Hoops Tonight - Top 25 Players in the NBA: "Luka Doncic is a bonafide, top-tier superstar"

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I took these rankings very seriously. I'm gonna be honest with you. Everything after number ten is still up in the air. For me. I have stared at it and stared at it and stared at it NonStop, and I keep changing my mind on stuff. And the main reason why is every one of these guys is so close. To be clear, the ten guys we have remaining are what like Jokicic, Embiid, Luca Tatum, Lebron are small forwards, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Yannis. I think that's all of them.

Jimmy Butler, I think, is the tenth guy. So there's ten guys there, and in any given playoff series, any of those guys could win. In any given playoff series, I think there's a clear guy at the top in Nikola Jokicic right who deserves that spot, and we're gonna get there. Big shock, you guys. Anybody who's been following this show knows that Jokic is going to be number one on my list. But after that, like it's anybody's

series I've watched. In a playoff series this year, Anthony Davis look like a slightly better player than Steph Curry, even though Steph Curry literally won a Finals MVP the year before. That doesn't mean that stet the Ad is better than Steph. It just means that these guys are all super close, and so in any given series, if a couple of role players are different one way or another, a couple of things go one way or another, any one of these guys can win. I have Luka Doncic

at number ten. The gap between Luka Doncic and the guys at the very top of the league is extremely small. So again, don't take it super super personally if I have your favorite player a little bit lower on this list. My favorite player is Lebron James, as you guys know, and he's pretty low on this list. That doesn't mean that if a playoff series started tomorrow, I wouldn't want

him on my team. It just means that man, like all these other guys, are so good, and he's in his twenty first season and eight he's a million years old. You get the point. So all I'm saying is like, again, I have Luka Doncic at number two, but I view him as a bona fide top tier superstar that is absolutely capable of being the best player on a championship team. This is just the way things broke in this particular season.

And to make a long story short, the reason why I have Luka Doncics at ten is because he missed the playoffs. So there's a couple of specific reasons why the MAVs missed the playoffs that I think Lucas shares some culpability for. So we're going to get into that here later on, but let's start with the season recap. He averaged thirty two points, nine rebounds, and eight assists, yet a career high in points per game, also a

career high sixty one percent true shooting percentage. I think Luka Doncic is the best helio centric shot creator in the league. Now, what does helio centric mean in the context of basketball? When and I didn't coin this term,

somebody else did. I couldn't tell you who did. But when I think of the helio centric star, I think of either getting the defensive rebound of a teammate, getting the rebound and immediately passing it to him, or him getting the inbounds passed from the baseline and him slowly bringing the ball up the floor. And every single possession is determined with a live dribble by that player near the top of the key, and the only time they ever give up the basketball is basically when they're tired.

And usually heliocentric players, they spend so much energy creating shots that they're not very active when they give up the basketball. Most of them tend to stand thirty feet away from the basket and basically rest and occasionally take a catch and shoot jump shot. But for the most part, they determine the outcome of every single possession. That's what

I think of with heliocentric players in the league. Think like prime James Harden, although obviously he's had to give up the ball a lot more in later versions of his career. Trey Young's another guy who who I think of in that context. This particular breed of basketball player is becoming a little less common, which I think is a good thing. But that's what I think of when I think of heliocentric I think Luca is the very best at it. He was the best high volume pick

and role player in the entire NBA this year. There were fifteen players who had at least a thousand reps. This is that high volume pick and roll list I've been using throughout our entire player rankings. Luca ranked number one on that list, averaging one point one five five points per possession. Good combination of deadly shot making and the ability to make all of the necessary reads one

point zero nine points per ISO. If you remember our high volume ISO list, there were twenty five players who did at least two hundred and fifty possessions of isolation basketball. He ranked seventh on that list out of twenty five. And then one point one five points per post up. There were There were twenty players in the NBA this year who ran at least two hundred post ups, and

Luca ranked fourth out of those twenty players. So one of the the very best pick and roll player, one of the very best post up players in the league, and near the top of the high volume ISO players in the league as well. Shot making pretty good, not great in catch and shoot situations thirty one percent in catch and shoot. But just to give you an idea

of just how heliocentric Luka Doncic is. Of his seven hundred and sixty six jump shots that he took this year, according to Synergy, only eighty seven were catch and shoots. Think of that again, seven hundred sixty six jump shots. All of them were off the dribble except for eighty seven and catch and shoot situations. He shot thirty nine point four percent on pull up jumpers, though, which is

very good. And of those pull up jumpers, he made one hundred and fifty eight from three on thirty four percent, which bumps up the effective field goal percentage. So Luca's effective field goal percentage on pull up jump shots was fifty one percent last year, which is actually really good. Anything over fifty percent is really good. Remember, Paul George was at like forty nine percent, and he's considered a great pull up jump shooter. He shot fifty four percent

on floaters. He's got one of the best little short push shots in the league. Sixty nine percent on hook shots and sixty eight percent at the rim, which is really good for forward as well. Also, and this is the part that's like almost impossible to uh to learn as a basketball player. This is just a gift that some players have. Luca is one of the very best passers in the league. I have him in that very

top tier. He's a master at manipulating help defenders. When he gets in pick and roll, he's just watching the help. He's just watching the low man. And if the lowman doesn't come, he's gonna keep working his way down. Remember lowman is the guy guarding the guy in the weak side corner, and his responsibility is to effectively make a read as to whether or not he needs to help in pick and roll at the rim. And so if lucas going over the ball screen, he's got the defender

trailing him. On the play, the role man is going hard towards the rim. He's just working his way downhill, and as soon as that screen defender steps up onto Luca, the lob is open. But if the lowman steps over, he's hitting that skip pass to the corner. Every single time low man stays home, he's throwing that lob. Big man doesn't step up and stays back on the lob.

That's where he's taking that little push shot in the lane, or getting closer to the basket and pump fake and drawing a foul and making the shot with a defender draped on his back. He's just an absolute master at manipulating the help defenders in pick and roll, which is why he was the best high volume pick and roll passer in the league this year. Very similar in our bestvolume best high volume pick and roll player in the league this year. He also similar thing in post up situations.

If he runs the ball screen and he gets a switch and it gets a smaller player, He's going to back him down to the post. He's going to just work his way into the lane, and if the second defender comes, he's making that kickout pass. No defender, He's going to shoot one of those little short jumpers or push shots in the lane. Luca, I'm gonna be honest with you, guys. Luca is a very polarizing player for me as a basketball fan, because there are a lot

of things that I absolutely love about his game. And those of you guys who have been following the show for a while could probably guess because my favorite like he kind of fits the a lot of my favorite archetype traits in basketball. But then he also has some things that drive me crazy. He's big and strong, which helps him to get to his spots in the playoffs. Well, you guys know how much I value strength in a

playoff setting. He's a super versatile shot creator. Like all of his possessions look the same, but his shot attempts tend to look very different, Like he's gonna, you know, take a weird looking push shot or floater or hook shot or jumper they're all gonna look different. They're a

couple that are similar. Like, generally speaking, his step back three is always going to his left, So if he's in and really any step back jumper, if he's in a situation where he's working with a live dribble and he wants to go to a step back, he's gonna step back going to his left, so hard, right foot forward, pushing back and kind of in that like a leaning

fade away jumper kind of situation. And then in the post, if he's gonna take a jumper, he's always going over his right shoulder, So he's gonna fade over his right shoulder and shoot a jumper. If he goes over his left shoulder, it's gonna be a hook shot or a pushot. He doesn't take fade aways or off the dribble jumpers going to his right. So that's this one thing that is somewhat consistent. But other than that, almost every single

shot attempt he takes look different. Almost every single layup he takes has kind of a different release angle or release point or things along those lines. He is a super versatile shot maker, which is what makes him so incredibly difficult to guard. Again, if you like imagine you're guarding Luca, you don't have You're not expecting the same shot every time you're you can't contest to a specific spot because he'll just adjust his release angle a little higher,

a little lower, He'll pump aking step through. He just there's way too many different types of shots that he can make, and that that we always I've always talked about how that versatile shot making just makes you more effective in the playoffs. He's also as an archetype, that textbook rim pressuring playmaking forward that I've always gravitated towards.

As Again, when we did the archetypes of players, it was big rim pressuring play making forward, three level scoring forward, hyper athletic guard center, and then like superstar center like yokicin EMBIID, and then Unicorn was basically the last one on that list. My favorite of those five archetypes is the big rim pressuring play making forward. So again another reason why I should like Luca. Uh. He was top ten in points in the paint this here with eight

hundred and eighty six. I think he finished ninth if I remember correctly, consistently makes teams pay for overhelping and doubling, like we talked about earlier, he generated twenty two points per game just off of his passes. So the Mavericks average twenty two points a game directly off of Luka Doncich's passes, which ranked sixth in the entire NBA this season. And lastly, the last trait that I've always gravitated towards with basketball players, Luca is a freaking psychopath man. He

is a crazy competitor. He absolutely wants to destroy you and let you know about it, which is something that I always really liked in basketball players, players that really, anybody in life that lacks competitiveness. It's something that I struggled to relate to. Obviously, I shouldn't say that I hate people like that. That's mean, But like I've always gravitated towards competitors, there are people that I can relate to. I try to find guys like that to play with

me because I still take basketball very seriously. It's just a trait that I've always been very drawn to. But Luca has a lot of things that I dislike about basketball players, and he's outrageously helio centric. We were talking about hello centrism earlier that particular archetype is not an archetype that I like. He ran six hundred and fifty five ISOs this year, which was most in the league.

To give you an idea of just how crazy that is, Lebron James and Kevin Durant, two of Luca's peers at his position, combined for fewer ISOs than Luca ran this season. So even though most of his shot attempts have a unique variety to them, his possessions all look the same. Lucas getting the ball on the back court and he's walking it up the floor, which, by the way, is why the maps were twenty eighth in pace and why I'm really excited about Kyrie being on the team to

kind of bring more pace to the team. But he's gonna walk the ball up the floor, and he's gonna do one of two things. He's either going to call for a ball screen from the big man and start to work that equation. I just talked to you guys about trying to get the help defender to come out of the corner to help at the rim, to open up the skip pass or to open up the lob pass if that guy doesn't help, or to take a shot.

If the big man doesn't help, or if the big man switches, he's going to take him out to the perimeter and he's probably gonna take a step back three.

Or if there's a smaller defender somewhere on the floor that he really wants to target, say Patrick Beverley against the Clippers in the playoffs those years, he's going to call him into the ball screen, get the switch, and he's going to work him down to the post, and he's going to post him up and either make a play or look to score over the top, or if

a team is dumb enough. I think the Clippers at a couple points in those series straight up just put Pat Bev on Luco, which was incredibly foolish, and Luca towards them in those situations by just bringing the ball up the floor and attacking. He's looking to get their big man in pick and roll to make a decision, or to target your worst defender and make a decision. He's doing that every single time, which is why he ends up with ridiculously high volume pick and roll numbers

and ridiculously high volume isolation and post up numbers. There's value in that. I want to be clear him being great r at that is super valuable. It shows in the points per possession. It's ironically the most one of the most effective forms of playoff offense in short bursts in pivotal playoff games. But that's literally all that Luca does. There's another stat to kind of demonstrate what I'm talking about. Ninety three catch and shoot jumpers with almost seven hundred ISOs.

Ninety three catch and shoot jumpers with almost seven hundred ISOs. Lebron and KD combined to take four hundred and fifty catch and shoot jumpers. Why how did Lebron and KD end up average or between the two of them averaging two hundred and twenty five catch and shoot jumpers a year, while Luca only took ninety three. How does that happen? It happens because Lebron and Kevin Durant play normal basketball. They slide in and function as part of a five

man unit, a five man flow. Then in a specific situation, when all of the circumstances call for it, Lebron or KD might start spamming in action. You will see that with Lebron, like he'll just flow as part of the team and then it's like, oh, it's the fourth quarter against Denver in Game one, We've got a chance to steal this game. Come here, Jamal Murray. You can't guard in the me Austin Reeves gohot screen action and he'll

run that time and time again. They will spam in short bursts in pivotal moments, but that's all they'll do. They don't do that from the opening tip of the first quarter through the entire game. And how do you function as part of a five man flow? You have to be willing to do work off the ball. Both Lebron, James and Kevin Durant operate a lot off the ball.

Lebron this year did a ton of ball screening, so he'd give the ball to Austin Reeves or Dennis Schroeder or D'Angelo Russell or Russell Westbrook, and he set a ball screen and rolled to the basket. Lebron also does a ton of duck in the post, either through high low action or sprinting up the floor in transition. If he has a smaller defender on him, he's going to try to get a deep seal when the defense isn't

set and help. He does all of these things to be a functional offensive player when he doesn't have the basketball, including averaging two hundred and twenty or taking you know, him and Katie combining for four hundred and fifty catch and shoot threes this year, or catch and shoot jumpers. I should say Kevin Durant himself. He runs a ton

of stuff off of wide pindowns. If you find if you go on my Twitter feed and go back about two weeks, because I think it was when I was in San Francisco, go back about two weeks and I posted a video of Kevin Durant and all of the off ball work that he does to kind of demonstrate. It was from a game last season when he was

with the Nets. But he'll run off of wide pin downs, he'll seal high post position and make spinoffs to the rim for lobs, and and he'll like he just does a ton of work off the basketball, And so that allows them to disappear into the flow of games for long stretches and then grab the reins when they need to, which saves them fatigue, which saves them the repetitiveness that

makes them easier to guard. Those are very important traits that I think it's better to be helio centric and short bursts than it is to be heliocentric in totality. Is basically the point. I've never been a fan of players that lean entirely into heliocentric basketball. I think it inflates per possession numbers for individual players, but it becomes easier to guard in large doses, which hurts them, particularly

at the end of games when they've won. A single defense has seen that action fifty times in a single game, and at the end of playoff series, when the single defense has seen that action for five games, you'll see those players start to lose effectiveness towards the end of games and series, which is exactly what happened to James Harden. Hasn't happened nearly to the same extent with Luca because of the variety in his shot selection, but you do

see Luca fatigue towards the end of playoff games. You see Luca's efficiency drop a little bit at the end of those games. I think that's something that will go that will go better for Luca in the future if he finds a way to kind of disappear into the flow more often so that when he grabs the reins, it's even more effective. The last crazy thing that drives the last thing that drives me crazy with Luca is he just simply does not care to defend or box out.

He grabs eight point six rebounds a game, but they are mostly uncontested defensive rebounds. I watched a lot of Dallas after the Kyrie Irving trade this year, and I can't tell you how many times, like in a pivotal moment when another team's on a run, or in a fourth quarter possession when they're down five and they desperately need to stop, or Luca just will miss a box out because he just the shot goes up and he just turns and looks at the rim and just kind

of starts walking in towards the rim. He just or defensively will just throw a sloppy closed out or or fail to help in a low man situation. He just I thought this was probably the worst defensive season of Luca's career, and just in general with his commitment to the dirty work. It was almost like he let go of the rope. It was like the Kyrie Irving trade went down. He identified pretty quickly early on that they

weren't very good and I agree. I was the first one to tell you, guys, I didn't think the Mavericks were going to be good this season. It was going to be the following season if they had any chance. But Luca was culpable in a lot of ways because of his lack of commitment to the dirty work. So that's kind of the perfect segue into the reason why I had Luca down at ten. Remember that all these guys are close. All of these guys from one to

twelve I think are superstars. I had him above Kawhi because Kauhi's lack of availability just completely erases him from these equations. I had him over Devin Booker because just last season, the season before this previous one, Luca just utterly dominated Devin Booker in a playoff series and kind of embarrassed him down the stretch of the series. So to me, I didn't feel comfortable putting him below Devin Booker.

Luca has no case to be over any of the superstars that are ahead of him at this point in time, after the worst defensive season of his career and a season one Again, guys, this is a league that allows twenty teams out of the thirty into the playoffs twenty of the thirty two thirds of the teams. There's no excuse for missing the playoffs in these fields, as in this field, as a bona fide superstar, unless you've been super injured to the point where you miss a ton

of games. And I think Luca played like sixty five. This is not Lebron and Anthony Davis each playing forty games. That's not out that. That's not how this season went. Missing the playoffs. Missing the play in in a twenty out of thirty team in a league that allows twenty out of the thirty teams in to me, hurts you on this list, which is why I have him down at number ten. And again Kyrie Irving. I thought Kyrie was awesome after going to Dallas, and the numbers show that,

the scoreboards showed that it was Luca who declined. Kyrie's not as good a player is Luca, But Luca just did not play well down the stretch of the season. That's it. I am a huge believer in Luka Doncic's ceiling. I do think he's gonna work his way back up

this list very soon. Again, specific things I want to see him work on getting better at the dirty work, which starts by conditioning his body to get to the point where he can devote resources to that end without hurting the offensive end, and then two working on going extended stretches of basketball games as a cog and a five man system rather than always playing the heliocentric style.

It will help his teammates get into a rhythm, it will save energy and reps to make him harder to guard at the later portions of games and in series, and it will make it more appealing for other stars to come play with him, which is the ultimate goal. You need to make Kyrie happy so that he doesn't ask for a trade. If Kyrie does ask for a trade, because he's Kyrie irving, you need to eventually convince somebody to say, I want to partner it with Luca on

this thing. And if all he does is the heliocentric thing, the only stars that are going to consider are pick and roll guys, Guys like Anthony Davis. And there's like one of those who's really really good in the league, right, who's an actual star who just screens and rolls all the time, Like Jokic ain't going anywhere. I mean embiids, embid in Luca would just be a really weird fit,

you know. So it's just one of those things. If he wants to get a legitimate co star to commit long term, he's gonna have to demonstrate a willingness to play a more share the load type of offensive system. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. Like I said at the time of me recording this on Sunday early morning or a late morning, I should say, I don't even know who I'm gonna put it a number nine for Tuesday, but I will let you guys know.

I'm gonna think about it and sleep on it one more time, and I will let you guys know on Tuesday. As always, I appreciate your support and I'll see you next time. The volume