Hoops Tonight - Top 25 Players in the NBA: Jayson Tatum can be the BEST player in the world

Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter Underscore Jason LT. So you guys don't miss any show announcements. And for whatever reason you miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, don't forget you can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight, all right, let's talk some basketball. So I was torn between three guys for this spot, Anthony Davis,

Joe El Embiid, and Jason Tatum. And all three of these guys are very very different players, and they all have cases to be over each other for one reason or another. Right Like Joel Embiid is by far the best offensive player in that group in terms of actual shot creation ability, right, Anthony Davis is by far the best defensive player in that group by a massive chasm. And Jason Tatum is the most dependably reliable and productive player of those three guys by far right, And so

each of them kind of has a unique case. Anthony Davis had this kind of like revolutionary playoff run where his defensive ability warped every single playoff series he was in as he dragged that Lakers team from at like a very precarious situation in the standings and an injured Lebron to the playoffs and then all the way to the Western Conference finals. Joel Embiid literally is the reigning

league MVP. And then again, Jason Tatum another season where he plays seventy plus games, averages a shit ton of point points, does it efficiently just like he always does. So it was a tough call for me, but I

opted for Tatum at seven. We're going to get into the reasons why later, but the gist of it is for me personally, I'm always going to value a player ceiling or their singular elite skill more than the total package, because I think that that translates better to playoff success in the long run, and the important context here surrounding everything we discussed with Jason Tatum today because he does technically have more playoff success than both Anthony Davis and

Joel Embiid in recent seasons, although Anthony Davis is a NBA champion from the bubble, which was an incredible stretch of ad basketball. But the simple fact is is that, and you guys know that have listened to the show for a while, I've said this consistently. I think the Boston Celtics have had easily the most talented roster in the entire NBA over the last two years. So, you know, again, when it comes to evaluating the playoff success, a lot

of that. That's what's interesting about the Celtics team is they've made the conference finals twice in the NBA Finals once in the last three seasons, and as we look at it, like it, it hasn't been overly impressive all the time. And you know, as as we a lot of times we come away from those series feeling like

the Celtics underachieved in one way or another. There's absolutely no reason in the world they should not have beat the Miami Heat last year, right played with their food quite a bit against the Sixers, somehow managed to go down three to two before they hit the Jets and were clearly better. The Atlanta Hawks took them to six. Last year. The Heat had that sequence for Jimmy Butler's shooting a pull up three that could have sent them

to the finals and sent the Celtics home early. The Bucks without Chris Middleton and extremely limited in their off ball shooting, just guarding Giannis with three guys every time, and that series went to seven games. Really, the only dominant stretch of basketball from Boston in the last couple of years was their sweep of the Brooklyn Nets, which was impressive for the record, and that was when I really came on board with the Celtics defensively, although they

haven't been the same team. And so again that's the important context as we discussed Tatum today in terms of his team's success, not undercutting what he's done, but the reality is is with the amount of talent that has been on that roster, you could argue the Celtics have underachieved. And that is a big part of why I have Tatum down at number seven. A quick recap of this season thirty points, nine rebounds, and five assists on sixty

one percent true shooting. Again, in parts of today's show, I'm gonna be somewhat critical of certain elements of Jason Tatum's game, but when it comes to sheer production, there are very few players in the league that are as consistently available and productive as Jason Tatum is. As a matter of fact, this is crazy stat. Jayson Tatum has scored five nine and sixty three points in the last

three regular seasons, which leads the entire NBA. So he is your total points leader over the last three seasons. Luka Doncic was in second place and Joel Embiid was in third place. For those of you who are curious, some play type data not very good compared to his peers. He was below a point per possession in both pick and roll and ISO's zero point nine to nine points per possession and pick and roll really just lowered by

his own shooting. He only shot thirty eight and a half percent on field goals that he shot out of pick and roll. Watched a bunch of Tatum pick and roll this morning, about seventy five clips or so. And it just to kind of refresh myself. And really it's just he takes a lot of really tough shots when he attacks the rim and pick and roll. He's excellent when he passes out of pick and roll. Like I'm

always blown away by Jason Tatum's passing. I'd say, among like the young forwards in the league that kind of have like a scoring archetype, I wouldn't put him as high as Brandon Ingram. I'd probably have him at the top of that list in term of the scoring mind it. Again, I'm not looking at guys like Luca there, but in terms of that kind of like wing archetype, I'd put Tatum probably second in terms of playmaking in that tier. So I wish he would kind of lean on that

a little bit more. But he just took a lot of really, really tough shots. And we'll get to this when we talk about his shot making later on. But Tatum had a miserable shot making season, and that was a big thing to undercut him in a lot of these situations. So again, almost all of his peers are up over a point per possession in pick and roll, not Jason Tatum zero point ninety seven points per ISO,

once again lowered by his own shooting. When Jason Tatum shot out of isolation situations, he only shot thirty four point nine percent. He was very effective in the post though this year, one point two to three points per possession, which is like outstanding okay volume. He only did it about a time and a half per game, but he shot really well fifty six percent field goals shooting out of the post, really good face up jump shot regardless

of the pivot movie get to it. He could either turn kind of in a reverse pivot or and over the top pivot face rise up and knock down that you know, fifteen to eighteen foot jump shot. Good right shoulder fades, so when he would turn his back and he bump you with his right shoulder, he could get into that fade away kind of going over that right shoulder and make it pretty well. Also had some success in face up situations, just ripping through to the right

and going hard to the basket. So he also, like in general, I liked how quick and decisive he was out of the post. Doesn't like sit and stare for a long time, just gets the ball and makes a quick decision and goes and has a couple of shots that he can count on there that he goes to he also passes. Again, Tatum's passing is always going to be one of the things that's kind of underrated with him. The Celtics scored thirty six points on thirty Tatum passes out of the post, which is again well over a

point per possession. Again, not a good shot making season for Tatum. Really good catch and shoot sixty two percent effective fielgal percentage on catch and shoot jumpers when he was unguarded, seventy percent effective field goal percentage on catch and shoot jumpers, so like, if he got to really set his rhythm and get to his muscle memory, that shit was going in the vast majority of the time.

But he was twenty eight point six percent on pull up jump shots according to Synergy, which is really really bad. Even if you wait it for threes, and again about seventy percent of the pull up jump shots that Jason Tatum took war threes, it still is just a forty percent effective field goal percentage, which, again in pull up jump shooting, like the minimum allowable for like a good pull up shooter, in my opinion, is in the high forties.

The best of them are in the fifties, and then Steph obviously breaks the mold and is in the sixties, and I think Kd's in the low sixties as well. But forty percent is just this is really bad. I mean, we're talking about a twenty percent gap and an effective field goal percentage between him and Kevin Durant, for instance,

in regular season pull up shooting. So a big part of that, in my opinion, is and again you see it when you watch Tatum, he just takes a lot of really really tough and as he's kind of cleaned up his shot variety to kind of limit himself to above the break pull up threes and going all the way to the rim, it's made him easier to guard too, and guys are kind of sitting on that shot now, which I think is a big part of why it

didn't go in as much. He also shot just thirty nine percent on floaters, and he does not have a hook shot out of the post. He made just one all season. He was very good at the rim though, four point three restricted area makes per game, which is very good on seventy percent shooting, which is very good.

So a lot like as you kind of look at it, he's like outstanding and catch and shoot situations and outstanding at the rim, but all of the other shot making stuff is pretty far below where his peers are, and I think that's one of the main reasons why he can get clunky sometimes in the half court. What does that all add up to. He's pretty average shot creator

compared to most of his peers. He's an above average playmaker, but he's a blow average shot maker that kind of just comes together for the Tatum half court pass package. He does bolster his numbers, because again, how do you get to thirty points per game on sixty one percent thru shooting if you're just not very good in live dribble shot creation situations. And the truth of the matter is is when he does have an advantage, he's outrageously good.

He was one point twenty six points per possession in spot up situations. Not just with the dead eye catch and shoot shooting like we talked about earlier, he's also very very good at attacking closeouts. There were thirty players in the NBA last year that logged at least three hundred spot up possessions, and Tatum ranked second behind Michael Porter Junior, who's the guy who I always reference, is the best at it in the league. So Michael Porter Junior is a best spot up player in the league.

Tatum's number two, and that's a big part of why he has the scoring volume and efficiency that he has in catch and shoot situations. In catch and drive situations, he's insane. He also scored three hundred and ninety three points in transition this year. That was eighth in the entire league. So not only is Jaylen Brown one of the best transition weapons in the league, but Jason Tatum himself is one of the best trans weapons in the league.

That's a big part of what drives that productivity. So again, if Tatum could figure out the on ball stuff, he could have some ridiculous scoring and efficiency seasons because he's so good already at the easier parts of the game. Had a super weird playoff run this year. It was

kind of an outlier in a lot of ways. Last year, his playoff run was more in line with what his regular seasons were, like outstanding off ball shooting and outstanding playmaking, but on the ball stuff, the shot making wasn't good. That kind of continued from last year's regular season into the playoffs, into this year's regular season, but then in this postseason it was bizarre. His on ball creation actually

went up a level in this postseason. He was forty seven percent effective filgal percentage on pull up jumpers, which is seven percent better than the regular season, made a higher percentage of his floaters, he was over a point per possession and pick and roll and ISOs and post ups, so he had a randomly good shot creation postseason, but all of his other stuff tanked. His rim finishing tanked. He shot just thirty three point eight percent on catch

and shoot jumpers. So ironically, it was all the easy stuff this year that abandoned Jason Tatum, which was kind Again, that kind of tells me that it was probably an outlier, but we'll see as we as we progress forward into the future. Again, Tatum's only twenty five years old, and that's a big context thing that we're gonna have to keep in mind as we go forward. But you know, it's funny as we zoom out a little bit, like him and Jalen Brown, they're very different players. For the record, right,

Like Jalen Brown's way more creative. I think in some of his shot making stuff, especially in the mid range. Tatum's a better defensive player, a better passer, you know, I think I think Jalen Brown has some scoring highs that are higher than Jason Tatum. But the two of them are. They're very different, but they have some similar issues, right, Like, both of them are absolutely top tier offensive players. When they already have an advantage, they'll kill you in transition.

They'll kill you in spot up situations. Tatum's also like super active off the ball. He set one hundred and ten ball screens this year in large part because he's They would use that to manufacture dribil penetration with the guards, right, So they'd have it Derek White or Marcus Smart have the ball and Tatum set a ball screen and slip it and he would just catch the ball at the foul line and it would start a four on three and he would just make the passes out of that

because he's such a good passer. That was something they used a lot. He was a very good cutter this season. Tatum made fifty one shots running off of screens this year, which was a point per possession. Boston runs a ton of sets where like it's five out spacing right, so you always have two guys in the corner, two guys

on the wing, and a guy on the top. And Boston will run a lot of these like actions for Tatum, where like Tatum will be the ball will be like on the left wing and Tatum will either be at on the top with a guy on the wing, or Tatum will be on the wing with a guy at the top, and they'll just have that guy at the top screen for Tatum, and he'll come over the top and Marcus Muddle just hit him on the move and it'll be like Horford setting the screen and Tatum we'll

just attack off the catch, or if the guy goes way under the screen, he'll just catch and shoot. And then they'll do the same thing as a flare. So he'll be at the top and Horford were flare screen for him, and Tatum will just kind of pop over to the wing and there'll be like a quick swing pass for either a quick three or quick drive to close out type of situation. But Tatum was really good in those situations. Like I said, made fifty one shots

this year point per possession. But the reality is is while Tatum and Brown are both awesome in those situations. They're both below average and live drouble situations against the set defense, pick and rolls, ISOs when all ten eyes are staring at them in the half court. Both of them are a big level below where their peers are, and I think that's a big part of why their offense looks so clunky at times, especially in big moments,

especially in the playoffs. The Celtics lost six games in this year's playoff runt involving clutch situations, so when the score was within five with five minutes remaining. Again, no team in the end this year in the postseason lost more than four and the Celtics in clutch situations, and the Celtics lost six in A big part of that was their offense. They had an offensive rating of just

ninety four in those six losses. That's thirty minutes of clutch basketball in total, and they just could never get their offense going in those situations, in large part because their two best shot creators are not great at that specifically, and that's just something that's going to continue to be a problem until they improve. But I do believe they will improve. We'll get to that a little bit later.

A couple of specific issues I've noticed with Jason Tatum's approach offensively that I think lead to some of his half court issues. First of all, in an effort to become more efficient overall, Jason Tatum is basically cut most of the variety out of his game. Used to have a ton it used to be a very high volume post player. Used to take a lot of mid range jump shots. And you know, and I understand from an analytics perspective, cutting back on mid rain shooting a certain amount,

but he's cut way back on it. Now seventy percent of his pull up jumpers are threes, and he's not actually making him at a percentage that's conducive to that

particular shot profile. I a lot of you guys probably have seen me, like take screenshots of Tatum shot charts and like like, like the Celtics will lose a game, it'll be clunky offensively, tATu will struggle, and then you'll look at the shot chart and like it's a bunch of x's and o's at the above the break, like at the top of the key, and a little bit on the wing, and then a bunch of shots at the rim and there will be nothing anywhere else on

the shot chart. And that's it's because he has cut out the post ups, like he's been steadily cutting back on post ups. Twenty twenty one he ran one hundred and seventy two. Twenty twenty two, he ran one hundred and sixty five. This year one hundred and thirty five. So, for whatever reason, he's steadily removing that from his game, which is bizarre because it's been consistently his most effective

play type. He was by far more efficient in post up situations this year than he wasn't pick and roll in ISO, and he's doing it less than he has since he was basically a kid. So it's confusing to me.

He's removed the variety and he's made himself predictable. And so that's when you hear guys like Caleb Martin and other guy's on the heat and other guys around the league be like, we're getting up into Jason Tatum, like ball pressuring him, forcing him to his left, because when he goes left, he's about, you know, much more likely to take a pull up jump shot than he is when he goes right. When he goes right, he's far more likely to go all the way to the rim.

When he goes left, he's far more likely to take a pull up jump shot. He probably doesn't want to take a pull up two. So like we could probably funnel him sideways instead of towards the rim, and then you're just baiting him into one of those really really tough pull up threes that he's been missing for the most part in recent seasons. Right, So I think I think that's a big thing for him to work on in the future, is just like really simplifying his approach

offensively and using his physical advantages. It makes a lot of sense for guys like Damian Lillard and Steph Curry to take a ton of pull up threes because that's their ultimate elite, top tier skill, that's the thing that separates them from all their peers, and they don't have the amazing physical tools to bully their way to spots

closer to the rim and get higher percentage shots. You're Jason Tatum, You're six foot nine, you're built like a truck, and you've got a really good short, short to mid range jump shot. Use that clear the side. More work mismatches, work the posts, more add true variety to the way that you're attacking these defenses. Don't try to be Dame and Steph. That's a waste of your individual skill sets. So those are the things that I'd like to see Jason Tatum work on as he heads into his future.

So just kind of in summary, I dropped Tatum below a D and embid for one main reason. Tatum doesn't really have that elite top end skill that he can dependably rely on, right, Like Anthony Davis has his defensive superpower that literally dominates the focus of every playoff series that he's in. Joel Embiid, you throw him the ball at the foul liner on the post, he's like well over a point per possession, like almost a point in a quarter per possession. So he's one of the very

best individual shot creators in the league. Right. Even the diminished version of Embiid in this year's postseason run when he was injured was still well over a point per possession in those situations. Jason Tatum's really good at a lot of things, but he doesn't have that superpowered He's a good playmaker, but he's not a great one. He's pretty inefficient as a pull up jump shooter. He's pretty

inefficient as a shot maker. In general, he's well below his peers and pick and roll and in ISO situations. He's a good post up player, but he doesn't do it enough. He used to be one of the best defenders in the league, but just like the rest of his team, he kind of let go of the rope on that side of the floor and the whole team declined. I remember those six clutch losses I was talking about earlier, and the offense was a huge problem there, but the

defense was worse in those six clutch losses. In the postseason, the Celtics notched a defensive rating of one hundred and forty five. Like, you're obviously the offense is clunky and they need to figure that out, but like, that's not the same Celtics team that was winning in the playoffs last year. One hundred and forty five defensive rating from a team that allegedly as a defensive identity or at least used to that to me was a big problem

as well. And I think I think Tatum and Brown in particular, were the two guys that really relaxed on that side of the floor this year. So as I

look at again, it's a very small gap. And I want to acknowledge Tatum's dependability, in his availability, in his productivity while he's on the floor, but he's just not truly, unbelievably elite at any one thing on the basketball court, and that I think hurts him in some of the later rounds of the playoffs when he runs into some of these guys that have that level of ability at

the very very top end. And again, I want to be clear, I know that he beat Embiid this year, and I thought he had a pretty big moment at Embiid's expense, particularly in Game seven, just cooking him on switches on the perimeter. But again, the Celtics have a significantly more talented roster. They were heavy, heavy favorites to win that series. Angeel Embiid was playing injured, which we're going to factor in when we get to him. And I struggled with Embiid a lot in where to put

him on this list as well. But when I really zoomed out and looked at it in a situation where these were all very small gaps, I think that Embiid and Anthony Davis's top end in the situations when they are healthy at the right time of year, actually gives them a much better chance to lead a team to a championship than Jason Tatum does at this point. But for the record, he is twenty five years old and he is improving. He just had one of his very

best offensive half court creation postseasons in his career. Even with all the issues that the Celtics had, it was a better one relative to Tatum's past. I thought he showed a lot of growth in the second half of that Heat series, started to kind of demonstrate some of that surgical offensive approach there in games five and six, and it was kind of a bummer because he got hurt in Game seven and that prevented him from having an opportunity to close the deal Missoula give him some

better spacing. In general, I thought he showed some growth, but he's got a ways to go, and I still continue to maintain that for the Celtics, their best pathway forward is just betting on Tatum and Brown improving as

the years go by. Again, when Tatum is twenty eight, if he adds the efficiency and the on ball stuff to go with everything that he does as a guy, that can extend advantages and finish plays when other guys get him situations where he has an advantage, and if he regains his defensive identity that he had from the twenty twenty two postseason, that's where he comes a candidate

to be potentially the best player in the world. And I do think that that's on the table for Tatum in the future, but right now, at age twenty five, which is still impressive, I have him as the seventh best player in the world. All right, guys, that's all I have for today. I'll see you guys tomorrow for number six and we'll head it into the weekend. We'll go through five through one tomorrow. The volume