Hoops Tonight - State of the Warriors with Sam Esfandiari

here in Tucson, Arizona. I'm a little skeptical about them on the offensive end of the floor, but they looked really good on defense again last night against Kansas, so I'll probably be betting on them this time around.

Bonus bets expire one hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see DKG dot co slash audio. All right, wellcome to hoops tonight. You're at the volume. Hay Friday, everybody. I hope all of you guys have had a great week. We have a very special guest today, my friend Sam's Fondiari, who covers the Warriors with the Light Years podcast. They the Warriors

have played twenty games with Jimmy Butler. They have a little bit of a break here before they play against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight and I'm expecting Steph Curry to make his return. But I thought it was a great time for us to just kind of zoom out and take a look at the early returns of Jimmy.

And then last night they just had it. They had the verb and you said to me, and it's like you and I every time we've talked about the game, we've always been just drawn to just competitiveness and competitors and that nasty streak, And like you were, like, you know what, I got handed to the to the Heat. They wanted it like they they they clearly this meant something to them, and they went after they got it done.

It's a real thing. Even if I was wondering if it was a real thing after they went on a losing streak when they lost Jimmy, It's still a real thing. Kat Riley is a Hall of Famer for a reason.

sentimental attachment to anything. And so rooting for Luka doncicch like, actually rooting for Luka Doncicic has given me such a unique experience, like learning about him as a basketball player. I think, I think truly rooting for a player you just learn so much. And so you've I've been truly rooting for Jimmy Butler. Now for twenty games. What has that experience been like? What have you been surprised by

what have you really loved about his game? Just talk a little bit about what that's been like.

playoff modes, so I felt like I knew him. But to your point, it's just not the same as when you're watching every game opening tip to the end, and so the things that jump out to me are like I thought he would be a good fit on the Warriors because there's such a premium on IQ and ball movement in passing, and it's gone like five levels above

what I thought it would be. I thought there'd also be a little friction because he's traditionally been a little of an ISO player and the Warriors are traditionally not that type of team, and it's been the complete opposite. I mean, he's like essentially playing like Andrea Gudala, but with the ability to get to the rim and the free throw line. So that's been surprising. Other than that, I don't know that the other aspects of it have

necessarily been that surprising. We've gone through kind of the ebbs and flow of how he asserts himself. He's an interesting player in the fact that he has a superstar impact on the game, Like when you look at all the advanced metrics, he always grades out as one of the ten to fifteen best players just in terms of

impacting winning, But he's not really an offensive superstar. You think of those playoff moments where he scored forty plus and you think he's more of kind of your traditional I'm gonna go get a bucket type of guy, and that's been the thing that watching him more, it's like, yeah, there'll be moments he does it, but that's really not his game at all. So I guess that's kind of been the other surprising thing.

this phase of his career. You sent me some numbers earlier, and we're gonna talk about it with uh with Jonathan Kaminga here in a little bit, But just some of the difference and on off numbers between him with kaminga versus a guy like Gie Santos, where it's like crisp quick decision making that all fits within the flow of what they do in their five out offense, versus a guy that like has more of a specific lane that he thrives in and if things are operating in that lane,

then he looks super impactful. But when it gets outside of that, he can struggle. And like I think with Jimmy's versatility, there is a downside, and I think we saw a little bit of it last night in the sense that, like, if you with that without Steph, if he's entirely out of the picture because he's injured, you're not gonna get twenty five and eight from him every night. That's not necessarily a level he can get to any more. But within within the context of Steph being available, he's

more than capable of lifting these bench units. And they've been really good this year with Steph off the floor with Jimmy on like, they've been astonishingly good. I want to say the net rating is almost plus twenty per

one hundred possessions. They're killing teams. In that context, it is a little bit of a different journey, and I think there's some like if I was playing Devil's advocate on the trade, I would say, over the course of the rest of this year and next year, when Steph misses time, this team is going to look rough because of the fact that Jimmy is not necessarily the guy

that can scale up in that specific ability. But ultimately that doesn't matter because this team isn't accomplishing anything unless Steph is healthy and available anyway, and in that context, his versatility is a superstar trade and it does pull everything together. You mentioned the Andre Gudala piece to me, where you see so much of that is just like his nose for the ball and his ability to make reads in screening situations, when to slip or when to curl,

when to do all these little different things. One of the things from watching Jimmy very closely with the Warriors that stood out to me is he's one of the best people in the league at high pointing the basketball. So like in a lot of the switching that teams use against Golden State, he'll end up with these like inside seals and they'll float the ball up and he

just gets it every damn time. And that has allowed him to kind of like manufacture pressure on the rim off the ball, which has been a big part of his like spacing alongside of Steph. And so think like I think the part that is you mentioned it is pressure to the rim, and that's really the key his superstar trait offensively that he's bringing, and it's coming through all these different things as a read and react player,

Ceiling posting, ISOs, all that kind of stuff. He applies real consistent night to night rim pressure next to Steph, and that is unlocking a lot of that offensive upside.

the opposite. And that was probably Draymond Green's like best defensive game of the year. He took Jannis completely out of it. And the first thing Draymond said in postgame is it's easier for me to do that and ignore help obligations when I have someone like Jimmy, who you know, can just say I got you, I'll take care of that.

You just you meet him in half court, you take them one on one, that sort of defensive stuff, and that's something they've been missing for literally since they had you know, Andre Goodal or Andrew Bogan and just like this, you know, kind of embarrassment of riches and terms of

like high IQ defenders. They finally have someone who can organize them and get them going in addition to Draymond, and so yeah, to your point, like he does fit exactly what the Warriors need and fits exactly perfectly next to Steph and Draymond on both sides of the ball. Honestly, now, it puts a lot of pressure on the other pieces around them, because I like the way that three man

construct works. But I'm also not naive to the fact that there are certain weaknesses that need to be masked by younger legs, by shooting, by defense, some other things there. And that's kind of really where my focus in the Warrior season is for the rest of the way.

a like a known commodity to me. You know, I remember when you're talking about the defense the I remember a lot of that has tense he surrounding this deal with Andrew Wiggins, and part of the reason why it was like when they won the title, it was Andrew Wiggins who was picking up Luca full court and applying all that ball pressure. It was Andrew Wiggins who was picking up Jason Tatum full court and playing him into the tough series that he had in the NBA Finals.

And like, I think there's a certain amount of like Jimmy's not gonna be as good as Andrew at just guarding the other team's best player every night. But I think there's two elements to that that have kind of allowed it to work anyway. One Moody's been more ready

for that than that. I think people realized, like you talked about this a lot in the time leading up to the trade, and you were spot on on this, and like again, like there's a there was a lot of negativity surrounding the Jimmy trade leading up to it, and you were consistent, he's Jimmy fucking Butler. Just go get him and we figure out the rest later. And one of the things that you kept talking about at

the time was we need to clarify the rotation. And it has an a lot of ways clarified the rotation because Moses Moody has stepped into that role and it's been consistent. He hasn't had to worry about getting his minutes janked with he's had this role every single night.

He's taking that specific responsibility. And where Jimmy is better than Andrew Wiggins on the defensive end of the floor is playmaking just all of these like little things as like peeling off and gambling and like making plays in passing lanes where he's a little bit more of an instinctual defensive playmaker than Andrew Wiggins. And the bottom line is, statistically, the defense has been better. They've been the second best defense in the league over a twenty one game span.

Now that's a fourth of the season, and so I think that's relatively undeniable at this point. I want to talk about these role players though for a minute, because I agree with you, like we when we know what Steph, Jimmy and Draymond are. Let's start really quickly before we get into like kaminga. Are you happy and confident in Pods and Moody as the two other guys in that lineup.

the ball. He's had some excellent games against like Jalen Brunson, for example, who could be a very tough cover and kind of your quit essential like, oh, if you can't guard the ball, he's going to dice you up, right, like that type of guy and then ability to hit shots. Because they're young players, they're a little consistent as well at that and that's for me, one of the bigger concerns that the Warriors is shot making outside of Steph Curry Moses Moody is I want to say, a thirty

eight percent three point shooter on the season. The shot looks pretty, it looks like it's going in every time, but you know, end of the day, he's not Klay Thompson. So and very few players are, to be fair, but it's like it is very much the young player thing where it's four for six one night, zero for six the next night, and that type of stuff in the playoffs could be really scary, particularly with how much the three point shot is, you know, important in a playoff context.

And let's be honest, like how little shooting from the outside they're gonna get from Draymond and Jimmy. I know Draymond's been a better three point shooter last year and a half, but he's probably not gonna hit five threes in a game. He's probably not gonna take ten threes. Most of his threes are kind of you know, end of shot clock bailout possession type of of threes. So there's a lot of pressure on Moses Moody to fill.

I don't want to say the role Klay Thompson phil because that's just unrealistic, but like to fill the role that someone like a Harrison Barnes or Andrew Wiggins did where if they're left alone in the corner, they hit it. You know, if they're left you know, if you're if you're sending two at the ball because you have Steph Curry, Draymond's getting downhill, then you have a man shading towards towards Jimmy someone's open, not someone who's open will be

Moses Moody or Brandon Pajemski. And this applies actually even more so for Pods. He just does more things than shoot the ball. They have to be able to hit those shots. So that's kind of my number one worry with them. But to your point on the defensive side, I actually feel pretty comfortable with this team if they have a healthy version of Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler being able to get those young guys in position to succeed, and I think they're ready for the moment.

completely uncontested threes in crunch time. They make them both and it ends up being a big part of how they win. And like there's a certain amount of like to your point, Like, even though Andre Gudala never had the reputation of being like this knockdown shooter, it always felt like he made the big ones that he needed to make in that corner.

same argument for some other teams around the league. I like, really, I think the only team you the only time I feel confident it is just going to make shots if they're open, as Boston like, they're gonna make shots, yeah, if they're open. But like I could see I see Oklahoma City potentially losing a playoff series missing threes. I see with like mediocre shooters getting left open. I see Denver potentially losing a series with the mediocre players hitting threes.

The Lakers are another team that can put together groups with Dorian Finney, Smith and Rui where all five guys are shooters. But even then, it's like Austin Reeves is not the best catch and shoot guy in the world. Like there's a version of it where he can go cold.

And so I think there's a certain amount of it where it's like, I think we can't overlook the fact that they're going to be a great defense that gets out in transition and that has Steph Curry and that yes, these guys are gonna have to knock down shots, but that's not necessarily a death sentence, if that makes sense. Now, as we go deeper into the bench, the Jonathan Camena experience I think has been uneven. I thought he was really good in his first game back. What was that Sacramento?

If I remember correctly, I think it was He's really good in that game where everything was with an advantage, everything was towards the rim, everything was geared towards like playing in the flow. But one of the big difference difference is like when you sent me the numbers this morning with him versus Gie Santos, to me, like Jonathan Kaminga has the ability to make certain reads, particularly as

a cutter. When he sees like a lane open up, he'll run to the front of the rim, and I think there is some value in that as a play finisher. But every other type of read and react situation on the court, he sorely lacks behind his teammates, and I think like there's a certain lack of ceiling with a guy like Gi Santo's, but there's a certain predictability as a catch and shoot guy and as a guy who crashes the offensive glass every time and as a guy

who makes decisions in read and reacts situations and so like. Ultimately, I think there's a version of this where Jonathan Kminga's role could shrink considerably when they get into the postseason. How have you felt about their early returns with cominga alongside Jimmy and the crew, and how he fits both in the short and long term.

a hyperactive defender that has not necessarily shown up. But we've seen tons of young wings with his physical profile who look lost defensively, and then around year five or six, it just clicks. Andrew Wiggins probably the most obvious example. He went from being kind of a you know, having a terrible reputation defensively in Minnesota to almost making, you know, an All NBA defensive teams, right, So it happens all the time on that end. You can't discount the physical tools.

Now in the short term, month far less optimistic because to your point, we're ten games away from the playoffs, and you know, they don't have fifty games for him to figure it out. And the thing that pops to me when I watch him is he wants to occupy all the same spots on the floor that Jimmy Butler is, but Jimmy's better at him at everything, and so he

hasn't figured out how to adapt to that. And because he's a young player, and to your point, I don't want to say feel is lacking, but he's just far less mature mentally in terms of reading the game than the other guys on the team. You know, probably the biggest advantage the Warriors have going into a playoff series is Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond will be a step ahead of almost every one of their opponents. That those are three of the five to seven smartest players in the NBA.

What they lack in foot speed, they make up for a mental processing speed. So it means the other two guys have to know how to play off of that and kuminga combination of both being young and you know, maybe not as developed as the Warriors would have liked him to be in here for and let's just be realistic, he missed two plus months with an injury and he's trying to get integrated into a brand new team. That puts him in a really rough position. Particularly since he's

not a shooter. You can't plug him in to Moses Moody's role where you know, Moses Moody offensively is essentially just gonna be, you know, standing in the corner. Most actions are finding him camping out in the weak side corner that if they help off of him, he gets a wide open three. That's not going to work for Kuminga.

So to your point, if he can read the game at the speed the Warriors like to play, you could actually take advantage of them as a cutter, take advantage of the athleticism, the ball move stuff we've seen Warriors teams do for a decade. Right where you're just like, how does honestly GP two master this? Right? He can't really shoot the ball, I know, shoot the ball well now,

but nobody guards him like he's a shooter. But he knows exactly how to play off of Stephan Draimon, and he always seems to find himself, you know, cutting baseline for a wide open layup or dunk. In theory, that's how Kumenga can thrive with this team. It just hasn't come to fruition. And I mean, maybe I'm a pessimist about it, but like ten games, and these are not

games that they can just give him space either. They're like a half game out of being in the play in, so they need to treat every game like it's a real game, which leads to scenarios like the Atlanta game where he was playing poorly and he did not play more than four myths in the second half. How is he going to figure it out if he only plays four miss in the second half. But at the same time, the Warriors have to win games, so he's just I don't see how this solves itself in the short term.

You're gonna get to do your thing for extended stretches of the game, have a long leash, get to make mistakes, and it radically flipped to now you're coming back. There's no way you have a starting spot. The only version of this where you contribute to the team is where you become this read and react player. And like I think, you know, I think you have to be good at one of two things to be a good offensive player

around Steph, Jimmy and Raymond. You either have to be an excellent shooter or an excellent read and react player, and he's neither, and that just puts him into a really tough position accentuating his game. Because to your point about occupying all the same spots on the floor, your value as a basketball player is unique to your team. It has nothing to do with what your talents are

in a vacuum. It's all theoretical in a vacuum on your team, it's what you can do within that group, and there's no version of this where he's going to be playing in the playoffs with neither of Jimmy or stuff on the floor, meaning the game is going to have to be predicated with him playing off of those guys, and it's just gonna be like again, when Jimmy has had success offensively without Steph, it's been this whirling dervish

of these read and react guys, relocating, cutting, screening, slipping, all this kind of stuff around him, and that part has worked, but it's just not gonna work that way like in the postseason context when Jonathan Kaming is out there, He's not gonna be able to have the same kinds of opportunities he did before the deadline, And so it's just difficult, and honestly, I do feel bad for him, and like I do wonder what this does look like in the big picture, because Steph talked about it the

other day, it seems to me like there's been an organizational commitment that they're trying this next year too, right, so it seems like this is a two year window, like we're going for it, We're gonna try to make this happen, and like you talk about ten games I don't necessarily see a version of this where he blossoms into that player next year either, And so I think this could be a challenging stretch for Jonathan in his career, and I'm really curious just to see how he adapts

to it, because before the deadline he had leverage in the sense that he could go to the media and be like, what the hell are we doing here? Like we're not very good? Why am I not getting an opportunity to show what I can do? Like what's the deal? Whereas like, there is this clear, obvious championship ceiling with the Warriors now, and Jonathan has to find a way to kind of conform into that and it's just difficult.

higher ceiling, right. So but he you know now that he takes care of your wing playmaker, a guy who you can run a pick and roll for and ISO operate out of the post. Those were all the best places that Kuminga was starting to find success. I don't gonna say he's found total successor that's what he was starting to develop. And he's just he's not equipped at this point to be Harrison Barnes or Andrew Wiggins, who

is who they need. Like in a perfect world, if he was ready to be the twenty fifteen Harrison Barnes who could hit open shots and knew how to play off of staff Igudala, Draymond Clay or Andrew Wiggins who's proven he could do that, and in many ways that is his ideal role. I think he would be starting games, and I know he would be closing games as that third front court player. But the SHOT's not there. He's also just a hesitant shooter. He's not three point sho

that's not really his game. And you know he's not there defensively either. He's just kind of in a rough spot. It's easier to play gis aantos because gist aantos is those things even if it's you know, with a lower ceiling.

And the truth of the matter is is as the defenses get better, those runways just don't appear very often, and it becomes about playing in tight space and it becomes about making those decisions and split second processing speed and all that kind of stuff, and it's just it's just tough. Let's get zoom out a little bit more.

last game of the season. There's a very realistic chance that will literally decide you know, the seventh seed, six, six to seven, whatever it may be. So, yeah, they have a you know what sucks about this Steph injury is Atlanta and Miami looked like easy wins with Steph Curry and they drop both of those. Like this road trip really should have been where they picked up the easy wins. You got the Pelicans tonight, you got the Spurs,

you got a reeling Grizzlies team. These are theoretically all very winnable games for the Warriors before they get into a tougher stretch of Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, Sons who have life again, and Clippers and those type of teams.

And so there's a certain amount of this that is theoretical just with what this team can or cannot do. So given that we're gonna take that and set it to the side that we all agree that a certain amount of this is conjecture. And I mean, I'm here's the thing. It's conjecture for every team in the league, but just a little bit more so for the Warriors because of the stuff that's gone down with the schedule

and with Steph's injuries. So with the amount of information that you have, how are you feeling right now in terms of your level of optimism for this team a potential playoff run.

of team they are. They have the best defense in that span. I'm not gonna say they have the best defense in the league, but I do think they have a top five defense with Jimmy Butler, and I think that will translate in the playoffs. And they've been the ninth best offense. I would actually say that's probably even a little on the high side. I think they're somewhere around the tenth to twelfth best offense in the league, and so that's the kind of team you're talking about here.

I think they can defend. They can keep themselves in most every matchup in the playoffs, and it really comes down to do they get enough shot making around Steph Curry. They've been they get a bunch of open threes for Moses Moody, for Brandon Pajemski, for Gary Payton, the second who looks reborn by the way, just overall as a player, he looks like he did during the title run, both

defensively and offensively. For Kuminga, you know he's gonna get if the shot comes around in the next month, like they will give him wide open shots because of the way that they guard the Warriors, And so yeah, my question is do they have enough shot making? And then if the shot making does not come around, the size question, because they're gonna play small. They play well small, but like Moses Moody at power forward is very small, you

know what I'm saying. Like they're playing Jimmy and Draymond and Moses Moody and Brandon Pajemski and Steph Curry. That's their best lineup right now. That's significantly smaller than their famous death lineups. Their death lineup was small because Draymond's too small to play center. But if you just accept that he's an anomaly of a human, they actually were not small. They had six seven guys with seven plus

foot wingspans all across the perimeter. In some ways, it's like the makeup that the Lakers have where you're like, okay, there's no real center here. But I would not call them a small team. They're large across the perimeter. It's just a question if they can piece meal the center position. And so you know, like Denver, Denver is gonna be a rough matchup for them because Aaron Gordon's huge for a wing and he kind of takes away that wing

advantage that they have. And then Jokic is Jokic, right, Like, those are my question marks for them, But like on the flip side, as great as Okac is now, the size isn't really as big of an issue. Okay, so he plays the same size guys. Obviously they're excellent. They had their record says it. So I don't know. I think they have a real they have a realistic chance. They do have exploitable flaws, but I think that's true of every team in the West. It's a very it's

a very good Western conference. I'm not sure there's a great team in this conference.

and they are a good defense. But with Luca, I look at them at their best as somewhere in that six to ten range as a defense, Like I don't actually think they have the level of imposition athletically that they can cause problems for teams at the level of a top five defense. I think Golden State does have

that level of defense. That level of defense, to your point, will keep you in every game, and if you're in every game, there's a certain amount of like, if this guy makes a couple of shots, we end up winning it, you know, And as long as they generate enough quality ones, they've got a good chance. I'm glad you brought up

the size. Ironically, I'm actually more worried, like I think Denver and the Lakers present different issues for Golden State with size, the Lakers with their just massive forwards that are just going to be picking on smalls all over the place in Denver with the Jokic problem. But I could also flip that around and I can go one of the most impressive teams against OKC and Boston this

year has been Golden State. They've looked good at times in those matchups and have caused them real problems before Jimmy Butler came to town. And so when I look at it, like a big part of their punchers chance is like to me, they match up well with the top teams in the league, and there's a certain amount of this like with matchups they might not have to face both Denver and LA They might not have to

face either of them. If things go a certain way, like you don't know how this could end up shaking out, like they could end up catching it.

it that way. I view them as a slight Western Conference favorite. I think that when you've got a rotation full of dudes who are twenty six and younger, they're gonna win a shit ton of games, like especially when they're talented, because they're just so young and so you know, indomitable as athletes in the regular sas.

of shot making. It just I think I think all of these teams have a certain amount of law. So, okay, we have a couple more minutes, really quick, what does this summer look like? Let's just say, because I think there's a version of this where they get their ass kicked in the first round, where it could be a little bit more complicated. But let's say that they make a run to at least the second or third round, and they put up a really good fight and they

end up losing. What does this summer look like for the Warriors in your opinion?

good next to him. He's probably back next year. Kuminga. I could see them coming away from the playoffs being like, he started figuring it out towards the end of it, and we really need his legs because Jimmy gonna miss twenty games, Steph's gonna miss twenty games, and it's just gonna be nice to have someone who can carry the load in November December those times. I could also see them being like, you know what, it's not happening. Let's see what sign and trade possibilities are out there. So

I think it's all on the table right now. I think if you were to talk to them off the record, they would probably say the same thing. Their best case scenario is Kumika figures it out because it's one less complication. It's always easier to just keep someone in house than have to go out there and try to make a deal. So I think that's I think that's the first thing

they have to figure out. From there. It's scaling the market for players who are probably under thirty, because you have an older core looking for more shot making, looking for more front court shot making. Specifically, Quinton Post has been an amazing find for them. I don't know how much he's gonna play in the playoffs, just because young big who doesn't really profile as a defender anyway. Hard to play those guys in the playoff. Finding another piece

like that, I think that's where they go. There is also the you know, insane scenario where a Supermax player becomes available and they trade Jimmy because now they have the contract to match it. I do not think that'll happen, but I do think they would do it if they could get Giannis.

take like a Miles Turner for example. Let's say like a guy like Miles Turner was available for the MLLE, which by the way, he might not be he probably won't be, or a shot creating like a perimeter ball handler type. What do you think is more important?

You're like, man, it'd be really nice to have. It'd be really nice to have like a you know, like a Lou Williams or someone like that, that type of player, Right, I do think it's more realistic for them to find like a Shake Milton or someone like that on a veteran minimum than an mL, whereas Mlee, I'm shooting for someone who's in my eight man playoff rotation. It's not someone who's spelling STEP's legs. So he plays sixty five games a year in a perfect world to get both.