Hoops Tonight - Thunder/Nuggets Series Preview + Prediction

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I think they have a I think they match up in a very interesting way with Minnesota, and I think that would be a very interesting second round series. And as you start to go through some of the matchups in the second round with New York and Boston, Oklahoma City and Denver, who we're going to talk about today, Oklahoma City is a minus seven hundred favorite in that series.

Cleveland is a substantial favorite over Indiana. I think that Minnesota versus Golden State is what the basketball world needs for an interesting second round series. I think Houston would get demolished if they ran into Minnesota in the next round. But we have an awesome night of games tonight. Remember our schedule tonight looks a little bit different because we have I'm working with Colin right after the final buzzer

of the Warriors Rockets game. Then we're going to go live on YouTube after I get done with Colin, and then we're also going to go on playback after that to take questions and get interactive with the audience. So that's a schedule for tonight. In this episode, this morning series preview for Denver versus Oklahoma City, we're going to get into that series from every single angle, and then we'll get out of here and go enjoy those games. You guys know the job before we get started. Subscribe

to Hoops and YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at Underscore json LTC. You guys don't miss show announcements. Don't forget about a podcast few wherever we get your podcast.

Each team won on each other's floor once. The stars for both teams looked great at different points and struggle at different points. So, for instance, in the first Denver win back in November, the Nuggets did an awesome job defending Shae Gilds of Alexander. They had him out of sorts for most of the second half. Christian Brown did a great job. They forced him into a bunch of turnovers,

Denver methodically walked OKC down. That was a game where Shay struggled right in the other win for Oklahoma City, or the other game in back in November. Then Oklahoma City won, Chet kicked Jokic's ass, and the Thunder defense shut down shut down the Denver offense, and they ended up winning that game in convincing fashion. But both of those games were very early in the season. They met

twice later in the season. The first game was close until the fourth quarter and then the Thunder blitzed them with their bench group. Ironically, a lot of really high level play from Keson Wallace and Alex Cruso during that stretch. But then they played again a couple nights later, and that game was close until the second half when the Nuggets successfully deployed a very gimmicky zone defense where they double team Shay crossing half court.

the rebounding battle. They grabbed fifty two point two percent of available rebounds thirty two point two percent of their own misses. That's obviously going to be a big factor in this series odds. Again, all of our odds are provided by DraftKings. Oklahoma City's minus seven hundred to win

this series. That's a substantial favorite. Boston, by the way, for comparison, is minus eight hundred to beat the Knicks, so they view the nuggets chances to beat Oklahoma City as roughly the same as New York's chances to beat Boston. I disagree with that. I think that there's good value in the betting market for Denver here. Denver at plus five hundred as the underdog.

those sorts of issues. So I don't agree with those odds being as similar as they are. I would have put Oklahoma City in more of that like minus three hundred minus three point fifty kind of range. So I do think there's some interesting betting value on Denver in this series. Oklahoma City on offense, so the matchups are

going to look like this. We'll see Christian Brown on Shae for most of the series, Aaron Gordon on Jdubb, although I think they might consider mixing that up if they start getting killed on the back line and they might have to consider putting, you know, putting you know, either an extra guard on the floor like Russell Westbrook and taking Michael Porter Junior off and having to have him guard Ja Dubb. Just I wouldn't be surprised if they got a little gimmicky to try to keep Aaron

Gordon closer to the basket. But I do think Aaron Gordon will start the series on j DUB, Jamal Moorey Murray will start on Lou Dort, although we'll also probably see Jamal Murray spend some time on Chet Holmgren. Michael Porter Junior will start on Chet Holmgren, and Nicole Jokich will start on Isaiah Hartenstein. Defending shake Yildes was Alexander.

It's gonna be a steady diet of Christian Brown. We're gonna see a mix of at the level coverages, deeper drop coverages in his own looks, and again, all that means is in the ball screen. Christian Brown's constantly going to be chasing Shaye over the top, but we'll see Jokic come up all the way to the level of the screen sometimes and then we'll see him sitting a little bit further back, meeting Shay closer to like the elbow,

like around the foul line area. Shaye did kind of have Christian Brown figured out in their last two games. He started beating him just one on one to the basket. He was getting more separation. But Brown did have success against Shaye earlier in the season. He was able to apply some good ball pressure and back pressure that that cast some issues for Shaye. So that's gonna be a big swing factor in the series. Just how good of a job can Christian Brown do on Shae? How physical

is he allowed to be? How much success can he have using his size and strength on ball against Shae.

that high did get beat pretty badly by Shaye. And in those situations, their defense completely fell apart and they started giving up layups. But Jokic did lock some quality

possessions on tape. He was able to successfully protect the rim against Shae in a deeper drop, not a full deep drop where he's like on his heels all the way back at the rim, but rather meeting Shae closer to like the foul line area, where he's kind of like in a stance that's kind of funneling him towards the side of the rim that they're already on, like

towards the sideline, so to speak. And in that situation, he can actually generate some contact with Shae before he gets to the rim, which can prevent Shae from really getting explosive downhill. And he actually had some really nice rim protection possessions against Shae in that kind of like middle drop where he's meeting him more in the middle.

as well. It's been a mixed with Jalen Williams in ball screens against Denver this year like, there are possessions where he does a nice job of baiting Jokic to step out, and he can create really easy lobs for Isaiah Hartenstein. But he was also the guy who was quick to settle for some tough contested mid range jump shots early in the clock. One of the things I noticed on film was that OKC got really good looks for j Dub and for Isaiah Hartenstein out of cleared

side pick and roll. Denver likes to load up the paint, so if you run pick and Roll in a way that the roleman is rolling towards the middle of the floor,

Denver can properly congest things around there. But when they had Jadub like coming out of the corner with Hartenstein screening and Hartenstein popping or rolling through to like the short corner on the baseline side, when that entire side is unoccupied so that there's no help defender, they were able to get lobs and easy opportunities for Hartenstein rolling because Denver couldn't properly load up on the rollman when they actually cleared the side. I think that's an action

that will see quite a bit. Doesn't even have to necessarily be a ball screen. It can just literally be j Dub in the corner. Isaah Hartenstein gets a pass out towards the top of the key the thunder space on the weak side, and then Hartenstein just dribbles into a dribble handoff with Jay Dubb coming out of that right corner, and then just rolls hard to the rim.

They actually did get quite a bit of vertical spacing opportunity from Isaiah Hartenstein in general in this matchup, in particular, in large part because Aaron Gordon is pulled away from the rim to guard j Dub in so many of these situations, I think we'll see a lot of screening action for Chet. Chet didn't just say see Michael Porter Jr.

Like I talked about earlier. He saw a good amount of Jamal Murray in this in this series, and both of those guys can be really sloppy or lazy navigating screens, sometimes communicating through switches. Chet got a lot of advantage opportunities slipping out of those screens, and so I look for Oklahoma City to use Chet as a way to attack Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior. Throughout the series.

They'll run like wide pinned downs too, so like they'll have like they'll they'll literally just put you know, Chet in the right corner and they'll have Dorts screen down for him so that they have Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior defending an off ball action And all it takes is one of those guys to be lazy and there's a or to botch of communication and they can get an advantage for Chet there. And the biggest thing

for Chet's just gonna be is three point shooting. If Denver gets to the point where they feel like they can ignore him off ball, that could be a big swing in this series. And that's gonna be a big swing for a bunch of these guys. Dort Caruso is a big one. Like I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Denver do some JANKI stuff like just putting Jokic on Alex Caruso and having him sit in the paint like a lot of those guys are gonna have to

hit shots. Hiding Yokic on a non shooter is gonna be one of the janky things that we see Denver try. I think we're gonna see a lot of that kind of like janky experimental stuff like I think we'll see zone. We'll see traditional zone, but I think we'll also see that double teaming zone that we saw in their fourth game this year. And again, all it was was they basically just treated it as a two to three where

Hart and Seign would be back in the paint. They'd have two guys on the wings and the two guys at the top of the zone as soon as Shae crossed half court, which is double team in and then those guys, the three guys that were on the back line, they would come up to like bait them as decision makers, but they were willing to concede pretty much any jump shot above the break or in that like elbow area, and Okay sees offense really fell apart in that stretch.

It's just kind of a weird situation to get your shots out of or like you're taking a wide open above the break three but there's players behind you on the play like it just kind of feels weird and it can get guys out of rhythm. I think we'll see some of that as well. I mentioned hiding Yokic on a non shooter processing is gonna be big, Like Denver knows they haven't experience an IQ advantage in this series, and I expect them to try to exploit that through

jankie schemes. But this is a smarter Oklahoma City team than they were last year. I was really impressed in

general with how they handled Memphis. Memphis is very similarly to Denver, a team that likes to load up the strong side and force you to beat them with the pass, and there were several There were several examples in this in that first round series and over the course of the season where I've seen Oklahoma City show a lot of growth processing in the middle of the floor, meaning like when Shay hits the role man, when a guy cuts in or flashes into the middle of the lane

out of a Shay double team, like those guys are just quickly reading the floor and making the appropriate kickout passes, hitting cutters, hitting three point shooters on the weak side.

If Aaron Gordon has some success posting up on Chet just using his size and strength, we'll see Aaron Gordon attacking. You know, perceived mismatches in the post is a big part of what Denver will look to do in the playoffs. Yo Kitchen the Post is going to be a really interesting part of this series. This will be a series where I think we see Yo Kitchen the Post more than usual. Again, we talked about it in the Clipper series.

It's a different type of matchup with Zoo, but this is going to be a series where I think we see a ton of Jokis post ups. I was digging through the film today. Jokic including passes, posted up sixty two times versus Oklahoma City in four games. That's over fifteen possessions per game. He averaged about ten post ups per game in the regular season, so he posts up about fifty percent more often in this matchup than he

does in on average throughout the league. He's gonna be much more comfortable versus Hartenstein and Chet than he was against Zoo. And it really is going to come down to double teams. The Thunder are going to double team, and then it's going to be a contest between can ok See be physical and rotate and close those windows quickly and rush Denver's role players into making mistakes or missing shots, or is Denver gonna quickly process and bounce the ball around and get great looks out of it.

And for the record, I think we're gonna see a bunch of both in this series. One of the I'm you know, we'll talk about it when I get to my pick, but I'm expecting a longer series, and I think this is gonna oscily back and forth between stretches where Denver's really scoring the ball well and they look in control, and then stretches where Okac is successfully rushing them into mistakes, and then Oklahoma City starts to take control.

But starting out of those Denver double teams, that's going to be that battle of like quick processing and play finishing versus physicality and speed in rotation, and just which one of those dynamics ends up controlling getting lou Dort off of Jamal Murray's gonna be big. Denver is an excellent screening team and that's gonna be key in this series.

When if Jokic and Christian Brown and other guards can set good hard screens, they get lou Dort separated off of Jamal Murray, he's gonna be comfortable and he's gonna make a lot of good stuff happen. But if Okac can stay attached to Jamal, they can speed him up, they can cause him to lose balance on his base and he can start to misshots and turn the ball over. And there were stretches in the series in the season series where Murray looks comfortable, and then there were stretches

where he looked really uncomfortable. And again, it's going to swing on that specific dynamic off ball attentiveness. Okay, he's gonna be big.

City's attention to detail in this series. The Thunder's best path to taking care of business in this matchup is that pressure and speed dynamic, picking up Jamal Murray full court, wearing him out over the course of the series, speeding up Denver's role players, playing Michael Porter Junior into a bad offensive series, staying disciplined with Russell Westbrook. You're athletic

enough to play Russ into a bad series. Russ isn't going to have the same kinds of advantages in this series athletically that he's had in many situations this year for Denver. Right, So, there's only so much you can do to speed up Yokich. But the other guys are very susceptible to okay See's speed and physicality on the perimeter, and that's where Oklahoma City needs to really leverage that that strength. Lastly, for Oklahoma City, got I work as

a team to keep Denver off the glass. Denver rebounded almost a third of their own misses in this matchup in the regular season. If they get killed there, that could be something that turns into an important margin for Denver. I'm picking okay See in seven. I think this series will oscillate back and forth on the engine that is Denver's offense. Denver's offense is more than good enough to

beat elite defense. The Clippers or the third best defense in the league this season, and Denver eviscerated them on that end of the floor in the wins in the series. With the ookch on the floor, they had a one to twenty one offensive rating against the top three defense in the NBA. I think there will be stretches, especially in Denver, where the Nuggets look in control because they're

just scoring the ball and controlling flow. But I also think we'll see extended stretches of the series where Oklahoma City's Denver speeds up. Denver causes them issues on offense with their physicality and their ball pressure, then Okay see starts playing with pace, and then they're in control. Oklahoma City does have more talented basketball players. They have a better bench, they have real rim protection, they have better point of attack defenders, they have more reliable offense down

the roster. Like this, this team has a lot of talent. Their defense has a level of consistency to it that will keep them in every game. There's gonna be a lot of half court action in this series, where we're watching guys like Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior fighting for their lives trying to guard guys like Jadab and Cheed Holmgren. They're going to have a hard time in that matchup. Overall, I think Oklahoma City is smart enough to handle this. I think they're gonna process very well

in this series. I think it's gonna be very fun. I think it's gonna be back and forth, but I think Oklahoma City will end up closing this out in seven games. The pathway for Denver, and again, I do think this is a real pathway. I would not be I would be a little surprised if Denver won the series. I would not be stunned or shocked. Jokic needs to assert himself as the best player in the series early and often. The Nuggets offense needs to operate at peak

efficiency for like five or six the seven games. The pressure of the moment and the experience advantage needs to lead to Denver being more comfortable than their Okace counterparts. Like if Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray just straight up out play JDub and Chad, that's a big swing in Denver's favor. Denver would have to take care of the ball and keep okay see out of transition. They've generally done a good job in that matchup this season. There

is a pathway, but everything needs to go right. It's gonna be a really fun series. I'm excited. We're gonna obviously be breaking down all the games after each night live on YouTube. That's all I have for this morning.

be going live on YouTube. We'll do a reaction to today's games, and then we will also head over to Playback after that to do some film and to talk through talk through you guys's questions and comments. And stuff along those lines. So lots of basketball today, lots of content today, looking forward to it.