Hoops Tonight - Steph Curry & Klay Thompson shine in Warriors win, Giannis dominates Bucks-Kings

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In Maryland dial one eight seven seven eight Hope n Y. Or text Hope n Y to four six seven three six nine in New York. Dial one eight hundred five two two forty seven hundred in Wyoming, or visit www dot one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by Fan Duel here at the volume Happy Tuesday, everybody. We are live on AMP. Don't forget if you're watching on YouTube or listening on the podcast feeds that AMP is the very

first place that you guys can get these shows. We're just gonna hit two games from last night, the Warriors impressive win over the Suns and the Bucks impressive win over the Kings. And then at the Enda has some thoughts about the role that advanced metrics should or should not play in the MVP race. You guys could probably guess where I stand there before we get started. Subscribe to the volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore

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gonna be filling out my bracket later today. It'll be some fun. Plus, if you finish in that top five, you're gonna get some free volume swag. So celebrate the Big Dance with merch Madness all month long. All right, let's talk some basketball. So the Warriors get another impressive win at home last night. Has been a theme throughout the season. One twenty three, one twelve over the Signs. It was never really in doubt. They went up twenty

five in the first quarter. There was a brief moment there in the third quarter where the Suns worked it back to three, but then, as usually happens when that sort of dynamic takes place, the Warriors immediately took control of the game had it back up to double digits

in no time. Draymond talked a little bit about this on his show last or this morning, but like it's kind of an I've been flowing these basketball games, the better team gets out to a big leader, at least the better team on that particular night, the other team has to expend a ton of energy to get back into the game, and the other in the team that's in front probably let their foot off the gas a little bit, and then when things start to enter a danger zone, the team locks back in and the team

that came from behind gets fatigued a little bit, and then we kind of get back to where we were at the beginning. Clay Thompson really set the tone at the beginning of this game. He at eighteen points just in his first shift. I thought one of the biggest dynamics that led to Clay thoms because Clay Thompson got good looks to start this game. All four of his threes that he made in his first shift were on defensive mistakes from Phoenix. And you know, it started with

miscommunications primarily between Joshua Cog and Clay Thompson. They had excuse me, josh Cog and Devin Booker. Booker was on Clay, josh Cogi was on Steph. And one of the things that the Warriors do really well to confuse teams is they will run interchanges that lead into interchanges, and that really punishes teams that like to switch. Now, we talked about this a lot when we were talking about the

Lakers and the rap right. So like the Raptors were hugging up on Anthony Davis and not switching that screen, but they were switching everything before. So it puts the switching defenders in a complicated position because if they have to navigate a switch immediately before the ball screen, they're out of position for that ball screen. And that was happening a lot in the off ball actions with Klay

Thompson in this game. So imagine this. I'm Josh Akogi and I'm guarding Steph Curry, and I'm preparing to deal with Steph Curry as he's running around all these actions. Now as Steph is doing a dribble handoff with Clay, I'm tied up with Steph. Now, Devin Booker's screaming at me, switch, switch, switch, because Clay is coming off this dribble handoff. Now I'm suddenly on Clay and Clay is immediately coming off of

a dribble handoff from Kevon Looney. Now, normally, if it's a dribble handoff, and I'm guarding Clay and Kevon Looney is the screener. I'm in either a lock and trail position or a top lock position, a top block position.

I'm trying to refuse Klay Thompson's ability to use the screen, so I'm going to position myself between Clay and Kevan Luney and try to force him to cut backdoor where I'm probably gonna have help because Kevan Luney's not a shooter, so the screen defender is probably gonna be further back right. But in that position, I need to be in position between Clay in the screen, or if I'm in a

lock in trail position, I'm in the exact opposite. I'm positioning myself right behind Clay and I'm trying to stay as close to him as possible so that when he's flying off of that screen, he doesn't get separation from me, and then I can chase him over the top and funnel him into help in the paint. But in order to lock in trail or top lock, I need to be in position first, and if I'm out of position, I'm not going to have much of a chance to do my job. In either of those situations. So what

was so smart about what the Warriors were doing? And Clay got threes on three of this specific type of action in that first shift. If I am guarding another player and I'm suddenly switching onto Clay, who then's going into that dribble handoff, I'm out of position. And I picked two plays like this that you guys can see that are on my Twitter feeds or go to at underscore Jason lt a clip two of these. You guys

can see what I'm talking about. But you'll see josh Akogi gets suddenly switched on to Clay and then be hopelessly out of position to chase him over that following screen. You have to be so so sharp with the Warriors in their offball actions and be so prepped for that switch and be ready and in position for that next action to have any chance. And there were times where Booker wanted to switch, but there Josha Cogi didn't hear him or they didn't communicate well, and then Booker was

out of position. And then there were plays where they did switch and Joshua Cogi was out of position. There was even on the I think it was the fourth three of Clay's first shift. It was a transition play, and Booker just was Booker's It's in transition, Clay's running through, Booker's kind of trailing him underneath the basket, and I think it was Draymond who ends up setting the pick and Booker just kind of gives up on it and doesn't even chase Clay out there. He gets a wide

open three. In order to deal with the blender that Golden State puts you in, you have to be oh sharp defensively. And you know, we've talked a lot about how I think that the biggest weakness for the Suns with the trade they made for Kevin Durant is their point of attack defense. And point of attack defense is not just pick and roll defense. It's also all chasing shooters around. It's locking and trailing, it's top locking, it's

chasing guards over ball screens. There's a bunch of responsibilities that come to point of attack defense and the point of attack guys. For the Suns last night, we're not ready for the challenge. They got punched right in the mouth eighteen points by Claying his first shift. Then once he got going with the off ball stuff, he had like a driving left handed layup on Devin Booker. He had a nice post up on josh Akogi where he took a drop step towards the baseline and hit a

nice bank shot. He just completely destroyed the Suns in the first shift and it completely changed the dynamic of the game from the start, and it was basically over at that point. You're not coming back to beat the Warriors. When you're down twenty five in the first quarter in Chase Center, it's a done deal at that point. Even when they got close, like Draymond was talking about, there was no real threat there. And I want to shout out competitiveness because you know, Clay has always had a

little thing with Devin Booker. And what I appreciate about Clay is, you know, beyond a shadow of a doubt that he's gonna come out ready to play against the Suns. And because I've talked a lot about Clay, like he's kind of a funny guy and he's portrayed as a goofball, but the dude is a savage competitor and it's one of the most un underrated things about him as a basketball player. He was the one that set the tone early in that game and was a huge driving force

throughout this whole season. Clay Thompson has been one of the guys that has kept the ship afloat despite some unfortunate circumstances. And then when he checked out, Gold State was up fourteen and Steph took over from there and they started running the same kind of stuff with Jordan Pool and Steph Curry, and they had a same kind of miscommunication that took place between Devin Booker and Damian Lee, and Steph got a wide open three and then Steph

hit a nasty step back on Damian Lee. You know, Steph kind of smelled blood in the water at that point and went for the kill because like, up fourteen, that's manageable. Clay got you to fourteen, then Stephed over got you up to twenty five. That when the game was really over. And then I was really impressed with Jordan Poole because when Phoenix made their run and got it back to within two or three points there in the third quarter, Jordan Poole made two massive plays that

got them back up to their big advantage. He had a nice driving left handed layup where he initiated contact and went up strong on the left side of the rim. He had a nasty step back three. He was a big part of them getting that lead back up to where it was comfortable. And you know, Jordan Pool. A lot of Warriors fans have been critical of Jordan Pool over the last couple of months, and I haven't talked

a ton about him. And one of the main reasons why is I'm a big believer in slotting and the reality of Jordan Pool is he's a flawed basketball player. Like offensively he's superhelter skelter. He kind of is like a controlled chaos, like he plays out of control a lot, and defensively he's very limited. Right, that kind of thing doesn't matter as much when the Warriors are whole because usually he's the only weak defensive link on the floor and the team can cover for him on offense. They

kind of rain him in a little bit. With the overall collective basketball i Q on the floor, that gets him to make better decisions and he's attacking with more of an advantage. It all kind of works. But when guys are out of the lineup, that's where it's like, suddenly he's in lineups with lesser defensive personnel, his defensive shortcomings become a bigger deal. He's playing in lineups with lower basketball IQ. Suddenly his decision making becomes a bigger deal. Right,

That helter skelter thing becomes a bigger deal. That inconsistency thing becomes a bigger deal. The way that Jordan Poole's gain is shaped actually makes a lot of sense when the Warriors are whole, and makes less sense when they're dealing with personnel limitations. And so, you know, the big three, Clay Thompson, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green were completely locked in in this game, and I think that's a big part of what made Jordan Poole's job easier and would

allowed him to impact the game well. From there, every Warrior played well. It seemed like I thought Draymond Green was frightening defensively in his first shift. You can always tell when Draymond's locked in defensively when he's closing out to three point shooters with that reckless abandon. He's got ridiculously long arms. It's one of his best physical attributes. And when you see him sprint out to a three point shooter in the corner and he reaches that arm up.

It's ridiculous how much he can bother shooters even when he seems like he's out of position. Jamichael Green had a really nice burst there in the light second late first quarter, a slipped ball screen where he got a lay up, and then on the very next possession he jumped a passing lane and got a dunk. He was great. He's been ever since he came back from injury. He's been awesome off the bench. I thought Andrea Guidala was really good again. And what's interesting with Andrea Gudala hasn't

always been pretty since he came back. Like he's had some nasty misses from threes from three, and he's been a little bit of a liability there, and he's committed some fouls you know, where he's gotten out of position defensively, But for the most part, he's been really good, and just in the little things in the game, he's such

a connective tissue piece for them offensively. You know, there's a play in this game where Jamichael Green like kind of caught on the right bass line and Andrea Gudalac cut out of the week side corner, and so Michael Green pushed it to Andre, and Andre through like a touch pass just right on the catch that hit Moses Moody in stride for a nasty dunk in traffic. And I'm sitting there thinking, I'm like, I'm like, that's just a high basketball IQ, connective tissue type of piece play

that makes everything work. And I think he's been a good off ball defender for the Warriors since he came back, and I think it's shown him plus minus in in his minute since returning. He's been plus seventeen overall. Even in the three losses that they had, he was a positive in his shifts in two of those three games. Like I think, I think his basketball IQ and both offensively and defensively have made him an impactful player for the Warriors, even despite him still working his way kind

of back into his shape. And and you know, they may not even end up needing him when they to the postseason, if Gary Payton's healthy and if Andrew Wiggins is healthy. But I still think it's good to have him as an option out there just because he's not going to be scared. He's gonna know where to be, He's gonna know how to impact the game in his own way. It was a really impressive, dominant win for

Golden State. They're heading on the road for five games, so they're gonna have to figure out a way to translate this to the road at Draymond talked about it on this podcast. There's been a lot of talk, but they haven't been able to translate it yet. So this is gonna be a good way for us to learn. I think their first game is the Clippers. That's gonna

be a tough one. There's a they have a lot of perimeter size, which is a specific weakness for the Warriors with Andrew Wiggins out, so that's gonna be a challenge. But they're gonna have what it takes and I think they'll find a way. I think you'll see Draymond Green guard Russell Westbrook again and play off of him. It's gonna be a good challenge. This road trip is going

to be an interesting one for the Warriors. And I haven't looked at the schedule to see exactly who they play yet, so I could be wrong about the Clippers first, but I think I heard Draymond mentioned that in his podcast. All right, let's move on to oh really quickly. Just on the Sun's You know, I don't want to think too much about them because they don't have Kevin Durant, but like the reality is, their guards have to defend better.

There's a reasonable chance that it could be the Suns and Warriors that play in the four or five matchup this year and they're gonna lose that series. If you do not play better defensively in the backcourt. You have to be prepared for Golden State's blender. They're gonna have to sharpen some things up, all right, Milwaukee, Sacramento. This was just an absolute master class from Jannis. Every once in a while, there are these games where you see a player reach a height that no one else really

can reach. I used to see this a lot with Lebron when he was younger, or like Kobe Bryant back in the early two in the mid two thousand and tens, where it's like, oh, yeah, like that guy's just better, you know what I mean. And this, the first half of this game was a great example. Sacramento came out and through a great punch in this game. And we're not going to talk a ton of Kings today because

we talked ton of Kings yesterday. But like like Demonis Sabonis came out just attacking brook Lopez, even though he's given up a lot of size there, just initiating contact and finishing around the rim. Kevin Hurder came out guns blazing. Keegan Murray came out guns blazing. Darren Fox was fantastic in the second half. They offensively, to the King's credit,

everything they did worked pretty well against Milwaukee. You know, obviously their defense was a big problem to give up eighty points in the second half, but they came out and punched Milwaukee in the mouth with a great offensive punch in the first half, and on the other end of the floor, everybody for Milwaukee was off except for Jannis.

Joannis was had an outstanding playmaking game. He only had four assists, but I haven't looked up his potential assists, but he probably had ten to fifteen potential assists because guys just couldn't make shots. Though Bucks started like one for ten from three, the only guy to make a three in that first ten threes was Jannis and then

he was destroying Harrison Barnes in the post. He was destroying Harrison Barnes on the offensive glass He hit like a pull up mid range jump shot, just had everything going, completely dominated the game on both ends of the floor. It was just an absolute masterclass from Jannis and a great example of like the level that he can get to when he really hits the jets in the problem that that presents for other teams. We'll talk a little

bit about that more here in a little bit. Chris Middleton, like he was one of the guys who was getting those wide open threes from Jannis in the first half, just could not make them. Finally hit a shot there, I believe in the mid second quarter, but I think he only hit one shot in the first half. Finally in the second half he broke through and got some really good spot up looks from Jannis and Drew Holiday.

But you know, the big thing that you can tell when when Chris really has it going is that pull up transition three. That's kind of like his bread and butter. When Chris is really feeling good and in rhythm, he'll just bring the ball up the floor, get the ball into his left hand, high hesitation, rise up into that transition three while the defender's back pedaling. He hit one of those early in the third quarter, and it was like that was it. It was like he clicked into gear.

He hit his he hit like a nice relocation like pump, fake and sidestep three d in the left corner. He had a kick out three from Yannis on a nice drive on the left wing. Then he started going to work in the post, like spinning off of guys, and he had a big and one in the fourth quarter when the game was close to excuse me, pump, bake and draw the contact and rise up and knock down

the shot. He's just so incredibly important to the high level half court offense element to the Bucks that can be a little bit of an issue for them in specific matchups, not really for the Kings, but in some

specific matchups. I don't think it was a coincidence that the Bucks went for eighty points in the second half of this game when they when they really have it going with their spot up shooting alongside a locked in Jannis Antenna Kumbo, they're really difficult to guard, and way too often when we're talking about Yannis, we talked about him as an offensive player who's just a bullyball player who can't do much on the offensive end of the four skill wise, compared to his peers, and that just

couldn't be further from the truth. The dude is at like he is a much better playmaker than Kevin Durant. He's a much better playmaker than Jason Tatum. He's a much better playmaker than Paul George or Kawhi Leonard of all those guys who are those big forwards at that position, other than maybe Lebron, He's the best passer. That's a huge part of his game that goes underrated, and it just comes from reps year after year of him going against walled up defenses that are trying to seal him

off from the paint. He's just figured that part of his game out, and you know, when you kind of put it all together, that's why I have the bucks right now is the safest bet to win the title. At this point, that could change. We're gonna reapproach it in mid April. You know, if teams are healthy. I'll have to reconsider it certain teams right but right now, I think they're the safest bet. Jannis is the best player in the world. He's the best defensive player in

the world. He's a top five offensive player in the world, and his game translates to the playoffs at an extremely high level. All of that is fact. Chris Middleton is the high level shot making piece and the spot up piece that was severely missing him and Joe Ingles, although Joe Ingles didn't play last night dealing with some injury management. But you know, Chris has had a rough year. He's been in and out the lineup with injuries, hasn't looked

like himself. But he's peaking, it seems like at the right time. Obviously, we'll see if last night was a fluke or if he can continue that here down the stretch. But if he can add just that little bit of high level shot making, and if he can add that high level spot up shooting that they're missing, that's gonna be just a game changer. That was the difference in that Boston Celtics series last year. They just couldn't. It

was a lot of Wesley Matthews. It was a lot of Grayson Allen, It's a lot of Bobby Portis, a lot of guys that were just a little bit inconsistent knocking down those kickout threes, and this year it's gonna be different. Javon Carter is a Miles better spot up shooter than he was last year. He couldn't play last year because Bud didn't trust him to knock down shots. He's gonna get those minutes this year. He's a much better point of attack defender than guys like Grayson Allen

or Pat Conatson. But Pat Countitton and Grayson Allen both do their jobs. They're perfectly fine rotation players for a playoff team. Obviously, you know Jay Crowder is an option for them, is that bigger, physical forward to throw at certain teams. Joe Ingles didn't play. He can run second side action as an excellent passer, is a great spot up shooter. Drew Holliday one of the best point of

attack defenders in the league. I get a little frustrated with him offensively sometimes because he takes such difficult shots seemingly unnecessary, but there are other nights when that can be a ceiling raiser for this team when he's making them right. So like, really, when I look at it, they have they have every bit as high a defensive ceiling as anybody in the team, except for maybe Boston, just because Boston has a little bit more wing athleticism.

But even then, I would argue in just a different archetype of defense that Milwaukee's defense is every bit as good. And then on the offensive end of the floor, when they have Jannis surrounded by that level of offensive skill and Chris Middleton playing at that level, they're not going to be that far behind the teams like Boston. They're not gonna be that far behind. They're not gonna be that far behind the teams in the Western Conference, especially

if Jannis is playing at this level. So, I mean, I think they're the safest bet to win the title. They We'll see what happens over the course of the next month or so if we need to adjust that. But man, I think i'd take them defensively and offensively over Boston right now. I'd have to think about it more. But in Boston lost another tough one in Houston last night. Boston is going like this, in Milwaukee's going like this.

It's it's it's just I think I think it'd be foolish to bet on anybody else out of East right now. All right, before we call it today, I want to talk a little bit about the MVP in advanced metrics. So this was a debate that I had with Matt Moore from the Action Network the other day, and then Draymond actually brought it up a little bit, not the advanced metrics part, but brought up the MVP debate again

today and it got me thinking. So Chris Mannix, one of our co workers here at the Volume, said that him and Nick Wright had a debate over Yoka chimbid and they talked a little bit about the advanced metrics thing. And I want to be clear, like, I'm in the minority here. I do not have a vote. Obviously I hope to one day, but I do not have a vote. And the people that do, the majority of them, do factor in advanced metrics. I completely disagree with that. There's

a couple of reasons why. First of all, when it comes to advanced metrics, I just find them to be useless data. The comparison that I made was the zestimate on Zillo. I worked in real estate before I did this. It was the flexible job that I could do to make money while I was trying to pursue this career. And you know, all the time I get asked by listing clients like, oh, but my estimate said this, you know, and this estimate was just a basic algorithm that would

take basically average sales prices from the neighborhood. Right. But the reality is of real estate is no two houses are alike unless you're in like real track home areas. Most houses are different, especially in Arizona because Arizona is kind of more spaced out. There's big pieces of dirt, right, Like like my first home was on almost an acre. That was my first home, like an inexpensive home that

was on literally like two thirds of an acre. Right, You're not getting that in other areas, So like different, every lot is different. What kind of views do you have? Pool? Pool is a big thing in Arizona because how hot it is. Like the houses are. There's there's old slop bought combs that are six from the nineteen sixties, and then there's these brand new stick and stucco homes from

the early two thousands. Like they're also different. So like I would just tell my clients like, this estimate means nothing. I have to run detailed comps of all these different things that are similar to your home in order to find a realistic valuation. So like what I would tell them is like this estimate's fun it's fun to look at, but the reality is is it doesn't actually mean anything when it pertains to what your house is actually worth and what someone's willing to pay. That's the way I

look at advanced metrics. They're fun, you know, like it's cool looking to a player efficiency rating or raptor you know, ESPN real plus minus or any of these catchall metrics. But the reality is is the game of basketball is so much more complicated than that, and you cannot hope to assign a player's basketball value to a number. I think it's I think it's blasphemous to the game of basketball. And you know what was funny is is Matt More His point was like his point was like, you can't

trust your eyes. Your eyes will deceive you. You need concrete data. And my counterpoint to him was, I don't view that as concrete data. I agree that eyes are flawed, there's no doubt, like I make mistakes with my analysis all the time. That's big part why I read the comments. You guys do a good job providing different perspectives. If you're a fan of the Sacramento Kings, you watch more Kings games than me. I might watch forty to forty

five Kings games a year. You're gonna watch eighty two Kings games every single year, so you're obviously, like, obviously, the eye test is a flawed concept, but so is the data, and I think that it's a lost cause you are never going to be able to assign basketball to a single number. I still believe in data, you guys know, I look at data for you know, single play types, like I like to look at pick and roll points per possession, post up points per possession, lation

points per possession. I like to look at defensive ratings, offensive ratings, all line up data, but all of those are directly associated to the scoreboard on a per possession basis,

so they're much more accurate. But even those aren't one hundred percent accurate, because if a guy's got if you know, a player that's on a team that has tons of shooting, his pick and roll points per possession is going to be swayed by the fact that he's got three great spot up shooters off of him, Whereas you know, like Lebron, the work he was doing in pick and roll earlier in the season, surrounded by a bunch of garbage shooters

like it's different for him. So even the data I look at is not perfect, and I'll acknowledge that here. But like the single metrics, the catch all metrics, they are hopeless and their endeavor to try to capture the game of basketball. So my thing is, like what you're considering to be concrete data, I don't consider to be concrete data. And I'm okay with the fact that we can never some basketball up to an exact science. I'm good with that. I love the organic nature of basketball games.

I love that you can be the better team for one hundred possessions, but if you don't execute on two possessions at the end of the game, you can lose. I love those details about the game. And what I've always said is the counter to my eye test mistake, the mistakes that I might make with the eye test,

is that we have a huge voter pool. Like, if I've got one hundred people that are watching the games with their eyes and voting based on their eyes, it's gonna average out to something that's closest to the truth. And I would much rather fail with my eyes trying to perceive the realness of the game of basketball than to point to an algorithm and let them do the work for me, not to mention like there are so many Like, let's break it down from a math perspective.

What is an advanced metric. It's basically an equation with variables and you're plugging in the variables and you're getting out a result. Right, Maybe that's points per game. Maybe that's your plus minus waited for like they're super complicated now like these, If you look at the formula for like raptor, it's like, it's ridiculous the amount of detail that they put into it. They're trying, they're failing, but

they're trying. But here's the thing. Where is the variable for a player's ability to move without the basketball to relocate? Where's the variable for a guy who sets better screens than his opponent. Where is the variable for the guy who runs his lane in transition every time and doesn't get the ball that occupies defenders. That's just like four examples.

If I really thought about it, made a list, I could probably make an like fifty or sixty different basketball skill set things that are literally impossible to measure statistically, And because of that, it will never be possible to capture the game of basketball in a single metric. So I know I'm in the minority. I know they disagree.

But if if when I become a voter, if if it happens, if I'm lucky enough, if I'm blessed enough to become a voter on NBA Awards, I will do my very best to watch the games and come up with what I believe is my best guests who deserves what. And I will not allow myself to you to allow to use a flawed metric to cheat the work. And I'd rather fail with my eyes than fail by being lazy. And I know that I'm not calling those people lazy.

Those people also watch the games, but I just think like they actually factor that stuff in a huge part. A huge part of why Yokich is number one in MVP voting is because of the the advantage he has in the advant metrics. And I just don't think that that's good process. So again, that's just my that's just my two cents on it's a lot more complicated. You guys know how I feel about MVP. I'm a big thirds guy, Like, who's the best player in the world is a third of it? Who's the best player in

the best team is a third of it. Who's the most valuable is the third of it. That's kind of the way I break it down. That's just my thing. Everyone's got a different opinion on it. I who's the best player in the world. Part is where I factor in postseason success. I believe postseason success shouldn't matter. Yes, it's a regular season award, but we're in pursuit of Hilarry O'Brien. That's the goal. So like I think that stuff matters. All right, I'm off my soapbox. Um, that's

all I have for tonight. We're gonna be back tomorrow morning. Guys. We're gonna have a bunch of games to talk tonight. I'm gonna try to get into some more Eastern Conference teams tomorrow as well. As always, I sincerely appreciate your sport now, so you guys tomorrow. Ali