Hoops Tonight - Steph Curry injury reaction: How will Warriors survive without star point guard + Power Rankings

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in West Virginia. YEA, all right, welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by Fan Duel here at the volume. Happy Thursday, everybody. We've almost made it to the end of the week and we are live on AMP. For those of you guys who are watching on YouTube or on the podcast feeds, don't forget that AMP is the very first place that you guys can get these breakdowns. Today, we're just gonna

keep it really simple. We were gonna do our power rankings today, but we're gonna bump that to Friday, So keep an eye on the feeds tomorrow for our power rankings Today, we're just gonna be reacting to the news that Steph Curry it's very likely to miss about a month with a laboral injury in his left shoulder, obviously very concerning for the Golden State Warriors. Before we get started, though, I'm excited to tell you guys about our new sponsor,

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between ten and fifteen games, is my guest. The initial report was a couple of weeks, but then Shams Sharania from the Athletic just put out a report shortly about ten fifteen minutes ago saying that in all likelihood he's probably going to be out the better part of a month. Um. So what I'd like to do is, I'd like to look at this from the glass half empty approach first, and then we'll come at it from a more positive angle.

Here in a couple of minutes, here's the reality. The Warriors have played nine hundred and seventy two possessions without Steph Curry this year, and they've been outscored by ten points per possession, a ten points per one possessions in those minutes. It's been bad. In fact, in totality this year, they are plus one on the scoreboard when Steph is on the floor and minus one seven when he's off.

If you guys remember when we did our m VP rankings a couple of weeks ago or a quarter season awards, which I believe, Yeah, I think it was one or two weeks ago. UM, I talked about how with Steph in particular, the on off numbers were so jarring. They're like almost twenty points better per an under possessions when he's on versus when he's off. That if they could just put together some wins and get towards the top

of the standings. He's kind of like a shoe in for m v P. Because all the other top guys in the league, they've you know, been better with them on the floor versus off, but not nearly as valuable as Steff has been to the Warriors. Put it simply, the Warriors have been a travesty this year when step is off the floor, So what does that mean? That means it's gonna be extremely difficult for them to win

games over this stretch. And the unfortunate part is the Warriors didn't bring a ton of urgency to start this season. They were already in the ten seed before this news came out today. And let's put it, let's let's just let's just put it real simply. If the Warriors lose ground to the tune of three games in the standings over the course of this month, they will drop and

be ahead of just Houston and San Antonio. If they dropped five games on the field over this month, which is unlikely but certainly on the on the table as a possibility, they'll drop to dead last in the conference, even behind San Antonio. There are only four and a half games up on San Antonio right now. So one of the problems with their acadays ago approach to start the season is they didn't really buy themselves any margin

for error. And so here we are. Steph gets hurt and he's gonna be out at least a few weeks, potentially a month, and that could be a problem. What that means is when he comes back of you know, right around that game mark of the season, he's gonna have to go on one hell of a run at the end of the season just to avoid missing the play altogether, let alone hopefully getting out of the plane

and avoiding that specific situation. We talked a lot about this when we were talking about the Warriors in general,

um after one of their losses earlier this week. You know, it's just a lot to ask a team that has a severe depth problem to go from, you know, potentially having home court advantage and an easier first round match up, a chance to kind of gain momentum the way they did last year, or Steph was out of the lineup and they got to play the Nuggets with just Yokich and Steph was coming off the bench, they bought themselves enough margin for error that they were able to weather

that because they started the year what did they start fifteen and one or something like that to start the season last year or fourteen and one, that's that's off the table. Now. Now that margin for air is not there, and if things go poorly over this next month, they will be in a pretty deep hole. So that that's kind of like the the my initial kind of read on this situation from just acknowledging the realities you're in.

You're already a tense seed. Steph is out a month and this season you've gotten killed when he's off the floor. But obviously the Warriors are going to make every attempt to try to float the ship over the course of this next month and keep themselves alive as they should. They're starting lineup is still the very best line up in basketball this year, and they have good reason to have faith there and to keep their faith in that grouping. So let's look at thee the glass half full approach.

I was coaching the Warriors, and I was trying to talk to my guys in a way that kept their belief and help them realize that they still have a chance I'd start here. First of all, there's some winning, winnable games on the schedule going from today, the fifteenth of December to the fifteenth of January. They play the New York Knicks, the Charlotte Hornets, the Detroit Pistons, the Orlando Magic, the San Antonio Spurs, and Chicago Bulls. Those

are all very winnable games without Steph Curry. If you win, let's say you win four out of those six, that can go a long way towards mitigating some of the damage, because, again, if you're gaining ground on the field, you know, these other teams that are in the bottom half of the conference, when we're talking about the Lakers, you know, we're talking about the Minnesota Timberwolves and some of these other teams

that have been struggling. You know they're likely going to drop about half their games over this stretch as well. So if you can win four or five of these games, that could be enough to keep you in a situation where this damage is very little at that point. But the problem is, as we saw against Indiana last night, when Steph goes out, it's not a guarantee that they'll win, even against the team that is not overly talented, so they need to find some lineup groupings that work well

without Steph. So, first of all, we don't really know how the starters will look this year. The um the starters without Steph. So if you just put in Jordan Pool for Steph Curry, for instance, which is likely what their starting lineup will be, they've only played one possession this year, so we don't really know what that grouping is going to look like this year. But there are some lineups that have played well without step this year

in decent volume. For instance, the most used non Steph line up this year, according to Cleaning the Glass is Jordan Pool with Dante DiVincenzo, Andrew Wiggins, Anthony Lamb and Draymond Green. That grouping has played fifty nine possessions and they have a plus seven net rating, which is plus

seven per one possessions. That's pretty damn good. The other thing we learned, if you guys remember to start the season when they were really, you know, doing these line change type of things, when they were swapping that starting group out and just bringing on the bench, they were struggling. But then they started to stagger a little bit, right and when they started to stagger. What did we learn.

We learned that when they kept Draymond Green alongside Jordan's Pool, not only did it raise their defensive floor high enough to give them a chance to hang in those minutes, but it also kind of rained in some of Jordan's Pool's recklessness and some of his decision making. Just having a veteran on the floor that's a good decision maker. That just kind of reins him in a little bit.

And those groupings have played really well. When Jordan's Pool and Draymond Green are on the floor this year without Steph Curry, they are plus seven points per one possessions in a decent sample size two hundred possessions. That's really good. So there is enough there to kind of just pile together some lineups that can work. And again, it's not about going undefeated over this stretcher going ten and five. You all know that that's not realistic. The hell, that's

barely been realistic with the team being healthy. But there is a pathway towards just manufacturing some wins. You gotta beat the Hornets, you gotta beat the Pistons, you gotta beat the Magic, you gotta beat the Spurs. And if you're gonna win those games, you've got to find some

groupings that work. Now, if we look at what Steph brings to the Warriors, obviously Steph has turned himself into a positive defensive player at this phase in his career, but that's not really where it's going to be in effect. The biggest effect is offensive creation. I think Steph Curry is the best offensive player potentially of all time when you really factor in what he does on the ball and what he does off the ball to create high

quality shots for his teammates. The only reason he's not the goat is he doesn't impact games defensively the way that Michael Jordan did or Lebron James Datter Kobe Bryant did right, but he offensively is every bit as good as those guys are, if not even better. And so that's the part that you've got to find a place to to replace. So what that means is Jordan's Pool and Clay Thompson are going to have to step up and play really high level basketball. The other guy would

really look at here is Andrew Wiggins. Andrew Wiggins went from what he was in Minnesota, which was a primary shot creator into a basically a three and D guy right for the Golden State Warriors this year and extremely low volume. I think he's run around twenty five possessions in each of these. He's one point per possession in isso, which is above average, and one point zero four points per post up both of those including passage including passes,

that's above average. So Andrew Wiggins has some experience as a primary shock creator that you can lean on for heavier usage, and so that guy in particular, you gotta lean on more. And then you just need Jordan's Pool and Clay Thompson to be more consistent. Most importantly, no matter what the urgency on the defensive end of the floor, which has not been there for the Warriors this year consistently,

especially when they get away from home. That urgency on the defensive end of the floor has to be there every single night. And so that's gonna be the challenge for them, especially since, like you know, they're talented enough that if you go into Charlotte, or you play Charlotte, you play the Pistons, you play the Magic, you play the Spurs, you will beat those teams if you defend as well as you are capable of because those teams are young, and those teams are sloppy, they let go

with a rope. If you bring that defensive effort, you can beat them. So that's the end of the floor that I'd watched really really closely, and I'm really curious to see how well that floats. There's two other angles real quickly. I want to look at this here. I talked about this when we were talking about Golden States margin for air earlier this week, but it might be even more likely that the Warriors consider being more aggressive

in the trade market. Obviously. I think today is actually the official date, December fift where all of the contracts signed this summer are eligible for trades. You know, Moses Moody, ironically, coming into the season, seemed like the young guy they'd be able to rely on the most hasn't really panned out. James Wisen obviously is in the G League bouncing back

and forth. So at a certain point you might have to look at moving those two guys as your best opportunity to bring back a player that gives you a better chance of flow outing over the course of the next month, And you know, it might be the best thing that could happen to them because they've been really hesitant to make that particular move obviously in the interest of keeping this two timelines approach, and that might end

up costing them in the playoffs anyway. So hopefully for the Warrior's sake, this ends up being the thing that kind of breeds some urgency there. But the one last thing I wanted to look at here from the standpoint of keeping the glass half full, is the West is

wide open. When you're looking at the teams at the top, you're looking at the New Orleans Pelicans who are very young, an injury prone, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson injury prone, and generally speaking, in NBA history, you don't see young teams like that end up going on long playoff runts. They just don't understand how to win in that chess match environment for two months. It usually ends up being

the the the veteran teams that do so. So I'm not overly concerned about them, particularly if I if I'm a Warrior's fan, not over the concern about them. Denver is down to defense. They don't play any damn defense, So Denver is not gonna be something you're overly concerned about Phoenix is always like one or two bad games away from letting go of the rope. But the Clippers Kawhi Leonard, his health is a concern, Paul George, his

health is a concern. They're they're starting to look a little old and slow on the wing, although they've been playing better basketball as of late. There is no world beating team in the Western Conference. This is what is driving most of the Lakers optimism this year is the fact that, like, you just don't have to be that good necessarily to win this conference. So it's not ideal.

You obviously don't want to have to play in a playing game or go on the road in the first round to a top seed, to then have to play one of the middle season in the conference, to then have to play a top seed before you inevitably have to play the Bucks are the Celtics coming out of the East. But if there was one year to do it, it would be this year. So it's unfortunate this kind of thing happens. But at the end of the day,

the Warriors have two choices. You can you know, punt, which they're obviously not going to do, or you can try to find some lineup groupings that work. Expect Jordan Pool and Clay Thompson to play better, lean a little bit more, and Andrew Wiggins and defend, defend, defend, defend,

give yourself a chance. This is kind of fortunate in the stance that it happened during a stretch of their schedule where they've got some winnable games and if they go, you know, they win five or six games over the course of this month, they could be coming back here right around the tenth or eleventh seed. Anyway, we're gonna be doing our power rankings today ranking the top ten

teams in the league. Just you guys know, from a statistics standpoint, all these stats are as of when I've recorded this on Wednesday, so Wednesday nights games have not been factored in. You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe to the Volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt so you guys don't miss any

show announcements or video breakdowns that we do. And then, last but not least, for whatever reason, you guys miss one of these videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to finish, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight, All right, let's talk some basketball. So number ten the Golden State Warriors. Yes, they're terrible on the road, two and twelve on the road, but they're just as good at home twelve and two

at home. And it appears to mostly be associated with efforts. So, for instance, they're twenty nine and defensive rating on the road. They are third in defensive rating at home. That's pretty big difference there, twenty nine and defensive rebound percenter excuse me, an overall rebound percentage on the road, but they are fifteen and in rebounding percentage at home, so they're competing a lot better on the glass at home. And then they're also just really sloppy with the basketball there in

turnover percentage on the road. So I think it's fixable. I think it's effort related kind of championship malay stuff. They don't deserve to be anywhere near the top of this list, obviously, but they're still the defending champs and they're still the team that I am picking to win the championship, and they demonstrated that with that resounding win over the Boston Celtics on Saturday night. All right, number nine,

the Philadelphia seventies six or so. They're fifteen and twelve, but they are ten and five since November twelve, which is the fourth best record in the league over that span. They're also fourth in defense over that span. They are seven and six this season against teams that are five hundred or better. Anytime you're over five hundred in that category, at least think it's worth keeping an eye on. Preferably if your contender, you hope to win about two thirds

of those games. But seven and six is pretty solid. They do play down to their competition a lot, though they've lost six times this year to teams that are below five hundred. Joel Ebad has been arguably the best player in the league over the last ten games. He's averaging thirty seven in that span, and the entires Maxi should be coming back. James Harden came back a couple of weeks ago. He's starting to get his legs back

underneath him. He's had a couple of big games. He had one and fifteen assists against the Kings the other night. Um So, I think with Tyrese Maxi coming back, and with them having their defense in order, they've also gotten a lot better in transition defense, which has been a weakness of there's Joel Embiat playing like the best player in the world. I think they're gonna go on a big run in January. Alright. Number eight the Los Angeles Clippers,

So there's sixteen and thirteen. They did start two and four, but they're fourteen and nine in their last twenty three games. They're actually sitting pretty damn well if you really factor in the bad luck they've had with keeping Kawhi Leonard and Paul George actually available. And on the court, they're winning with their defense, which again, as I always say, is going to keep you in games and give you a chance to win more nights than not. Their fifth

in defensive rating on the season. Their offense has been terrible all year there and offensive rating, but so much of that has to do with the fact that they haven't had their stars available. It talked about this a lot over the course of the last week. Having superstar production to rescue possessions, attack specific mismatches, and to generate advantages that your role players can capitalize on. That really is the difference between bad offenses and good offenses. This

is such a good example of this. So they're twenty eight as a team in offensive rating this year. But when Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are on the floor together, there's score were a hundred and eighteen points per one hundred possessions, which is really really good. They're actually plus eighteen net per one hundred possessions when the two of them are on the floor, excellent on both ends, and six and two overall in games when Kawhile Leonard and

Paul George both play. So it's kind of the opposite of the Lakers situation. The depth has kept them afloat in the standings while they've had health issues, and then Kawhile Leonard and Paul George is what allows them to capture their ceiling, whereas for the Lakers, their lack of depth is making it so that even though Lebron James and Anthony Davis are available, they haven't been able to win nearly enough games even to stay afloat in the standings.

And then the Clippers were kind of waiting on their signature win and they got it against Boston on Monday night. Paul George and Kawhile Lenard both kind of resoundingly outplay Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown got a huge win. One by twenty kind of just adds some legitimacy to their recent success in their schedule. Number seven the Denver Nuggets. So they're sixteen and ten, they're second in offense for the season, but they keep falling further and further behind

things on defense. They're not in defensive rating, just like we were talking about with the Sacramento Kings Awhile Back. If you don't defend, you're gonna struggle to be good teams, and that's exactly what we're seeing with the Nuggets. They are seven and eight against teams that are five hundred are better, and they are nine in two against teams that are below five hundred. So they're gonna have to

figure out some things on defense. The big silver lining and the thing that should have Nuggets fans really excited right now, is that Jamal Murray looks like he's back. He had that massive game winner I think he had like twenty two and hit like a nasty step back game winner against the Portland Trailblazers the other night, and then he followed that up with thirty points on nineteen shots against the Utah Jazz in a big win. Um He's averaging twenty two and five on six shooting in

his last seven games. So if Yo Kitchen Murray are back, that's when we can start to really get excited about the Denver Nuggets ceiling. But they are gonna have to figure out some things on the defensive end of the floor. Number six the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're eventeen and eleven, twelfth in offense for the season, but second defense and creeping ever so closely towards the Bucks for that top spot in defense. They did have a bad loss in San

Antonio the other night, though. There's some interesting stuff going on with the Calves in their line up data, which is something that I've been on all season. Like, I really like all of these players in a vacuum, right, Like I like Donovan Mitchell, I like Darius Garland, I

like Evan Mobley, I like Jared Allen. But whenever you play two small guards together, you open yourself up to a lot of things that can hurt you in the defensive end of the floor and rebounding and contested rebounding situations. So when we look these numbers are according to cleaning the glass, which filters out garbage time. The Calves have a plus one point to net rating with both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland on the floor, which is not

very good. But then when you swap one of them out, so Garland is on and Mitchell is off, the air plus six point four which is really good. And then with Mitchell on and Garland off their plus nine point three, which is outstanding. So as you can see, they're doing really well with Donovan Mitchell and all their length and athleticism on defense. They're doing really well with Darius Garland in all their length and athleticism on defense. But when you put the two of them on the floor together,

they're struggling. And we've seen that specifically hurt them and crunch time situation, crunch time situations this year. It's just it's the problem with trying to build a roster around two small guards that don't defend. I've said this before, I'll say it again. I know Cleveland fans get upset when I do, but I would be blown up MASSI you Jerry's phone and begging him to do something along the lines of a Darius Garland for O Ganna Noby switch. I don't care what has to be thrown in there

to make it all work. I just think that gives you the best defense in the league with O Ganna Noby, who has been arguably the defensive player of the year. Without the Alan mobiley front court, O g and Noby has made a lot of improvements Offensively, They've got a lot of guys that are knocking down threes at a high rate. And then Donovan Mitchell is arguably the m v P of the league depending on who you ask.

I don't have him there, but he's in that conversation, So that would be a direction that I would go if I was the Calves. I don't think they're going to I think they're gonna play out the season, and I think they'll end up getting beat in the postseason by that specific matchup. Issue Number five the Brooklyn Nets. So they've won seventy of their game since November four, which ranked second in the league. They're seventeen and twelve overall,

which is the seventh best record in the league. Katie is having his best two way season since two thousand and seventeen playing like an m v P. And then Kyrie Irving is starting to kind of round into his vintage form. He had a really really impressive win a game the other night against the Washington Wizards on the road when he really dragged him back into that game in the second quarter when they got off to a sloppy start. Plus, most importantly, the role players are healthy now.

T J. Warrens back, he's playing well. You don't want Nobbies playing really well. You know, they've got a bunch of guys shooting from three Seth Curry has been incredible. Ben Simmons is now back into the lineup. They're starting to look very much like a championship contender. They just need a signature win. They had an opportunity against Boston a while back, didn't get the deal done there. They need to find that signature win that reminds them of

what they're capable of on the biggest stage. Number four Memphis Grizzlies. So they've won six in a row, eight out of nine. They have the best record in the league since November, which is what three weeks or so. Um their fourth and offense a second in defense over that span, and they're doing it all without Desmond Baine, and with John Morien going through his first real significant shooting slump UH of the season. He hasn't really been able to make jump shots or free throws for the

last three weeks or so. Um. There are seven. The way they're compensating for that is their seven Memphis Grizzlies right now. They are averaging double figures over this nine game span. And then Jaren Jackson Jr. Is just has just been unbelievable. He's giving Brook Lopez a run for his money. Is that best like rim protecting stretch five that we have in the league. He's making in this nine game span, he's making two threes per game at fort and he's blocking three point four shots per game,

which is just ridiculous. Um. And then John Moran, you know, we've talked a lot about his jump shot, which started this season really hot, s cooled off a little bit. Obviously, has some defensive limitations, but he's having a really nice playmaking season. He's averaging a career high eight assist per game. Memphis has scored two hundred and fifty points on two hundred and thirty four possessions. When John Moran has passed out of isolation or pick and roll, which is really

really good. He's another guy who's a bona fide m VP candidate at this point in the season. Alright. Number three the New Orleans Pelicans kind of similar to Memphis. They're playing really well despite having some bad injury luck. They have tons of depth on the wing and tons of ball handling, which are two of the most important things in the league right now, which is allowing them to manufacture wins. They are tied for first place in

the West with Memphis at eighteen and nine. They did get rolled in Utah the other night to stop a seven game winning streak, but they have the best record in basketball over the last month at twelve and three. They have the best defense in the league over that stress in. Zion has been really good on both ends of the floor during that stretch, which is interesting. Since November twelve, the pills are ten and two when Zion plays.

He's averaging twenty six points, eight rebounds, and five assists during that span on sixty seven percent shooting, and he's averaging two point two stocks per game that steals plus blocks. We're starting to make some more impact plays on the defensive end of the four. Herb Jones is back now,

Brandon Ingram should still be coming back soon enough. You know, if if in the event, I still think the Warriors are the best team in the West, and I put the Clippers at number two still because of what we've seen with their ceiling with Kawai and Paul George. But in the event that those two trick things off for one reason or another, the Pelicans right now are my pick for the team that would get out of the West if that were to happen. Number two the Milwaukee Bucks.

They're twenty and seven, first in defense, although like I said, Cleveland is kind of creeping up on them. Eighteenth and offense. But this is where it gets exciting when Chris Middleton. This is according to Cleaning the Glass, when Chris Middleton and Janis Antenna Kompo are on the floor together, the Bucks have an offensive rating of a hundred and nineteen,

which is great. So all the stuff that we've been talking about with offense, I thought Chris Middleton being out had a huge part, had to play a huge role into that, especially in the half court with him being back. Even though Chris hasn't even really gained his rhythm back. They're scoring at a really really effective rate when the two of those guys are on the floor, so their

offense should trend up quickly here in the coming weeks. UM. Obviously, Chris Middleton is still getting his rhythm back, UM, but his spot up shooting and playmaking in particular is going a long way to helping them on the offensive end of the floor. They had a really impressive win against Golden State on Tuesday night, sending a message that they still have that championship level ceiling the number one or they've been all season. The Boston Celtics still the best

record in the league at two and seven. A couple of disappointing losses to Golden State and the Clippers. Jason Tatum had a couple of rough games. You know, obviously it's on the road. Uh kind of fell back into some of their old tendencies over penetrating, driving into the teeth of the defense, attempting bad shots, over help defense instead of kicking to all of their great spot up players.

They lost their identity a little bit, but they ended the road trip on a high note, really impressive win against the Lakers on a night, when Lebron James and Anthony Davis were downright magnificent, um and and and kind of had a an opportunity to let go of the rope there, down thirteen with four minutes left, and instead they just grind it out a nice overtime win. Everything with Boston comes down to their ability to maintain their identity when the chips are down in high stakes environments.

Makes it hard to evaluate them during the regular season because they're so damn talented that they're kind of just gonna beat everyone's ass. Uh during the eight two game regular season. They need lots of reps and high stakes environments to continue to confront that ugly side of themselves and overcome it, which is something that they've struggled with

even into this season. So it's hard to really tell what their ultimate ceiling is until we see them on that big stage again with an opportunity to kind of erase that memory. Um. But for right now, I think they're clearly the best team in this regular season to this point. All right, guys, that is all I have for today. Saturday morning, We'll be coming back with breakdowns of a bunch of the games from Friday night. As always, I sincerely appreciate your guys support and I will see

you next time. The volume