneath the basket, but on the perimeter. But I expect Draymond to be locked in box outs almost NonStop with the likes of Robert Williams and Grant Williams and Al Horford. And because of that, the rebounds themselves are gonna end up falling to his teammates crashing from the perimeter. In addition to that, just in general, it's

extremely difficult to score against this Boston team. So even though Draymond, I think is going to be forced to be a score in some respects, I don't expect him to have a massive statistical impact in this series. I think his he'll have the classic Draymond impact and his ability to make decisions in the short roll, him being the defensive court or back, his ability to bang bodies with players that are a lot bigger than him. He's gonna be classic Draymond. I just don't expect big box

score numbers from him. So I'm gonna go under twenty one and a half here. All right, we'll see if the streak of betting unders continues here. Jason Tatum over under twenty eight and a half points. Jason, which side do you like? They're big shock? I'm going with the under here, Carson. I don't think people realize. I don't think people realize just just nearly how much of a rock fight this series is gonna be. This is again Golden State in Boston, two best defenses in the league

this year. You know, now, Boston I think is a better defense overall. But I mean, these are two incredible defenses. Everyone thinks of them as as offensive firepower types of teams, and they are. But typically teams that commit to defense the way that they do don't have the legs to just go light the world on fire on offense. And so I expect it to be a lot more of a rock fight as far as Tatum goes. A couple of things. First of all, Golden State is a lot

better defensively than people think. And I thought Luca was a great indicator of just how much of a cold like, just as much of a shock it is to step into the arena and experience the different level of intensity and scheming and different looks and all the different things that you get from Golden State, and so because of that, I expect Tatum to struggle. Also, just in general, the NBA Finals are a massive stage, and I think one of the most underplayed dynamics in this series is Golden

States experience. I have seen so many times over the years, young teams just struggle with the scale and the scope and the history and the pressure and the vibe that comes with the NBA Finals. And as good as Jayson Tatum is, I do expect him to experience some of that, some of those jitters. So I expect an inefficient, sloppy game one from Jayson Tatum. So I'm going under twenty eight and a half points alright, last one here, Jordan Pool over under eighteen and a half points and assists

can bind Jason. What do you think? So this is this one? I'm going over eighteen and a half is super low. Uh. First of all, against Boston this season and their only matchup that Jordan Pool played in, he had thirty two points plus assists and in game ones in this playoff runs, so three, uh, we have three games to take as a sample there in game ones, he's been particularly aggressive. He's averaging thirty two points plus assists in game ones in this playoff run. A couple

of things too. The way that Boston is going to defend is going to demand dribble penetration from Steph and Jordan Pool. They specifically need him to be very aggressive because I put in my notes like will he get enough minutes? That's my biggest concern because if Boston is

punishing him too relentlessly. On the other end, Steve Kerr has shown the willingness, and Mike Brown as well, when Steve Kerr was out, has shown the willingness to pull Jordan Pool when he's not playing well on the defensive end of the floor. So that's one of the one of the weird kind of like variables here. However, I think they're gonna need him so much on offense to get the necessary dribble penetration to keep Boston in rotation that I think he is gonna play a lot. And

once again he's been aggressive in game ones. He's shown the ability to score against this Boston defense in this regular season. I think eighteen and a half is a very achievable number for him to hit in points plus assists. Out of the five bets that we threw out there today, which of those over unders is your favorite? Jason, Oh, that is a very good question, man. I think I'm gonna go with Tatum under twenty eight and a half.

I just think, remember when we were debating in the in the Dallas series, like are they gonna make Luca beat him as a score or are they gonna send help? And uh put the onus on the shooters to make shots. Golden State very quickly from the beginning of that series was like we're attacking Luca and we're gonna make them make shots. Remember the Dallas got twenty eight wide open threes in Game one. That that just kind of shows

you the general approach that Steve Kerr has here. Now, if I remember correctly, Lucas still had a monster scoring game in that game, but he's a gunner. Lucas a gunner in a way that Tatum is not. And so I think the Tatum has shown a willingness in recent games to be the guy who accepts the defensive attention and keeps things moving with the past. So I think the safest bet for Game one is Tatum under twenty eight and a half points the volume